MAGA Denial Continues As Wildfires, Boosted By Climate Change, Ravage Northern Hemisphere

Horses flee a wildfire in Biscarrosse, France
recently. There was no time to evacuate them,
so the horses released so they could run away
on their own. Followup stories reported 
the horses were later found and retuirned
to their owners. 

While MAGA was complaining this month about wildfire smoke wafting across the border into the United States, blazes were breaking out all over the Northern Hemisphere in a relentless, climate changed summer. 

MAGA has been complaining about the wrong thing, obviously. Climate change, the problem that most in the MAGA world deny, is driving much of this fire trouble. 

And, while MAGA complains about Canada supposedly not managing its forests and driving smoke south across the border, the Trump administration has cut forest management funds and jobs in the United States.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Wildfires are a risk every summer and fall, with or without climate change. These days, many of the blazes are turbocharged by climate change. 

The warmer world is helping make fires worse. As I noted in a previous blog, Canada and other far northern areas area especially susceptible to climate change. 

The snow melts earlier in the spring than it once did, leaving more time for the vast boreal forests to dry out. Summertime heat waves up north often set record highs. Hot, dry weather dries things out further. 

When weather disturbance finally grace the Great, formerly White North, the heat helps increase atmospheric instability. So you get lightning strikes. That set new fires amid a landscape that doesn't receive adequate wetting from the scattered thunderstorms. 

Europe is burning, too. It's the world's fastest warming continent, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 

The extra hot summers Europe has seen in recent summers are certainly killing thousands of people across the continents. That's the biggest problem. But that hot weather is also drying out the continent's woodlands, forests and scrublands, leading to enormous fires, some of which are burning as I write this. 

Here in the United States, the western half of the nation endured a record hot, dry winter and early spring. According to World Weather Attribution, the heat, particularly the hot temperatures in March, would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

That heat early this year set the stage for the deadly wildfires in places like Utah and Colorado in the late spring and early summer.  A hot, dry spring and summer also contributed to serious wildfires in northern Minnesota. 

The Minnesota fires might have been made more intense because of our MAGA president. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, the Trump administration delayed a $10 million grant that was supposed to help Minnesota thin out about 4,000 acres of dense, dry forest at high risk of burning. Most of that work ever got started, according to five people familiar with the situation and a document reviewed by the Washington Post. And now, some of those areas are on fire."

The project would have removed decades of dead trees and undergrowth, creating breaks that would stop advancing fires. The grant would have paid for fire prevention efforts along a key 36-mile gravel road.  One of the two dozen lightning-sparked fires burning since the beginning of the month jumped the road and threatened houses. 

Remember, Trump and MAGA complained that recent big fires were so destructive and smoky in California and Canada because they didn't "rake their forests" or whatever he was trying to say. 

So, Trump & Co. canceled money that would have literally raked Minnesota forests. 

Even worse, many in the West and elsewhere fear that the 6,000 permanent U.S. Forest Service staff lost to layoffs, buyouts and early retirements as the Trump people keep decimating critical government work. The Trumpsters also wants to move the agenda headquarters to Utah and consolidate or close dozens of research centers and regional offices. 

Dave Upthegrove, Washington state's elected public lands commissioner told NPR: "These layoffs at the federal level are presenting risk to our ability respond to major wildfires."

U.S. Forest Service said in June that they have reached or exceeded seasonal hiring goals for woodland firefighting this summer. 

We shall see. It might be hard to tell whether firefighting capability this summer is as robust as it could be, amid the noise of all the wildfires out there. In the United States and elsewhere. 

THE FIRES

As of this past Saturday, 932 wildfires were still burning on Canada.  Those fires were burning in a  huge band from Yukon and the Northwest Territories and through northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan  into most of Ontario and central Quebec. More recently, there's also been a burst of new fires in southern British Columbia. 

The British Columbian fires are extending into the new United States fire hot spot in Washington and Oregon.  

In Washington, the Kaiser Mountain Fire not far north of the Grand Coulee Dam has covered more than 100,000 acres. That one is likely the largest of dozens of fires burning in the state. 

Down in Oregon, 1,200 wildfires were burning on Oregon. Crews were arriving in Oregon fro as far away as New Zealand and Australia to help. 

In Colorado and Utah, monsoon rains have tamped down, but not eliminated the fires. A turn toward drier weather will almost immediately help the wildfires power up again. The monsoon downpours hit areas where wildfires stripped the landscape of trees and vegetation that held the soil together. The fires also cooked the soil, so water runs off instead of soaking in.

These factors have already created huge flash floods and debris flow. One debris flow caused widespread damage in and below Cottonwood Canyon, where a fire burned through earlier this summer. 

Europe

As of Saturday, at least 250,000 people had been evacuated in France and Spain because of the fires. That includes 70,000 people evacuated in central Spain. That was said to be the largest European evacuation since World War II. At least one death was reported in Manises, Spain. 

The fire around Madrid was described as the worst in that city's history. 

The city of Bordeaux, France appeared to be in serious trouble.   The wildfire was described as a "firestorm"  last Friday but had later calmed down somewhat Saturday. Still, the Associated Press description of the wildfire fight sounds like a war battle:

"....fire crews and authorities were digging trenches, using retardants and taking other blaze-blocking steps. French Interior Minister Laurent Nunex said,  predicting a 'long and very difficult' battle."

The final stage of the Tour de France was shortened as thick smoke hit the region, CNN reports. 

Temperatures in western Europe are forecast to climb again this week, heightening the risk of new fires, and possibly making existing fires worse. 

During mid-July a wildfire swept through a section of southern Norway, destroying more than 100 homes. 

Finally, in what should be damp Edinburgh, Scotland, the second wildfire in three months ravaged Arthur's Seat, a landmark extinct volcano that offers sweeping views of the city. The fire came somewhat close to housing for students at Edinburgh University, but no damage to those structures was reported. 

United States MAGA Meltdown Over Canadian Wildfire Smoke Is A National Embarrassment

Thick smoke in Chicago last week.
MAGA has been embarrassingly 
whining about the smoke without
offering any real help or 
solutions to the problem. 

Just stop already. 

MAGA is going nuts over the wildfire smoke billowing into theUnited States from Canada, and it has long since become embarrassing. 

Somehow, MAGA thinks Canada can wave a magic wand to stop the fires, or, they're sending the smoke over the border as some sort of deliberate provocation. 

Sigh.

MAGA has spent the past week falling over each attacking Canada for the fires, as if they aren't battling the blazes with everything they have and praying for soaking, widespread rains. 

We have so many, sad disgusting examples. Let's go through a bunch of them, just to wallow in the stupidity. : 

Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio said he is introducing legislation that would require an investigation as to whether the Canadian smoke had harmed U.S. air quality and to sanctions those responsible. Moreno ought to be careful, given the harm the United States has caused Canada.

Moreno's legislation gets worse.

As Daily Beast reports, "The bill reportedly goes so far as to threaten to revoke the visas of those deemed responsible for the 'atrocity.' The legislation also 'expresses a sense' that the Canadian ambassador should be declared persona non grata until the smoke no longer affects the U.S." 

Moreno's legislation would ban U.S. government contracts with Canada and Export-Import Bank assistance and authorize the president to most import restrictions.  

Katie Miller, the wife of the odious White House aide Stephen Miller, posted the wild idea that annexing Canada would have spared the U.S. of the wildfire smoke. "This is why Canada should be the 51st state," she wrote. 

