Green Mountains Of Vermont To Often Fade Behind A Smoky Haze For The Rest Of Summer. A Climate Change Story

Smoke obscures the view along Lake Champlain 
last summer, July 26, 2025.

Vermont's first air quality alert of the summer went into effect this past Sunday. Thankfully, the bad air didn't turn out to be quite as bad as feared.  

The wildfire smoke that was approaching the state from southern Quebec dissipated more and sooner than expected, leaving us with relatively safe air, although it was kind of hazy. 

Get used to the haze. It's going to be with us much of the rest of the summer. And probably the first half of autumn. 

I'm sure we will see more air quality alerts before mountains snows in Canada and the West finally snuff out the fires. 

Huge wildfires are burning in the U.S. West. There's an enormous cluster of fires burning west of Hudson Bay, Canada. More fires are raging in northern Canada. All that smoke has to go somewhere. 

Often, that pollution will end up in the eastern United States, including here in Vermont.  That fact is always a bummer for me. 

During June, North American wildfires were not especially extensive. Which left us with plenty of days in which we could gaze out at the Green Mountains of Vermont and they were.....green.  Luscious, rich, elegant, gorgeous green as far as the eyes could see. All this under a deep, pure blue sky flecked with puffy white clouds. You know, the iconic view of a Vermont summer.  

Those days of clear air will now become much fewer and further between for the rest of the summer.  

Until recent years, wildfire smoke in Vermont hadn't been a thing. Back in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, we did had a lot of "Those Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer," as Nat King Cole sang in a 1963 hit. Especially haze. That was mostly ickiness from auto exhaust and factory smokestacks to Vermont's south and west during mid-20th century heat waves. 

The Clean Air Act removed a lot of the haze. Not all of it, but it was an improvement. Then, in the past decade or so,  wildfires around the world, including in North American started getting worse. The hotter world dries out the forests earlier in the spring than they once did. Those forests keep getting more and more parched as sumner goes on.    

So, many of the forests went poof.   

Forest fires now burn more than twice as much tree cover as they did two decades ago, according to University of Maryland researchers. 

All those fires spew smoke, obviously. Per-person exposure to wildlife smoke in the United States was four times higher during 2020-24 on average each year, than during 2006-2019, according to Climate Central. 

The haze from these huge fires often ends up engulfing much if not all of the United States, including here in Vermont. 

Summertime air quality alerts in the Green Mountain State used to be a rarity.  But that's changed. Most recent summers have featured many hazy, acrid days. A few days in the summer nowadays are actually dangerously polluted. 

Even if the pollution isn't enough to prompt those alerts in our climate changed world, the smoke spoils the view.  The mountains, especially those in the distance, fade into a bluish, grayish murk. Some days, the smoke is high overhead, so the mountains still looks vivid and green. But the sky overhead is depressing. Instead of a deep blue, it's an almost colorless, weak =pale grey-blue. 

That looks like Vermont's future for the rest of the summer.  

That's not to say every day will feature haze. Air currents can still thread the needle between the wildfires and the smoky areas to deliver delightfully clear, refreshing air. Or, on some days, the smoke will be thin enough to be just an accent, giving the mountains just an added shade of blue mixed with the green. 

At least the sunrises and sunsets will be more spectacular as the smoke brings out the reds and oranges in the clouds. 

As I write this Wednesday morning, the sky overhead is blue enough, but the distant Adirondacks are barely visible through an off-blue haze the color of exhaust from a malfunctioning 1970s-era Buick.  

Climate change isn't only about heat waves and weird weather. It chips away at our health, our atmosphere, our way of life, our well being.  I just wish the Powers That Be would recognize that when they complain about a lousy view of the mountains during their Vermont summer vacations  

The Pace Of Climate Change Is Accelerating. Will El Nino Make Things Worse?

The pace of climate change on Earth has quickened in
recent years. Will the faster pace get even faster, or
will things revert back to a more manageable pace.
That will have a lot of repercussions as how
we deal with a hotter planet.

 Now that it looks more likely an El Nino will set in later this year, scientists are debating how hot it will get. 

The three most recent years have been by far the world's hottest on record. El Ninos tend to make the world even hotter.

That's not good news. 

Since we're starting from such an already overheated position, will a new El Nino put us on a  dangerous new trajectory in which the world will heat up at a new, faster pace. 

Or was it a hiccup, and we'll revert to a somewhat more relaxed but still scary increase in global heat?

Both options are bad, but the rapid heat up version is obviously most frightening, as we'd quickly enter a world where heat waves blow far past anything previously recorded and storms would make Hurricane Melissa look like a refreshing tropical shower. 

In the past decade or two, the past of global heating has accelerated. Which makes people wonder if we are at the start of an era when things really spiral out of control.

WHERE WE ARE

A Washington Post analysis found that although the Earth has been warming for a century or more, the fastest rate of warming has been over the past 30 years. 

Per WaPo

"For about 40 years -- from 1970 to 2010 - global warming proceeded at a fairly steady rate. As humans continued to pump massive amounts of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, the world warmed about 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade or around 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Then, that rate began to shift. The warming rate ticked up a notch. Temperatures over the past decade increased by close to 0.27 degrees  C per decade - about a 42 percent increase." 

In matters of climate, a decade is a really short period. So this new intense rate of warming might be a big deal. Or it could be a blip caused by factors other than fossil fuel emissions.

Ominously, a number of climate scientists are leaning toward the idea that this is a real acceleration that will last, especially since it's been so robust.

 "There is a greater acceptance now that there is a detectable acceleration of warming," said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.  

Many people in the eastern half of the United States can be forgiven if they think climate change is sputtering, since it's been so cold there. 

However overall, January was the world's fifth hottest on record. (I'll have more details on January in a separate post). 

While the eastern U.S. froze, many other parts or the world were ablaze with unseasonable heat. Much of the western third of the United States has had a record warm winter. Nuuk, Greenland ran an incredible 20 degrees warmer than normal during January. And are plenty of other examples. '

In other words, the recent cold weather was just a temporary fluke. 

EL NINO URGENCY

This idea that climate change might be accelerating isn't all that new. The buzz began in earnest when 2024 became the hottest year on record. This, after 2023 absolutely obliterated 2016 as the previous worldwide record for hot year.

But as we went through 2025, a La Nina pattern that usually cools the Earth barely moved the needle downward. Last year was the third warmest on record, barely behind the previous two years. Now that La Nina is fading, we're starting at that high base line for when El Nino roasts the planet toward more records,.

The cooler La Nina was fading fast this month. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center last week said we'd go into neutral conditions soon (neither La Nina or El Nino). El Nino would probable wait until autumn to arrive. 

 Since El Nino is starting later this year, climatologists are beginning to make 2026 seems unlikely to become the hottest year.  

The UK Met Office is predicting 2026 will end up as second warmest, behind 2024. Which means it will be slightly warmer than the hot years of 2023 and 2025.

Hausfather thinks 2026 will be among the top four hottest on record.

 The year to watch is 2027 when, if trends continue, the unprecedented global heat could turn especially intolerable.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

So why didn't the La Nina we just experienced over the past year or so fail to cool the world down noticeably?

