"Norlun Trough" Gives Part Of Maine A SUPER White Christmas

A Norlun trough, the dotted orange line on this map
from the storm off New England to southern Maine and 
beyond, caused heavy snow in parts of coastal Maine
Image from YouTube, Tim Kelley

 Northern New England is enjoying a white Christmas thanks to a mid-sized storm that passed through the region Tuesday and part of Wednesday.  

A section of Maine is really buried in the snow thanks to an unusual and hard to forecast phenomenon known as a Norlun Trough. 

We're geeking out a little, but here's what happened. 

As WMTW in Portland, Maine tells us, this trough is named after Steve Nogueira and Weir Lunstedt, two meteorologists who coined the term in a 1993 paper describing the phenomenon.  

They were researching a storm that dumped one to two feet of snow in parts of Maine in March, 1992. 

A Norlun trough is an elongated trough of low pressure extending outward on the northwest side of a storm sitting offshore.

The air over the ocean is cold, except for a thin layer near the surface which is heated by the relatively warm water. 

The trough is essentially a weakness in that fortress of cold air keeping that warm ocean air near the water surface. The warm ocean air shoots upward into that weakness/trough. It hits cold air above, and the moisture condenses into snow and blasts down on a small area along the Norlun trough.

More warm ocean air gets sucked into the vacuum created by that initial sharp updraft to keep the snow going. Heavy snow will fall in one spot until the Norlun trough moves away or breaks up. 

Norlun troughs are very hard to forecast, since they drop their heavy snow in a very small area. The National Weather Service office in Gray, Maine did manage to anticipate the Norlun trough Monday evening. Their forecast discussion at that time forecasted two to six inches so snow in most places. 

The forecast discussion also noted, "A Norlun trough setup may bring isolated amounts of up to a lot somewhere on the central Maine coast."

They underestimated it a little, but forecasters almost always do. But kudos to NWS/Gray for catching in advance. That doesn't always happen. 

Wednesday's Maine Norland trough meant business. Brunswick, Maine was buried beneath 16.8 inches of snow. Durham and Litchfield, Maine reported 15.5 inches. Freeport has about 16 inches. But just 20 miles away, around Portland, there was just five or six inches of new snow.  

Norlun troughs can extend inland all the way here into Vermont but their effects are often diminished this far inland.  I notices the trough Wednesday morning extended into the Northeast Kingdom, and snowfall was slightly higher there than in other parts of the state. 

Twin Storms Devastated Maine Coast, Might Make It Hard To Obtain Lobster

A location in Harpswell, Maine before the
storms this January.........

As we know, the twin windstorms on January 10 and 13 caused a LOT of damage in Vermont. 

But if you think it was bad here, check out coastal Maine. Looking back at last weekend, Maine took a devastating blow.  

As Bangor Daily News reports:

"High water levels in the Gulf of Maine along with heavy winds and heavy rain conspired with the larges high tide of the season to hammer parts of the coast on Saturday. Portland hit a record tide after nearing one in the Wednesday storm. Gusts exceeded 50 mph in many areas while the massive tide came in over the weekend."

That record high tide of 14.57 exceeded the previous record set during the infamous Blizzard of '78 on February 7. 1978.

Damage was widespread and extensive up and down the Maine and New Hampshire coastlines. Some homes and camps were either swept out to sea or destroyed by battering waves or were swept off their foundations. 

Many homes in vacation destinations like Old Orchard Beach, Maine and Hampton Beach, New Hampshire suffered severe damage from the storm surge. 

In just one fishing and tourist town - Harpswell - the damage is amounting to several million dollars. 

The Portland Press Herald interviewed a man named Mike Chase who reported that his homeland three businesses were badly damaged by the storm tide. Per the Press Herald:

"Paddle boards and other equipment that he leases at Old Orchard Beach Watersports had floated away. His bait and tackle shop had been submerged in four feet of water. A large ice machine from his lobster roll shack wound up on the other side of the pier parking lot." 

Maine's famed lobster industry suffered awfully in the storm. The damage was most acute to the coastal infrastructure where lobster boats transfer their catch to piers, wharfs, bait houses and warehouses. 

Winter waters along the Maine coast are too rough to fix much of the damage. So the work will have to begin during the spring. Most lobsters are caught between June and the end of November, so the piers and such probably won't be ready by the time lobster season begins in earnest. 

Same location in Harpswell, Maine after the storms.

Lobster men and women and the companies that work with them have their livelihood endangered. For the rest of us, lobsters will probably become more expensive and harder to obtain. 

People tried to  have a sense of humor, though. One restaurant at Boothbay Harbor had nearly a foot of seawater inside the business at Saturday's high tide. So workers let lobsters and Jonah crabs out of the tanks and let them play on the flooded restaurant floor. 

 Another issue in Maine is the heartbreaking loss of historic buildings and sites along the coast.  emotional heartbreak. Three fishing shacks that had stood since the 1800s and been the subject of countless photographs were swept out to sea and destroyed. 

The shacks are probably going to be rebuilt because last year, architects made detailed drawings of the shacks and took 360 degree photographs. 