Rep. Lisa McClain, Michigan, had this temper tantrum on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter: "Michiganders shouldn't have to breathe negligence....."YEAR AFTER YEAR the smoke crossed the border while Canada does nothing. Stop exporting your smoke into our skies. Enough is enough!"

Does she expect Canada to erect a wall to block the smoke?

Also on X, Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-NY, whined, "This is no longer a one-time emergency - it's becoming an annual public health crisis. This is unacceptable."

It's not just MAGA Republicans. I found a Democrat who entered the fray. Michigan State Rep. Alabas Farhat  posted on Threads:

"For four straight years, Canada has failed to get these fires under control, and Michigan continues to pay the price." 

He referred the fires as "Canada forest management failures." He also said if Canada "refuses" to stop the fires (as if!) he said "There should be consequences."

This motive for all this whining? Almost all of it is in service to the Orange Lump of a president. We remember all the anti-Canada blather Trump has belched, the demands to make Canada the 51st state. And, after a couple days of all this, on Friday, all this stupidly and predictable whining culminated with Donald Trump saying he would add to the tariffs he's already imposed on Canada.

The Orange Lump said Canada "has refused to engage in basic Forest Management and Debris Removal."  I guess Canada was supposed to rake its forests, just as he insisted California should have done. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a devastatingly low key reaction to the MAGA tantrums: "Climate change is everyone's responsibility, truly everyone's including the United States."

ABOUT THAT CLIMATE CHANGE

There have always been occasional years with Canadian or western United States fires that belch smoke into the United States. It used to be infrequent. 

On May 19, 1790 - way back when - was labeled the "Famous Dark Day" in New England, according to the Vermont Weather Book.  Candles were needed to read, and the air had an eerie, brassy hue. That was probably smoke from the western United States or maybe the northern Great Lakes region.

On September 6, 1881, it was the legendary, "Yellow Day,"  Everything took on a yellow hue, and artificial light was needed to read documents and books during the day. Basically the same thing happened in September, 1908, and September 1950.

So we used to have smoky days, but since those days were a rarity, they became legend. 

Now however, smoke attacks are no longer a rarity, but a regular occurrence. So what changed?

Canada has roughly 1.4 million square miles of forest. Most of it is boreal forest, a broad area representing 30 percent of the global forest area in northern areas of Canada, Russia and Alaska. 

Most of the forests are remote, and impossible to manage like forests in more populated areas in the continental United States.

Fires have gotten worse and widespread in recent years for reasons that mostly have to do with climate change. The snow in the spring melts sooner than it once did, leaving more time for the landscape two dry out than it once did Parts of Canada are warming at twice the rate of the global average, creating heat waves that further dry things out. 

The summer heat also destabilizes the air, creating thunderstorms with relatively little rain but plenty of lightning strikes that set off fires.  Invasive bark beetles kills swaths of foresters, leaving behind tinder dry dead trees. 

So, contrary to MAGA, Canada isn't trying to torture Americans by sending choking wildfire smoke into the United States. They are in large part a victim of climate change. And historically, the United States has always been the #1 or #2 greenhouse gas emitters in the world. 

In the end, climate change has us breathing smoke that makes us sick, and will end up killing some of us. 

MAGA has been yelling outrageous things about the wildfire smoke. But just hint to them climate change might have had something to do with it, the screaming just becomes that much louder. 

THE FIRES

On Saturday, 949 fires were burning across Canada, according to the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System.  The intense fires in Ontario were quieter, thanks to some rain.

But those weren't the only fires burning in North America.  As of Saturday, there were 73 large fires burning across the United States, including 17 new large incidents, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Most of these were in the West and in northern Minnesota. There were also a multitude of smaller fires burning around the nation. 

Fires are also burning in the boreal forests of Siberia. In recent days, a fire in Norway spread from a townhouse and into a forest, where it continued on to destroy about 100 homes. It was the largest such fire in Norway's history. 

TRAGEDY, HELP AND HONOR

It's not as if Canada is just gleefully sending smoke to the U.S.  Smoke has choked much of southern Canada, including large cities like Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. 

The Canadian fires have especially hit the First Nations communities in Ontario. Thousands were evacuated. An unknown number of houses have burned, but the number of destroyed buildings is easily in the hundreds. 

Normally, and in the past, the United States and Canada would help each other with emergencies. Canada is still doing that. 

Sometimes, firefighters give their lives to the effort. About a week ago, Nicholas Dale, 56 of Sooke, British Columbia died in a helicopter crash while responding to a wildfire in not too far north of Telluride. 

Dale's death make the vitriol aimed at Canada over the smoky atmosphere especially galling. 

In a demonstration of how much more decent most Americans are, compared to the noxious MAGA crowd, Wyoming Public Radio described this scene as the sad process of returning Dale's body to Canada began. :

"On Monday morning, a line of firetrucks, ambulances and other emergency response vehicles flashing their lights stretched for nearly a mile as the convoy passed through the little towns and small cities between Gunnison and Grand Junction. 

In Montrose, hundreds somberly lined U.S. Highway 509 holding American flags to honor Dale."

STUPIDITY WORSENS

Meanwhile, he whining from MAGA kept getting louder and even more bizarre gets even worse in some circles  

Right Wing Watch posted on X (formerly Twitter) posted this gem of a clip from MAGA activist Eric Metaxas: 

"Who's telling me how to live my life?  I'm an adult man in a free country, and you're telling me, 'limit your outdoor activity.'' he said, "How dare they say that. Who has the right to tell me or you or anyone anything? It's a free country. I can do whatever I want."

Never mind this was just an advisory, kind of like telling people to drive carefully in a winter storm. But the guy isn't very bright. The comments section was glorious

"He should definitely go outside ad jog for HOURS!

"Fine, Eric. Please go outside and put your mouth over a diesel bus exhaust. It will benefit all of us."

"Eric doesn't understand the difference between a suggestion and an order Poor guy."

"Oh the humanity! This dude is the victim of receiving information! Will the abusive alerts never stop enslaving him?"

"Getting asthma to own the libs."

"Dear Eric - I forbid you from running out in front of traffic on the expressway."

Metaxas is a great example of the low, ignorant, tragicomic  MAGA mentality. They can do anything! They are all powerful!  While the rest of us roll our eyes and laugh at them. 

MAGA seems to think the abuse they've hurled at Canada is a flex, showing how powerful they are. Trump and his minions are actually demonstrating exactly how weak they are. Their pathetic insults and whining is a precise demonstration of how impotent MAGA really is. 

We should all remember that despite their bluster, the rest of us hold most of the power. We ought to use it. 

  

If New England Isn't Snowy Enough For You, Try Buried Newfoundland

A ridiculous amount of snow on the ground
in St. John's Newfoundland after a 
month of record snowfalls. 

People in much of New England can be forgiven if they're not happy with the one, two or even three feet of snow on the ground at the cusp of March. 

If you want really big snow, head up to Newfoundland.

As the Toronto Star reports:

"Eastern Newfoundland has been pounded by series of storms that self so much snow, residents were posting on social media looking for help getting out of their homes and driveways. On Wednesday, some of the snow piles lining driveways in Paradise were as tall as houses."

THE STATS

As of yesterday, St. Johns, Newfoundland had received 178.2 centimeters, or 70.2 inches of snow in February. That's almost six feet of snow. 