One explanation for the added warming is pollution controls. We've seen news on this before, too. Asian nations, and the shipping industry have cut back on sulfur pollution. Those environmental laws have removed particles called sulfate aerosols from the atmosphere. 

That allows the sun to shine stronger and brighter, heating the world even more.  

However, as WaPo explains, the missing sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere doesn't  explain all the recent warming.  Neither does natural variability.

Scientists, said they've noticed low-lying cloud cover has decreased. Those clouds reflect sunlight. Fewer clouds mean more heat. 

One question is why are the clouds disappearing?  Clouds tend to form around particles. A lack of sulfate in the atmosphere might mean fewer particles for clouds to develop. This could create a feedback loop. Fewer clouds mean more heating. That additional heat makes still fewer clouds form, and it all feeds on itself from there.  

The Washington Post explains the question

"If most of the current record warmth is due to changing amounts of aerosol pollution, the acceleration would stop once aerosol pollutants reach zero - and the planet would return to its previous, slower rate.

But if it's due to a cloud feedback loop, the acceleration is likely to continue - and bring with it worsening heat waves, storms and droughts. 'If there is a strengthening cloud feedback - a positive cloud feedback associated with warming - that's going to persist,' Hausfather said."

The  bottom line is, we're playing with fire. The faster climate change moves, the harder it will be to adapt to it, and the more damage and suffering we'll encounter. 

This should be a sign we ought to double down on reducing fossil fuel emissions, and quickly. Humankind has barely been able to manage the changing climate so far. If things go a lot faster than they are now, god help us.  

Trump Marches On With His Goal To Make World Hotter, More Polluted, Less Safe

Energy Secretary Chris Wright seems to understand coal,
but doesn't appear to know what batteries are. He's demanding
to coal plants in Indiana stay open because he figures
solar and wind energy doesn't work because sometimes
the weather is cloudy and calm. Sigh. 

Donald Trump has been in the headlines lately for his attack on Venezuela, his threats to other nations and his long held wish to earn a Nobel Peace Prize by (checks notes) bombing, attacking and threatening other nations. 

But Trump is no one-trick pony, no siree! He's got to continue his mission to worsen climate change and make the environment less safe for both humans and wildlife. 

We've got yet another example, as if we needed it. Let's go to Indiana to find out more:  

E&E News by Politico reports:

"The Department of Energy ordered two Indiana coal plants Tuesday to postpone retirement and continue operating, expanding President Donald Trump's campaign to aid fossil fuels."

DOE had previously ordered two other coal plants to stay open. The new orders to keep the Indiana plants operating came less than a month before they were to close down permanently.  Energy Secretary Chris Wright said data center construction will create the need for more capacity. 

The orders to keep the plants open technically expire March 23, but you can bet a cloud of ozone air pollution that the Trumpsters will insist the plants stay open way past then. 

Then, as Wright often does, he either demonstrates extreme stupidity or he's such a cult follower of Donald Trump that he'll say things like this:

"Keeping these coal plants online has the potential to save lives and is just common sense. Americans deserve reliable power regardless of whether the winds is blowing or the sun is shining during extreme weather conditions."

Wright still hasn't heard of batteries? A little alarming, considering he's the Energy Secretary.  

Wright's critics, and there are a lot of 'em, say that keeping the tottering old coal plants running would actually drive up electricity prices while doing nothing to increase reliability. Environmentalists and consumer advocates point to a Michigan coal plant that was previously ordered to stay open by the Trump administration.

The big old coals plant in Michigan has cost ratepayers $80 million. I wonder how much a few wind turbines or solar panels would cost in comparison

In this current mess, the 800-megawatt Schahfer plant in Indiana was set to close Northern Indiana Public Service  Co (NIPSCO) was planning on getting out of the coal generation altogether and replace them with solar and gas facilities. 

The utility was planning to install 2,600 megawatts of gas generation at the site of Schahfer to serve new Amazon data centers. 

Which sounds more efficient and able to keep up with data center demands than an old coal plant. So I'm not sure why the Trump gang is so wedded to coal here. NIPSCO hasn't really addressed how the "you must burn coal' directive will affect their ability to supply electricity to the data centers.

NIPSCO did say that it is essential stuck. 

"Compliance with this directive is mandatory. We are carefully reviewing the details of this order to assess its impact on our employees, customers and company to ensure compliance," the utility said in a statement. "While this development alters the timeline for decommissioning this station, our long-term plan to transition to a more sustainable energy future remains unchanged."

What has changed is any attempt to go toward a more sustainable future has to wait until Trump and his minions disappear and are replaced by a government that actually follows both the law and logic. 

In the meantime, air pollution will increase or at the very best not get worse. And once again, Trump will contribute to one of the few things he's good at: creating more intense climate change.  I don't know what's worse. The hot air out of his mouth or the hot air created by his quote, unquote policies. 

Report: Heat Waves Now Killing One Person Every Minute Around Globe

A report in the medical journal The Lancet said that
with climate change, heat waves on average are killing
one person per minute. 

As we head into winter, we don't think about heat waves all that much, but they're still making the news. 

Mostly because of their increasing intensity and increasing risk of death associated with these events, all due to climate change. 

As Grist tells us: 

"Extreme heat now kills one person every minute, according to the report, noting that the rate of heat-related deaths has risen 23 percent since the 1990s - a trend the authors attribute in large part to planetary warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The vast majority of the heatwave days endured worldwide between 2020 and 2024 would not have occurred in the absence of climate change."

The news is from "Countdown On Health and Climate Change" which is compiled by researchers around the world and has been published yearly since 2015 in British medical journal Lancet. 

These annual reports always seem to have bad news. Grist notes that the 2020 report said that climate change threatened to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health. This year's report said that loss has already begun, thanks in large part to the increasing heat deaths. 

But it's not just the heat. Hot weather worsens drought, which can in turn worsen forest fires. Deaths might well be increasing due to tiny particles these fires emit.

One for-instance is last January's horrible wildfires around Los Angeles. The official death toll is around 30. But, as we noted in September, studies indicate the actual death toll might have been closer to 440, based on a review of death records around the time of the fires. 

Heat waves and droughts contribute to food insecurity, which in turn can fire up political instability. Tropical diseases are spreading away from the equator, as insects that can spread them find they can increase their range as the planet warms. 

Climbing global temperatures and heat waves are also sapping productivity and the economy. 

The 2025 Lancet report puts all these factors in stark relief. The World Health Organization, citing the report, motes that 640 billion potential labor hours were lost in 2024, with productivity losses amounting to $1.09 trillion in U.S. dollars.  

Battling climate change appears to have economic benefits, according to the report. An estimated 160,000 premature deaths are now being avoided yearly because coal-powered plants have shut down. Renewable energy now accounts for 123 percent of global electricity, and that has created about 16 million jobs worldwide. 

We have a lot of statistics here, but remember, there are real people behind all those numbers. We, as a global population have to decide: Are we going to let more and more people die in a increasingly hostile climate world, or are we going to build up a cleaner, safer future and create a higher standard of living in the process?

Most of the 1% don't care whether people live or die in a climate-ravaged world. They just want to hang on to their billions. But there's far more of us than them. Let's hope, in a peaceful way, we can overwhelm that 1% and find our way to a cleaner, cooler future. 

