Strange, Extreme Temperature Inversion To Finally Break, Then Freezing Rain, Then Rain To Mar Runup To New Year

Freezing fog under an inversion broke up Thursday 
morning, leaving frosted trees glistening above an
old farmstead near Wallingford, Vermont. 

 Though it might not seem it to the casual observer, the weather has been really strange from Christmas Day to this morning in and near Vermont. 

As previously forecast, an extreme temperature inversion has taken hold.  To remind you, an inversion is when it's warmer aloft or up in the mountains than in the valleys. Usually the opposite is true. 

Inversions are more common in the winter around here, but this one is really something. 

Atop the high peaks of the Adirondacks Thursday morning, like the summit of Mount Marcy, temperatures remained in the mid 30s, even at night as temperatures in the coldest valleys got down to below zero readings. That's about as extreme a temperature inversion as I've ever seen.

The inversion has trapped the steam coming off unfrozen Lake Champlain, creating a widespread blank of low clouds and fog to spread out from the lake and cover most of western Vermont and nearby New York, both yesterday morning and this morning. 

With light north winds, I noticed the clouds were never able to break up Thursday downwind of Lake Champlain. Much of Addison County, southern Chittenden and northern Rutland counties remained socked in with clouds, even as most other areas cleared.

Where the low clouds and fog did break up in those chilly valleys, the freezing fog left behind a beautiful frost on all the trees, lit up by the low angle late December sun. It was an example of how inversions can be stunningly beautiful.

Freezing fog early Thursday left these trees in 
West Rutland, Vermont beautifully frosted over. 

This morning, temperatures in the inversion remain topsy turvy to the extreme. Under clear skies early this morning, it was 9 below at Lake Eden, Vermont and minus 7 in Morrisville. The low clouds and fog from Lake Champlain kept Burlington a little warmer at 14. 

Meanwhile, it was still in the low 30s in the high peaks of the Adirondacks. The summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, a place you usually find extreme cold, it was a balmy 28 degrees a little before dawn.  

Freezing fog has been an issue in spots and night, but it's been beautifying our surroundings during the day, especially where sun breaks out. The sun glistening on trees frosted over by the fog is just stunningly beautiful, so enjoy that if you see it. 

FREEZING RAIN

The inversion will gradually fade as the strong high pressure system finally exits in favor of that storminess we've been watching approach. 

Still, the inversion's fading glory will cause new problems.  That warm air aloft will continue flowing in, and will try to work its way down into the valleys. But only grudgingly.  An initial wave of precipitation is forecast to push northward into New England  Saturday while fading as it encounters dry air over Vermont and New Hampshire. 

What does arrive will start out as plain rain as it falls through the mild air a few thousand feet overhead. But it will probably freeze on impact as it lands in the cold air and cold ground down southern Vermont valleys. 

A winter weather advisory is up for the southernmost two counties of Vermont and adjacent areas of New York Saturday as that freezing rain arrives.  It won't come down hard, so there will be no issues  with trees and power lines, but there will be icy problems on the highways. 

There's some question as to  how far north Saturday's freezing rain will get, but a little dab will do ya - Even 0.01 inches of freezing rain is more than enough to make roads and sidewalks dangerous. I have a feeling those Saturday winter weather advisories might get extended at least into central Vermont.  

Not sure yet, but it's something to watch.

A more substantial surge of warmth and moisture will push northward Sunday, so we get more rain. Some valleys in eastern Vermont might not be above freezing yet even on Sunday, which opens the door for more freezing rain. 

In western Vermont, temperatures are forecast to be above freezing when the rain arrives, but that might not be much help. 

The air temperature might be in the mid and upper 30s while it's raining Sunday, but the ground will not have recovered from the cold valley temperatures we've had under this week's inversion.

 Pavement, concrete, etc. will still be below freezing, so that rain Sunday would probably freeze on roads, sidewalks and driveways. Especially if they haven't really been hit with the state and municipal salt shakers that I expect will be out. 

