MAGA Denial Continues As Wildfires, Boosted By Climate Change, Ravage Northern Hemisphere

Horses flee a wildfire in Biscarrosse, France
recently. There was no time to evacuate them,
so the horses released so they could run away
on their own. Followup stories reported 
the horses were later found and retuirned
to their owners. 

While MAGA was complaining this month about wildfire smoke wafting across the border into the United States, blazes were breaking out all over the Northern Hemisphere in a relentless, climate changed summer. 

MAGA has been complaining about the wrong thing, obviously. Climate change, the problem that most in the MAGA world deny, is driving much of this fire trouble. 

And, while MAGA complains about Canada supposedly not managing its forests and driving smoke south across the border, the Trump administration has cut forest management funds and jobs in the United States.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Wildfires are a risk every summer and fall, with or without climate change. These days, many of the blazes are turbocharged by climate change. 

The warmer world is helping make fires worse. As I noted in a previous blog, Canada and other far northern areas area especially susceptible to climate change. 

The snow melts earlier in the spring than it once did, leaving more time for the vast boreal forests to dry out. Summertime heat waves up north often set record highs. Hot, dry weather dries things out further. 

When weather disturbance finally grace the Great, formerly White North, the heat helps increase atmospheric instability. So you get lightning strikes. That set new fires amid a landscape that doesn't receive adequate wetting from the scattered thunderstorms. 

Europe is burning, too. It's the world's fastest warming continent, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 

The extra hot summers Europe has seen in recent summers are certainly killing thousands of people across the continents. That's the biggest problem. But that hot weather is also drying out the continent's woodlands, forests and scrublands, leading to enormous fires, some of which are burning as I write this. 

Here in the United States, the western half of the nation endured a record hot, dry winter and early spring. According to World Weather Attribution, the heat, particularly the hot temperatures in March, would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

That heat early this year set the stage for the deadly wildfires in places like Utah and Colorado in the late spring and early summer.  A hot, dry spring and summer also contributed to serious wildfires in northern Minnesota. 

The Minnesota fires might have been made more intense because of our MAGA president. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, the Trump administration delayed a $10 million grant that was supposed to help Minnesota thin out about 4,000 acres of dense, dry forest at high risk of burning. Most of that work ever got started, according to five people familiar with the situation and a document reviewed by the Washington Post. And now, some of those areas are on fire."

The project would have removed decades of dead trees and undergrowth, creating breaks that would stop advancing fires. The grant would have paid for fire prevention efforts along a key 36-mile gravel road.  One of the two dozen lightning-sparked fires burning since the beginning of the month jumped the road and threatened houses. 

Remember, Trump and MAGA complained that recent big fires were so destructive and smoky in California and Canada because they didn't "rake their forests" or whatever he was trying to say. 

So, Trump & Co. canceled money that would have literally raked Minnesota forests. 

Even worse, many in the West and elsewhere fear that the 6,000 permanent U.S. Forest Service staff lost to layoffs, buyouts and early retirements as the Trump people keep decimating critical government work. The Trumpsters also wants to move the agenda headquarters to Utah and consolidate or close dozens of research centers and regional offices. 

Dave Upthegrove, Washington state's elected public lands commissioner told NPR: "These layoffs at the federal level are presenting risk to our ability respond to major wildfires."

U.S. Forest Service said in June that they have reached or exceeded seasonal hiring goals for woodland firefighting this summer. 

We shall see. It might be hard to tell whether firefighting capability this summer is as robust as it could be, amid the noise of all the wildfires out there. In the United States and elsewhere. 

THE FIRES

As of this past Saturday, 932 wildfires were still burning on Canada.  Those fires were burning in a  huge band from Yukon and the Northwest Territories and through northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan  into most of Ontario and central Quebec. More recently, there's also been a burst of new fires in southern British Columbia. 

The British Columbian fires are extending into the new United States fire hot spot in Washington and Oregon.  

In Washington, the Kaiser Mountain Fire not far north of the Grand Coulee Dam has covered more than 100,000 acres. That one is likely the largest of dozens of fires burning in the state. 

Down in Oregon, 1,200 wildfires were burning on Oregon. Crews were arriving in Oregon fro as far away as New Zealand and Australia to help. 

