Vermont weather geek's hodgepodge of weather and climate news and opinion. Often Vermont focused, but taking a national and global approach, with sometimes an appropriate dash of fun, outrage, cynicism and compassion.
Damage from flash flooding near Hinesburg, Vermont in July, 2024. We're now entering prime flash flood season, and Vermonters still have some PTSD from the floods of the last three summers. Very slight chance of some local flash floods Wednesday night in Vermont, but no big threats ---yet
Summer is the season of flash floods in the United States.
Such floods can happen anytime of year, of course. But summer, with its slow moving and/or intense thunderstorms, is the prime season.
Sunday night, a flash flood emergency was declaredin and around Huntsville, Alabama, where people had to be plucked from flooded cars. Water also got into several homes.
We're already seeing some pretty big flash floods this week. On Monday, rain fell at a rate of up to four inches per hour around Joplin, Missouri, and some people had to be rescued from inundated cars.Fox Weather reports. Downtown Seneca, Missouri was also flooded out.
Flash flooding was reported in Texas, too.
Overnight, severe storms prompted flash flood warnings in central Kansas, where up to 5.5 inches of rain fell and another one to two inches was expected. Parts of the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee Valley are at risk for flash floods today.
For Wednesday night, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center added a marginal risk for flash flooding in northern New York, all but far southern Vermont and northern New Hampshire.
The agency said very humid air and a weather disturbance cold cause some instances of local flash flooding.
Local meteorologists and myself are not too worried about flash flooding tomorrow and tomorrow night. We could easily see some gully washer downpours, but serious flooding looks doubtful.
Most of us will get a half inch or less of rain Wednesday through Thursday. That doesn't scream "flooding." But, thunderstorms could dump much more than that in small, localized areas.
Still, this is Vermont, and we have a long history of flash flooding. Our steep terrain in many areas encourages water to rush out of the hills during torrential rains. Climate change has raised the stakes, as downpours in a warmer world tend to be more intense. Warmer air can hold more water. That water can get released in the right conditions.
Those "right conditions" in Vermont led to severe, destructive and deadly summertime flash floods in 2023 and2024. Less extensive but stillsevere flash floodshit parts of the Northeast Kingdom last summer.
As a result, we're all gun shy and a little bit PTSD-wracked when it comes to flash flood risks across the Green Mountain State. Tis the season to keep a close eye on weather forecasts around here, especially if it's really humid and threatening to storm.
Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, shown here repairing a neighbor's driveway after July's floods, seems to work well with the National Weather Service when coordinating storm emergencies. responses. However, politicians sometimes use the NWS as scapegoats when an emergency response doesn't go as well as hoped.
"It came without warning," is the usual phrase we often hear after a weather disaster. Be it a tornado, wind storm, or flood, somebody will blame a meteorologist for not telling them danger was coming.
It's true that sometimes meteorologists, who are only human practicing an inexact science, indeed get it wrong. But often, the perception is at odds with the facts.
So it was in Maine last week.
The flood we experienced here in Vermont on December 18-19 was bad enough. In New Hampshire and Maine, it was even worse than what we experienced in the Green Mountain State. This was likely the second worst flood in Maine history. Only a 1987 flood was worse.
Which brings us to a tiff between Maine Gov. Janet Mills and the National Weather Service.
"'The National Weather Service did not predict five or six inches of rain in any community in Maine,' said Governor Mills Wednesday, speaking at a press conference after touring flood damage in Kennebec County."
But au contraire!
The National Weather Service in Maine rebuffed the governor. The storm was "well-forecasted and communicated in advance, including the potential for rainfall totals of 4-6 inches with localized areas receiving higher amounts," says the NWS.
The NWS noted that it provided forecasts and briefings to local and state officials starting on December 15, more than two full days before the disaster struck.
"In advance for the hazards that were likely to occur on Monday, December 18, NWS forecasters informed local and state officials in the days leading up to the storm through daily email briefing packages, direct phone conversation and virtual city and statewide briefings."