Eventually, it will warm up everywhere in Vermont by Monday for just plain rain. 

Final Word On Vermont Snow, Now For A Quiet Christmas Aside From Bit Of Unpleasant Evening Freezing Drizzle

Map from National Weather Service in South Burlington
depicts how much snow fell in last nights small storm
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see,

 The snow ended earlier today as expected, leaving us with a dull Christmas Eve forecast and a little fog. 

Don't worry about the fog, at least in terms of what Santa's doing. Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer managed to find his way through fog and mist way worse than this .

However, a bit of freezing drizzle is coming out of that fog across parts of northern and central Vermont this evening, so that could create some unexpected slick spots on the roads this evening,

There's a few flurries mixed in, too.

Do be careful out there! 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has given us its full list of snowfall reports.  Aside from under-performing in Chittenden County, the forecast proved pretty accurate.

The big winner with this storm was Potsdam, in northwestern New York, with a foot of snow. Nearby Hannawa had 10 inches. 

In Vermont, the snow sweepstakes winner was a tie between Lincoln and Newport Center, with eight inches. Charlotte came in the losing end, with just an inch of fresh powder. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington only managed 1.5 inches of new snow.

For comparison's sake, this is the forecast from 
a few hours before the snow actually started.
Pretty close to reality, actually

One aspect of the forecast for Christmas Day through Friday is whether we'll see any sun. Strong high pressure nearby favors sun. But that strong temperature inversion we've been talking about might trap in a layer of low clouds. 

I'm still thinking that many areas might see a low overcast through the week, but that's not guaranteed. If it does clear out at night, temperatures Christmas night and the next night could get near zero.

Mountaintops still look like they'll poke up above any low overcast. Due to the inversion, mountain tops might well be warmer than the valleys during the next few days. 

We're still watching for the risk of some air pollution trapped beneath the inversion, too. We'll update you if there's any air quality alerts.

Eventually, that stalled, strong high pressure will move off to the east, opening us for storminess toward Sunday. It's still early to say what will happen with that, but odds at the moment favor rain to dampen the enthusiasm of winter sports fans. 

But it's still just the beginning of winter. Even if some rain sets back our snow fun, there's plenty of opportunity for the white fluff to come back in January, February and March. And, ugh. Maybe April 

Snow To End Later This Morning; Clouds, Chill To Linger

Managed to shovel part of my driveway in St. Albans,
Vermont before work this morning.  Will finish
after short work day this afternoon. Easy job, as
it's only two or three inches and it's not wet or heavy.

As of 8 a.m., this Christmas Eve morning, we're almost done with our latest bout of snow, but road conditions remain tricky, as you can imagine with snow still falling.  

Radar images at 8 a.m. showed the back edge of the snow just crossing the Canadian border into northwest Vermont, so most places will be done with this by midmorning. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington will probably drop the winter weather advisories and winter storm warning, also by midmorning. 

Best early guess is most of the forecasted amounts of snow will come to fruition, except maybe in the Champlain Valley  

Both upper level winds from the southwest and strong surface winds from the south up the Champlain Valley cut back on snow accumulations. 

The southwest winds a few thousand feet up meant the Adirondacks of New York blocked some of the moisture from getting into the valley. 

Winds on the ground gusted to around 40 mph at times, stronger than forecast. That created a lot of blowing snow, but messing up whatever snow was falling. The blasting gusts smashed snowflakes apart, causing smaller fragments to all, which don't accumulate as readily as regular, intact snowflakes.

The winds were diminishing as we approached sunrise, so most of the snow in the Champlain Valley will have fallen at the end of the storm.  Still, I imagine places like Burlington and Middlebury might end up with only one to three inches of new snow.

Eh, those places got some Lake Champlain-effect snow Saturday, so they're OK. 