This breaks the record for snowiest month on record, which had been 173  (68.1 inches) centimeter in December, 2000. The previous snowiest February, which was 170 centimeters or 66.9 inches back in February, 2006.  

February's snow in St. John's was relentless. The Weather Network reported on Friday: :

"St. John's Airport has recorded measurable snow on 22 out of 26 days so far this moth. Six of those days witnessed 10+ cm  (3.9 inches) of snowfall, with Feb. 2 notching 43.6 cm (17.2 inches of accumulation alone."

St. John's has had 385 centimeters  (151.6 inches) of snow so far this winter.  On average, they can expect another 98 centimeters (38.6 inches) of snow between and when summer finally arrives. 

If there is a bright side, St. John's is very unlikely to have a record snowy winter. That title belongs to 2000-01 with 648 centimeters (255.1 inches). 

Gander, Newfoundland has had 446 centimeters (175.6 inches) of snow so far this winter As of yesterday 109 centimeter (42.9 inches) of it was still on the ground.  

LIFE IN THE SNOW

St. John's has a population of about 110,000, with a total of 212,000 in the overall metro area up there. The city is used to snowy winters, but February, as noted above, has been insane.

Social media from St. John's was full of images of snow stacked against doors to the point people couldn't leave their homes; 

We saw how cities like Providence, Rhode Island and Fall River,Massachusetts had trouble finding places to put the three plus feet of snow they were clearing fron streets. It's exponentially worse in Newfoundland. 

St. Johns just recently got permission to dump snow in its harbor, which is usually big no-no due to environmental concerns. Normally, snow can be pushed off many streets onto lawns, where it will melt in the spring. 

But there's no more room to put snow aside like that. St. John's  has to do the tedious job of hauling it away to the harbor or snow dumps in and near the city. 

The work is expensive too.  St. John's has signed snow removal contracts to the tune of at least $3.5 million.

 Videos:

The snow in St. John's is insane, as you can see by this news clip. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another news report from Newfoundland. I'm getting a backache just watching everybody shovel snow onto snowbanks nearly twice as tall as they are.  Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that. 

And let's take a drive though the town of Paradise, near St. John's after the storms. Also some drone shots to add perspective. As always click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Extreme Cold, Snow Hits Alaska, Northwest Canada

While we in Vermont endured the second coldest December in a quarter century, things were even worse - much worse - in Alaska and large swaths of northern Canada. 

Lovely weather for swimsuits in 
Fairbanks, Alaska.  There's a "40 below"
club in Fairbanks in which people pose
in swimsuits near this sign when it gets
to 40 below or colder. 

Fairbanks, Alaska endured its coldest December since 1980. Winters in Fairbanks and the rest of interior Alaska are absolutely brutal to begin with. But last month was ridiculous, at least by modern day, climate changed standards.

The average temperature for December in Fairbank was minus 22.8 degrees, which is a whipping 18.5 degrees colder than their already miserably frigid normal. It got as cold as 48 below on December 27 and 28  the coldest it's been in Fairbanks since 2012. 

Fairbanks might set a record for most consecutive days in which the low temperature was 15 below or colder. The current record is 38 days.  As of January 2, they were up to 29 days. 

The annual New Year's Eve fireworks show in Fairbanks was canceled due to the extreme chill. As the clock struck midnight in Fairbanks last night, the temperature was a thoroughly unpleasant 44 below. Even if they had launched the fireworks, it would have been hard to see them. Visibility was a half mile in freezing fog. 

By noon local time on January 1, it was still 44 below in Fairbanks.

As Rick Thoman noted on Substack, the remarkable part of the cold wave in northwest North America is the duration, even more than the low temperatures   He noted that through the first 26 days of December, parts of the Yukon were running an incredible 36 degrees (F) below normal. 

The intense cold in interior Alaska also covers northwestern Alaska. In Yukon, Canada, the temperature got as low as 68 below, the coldest it's been in Canada in 50 years. 

Earlier in December, Yukon Energy said the territory's power grid has been under significant strain as people try to stay warm. Demand reached 90 percent of availability supply. 

A break in the frigid conditions in at least parts of northwestern Canada seems to be finally looming. Whitehorse, Yukon, could finally see a day with no subzero temperatures toward Friday. Readings could actually climb into the low 20s above zero in about a week. 

Fairbanks, Alaska is expected a break of sorts, too. It'll get worse before it gets better with lows in the 50s below in Fairbanks and through much of interior Alaska. The coldest spots could hit 60 below.

Believe it or not, this isn't as cold as it can possibly get in Fairbanks. The most intense cold wave on record there was on January 13-15, 1934, when the daily low temperatures were minus 65, minus 66 and minus 64. The coldest of those three days remains the chilliest on record in Fairbanks. 

The current interior Alaska icebox regime is destined to finally ease in a few days. 

Instead of temperatures in the 40s below, in about a weeks time, that city is expected balmy readings in the single numbers and teens below zero. Which is more or less normal for them for this time of year. 

 JUNEAU SNOW

Four feet of snow fell in Juneau, 
Alaska in the final four days of the month,
The weight of the snow sank boats in
Juneau Harbor. More than 80 inches
of snow fell there in December. 

Much further south in Alaska, Juneau had 82 inches of snow in December,  Normal snowfall for December in Juneau is 18 inches. 

More than half of the month's total - 49 inches - fell in the final five days of December.  The snow is so heavy that it has sunk numerous boats in Juneau's harbor and threatens to collapse roofs on houses and other buildings.

At least eight boats had sunk in the harbor as of midday Wednesday, the Juneau Independent reported. Dozens of other boats were saved when harbor crew and boat owners got to the harbor on time to clean snow off the vessels

December was also frigid by Juneau standards. The average temperature for the month was 17.9 degrees, more than 12 degrees colder than average, 

The Juneau snow won't disappear anytime soon. The National Weather Service calls for temperatures in the teens through Sunday in Juneau, then more snow. 

In fact snow is expected in the region every day in the  of upcoming week It could mix with or change to rain late in the week around Juneau, which I imagine will turn things even messier.  

A Follow-Up To Donald Trump's War On Colorado: Now Denying Disaster Aid

The NCAR building in Boulder, Colorado. There's been
more fallout related to this, including Donald Trump
denying disaster relief from Colorado, and a 
looming brain drain from the United States. 

You might remember my post a few days ago, in which the Trump regime is breaking up an important and renowned climate and weather research center in Colorado. 

The Trumpsters said they plan to break up the National Center For Atmospheric Research or NCAR which conducts a wide array of meteorological and climate research. 

The Trump people said they want to break up the science center because they are guilty of "climate alarmism," whatever that is 

The timing of the announcement was interesting, to say the least. 

Former Mesa County, Colorado Clerk Tina Peters is still cooling her heels in state prison, having been found guilty in a state court for giving Trump supporters unauthorized access to a voting machine after the 2020 election. 

Trump earlier this month tried to pardon Peters, but he can't do that because she's convicted on state charges. Colorado refuses to touch Peters' nine-year prison sentence. So, it appears Trump might be exacting revenge on Colorado for this unforgivable slight - insert major eye roll here).

Well, there's even more signs of possible revenge by the Trump folks. President Trump has rejected requested disaster declarations for two wildfires and a serious flood earlier this year in Colorado. 

The denials got strong responses from Colorado's governor and the state's congressional delegation. 

"President Trump's decision to deny Colorado's request for critical federal assistance is unacceptable," said Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colorado. "Trump continues to use Coloradans for political games; it is malicious and obscene. A disaster is a disaster, regardless of what state in the country in took place."