During the earlier storm on January 10, waves washed sand and rocks away, exposing the remains of a 1911 shipwreck. The schooner ran aground in a summer storm that year.

Maine has really been hit hard this winter, much more so than even here in storm-battered Vermont. The flooding on December 18-19 in Maine was even worse than what we experienced in Vermont. The two storms on January 10 and 13 blasted the Maine and New Hampshire coasts much more than along points south.

The January storms will go down in history as arguably the most destructive on record along the immediate Maine coast. I'd say they're  right up there with the Portland Gale of 1898 and Saxby's Gale of 1869.

Climate change is increasing the risk of more powerful, more dangerous storms. As in so many other parts of the world, that fact is setting Maine residents on edge. Sure, they'll repair the damage along the coast. But will those fixes be destroyed again sooner or later? 

Climate change is making life on the New England coast riskier and riskier.  

VIDEOS:

A cabin pulled into the water at Owl Head, Maine on Saturday is battered by waves and a surging tide. As always, click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Historic fishing shacks dating back to the 1800s shown here being swept away by the storm surge: Click here or view below.

 

Tension Between Politicians And Meteorologists Boils Over Again, This Time In Maine

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, shown here repairing
a neighbor's driveway after July's floods,
seems to work well with the National 
Weather Service when coordinating storm
emergencies. responses. However,
politicians sometimes use the NWS as
scapegoats when an emergency response
doesn't go as well as hoped. 

 "It came without warning," is the usual phrase we often hear after a weather disaster. Be it a tornado, wind storm, or flood, somebody will blame a meteorologist for not telling them danger was coming.

It's true that sometimes meteorologists, who are only human practicing an inexact science, indeed get it wrong. But often, the perception is at odds with the facts.  

So it was in Maine last week. 

The flood we experienced here in Vermont on December 18-19 was bad enough. In New Hampshire and Maine, it was even worse than what we experienced in the Green Mountain State. This was likely the second worst flood in Maine history. Only a 1987 flood was worse.

Which brings us to a tiff between Maine Gov. Janet Mills and the National Weather Service.

As the Bangor Daily News reports:

"'The National Weather Service did not predict five or six inches of rain in any community in Maine,' said Governor Mills Wednesday, speaking at a press conference after touring flood damage in Kennebec County."

But au contraire!

The National Weather Service in Maine rebuffed the governor. The storm was "well-forecasted and communicated in advance, including the potential for rainfall totals of 4-6 inches with localized areas receiving higher amounts," says the NWS.

The NWS noted that it provided forecasts and briefings to local and state officials starting on December 15, more than two full days before the disaster struck. 

"In advance for the hazards that were likely to occur on Monday, December 18, NWS forecasters informed local and state officials in the days leading up to the storm through daily email briefing packages, direct phone  conversation and virtual city and statewide briefings."

The NWS continued in their statement:

"The first flood watch and high wind watch were issued on Saturday afternoon, two full days before the storm. The state of Maine hosts a coordination call Sunday afternoon with NWS forecast offices in Gray and Caribou briefing on the expected flood, wind and coastal flood impacts. Rain began on Sunday bight, and by Monday morning NWS offices had issue flood warnings."

As you can see, the National Weather Service keeps all their receipts. There are many good reasons for this: Those receipts can clear up misinformation regarding their forecasts. 

This really came in handy back in 2019, when then-president Trump said Hurricane Dorian was going to hit Alabama. A National Weather Service office in Alabama refuted Trump's claim. When they got annoying blowback (including through the infamous hurricane Sharpie map) from Trump and his MAGA minions, the National Weather Service was able to prove how their Dorian forecasts evolved. The NWS showed how and why they reassured Alabamans that the storm would be no threat to them. 

There's another important reason for all those NWS receipts after a severe weather event.  If their storm predictions turned out to be even a little inaccurate, the National Weather Service  can use its huge paper trails to figure out went wrong to improve future forecasts. And how to better communicate with local and state leaders, not to mention the public. 

The comments by Maine Gov. Janet Mills were not nearly as egregious as what Trump did there. Her criticism was pretty mild and fleeting. It didn't involve any direct interference in their operations. Politicians almost never go that far. Still,   politicians will sometimes blame the meteorologists and their messengers if they mishandle a weather emergency. 

Those politicians know screwing up a storm response can end their careers. Or enhance their careers, if they handle the emergency deftly. (To be fair to the Maine governor, the National Weather Service offices in Maine DID warn of strong winds, but those winds were slightly stronger than forecast).

Still, efforts by politicians to blame supposedly inaccurate weather forecasts are a tried and true way to go.

When flash flooding from former Hurricane Ida inundated New York City and took 13 lives of residents in the process, then-mayor Bill de Blasio said, 'Here's what we did not know, that we would have literally shocking and unprecedented rainfall," the mayor said after the storm.  "No one projected that coming."

Only they did. The National Weather Service and other local meteorologists spent the days and hours ahead of the Ida flash flood pulling their hair out telling the public that the flooding would be especially severe and scary. 

