lt's Flash Flood Season In Much Of the U.S. No Big Threats In Vermont - Yet

Damage from flash flooding near Hinesburg, Vermont
in July, 2024. We're now entering prime flash flood
season, and Vermonters still have some PTSD from
the floods of the last three summers. Very slight 
chance of some local flash floods Wednesday night
in Vermont, but no big threats ---yet

Summer is the season of flash floods in the United States.

Such floods can happen anytime of year, of course. But summer, with its slow moving and/or intense thunderstorms, is the prime season. 

Sunday night, a flash flood emergency was declared in and around Huntsville, Alabama, where people had to be plucked from flooded cars. Water also got into several homes. 

We're already seeing some pretty big flash floods this week.  On Monday, rain fell at a rate of up to four inches per hour around Joplin, Missouri, and some people had to be rescued from inundated cars. Fox Weather reports. Downtown Seneca, Missouri was also flooded out. 

Flash flooding was reported in Texas, too.

Overnight, severe storms prompted flash flood warnings in central Kansas, where up to 5.5 inches of rain fell and another one to two inches was expected. Parts of the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee Valley are at risk for flash floods today.  

For Wednesday night, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center added a marginal risk for flash flooding in northern New York, all but far southern Vermont and northern New Hampshire. 

The agency said very humid air and a weather disturbance cold cause some instances of local flash flooding. 

Local meteorologists and myself are not too worried about flash flooding tomorrow and tomorrow night. We could easily see some gully washer downpours, but serious flooding looks doubtful. 

Most of us will get a half inch or less of rain Wednesday through Thursday. That doesn't scream "flooding."  But, thunderstorms could dump much more than that in small, localized areas.

Still, this is Vermont, and we have a long history of flash flooding. Our steep terrain in many areas encourages water to rush out of the hills during torrential rains. Climate change has raised the stakes, as downpours in a warmer world tend to be more intense. Warmer air can hold more water. That water can get released in the right conditions. 

Those "right conditions" in Vermont led to severe, destructive and deadly summertime flash floods in 2023 and 2024. Less extensive but still severe flash floods hit parts of the Northeast Kingdom last summer.

As a result, we're all gun shy and a little bit PTSD-wracked when it comes to flash flood risks across the Green Mountain State. Tis the season to keep a close eye on weather forecasts around here, especially if it's really humid and threatening to storm. 

 

Gliding Downhill From Summer To (Briefly) Early Spring. How Rare Is Mountain Snow In Late May?

It can snow this late in the season on New England's 
mountaintops. Photo is of eight inches of snow atop
Mount Washington, New Hampshire, June 11, 2023

 Tuesday was a classic summer day. Yes, it's still May but work with me here. Highs in the 80s, sunshine and a slight haze really made me think of July. 

Soon enough, we'll think it's March again.

The forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday. Today will be another sunny one, but slightly cooler with highs in the 70s to low 80s. 

We start to really feel the cool air tomorrow as highs only reach the 60s.  The cold air aloft will bring us a slight chance of light showers.  Friday will be cooler yet as the showers arrive in earnest in the afternoon. 

The core of the cold air - a bowling ball of frigidity from near the North Pole - will arrive in New England Friday night and early Saturday. Yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the mountains. Pretty high up, actually.  Probably at elevations of 4,000 feet and higher.

That means the tippy tops of Vermont's highest peaks could easily turn white. So too, the summits of New York's Adirondacks and New Hampshire's White Mountains. 

The rest of us will endure cold rain showers and temperatures hover in the low to mid 40s Saturday morning. 

HOW UNUSUAL?

Snow so late in the season is pretty unusual for this time of year. Except at places like the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. I believe it has snowed every month of the year up there. 

Late May and June snows are in New England's history quite liberally. According to the Vermont Weather Book:

There is, of course, the famous Year Without a Summer in 1816. On June 7, snow covered the ground all day in Montpelier and drifts reached 20 inches deep in Danville. 

Even more remarkably, a bigger snowstorm hit Vermont on June 11, 1842. Irasburg reported 10 inches of sow and Bennington had four inches. 

In 1884, a large snowfall hit Vermont's mountains, with accumulating even in the valleys. Lunenburg had two inches of snow. 

There hasn't been anything as dramatic as those examples in modern times, but it does snow this time of year. The latest in the season snow flurry in Burlington on record hit on May 31, 1945. Don't worry, Burlington is safe from snow with this go around Friday night and Saturday. 

On May 24-25, 2013, snow fell at elevations as low as 750 above sea level in Vermont. Mount Mansfield received 13.2 inches of snow, its greatest snow fall for so late in the season. Whiteface Mountain, New York came in with a whopping 34 inches. 

I wish I could find information on the following but I can't. I seem to remember snow falling at elevations as low as 600 feet in the early 1990s. The Bolton 'Valley ski area got a couple inches, I believe. 

On June 10, 2023, Mount Washington, New Hampshire had over eight inches of snow, making it their snowiest June on record. It didn't get quite cold enough on Vermont peaks to snow that day.   The cold and snow hit on what was otherwise a very hot summer.

CAN'T STAY COLD

Even when the forces of nature say otherwise, it really can't stay cold, or at least not that cold, this time of year. 

Saturday should stay in the nippy 50s. But despite that cold air coming from Canada, highs should be in the 60s daily Sunday through Tuesday. That's cool for this time of year but still comfortable. It should warm up more later next week. Summer is definitely not canceled. 

August In Vermont Was Super Dry (Most Places) And Otherwise Kind Of Weather Weird

Very low water levels in the Missisquoi River in 
Enosburgh Falls due to what in many parts of
Vermont were a record or near record dry August. 

You're not going to be the least bit surprised at the following fact now that August is over.

That month was exceptionally, in some cases record dry in Vermont. Montpelier only managed 0.62 inches of rain in August. 

In most Augusts, that amount would fall in a single, hour-long thunderstorm. Normal rainfall for August is 3.81.   

Rutland was even worse, with a preliminary total of just 0.48 inches, against a normal of nearly four inches.s St. Johnsbury only had a bit under an inch of rain.

There were some slight exceptions to the August extreme dryness rule. Burlington had 1.66 inches of rain, which is below normal by 1.88 inches, thanks to a fairly wet final week of the month. This ends up being Burlington's 15th driest August. 

A more pronounced isolated wet spot was Woodstock, which received at least 2.62 inches of rain in August, thanks to well-placed, localized, heavy thunderstorms on August 7 and 14.

I say at least 2.62 inches because data is missing from Woodstock on August 25, and it might have rained that day. Which leads to this editor's note: 

I noticed this morning there were more gaps and delays than usual in August climate information on the National Weather Service page.  I'm unsure whether that's because of cutbacks in staffing at the National Weather Service due to those odious DOGE cuts from the Trump administration, or because today is a holiday or it was just a bad month. 