Gov. Jared Polis said: "Coloradans impacted by the Elk and Lee fires and the flooding in southwestern Colorado deserve better than the political games President Trump is playing."

Colorado will appeal Trump's decision.  

Trump's denial of disaster assistance echoes what he's done in other blue states where he is especially unpopular. In October, Trump denied federal assistance for flooding in Illinois, Maryland and Vermont, all blue states. But Trump did approve disaster aid in red states like Alaska, Nebraska and North Dakota. 

In their joint statement today, Colorado's Polis, Bennet and Sen. John Hickenlooper hinted that they could play Trump's game, too. 

The three pointed to a recent study that showed that for every $1 Coloradans pay in federal taxes, the state only receives $0.90 in federal investments.  

Meanwhile, the potential breakup o NCAR could well contribute to a brain drain from the U.S. brought on by Trump's virulently anti-science agenda. 

Canadian climate scientists say dismantling NCAR would not only harm climate science worldwide, it would also cause a loss of expertise on emergency responses, and innovations in weather forecasting.

But as CTVnews.ca reports, Trump's actions could be an opportunity for Canada and Europe. American scientists have already left the U.S to work elsewhere. Canada has already announced funding to attract top talent to the nation, including U.S. researchers. 

"This is an opportunity for Canada to really establish itself as a leader," said Anna Soer, co-president of the Environmental Studies Association of Canada.  

Atlantic Canada Being Blasted By Repeated Big Storms

One forecast depiction of an intense bomb cyclone
expected to hit Newfoundland on Tuesday. This storm will
blast the coastline up there with near hurricane force gusts.

 The most intense in a series of strong storms is about to blast parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland with wild gales, torrential rains and battering waves on the coast. 

We told you last week about a dip in the jet stream that has roughly centered itself in or near Quebec. 

The position of this dip allows storms to develop near the United States coast and then intensify as they move northeast into Canada. 

A nor'easter was developing off the North Carolina coast today. It will move north and east, well off the New England coast. 

Meanwhile, a separate system, with a cold front that will give us in Vermont a spate of showers this afternoon and tonight, is heading east. 

The two storms will team up, and the nor'easter will explode into that intense storm. Waters off the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are way warmer than normal for this time of year. The warm water will add fuel for the storm and make it especially intense.   

The storm should blow past the eastern tip of Nova Scotia early Tuesday then smack into Newfoundland during the day. 

Though it will be a fairly compact storm, the barometric pressure at its center could go down to as low as 944 millibars or 27.88 inches of mercury, a sign of particularly powerful storm. 

As a result, parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Tuesday can expect wind gusts as high as 68 mph and up to three inches of rain. . Environment Canada has issued wind warnings for the areas that will be hit by the storm. 

Huge waves will batter the coastlines. Environment Canada has also issued coastal flood alerts for parts of Newfoundland. The wind and rain warnings might well be extended into Nova Scotia. 

The Maritime provinces of Canada are now caught in a stormy pattern, thanks to the weather pattern that centers that southward push of the jet stream in or near Quebec. 

The storm that brought decent rains to us in Vermont last Friday intensified further and brought high winds and heavy rain to Maritimes. Up in Canada, the rain got a boost from the remnants of Hurricane Melissa passing by just offshore of Newfoundland. 

Three more storms between Wednesday and next Monday will be beginning to develop near us here in Vermont, giving us light to moderate amounts of precipitation. 

Several weather models indicate each of these storms will become powerful once they head up toward Newfoundland. They might not be as strong as the one that will hit Tuesday, but will still stir things up with more potentially damaging winds and a flood risk. 

Record Heat To End In Northeast and Canada, Though Despite Rain, Vermont/New England Drought To Continue

A person sunbathes amid record October heat Monday at
Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont on Lake Champlain
As you can see, the lake is incredibly low due to the
ongoing drought. 

Here in the Champlain Valley, we awoke this Tuesday morning to temperatures in the mid-60s, which is a little on the warm side for July, never mind October.  

True, the rest of Vermont was a little cooler than that, but we're still in bizarro world with the hot October weather. At least until tonight. 

On Monday, more record highs with this extreme heat wave hit Vermont, and many other areas of the Northeast and southeast Canada as well. 

We can confirm these records in Vermont:

84 in Burlington, besting the old record of 82 degrees

Montpelier reached 82 degrees, exceeding the old record of 79. 

St. Johnsbury reached 85, beating the old record by one degree. 

The core of the hottest air that was over our region and Quebec Sunday moved east a little, which is why much of Vermont was one or two degrees "cooler" than Sunday. The biggest record highs were in Atlantic Canada.

Now, four Canadian provinces have had all time record highs for October. The new record for Quebec was established Sunday with a temperature of 87.4 degrees in Gatineau. 

On Monday, Kouchbouguak, New Brunswick, reached 88 degrees to set a new provincial record for October. Prince Edward Island did the same, with a high of 83.7 degrees at Stanhope. Nova Scotia set a new October record with a reading of 87 degrees in Upper Stewiacke.

All-time October record highs were also set in several Maine cities, including 87 degrees in Fryburg, 86 in Augusta, 84 in Houlton and Presque Isle and 83 in Caribou. 

This has been an incredible heat wave for North America, as more than 2,000 cities and towns have set new record highs in the past six days. Some more records could well fall today in New England and far southeastern Canada.

VERMONT TODAY/TONIGHT

Things will start to change radically today here in the Green Mountain State to something more akin to normal. A long awaited cold front is about to slap us back into autumn. 

The first half today will bring more of the same. Temperatures will start to shoot up under sunny skies before noon. It could hit 80 degrees or a little more in Vermont before the clouds and rain arrive. 

I don't think we'll have record highs again today. The record highs for today are 83 in Burlington and Montpelier and 87 in St. Johnsbury. But, you never know, there could be surprises. 

Although the humidity is beginning to creep up ahead of the cold front, the winds are also increasing. Since things are so bone dry, the fire danger will be sky high today until the rain arrives,  The wind will make it worse, as the gusts would make blazes spread easily. 

That rain won't get here really until mid to late afternoon, so we have until then to worry about fires. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger as high to very high today. 

The amount of rain that's coming still looks pretty good. It will actually come down hard at times tonight. Overall, most of us should get three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take, by tomorrow morning. 

That'll tamp down the fire risk for awhile, but not end the drought by any stretch of the imagination. 

COLD AIR BLASTS IN

It's going to feel awfully cold tomorrow into Friday after the cold front goes by.  Temperatures will actually not be at all weird for October over the coming days, but this will be traditional flannel and fleece October weather. 

It'll be party cloudy tomorrow, kind of windy from the north and chilly. Highs should stay in the 50s to low 60s, which is pretty close to normal. 

The cold air will keep coming in tomorrow night. Some low clouds might leave rime ice on the mountain tops for the first time this season. Don't be surprised if the tops of mountains like Camels Hump or Mount Mansfield look a little white. A harbinger of things to come. 

Some of us will also have near our below freezing temperatures to start Thursday. Thursday itself will be bright and chilly, a classic fall day. Sunshine will barely help make it feel warmer as highs just reach the 50s. 

Thursday night and Friday morning will be the coldest so far this season. If you have avoided a frost so far this autumn, chances are your luck will run out by dawn Friday. It looks like only areas right near Lake Champlain will escape the frost. 

Many places well inland will have a hard freeze with readings definitely its the 20s. 