Here in Vermont, it seems like the state's political leaders have a good working relationship with the National Weather Service. 

Prior to the Hurricane Irene floods in 2011, then-governor Peter Shumlin activated the state's emergency management center. He repeated NWS warnings of impeding severe floods. 

Much more recently, just ahead of, during and after the state's devastating July floods, Gov. Phil Scott kept going out of the way urging Vermonters to take NWS weather forecasts and warnings seriously. 

The day before the floods July 10 floods hit, Scott used National Weather Service's (accurate!) forecasts to declare a state of emergency, deploy swift water rescue teams around the state and warn people to be on guard and to take NWS flood warnings seriously. 

The combination of the NWS flood forecasts, the Scott administration's reaction to those forecasts and media attention to all this likely saved lives. Two people died in the summer floods, which is obviously tragic. But a disaster of that magnitude "should have" created more fatalities. It didn't. The coordinated weather warnings between the NWS and Vermont leaders surely helped. 

The December floods were a bit more complicated. Rainfall was slightly more than the NWS predicted and snowmelt was slightly more intense than expected. So the flooding that emerged that Monday was worse, somewhat catching the Scott administration by surprise. 

But by late morning and early afternoon that day, Vermont emergency managers were on top of it. So was the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

The bottom line is, the next time you hear politicians and even the public say the "storm came with no warning," check out the receipts from the National Weather Service. Sometimes they do botch a forecast, or don't issue a timely warning. But often, they're just a convenient scapegoat.  

Lee Batters Maine More Than Expected, Vermont Surprisingly Pleasant

The last of the clouds from Storm Lee leaving 
Vermont Saturday evening had the look of finely
textured marble. 

Former Hurricane Lee is now making its way out of southeastern Canada, fading near the cold waters of the North Atlantic and into history. 

The storm made landfall Saturday about 50 miles southeast of Eastport Maine in an area of New Brunswick, Canada. It skirted just a few miles west of the western tip of Nova Scotia before landfall. 

The eastern half of Maine got pummeled more than I expected. One death was reported when a large tree limb fell on a car in Searsport, Maine. 

Maine is the most heavily wooded state in the nation, so the high winds on soggy ground were able to take down a lot of trees. Some of which hit power lines. Around 11 percent of Maine residents lost power in the storm. Over in Nova Scotia, more than a quarter of the province's population had no electricity, according to the Associated Press.  

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, which isn't really that far from the tropical storm zone, got off even easier than the already optimistic forecasts ahead of the storm. 

Wind gusts had been forecast to be in the 30 to 40 mph range, but ended up being quite a bit less than that. Top wind speed in Burlington Saturday was an underwhelming 28 mph. 

Skies began to clear in parts of the state during the afternoon. The late afternoon and evening in western Vermont proved to be one of the nicest of the summer. 

Temperatures were perfect. Instead of annoying gusts, we had pleasant, soft light breezes.  . The skies were a deep blue, mixed with some finally, pretty, textured high clouds from the remnants of Lee's outflow. 

A NEW ENGLAND MISS OF SORTS

It's true Maine was pretty trashed by Lee, but this storm was yet another miss from a would-be hurricane in New England.  Lee was considered post-tropical by the time in neared Maine and Nova Scotia. And it made landfall just over the U.S. border in Canada. That means New England has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since Hurricane Bob in 1991.  

Irene in 2011 was a tropical storm - a particularly destructive one - by the time it hit New England, so it doesn't count as a hurricane. Floyd in 1999,  Isaias in 2020 and a few others were also former hurricanes, when they hit New England, but were downgraded by the time they got here. 

That's an awfully long time for us to avoid a hurricane. And puts New Englanders out of practice as to how to deal with a hurricane. True, we get big nor'easters which are also intense storms, but hurricanes usually have worse storm surges, more intense winds and heavier rain that nor'easters. 

That 1991 Hurricane Bob is an example of what an happen with a New England hurricane. It was a category two storm at landfall in Rhode Island. The storm killed more than a dozen people and caused $1.5 billion in damage. 

Any hurricane hitting New England would probably be as bad as Hurricane Bob, really. 

OTHER STORMS

While we were focusing on Lee, two other tropical systems have been bubbling along.  For a time Hurricane Margot was moving north in tandem with Lee, but it was several hundred miles to the east of that system. Since then, Margot has declined into a tropical storm, and should completely fall apart in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean today or tomorrow.

Elsewhere, as the old, obnoxious song by XTC goes, we're only making plans for Nigel.  But not that many plans, since Tropical Storm Nigel so far doesn't appear to be much of a threat, either. Nigel is expected to quickly grow into a hurricane, and a fairly strong one at that. But it will move north through the central Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the United States or Canada.

Another cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to move westward off the coast of Africa this week and that one will probably grow into a tropical storm or hurricane. It's way, way, way too soon to know what that thing will do.  

Saturday Lee Update: For Vermont, More Entertaining Than Dangerous

 If we have to be affected by a hurricane or tropical storm in Vermont, this is the way to do it. 

The setting sun shining into high clouds streaming off 
from Hurricane Lee Friday evening lit up 
the skies over St. Albans, Vermont. 