The cynic in me is skeptical. But you gotta hang on to hope, too. 

Deep Dive Into Canadian Fires/Smoke: Canada Nightmare, Dangerous Smoke, Climate Change and Politics

Wildfire smoke from Canada turns the evening sun into
just a red dot over Georgia, Vermont on 
August 3, 2025. 

 It's been a smoky summer here in Vermont and much of the rest of the United States because, as you've already heard. Canada is burning again. 

It's the third year in a row that Canada has experienced unprecedented fires. So far, as of earlier this week, 16 million acres have burned, and the fires rage on. Last year, about 13 million Canadian acres burned. 

In 2023, the big, bad year for Canadian fires, nearly 40 million acres went up in smoke. That year, and now this year, are several times worse than each of the other Canadian fire years on record. 

Down here in Vermont, we'd seen smoky days before. Usually from Canadian fires. But in 2023 we entered a whole new world, thanks to Canada's fiery new reality.  Two years ago, many of the big fires north of the border were close by,  in Quebec. 

Since the smoke didn't have far to go to bother us, so it was pretty thick by the time it crossed the border into Vermont. 

This year, Quebec isn't causing the problem. In July, that province had the lowest number of fires in the past 10 years, CBC News reported.

As of Tuesday, just five small fires were burning in Quebec. CBC continues: "The province has seen around 170 fires so far this year, which is more than 200 fewer than the 10-year average,,,,,,In 2023, over 4.5 million hectares of forest burned in  Quebec, compared to 3,000 hectares so far this year."

Much of Quebec just had a super dry heat wave, and prospects for a lot more rain up there are fairly slim.  Quebec forests might be on the verge of bursting into flames.

Some of the fires are burning in unexpected areas. Newfoundland has been oddly hit hard, as you wouldn't expect that stormy, chilly corner of the world to catch on fire all that much.

As of last week, three out of control fires burned near St. John's and in central Newfoundland St. John's is Newfoundland's biggest city with a population of about 110,000. Another fire recently started near  the south coast. 

The series of fires in Newfoundland have prompted evacuations for the past several weeks. More people might well need to flee this week.  Several homes have already been lost to the Newfoundland flames. 

As of August 6, this year was already Canada's
second worst wildfire year on record. 

More people are awaiting possible evacuation alerts as three out-of-control wildfires continue to burn throughout Conception Bay and central Newfoundland, and a fourth fire has ignited in Red Harbour on the Burin Peninsula.  

Oddly hot, dry weather has hit Newfoundland over the past week or two.  One town in Newfoundland hit 98 degrees last week, the province's hottest temperature on record.  

 HEALTH EFFECTS 

As of August 6, Montreal had been under air quality alerts five times so far this year, They got through last year with no such alerts, In 2023, Montreal was under air quality alerts on 19 days. 

Air quality alerts have been piling up in the United States, of course. You alway see tips on how to keep yourself safe from the smoke,  But there's really no escape from it. 

Wildfire smoke is obviously not good for us to breathe.    On days when the air quality index is around 100 to 200, it's similar to smoking a quarter to a half pack of cigarettes a day, May-Lin Wilgus, a pulmonologist and professor at UCLA told NPR.  

That's bad enough for healthy people.  Emergency room visits skyrocket during smoky periods. During the Canadian wildfires two years ago, emergency room visits for asthma in the U.S increased by almost 20 percent.

Wildfire smoke can exacerbate cardiovascular illnesses. Evidence is also growing the smoke can cause a higher risk of developing dementia.

Prospects for smoke clearing anytime soon are dim. The smoke from Canada has thinned, at least for now. But now, much of the western United States is bursting into flames, and that smoke will no doubt make cross country trips through the Midwest and East.  

The smoke probably won't entirely clear until the snow flies.      

POLITICIANS PLAY WITH FIRE

 True to form, U.S. politicians are sticking their noses into the Canadian wildfires, because they smell political MAGA talking points along with the smoke. So we get sad, silly moments like the following:  

Per CBC:

"In a Wednesday news release, Wisconsin state Rep. Calvin Callahan joined other Republican state lawmakers from Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota in filing a formal complaint against Canada to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and the International Joint Commission."

New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik also weighed in, sending letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney telling him, "The scale and severity of these fires continues to raise concerns about Canada's fires management and lack of effective deterrence of human caused fires."

I guess these Republicans are maybe suggesting Canada simply rake its forests like Donald Trump said California should do. Because cleaning and removing leaves, fallen trees, dead trees and more from  the nearly million square miles of forests in Canada is as simple as raking your front lawn in October right?

Forest management is of course a serious topic. It's just that Canada's vast, remote forests can't effectively be managed like many in the United States. Those Canadian forests are just not accessible enough for tree thinning and that sort of thing 

These Republicans are also kissing Trump's ass, trying to pretend to be in agreement that the U.S. should take over Canada as our 51st state so we can "do it right."

Never mind that climate change has increased the chances that Canada's forests will burn every summer.

"We're seeing the effects of prolonged drought, of a lot less snow in the wintertime, leading to drier soils, drier conditions and the early onset of the fire season in the spring," University of Vermont Professor of Forest, Ecology and Forestry recently told WCAX.

By the way, Stefanik, Trump and many other MAGA Republicans support greater use of fossil fuel and cuts to EPA rules that aim to tamp down climate change

If Republicans were honest, we'd keep our own house in order U.S. currently has a growing list of its own wildfires, many of which continue to expand and worsen as I write this. 

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said U.S. Republicans were throwing a "timber tantrum," with their whining about the Canadian wildfire smoke. 

"These are attention-seekers who can't come up with a good idea on health care or on making life more affordable... so they're playing games with something that's very serious."

I also noticed the MAGA politicians have shut their traps in recent days as Canadian smoke waned and western United States wildfires rapidly gained ground. 

Maybe we should send Callahan, Stephanik to manage our western forest, or as their god would say, rake those forests. 

Arguably Worst Vermont Smoke Attack Yet, And Sunday Rains Not Behaving As Expected

Smoke obscuring Lake Champlain Saturday, as
seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont. 

Cough, cough.

Boy, yesterday was rough in Vermont. Sure, it was a nice day, except for the thick clouds of smoke and haze we endured. 

Unexpectedly, Saturday probably brought Vermont the most polluted air of the year, thanks to wildfire smoke from Canada. 

We knew days in advance there would be smoke in the air, but most forecasters expected the bulk of it to remain aloft, with just some relatively minor dents to our air quality down here on the ground. 

Instead, a zone of sinking air pushed the smoke to the ground in a band from southern Quebec down through western New England and extreme eastern New York. The result was some of the worst air I've ever seen, even worse than what we saw in 2023. 

Montreal Saturday morning became the most polluted city in the world, 

The air quality index fell to near 200 in some places across northern Vermont. The air endangered people with pre-existing health issues, and was generally bad for everyone. The air improved somewhat toward Saturday evening, but was still pretty bad. 

Like it or not, we all smoked at least a couple cigarettes Saturday. 