In the cases of the missing data, I was either able to find the information elsewhere to fill in the gaps, or I just had to give up on highlighting information or drawing conclusions. 

Anyway, going on with Vermont's August weather:

TEMPERATURES

Average temperatures for August, 2025 in Vermont were a little below what is now considered "normal."   Of course, I have to remind you again this is the "new normal." based on the average temperatures from 1990 to 2020. 

This "new normal" is balmier than the 20th century average. So a slightly cooler than average August nowadays would have been a normal or even slightly warmer than normal August had it happened a half century ago.

In fact, despite this August being allegedly "cool" it was still a tie for 30th warmest August out of the past 126 years in Burlington. 

Looking more closely at August temperatures, we find an oddity: Average high temperatures were above normal, but overnight lows were even further below this new normal. 

It's what you'd expect in a dry month. The dry ground allows the daytime sun to really heat the atmosphere instead of focusing on evaporation, so the daytimes are hotter. Nighttimes are cooler during dry spells. If the ground had been wet, that added humidity would have kept temperatures from falling as much as they did. 

This warm highs/chiller lows pattern we saw this August bucks a climate change trend.  Nights have generally been getting warmer faster than daytimes, so this past month was an exception. 

That high temperatures were so warm in August were boosted by a weird heat wave on August 9-12.  Temperatures reached as high as 98 degrees in Burlington on August 12. The heat was accompanied by unusually dry air. 

The weird heat wave is what really started our flash drought in August. 

SUMMER 

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 through August 31, so for climatologists, summer ended last night at midnight. 

Despite the allegedly "cool" August that really was not chilly, Burlington had the seventh warmest summer on record. 

Due to ties, there are actually 14 summers in Burlington's top ten list of warmest summers on record. With this summer added, nine of the top 14 hottest summers have occurred since 2005, and five of them have occurred since 2020.  

So yes, most summers nowadays are way different from the way they were decades ago. 

AUTUMN OUTLOOK

Meteorological autumn runs from September 1 through November 30.  NOAA is saying that above normal temperatures will continue though this new season. In fact, the best chances of higher than average temperatures during the fall in the United States would be in the Southwest and New England. 

Seasonal forecasts aren't alway correct, but NOAA did say last spring that our just ended summer would be very warm, and they were absolutely right. 

The autumn seasonal outlook doesn't help much with our precipitation, which we really need. NOAA just gives us equal chances of above or below normal rainfall between now and the end of November. 

In the short term, the first half of September does look mostly cooler than average, though that doesn't mean the overall warm forecast is wrong. Two weeks out of a season don't make much of a difference.e 

Today through Thursday, and maybe Friday will feature near to slightly above normal temperatures, but it should cool down for at least a few days after that. 

After that, who knows what will happen the rest of the autumn. Watch this space.  

Stick A Fork In It; Vermont Summer Is Over (I Think)

The summer of 2025 has been hot, but cooler,
more autumnal weather has arrived earlier than
in recent years. 

I'm going to declare it: Summer in Vermont is over. 

Sure, we're still going to have summer-like days. We'll still probably have a few afternoons that get into the 80s. Maybe we'll have a couple humid days or stuffy night or two, but I think summer is done.  

Fingers crossed, we might be done with the big heat waves, and the sometimes week long series of nights in which it's almost impossible to sleep without air conditioning. 

This is all subjective, of course. Just because I decide summer is over doesn't mean it is. 

The widely accepted unofficial end of summer is this weekend - Labor Day. Astronomically, summer doesn't end here until 2:19 p.m. eastern time September 22.

But we all have our own sense of when summer is over. The recent cool days, a rather chilly forecast, and an long term expected weather pattern that doesn't scream heat waves has me sticking a fork in summer. 

It's not just me. Down in the nation's capital, the folks at the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang have also declared that summer is over in DC. 

"By our meteorological definition, summer ends when there's no longer a realistic chance of three straight days of 90 degrees or higher. This year, we think we've reached that point," the Weather Gang announced on Wednesday. . 

I don't have a distinct measure for Vermont. Maybe it's when I think another 90 degree day won't hit until next summer.  

That's OK, we've had enough of 'em this year. With 17 such days as measured in Burlington, we're in the top ten list of most 90 degree days in a single year.  Plus, there's always the chance I'm wrong.  A few (but not all!) computer models bring us back to 90 degrees around September 10. You never know.

I usually figure a season has begun or ended through the lens of hindsight. The second half of this August in Vermont has been chilly, at least compared to recent Augusts.  Ever since a strong, autumn-like cold front sliced through the Green Mountain State on August 17, the consistent warmth of this summer disappeared. 

Eight of the last 11 days have been below normal. At least below the "new normal" that has arrived. This "new normal" is toastier than the 20th century average, thanks to climate change. The kind of late August we're having this year would have been typical, even a tad on the warm side if the same series of days had happened, say, in 1960 or 1970 or even 1980.

LONGER CLIMATE CHANGED SUMMERS

Still, this August is also breaking the trend of longer summers. In most recent years, summer weather - and my unofficial definition of the season - has usually lasted into September. 

There's data to back this up. Summers almost everywhere are longer than they were three decades ago, including here in Vermont. 

Per the Washington Post:

"Climatologist Brian Brettschneider examined the hottest 90 days of the year from 1965 to 1994 and compared their frequency over 1995 to 2024. He found that the temperature that used to kick off the hottest three months of the year expanded beyond the calendar definition of summer."

Brettschneider looked at a whole bunch of cities, including Burlington, Vermont.  From 1965 to 1994, the hottest 90 days of summer - when the average temperature was 64 degrees or warmer - ran from June 6 to September 3 in Burlington.

From 1994 to 2004, the average length of summer - the time it was 64 degrees or warmer - increased by 13 days and ran from June 1 to September 11.

Climate change is lengthening our summers and making them hotter. Despite the cool end of this August, the summer of 2025 in Burlington is very likely to be among the top ten hottest on record. 

There are actually 15 summers in Burlington's top ten warmest summer list due to ties. Not including this summer, eight of those top 15 hottest summers have occurred since 2005, and four of them have happened since 2020. So there's a real warming trend here. 

Even though this summer is likely among the hottest on record in Vermont, it is turning into an exception to Brettschneider's longer summer trend. 

You're always going to have exceptions to the rules. Even if those are new rules. Lately, a persistent weather pattern is bringing cool air from Canada. 

Temperatures will continue below normal today through Sunday, then they should rise to near or slightly above normal most of next week. After that, trends indicate another big cool spell starting about a week from today. 

Despite that, who knows?   Summer could unexpectedly come roaring back. Under our climate changed weather patterns, weird surprises happen. 

For instance, in 2017, summer seemed definitely over in late August and early September with consistently cool weather, with even some frost in the cold hollows on September 2. Then, from September 24 to 27, Burlington had an unprecedented four days in a row with temperatures reaching 90 degrees, by far the latest in the season 90 degree temperatures on record. 