The NWS continued in their statement:
"The first flood watch and high wind watch were issued on Saturday afternoon, two full days before the storm. The state of Maine hosts a coordination call Sunday afternoon with NWS forecast offices in Gray and Caribou briefing on the expected flood, wind and coastal flood impacts. Rain began on Sunday bight, and by Monday morning NWS offices had issue flood warnings."
As you can see, the National Weather Service keeps all their receipts. There are many good reasons for this: Those receipts can clear up misinformation regarding their forecasts.
This really came in handy back in 2019, when then-president Trump said Hurricane Dorian was going to hit Alabama. A National Weather Service office in Alabama refuted Trump's claim. When they got annoying blowback(including through theinfamous hurricane Sharpie map) from Trump and his MAGA minions, the National Weather Service was able to prove how their Dorian forecasts evolved. The NWS showed how and why they reassured Alabamans that the storm would be no threat to them.
There's another important reason for all those NWS receipts after a severe weather event. If their storm predictions turned out to be even a little inaccurate, the National Weather Service can use its huge paper trails to figure out went wrong to improve future forecasts. And how to better communicate with local and state leaders, not to mention the public.
The comments by Maine Gov. Janet Mills were not nearly as egregious as what Trump did there. Her criticism was pretty mild and fleeting. It didn't involve any direct interference in their operations. Politicians almost never go that far. Still, politicians will sometimes blame the meteorologists and their messengers if they mishandle a weather emergency.
Those politicians know screwing up a storm response can end their careers. Or enhance their careers, if they handle the emergency deftly. (To be fair to the Maine governor, the National Weather Service offices in Maine DID warn of strong winds, but those winds were slightly stronger than forecast).
Still, efforts by politicians to blame supposedly inaccurate weather forecasts are a tried and true way to go.
When flash flooding from former Hurricane Ida inundated New York City and took 13 lives of residents in the process, then-mayor Bill de Blasio said, 'Here's what we did not know, that we would have literally shocking and unprecedented rainfall," the mayor said after the storm. "No one projected that coming."
Much more recently, just ahead of, during and after the state's devastating July floods, Gov. Phil Scott kept going out of the way urging Vermonters to take NWS weather forecasts and warnings seriously.
The day before the floods July 10 floods hit, Scott used National Weather Service's (accurate!) forecasts to declare a state of emergency, deploy swift water rescue teams around the state and warn people to be on guard and to take NWS flood warnings seriously.
The combination of the NWS flood forecasts, the Scott administration's reaction to those forecasts and media attention to all this likely saved lives. Two people died in the summer floods, which is obviously tragic. But a disaster of that magnitude "should have" created more fatalities. It didn't. The coordinated weather warnings between the NWS and Vermont leaders surely helped.
The December floods were a bit more complicated. Rainfall was slightly more than the NWS predicted and snowmelt was slightly more intense than expected. So the flooding that emerged that Monday was worse, somewhat catching the Scott administration by surprise.
But by late morning and early afternoon that day, Vermont emergency managers were on top of it. So was the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
The bottom line is, the next time you hear politicians and even the public say the "storm came with no warning," check out the receipts from the National Weather Service. Sometimes they do botch a forecast, or don't issue a timely warning. But often, they're just a convenient scapegoat.
This day care center with 70 children inside was destroyed by the tornado in Selma, Alabama. Miraculously, one child suffered minor injuries and the rest were unscathed as day care workers hustled the kids into protected areas of the building.
This is a bad start to the year in terms of tornadoes.
That outbreak of twisters Thursday in the Southeastkilled at least nine people and left a long trail of destruction from Mississippi to Kentucky to Georgia.
A large chunk of the damage and deaths were created by one long-lasting, intense supercell thunderstorm that traveled roughly500 miles from Louisiana into Georgia,spitting out several tornadoes along the way. One of those tornadoes mauled Selma, Alabama.
Selma, known for its civil rights history, suffered widespread damage through several neighborhoods, including part of downtown, just as the Martin Luther King Jr. weekend got underway.
Some of those tornadoes that thunderstorm produced were quite strong. The one responsible for the deaths northeast of Selma was an EF-3, meaning it had winds of 136 to 165 mph. The Selma tornado was deemed an EF-2, with winds of 111 to 135 mph.