The air quality alert in northern and central Vermont has expired, at least for now.  Far southern Vermont remains under an air quality alert, though. Still, the air isn't great. As of this morning, the air quality index was somewhere in the 115 to 125 range, which is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. 

Smoke forecasts look better later today as the air cleans up a little more, but not completely. That's temporary.  It looks like another batch of smoke might come down from the north tomorrow, so it's not over.   

Since we're going to have repeated batches of northwest winds from Canada through the upcoming week, and since there's still a lot of large fires burning in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, we can expect more smoky, unhealthy air to blow through probably until at least next weekend. 

TODAY

 This is turning into a long post, as things are actually pretty busy in the weather department.

As expected, a lot of us in Vermont woke up to a rainy early Sunday morning. But the rain wasn't working out quite as predicted, especially in the north. 

It was suppose to barely rain in far northern Vermont, so why did I wake up to a torrential downpour before 7 a.m, in St. Albans?

 I'm not blaming the National Weather Service or anybody else. The subtlest shifts in the atmosphere can radially change things at the last moment.  

The result was a split into two rainy areas. Southern Vermont saw steady, sometimes briefly heavy rain, Sunday morning rains, just as predicted. In fact, forecasters were carefully watching central and eastern New York and perhaps into Bennington County in Vermont for the risk of rains torrential enough to cause flash flooding.

As of 9 a.m. there was no trouble, at least in Vermont. Any flood threat in these areas should end by late morning or early afternoon. 

But another batch of occasionally heavy rain set up in far northern Vermont. So places like St. Albans, Jay Peak and Newport that were expected perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain at most got much, much more than that. 

It looks like a push of humid air acted like a snow plow, causing a narrow band of rising air that formed into a line of downpours that found its way to the Canadian border.

Central Vermont mostly missed out, at least through 9 a.m. Some rain did fall in Burlington, making this the 32nd weekend in a row with at least some rain. We broke the record for most such consecutive weekends last Sunday, and this solidified the record even more,.

Still, central Vermont is getting a bit on the dry side, so it's too bad they missed out, especially since it appears not much rain is in the forecast for the next week. 

REST OF TODAY

After the morning weather disturbance with its locally heavy rain move out, we'll be left with a return to very humid conditions.

That means cloudy skies will give way to some sun, and temperatures should get into the low 80s. The humidity and subtle left over disturbances in the atmosphere could touch off some widely scattered thunderstorms. Most places won't see a storm this afternoon and evening, but some of us will.

I don't see anything severe, just local downpours here and there and some lightning. There might be a bit of an uptick in scattered storms this evening as a weak wind shift line come through. 

GOING FORWARD

The forecast we've been touting hasn't changed much for the upcoming week, other than a few tweaks.

Monday and Tuesday now both look quite warm, with highs in the 80s to maybe near 90 both days in a couple spots. 

Some thunderstorms might develop Tuesday as the first of a series of cold fronts come in.  Wednesday should be slightly cooler, but another cold front could set off more thunderstorms. It's too soon to determine how many and how strong they might be.

Then, after that, we have that cool spell we've been talking about. It doesn't look like it will be quite as chilly or as long lasting as first thought. Only one day - Friday - will be much cooler than normal. It now looks like the coldest air will stay up in Quebec. 

But otherwise, Thursday through Sunday look bright, dry, sunny, mild and refreshing. Then it will warm up again. Don't know how much yet. 

 

cold snap\

While some guidance continues to show lingering rain behind yet
another boundary on Thursday, our region will largely be high
and dry Thursday through Sunday as an expansive ridge of high
pressure slowly migrates eastward. Only Friday looks to be
anomalously cool, per NAEFS mean and EFI climatological tools, with
temperatures probably resembling what we saw this past Monday.
Generally the much cooler air mass that was on the table is
looking more likely to bypass us to the northeast, but for those
who desire warm, but not hot, days with low humidity should
have a nice weekend in store. As noted by the previous
forecaster, we`ll still need to monitor potential for wildfire
smoke to be advected in from the north, as it may be present
not far away later this week in northern Ontario.

Canadian Wildfire Smoke Is Back. And It's Coming For Us In Vermont Again

Atmosphere smoke map over Canada and the United
States for midafternoon tomorrow. Map is from
firesmoke.ca  Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see. 

Much like two summers ago, Canada is having another horrific wildfire season already.

Though not quite as bad as 2023, it's bad. (I don't think it can get worse than 2023, but who knows?) 

Most of the wildfires so far are in Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan.  More than 25,000 people have been evacuated in the three provinces. 

The fires continue to spread amid hot (for Canada) and dry conditions, so there's no end in sight. 

More than 5,000 people have been evacuated from the interestingly named city of Flin Flon, Manitoba, which is on the Saskatchewan border about 400 miles northwest of Winnipeg. That's the entire community's population. 

Flin Flon has been menaced by wildfires for a week now. As of Sunday, no homes in Flin Flon had burned, but an expected change in wind direction this week could change that, CBS reported. 

Canadian firefighters are being helped by other firefighters from as far away as Alaska, Oregon and Arizona. 

Much of that wildfire smoke has been billowing southward through southern Canada into the United States. 

Air quality alerts were in effect Sunday for south central Canada, and in North Dakota, along with parts of South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota.

An air quality alert continues in effect for much of Minnesota today. 

The smoke has spread well beyond that, but is mostly aloft in other areas of the United States, Some Canadian wildfire smoke was in the air this morning across a huge area of the Midwest and Southeast, all the way down to Georgia.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Traffic makes its way along Interstate 89 near 
Georgia, Vermont through a smoky atmosphere
on June 25, 2023.  Smoky skies are expected
to return to Vermont this week, but it won't 
be nearly as bad as it was in the summer of 2023.

The nor'easter we had this weekend sort of kept the smoke at bay, but those completely haze-free days are numbered. 

You'll start to notice the hazy skies over Vermont as soon as this evening. The haze over Vermont will look even thicker tomorrow and Wednesday,  according to current smoke forecasts.

Once it arrive over Vermont, most of the smoke will be aloft and not near the surface, so air quality down where we breathe might not be perfect, but also not particularly dangerous. 

Still, the smoke will have an effect. Forecasts issued Sunday said that by Wednesday parts of Vermont would have their first 90 degree day of the year during this week's dramatic warm up. 

But now it looks like the smoke will dim the sun enough to hold temperatures in the 80s. Still very warm, but the smoke will make a bit of a difference.  

Smoke can have a widespread cooling effect.  There was so much smoke from Canada in 2023 that the entire northern hemisphere that summer was more than 1.5 degrees cooler than it would otherwise have been, New Scientist reports.

There isn't nearly as much smoke now as in 2023, so this year's temperature effects won't be as dramatic. 

It's also a psychologically disappointing and disconcerting to stare up at a milky grayish and yellowish and smoky sky instead of the deep blue that signifies a fresh Vermont summer. Especially since we had precious little sunshine in May. 

So far at least, there aren't a lot of fires burning in Quebec, and those that might be smoldering up there are small and contained. Quebec is of course much closer to Vermont than Manitoba, so a nearby fire in Quebec fire means more smoke for us in the Green Mountain State.