In Colorado and Utah, monsoon rains have tamped down, but not eliminated the fires. A turn toward drier weather will almost immediately help the wildfires power up again. The monsoon downpours hit areas where wildfires stripped the landscape of trees and vegetation that held the soil together. The fires also cooked the soil, so water runs off instead of soaking in.

These factors have already created huge flash floods and debris flow. One debris flow caused widespread damage in and below Cottonwood Canyon, where a fire burned through earlier this summer. 

Europe

As of Saturday, at least 250,000 people had been evacuated in France and Spain because of the fires. That includes 70,000 people evacuated in central Spain. That was said to be the largest European evacuation since World War II. At least one death was reported in Manises, Spain. 

The fire around Madrid was described as the worst in that city's history. 

The city of Bordeaux, France appeared to be in serious trouble.   The wildfire was described as a "firestorm"  last Friday but had later calmed down somewhat Saturday. Still, the Associated Press description of the wildfire fight sounds like a war battle:

"....fire crews and authorities were digging trenches, using retardants and taking other blaze-blocking steps. French Interior Minister Laurent Nunex said,  predicting a 'long and very difficult' battle."

The final stage of the Tour de France was shortened as thick smoke hit the region, CNN reports. 

Temperatures in western Europe are forecast to climb again this week, heightening the risk of new fires, and possibly making existing fires worse. 

During mid-July a wildfire swept through a section of southern Norway, destroying more than 100 homes. 

Finally, in what should be damp Edinburgh, Scotland, the second wildfire in three months ravaged Arthur's Seat, a landmark extinct volcano that offers sweeping views of the city. The fire came somewhat close to housing for students at Edinburgh University, but no damage to those structures was reported. 

Record December Warmth Engulfs Western U.S.; Will Spread ..

NOAA's extended forecast for days surrounding
Christmas show strong chances of above normal
temperatures, with probably some record
highs thrown in, across much of the southern
U.S. It appears New England will stay cold. 

While most of the U.S. froze in the past 

few days, the western United States has been basking in record December heat. 

Atmospheric rivers during much of last week brought devastating flooding in Washington State. Those also brought record warmth.   

Yakima, Washington reached 72 degrees on Wednesday and Richland reached, 71 degrees, the hottest temperature for the entire month of December Several Washington cities had overnight lows in the 50s, breaking records for highest minimum temperatures for the date. 

The next day - Thursday -  it cooled off a little in Washington, but the record highs continued. Those records included 66 in Yakima; 64 in Mountain Home, Idaho; 63 degrees in Twin Falls, Idaho, and 58 in Burns, Oregon. 

On Thursday, it was 63 degrees in Salt Lake City, tying the record for the date. 

Thursday's winter heat extended south into the southwestern U.S. Clayton, New Mexico had a record high of 82 degrees. Las Vegas on Thursday tied their record high of 74. Flagstaff, Arizona tied their record with 68 degrees. 

The long warm spell in the West has an exception. The Central Valley of California has been locked in a chilly fog. It's called the Tule Fog, and is pretty common during the central California valley, which includes Sacramento, Fresno and on south to near Bakersfield. 

But this one has been incredibly persistent. The valley floor has been locked in this fog for more than two weeks.

The Tule fog has kept cities like Sacramento relentlessly cool, with almost no variation in temperature. Readings in Sacramento have stayed between 40 and 47 degrees each of the eight days between December 7 and 13.

Meanwhile, elevations higher than 1,200 above sea level in the foothills near Sacramento have been enjoying sunshine and abnormally high temperatures for December. 

The Tule fog aside, almost the entire West has been quite warm all autumn.  November was the hottest on record in Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah. The rest of the West had one of its three or four hottest Novembers. 

The warmth that's been bottled up in the West is poised to surge eastward. By the time we get to the days leading up to Christmas, it looks like parts of the Desert Southwest, the southern Plains and maybe states near the Gulf of Mexico could see record high temperatures.  

As I mentioned in an earlier post, it will turn somewhat warmer, at least at times here in Vermont starting later this week, but we won't fully get into the balmy pre-Christmas air. 

Heat Looms Coast To Coast, But Especially In The West

Midsummer flowers, including day lilies, hollyhocks and
astilbe, enjoy a refreshingly cool start to the day today
in St. Albans, Vermont. Humidity is set to return
Wednesday for what looks like an extended stay 

 I have to say Monday was my version of a perfect summer day in Vermont. 