The tornadoes extended into Georgia. The town of Griffin was hit hard, with several homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. News video showed the roof of the Hobby Lobby store in Griffin torn off.
Wintertime tornado outbreaks happen from time to time in the South. The region's proximity to the Gulf of Mexico means under some conditions, warm, very humid air can flood the Southeast, even in the dead of winter. That sets the stage for severe weather if a storm system approaches.
This one was one of the stronger January swarms of twisters that I can remember in both the number of tornadoes and number of deaths for the opening month of the year. At last check, there were 53 reports of tornadoes in seven states on Thursday.
On average, about 80 people die in tornadoes yearly, but there's a lot of variability from year to year. Given that the bulk of these deaths normally occur between April and June, we're off to a bad start in 2023.
Recent winter outbreaks, including this one, might have been made worse by unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn is caused by climate change. Data shows there has been an upward trend in January tornadoes in the United States.
As I mentioned, tornado outbreaks need warm, humid air to develop. If the Gulf is warmer than usual, the air can in turn become warmer and hold more moisture. The warmer, wetter air can supply additional fuel for potential tornado swarms.
The link between increased winter tornadoes and climate change is still under a bit of dispute, but anecdotally, things are getting worse with tornadoes in the winter.
Two major twister swarms within a week in December, 2021 in the South and Midwest. The first of them on December 10 killed 80 people in and near Kentucky. The second, on December 15, part of a strange and super strong Plains storm system, unleashed arecord breaking 120 tornadoesacross the Midwest, an area that almost never sees winter twisters. .
In recent months, destructive tornadoes swarms have struck in mid-December, killing three people in the South. Nearly 50 mostly weak tornadoes hit on January 2-4 in the South.
We might not be done with this January's tornados just yet. It's possible more severe weather will break outin the Gulf Coast states during the middle of the upcoming week.
Large tornado on the ground near Selma, Alabama today. Photo via Twitter, @wsfa12news
Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms over-performed in the southeastern United States this afternoon, causing some pretty intense destruction in some communities, especially in Alabama.
One especially strong, long lasting tornado roared across central Alabama in the late morning and early afternoon.
The historic city of Selma, Alabama was hit particularly hard, with widespread damage reported on the northern part of downtown and across much of the western part of town, AL.com reported.
A storm chaser in Selma said the damage path was up to a mile wide.
Reports are just coming in, and the scene was still chaotic as of this mid-afternoon, so we don't have news of any deaths or injuries.
Television station WSFA was reporting at least one person trapped in debris and another person possibly missing. Residents of Selma were told to stay home and avoid the damage area.
Video and photos on social media showed numerous houses in and around Selma without roofs, collapsed buildings, and what appears to be an out of control fire. Other video showed a large tornado moving through the area.
The tornado was well-warned, as the National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama warned residents to take cover in advance of the "confirmed, large and destructive tornado."
The supercell responsible for the main tornado moved into western Georgia before 4 p.m.,prompting additional tornado warnings, along with the threat of ferocious straight-line winds and large hail.
Another radar-confirmed tornado was sweeping through parts of Atlanta, Georgia shortly before 4 p.m. today.
Other possible tornadoes were reported in Mississippi and Kentucky. Baseball sized hail struck parts of western Kentucky in the pre-dawn hours.
Before 4 p.m. tornado watches were extended eastward to cover much of Georgia and northwestern Florida.
Severe tornado damage in Selma, Alabama. Photo by Marissa Giles, via Twitter @Spann
The severe weather was more extensive than forecasts from a few days earlier suggested. But the right conditions came together to unleash the dangerous storms.
Tornado outbreaks do sometimes occur in the Gulf Coast states and Southeast during the middle of winter. They are close to a key ingredient for severe weather - very warm and very wet air from the Gulf of Mexico.
If a dynamic winter storm passes by to the north and west, it will pull that toasty, humid air into the Southeast. Then, as the parent storm's cold front approaches, changes in wind speed and direction can create supercells and tornadoes.