The relative lack of Quebec fires so far means in the immediate future at least, Vermont shouldn't have those choking clouds of smoke that really messed up air quality at times in the summer of 2023.  

But in the next few months, we will probably have an increase in the number of hazy skies over Vermont like we have in recent summers. The wildfire season in the western United States will soon go into high gear, potentially adding to the smoke-clouded skies.

Climate change is increasing the number and ferocity of wildfires, so the now nearly annual summer smoke is just one price we have to pay here in Vermont for a warmer world.  

Trump: Make America Polluted Again

The Trump administration's planned rollback of
emissions standards could reintroduce acid rain,
create more smoggy days and cost us money
Make America Polluted Again! 

 Back in the bad old days in the 1970s and 1980s, the rain and snow coming into Vermont was so acidic from pollution that many of those stunted but old evergreen trees on the highest elevations of the Green Mountains were dying.  

Thanks to 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act that limited nitrous oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, the rain became less acidic. It took years but those high elevation evergreens are recovering nicely. 

The problem isn't entirely solved. Our lakes in Vermont are still acidic, and the pH of the rain is still a little on the low side. But things are definitely better. 

Or maybe not. 

In his infinite wisdom, President Donald Trump wants to aggressively roll back pollution controls. 

Per the Guardian:

"The U.S. could be plunged back into an era of toxic acid rain, an environmental problem thought to have been solved decades ago, due to the Donald Trump administration's rollback of pollution protections, the scientist who discovered the existence of acid rain in North America has warned."

That scientist, Gene Likens, first identified acidic rainwater back in the 1960s.

Likens explained:

"I'm very worried that might happen, it's certainly not impossible that it could happen,' Likens, 90, told the Guardian. Likens is still involved in a long-term monitoring project stretching back to 1976, to sample rainwater for acidity but this program has just had its funding cut by the Trump administration."

Well, of course it has.

The 1990 legislation turned the battle against acid rain into a success story. "If the Trump administration  starts releasing controls on emissions we are going to destroy that success story," Likens said. 

The Guardian tells us what's at stake.

"The plan by the EPA to eliminate or weaken 31 regulations, a move called a 'dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion,' by the agency's administrator, Lee Zeldin, risks many thousands of extra deaths and litany of heart, lung and other illnesses, according to the EPA's own estimates of the rules' benefits."

Overall, Trump has tried to stop clean energy develop and resurrect coal, which is the dirtiest of fossil fuels. 

Coal was one of the biggest culprits in causing acid rain. Although Trump wants a lot of coal plants, market forces might not allow Trump's dream of coal burning industries everywhere. 

Much of Trump's agenda is just to make his billionaire friends even richer. But MAGA also has an anti-intellectual mindset that thinks anyone who is quote, unquote "smart" as suspect. 

"There's a viewpoint now that scientists are the bad guys, that the science is corrupt - things that just aren't true"," said Richard Peltier, an environmental scientist at the University of Massachusetts.

AUTO EMISSIONS

A big centerpiece of Trump's anti-environment agenda is to roll back auto emissions standards. Which of course leads to more air pollution. That wouldn't be the only thing we'd suffer. 

Like Trump's tariffs, the emissions standards rollback could well cost you and me even more money, as Fast Company reports. 

Chris Harto, a senior policy analyst at Consumer Reports who focuses on energy efficiency, explains it to Fast Company which wrote: 

"Under Biden the EPA enacted the emissions standard and the Department of Transportation enacted fuel economy standards. Both help clean up combustion vehicles -and both are in Trump's crosshairs, as the standards were created in coordination with each other. Making vehicles more efficient, Harto explains, comes with the 'very fortunate side benefit of making the vehicles cheaper to fuel.'

Those combined rules, a Consumer Reports analysis found, would delivery more than $2 trillion in consumer fuel savings by 2050. 'That's a massive amount of money that's at stake,' Harto says." 

We all want to save money, but we really do need to circle back to air pollution, and perhaps even more importantly, climate change. 

Fast Company again: 

"Speaking to reporters, Trump said that the new auto emissions standards don't 'mean a damn bit of difference for the environment but 'make it impossible for people to build cars.'

Harto contests both claims. The Consumer Reports analysis also found that by 2050, the auto emissions standards would reduce pollution by 12 billion tons. 'It's the single most impactful piece of climate regulation that the U.S, has even put in place,' he said."

 But, of course the Trump team is MAPA: Make American Polluted Again.

 

Vermont Record Above Zero Streak Snaps; Snow Forecast Increases, And Air Pollution Later In Week?

Burlington, Vermont got below zero overnight, ending
a record 663 days of continuously above zero readings.

The record streak of continuously above zero temperatures in Burlington, Vermont finally ended Sunday night. 

Before midnight, it got below zero, ending a 663-day streak that started on February 26 2023.  The previous record longest streak was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

It was obviously cold everywhere around the region.  The usual icebox, Saranac Lake, New York, got down to at least 22 below early today. Lake Eden, Vermont was at 17 below.  Morrisville and Montpelier shared a 10 below reading. 

High temperatures Sunday never got above the single numbers in many areas, setting the stage for the morning's subzero cold.

It was a worrisome night for homeless people in the area, and there are unfortunately many in Vermont. There was no room left at shelters and hotels around the state, according to advocates for the homeless, so they resorted to handing out sleeping bags and other winter gear and hoped for the best. 

A warming center was set up in one Burlington building last night, and volunteers drove around to make unhoused people aware.  I know some people look with distain on the homeless, as some of them are substance abusers and a few of them commit crimes. But as exasperating as shoplifting can get, those who do that sort of thing don't deserve the death penalty by freezing.

If you don't like such frigid weather, you're in luck. This will be the last time it gets below zero at least until we get past New Year's Day.  Highs today will get into the 20s, a decided improvement over Sunday afternoon But wintry weather is going to stay with us for awhile yet.

SNOW INCOMING

Another round of snow is incoming for Vermont and surrounding areas, mostly tonight and early tomorrow.  

Next up, a moderate-sized snowfall mostly tonight, and
focusing on northern Vermont, along with
northern and central New York and northern 
New Hampshire. In Vermont, 4 to 6 inches is likely
along and north of Route 2, with slightly 
lesser amounts to the south. 

It's another Alberta Clipper, one of those usually weak systems that come in from the west or northwest and scoot through with little fanfare.

This one has some real oomph to it, though.  

A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Vermont, generally along and north of Route 2.  Those winter weather advisories also extend across northern and central New York, northern New Hampshire, parts of Maine, and in most of Wisconsin and Michigan.

So holiday travel is getting screwed up in a several areas. 

Here in Vermont, broad the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us most places along and north of Route 2 should see four to six inches of new snow out of this system.  Some isolated areas in the northern mountains could see eight inches. 

Areas between Route 2 and Route 4 look to be in the three to five inch range, and places south of Route 4 are pegged for one to three inches. 

With the snow coming, you might want to think about your Christmas travel plans a bit.

Travel today should be fine. The snow should start between 6 and 8 this evening in northern New York, and reach western Vermont between 8 and 10 p.m. says the National Weather Service. So if you get to where you're going by then, you're golden.

The snow will probably end by midmorning tomorrow in most places. So if you're traveling anywhere on Christmas Eve, try to postpone the trip until late morning or afternoon. 