Warmish, but by no means hot, humidity was perfectly reasonable, a sunny sky was dotted by a few pretty clouds and a soft breeze blew around lovely scents of flowers and forests, and kept the bugs at bay. 

After a comfortably cool dawn, we have another gorgeous one on the way today. Then the humidity returns. Probably for an extended stay. 

The pattern in the coming days is a lot like what has long been predicted for the summer. 

Heat will be concentrated on the West Coast and Intermountain West, and more or less along the East Coast. Nobody, really anywhere in the nation will experience truly cool weather, unless you include Alaska, of course. 

The weather pattern in the coming weeks might or might not hold for the rest of the summer. But long range forecasts call for warm to hot weather lasting for quite awhile, even if a few brief cool breaks sneak their way into New England every once in while.

 At least for now, the stronger of the two heat domes is in the West. Here in the Northeast, it will definitely be warm and humid, but at least in the immediate future, we in Vermont will escape the true torrid heat, like the kind we suffered through in mid-June. 

Weak weather fronts will keep cutting off the hottest, most humid air at the pass, keeping it mostly south of Vermont. There won't be much oomph from Canada, so those fronts won't exactly push in the refreshing air, either. 

So, it'll be mostly highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s, rather humid, with chances for showers or thunderstorms at times for at least the next week in Vermont.  You might have to water the garden, though. Most of the rain looks scattered and not super impressively heavy, except in local thunderstorms that won't cover much area. 

WESTERN HEAT

While much of the nation will be hot, even dangerously hot, the real epicenter of the heat this week is in the West.

Record highs will surely be broken in what is expected to be a long lasting hot spell.

Sacramento is forecast to endure five consecutive days of temperatures at or above 109 degrees. Previously, they've never had more than three consecutive days such days there, so if the forecast holds, that will be an impressive record. 

Redding, California at last report, was expecting a high of 117 by later in the week. That city's all time record high is 118 degrees, so that will be close. 

As the Washington Post tells us, here's the expected daily  highs this week, today through Sunday in Death Valley: 122, 125, 127,128,128 and 129.

The hottest reliably measured temperature on record in Death Valley is 130 degrees. A 134 degree reading measured there in 1913, but that mark is considered unreliable and suspect.  

The heat wave is expected to poke up into the Pacific Northwest, where Portland, Oregon expects a high of 101 degrees this coming Saturday. 

The extreme heat and dry conditions are raising the risks of wildfires, which of course are even harder to control when firefighters are dealing with temperatures in the 100s and 110s. 

This kind of thing is consistent with climate change. There's heat waves every summer, of course. But the trend is for longer, more intense hot spells, and the western heat coming up seems like an example of this. 

It's only early July. We'll probably be dealing with heat waves right through Labor Day, so buckle up. 

 

Delightful, Tranquil Weather Continues Here In Vermont, No So Much Elsewhere

Unique photo of a hail storm aftermath in
Nebraska Saturday. In the foreground, little or
no hail fell, in the background,
you suddenly hit an area where a LOT of
hail fell. Photo via Twitter by 
@tractorjockey

 The weather here in Vermont is uneventful, but beautiful!  As mentioned yesterday, this will be a lovely week of spring weather in the Green Mountain State.

Since there's not much to talk about here, we'll look at some of the somewhat less happy moments going on in other parts of the nation. 

SEVERE WEATHER

We're into the month of May, so we're at the peak of severe weather season for the United States.

So of course, there's some to report. Luckily we're not having any kind of super outbreak of tornadoes, but there's plenty of rough moments to go around. There were 13 preliminary reports of tornadoes in the Midwest Saturday and five more on Sunday. 

The big story was big hail. Hail up to the size of baseballs pummeled some parts of Iowa, causing damage to siding, windows and cars. Video out of Grinnell, Iowa from Live Storms Media shows hail up to the size of baseballs driven by winds of up to 80 mph.  As you can imagine, the side of any house or building facing the direction of the incoming hail was trashed. 

Another video shows an Iowa rangeland fire apparently started by lightning under dramatic storm clouds. The video goes on to show firefighters responding to the scene, only to be pelted by large hail and intense winds.  A pretty wild video worth the watch! 

Although more severe weather is in the forecast this week in the middle of the nation, this still doesn't look like it will be an enormous outbreak, at least by historical standards. 