What was once Hurricane Lee, as expected, threw a bunch of high clouds overhead in Vermont Saturday, leading to a kinda interesting sky during much of the day. That led to a gorgeous sunset.

There is a chance we might have a repeat nice sunset this evening. It depends upon how Lee's shield of high clouds that's over us now behaves. 

Lee is not even considered a tropical system anymore.  It does have a warm core, still, which tropical storms have. But on satellite, the clouds with Lee are not circular anymore, but more of a comma shape you see with regular storms. It's also developing a cold and warm front. 

This technicality doesn't matter much on the ground. I don't want to minimize the effects Lee is having on eastern Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick where storm damage is ongoing today from near-hurricane force wind gusts and storm surges.

This won't be as bad up there as Hurricane Fiona last year, but it will still sting.

For us in Vermont, we get off with barely a worry. 

GUSTS ARE COMING

After all the weather drama we've had in Vermont this year, it's nice to see a major weather system not create havoc. Lee might cause some minor inconveniences around here today, but I hardly think this will cause yet another disaster declaration in the Green Mountain State. 

At dawn today, they're barely a breeze in Vermont, thanks to a temperature inversion that often sets up at night. That was mixing out and by mid morning, gusts were ramping up, and will hit the 30 to 40 mph range in many spots across the Green Mountain State.  

 hat's enough to create a few very isolated power outages around the state, but most of us will be fine. 

Gusts in that range are pretty common in Vermont during the winter and usually don't lead to anything noteworthy. But the trees are bare during gusty winter storms in January. 

This time of year, the trees are still leafed out. Each leaf acts like a little sale, pulling trees sideways during gusty weather. That can pull a few trees down. Especially since the ground is still soggy after our awful summer.  It's easier to uproot trees when the soil is wet.

The sharp line between clear skies and a high overcast
from Hurricane Lee was visible over Georgia, Vermont Friday. 

Again, I want to emphasize this won't be that big a deal.  I'm talking isolated, scattered power outages that will be fixed pretty quickly.  You have a really low chance of losing your electricity, and if it happens, it won't last long. 

Like I've said in previous posts, I'd cancel plans to take your boat onto Lake Champlain or other lakes in Vermont. The water will be too choppy and actually kind of dangerous A lake wind advisory is up today, naturally. 

One thing  you might notice if you hit the web page for the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It will look like the radar is lit up with rain.   Actually, some rain is falling from the high overcast that's with us now. But the north winds with Lee are pulling in some dry air, so that rain will keep evaporating well before it hits the ground. 

There might be just a little bit of rain in the Northeast Kingdom, but that's it. 

VERMONT'S "NICE" TROPICAL STORM

Usually, tropical storms and hurricanes are bad news anywhere, including here in Vermont. We only have to look at the catastrophic floods with Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 and the destruction from the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 for examples.

But there's also rare but real precedent for tropical storms that are either harmless for us, like Lee today, or actually do more good than harm locally.   

In August, 2020, Hurricane Isaias made landfall in North Carolina as a hurricane and went up the East Coast as a tropical storm.  All along the way from North Carolina to New England, Isaias let loose with dozens of tornadoes, and flash flooding along the way. 

However, when it got to Vermont, ti was different. The center of Tropical Storm Isaias went literally right over Rutland on the evening of August 4 on its way northward through Vermont to Quebec. 

The tropical storm dumped heavy rain on Vermont, especially the western half of the state. .But a drought was going on at the time, so Tropical Storm Isaias was a rare happy big storm for Vermont. It did cause a few power outages, but we survived, right? 

Hurricane Lee Closing In On Nova Scotia, Maine

Satellite view from just before dawn shows the first big
band of high clouds from Hurricane Lee approaching
Vermont from the east. 

 You're going to hear about Hurricane Lee "weakening" into a tropical storm or gradually transitioning to a non-tropical system.  

All technically true, but conditions in Nova Scotia and probably eastern Maine are going to devolve into the conditions you'd find in a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. 

It's going to be messy up there. 

Actually, tropical storm warnings are up for all of the immediate east facing coastline of New England, and that big chunk of eastern Maine. 

In Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, they're bracing for storm surges and flooding, but the biggest hazard up there will be those winds that will cause a lot of power outages. Residents have been told to expect outages that could last for days. 

Here in Vermont the Lee forecast is steady state.  Today, we'll see high clouds increase from the south and east. On Saturday, we're still expecting a cloudy, windy day.  Depending on where you are, gusts during Saturday should peak in the 30 to 40 mph range, while sustained winds between gusts will probably be 15 to 20 mph.

It's going to be on the rough on Lake Champlain, with waves on the broad lake up to three feet. So it won't be a great day up there. 

If you're hiking tomorrow, hang on to your hat! Gusts could reach as high as 60 mph on the summits of the Green Mountains. 

So Vermont all in all is still looking at a close shave, but no biggie from Lee. We got lucky. 

We might get lucky from Lee in another respect. I told you how it will the storm will create a high level overcast. Depending on how far west the high cloud shield gets, we have a shot of seeing spectacular sunsets, possibly both this evening and Saturday, too.   