After that, we should have no snow, ice, schmutz or anything else clogging up Vermont roads from Tuesday afternoon through at least Friday, and probably beyond. But that doesn't end completely end the weirdness

INVERSION/POLLUTION

Starting on Christmas Day and lasting through probably until at least Friday, it is going to get a little odd in Vermont. And in some places, maybe a bit hard to breathe.

I should explain: 

A strong high pressure system is forecast to park itself basically overhead through at least Friday.  The atmosphere overall is expected to warm a great deal.  Except right down near the surface. This time of year, the sun angle is so low it can't heat us up much

If it wants to get warm, we need a south wind to carry the warm air into places we live.  But with light winds under this high pressure, the snow on the ground will just keep the air near the surface refrigerated.

 This creates what is known as a temperature inversion.  Usually, the air is warmest in the lowest elevations and gets progressively colder as you go up hill. 

In an inversion, it's cold in the valleys and warm in the mountains, up a few thousand feet. 

The result will be some warm, even thawing temperatures up at the ski areas, while valleys are stuck in the teens at night, 20s during the day.  There might even be a low overcast, so the valleys are dreary while the mountains are in bright sun.

Inversions happen occasionally in Vermont this time of year, but this one will be more intense and longer lasting than usual. That's a problem.

A problem, because the inversion acts like a lid, trapping pollutants in the valleys.  So all the cars, exhaust for furnaces, wood smoke, etc will get trapped in valleys, possibly causing enough pollution to create issues in people with lung conditions. 

This could happen in the upcoming week in any Vermont valley. But the topography around Rutland is particularly prone to setting up these pollution issues, so that's the region we'll want to watch carefully for pollution this week. 

We're hoping the inversion finally breaks toward the weekend.  

Why Didn't The World Cool Down As Expected In 2024?

Earth was supposed a tiny bit cooler in 2024 than in
2023 but that ain't happening. Scientists are pondering
an apparent recent acceleration in the pace of
global warming. 

 Roughly at this time last year, I told you that 2023 would be the world's warmest year on record, due in large part to climate change, but 2024 would probably be slightly cooler.  

So much for that idea.

The final figures aren't in yet, but 2024 will certainly beat out last year as the world's warmest.

The Washington Post took a deep dive into what happened, and some scientists are worried we might have entered new, worse phase of climate change. But opinions are sharply divided on this idea.

 This year was supposed to be a tiny bit cooler than 2023 overall because an El Nino atmospheric and oceanic pattern ended. 

El Nino tends to boost global temperatures, so that El Nino teamed up with climate change to make 2023 especially torrid. 

One major factor is the oceans, which pretty much didn't cool off at all in 2024. That helped impart added warmth on land,

Scientists don't know whether this warmer ocean system is just a fluke that will correct itself in a few month or whether it's a still-poorly understood phenomenon that would make climate change even worse that thought.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told WaPo that it's possible ocean temperatures could still crater in the next few months, and this whole year of hot oceans is just some weird natural variability. But, he added, "I think signs are certainly pointing toward fairly persistent warmth."

More often than not, the globe heating El Nino is followed by the world-cooling La Nina, an oceanic and atmospheric patter roughly the opposite of El Nino. But the expected La Nina phase, which should have been in full force by now, has sputtered.

Again, we don't know whether that's because of natural cycle or whether climate change is messing things up. 

Per WaPo:

"Whatever the mix of factors or how long they last, scientists say they lack of a clear explanation lowers their confidence that climate change will follow the established pattern that models have predicted.

'We can't real out eventually much bigger changes,' Hausfather said. 'The more we research climate change, the more we learn that uncertainty isn't our friend.'"

There's one major additional factor explaining the unexpected heat of 2023 and 2024 that scientists are paying close attention to: Clouds, Or rather the lack thereof .

New scientific research reveals that Earth has gotten less cloudy than it once was. Especially in the last couple of years. Fewer clouds, more solar radiation, more heat for you and me.

Once again, this question arises: Is the lack of cloud cover just a weird blip that will go away? Or is climate change evaporating some of Earth's clouds. If it's the latter, then climate change will continue to accelerate faster than most scientists expect. 

Or there's a third possibility, as NBC News reports. New pollution control in recent years means far less sulfur emissions from ships. Scientists has previous said that these new pollution controls did reduce particles in the atmosphere, which had a very minor warming effect the atmosphere. 

Now, says NBC and numerous other news outlets,  the lack of sulfur particles in the atmosphere is reducing the amount of low cloud cover over the oceans. That cloud cover help prevent the oceans from warming too fast. With some of those clouds gone, perhaps the ocean is now able to heat up faster. 

Which in turn could produce warmer, and sometimes wetter air currents making landfall on continents and extending well inland. 

In any event, the expected cooling after El Nino ended hasn't materialized. If that trend continues, the next El Nino could really make the hot global years of 2023 and 2024 seem downright chilly.

 

Upside Down Times: Canada Brings Pollution, Rust Belt Cleans Us Out

Smoke in the atmosphere made the sun cast a brassy hue
on Fairfield Swamp, Vermont Friday evening. 

 Back in the day of the dinosaurs - I'm talking 1960s and 1970s - a summer southwest wind would bring in warm air, sure, but also pollution from all those cars, industrial plants, manufacturing and what not further down the East Coast and from the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 

You know, rust belt cities like Cleveland, Gary, Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh. 

We'd always look forward to those cold fronts from Canada that would sweep in, bringing fresh, pristine air from the Great White North. 

Pollution controls and climate change has turned those "good old days" backwards.

Now, in the summer, what used to be fresh Canadian north winds often bring wildfire smoke and air pollution alerts to us in Vermont. 

And thanks to the Clean Air Act, the air coming from the former Rust Belt and the East Coast is fresher than it used to be.

Today is a classic example of that backward pollution scenario.

A light northerly flow brought smoke and haze from Canada over the past few days. An air quality alert went into effect. 

Now, a south wind ahead of low pressure over the Great Lakes has started to drive the smoke back north, out of our hair.  It's still pretty hazy this morning, as it will take time for some of this smoke and haze to depart.

 But visibility should get a little better this afternoon. The air will be a bit easier to breathe, too. The air won't necessarily become crystal clear, but it is improving.  

The air quality alert that was in effect yesterday and last night has been allowed to expire. 

 With the better air quality comes the risk of showers, though the further east you go today and tomorrow,  the less chance you get.  The storm system in the Great Lakes, as we've advertised for days, is just barely crawling eastward, so it will take time to make it into New England. 

So, the rest of the weekend just has a chance of some showers, but it'll be dry most of the time. In eastern Vermont, it might not rain at all. Or if it does, it won't amount to much.

The rain will arrive in earnest Sunday night and especially Monday, when it could come down fairly hard in spot. The best guess is many of us will see a solid inch of rain. 

We're still looking at the strongest push of cool air since June by Tuesday on renewed north winds. I don't know yet if those north winds from Canada will blow more smoke into the Green Mountain State, or whether the cool push of air will tap into a cleaner source of air from elsewhere in the Great White North. 