Given the track record of recent warm autumn, we might do something weird like that this year.   

Friday Was The Ultimate Perfect Vermont Summer Day. Now, Big Changes Are Afoot

What a day Friday was in Vermont! Deep blue skies,
hills glowing green in the sun. It was the pick of
the summer. But changes are afoot, and we
have some pre-autumn type weather heading
our way after a very warm Saturday. 

 Yes, we desperate need the rain, but you have to admit, Friday's weather was perfect. 

Maybe the pick of the summer.  

The temperature/humidity combo was spot on. Most of us got into the low 80s during the afternoon, so it was a good beach day. It was also superb for any other activity.   The humidity was rock bottom low, so exerting yourself with a hike or a spin on the bike didn't kill you. 

For once, there was no wildlife smoke in the air, so the sky was that deep, deep blue that soothes the soul.  It's rare to have a cloudless sky like this in August. Usually, there might be at least a few puffy clouds out there. 

Likewise, the Green Mountains glowed a deep green for a change, instead of being half or fully obscured by haze and smoke. f your hike took to the mountain summits you could see practically forever. 

If you were on the lake, it was also stupendous, though maybe winds were a bit light for the sailboats.

In other words, Friday was the reason we live in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've left the perfection zone, but if you enjoy summer, you've at least got today to enjoy. Beyond that, we'll see. 

Last night was pretty comfortable for sleeping, as we all started the day with temperatures in the 50s. You'll  notice it heating up pretty quickly this morning. All of us will get well into the 80s, with a few warmer valleys hitting 90 one more time.  There should be plenty of sun today, though a few clouds might come in during the afternoon. 

SUNDAY

This will be our big transition day into what I might call pre-fall, or as I explained the other day, Fair Weather, the kind of not really warm, not really chilly days we have in late August when county fairs are around. 

The cold front will be a little  more like  the kind you see in the autumn, not summer. Summertime cold front come through in pieces, little boundaries with progressively, and slightly cooler and less humid air and a gradual wind shift over many hours.  

Autumn and winter cold fronts come through in one fell swoop. Although Sunday's front won't be "clean" like that - it will still be a bit diffuse - the  push of colder air will be abrupt and noticeable. 

Temperatures will probably actually fall during Sunday afternoon, depending on the timing of the cold front. By evening, you might be reaching for a hoodie or sweater. 

I'm still really unimpressed with the amount of rain that will accompany the cold front. Current forecasts have us getting maybe a tenth of an inch, with a few lucky spots maybe seeing a quarter inch. 

By Monday morning, temperatures  should be down in the 40s, with highs only reaching about 70 by afternoon. 

The cool weather continues most of the week, but it should start to warm up temporarily toward the end of the week. 

If you are reaching for hopes of rain, there might be something coming through Tuesday night and Wednesday, but don't count on it. 

A few forecast models dump an inch of rain on us, which would be great, but those models are in the minority.  Most of them give us just a little rain, and some of them nothing at all.  Stay tuned on that, but for now, I'm leaning toward mostly dry weather and sadly, a worsening drought. 

Since I'm an eternal pessimist, don't count on me being right, though. 

Monday Storms And Heat Depart Vermont , But Summer Weather Stays Put

 The thunderstorm that broke the heat in northern Vermont were in some ways the perfect storms. 

The skies grew dark, Lake Champlain grew choppy and
the wind picked up as thunderstorms approached
Swanton, Vermont late Monday afternoon.
Parts of northern Vermont saw some torrential 
downpours from these storms. 

They were loud and big and boisterous enough to be entertaining with their lightning flashes and big downpours.

 But they fell just short of being severe or damaging, and the torrential rains in every place affected ended just in time to prevent any serious flash flooding. 

The storms have helped northwestern Vermont get July off to a wet start. 

Burlington got nearly an inch of rain. Morrisville clocked in with 1.49 inches.

The first week of July brought 2.38 inches of rain to Burlington, more than double the average for the week. 

My unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans has caught 0.85 inches of rain yesterday, for a total so far this month of 2.76 inches. 

Other parts of Vermont have avoided much rain so far this young month. Southern Vermont for a change is somewhat on the dry side for the opening part of July

Before the Monday storms, Burlington reached 92 degrees, the sixth time this summer already it's been 90 degrees or more. Once again, we're ahead of schedule for the number of 90 degree days. But not on a record breaking pace. 

The most 90 degree days in a single year at Burlington is 26 back in 1949.  Unless we see some unbelievable extremes later in July and August. that record seems safe. 

We know it won't make it anywhere close to 90 degrees today, thanks to the cold front that sparked Monday's storms

FORECAST

It was murky and foggy and overcast across Vermont early this morning in the wake of that cold front. It was also quite muggy in central and southern parts of the state, but a little less so up in the northwest parts of the Green Mountain State.

You'll see gradual improvement today, with the hope of some sun breaking out this afternoon. The air won't turn gloriously dry, but at least it will be less humid than it's been the past couple of days. 

Wednesday actually looks pretty decent. It should be partly sunny and seasonably warm (low 80s). There's a low chance of a few scattered showers and storms, but most places should stay dry. 

Thursday is July 10, a day which makes Vermont nervous. That's because of those dates in 2023 and last year, catastrophic flooding hit us.  We don't want that to happen again!  I'm sure rain on Thursday could bring on some episodes of PTSD.

The bad news is it will probably rain on Thursday. The great news is so far I don't see any signs that the rain will amount to anything that would cause big trouble. Sure, most of us will see some showers and thunderstorms. 

The extent of those storms is still iffy, as the forecast models are arguing among themselves a bit. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flash flooding Thursday. But that means that there's a remote chance a spot or two could see enough rain to cause a little damage.

If forecasts change, of course we'll let you know. But I think we're pretty safe on Thursday. 

Beyond Thursday, it stays rather warm and on the humid side, with an occasional risk here and there of a scattered shower or storm through the weekend and probably beyond. 

After A Classic Vermont Summer Day, We Get Classic July 4 Week Changeable Summer Weather.

My two favorite colors on a summer day. A deep blue 
sky and the rich green of late June trees. Which made
Monday in Vermont a perfect summer day. 
Today, the humidity is back. 

I hope you loved the Vermont weather on Monday.

It was my favorite kind of summer weather. I call them blue/green days, for the two colors that dominated a perfect summer day. 

The wildfire smoke that plagued the skies of Vermont, and most of the United States has diminished for now. 

That left us with deep blue summer skies and hills and Vermont mountains glowing a luxurious, verdant  green.  

After a cool, comfortable start, it turned out to be a very warm day. Burlington just missed another 90 degree day, topping out at 89. 

But it wasn't humid at all. A cool dip in the water, followed by a slight breeze on your wet skin in the relatively dry air cooled you off nicely. 

If you weren't at the beach and opted for a hike or gardening or some other outdoor activity, it was comfortable despite the warmth, especially if you kept to the shade.  A classic summer day. 