If the dge of the clouds is somewhere in central New York or something like that, the setting sun would light up the high overcast into a wildly colorful evening.  No promises on that, but it's a possibility. 

We've got some additional nice "traditional" September weather coming  up. Sunday will be gorgeous (sunshine and 70).  There might be a little rain Monday and perhaps early Tuesday, but we get into a pretty long, mild, dry stretch of weather after that. 

You know how those storms would seem to stall over us all summer?  This time, a dry, sunny high pressure system will stall around us for a few days. That will be a nice change for sure.  

Vermont Finally Finds Autumn, Will Get Breezy As Hurricane Lee Blows By To East

Satellite view of large Hurricane Lee heading northward
off the East Coast, headed to Nova Scotia or the eastern
tip of Maine by Saturday.

 Southern New England, lately in the cross hairs of severe weather, got socked again Wednesday with more floods and even some reports of possible tornadoes.  

The tornadoes aren't confirmed yet, but evidence is pretty strong that there might have been one or more twisters in Connecticut, Rhode Island and possibly southeastern Massachusetts.

Video taken at a small airport in Smithfield, Rhode Island showed what appeared to be a tornado on the ground. In Scituate, Rhode Island, trees fell in opposite directions, a sign of a possible tornado.

If a tornado is confirmed in Scituate, Rhode Island, it would be the second time in a month the town was hit by a twister. Rhode Island: Tornado Alley. Go figure.

Here in Vermont, we just had some rain showers Wednesday, no biggie.

HURRICANE LEE

Wednesday's bad weather is pretty much out of New England, and now everybody is watching Hurricane Lee, and getting sick of it. At least the vigil is almost over. 

The forecasts for Lee have been pretty consistent, bringing it ashore Saturday in western Nova Scotia. There's still a chance it could land on the nearby eastern tip of Maine. 

The upper Maine coast is under a hurricane watch for the first time since Hurricane Kyle threatened the state in 2008. Hurricane Kyle took a similar path to what is expected out of Lee.  It causes hurricane force gusts in Nova Scotia and produced some flooding in eastern Maine. 

It looks like Hurricane Lee will be something of a rinse and repeat of Kyle. 

Tropical storm watches and warnings extend along most of the New England coast. 

Hurricane Lee will be transitioning to a non-tropical system by the time it reaches Maine or Nova Scotia. Also, top winds might - or might not - be just below hurricane speeds.

Nevertheless the storm spells a lot of trouble on Cape Cod and the Islands, and especially Downeast Maine, Nova Scotia and parts of New Brunswick. 

Nova Scotia in particular does not need this storm.  The Canadian Province is still reeling from destructive wildfires in May and June, extreme flooding in July, and damage from Hurricane Fiona last year. 

With soggy ground and trees still leafed out, officials in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick expect lots of long lasting power outages as many of those trees topple onto power lines.

Eastern Maine is likely to see flooding as well

Hurricane Lee is a large storm with a big zone of strong winds. And storms like Lee that move north into New England or Atlantic Canada tend to grow even larger, so a pretty big area will likely see some tropical storm force gusts.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We're still expecting a windy, rather cloudy Saturday here in the Green Mountain State. The western edge of that large wind field from Hurricane Lee will overspread our area. Many of us, especially for people east of the Green  Mountains could see gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range.

That's not terrible. But since the ground is so soggy and we haven't had much wind this summer, those gusts might take down an isolated tree or two. There might even be a few local, brief power outages, but I don't expect that to be a big deal.

Larger lakes, especially Lake Champlain could have some issues with waves and choppy seas, so Saturday is the wrong day for a boat ride on the lake. Try Sunday. It'll be sunnier and calmer.

A little rain from Hurricane Lee might spread into the Northeast Kingdom, but it won't amount to much. 

Hurricanes are big heat pumps, sending lots of warm air into the the upper atmosphere. Up there, it's like automobile exhaust on a cold winter day, when you see steam coming out of everybody's tail pipe.

The warm, wet air will create steam of sort, which will take the form of a large shield of high level overcast extending far outward from the center of Hurricane Lee.. There might be a little dim sun coming through that high overcast Saturday, but it probably won't be a bright sunny day. 

Meanwhile, yesterday's cold front finally flushed out the humid air we've been dealing with since around September 3, so it finally eels like early autumn. 

That trend will continue all weekend, with nice weather, except for the Hurricane Lee interruption on Saturday. 

For once, it also looks like we have a long period of mostly dry weather coming up. As it looks now, anyway, there might be jus a bit of light rain next Monday, then little or no rain for about a week after that.  

Today's Storm Sputters A Bit For Vermont, Hurricane Lee Still Churning

Hurricane Lee northeast of the Bahamas this morning
is expected to move north and make landfall in 
Nova Scotia or possibly the eastern tip
of Maine on Saturday.

 About five days ago, the weather forecasting computer models were flashing a bit of a danger signal for Vermont today. Those prognostications suggested we might see some torrential rains and flooding. 