Dense Northern Vermont Smoke Ending; Otherwise Little Change In Soggy Forecast. Floods Next?

Motorists make their way through thick haze along
Interstate 89 in Georgia Sunday. Wildfire smoke
from Canada created an air pollution problem in
northern Vermont. 

 The dense smoke from yesterday lingered overnight in northern Vermont, causing dangerously toxic air all night, but relief was beginning to settle in this morning. 

As of early this morning, most of the bad air had been flushed out, except in the Champlain Valley, where it seemed to be temporarily trapped. 

The bad Champlain Valley air should gradually improve over the course of this morning. Then we go back to our regularly scheduled programming of watching for possible flash floods here and there in Vermont all week. 

Let's get into the deets, first with the remarkable amount of wildfire smoke on Sunday

VERMONT POLLUTION EXTREME

To get you oriented, here's the air quality scale:

0-50 - Air is clean, 51-100, it's' moderate, 101-150 it's unhealthy for sensitive people, 151 to 200, it's unhealthy for all of us, and 201 and above it's very unhealthy for everyone and we should really just stay indoors. 

I saw reports from people last night saying their air pollution apps were registering as high as 269, so that's bad. Official readings from the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation at around 7:30 p.m. Sunday evening had the index at 215 in Burlington and 210 in Underhill.

Northern Vermont was truly one of the most polluted areas on Earth Sunday afternoon and night. 

Southern Vermont was never really affected by this. The air quality index at Bennington hovered at around 20 all day Sunday which is about as clean as you can get. 

Satellite photo taken around 5:30 p.m. Sunday shows
thick smoke over northern Vermont, but perfectly clean
air in far southern counties. It also shows a 
thunderstorm over Addison County, and more storms
over southwestern Vermont. 

Early this morning, east and southeasterly winds began to push the bad air northwestward out of the region. 

It looks like a temperature inversion was keeping the smoke in the Champlain Valley early this morning, though. The cleansing south winds couldn't yet dig down into the valley floor.  I notices the air quality in Underhill was quickly crashing early this morning.  It went from a kind of icky 132 at 6 a.m. to a very nice 40 by 6:30 a.m. 

Meanwhile, during that time, Burlington stayed stuck between 195 and 200. From my perch on a hill in St. Albans, the sky overhead was a nice blue, but there was still a bit of haze around my house, and you can see a thick brown cloud still covering the valley below. 

The temperature inversion should break up later this morning, and the Champlain Valley will clean out. That's not to say another smoke attack won't happen again this summer. Fires are still certainly burning in Canada, so there's nothing to stop the smoke from returning to Vermont if the wind is right. 

FLOOD RISK LOOMS

As we've been talking about for days now, a risk of local flash floods should be with us all week.  Already, a flash flood warning was issued for part of northwestern New Hampshire near the Vermont border last evening, and another flash flood warning was up for areas near Mount Washington, New Hampshire earlier this morning. 

That risk will spread into Vermont, probably starting today and lasting all week. 

At any given time, only small sections of Vermont will be under flash flood warnings. You'll probably see an alert from time to time covering just certain sections of Vermont counties, warning of possible flash flooding. 

During much of the time this week, there won't be any warnings at all, since these local floods will have short fuses.

It'll rain torrentially on a particular set of mountains, a big gush of water will come down the slopes from all the rain, the storm will dissipate and the water will quickly recede, having already done its damage.

Any flash floods we might get would probably be pretty small in area, but are quite dangerous. As the name suggests, they  happen in a flash. There's not much time to get out of the way.  If you're in a flood-prone area, this is a great week to stay on your toes and move quickly if you get a warning. 

If you're driving in a downpour and see a little water gathering on the road ahead, don't chance it.  Even if the water in that instance isn't enough to carry your vehicle away, the water could rise dramatically in seconds while you're trying to splash through it.  Not a good scenario. 

All of Vermont will get a lot of rain this week, but large sections of the state will escape any real flooding. It will be hit and miss.  If there's any flash flooding, it's most likely in the afternoons and evenings each day through the week. 

As expected, there wasn't much rain around Vermont this morning.  But as a disturbance riding through the big upper level low that's stuck to our west comes through, showers and storms will blossom this afternoon. 

They'll wane somewhat tonight, and redevelop Tuesday.  Tomorrow to me looks even potentially wetter than today.  Wednesday looks awfully soggy, too.  It won't rain all the time, but occasionally, it will really come down. 

The risk of flash flooding will grow as the week goes on as soil conditions get wetter and wetter from all the downpours.  I'm guessing that since most of the slow moving scattered showers and storms yesterday were in southern Vermont, that's the part of the state that seems most likely to have issues here and there today with high water. 

Where and whether any problems arise from tomorrow onward is anybody's guess

Northern Vermont Suffers Arguably Worst Wildfire Smoke Pollution In Memory

Smoke and haze reduced visibility on the Route 2 
causeway between Milton and South Hero,
Vermont Sunday afternoon. 

 A concentrated band of smoke from Canadian wildfires really settled into northern Vermont, along with parts of New Hampshire, Maine and Quebec today.  

The air quality index in Burlington rose to 195, which is considered unhealthy, and almost at the level of "very unhealthy."  Visibility dwindled to as little as two miles or less in the thick haze.

This all was on par with or probably worse than the two other great smoke outs in recent memory, in May, 2010 and July, 2002.  This was certainly worse than the June 6 smoke attack we endured. 

If you live in northern Vermont, I'd suggest staying indoors for the rest of the night. If you have air conditioning, all the better 

Far southern Vermont must have wondered what the fuss was about. Air quality there was just fine all day Sunday. 

A weak, barely perceptible cold front stalled across central Vermont today. The front acted as a sort of wall, damming up wildfire smoke to its north, while preventing it from seeping south much 

Scattered, torrential thunderstorms developed south of this front. A few were making it past the "wall" this evening, but that won't change the smoke conditions much.

We're stuck with the smoke tonight. But early tomorrow, barely noticeable winds first from the east, then southeast, will push the haze and pollution northwestward into southwestern Quebec and Ontario. Air quality is forecast to improve greatly during the day. 

Then, with that humid air flow in place, we'll see a serious uptick in showers and storms, some with torrential rain. As I mentioned this morning, we'll have to watch for local areas of flash flooding tomorrow and the rest of the week under any slow moving or persistent thunderstorms. 

I'll have more on this, and updates in Monday mornings' post. 

Sunday Wildfire Smoke Attack In Vermont To Partly Interrupt Very Wet Spell

The brassy hue of the sun cutting through the humidity
and fog at around 9:30 a.m. this morning was a 
signal that wildfire smoke from Canada was returning.

 We had our first really rainy day in what will be a long stretch of wet weather in at least part of Vermont today. 

The good news is for northern Vermont especially, today will be quite a bit drier than Saturday, as we're sort of between systems. 

The bad news is the very weak cold front that will at least partly interrupt the wet weather is bringing a boatload of smoke from Canadian wildfires into the northern half of Vermont today.  

This might well be the thickest smoke of the summer so far. Even worse than the thick smoke on June 6.  

An air quality alert is in effect for the northern half of Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Meanwhile, some flood threats will linger all week in the Green Mountain State.