 It was hard to measure how much snow I got at my place in St. Albans, Vermont because the snow blew around quite a bit overnight. Good measuring spots ranged rom 2.5 to 3.2 inches of new snow around my yard.

Northern New York appears to be the big winner of this system, with a couple of 7 inch reports coming in from there. So far reports from Vermont are sparse. Preliminary reports include 6.7 inches in Albany, Vermont, 6.5 inches in Morrisville 5.3 inches in Cabot and 4.1 in Topsham.  

OUTLOOK

As expected, road conditions were iffy for what amounted to this morning's commute. Traffic cams showed snow or slush covered highways statewide.  

Screen grab of traffic cam on Interstate 89 near Exit 16 in
Colchester shows not great conditions. If you have
holiday travel today, probably best to postpone
the start until late morning or afternoon. 

This should improve pretty fast later this morning and afternoon.  Temperatures should either stay in or get into the 20s by this afternoon, so not terrible.

Although strong high pressure is moving in, we might not see a huge amount of sun during the day, or starlight at night, especially in the valleys. 

That inversion we've been talking about will set up.  An inversion is when it's warmer a few thousand feet overhead than it is down in the valleys, which is the opposite of how the atmosphere is usually set up. 

An inversion traps a layer of moisture a couple thousand feet up, which means you often see a low, dull overcast in the valleys with this type of thing. Especially this time of year, when the sun's low angle isn't powerful enough to mix the atmosphere and clear out the clouds. 

Pollution can get trapped beneath the inversion layer, too, so we'll have to watch and see what air quality does Christmas through Friday. 

If you venture up to the ski resorts, you might be treated to an undercast, rather than an overcast. That cloud layer could end up below you, so if you're up on the mountain, you might be in bright sunshine while a layer of clouds spread out below you. 

After today, the next chance of any kind of storminess looks like it might come along about Sunday. By then it will be warmer, so at this point, it looks like that stuff might end up being rain, with possible areas of freezing rain.

Ah, yes, the joys of a Vermont winter!

Vermont Record Above Zero Streak Snaps; Snow Forecast Increases, And Air Pollution Later In Week?

Burlington, Vermont got below zero overnight, ending
a record 663 days of continuously above zero readings.

The record streak of continuously above zero temperatures in Burlington, Vermont finally ended Sunday night. 

Before midnight, it got below zero, ending a 663-day streak that started on February 26 2023.  The previous record longest streak was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

It was obviously cold everywhere around the region.  The usual icebox, Saranac Lake, New York, got down to at least 22 below early today. Lake Eden, Vermont was at 17 below.  Morrisville and Montpelier shared a 10 below reading. 

High temperatures Sunday never got above the single numbers in many areas, setting the stage for the morning's subzero cold.

It was a worrisome night for homeless people in the area, and there are unfortunately many in Vermont. There was no room left at shelters and hotels around the state, according to advocates for the homeless, so they resorted to handing out sleeping bags and other winter gear and hoped for the best. 

A warming center was set up in one Burlington building last night, and volunteers drove around to make unhoused people aware.  I know some people look with distain on the homeless, as some of them are substance abusers and a few of them commit crimes. But as exasperating as shoplifting can get, those who do that sort of thing don't deserve the death penalty by freezing.

If you don't like such frigid weather, you're in luck. This will be the last time it gets below zero at least until we get past New Year's Day.  Highs today will get into the 20s, a decided improvement over Sunday afternoon But wintry weather is going to stay with us for awhile yet.

SNOW INCOMING

Another round of snow is incoming for Vermont and surrounding areas, mostly tonight and early tomorrow.  

Next up, a moderate-sized snowfall mostly tonight, and
focusing on northern Vermont, along with
northern and central New York and northern 
New Hampshire. In Vermont, 4 to 6 inches is likely
along and north of Route 2, with slightly 
lesser amounts to the south. 

It's another Alberta Clipper, one of those usually weak systems that come in from the west or northwest and scoot through with little fanfare.

This one has some real oomph to it, though.  