TODAY

Well, that's over, and the humidity is back. We'll be dealing with that on and off at least through August, so get used to it. The classic summer weather is continuing, but not in the fashion everybody loves, I guess. 

In the Champlain Valley, it never really cooled off last night. It was still 81 at 2 a.m. At dawn, after some rain arrived, it was in the mid 70s with a dew point of a sticky 69 degrees.

That mugginess will be the theme of the day. 

This morning should be the wettest part of the day.   One band of downpours was heading into central and northern Vermont as of 6:30 a.m.  Showers should be around much of the morning.  

We'll get pretty warm again today, with highs in the mid 80s in many places. But the humidity will make it feel worse. A humid day with a cold front approaching is a recipe for lots of severe storms, so you'd think we need to really be on our toes today.

However, we won't see widespread storms.  A lot of clouds will linger, and there's not a lot of upper air support for organized severe weather.  So it's not a great environment for a wild storm day. 

Central and southern Vermont could have a one or two strong or marginally severe storms, but most of us will see garden variety downpours this afternoon, if anything. It'll all be hit and miss, with perhaps half or more of Vermont being in the miss category this afternoon and evening. 

NOAA also has Vermont under a marginal risk of flash floods, but that's a really low risk today. There might be isolated minor problems, but the downpours won't be lingering in any one place for too long, which minimizes the danger. 

The real flood problems look like they'll be in the Mid-Atlantic States, where torrential rains will hit areas that experienced flash flooding on Monday. 

 WEDNESDAY

The "cold front" coming through later today is just a humidity front. In other words, it won't be any cooler on Wednesday than today, but the humidity will be somewhat lower. It won't exactly be Sahara Desert dry, you'll still feel some mugginess. But it won't be awful as temperatures rise once again into the 80s

THURSDAY

This might be another one of my favorite type of summer days, but in a different way than Monday. Another cold front will be coming in, and a chilly pocket of air will move in high overhead. That'll create some beautiful tall billowing clouds that will develop into showers and scattered thunderstorms.

This is shaping up to be yet another version of a  classic Vermont summer day.  The kind where you lie down in the grass and watch the clouds keep making new shapes. At least until the showers arrive. 

That type of day looks best if there is deep blue sky between the clouds. Unfortunately, a little wildfire smoke from Canada could make things a bit hazy, but it still looks like a pretty day. You'll just be dodging scattered storms. It will probably not be the best day to be out on the lake or on mountain summits, given the risk of lightning and thunderstorms. 

There is a marginal risk of one or two strong storms.  Since there will be cold air aloft, the very strongest storms could produce some hail and some gusty winds.  We'll keep an eye on this to see what future forecasts bring. 

FOURTH OF JULY AND BEYOND

It still looks like July 4 will be cool and partly sunny with rock bottom humidity, so that'll be nice for watching the parades. Maybe.

Some forecasts keep an upper level low nearby, which would create a rather overcast Fourth of July for the Green Mountain State. We'll wait and see on that. But at least we know it won't be blazing hot. OK, a cool Fourth of July isn't exactly classic summer weather, but at least you won't die of heat stroke along the parade route. 

The evening at this point should feature mostly clearing skies (cross your fingers) so you won't have trouble checking out the fireworks.  Warmth and humidity look like they want to return for the weekend. Especially on Sunday.

Coolish Stretch Of June Weather In Vermont/New England Will End Soon

Vermont had weather winners and losers once again
on Saturday. In this satellite photo taken in the
early afternoon, it was clear near the Canadian border
while the rest of northern Vermont had a mix of
sun and puffy clouds, But southern Vermont was
socked in by the clouds once again, as so often
has been the case lately on Saturdays.

 In recent years, we've had some awful spells of rather intense early season heat and humidity in May and the first half of June in Vermont. 

Summers have been starting earlier than they used to, in large part due to climate change.   

This year so far has been more temperate. It did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on June 5, but spells of very warm, humid weather have been brief.

That might be about to change. Warm, very humid air looks like it will flow into northern New England by mid-week. 

After that, there might be a brief cooldown or two, but the overall weather pattern is trending toward warmer, more summery conditions.

THIS WEEKEND

It was a tale of two Vermonts again on Saturday. After some early morning sprinkles, it was gorgeous across northern parts of the state yesterday. We had sunshine, deep blue skies finally free of the smoky haze, a few puffy clouds to decorate the skies and comfortable temperatures in the low 70s.

Meanwhile, southern Vermont was socked in with the clouds most of the day.

Today will be a little more fair to everyone. It'll be partly sunny almost statewide  -- the clouds will sort of be in and out all day -  and there's the slightest chance of a brief shower. But the vast majority of us will stay dry.

An exception would be far southern Vermont, near the Massachusetts border, They're closer to a stalled weather front that's been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic States for days. So clouds will probably dominate out of today in place like Bennington and Brattleboro.

Then changes are afoot

THIS WEEK AND BEYOND

You'll notice the humidity rising day by day early this week from pretty low levels today to really sticky by Wednesday and Thursday.

The dew point is a good indicator of how icky it feels out there. Today, those dew points will be in the 50s, which is comfortable. On Monday, they'll edge closer to 60.  That's still OK, but you'll notice it a little if you're really exerting yourself outdoors. 

Tuesday's dew points will be in the low 60s, which is a little sticky, then in the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. There's your ick factor right there. 

Actual daily temperatures will climb, too, from the lows 70s today, upper 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday and in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

When you combine such warmth and humidity, you often get showers and thunderstorms. At this point, those seem a safe bet Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too soon to tell, however, if any of those storms would get on the strong side. It's also a little early to figure out if any of those storms will dump a bit too much rain. 

Those details will be ironed in the coming days. 

Forecasts beyond this coming Thursday are a little more questionable, only because a lot can change in the atmosphere over four or five days. Those changes sometimes throw longer range forecasts way off.

But an early guess suggests a brief cooldown coming next weekend (down to near normal mid and upper 70s).  Then, some computer models bring in an even hotter few days right after next weekend. We could have a spell of 90 degree weather in a little over a week from now.

Summer seems to be here, folks.  

Another National Hot Summer With Another Central U.S. "Warming Hole"

Long range predictions issued in the spring for what the nation's summer would be like turned out to be pretty darned accurate.  

Those forecasts said the West and East coasts had the best chances of a hot summer this year, while there was a somewhat lesser chance of that happening in the central and northern Plains.  

Here was the forecast for chances of above or
below normal temperatures for this past summer
This forecast was issued on May 16. 

That's just what happened.

As the Washington Post tells us:

"Many dozens of cities in the West, Northeast and Gulf Coast posted their hottest summer on record (as measured by average temperature for the three-month period). California and Arizona had the most locations with record hot summers."

For the record, here in Vermont, Burlington logged its third hottest summer.