The reality - at least for Vermont -  is pffft.  Yes, it's definitely raining out there, and that should continue for most of the day. But it will never come down hard enough to cause any real flooding. Just another soggy day in a long string of them this year. 

Unfortunately, though, there has to be a victim with this storm and that's southern New England. The deep moisture that was originally supposed to affect Vermont is mostly stuck down in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. 

They've had rounds of flash flooding over the past few days, and more is happening today. Already, before 9 a.m. today, flash flood and severe thunderstorm warnings were flashing in Connecticut, and that looks like it will spread into Massachusetts soon. 

Radar images at 8:45 a.m. suggested those storms might eventually up in central Massachusetts, which suffered some extreme flash flooding Monday. So the news isn't good. 

Back here in Vermont, there might be some rumbles of thunder and some briefly heavy downpours, but that's about it. After ten days of either extremely or kinda humid air, we're finally going to see a taste of crisp, dry air that September should be famous for. 

This cooler air mass won't exactly scream "autumn" but it will be the coolest air we've seen in awhile (Highs in the 60s to around 70, lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday and Friday. Pretty standard for September. 

Then we watch Hurricane Lee go by

HURRICANE LEE

Forecasts for the future path of Hurricane Lee have ticked a bit westward since yesterday, but it still doesn't look like it will screw up Vermont all that much. 

Lee will pass by Cape Cod and the Islands Late Friday night or very early Saturday morning. Coastal southern New England  can expect some storm surges, battering waves, beach erosion, gusty winds and maybe spells of heavy rain.  It won't be a good time on Cape Cod at all.

From there, Hurricane Lee looks like it might head north, making landfall in extreme eastern Maine or far western Nova Scotia during the day Saturday. 

Though Lee won't be as powerful as it once was, it could still have top winds of 80 mph at landfall, along with storm surges and torrential rain.

Tides are normally awfully extreme in the Bay of Fundy, so it will be interesting to see what Hurricane Lee does there. 

For us in Vermont, Hurricane Lee will provide a rather cloudy, windy Saturday.  Winds shouldn't be strong enough to be damaging, but it will be a change of pace for us. Other than in strong thunderstorm gusts, we've had a remarkable lack of wind for the past three months or so. 

North winds Saturday could gust as high as 30 mph and even a little higher than that in the Connecticut Valley. Winds on ridge lines could gust to 45 mph, the National Weather Service says. 

Winds of this magnitude shouldn't cause any real trouble, but hang on to your hat. 

Light showers from Lee might make it into eastern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom.

Do note if the westward trend in Lee's expected path continues, it could make Saturdays in Vermont  just a bit windier and a bit wetter than currently expected. 

We're still looking safe from any new weather disasters with Lee, though, so that's great. 

Watching Vermont Storms/Heavy Rain/Flood Risk This Afternoon

For a glorious brief period late Monday morning, the
dense smoke from Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont 
cleared, revealing a tropical blue sky. But soon,
clouds filled in as showers kept skirting the area.

UPDATE:

1:30 p.m. TUESDAY

It looks like a conveyer belt of sorts of storms and heavy rain are starting to move south to north up the western half of Vermont. 

This raises the potential of the dreaded "training storms" in which heavy showers move over the same spots over and over again, like those boxcars I describe in the narrative below, which I wrote this afternoon.

It's just beginning, Hubbarton has so far reported an inch of rain, and I'm sure there were a few spots in southwestern Vermont that have already had a little more.

As of 1:30 p.m. this afternoon, there were no flood advisories, alerts or warnings in Vermont. But just over the border from Rutland County, a flood advisory has been issued for adjacent New York State, in the area around Whitehall, Fort Ann, Fort Edward, Comstock, that area.

Stay on your toes for the risk of local flash flooding today anywhere in Vermont. For now, the highest risk is from the spine of the Green Mountains westward.  You're not guaranteed to see flooding, but it could happen in some spots. 

Don't drive over water-covered roads, and stay out of flood prone area if your area does go under a flood advisory or flash flood warning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We're now into our expected very, very wet week here in Vermont and so far, it's....only kind of wet. 

The stalled, but volatile weather pattern is still one in which flash floods are a risk, with a somewhat lower, but still possible risk of isolated severe thunderstorms. 

Through Monday, the worst of everything seems to be going around us here in Vermont. We have had much trouble with either flooding or severe weather.  Not sure it will last or not, but maybe.  

STORMS THROUGH MONDAY

One thing you have to watch when we're in a very humid, slow moving weather regime is training storms. Those are torrential showers and thunderstorms that line up like boxcars on a railroad track. Each storm in the series goes over the same spot, unleashing flooding rains in a narrow band. 

These "training storms" in a worst case scenario can cause some pretty catastrophic floods over local areas. 

So far, at least, I haven't seen that kind of "training storms" since the wet weather arrived on Saturday. 

Such weather did affect places like Maine and New Hampshire. Nearly six inches of rain poured down on Andover, in western Maine in a short period of time Monday, washing out roads and causing property damage. 