WESTERN FLOOD RISK

After an incredibly snowy winter in the high elevations of the West, there's still a lot of snow in them thar hills.  We have seen damage in Utah and California from snow melt floods already, and it will probably get worse. 

A couple of houses in Utah have already been swept away by a mudslide, and numerous buildings have been flooded. 

Little Bear Creek is already beginning to flood in Utah
because of snow melt. You can see a lot of snow still
left in the mountains in the background. 

Utah officials said they're only a third of the way through the spring thaw in the mountains, so there's a lot of water left to come down. 

Very warm temperatures are in the forecast for the western U.S., including the mountains of Utah and eastern California in the coming days. That will surely send lots of water downhill into populated valleys. 

In Morgan County, Utah, officials are basically guaranteeing a reservoir will overflow, causing a flood crisis in nearby communities. 

In California, Lake Tulare is back.  It used to be one of the largest freshwater lakes in the United States, but it was drained to make room for agriculture. 

Now, it has re-appeared because of all the rain and snow melt California has seen.  It has already submerged about 100 square miles of crop land. 

But the bulk of the snow is yet to melt from the mountains. This will create a crisis in the coming days and weeks as Lake Tulare butts up against levees, and potentially busts through them. 

This is a long term problem, too. Once the snow melt ends, it will take forever for Lake Tulare to drain again. The last time this, happened, in 1973, it was two years before the lake was gone and agriculture could resume. 

I guess this is a good reason not to drain lakes to build farms or anything else. 

In any event, you will be hearing a lot about flooding in the western U.S. in the coming days.

Few More Rain Chances Here In Vermont; Heat Drags On In West

This little guy took advantage of a bright, cool, clear early 
morning today to have a salad breakfast on my 
St. Albans, Vermont lawn. 

I'm sure more than a few people from places like California, Arizona, Nevada and other western states wish they were in or near Vermont this morning. 

As that dreadful, wicked, record breaking heat wave grinds on in that part of the nation, a burst of cool air from Canada is keeping us refreshed.  

After a mild, breezy Wednesday, temperatures took the plunge last night under clear skies. It was nothing that unusual for mid-June, but still cool. 

Saranac Lake, New York hit 34 degrees; Gallup Mills, Vermont saw 36 degrees, Shrewsbury, Vermont 38 and Island Pond, 39 degrees.

We'll enjoy another nice day today, with highs well up in the 70s.  Sunshine and low humidity will keep things drying out, though, which isn't good. There are some chances of rain coming up, though. More on that in a bit. 

First, that heat out west. There are still some impressive numbers coming in.  Las Vegas got to 116 degrees, tying the record with numerous other days as the second hottest reading on record there. The desert city of Needles, California got to 118 degrees.

Furnace Creek in Death Valley made it to 125 degrees. It's always hot there this time of year, but that's ridiculous.

The heat extended as far east as the Dakotas.  My relatives in Yankton, South Dakota sweltered through a high of 102 degrees. Mitchell, South Dakota got to 105. 

It didn't even dawn on my until I read an Associated Press piece that heat waves like this in the southwest cause an influx of patients to hospitals with serious burns.

A typical scenario is an elderly person falls onto a hot sidewalk in, say, Phoenix when it's 115 degrees in the shade and can't get up.  The concrete or asphalt sidewalk is at 180 degrees or even more in the sun, so a person who falls and can't get up gets serious burns. 

Last year, 104 people were admitted to the Arizona Burn Center for injuries from contact with hot surfaces and seven of those people died from those burns, the AP reported.

Up here in Vermont, we're fortunate in that respect

Frequent disturbances coming in from the west and northwest will mostly keep the heat at bay in the Green Mountain State. We might get a brief squirt of some hot, humid air Monday before another cold front comes in.

Before that, you'll notice it warming up tomorrow somewhat ahead of an initial cold front.  It's got a lot of energy with it, so severe storms are likely today in Iowa, tomorrow in the Ohio Valley and perhaps Saturday in New England. 

The early thinking is the best wind and updraft profile will come through New York and western Vermont too early in the day to trigger much in the way of severe storms, but some nasties could fire up further east. 

Forecasters will watch the timing of this thing to give us further details tomorrow on whether to expect any severe storms Saturday. 