Though the northern and central Plains and Midwest had some heat waves over the summer, it wasn't really a blockbuster one for heat.

Which follows a well defined trend. Summer temperatures in much of the middle third of the nation have not been warming like the East and West coasts. It's as if climate change is vacationing away from the Midwest during the summer. 

A recent paper in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society helps explain what's going on. Ironically, the seeming lack of climate-related summer warming in the Midwest is largely the fault of (drum roll......) climate change. 

This is how summer actually turned out. The deeper the
red, the warmer relative to average it was. Blue areas
were slightly cooler than average. This is pretty
darn close to that forecast from May 16.

The Plains have gotten wetter in the summer than in previous decades, according to the paper.  It's interesting that daytime highs in months like June, July and August in the Plains have not risen, but  overnight lows have.

Wetter, more humid days tend to suppress daytime temperatures in the summer, but such weather can keep nights warmer.   Writers of the paper note that average atmospheric pressure during the summer in the Plains has gone down, indicating the presence of more storm systems. 

Extra storm systems also pull down batches of cooler Canadian air as they pass through, contributing to that lack of warming.

 Fewer storms would have allowed air either move up from the south as heat waves, or just warm up under the strong sunshine of summer. 

Land use such as increased irrigation might also be contributing to the relative coolness in the Plains, but that doesn't seem to be the main factor.

And yes, climate change could well be contributing to the increased wetness in the Plains, so as usual with this type of thing, yes, a warming world might actually be cooling the the central U.S. in the summer.  

Phoenix, Arizona Grinds On With 100+ Consecutive Days Of 100 Degree Heat

It was over 100 degrees today (Thursday Sept 5) in
Phoenix, Arizona, the 102nd such day in a row.
The old record for such consecutive days was 76.
And there's no end in sight for this intense heat. 

As we usually see in here in Vermont during September, temperatures have gotten more comfortable than they were in mid-summer, with the dense humidity and hot days mostly if not completely behind us.   

Compared to many cities, including the example I'll get into, Vermont is always lucky when it comes to heat. 

One Vermont weather station did get above 100 degrees on one day this summer. And on a few days, the heat index nudged above degrees. But that was it for triple digit heat. 

This compares to very unfortunately Phoenix, Arizona. It's always ridiculously hot there in the summer, but this is beyond what even they are used to.

On Tuesday, they had their 100th consecutive day in which the temperature reached at least 100. Until this year, Phoenix never had a year with more than 76 consecutive 100 degree days. So this is painful, even for them. 

Even worse, an intense new heat wave is hitting the western United States this week, including in the fair city of Phoenix. An excessive heat warning was issued for much of southern California and Arizona - including Phoenix, through Friday. 

Forecast highs in Phoenix were 114 today and 111 Friday. 

The heat, of course is dangerous. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, heat deaths increased 50 percent from 2022, reaching a record 645 people in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. This year, 150 heat deaths have been confirmed by the government and an additional 440 deaths are under investigation." 

Not surprisingly, this long 100 degree streak contributed to making meteorological summer (June 1-August 31) the hottest on record, with an average of 98.9 degrees. The average high for that period in Phoenix was 110.4 degrees. The average low as a stifling 87.5 degrees.  

This is the second year in a row that Phoenix endured a spectacularly hot summer. Last July, Phoenix set a record for the hottest average monthly temperature for a U.S. city, as July, 2023 saw an average of 102.7 degrees. (Death Valley had hotter months, but that's not a city).  

Phoenix last year also had a record 31 days in a row in which the temperature reached at least 110 degrees. 

I guess climate change is making a brutally hot city even more unlivable. 

Normal highs in early September around Phoenix are still around 102 or 103 degrees, but you usually have a few days with highs "only" in the 90s by now. In fact, seasonal monsoons, with their clouds and thunderstorms, sometimes cause highs to stay below 100 degrees in Phoenix on a few days in late July and August 

It doesn't look like the 2024 daily 100-degree streak in Phoenix is going to end anytime soon. The National Weather Service forecasts daily highs at or above 100 degrees at least through next Wednesday. 

The Weather Channel forecast doesn't give Phoenix a sub-100 high temperature until September 15.

The late season heat wave out west is of course affecting plenty of other towns and cities. All the way north into Washington State, highs for the next couple of days are forecast to reach near record highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s. 

Officials are worries that the dry heat, along with erratic winds, could touch off destructive forest fires in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains. 

Confirmed: August And Summer As A Whole In Vermont Hot, Wet

 Hot and wet.

Dark thunderstorm clouds invade blue sky on a humid
day over Colchester, Vermont on August 4. That
turned out to be typical weather for the entire month.

That's definitely how you can describe the summer of 2024. We knew that already, but the final figures are in to prove it. 

TEMPERATURES

The August figures are in and we had another warmer than normal month, at least if you look at all the historical averages dating back to the 1880s.

Even so, August was the "coolest" relative to normal of the three summer months in Vermont this year.  Overall temperatures for the month were near what has become a new normal. 

"Normal" temperatures are the average of the period from 1990 to 2020.  This is moved ahead every decade. Until 2020, the "normal." was the average between 1980 and 2010. You see how it's updated every decade.

Under this arrangement, Burlington was actually a touch cooler than this new normal in August, 2024, with a mean temperature of 70.4 degrees compared to this so-called "normal" of 70.7 degrees.

But this August was decidedly warmer than the 20th century average in Burlington. In the past 132 years, I could only find 29 Augusts that were as warm or warmer than this year. And only fifteen of those were before 1990.

Elsewhere in Vermont, August came in just a bit warmer than the new average, mostly by a degree or less. 

The month was humid in general, and you can see evidence of that in the numbers. Humid days tend to keep high temperatures suppressed a little bit, and overnight low temperatures on the higher side. 

Across Vermont, average high temperatures in August, 2024 were a bit below the "new normal," But average lows for the month were solidly on the warmer than average side. 

RAINFALL/OTHER EVENTS

Precipitation was generous across Vermont in August, 2024, but thankfully not nearly as torrential or destructive as in the previous month. 

Still, the Northeast Kingdom did have some more flooding in early August, and more heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Debby around August 9-10. Over those two days. St. Johnsbury had 2.78 inches of rain. 

Debris from a roof that blew off a house in St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on August 9 due to high winds produced by
former Hurricane Debby 

For the entire month, pretty much everyone was about an inch on the heaver than average side, except ultra wet St. Johnsbury, which had 6.11 inches of rain in August, about two inches more than normal. 

We did get a scare with Debby on August 9 to 10, as forecasts prior to the storm indicated Vermont might be in for another devastating flood. Instead, the severe flooding hit Pennsylvania, western and northwestern New York and on into Quebec.

High winds with that storm,  however, did cause quite a bit of damaging in the Green Mountain State, especially in and near the Champlain Valley. 

Like in many recent summers, we also dealt with occasional bouts of wildfire smoke during August, but the pollution wasn't nearly as bad as last year. 