Flash flood warnings went up in various places in New Hampshire both Sunday and Monday. Severe flood damage was reported in Alexandria, New Hampshire, about 15 miles east of Lebanon.  Other road washouts were noted in parts of the White Mountains. 

New Hampshire expects more trouble, as a flood watch is in effect for most of that state today.  No watches were up in Vermont as of 9 a.m. today. 

One flash flood warning went up in extreme southeastern Vermont last evening as heavy rain moved through. Jacksonville, Vermont reported two inches of rain in a short period of time. Still, I haven't seen any reports of any real flood damage in Windham County. 

Most of the storms in Vermont moved right along on Monday, not lingering over an area long enough to cause problems. A few storms were strong. A pretty intense thunderstorm gust took down a couple trees in Essex Junction, for instance.

WHAT ABOUT TODAY?

We're in for another active weather day, and I'm sure meteorologists will be paying close attention to radar to detect potential flood trouble or strong storms. 

The remnants of a cold front will be pushing into New York State today, focusing thunderstorms in the eastern part of that state and New England, including here in Vermont. 

A few showers were already underway here and there in Vermont early this morning.  They'll blossom and become much more numerous by this afternoon. Pretty much all of us will get some rain. A few of us will get very little, a few of us will get absolutely drenched, and the rest of us will be somewhere in between. 

There's no telling in advance, though, who gets what. 

A few isolated storms might have some strong, gusty winds, so be on the lookout for that. Most of us won't see anything that dramatic, but a few "lucky" people will.  Most of the strongest storms will probably be west of Lake Champlain in New York. 

The slightly bigger concern is that boxcar effect of training storms going over the same area over and over today.

You don't really know whether that will happen or where until it is underway.  So just keep an ear out for any flash flood warnings that might come out.  Most of us won't have that kind of problem.  If any flash flooding does happen, it's most likely in steep or hilly areas this afternoon and evening.

If storms don't arrange themselves into trains, we're in good shape. They'll be moving along quickly enough so they don't dump a super duper crapload of rain in any one place. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Wednesday's looking like a literal rinse and repeat sort of day, so expect more risks of local flooding here and there. And almost everybody will get wet again. 

Thursday looks showery, too, but there probably won't be as many showers as the last few days. Friday looks even better, with more sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms will probably be pretty few and far between to close out the week. 

It looks like we might have another uptick in showers and storms over the weekend. Oh, and by the way, if you don't like the current high humidity, too bad. It'll last at least a few more days. At least it's not super hot out there. 

 

Vermont Rainfall Just As Heavy As Expected; Some Flooding Reported

After being bone dry or close to it throughout the summer
and early autumn, the "Woof River" a small stream near
 my St. Albans house, shows signs of life this morning
after heavy overnight rains. 

 As expected, it really poured overnight, with most everybody receiving at least an inch and a half of rain with several places easily going past two inches and counting.  . 

Specific rainfall reports were, as always, spotty very early this morning, and we'll get more details later. 

Just before dawn, moderate to heavy rain was still streaming north to south across Vermont. But that north/south chain of rain was ever so slowly shifting eastward. 

 It looks like rain was tapering off to light stuff in far western Vermont. You could see some blue sky far to the west over New York State.

 It'll take most of the morning for the super soggy weather to clear out of eastern parts of the state.

As such, a flood warning was issued at 8:24 a.m. this morning along the Green Mountains from east of Middlebury up to the Canadian border. Rain was still coming down at a good clip in this area as of 8:30 a.m. The flood warning continues to early this afternoon. 

Already, water was across the road on Route 118 in Eden near Belividere Pond and Mud Creek. I'm almost sure we'll receive a few more reports of flooding here and there as we go through the morning. 

As of 6 a.m. this morning, while it was still pouring in many areas, it was already clear that the heaviest rain was falling along the Green Mountains.  At that point, the highest rain totals included 2.77 inches near Smugglers Notch, 2.51 inches in Jeffersonville and 2.41 inches in Underhill.

Some spots that have already received close to two inches of rain could receive up to an inch more.  The flood watch has been lifted in far western Vermont but as of early this morning remains in effect along and north of Route 2 from the Green Mountains east. 

 Larger rivers are rising fast now. But they were so low before this storm that flooding along them is doubtful at best.  One river to watch early this morning is the Lamoille. Water levels were rising fast just before dawn near Jeffersonville, for instance, but still well below flood stage.

 Also as expected, the rain is even heavier in parts of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and in southwestern Maine. Flood warnings are up in those areas as rainfall totals might reach upwards of five inches there. 

The next shot at any really noticeable rain will come on Monday.  That storm won't be nearly as wet as the current one.  Most of us will see a half inch of rain or less out of that one  It still looks like snow showers could reach all the way down to valley floors around midweek.

This Vermont Morning Even Colder Than Yesterday, Except On "Tropical" Mountain Summits

A waning moon at dawn with a clear sky and temperatures
UPDat around 15 below this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. 

UPDATE: 5 p.m. SATURDAY

Turns out the coldest temperature reported in Vermont this morning was 35 below in Island Pond.

I did already mention the report of 33 below in that Northeast Kingdom town, but it ended up getting a couple degrees colder. 