The parent storm's cold front will exit the southeastern coast later tonight and tomorrow morning, and that will end the tornado threat in this region.
House destroyed by tornado in Alabama Thursday. Photo by Butch Hill
As expected, Thursday was a horrible, tragic day in the South, with so far five confirmed death from tornadoes. Videos at the bottom of this post.
Tragic weather in the South, and active weather here in Vermont, for sure. As usual, we'll get into the Vermont weather in a bit, but we'll grab the national weather news of the day first:
SOUTHERN TORNADOES
As forecasters had feared, at least two of the tornadoes were intense, long lasting and fast moving.
One tornado tracked from near Tuscaloosa to the Birmingham metro area early in the afternoon.
Another large tornado raced across central and northeastern Alabama in the late afternoon and evening. Radar images showed this tornado hoisting debris into the air for a good hour as it plowed through the state. At least two supercells thunderstorms traveled at least 100 miles, with tornadoes on the ground for almost all of that distance.
Yesterday, I notedthat the home of revered Alabama meteorologist and tornado expert James Spann was hit by a tornado. His wife was home, but received her husband's tornado warning and went into a storm shelter the couple had installed to withstand the strongest tornadoes.
She's fine, and Spann later reported that damage to his home wasn't as bad as initially feared, and not as bad as some homes in the neighborhood, which were extensively damaged or destroyed.
After learning his wife was safe, Spann returned to the air, and provided many more hours of storm coverage.
After that, severe weather should go pretty quiet for a few days at least.
VERMONT IMPACTS
Expect a LOT of changes in the weather for the next few days. We will be roller-coastering, which is fairly typical for this time of year.
Crocuses enjoying record warmth in my St. Albans, Vermont yard on Thursday.
Thursday was certainly one for the record books. Burlington had a high of 73 degrees, besting the old record for the date by five degrees.
Plattsburgh, New York soared to an impressive 76 degrees, beating the old record for the date by a whopping 11 degrees.
Other places around here set high temperature records by wide margins. Montpelier reached 70 degrees, besting the old record by six degrees. St. Johnsbury got up to 69 degrees, shattering the old record of 57.
Temperatures were remarkably warm for this time of year as dawn broke. Most of Vermont was in the 50s.
Although a flood watch remains in effect, rainfall has so far been a disappointment as of early this morning.
The first wave of rain that was due to come in has, as of 7 a.m., produced less than a tenth of an inch of rain in most of Vermont, although the far north has had a bit more. A little more rain was coming through as I write this.
We still have shots at more rain today, so it won't be as if we completely missed out on needed rain.
The flood watch is out mostly due to runoff from snow in the mountains, aided and abetted by what rain we do get. The upper reaches of the Missisquoi River up near North Troy are under a flood warning, as minor flooding has been noted up there.
Things are still looking pretty interesting this afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. A few storms are forecast to become strong. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has kept Vermont in a marginal risk for severe storms today. That means there could be isolated damaging wind gusts.
As I mentioned last evening, the Storm Prediction Center has a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in Vermont today. I'll stress that the chances of that happening are quite slim. If there's any localized damage from strong thunderstorm wind gusts this afternoon, it will almost certainly be from straight-line winds.
Speaking of wind, you'll notice over the next week or so it'll be frequently windy. Those March winds will close out the month and continue on into April. Behind the cold front this evening and tonight, strong northwest winds will drive in much colder air, but nothing weird for late March.
That new storm coming in Sunday will give us another slug of rain, and also perhaps some gusty south winds that day. But at least it will be sort of mild for this time of year - low 50s.
Then, as the storm strengthens near and northeast of Maine, we'll get another blast of northwest winds Sunday night and Monday. We'll probably even see a little back-side snow out of this, but accumulations won't amount to much. Still, Monday will be raw.
Then, we go well above normal with temperatures again, going to 60 degrees or better by Wednesday. Then, another windy storm system, and back to March chill to open up April late next week.