FULL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to August 31. This year, there's some pretty impressive records for the season.   .

St. Johnsbury  - very remarkably - had both its hottest and wettest summer on record, reports the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

It's especially wild since records in St. Johnsbury go back to 1894. The longer the period of record at a weather station,  the less likely they are to break big records like seasonal temperature and rain. The average summer temperature in St. Johnsbury was 70.3.

St. Johnsbury's wettest summer record was so off the charts I still can't believe it. From June 1 through August 31, they had an incredible 29.48 inches of rain over the three months, including that insane 17.15 inch total for July. 

St. Johnsbury's wettest day in history was the 8.08 inches that fell on July 30. Even if you subtract out the July 30 from this summer's rainfall, St. Johnsbury would still have had its wettest summer on record.  

Burlington tied with 2018 for the third hottest summer on record, with a three-month average of 72.1 degrees. That means four of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have been since 2018.  That's quite a trend that certainly hints at climate change. 

It reached at least 90 degrees on 14 days this summer. It's looking really unlikely we'll see any more such days, so that should be the total for the year. Only 13 other summers in Burlington since the late 1880s had as many or more 90 degree days than that. 

Montpelier had its third wettest and sixth warmest summer on record in 2024. 

Vermont managed to see a rare year in which at least one place managed to get to at least 100 degrees. North Springfield, Vermont, reached 101 degrees on June 21. They had quite a heat wave, with daily highs on June 19-21 at 98, 99, and that 101.

Speaking of quite a heat wave, Lebanon, New Hampshire had the most consecutive 90 degree days on record as each of the 12 days from July 6 through 17 reached at least 90.  Lebanon is a good proxy for White River Junction since it's right across the Connecticut River. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Long range forecasts, as I always like to point out are prone to error. But they often do provide hints as to what's coming up, even if they're not always reliable. 

In recent years, summer weather has extended well into September, another sign of climate change. 

This year, though, the first half of September looks like we'll be a little closer to autumn than usual. Temperatures over the next two weeks are forecast to be near or a little cooler than average across Vermont. 

Longer range forecasts from NOAA, however, hint at better odds of a warmer than average autumn overall.  NOAA gives the best chances of a toasty autumn to the southern Rockies and New England.   

That's also consistent with recent autumn. Seven of the ten warmest autumns on record in Burlington have occurred since 2011. Records go back to the 1880s.

I'm Now Declaring That Vermont Summer Is Over

Altocumulus clouds cover the sky over St. Albans, 
Vermont last evening. I tend to associate these clouds
with autumn, which is in keeping with my 
thinking that summer is over. 

OK, I've decided, summer is over. 

My ruling is the most subjective of them all, but it's plain our hot, wet, humid summer is behind us.  

That's not to say we won't have any more warm or even hot weather. Or humid spells. We probably will. But the season has turned. 

This feeling that summer is over almost always used to hit in mid to late August. In recent years, it seems like we have to wait until early or even mid-September for the bulk of summer to be over.  

And it's still possible we could have a long stretch of mid-summer like weather as the calendar turns to September. 

But the weather lately has checked all the boxes for calling an end to summer. 

There are so many signs. One is the spots of fall color you see here and there in the otherwise still green landscape of Vermont. That's typical of late August, but there does seem to be a bit more of that color than I usually see this time of year. That could just be my imagination or impression, who knows.

Even the warm spells have an autumn feel. 

Tuesday evening a brief surge of warm, humid air was making its way into Vermont. In full summer, it doesn't take much to bring such weather into the Green Mountain State, so spells of muggy weather don't have much wind when they arrive at our doorstep in, say, July.

But Tuesday evening, as I sat in my outdoor tub enjoying the cool water, I watched the trees sway in a gusty south winds. It's starting to take more force to drive toasty air into Vermont. 

Cold fronts have lately been bringing cooler and cooler air to the Green Mountain State. The opening salvo was those three days that never got out of the 60s for highs last week. It got down to 51 degrees in Burlington this morning. That's not particularly chilly for this time of year, but it was still the coolest morning since June 28.

The forecast has more cool weather on our agenda.  After a brief squirt of somewhat higher humidity Saturday and parts of Sunday, Labor Day promises to be a classic crisp Vermont autumn day with sunshine and highs only reaching the 60s. 

Even the type of cloud cover we're seeing lately screams autumn. Last evening, we had a beautiful display of altocumulus clouds, which look like a series of small cotton balls covering the sky.  I associate this type of cloud with autumn, because it seems I see them most frequently in September or October.

The sounds outdoors have changed, too. I'm hearing far fewer songbirds and plenty more crickets, which is a classic autumn song list, if you will. 

Of course, there are more scientific and less subjective definitions of autumn than my own "feelings" about it. 

Astronomical autumn begins at 8:43 a.m. EDT on September 22. 

Meteorological autumn, which is an easy way for climatologists and others to assess a season's weather, starts September 1 and lasts through November 30.

Summer, at least measured in Burlington, Vermont, looks like it will be among the top five warmest. We were headed toward warmest summer on record, but the last ten days or so of cooler weather looks like it will keep 2020 in the top spot.

And, if Burlington gets at least 0.58 inches of rain during the expected showers on Saturday, it will become the city's tenth wettest summer on record. 

Long range forecasts suggest we'll have a warm, and possibly wet autumn here in Vermont. Long range forecasts aren't always accurate, but those hot predictions ahead of this summer proved accurate. And autumns have definitely trended warmer in recent years across Vermont. 

Seven of the top 10 warmest autumns in Burlington have happened since 2011. So, though summer might be over in my opinion, bouts of summer-like weather still seems to be on the horizon for awhile yet.  

Vermont Summer: At Least The Pumpkins Are Big

Vermont Agriculture Secretary Anson Tebbetts snapped
this photo of this year's giant pumpkin contest at the 
Champlain Valley Fair.  The winner, middle pumpkin
weighed a record 1,327.5 pounds. 

I had a post the other day, I inventoried some of the negative effects such a hot, humid, wet summer we had on Vermont.  

But there were plusses to that oppressive weather, too.

Like giant pumpkins.

Wilbur Horton of Springfield, Vermont entered a giant pumpkin at the Champlain Valley Fair this past week that shattered the record for the heaviest one on record there. His pumpkin weighed a staggering, 1,327.5 pounds, as WPTZ reports. 

The old record for the most giant pumpkin any the fair was set last year, another hot, wet summer. That 2023 pumpkin weighed a mere 1,280 pounds. 

Most of the credit for this year's giant pumpkin record has to go to Horton's pumpkin growing prowess. He is, after all, a member of the Vermont Giant Pumpkin Growers Association. (I had no idea such an organization exists, but it sounds fun).

Still, pumpkins love hot, humid weather so the conditions were ripe, so to speak, for Horton's gourd. Southeastern Vermont, where Horton lives, was not as wet and somewhat sunnier than northern sections of the state during the summer, so that surely helped. 