After that, it will warm up to near normal temperatures Friday afternoon through the weekend. That means lows near 40, highs in the low to mid 60s.  After early tomorrow, I still don't see any signs of additional rain beyond sprinkles in Vermont at least until October 17 or so.  

Incredible October Heat Here In Vermont, And Much Of U.S. Southeast Canada; It's A Climate Change Trend

People strolling through downtown Montpelier, 
Vermont Sunday amid record October heat.
The city tied its record for hottest October
day on record. Burlington did the same.

As all of you felt it on Sunday, it was a day for the weather record books, big time here in Vermont.

And in a LOT of other places. 

The temperature reached 86 degrees in Burlington Sunday, tying the record for the hottest day for the entire month of October. 

The tie was with the record set just two years and one day day earlier, on October 4, 2023.

Montpelier also tied its all-time October record, reaching 84 degrees Sunday afternoon. Springfield and St. Johnsbury reached 85 degrees Sunday.  

Up in Quebec, all-time October records were set, too. Gatineau reached 87.4 degrees, setting the record for the hottest October temperature for the entire province of Quebec.  Montreal reached 85.8 degrees, setting a record high for the month of October, beating the 2023 record. 

Temperatures as high as 84 degrees were recorded as far north as the southern tip of Canada's James Bay. 

Further west, the heat hit the Great Lakes area on Saturday. Traverse City, Michigan hit 89 degrees, tying their record for the month of October. Other record highs included 89 in Alpena and Lansing, Michigan 88 in Ann Arbor, Michigan and 85 in Gaylord, Michigan.

Minneapolis reached 90 degrees, only the fourth time that city has reached 90 in October. As I mentioned Saturday, the hottest spot I've heard of, at least in the northern half of the U.S. is that 99 degrees Friday in Ellsworth, South Dakota. 

VERMONT OUTLOOK

The Northeast, much Quebec and other parts of southeast Canada has got another day of record warmth in store today. This, of course, includes Vermont. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high today in Burlington of 85, which would exceed the day's record by 3 degrees. 

Montpelier's record high today is 79, and the NWS said the Capitol City could reach 85 degrees, which would break the record high for the entire month. St. Johnsbury is also forecasted to reach 85 degrees, two degrees above the previous record for the date. 

Today will be a little breezier than Sunday was, especially in the Champlain Valley. That makes the already high fire danger even worse. Today, of all days, avoid doing anything that can spark a blaze. 

Tuesday, big changes will start to happen, but it will take until afternoon to hit. 

If the clouds hold off long enough Tuesday, Burlington could reach 80 degrees again. That would make four days in a row of 80 degree temperatures, which would be the first time on record the city had that long a streak of 80 degree weather in October. 

Winds will be gusty, so the fire danger in Vermont should be sky high again. Until some glorious rain arrives. That rain should come in during the afternoon, spreading west to east across the state.

Fingers crossed, this could be a decent rainfall.  The forecast could and probably will change, but at this point southern Vermont is in for more than a half inch of rain. Northern Vermont could see an inch or maybe even a little more.

That won't by any means solve our drought problems. But we'll take any help we can get. It'll tamp down the forest fire risk for awhile. And it might be enough to slow or even temporarily stop the drought's worsening trend.

I'm getting mixed signals for rainfall beyond what we get Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some sets of forecasts keep us quite dry through around October 20 at least. Other forecasts gives us occasional bouts of light but helpful rain through that period. 

If we get lucky, a coastal storm poised to dump heavy rain along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend might come close enough to give Vermont a little more light rain. Not sure yet, but it's worth hoping for.

Another thing: Tuesday's cold front means business. It will bring the chilliest air of the season so far. It won't be anything odd for October, not at all. But it will come as a shock to the system after this summer weather. Many places in Vermont that escaped frosts and freezes so far this autumn won't be so lucky this time. 

HEAT IN PERSPECTIVE

This heat wave is easily one of the most extreme North American off-season warm spells I can remember. It stretched through the entire northern half of the U.S. from the Rockies east, and encompassed much of southern Canada. 

The only hot spell I can think of that was even more wild came in March, 2012, when a huge area covering the central and northern Plains, the Great Lakes region, the Northeast, including Vermont and southern Canada saw several days of record highs in the 80s. Which is incredible for that time of year.

Yes, climate change is making record warm spells more frequent and more extreme. And it's making record cold spells less frequent. 

If the climate hadn't changed, the number of record highs and lows would be roughly equal. The climate change disparity in Burlington, Vermont is even more extreme than many other cities.

By my count,51 daily record highs have been tied or broken since January, 2020. In that time, there was only one record low. 

Records for hottest temperatures for the entire month should be pretty rare, maybe coming once a decade or so.  The data in Burlington goes all the way back to 1884. But just since 1995, we've had 11 monthly highs either tied or broken. The last time a monthly record low was tied was in 1986 and the last time one was broken was in 1979.

So, we have another weird hot spell under way. It's one of many we've had in recent years and one of many we're going to have. If you think Vermont beach weather in October is weird, you are going to see even more bizarre weather stuff in the years and decades ahead. 

A Vermont Summer Weekend In October

Some color showing in the trees near Richmond,
Vermont amid strangely hot, dusty weather 

All those leaf peepers from out of state who crammed themselves into Vermont this weekend probably brought their fleece jackets, knit hats, and maybe long underwear to endure the October chill while watching tree leaves die. 

The jokes on them.

They should have brought shorts, swimsuits and such since we're having a summer weekend, and early part of the week, too. 

The weather today, tomorrow and possibly Tuesday in Vermont will be normal - for July. Since it's October, the expected temperatures will almost certainly break some record highs. 

Summer redux started yesterday, with highs in the 70s to around 80. Burlington reached 81 degrees. Not quite a record high, but damn close.

The heat should peak today. The National Weather Service is going for a high of 85 today in Burlington. That would have tied the all-time record for the month of October, if not for the 86 degrees just two years ago. 

As mentioned here on Friday, this will be the third Vermont October in a row with unprecedented heat for this time of year. 

It won't be just Burlington. Record highs will envelop much of the rest of northern New England, and southern Quebec and Ontario.  Over the past couple of days, record October heat has covered a huge area around the Great Lakes, Midwest and Upper Plains in the United States and parts of Canada, including Manitoba, and the other two provinces I already mentioned. 

Climatologist Maximiliano Herrera is calling the widespread October heat "one of the most extreme events in all North American history."

Some examples, just to cherry pick: 99 degrees in Ellsworth, South Dakota (in October!); 96 in Rapid City, South Dakota and 92 degrees in Appleton, Minnesota. 

Those same areas sweltered overnight as temperatures failed to drop below 70 degrees in most of that Midwest heat zone. 

Back here in Vermont, some of that warm night air will make its way here, but it won't be quite as bad as out in the Midwest. Lows in the Champlain Valley might not get below 60 degrees tonight and Monday night. This time of year, lows should be in the mid-40s.

Monday afternoon should be almost as hot as today, with highs once again reaching record territory. Many towns will reach 80s degrees.  Depending on how fast Tuesday clouds up, there's a slight chance a couple places could reach 80. 

If Burlington has four days in a row of 80 degree weather, that'll be the most consecutive days on record of such warmth. The record is three days in that blast of heat in October, 2023. 