A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Vermont, generally along and north of Route 2.  Those winter weather advisories also extend across northern and central New York, northern New Hampshire, parts of Maine, and in most of Wisconsin and Michigan.

So holiday travel is getting screwed up in a several areas. 

Here in Vermont, broad the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us most places along and north of Route 2 should see four to six inches of new snow out of this system.  Some isolated areas in the northern mountains could see eight inches. 

Areas between Route 2 and Route 4 look to be in the three to five inch range, and places south of Route 4 are pegged for one to three inches. 

With the snow coming, you might want to think about your Christmas travel plans a bit.

Travel today should be fine. The snow should start between 6 and 8 this evening in northern New York, and reach western Vermont between 8 and 10 p.m. says the National Weather Service. So if you get to where you're going by then, you're golden.

The snow will probably end by midmorning tomorrow in most places. So if you're traveling anywhere on Christmas Eve, try to postpone the trip until late morning or afternoon. 

After that, we should have no snow, ice, schmutz or anything else clogging up Vermont roads from Tuesday afternoon through at least Friday, and probably beyond. But that doesn't end completely end the weirdness

INVERSION/POLLUTION

Starting on Christmas Day and lasting through probably until at least Friday, it is going to get a little odd in Vermont. And in some places, maybe a bit hard to breathe.

I should explain: 

A strong high pressure system is forecast to park itself basically overhead through at least Friday.  The atmosphere overall is expected to warm a great deal.  Except right down near the surface. This time of year, the sun angle is so low it can't heat us up much

If it wants to get warm, we need a south wind to carry the warm air into places we live.  But with light winds under this high pressure, the snow on the ground will just keep the air near the surface refrigerated.

 This creates what is known as a temperature inversion.  Usually, the air is warmest in the lowest elevations and gets progressively colder as you go up hill. 

In an inversion, it's cold in the valleys and warm in the mountains, up a few thousand feet. 

The result will be some warm, even thawing temperatures up at the ski areas, while valleys are stuck in the teens at night, 20s during the day.  There might even be a low overcast, so the valleys are dreary while the mountains are in bright sun.

Inversions happen occasionally in Vermont this time of year, but this one will be more intense and longer lasting than usual. That's a problem.

A problem, because the inversion acts like a lid, trapping pollutants in the valleys.  So all the cars, exhaust for furnaces, wood smoke, etc will get trapped in valleys, possibly causing enough pollution to create issues in people with lung conditions. 

This could happen in the upcoming week in any Vermont valley. But the topography around Rutland is particularly prone to setting up these pollution issues, so that's the region we'll want to watch carefully for pollution this week. 

We're hoping the inversion finally breaks toward the weekend.  

New Year's Eve Is Here: What To Expect In Vermont Tonight, Tomorrow

Yet another day of thick overcast kept Vermont dreary on
New Year's Eve, but at least there's no ice or snow to mess
up the roads tonight. The low clouds might interfere a 
bit with midnight fireworks shows, though. 

 It's been a day of low, dark overcast as a temperature inversion - common for this time of year - has kept clouds trapped below a lid of slightly warmer air several thousand feet above us. 

This continues our long streak of bleak days, but at least we don't have the dense fog that pestered us Vermonters for days this past week.  

The weather forecast continues to look pretty safe, though not gorgeous for any outdoor New Year's Eve festivities tonight. 

A few snowflakes might flutter down from time to time this evening, but they won't amount to anything.  Roads should be in good shape, with no surprise icing like we saw Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures under the thick clouds held in the 20s all day today, as they prevented any weak December sun from boosting readings just a bit.

Those same thick clouds will keep the temperature from falling much tonight.  It should be somewhere between 18 and 25 degrees at midnight, which isn't bad for the season.

We do see one problem with tonight's weather: Fireworks and the low clouds. The overcast is so low that it might interfere with viewing midnight fireworks. Especially in towns that launch them from relatively high elevations, or if they involve fireworks that go way up into the sky before exploding. 