If you want to see the winning pumpkin for yourself, there's still time. It's on display in the fairgrounds in Essex Junction until September 1.

Certain other crops do well in a Vermont summer that was more like you'd see in the Mid-Atlantic States.  My garden is producing cucumbers so prolifically and fast that my husband finds himself frantically pickling them so they last longer. 

I understand there's bumper crops of tomatoes. I see apple trees are sagging under the weight of a huge number of fruit. Also, don't get me started on zucchini.  

If you have a bumper crop, or giant pumpkins or other huge veggies, let me know. 

Humid, Wet Summer In Vermont Caused Garden Woes, And Mosquito, Lake Dangers

Despite frequent applications of Neem oil and copper fungicide, 
the hot, humid summer encourage pests which took an
unusual toll on this rose mallow plant in St. Albans, Vermont.

Funguses, pests and other ills are diminishing backyard gardens.  Algae blooms have occasionally made parts of Lake Champlain unsafe.  Mosquito-borne dangers like West Nile disease loom. 

Blame all this on one of Vermont's hottest, wettest and definitely the most humid summer on record. Our northern ecosystem isn't used to this weirdly tropical weather. 

By at least one measure, Vermont had its most humid summer on record. At least since the 1940x, anyway. According to meteorologists at WPTZ-TV:

"Burlington has....recorded its most humid summer on record (through Aug. 19, going back to 1948.  There have been over 220 hours (almost 10 full days) of oppressive humidity so far this summer. 'Oppressive' refers to dew points of 70 degrees or higher."

The previous record was 200 hours in 1994.

All this has had its effects. I told you the other day that the type of summer we had will probably contribute to extra bouts of fog this autumn. 

But there are worse issues going around than fog. 

Water in Lake Champlain reached record high temperature of around 80 degrees in early to mid August. Meanwhile, this summer's floods discharged mud, pollution, phosphorus and other yucks into Lake Champlain, hindering water quality goals, as VTDigger points out. 

These flood discharges, working in concert with warm lake water temperatures, contribute to cyanobacteria, a blue-green algae that looks like thick pea soup or a paint spill, according to at least one lake biologist.

While much of this algae is relatively harmless, if incredibly yucky, some of it can turn toxic, making people ill who swim in it. It's also known to kill dogs who venture into it.  Satellite images revealed a large outbreak of this algae across the northern end of Lake Champlain in early August. 

Mosquitoes have had a field day this summer, what with all the rain we've had, and the humidity, and the heat. Illnesses such as West Nile and eastern equine encephalitis, or EEE have been detected in Vermont mosquitoes this summer.

This type of thing happens almost every summer, but this year's weather has made the problem all the more likely. 

West Nile has been detected in at least one mosquito pool up in Alburgh, and EEE has been found in mosquitoes in northwestern Vermont. 

Home gardeners like me have seen issues in shrubs and in both perennial and vegetable gardens. Fungus, powdery mildew and an influx of insects have dimmed the glory of many gardens, or have at least frustrated gardeners.

Finally, the hot, wet summer could have an effect on this fall's foliage season.  It's too soon to tell, but sometimes, the fungi that frustrate gardens can infiltrate leaves in our forests. While these fungi ultimately don't hurt the trees, they can make leaves turn a dull brown and fall off prematurely. Which is a bummer if you're hoping for a brilliant foliage season.  

Fog Season In Vermont Has Arrived And This Year Could Be A Doozy

Sunflower stalks on a foggy morning late last
fall in St. Albans. Vermont 

 Every year, in the final days of summer and the first half of autumn, dense morning fog is a frequent visitor in Vermont.  

The nights begin to get a little cooler. Meanwhile, lakes, ponds, rivers, even the soil is near its peak temperature of the year. 

These bodies of water, and the soil, and the leaves on the trees, emit moisture. When the temperature drops overnight, that moisture condenses into fog. It clings to the river valleys and can cut visibility to near zero until it burns off by mid morning. At least usually. 

The season has started already, as it often does in August. Patchy dense fog was scattered around Vermont early this Saturday morning. 

This autumn could well be an especially foggy one.  It was a much warmer than normal summer, last week notwithstanding, so water and soil temperatures are higher than they usually are. 

The increased contrast between the cooling nights and the warm water and soil is a recipe for fog.

Satellite view this morning shows fog in river 
valleys, especially the lower White and Connecticut
River valleys. 

You surely noticed this summer was also really, really wet. Soils moistures are high, so that adds a lot of water to the atmosphere. The more moisture available in the air, the more likely you're going to have fog.

Even in nights when humidity is low, the moisture coming from the ground, the rivers, the lakes, the leaves on the trees can really add plenty of ingredients for fog.

From now into October, any night that is at least sort of clear and calm will give us a bunch of fog. 

The morning fog in the autumn can be spectacularly beautiful. When foliage season hits, I always recommend people get an early start. The photographs of the fall foliage emerging into sunshine from the fog can be incredibly gorgeous. 

Of course, the autumn fogs can be dangerous. You're blasting down the road in clear air, and all of a sudden you punch into a fog bank. 

Visibility goes to zero, and you don't even see the car braking ahead of you, until it's too late. And yes, the fog can be dense enough so that you don't see the brake lights.  

Over the next few weeks, the sun is still strong enough that the fog will surely burn off by mid morning. The sun heats the air, the contrast between the cool air and the warm ground disappears, so blue sky and sunshine quickly re-appear by 10 a.m or so.

Dense fog cuts visibility to near zero on a 
St. Albans, Vermont street last year. 

Later in the autumn, the sun angle is lower, so the heat is not as strong. Especially this year, I imagine, we'll end up with several days that on paper should start out foggy then turn sunny. Instead, those days sometimes turn out to be entirely gloomy. The fog lingers, then maybe lifts into a low, gray overcast. The mountain tops end up in the sun, but us valley dwellers experience a dreary day. 

On some of those days, the sky finally clears late in the afternoon, only to fog up again that night. 

Fog can be beautiful, giving our surroundings a mysterious air. But much like in the winter, plan on leaving a few minutes early for work on calm mornings. Patches of fog will mean you'll need to drive more slowly. 

This Will Probably Be the Best Vermont Summer Weather Weekend Of The Summer

The table is set for probably the best weather weekend
of this summer in Vermont. 

UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Today worked out just about as expected in what I wrote this morning. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than I thought there'd be. 

Still not much, but enough to make the 

are quality go from good to just moderate at times. 

This might be the state of affairs all weekend. Other than that, the forecast I outlined below for Saturday and Sunday hasn't changed much at all from what I wrote below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 For Vermont summer weather enthusiasts, and for tourists who picked this weekend to come to the Green Mountain State, this is your weekend.  

It'll have everything you need: A lot of sunshine, some comfortable nights, a warm but temperate Saturday and a fairly hot Sunday - perfect for a visit to the beach.