Tornado videos:
A twister roaring through Pelham, Alabama Thursday:
People in this truck were trying to drive to a tornado shelter when the tornado caught up with them. Very luckily, they're fine. But probably in the market for new underwear:
News report from the Eagle Point subdivision near Birmingham. Some substantial brick homes leveled, while houses next door are OK:
This house collapsed during a tornado southeast of Birmingham, Alabama today. It's one of many homes wrecked by an ongoing severe tornado outbreak. Occupants of this house heard tornado warnings, took shelter in the basement and were rescued.
It's turning out to be a terrible day in Alabama, with many reports of large, damaging tornadoes. Some of them are hitting highly populated areas. Early forecasts turned out to be correct.
Television station ABC33/40 in Birmingham has already confirmed three deaths from tornadoes in the town of Ohatchee.
One tornado swept through subdivisions just southeast of Birmingham earlier this afternoon. By late afternoon, another confirmed tornado was tearing through northeastern part of Birmingham proper.
The earlier tornado near Birmingham literally hit home for ABC33/40 meteorologist James Spann.
Spann is one of the nation's leading experts on tornadoes and is beloved in Alabama. His relentless, plain spoken broadcasts during tornadoes have saved many lives.
Spann was on the air describing the warnings as usual when he stepped off camera, having another meteorologist take over. He was soon back with this scary explanation:
"The reason I had to step out, we had major damage at my house......My wife is OK, but the tornado came right through there and it's not good, it's bad. It's bad."
With that, Spann went back to keeping up with the tornado warnings and alerting viewers to all the danger areas.
As I write this at 6 p.m. Thursday evening, tornadoes are on going in and around Alabama and that is expected to continue through the evening.
Details on what damage they are causing are still not in. But radar images suggest very large, intense, long lasting tornadoes.
I'll certainly have an update in tomorrow morning's post.
VERMONT IMPACTS
As expected, we experienced record high temperatures today. That storm that's affecting the South is still headed our way.
The forecast for the morning part of the storm is still the same: We should get a few hours of moderate or even briefly heavy rain.
Not something you ever see in March until now. NOAA's Storm Predicting Center has a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in and near Vermont Friday afternoon.
Then there's a break while we wait for the afternoon cold front with this storm. Next, we have an interesting twist.
A marginal risk is the lowest level of five categories and means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. We have marginal risks relatively frequently in the summer, but it's rare in March.
It's doubtful one will happen but you never know. We do see those minimal risks for twisters once or twice a year in the late spring and summer. But I've never heard of this in March!
The main threat from any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow will be isolated damaging wind gusts. Nothing widespread.
Area in pink is under a high risk of tornadoes today and tonight The broad red area surrounding the pink also has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.
UPDATE: 12:30 p.m. EDT
The National Weather Service at this out is expected at any minute to issue a special type of tornado warning called a Particular Dangerous Situation warning.
This is reserved for the rare times when a weather hazard is especially, super life-threatening.
All the ingredients seem to be coming together, especially in Mississippi and Alabama, for a prolonged period this afternoon and tonight with a strong risk of intense, long-lasting tornadoes.
There is one area in particular along the Mississippi/Alabama border where
That is really an extraordinarily high risk, among the top probabilities on record. This is only the sixth time in the past 15 years in which there was such a high risk.
I honestly don't know how we're going to get through today and tonight without tornado fatalities. Just praying the strongest, longest lasting tornadoes stay out over rural, open country.
This tragic show should begin by mid-afternoon.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, were roaming around parts of Texas and Oklahoma early this morning, clueing us in to what will be a dangerous tornado day in many southern U.S. states.
I already saw at least one tornado warning in Arkansas before dawn today.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) pasted a high risk zone for severe weather,including the likelihood of strong, long-tracked tornadoes in an area centered around Mississippi.
The SPC has five alert levels for severe storms, "high" obviously signaling the biggest danger.
High risk storm alerts are fairly rare, only being issued on average once or twice a year.
A broad area encompassing most of Alabama, much of Louisiana and Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee is in almost as strong a risk for large, dangerous tornadoes today and tonight.
The risk is so great that tornado shelters are opening for people in Mississippi and Alabama today. The governor of Alabama has already declared a state of emergencyahead of the storms. This move activates emergency response centers, among other things.