Judging from the list of low temperatures from this morning provided by the National Weather Service in South Burlington, most of us were in the upper teens to mid 20s below zero. 

It was a bracing morning, for sure! 

Since temperatures were so low, they had nowhere to go but up.

Dramatically, really. Island Pond was up to 19 degrees at 2 p.m. a rise of 54 degree in just seven hours or so. 

We still have more cold weather to go through over the next week. Temperatures will yo-yo all over the place, but expect a few more nights of subzero cold between now and next weekend.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

It was another brutally cold morning in and near Vermont as we started Saturday, as you surely am aware.   There were signs of at least some brief relief from the Arctic conditions uphill. I'll get into that in a moment. 

Yesterday and today might end up being the coldest weather of this winter. Though the jury is still out on how intense a cold wave next week will end up being.  Most of Vermont was even colder this morning than on Friday. 

I saw a report of 33 below from Island Pond, Vermont this morning, the first time this winter I've seen that's it's gotten to 30 below in the Green Mountain State. Such readings in the cold hollows used to be fairly common, but now, not so much.

In much of the 20th century and in earlier decades, it used to get into the 40s below zero once every several years in Vermont. The coldest on record for the state is 50 below in 1933.  I don't remember the last time it was 40 below in Vermont. I doubt it will happen this winter. 

In the bigger Vermont towns as of 7 a.m. it was 14 below in Burlington, which is so far two degrees colder than it was yesterday.  Montpelier was 18 below this morning, compared to minus 14 on Friday. Morrisville was at 27 below, a full seven degrees chillier than Friday. Newport reported minus 23.

A couple places actually managed to be "warmer" this morning than on Friday.  Highgate was 17 below early this morning, compared to 20 below Friday. 

The teens below zero were more widespread this morning that yesterday. Far southern Vermont was in the single numbers below zero yesterday. This morning, I'm noticing 11 below in Bennington and 17 below in Springfield.

Northern New York, like yesterday, wins the prize for coldest in the region. It was 30 below for the second day in a row in Saranac Lake. Ogdensburg was once again at 33 below. Brrr!!  It was also in the 30s below at several locations in northern Maine. The coldest I've seen so far this morning in Maine is 35 below. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington will later this morning surely have a comprehensive list of Vermont low temperatures, and I can pass those along when they're available and if they yield anything interesting. 

The "warm" spots this morning are actually in the reporting stations that are normally the most frigid - the mountain summits. Most of those places were actually above zero early today. Even Mount Washington, New Hampshire was at 1 above zero. While Vermont's valleys were still solidly in the teens and 20s below zero at 8 a.m., the top of Mount Mansfield was a toasty 5 above zero.

Those warm summits are a sign that this Arctic blast is all but finished.  Cold air over us drained into the valleys, which is why this Saturday morning is so cold for most of us.  Meanwhile, warmer air started moving in aloft, which is why the summits are so warm. Comparatively speaking anyway.

The weak winter sun later this morning will be enough to mix the atmosphere and most of us will quickly warm into the teens this afternoon. That's still colder than normal, but still better than yesterday!

The mild spell will be short-lived as another Arctic cold front Sunday will drive us back below zero by Monday morning. This one will be brief and not as cold as Friday and this morning were. But another Arctic front expected Tuesday will open the doors for another spell of icebox weather for the second half of next week that could rival the weather we've just been through.

I still see signs of something of a pattern change that would make us a little milder. It might not be super warm, but better.  This new pattern, if it develops, would also probably be more active, which would be a switch from the mostly very dry weather we've seen this month. 

Though nothing is sure on this yet, the chances of snow or other types of precipitation seem like they'll go up as we get into February. 

The Maine Ice Disk Is Back!

The Westbrook, Maine ice disc is back on the Presumpscot
River. A similar ice disc caused a stir three years ago. 

 The famous, and very cool ice disk in a Maine river appears to be back.  

Officials in Westbrook, Maine Tuesday posted photos on Facebook of a thin disk of ice forming on the Presumpscot River during the cold snap that has afflicted New England, reports the Portland Press Herald. 

A large ice disc formed in the river at downtown Westbrook in January 2019, capturing international attention.

Ice disks, which are fairly rarely seen, result from a combination of river currents and circulations beneath the ice. As river ice starts to spin at these locations, they are shaped by other chunks of ice into perfect spheres.

The Westbrook disc in 2019, and the one forming now are larger than most ice disks.   The formation in 2019 also lasted an unusually long time - two weeks.  It captured international attention and became a tourist attraction, which boosted usually slow winter business in downtown Westbrook, the Press Herald noted. 

It's unclear how long the new Westbrook ice disc will last. It depends on whether there are thaws, or deeper freezes, or fluctuations in the levels of the Presumpscot River. 

As of Wednesday morning, the City of Westbrook reported in its Facebook page that the disc was still there, but had at least temporarily stopped rotating as a cold overnight apparently froze it to surrounding ice. 

Ice discs have been observed since at least the late 1800s.  They have been seen in Vermont from time to time, mostly recently on the Browns River in Jericho last winter.