In other words we're in for a respite from the storms, downpours and humidity that always seemed to hang over our heads. Or at least threaten to.  

The cold front that came through Thursday had a little more oomph than I thought it might. By late afternoon, temperatures in the northern half of the state had fallen into the low 70s. It actually felt genuinely cool out there, something I haven't experienced in awhile. 

This morning, we're starting off with temperatures within a couple degrees of 60. The humidity is low, the air is fresh. 

Which sets the tone for the weekend. 

We'll almost have wall to wall sunshine today through Sunday.  The sky will occasionally be dotted with some fair well cumulus clouds during the days. Mostly for decoration and to grace the Instagram photos you'll be taking. Or something like that. 

The sky could also have a hazy quality to it at times, thanks to worsening wildfires in western Canada and the western United States. Any smoke will remain aloft, so air quality should stay pretty safe.

Being the pessimist the I can be, I'm looking for some other potential problems that'll interfere with this great weather. I'm coming up almost empty.  A weak disturbance might set off an isolated light shower in the Northeast Kingdom this afternoon. Any showers will come and go in a flash. But without lightning flashes. No thunderstorms today. 

I wonder if a tiny, weak upper level disturbance moving inland from the New England coast could throw clouds our way to an extent Sunday. But right now the air looks too dry, and the lame disturbance too weak and too far east to create any unexpected overcast. 

Temperatures will be on an uphill climb between today and Sunday. It should get to near 80 today with low humidity. Which means today is your best bet for exertion, like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump or something like that. 

After another comfortable night, Saturday gets  little warmer, sneaking up into the low 80s. Sunday is your beach day with temperatures in many areas getting into the upper 80s.  Traditional banana belt towns in parts of the Champlain Valley could flirt with 90.  Humidity on Sunday will be reasonable, though. 

BACK TO THE GRIND

Once we get into the new work week after our fun weekend, it's back to the grind. Both for work and the kind of weather we'll have.

It'll be back to daily warmth, humidity and thunderstorm and downpour risks. At this stage of the game, Monday looks like it should stay rain-free for the vast majority of us.  It'll be well into the 80s to maybe near 90 again, and you'll notice the humidity creeping up on us. 

Then, for the rest often week, the Bermuda High will keep pumping very warm, humid air our way, while weak, slow moving disturbances pushing in will bring us daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. 

It's impossible to tease out which days will be the stormiest, but in general, most of the lightning and downpours should come in the afternoons and evenings.

Our sunny weekend will help soils dry out, so that might limit flash flood risks in the downpours, unless they persist for days. 

One cautionary tale comes from the long range forecasts. 

If the six to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are correct - and there's absolutely no guarantee of that - then we could be in for some volatile weather in the opening days of August. 

The forecast hot temperatures and above normal rainfall - if they actually happen - imply humidity and the atmospheric sparks that could trigger torrential rains and possibly severe storms or even renewed localized flash floods.   That's something that Vermont can live without after what has so far been a rather hot and stormy summer. 

Peak Of Summer Brought Us A Brief Break. Now It's Back To Humidity, Downpours, And Eventually Heat Again

On average, if you have to pick the exact height of summer, it's right around July 21.

My Quick Fire Hydrangeas are what I consider at their 
peak and prettiest right now. They follow the season starting
off white in early summer, turning pink at the peak of summer
and gradually going to a russet in the autumn. 

That's right around the time we've had half our heat waves, half our spells of humidity. The hottest days of summer are often right around that date. 

You start to notice the start of a journey toward autumn about now.   

Vermonts trees, forests and hillsides are still the royal green of summer, but a few of the leaves are looking tired or ragged. If you look closely, you see hints of red in the swamp maples.  

As I sat out in my yard last evening, I noticed a relative lack of birds compared to spring and early summer. We're starting to see the sun set a little earlier. 

July 21 this year turned out to be a little cooler than it has been lately, belying the reputation as the peak of summer.  The high temperature in Burlington Sunday was 79 degrees. That ended a streak of 19 consecutive days with high temperatures of 80 degrees or more. The streak was good enough to become the sixth longest set of consecutive 80s on record. The longest such streak was 29 days in 2018.

Chances are, the hottest temperature of this summer came early in the season. The toastiest we've gotten so far, at least as measured in Burlington, was 96 degrees on June 19.

We might be halfway through summer, but there's plenty of it left. Plenty of time for more downpours, sunny days, heat waves, you know the drill.

UP NEXT

As of today, Vermont's summer weather of 2024 is up to its old tricks. Like we've seen so often this summer, it's gotten humid and wet, with locally heavy downpours. That'll be our state of affairs through Thursday.  

As has been so often the case this summer, National
Weather Service radar is lit up with rain, with 
locally  heavy downpours in red. Image is
from around 6:40 a.m. today. 

Rainfall has been highly variable overnight and early this morning, as is typical of summer. The northern Adirondacks of New York have had enough downpours to trigger a local flood warning up there early today. 

Areas of heavy rain also showed up on radar across far northern Vermont, though I haven't seen any indication of a flood risk there. 

Meanwhile, Burlington had just 0.04 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. 

We'll need to watch out - once again - for instances of flash flooding over the next three days, with Thursday the likeliest day to produce trouble. If indeed we get any trouble. 

The risk of flash flooding is the usual harassment we've had all summer: There's a chance of isolated flood problems, but nothing widespread or super scary like on July 10-11. 

The rain we're getting this morning will tend to taper off as we head toward noon. In the afternoon, we'll see some more showers and thunderstorms erupt.  That's when an isolated, slow moving thunderstorm in one or two spots could cause some new local washouts or culvert problems. The chances of this happening today are quite low, but not zero.

The sticky weather that's returned will, um, stick around for a few more days. Nights will be stuffy, but at least days will only reach the low 80s, as clouds and showers will hold temperatures down a little. 

Wednesday will be sultry again with the usual hit and miss storms. Afternoon and evening are the most likely times for that, as usual.

We start to get some weak boundaries and cold fronts approaching and passing through Thursday, which will make even more showers and downpours and storms erupt in the humid air. That's why I'm eyeing Thursday as a potential flash flood day, again in a few isolated places. Most of us will be fine, but we'll need to keep an eye out. 

DRYING OUT?

Beyond that, there's good news and bad news. High pressure that originated in south central Canada will drift in from the west and northwest by Friday.  There's been record heat in central and western Canada, so the air with this one is warm. 

Friday and Saturday might well end up being warmer than earlier in the week. But the humidity will temporarily crash so we'll have a couple of fairly comfortable sleeping nights and some really decent beach days over the weekend.

Bonus: As it looks now, we might have at least four consecutive days of rain-free weather with this. 

This high pressure looks like it will want to strengthen overhead and also team up with the dreaded offshore Bermuda High. Early indications are this will set us up for another hot spell, with more 90 degree days possible starting Sunday or Monday.