A number of school districts have either shut down classes for the day or will have early dismissals. They don't want kids in vulnerable schools, or worse out on the highway in school buses, during tornadoes.
People are also being urged to have bicycle or motorcycle helmets in their safe spaces to wear if debris falls during a tornado. It's also helpful to have an air horn with you. If you can't get out, rescuers will find you if you're blowing that horn.
If you have friends and relatives in the South, let them know now about the risk, especially if they tend not to be weather aware.
THE POVERTY FACTOR
As meteorologist and severe storms expert Stephen M. Strader pointed out on Twitter last evening, the highest risk of tornadoes coincides with a zone where there is a lot of poverty. Strader calls the situation "a recipe for fatalities."
Think about it. People who have money live in sturdier homes, often with basements where they can take shelter in a tornado. They have many ways to receive tornado warnings, such as weather radios, phone apps and big screen TVs. They can move temporarily into a hotel if their home is damaged. They have insurance. They have sick leave at work, so on a stormy day, they can hunker down.
Many poor people live in flimsy structures, often mobile homes. They might not have access to weather radios or phone apps. The areas under the gun today and tonight in Mississippi and Alabama has some of the highest concentration of mobile homes in the nation.
People who live in mobile homes are being urged to leave now, and go to tornado shelters or to friends and relatives who live in sturdy buildings.
However, low-wage people often aren't allowed to take time off from work, or don't get paid if they don't show up. Somebody's got to take care of the kids. They don't have the money to gas up the car and waltz into some shelter. So, they'll take their chances and stay put in their mobile homes.
There's Strader's recipe for fatalities. This is all another excellent argument in favor of a living wage for Americans.
MULTIFACETED DANGER
A lot of other factors make today and tonight's expected tornado outbreak dangerous.
Another much more significant threat of powerful supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes this afternoon, and another round of powerful storms and likely tornadoes tonight.
The forward motion of the storms today and tonight will be quick. So that means less lead time between the time warnings are issued and the moment when the tornado hits.
Risk for more damaging tornadoes continues tomorrow, especially for the area depicted in red
Since there will be multiple areas of dangerous storms happening all at once, who's getting hit where and who's in danger at the moment will be confusing, especially for the public who might not know which county they live in, or exactly where the warning is.
The National Weather Service and local meteorologists do a fantastic job with warnings, but they have only so much control over how people react to the warnings.
As I've pointed out before, when people receive tornado warnings, it's human nature to seek visual confirmation a tornado is coming. Do you see a funnel cloud? Is there debris in the air? When you get a tornado warning, you're not supposed to go out and look for the twister. But people do.
In this weather situation, common in the South, the tornadoes are often hidden behind dense bursts of rain, so you can't see them. There's a lot of trees and hills in the South, so that blocks the view of oncoming tornadoes, too.
As I noted yesterday, many of the strongest tornadoes with this likely outbreak will hit well into the night, when people are sleeping. It's harder to warn people of danger at that hour.
House destroyed by last night's tornado in Fultondale, Alabama. Photo via television station WVTM
The nation's first significant and deadly tornado of the year struck Fultondale, Alabama overnight, killing at least one person, injuring others and leaving a trail of damage.
According to AL.com,the tornado struck around 10:30 p.m. last night near Interstate 65, wrecking several homes and businesses, including an occupied Hampton Inn.
The reported death came at a home in which the occupants had taken proper tornado precautions.
The family received a tornado warning and retreated to the basement. But a tree fell on the house, and collapsed the entire thing, slamming debris onto the people in the basement.
A teenager died, and several family members were critically injured, says Al.com.
Rescuers were going house to house overnight, looking for trapped people. At least 20 people were taken to hospitals for treatment of injuries.
Images on social media showed trucks tossed around at a freight company, the collapsed Hampton Inn, and several roofless and collapsed houses.
This hotel was wrecked by a tornado in Fultindale, Alabama last night. Photo via WVTM
Last night's tornado seems to have been caused by a long-tracked supercell thunderstorm that crossed most of Mississippi before entering Alabama and hitting Fultondale.