DROUGHT/RAIN CHANCES

Since we're in a drought, you don't want it to be hot and dry, which is precisely what's happening here. In dry times, the warmer it gets, the more efficient evaporation is. So droughts get worse than they would otherwise be when you have bouts of record heat.  

We're already seeing that this weekend. A forest fire broke out Saturday in a hard to reach place on Brownell Mountain in Williston. We had the rare, rather scary experience of seeing helicopters dropping water on the fire, like they do in those big western fires. 

A helicopter prepares to drop water on a forest fire
Saturday on Brownell Mountain in Williston,
Vermont. Photo via Facebook from
Williston Fire Department. 

At last report, the fire on Brownell Mountain had not yet covered a lot of territory, and no evacuations have been ordered. 

Firefighting efforts were suspended last night after they at least partly tamped down the blaze. They'll be back at it today with the firefighting effort. 

There's obviously the risk of more fires, at least until it rains, 

 Rain will come with a cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night. As has been the case for months, this rain will by no means become a drought buster. It will be welcomed, for sure, but it will be brief Band-Aid to a drought that really needs major surgery to solve.

Early guesses are the cold front will perhaps a half inch of rain, give or take. We need much more than that to dent this drought. 

Like the rains on September 23-25, the wet weather Tuesday and Tuesday night will temporarily tamp down the fires and fire risk, but that problem will come back within a few days. 

We're stuck in the same drought weather pattern of big, huge, dry high pressure systems parking themselves over us for days on end. The next one will come in Wednesday, give us clear skies.  It will get even colder than it was this past Wednesday night, so frost and freezes are even more likely.

That's about the only normal part of the weather we're seeing here in early October. 

The big, dry high pressure will actually get reinforced around this coming Friday, so the rainless weather will once again last a long time.  After Tuesday, I don't really see any chances of rain until around October 17 or so.   

Something Else To Worry About: Droughts Can Make Tree Branches Break Off Spontaneously

Trees wilted by drought near Colchester, Vermont this
month. Another hazard was highlighted in
British Columbia: Repeated droughts can cause
trees and branches to spontaneously break off.

In British Columbia on July 31, a mother and her five month old son died when a tree fell on them while they visited a beach at Cumberland Lake Park campground on Vancouver Island. 

On August 10, also on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, a woman was injured when part of a large tree fell on her.  

In both cases, there were no storms, no strong winds. In both occasions, it was a gleaming, bright sunny day. 

So what happened?

It might have been drought. Per CTV News in Canada:

"A tree physiologist said that several years of repeated drought in British Columbia mixed with heat stress increased the likelihood of branches breaking off and this could even happen on a 'perfectly calm day' without any breeze."

Chances are the trees that caused the British Columbia tragedies had something else wrong with them besides drought. But the dry weather could have been a tipping point. Cumulative droughts tend to weaken trees more than one-offs, so that could have been a factor as well. 

Here in Vermont, the drought hasn't exactly been good for trees, especially those that turned brown, yellow or completely wilted in places where the soil has completely dried out. Examples include the now-sad, wilted, brown trees and bushes you see on the ledges along some of Vermont's Interstate highways. 

However, the risk of tree branches suddenly breaking off for no reason while you're at a state or local park are pretty low. But drought does appear to up the chances of that happening, at least a little. 

Vancouver Island has had repeated droughts in recent years, though the island is not currently especially dry for summer. 

Peter Constabel, a professor of biology at the University of Victoria, said he has seen branches of maple and oak trees just break off and fall on calm days during recent droughts.  

Per CTV News again: 

"It's just hot and dry for a long time, and the branch just breaks off. It's really kind of counterintuitive,' said Constabel, adding that the water in the cell walls in the old helps stabilize a weakened tree. 

Simon Fraser University biological sciences professor Jim Mattsson said he had recently witnessed big branches fall from a Douglas fir on Burnaby Mountain 'If some had been hit by that, that could be quite serious,' said Mattsson, adding that a prolonged period of drought can wear down even a Douglas fir, which is usually very drought-resistant."

Droughts reduce photosynthesis and growth, cut energy and sugar reserves and degrade defenses. All this creates a chain reaction that increases the risk of insect and fungal diseases, causing trees to rot inside.

That inside rot inside, increasing the risk of the tree or large branch breaking or falling over. 

Trees in urban settings are most at risk due to compacted soil, less access to water and hotter temperatures in a city's heat island. 

Climate change can make droughts worse, long lasting or more frequent, so this is an issue that will always be there. And it might get more frequent. 

Trees also lose leaves during droughts. That's why you see a lot of leaves on the ground here in Vermont even though it's only August, not October.  Trees try to conserve water during droughts by dropping leaves.  The fewer leaves on a tree, the less water they need. 

It's too soon to tell whether all this will have any effect on our fall foliage season. 

Deep Dive Into Canadian Fires/Smoke: Canada Nightmare, Dangerous Smoke, Climate Change and Politics

Wildfire smoke from Canada turns the evening sun into
just a red dot over Georgia, Vermont on 
August 3, 2025. 

 It's been a smoky summer here in Vermont and much of the rest of the United States because, as you've already heard. Canada is burning again. 

It's the third year in a row that Canada has experienced unprecedented fires. So far, as of earlier this week, 16 million acres have burned, and the fires rage on. Last year, about 13 million Canadian acres burned. 

In 2023, the big, bad year for Canadian fires, nearly 40 million acres went up in smoke. That year, and now this year, are several times worse than each of the other Canadian fire years on record. 

Down here in Vermont, we'd seen smoky days before. Usually from Canadian fires. But in 2023 we entered a whole new world, thanks to Canada's fiery new reality.  Two years ago, many of the big fires north of the border were close by,  in Quebec. 

Since the smoke didn't have far to go to bother us, so it was pretty thick by the time it crossed the border into Vermont. 

This year, Quebec isn't causing the problem. In July, that province had the lowest number of fires in the past 10 years, CBC News reported.

As of Tuesday, just five small fires were burning in Quebec. CBC continues: "The province has seen around 170 fires so far this year, which is more than 200 fewer than the 10-year average,,,,,,In 2023, over 4.5 million hectares of forest burned in  Quebec, compared to 3,000 hectares so far this year."

Much of Quebec just had a super dry heat wave, and prospects for a lot more rain up there are fairly slim.  Quebec forests might be on the verge of bursting into flames.

Some of the fires are burning in unexpected areas. Newfoundland has been oddly hit hard, as you wouldn't expect that stormy, chilly corner of the world to catch on fire all that much.

As of last week, three out of control fires burned near St. John's and in central Newfoundland St. John's is Newfoundland's biggest city with a population of about 110,000. Another fire recently started near  the south coast. 

The series of fires in Newfoundland have prompted evacuations for the past several weeks. More people might well need to flee this week.  Several homes have already been lost to the Newfoundland flames. 

As of August 6, this year was already Canada's
second worst wildfire year on record. 

More people are awaiting possible evacuation alerts as three out-of-control wildfires continue to burn throughout Conception Bay and central Newfoundland, and a fourth fire has ignited in Red Harbour on the Burin Peninsula.  

Oddly hot, dry weather has hit Newfoundland over the past week or two.  One town in Newfoundland hit 98 degrees last week, the province's hottest temperature on record.  

 HEALTH EFFECTS 

As of August 6, Montreal had been under air quality alerts five times so far this year, They got through last year with no such alerts, In 2023, Montreal was under air quality alerts on 19 days. 

Air quality alerts have been piling up in the United States, of course. You alway see tips on how to keep yourself safe from the smoke,  But there's really no escape from it. 