Another problem is the same temperature inversion that's keeping the low clouds locked in place will probably also trap smoke from the fireworks beneath the clouds. The smoke won't disperse all that easily, so we could see some local air pollution problems with this. 

New Year's Day still looks pretty good, fingers crossed. A very weak cold front early in the day should touch off more snow flurries, especially in the mountains and along the south and east shores of Lake Champlain early in the day. 

The cold front doesn't really have much in the way of cold air behind it, but it does have drier air. That could set us up for some - YAYYY! --- sun in the afternoon. No promises, the inversion could hold, but let's be optimistic. If the sun does come out, that would be the first time most of us have seen any sun since Tuesday. 

Temperatures will still be OK tomorrow with highs in the 25-32 range for most of us. 

Happy New Year, everyone!

This Isn't Exactly Turning Out To Be The Sunniest September

Skies cleared suddenly over Richmond, Vermont Wednesday
after a temperature inversion suddenly lifted. It was almost 
completely overcast ten minutes before this photo was
taken. More clouds began arriving a couple hours later
as the next system kept our rather cloudy 
September going. 

 Septembers in Vermont often bring us long strings of sunny, mellow pleasant days.

This hasn't been one of those Septembers, as you probably guessed. 

We've certainly had nice, bright days this month, but we've also endured strings of cloudy, sometimes downright gloomy days. 

It's just the luck of the draw, I guess. We've been victimized by stalled or nearly stalled weather fronts at least three times this month.  Frequent storm systems have also been able to take advantage of plenty of moisture working its way up toward us from the Gulf of Mexico. 

I guess you can find the beauty in rain, overcast and fog. The spookiness and darkness of it all is pretty interesting, in my view. I put a video up, which you can see at the bottom of the post, that sort of embraced the rain, fog and dreariness we dealt with this past Sunday and Monday. 

Today dawned with another round of rain and scattered downpours. Though we'll see glimpses of sun today, a cold front will also bring scattered showers and plunging temperatures this afternoon.  

Some sun will break through Friday, but we'll have quite a chill in the air. We'll actually have a rather sunny, though not completely clear weekend before another long stretch of cloudiness takes over.

I don't really have statistics on how this September ranks in terms of cloudiness compared to other Septembers.  How do you define a cloudy day, anyway? Does it have to feature a solid overcast, or could you get an hour or two with a few small breaks in the clouds? Is a high, thin overcast in which the sun can filter through a little bit truly a cloudy day? 

Yeah, it's subjective. 

To me, I'd register this year as a cloudier than average September. Which is contrary to earlier long range forecasts for the month which predicted warmer and drier than average weather. 

Early next week, another trough of low pressure will linger nearby, creating another three days in a row or so of cloudy, showery weather. 

The cloudiness we've seen this month is a prelude to what normally happens in late autumn in Vermont By November, we can expect near constant gloom.  Sorry I'm not cheering you up there.

Part of the problem with late autumn is you get inversions, which is a layer of warm air atop cooler air. This will often leave us sulking under a low overcast. The tops of the mountains poke up above these clouds into sunshine, but the rest of us are stuck under the gloom.

This actually happened during the first half of Wednesday. An inversion kept low clouds, fog and drizzle going through midday. Again, another prelude to late fall. The low overcast persisted in Vermont until increasing south winds abruptly scoured all this out. 

Of course, the south winds were announcing the arrival of the new weather system that came through last night and this morning. The sunshine in Vermont was short lived as clouds swept in during the late afternoon and evening. 

It's the story of this September, I guess. 

Video. If you don't see an image below click on this link to view. Otherwise, click on the image below to watch.  

Will Olympic Athletes Choke On Foul Beijing Air? Some Officials Worry

Officials are worried about air pollution in and near 
Beijing during the upcoming Winter Olympics next month.