There might have been other, smaller tornadoes overnight, and investigators will look into that today.
Tornadoes are actually relatively common in the Deep South during this time of year, as winter storms passing by to the north pull wet, unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico into places like Alabama.
PARENT STORM AND US
The storm that spawned the Alabama twister also dumped heavy snow on Nebraska and Iowa, tying up traffic and closing schools. More than a foot of snow fell along the Missouri River on the Nebraska and Iowa border
The storm also triggered flash flooding in parts of Kentucky.
This parent storm is now weakening as it heads east, but is or will drop a stripe of snow from Iowa to New England. Freezing rain is also causing a lot of problems in Pennsylvania this morning.
This little storm has dropped an unremarkable 0.3 inches of snow on Washington DC, its first measurable snow fall of the season.
Here in Vermont, this weakening storm should still crank out two to five inches of snow in southern parts of the state, with spot accumulations of up to six inches in the mountains. A winter weather advisory for snowis in effect basically along and south of Route 4.
Northern parts of Vermont should just get and a dusting to three inches late today through tomorrow morning. Nothing huge, but it will freshen the snow cover out there a bit
We're still expecting an Arctic blast here Friday and Saturday, but it won't last long. In fact, as we head into early February, it looks like temperatures might bounce back above normal again.
Hurricane Sally made landfall early this morning right around Gulf Shores, Alabama. Based on early videos from news outlets and social media, there's once again LOTS of damage with this one.
Inside a home flooded by Hurricane Sally in Foley, Alabama this morning. Photo by Cambri Radford via Twitter
Following a trend this hurricane season, Sally strengthened some just prior to landfall. Top sustained winds had been holding near 85 mph during the day Tuesday, but ramped up to 105 mph just before landfall.
Reports from Gulf Shores are that lots of people were calling 911 for help early this morning and authorities just couldn't get to them because of the conditions. Early reports indicate many people, possibly thousands, are trapped by flooding. I definitely worry about fatalities.
It's rather unusual for a hurricane to get more intense just before landfall. More often than not, some land interaction will either weaken a hurricane or at least prevent it from getting stronger. This is especially true with hurricanes with a very slow forward speed.
That is certainly true with Sally. It's forward speed was 2 mph most of the day and at landfall. That's the average forward speed of an 80 year old person walking.
This year, hurricanes have been worryingly strengthening as they made landfall. In the 24 hours before landfall.
According to hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach, Hurricane Hanna went fro 50 to 90 mph in Texas. Isaias went from 70 to 85 mph on the East Coast. Laura went from 105 to 150 mph in southwest Louisiana. Nana went from 60 to 75 mph in Belize. Paulette went from 75 to 90 mph in Bermuda, and Sally went from 85 to 105 mph in Alabama.
Plus we remember Hurricane Michael rapidly intensifying to a Category 5 storm in the Florida panhandle as it made landfall in 2018, with disastrous results.
I'm not sure why we've had this trend in recent year. I'm sure we'll learn more from the scientists soon.
"I want to underscore that rapid intensification of hurricanes along coasts may be a new reality in this climate-warmed era, so rather than be surprised or outraged, I think people have to adjust to ew normal. Just because you lived through 'so and so' may not cut it anymore."
Sally, of course, isn't nearly done. As advertised, Sally is dumping incredible amounts of rain. Its slow forward motion means the rain can dump for a longer period of time than usual in a hurricane. Reports from near Pensacola, Florida indicate two feet of rain already and torrential downpours continue. To nobody's surprise, flooding is way, way severe and getting worse.
Downtown Pensacola was inundated this morning due to a combination of storm surge and the torrential rains.
Hurricane Sally onshore this morning in northwest Florida
More than 30 inches of rain seems likely to accumulate in the path of the storm.
Sally's winds will rapidly diminish today, but the torrential rains will continue on as the storm crawls northeastward into the Carolinas. Extensive flooding will hit Georgia and the Carolinas in the next couple of days.
For those of you who are wondering, Sally will have absolutely no effects on the weather here in Vermont.