Wildfire smoke is obviously not good for us to breathe.    On days when the air quality index is around 100 to 200, it's similar to smoking a quarter to a half pack of cigarettes a day, May-Lin Wilgus, a pulmonologist and professor at UCLA told NPR.  

That's bad enough for healthy people.  Emergency room visits skyrocket during smoky periods. During the Canadian wildfires two years ago, emergency room visits for asthma in the U.S increased by almost 20 percent.

Wildfire smoke can exacerbate cardiovascular illnesses. Evidence is also growing the smoke can cause a higher risk of developing dementia.

Prospects for smoke clearing anytime soon are dim. The smoke from Canada has thinned, at least for now. But now, much of the western United States is bursting into flames, and that smoke will no doubt make cross country trips through the Midwest and East.  

The smoke probably won't entirely clear until the snow flies.      

POLITICIANS PLAY WITH FIRE

 True to form, U.S. politicians are sticking their noses into the Canadian wildfires, because they smell political MAGA talking points along with the smoke. So we get sad, silly moments like the following:  

Per CBC:

"In a Wednesday news release, Wisconsin state Rep. Calvin Callahan joined other Republican state lawmakers from Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota in filing a formal complaint against Canada to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and the International Joint Commission."

New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik also weighed in, sending letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney telling him, "The scale and severity of these fires continues to raise concerns about Canada's fires management and lack of effective deterrence of human caused fires."

I guess these Republicans are maybe suggesting Canada simply rake its forests like Donald Trump said California should do. Because cleaning and removing leaves, fallen trees, dead trees and more from  the nearly million square miles of forests in Canada is as simple as raking your front lawn in October right?

Forest management is of course a serious topic. It's just that Canada's vast, remote forests can't effectively be managed like many in the United States. Those Canadian forests are just not accessible enough for tree thinning and that sort of thing 

These Republicans are also kissing Trump's ass, trying to pretend to be in agreement that the U.S. should take over Canada as our 51st state so we can "do it right."

Never mind that climate change has increased the chances that Canada's forests will burn every summer.

"We're seeing the effects of prolonged drought, of a lot less snow in the wintertime, leading to drier soils, drier conditions and the early onset of the fire season in the spring," University of Vermont Professor of Forest, Ecology and Forestry recently told WCAX.

By the way, Stefanik, Trump and many other MAGA Republicans support greater use of fossil fuel and cuts to EPA rules that aim to tamp down climate change

If Republicans were honest, we'd keep our own house in order U.S. currently has a growing list of its own wildfires, many of which continue to expand and worsen as I write this. 

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said U.S. Republicans were throwing a "timber tantrum," with their whining about the Canadian wildfire smoke. 

"These are attention-seekers who can't come up with a good idea on health care or on making life more affordable... so they're playing games with something that's very serious."

I also noticed the MAGA politicians have shut their traps in recent days as Canadian smoke waned and western United States wildfires rapidly gained ground. 

Maybe we should send Callahan, Stephanik to manage our western forest, or as their god would say, rake those forests. 

Wednesday Morning: Weird, Dry, Record Heat To End, Some Rain, But No Drought Vermont/SE Canada Drought Buster

A surprise, very local shower formed directly overhead
in St. Albans, Vermont before 8 a.m. today, certainly
delighting me amid our drought conditions. Many
parts of Vermont will see rain today, but that 
won't really solve our drought problems. 

The good news is as of later today, Vermont's Death Valley days are pretty much over.  

It'll remain hot in Vermont today, but it will turn humid. And, for most of us, it's going to rain! There have already been a few scattered surprise showers early today in northwest Vermont.  

More on that in a bit, but we still have to marvel at what happened the past three days, especially  yesterday. 

RECORD HIGHS

The high temperature in Burlington was 98 degrees shattering the old record of 93 set in 2002. 

Other record highs in Vermont were 91 in Montpelier, beating the old record of 89 in 2002. Sutton, Vermont, in a normally cold Northeast Kingdom spot, got up to 96, smashing the old record high for the date of 87. Newport had a record high of 92, Rutland had a record 91.

The most impressive records were set in Canada. Prince Edward Island set a new all-time record hot temperature for the province of 100.5 degrees. Newfoundland tied its all time record high of 98 degrees. Several other towns in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and far eastern Quebec also set all time record highs. 

Some other Vermont heat stats to note: 

Tuesday was the 16th day this year in Burlington that hit 90 degrees or more.  It's only the tenth year out of the past 130 or so that have had that many. 

This week was also only the eighth time in at least 130 years Burlington had three consecutive days that were 95 degrees or hotter. It was also only the eighth time in that time period in which we had highs of 95 degrees or more on five occasions or more in a single summer. 

RARE DRY HEAT EXPLAINED

Here in Vermont I've never seen anything come close to what we experienced in the past three days. I was weird! Sure, we've had a few hotter days than we did Tuesday. It was hotter than yesterday less than two months ago, on June 23-24 for instance .

But the combination of heat and remarkably low humidity was the kicker, especially yesterday. Relative humidities in the teens are unheard of in a New England summer heat wave. 

I still can't believe how fast everything dried out. Official stats should come out Thursday, but I'd say we're in a flash drought. Even with rain in the forecast today, we are in danger of empty wells, damaged crops and forest fires in Vermont, the rest of northern New England and southeast Canada until we see some sustained, soaking rains. Gawd knows when that will happen. 

This weeks' heat wave was an odd, arid exception. 

In general, in our climate-changed world, heat waves around here have actually been generally getting more humid with time. 

A warmer global atmosphere can hold more moisture. Most heat waves in New England develop as the offshore summertime Bermuda High transports oppressive air from tropical waters to our neck of the woods.

That's why that record heat wave in June was so awful, with those heat indexes as high as 115 degrees. The air came straight from the Caribbean, so it was as humid as it can get. That June air was made even more humid because ocean waters around the Caribbean were warmer than average, again in part due to climate change. 

This time, the air didn't really come from the Gulf of Mexico or the tropical Atlantic. 

Instead, the hot August sun went to work on clear skies under unusually strong high pressure that originated in the sunny, dry southern Canadian plains. Once this high pressure made it to eastern Canada and New England, it still didn't have any real connection to moist air from the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.  

Instead, the air flow came from the dry interior of North America. 

One thing that made the past few days of heat ever so slightly more tolerable were the nights. Yes, they were stuffy, especially in warmer valleys like near Lake Champlain. 

But air that's dry doesn't retain nighttime heat like humid air does. Despite the daytime heat, early morning lows have been in the mid 50s to low 60s in most of Vermont, with 60s to around 70 in the Champlain Valley.  That's better than the 70s to near 80 for lows we experienced during that hot spell in June. 

WELCOME RAIN TODAY?

Radar images from shortly before 8 a.m. this morning 
showed almost nothing, but look at that orange patch
over St. Albans. That little downpour formed out
of seemingly nothing. 

To be absolute delight and surprise, a small but relatively heavy shower blossomed out of nowhere right over my house in St. Albans Vermont shortly after 7:30 this morning. It only dropped 0.15 inches of rain, but I'll take anything at this point.    

We sure as hell need the rain. According to WPTZ Chief Meteorologist Tyler Jankowski, this is the first time on record in Burlington that absolutely no rain fell during the first 12 days of August. As mentioned, those records go back to 1884, so that's an impressive record. 