On top of everything else to worry about with the upcoming star-crossed Winter Olympics - Covid, China's government, etc there's another potential problem: nasty air pollution.  

As the Washington Post notes:

"With less than two weeks to go  until the Opening Ceremonies of the Beijing Winter Olympics, the Chinese government said is battling 'extremely unfavorable' weather to clear the city's skies of hazardous smog."  

Air quality in Beijing has a reputation of being lousy, especially in the winter, when temperature inversions trap pollutants over the city.

An inversion is a layer of relatively warm air over a layer of colder air at the surface. The inversion acrs as a lid, preventing pollutants from blowing away and dispersing. 

The Chinese government has been working for months, even years, to find ways to minimize the winter pollution in time for the Olympics.

Agence France-Presse reports:

"In an attempt to clear the smoggy skies, steel plants around the city were ordered to cut production in half in August and coal stoves in 25 million households across northern China were replaced with gas or electric burners ahead of the Games."

Fine particulates which can cause problems ranging from heart attacks to lung cancer to premature babies, was at 33 micrograms per cubic meter of air last year.. That's down by a third from 2013 but still about six times higher than levels recommended by the World Health Organization, notes Agence France-Presse. 

Fossil fuels are of course a huge source of the problem in China.  Almost 60 percent of China's economy is powered by coal.  China has also seen surges in fossil fuel imports and mining to combat power shortages that have dampened factory output and the overall economy.  

The immediate weather forecast is not terribly encouraging. Conditions favoring a temperature inversion are expected to intensify as we approach the end of the month. Chinese celebrate Lunar New Year's Eve on January 31 with fireworks, which would certainly worsen the pollution in Beijing. 

The Olympics are scheduled to run from February 4 to 20. 

 

Murky Vermont Weather Is Also Polluted

A murky, somewhat polluted winter day last February in 
St. Albans, Vermont beneath a temperature inversion.
Another inversion is causing some air quality concerns
in Vermont overnight. 

 We have suffered through quite a few days in Vermont so far this month with thick, low overcast, fog, haze and whatnot. 

When you get these calm, dank, depressing spells, sometimes you get another problem. Air pollution, believe it or not. And that's a bit of a problem tonight. 

Much of southern Vermont is under an air quality alert through around 11 a.m. tomorrow.

When there's a temperature inversion, stuff that comes out of tailpipes, chimneys and such gets stuck without being able to blow away.  That's especially true when winds are light, like today.

Remember, a temperature inversion is a layer of warmer air overhead. It's called an inversion because normally it gets colder with height, not warmer. 

Anyway, the inversion acts like a lid, keeping pollutants and fog and stuff trapped beneath that layer of warm air. 

Most of the pollution when there's a Vermont air quality alert in the winter consists of tiny particles that come out of chimneys, wood stoves and the like when we burn wood. 

As today's air quality alert states:

"Children and older adults, as well as people with heart or lung disease, should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion. Exposure to elevated levels of fine particles such as wood smoke can increase the likelihood of respiratory symptoms in sensitive individuals and aggravate heart or lung disease."

These types of air quality alerts happen almost every winter in Vermont, as this is the time of year when inversions tend to persist.   The strong, high sun in the spring and summer tends to easily break up inversions. The sun is still at a low angle now, and not as strong as it will be in a few months. 

The Rutland area is especially prone to this type of air quality problem because the valley is shaped somewhat like a bowl. An inversion puts a lid on this bowl and everybody's wood smoke gets trapped. 

The air quality alert is not in effect for Vermont north of Rutland and Windsor counties. Still, the air quality in the rest of Green Mountain State is not great this evening, so it literally won't kill people who have health problems to take it easy tonight and tomorrow morning. 

As of this evening, air quality was sort of borderline.  An air quality index of over 101 calls for caution among sensitive people. Both Rutland and Burlington were in the low 90s for an AQI as of 5 p.m. today.

Winds will begin to stir during the day Friday, which will likely improve the air quality.