So let's get into the details of what happened, and what's going to happen

SATURDAY RAINS

The heaviest rains in Vermont Saturday seemed to focus on a stripe of northwestern Vermont from Burlington, north, contained in an area sandwiched between Interstate 89 and the spine of the Green Mountains. 

The most rain I saw from yesterday was 2.18 inches in Underhill. There were several reports of rainfall of well over an inch. 

Luckily, this same region will be among the drier spots today, with just low chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. More on that next when we get into today's weather. 

TODAY: SMOKE AND SCATTERED DOWNPOURS

It was still oppressively humid early this morning across all of Vermont, but at least the air quality was terrific. 

That won't last. 

A weak cold front had just crossed the International Border this morning and will sink slowly into Vermont while dissipating. 

This will make the humidity go down a little, which will be a nice break.  It will also suppress thunderstorms and downpours across the north.  There still might be some, but they will be pretty few and far between north of Route 2.

Southern Vermont has a better chance of thunderstorms today. Since the air there will still be quite humid and any thunderstorms that form will move ever so slowly, there is a risk of some isolated instances of flash flooding. So we're not completely out of the woods.

Then there's the smoke. It'll be something of a glancing blow, but it will still create a lot of haze across the north. The closer you are to Canada, the worse it will be. Air quality alerts are also in effect for much of New Hampshire and Maine, and of course southern Quebec. 

 I wouldn't overexert too much outside today in northern areas. Between the moderately high humidity and the smoke, it ain't good for you. 

At least the worst of the smoke will have cleared out by tomorrow. But the rains return. And stick around. 

MONDAY

The number of showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to ramp up late tonight and early Monday, then really blossom in the afternoon. Virtually all of us will get rain. As usual, in most place, the amount of rain that falls will be perfectly manageable. But again, if storms go over the same spot over and over again, there could be an isolated flash flood threat.

The thunderstorms in general won't be severe, but there might be one or two instances of microbursts, which can really cause a lot of wind damage in very small areas. 

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The weather pattern stays stalled, so it'll be daily round of torrential showers and thunderstorms amid humid air. This far in advance, you can't say precisely who will get the heaviest rain and the highest flash flood potential. 

In general, the most dangerous downpours will hit in the afternoons and evenings. As the soils get wetter and wetter through the week, the chances of flooding also creep up. Nobody is yet talking about widespread river flooding, since they're starting at pretty low levels now.

The problem is the torrents of water that can come roaring of steep slopes if the rain is especially torrential and persistent in any particular spot.  That's your local flash flood threat all week. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont and surrounding areas under at least some chance, albeit somewhat low chance, of flash flooding every day today through Thursday. It's quite unusual to have that threat in effect five days in a row. 

This state of affairs might even go beyond Thursday. Tropical Storm Cindy, or at least its remains, seems like it wants to head out of the tropics and make a beeline toward Nova Scotia toward Friday and Saturday. That would prevent the storminess over us from departing to our east, or at least delay its departure. 

And the weather pattern seems like it wants to continue more of the same into the opening days of July, but that of course is uncertain for now. 

Atlantic Ocean Is Off The Charts Warm: Not The Apocalypse, But Something To Worry About

Chart shows how warm the North Atlantic is. All the blue
squiggles are average water temperatures over the
past years since 1982. Red line is this year. 

 For at least a month or two now, scientists have been astonished by how warm much of the Atlantic Ocean is. 

As of last Wednesday, the average temperature of the North Atlantic (everything north of the Equator) was 73 degrees. The average temperature in the ocean over the past three decades was 71 degrees. 

Two degrees doesn't sound like much of a difference, but in terms of oceans this is huge. It represents an enormous amount of potential energy that can produce larger, wetter storms, heat waves, dangerously high humidity or other weather extremes. 

The Atlantic Ocean is so warm that something very rare is happening. The area of the eastern Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Africa, is a zone where some of the strongest hurricanes get their start. This pretty much always waits until August and September when that stretch of ocean finally becomes warm enough to develop wannabe hurricanes. 

In the past few days, a disturbance has emerged into the ocean off the west coast of Africa. The ocean water is way warmer than it should be in June. It's more typical of September. The National Hurricane Center says the system is almost certain to become a tropical storm or hurricane this week.  

It's still unknown whether this future tropical storm will affect the Caribbean islands and eventually the United States, or just go out to sea and miss everything. 

A hurricane originating in this areas is almost unheard of.   You do occasionally get tropical storms and hurricanes in June, but they almost always form in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, or sometimes just off the southeastern United States coast.  

The potential hurricane is just one symptom of how off-kilter the Atlantic Ocean is right now. 

IN PERSPECTIVE

I've heard a variety of way-too-alarmist reactions to this hot Atlantic Ocean water. "It's a tipping point! It'll make the world go into an extreme climate calamity!  

It's true that climate change is contributing to the Atlantic Ocean's newfound heat. All of the world's other oceans are warming as well. 

What seems to be going on is a whole bunch of influences are conspiring to bring the Atlantic Ocean to a figurative boiling point.  Besides climate change, there's the arrival of El Nino.

 Michael Mann, a scientist who is never shy about sounding the alarm about climate change, is urging calm with the latest news about warming oceans.  He says climate change is one factor raising ocean temperatures, but there are plenty more influences, such as the recent onset of El Nino.

"The warming is steady & that's bad enough. Hyping the warming as we had into an El Nino event is as bad as deniers who hyped the cooling their the '00s and early '10s from extended La Nina events," Mann tweeted

Other factors contributing to the Atlantic Ocean's recent quick heat up include below normal levels of dust from the Sahara Desert blowing out over the ocean. 

That dust regularly blows westward off the African continent out over the oceans, where it blocks a bit of sunlight. That reduction in solar energy helps keep the water temperature in check. But with so little dust this year. the sun can blast down on the ocean, rapidly heating it. 

Another influence might be new regulations requiring ships to burn cleaner fuel.  That has led to a sharp decrease in sulfur dioxide emissions. Like African dust, the sulfur pollution dims the sun. With the drop in pollution from ships, the sun over the Atlantic shines ever brighter. 

There's yet one more influence: The Azores High.  According to Vox:

"The Azores High is a semi-permanent region of high atmospheric pressure that sits over the North Atlantic. This creates a sinking column of air that generates trade winds blowing east to west over the water. Wind wind moves over water it leads to more evaporation which cools the surface of the water, similar to how a breeze can cool your skin when  you sweat."

Lately, the Azores High has been weak, so the trade winds have been weak. Which means that cooling influence is diminished. 

With all these things going on, you can see how the study of climate change can be almost impossibly complex.  Dozens of factors work in concert with, or against climate change, to make predicting just how it will play out a challenge to say the least.  

Given all these factors, I doubt the Atlantic Ocean will keep heating up forever without pause. More African dust, an eventual end to El Nino might well cause a temporary Atlantic ocean water cooling. The operative word here being temporary. 

Climate change will inexorably make ocean temperatures rise, if it fits and starts. The current warmth in the Atlantic Ocean would be impossible without climate change, even if everything else cooperated to cause a spike in water temperatures. 

The current situation in the Atlantic Ocean is probably a foretaste of an ugly future.