As of this writing, around 8:30 a.m most places around Vermont haven't seen any rain yet today. For many of us, though, it's coming. 

A more impressive area of showers and storms was approaching northwest New York, at that hour, and those should arrive in western Vermont by early afternoon. With the heating of the day, they should turn into batches of hit and miss showers and storms. 

Ahead of this batch of storms, that super dry air we've had is being replaced by quite humid stuff. That will enable some of the storms to dump some pretty heavy rains. On a few spots. 

This is by no means a drought buster.  A few places could get more than an inch of rain in a short period of time. But rain that comes down that hard and that fast tends to run off, rather than soaking nicely into the ground. 

Worse, some places might not see any rain at all.  This is a typical summertime hit and miss situation, so there's going to be some towns left out. Meanwhile, the majority of us should get some rain, but nothing huge. 

The highest chances of rain today run from about noon to 9 p.m. But as we saw here in St. Albans, this morning, there could be some rogue showers at any time. 

I'm actually more worried about lightning than usual. I  wonder if there will be strikes in the mountains and forests that will smolder under the brief rains today. Then, as drier, breezy air returns, will new forest fires break out? It's something to worry about a little. 

A few storms today might have gusty winds, but if there are any severe storms, they will be isolated and brief. 

 It will feel hot and humid today.  Southeastern Vermont in particular could get into the 90s again today, but I suspect most of central and northern Vermont should hold in the 80s.  The humidity will make it feel worse. 

WEATHER OUTLOOK

Tomorrow and Friday will be cooler than it's been, but still warm for the season.  It'll start out kind of humid early tomorrow but you'll notice the air feeling drier as the day goes on with north breezes. A sort of semi-second barely noticeable cold front tomorrow might kick off some widely scattered showers or storms, but most of us won't see anything. 

Friday looks sunny and warm, with low humidity - bad for the drought. Even worse, Saturday will stay dry, and become very warm to borderline hot (Highs well into the 80s, maybe 90 in the warmest valleys).

Another cold front due Sunday should kick off some showers and storms. But once again, they'll be hit and miss, and not overly impressive. Most of next week is looking pretty cool, which isn't surprising. Once we get into the second half of August, you start to notice summer's warmth faltering. 

 

Startling, Weird Desert-Like Heat Wave Instantaneously Dries Out Vermont, Rest Of New England, Canada

Temperature sign in downtown Burlington, 
Vermont on Monday says it all. 

 I don't think I've ever seen a weirder heat wave, and such a rapid drying in Vermont.

Temperatures are near record highs, but we've seen that before. Climate change has us breaking high temperature records all the time, it seems. 

This heat wave is different, though.  Usually, summertime hot spells in New England are humid, oppressive, tropical. This time the air is desert dry.   Monday somehow managed to turn out even a bit drier than dusty Sunday.

The temperature peaked at 96 degrees in Burlington Monday. Not a record high because it fell on the anniversary of the city's hottest reading ever, which was 101 degrees in 1944. Montpelier did reach a record high of 91 degrees. Plattsburgh, New York also had 

Monday's dew point was in the mid-50s, reading to a relative humidity of just 27 percent. That's remarkably arid for an August hot spell.  This extreme heat and dry combo will continue today. More on that further down, but I'm still agog at how fast we went from wet to parched.  

I've seen Vermont get this dry in some past droughts, but not nearly this fast. Within just a few days, leaves on some of the trees along Interstate 89, the ones on thin soil above rock ledges, wilted like lettuce left on a hot stovetop. 

Lawns turned from green to brown seemingly overnight. Even the weeds on parts of my property shriveled up and died. 

I couldn't keep up with the watering on Monday.  I'd notice some perennials wilting in the arid heat, the same ones I'd thoroughly soaked the day before.  I'd water them, then move the sprinkler somewhere else. Those  perennials I'd just watered early in the afternoon were thirsty again by sundown.  

The only plant I have that seemed happy was a cactus in one dry, sandy corner of my gardens. Today will be another 

RECORD HIGHS 

Wilting goldenrods and parched ground in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning amid our
developing flash drought. 

Some places did have record highs Monday.  Montpelier reach a record high of 91 degrees, beating the old record of 90 in 2016. Montpelier's records only go back to 1949, which is why that 1944 heat is missing from Montpelier's data. 

Plattsburgh, New York also had record high of 91 degrees Monday. 

I don't know for sure whether the summit of Mount Mansfield set a record high but it must have, having reached an incredible 86 degrees, pretty remarkable for a Vermont weather station at about 4,300 feet in elevation. 

The summit of Mount Washington was 66 degrees at 3 p.m, - very hot for them. 

The heat and drought if anything  has been crushing in southeast Canada. Bathurst, in northern New Brunswick set their all time August record high on Sunday, only to have that record beaten Monday with a high of 99.5 degrees.  It was 95 degrees in both Montreal and Ottawa. 

In Nova Scotia, record highs included 99 at South Ingonish Harbor and 36.2 at Ingonish Beach. So much for a cool, refreshing vacation in the Canadian Maritimes!

Here in Vermont, more record highs will be broken today, as we'll have almost exactly the same weather as yesterday. The record high in Burlington today is 93 degrees, so we should get past that. A heat advisory is still in effect for the Champlain Valley, but really, it will be hot everywhere in the (slightly less) Green Mountain State today. 

The rapid drying should continue. As you might imagine, the forest fire danger in Vermont is very high. That's also true across northern New York, northern New England, southern Quebec. New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland remains very high and dangerous. 

HEAT RELIEF, AND A LITTLE RAIN?

Tomorrow will be the day we're waiting for as that cold front is still expected to come through. It will be one more hot day, especially in southern Vermont, which will see the clouds and showers from the front later in the day. It will also be noticeably more humid for just one day. 

It now looks like many of us will get some rain Wednesday. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is thinking about 75 percent of Vermont will see some rain tomorrow. 

Most of us won't get all that much, and whatever comes out of the sky won't solve our new drought problems. But at least we'll get a break.

Some unlucky towns won't get any rain at all, which is bad news. Some areas will see a nice if brief torrential downpour. In general, the northern Vermont will do a little better than the south.  In the northern half, rainfall for most people (but not everybody) should be in the quarter to half inch range, with a few lucky devils seeing three quarters of an inch or so.

Southern Vermont should get somewhere between practically nothing and a quarter inch. With a few pinpoint spots seeing a little extra. 

All this will help with the dry weather temporarily but will be no cure. As I keep saying, we need several day long, soaking rains, which are not in the cards for now. 

A few of Wednesday's thunderstorms might be on the strong side, but the atmosphere doesn't look like it will support any widespread severe weather.

RETURN TO DRY

Thursday and Friday will give us a break from the heat, but the humidity will be at rock bottom again, so the drying will resume.  It might be briefly warm to hot, but dry Saturday before another cold front arrives Sunday. 

So far, that Sunday cold front does to look that impressive, so don't count on a lot of rain with that. 

The weather pattern is looking like it will shift into a new configuration after this coming weekend. But it's not one that will help with the dry conditions.  It's a change from previous forecasts that indicated it would stay very warm through the end of the month. 

The latest extended forecasts favor mostly cool,  maybe sometimes almost autumn like weather through the end of the month . But with an air flow from the northwest, weather systems might tend to be moisture-starved because the overall air flow would prevent deep moisture from moving up from the south. 

The blast furnace heat will end after today but a drought looks like it might want to continue to develop and deepen.