I don't think there will be all that much beneficial, needed rains for Vermont with this.  It will be another hit and miss affair, with a few places getting decent, brief downpours with this. The showers and storms will be fast movers, so there won't be an opportunity for them to drop much rain before racing on toward New Hampshire. 

Another cold front has the potential for more showers early next week. We'll take anything we can get, I suppose. 

Enjoying The Pretty Vermont Clouds While West Wilts In Record, Incredible Heat

A shower crossing Lake Champlain Tuesday, as seen from 
South Hero, Vermont. Needed rain in a few parts of 
Vermont. Meanwhile, incredible heat and drought
intensifies in the western United States.

One of the things I like most about summer in Vermont is the sky is often much more interesting than in the winter. 

On days when there's scattered thunderstorms, these beautiful towers of clouds rise high in the sky. As they did on Tuesday. 

These clouds are full of texture, shades of white and gray and sometimes black.  I can watch them all day. 

These clouds are no comparison to the spectacular, otherworldly and dramatic photos of supercells from the giant storms in the Plains. 

But it's OK that we tend to be more mellow here in the Green Mountain State.  Pretty clouds can be just as pleasing as dramatic ones. 

At least around my place in northwestern Vermont,  Tuesday's interesting clouds did little good. I'm basically in the (not so) Great St. Albans Desert, so showers and thunderstorms have a habit of detouring around me. They soak nearby Georgia, Vermont just to the south, and Highgate, just to the north. 

So, all my thirsty gardens got was a piddling sprinkles and brief periods of light rain. Oh well. 

I'm sure people out in the western United States would have begged for Tuesday evening's St Albans sprinkles and temperatures that dropped into the low 60s immediately behind the drizzly cold front toward evening. 

The western heat wave is only just beginning and already, all kinds of record highs are crashing.  Salt Lake City, Utah, reached 107 degrees Tuesday, tying its all time record high for any date, and breaking the record high for the month of June. 

The heat was pretty much unprecedented, especially for so early in the season up in Montana and Wyoming. When record highs are broken, it's usually by a degree or two. Tuesday's records were shattered by five or even 10 degrees. 

Some examples:

Billings, Montana reached 105 degrees, old record 98

Livingston, Montana 98 old record, 88

Miles City, Montana, 109, old record 97

Sheridan, Wyoming, 108, old record 98.  Sheridan, like Salt Lake City, tied its all time record high for any date on the calendar. 

Greybull, Wyoming reached 108 degrees, breaking the old record for the date by an astonishing 20 degrees. Laramie, Wyoming, often one of the nation's notorious cold spots,  also tied its all time record high, reaching 94 degrees. 

High elevations stayed hot, too, as NBC News reported. Grand Junction, Colorado, at 4,500 feet above sea level, was at 105 degrees. Flagstaff, Arizona, way up there at 6.900 feet, had a record high of 91 degrees. 

The heat and the intense drought in the West are feeding off each other in a nasty feedback loop. The lack of moisture means more of the sun's energy can go into heating the air, helping cause the record high temperatures. 

Those record high temperatures help dry things out further, making an extreme drought even worse. 

The intense heat is forecast to continue out west for the rest of the week. 

This latest heat crisis has all the fingerprints of climate change. It's still true that you really can't take one weather event and automatically blame climate change. But this is so consistent with what scientists keep telling us that climate change would bring that it practically screams it. 

This is especially true since it's only mid-June, and the Northern Hemisphere has already experienced several record breaking heat waves, including one earlier this month right here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast. 

These hot spells have consequences. Wildfires are breaking out like crazy out West, and existing fires are exploding in size and power. 

Speaking of power, electrical grids are straining as everybody's air conditioners work overtime to keep up with the usage. 

In Texas, where it's hot but not super unusual for them, they're already threatening rolling blackouts again. Though the Texas situation has more to do with mismanagement than climate change. 

I complained at the start over the relative lack of rain around my St. Albans, Vermont house. But it did rain a little. And it's blessedly cool out.  There are no big heat waves in Vermont's immediate future, but gawd knows what July and August will bring. 

I'm lucky to just sit back and enjoy those beautiful summertime towers of clouds, and hope the people suffering from the heat in the West see some nice, wet cold fronts soon. 

Those cold fronts are not in the forecast out there, but one can hope and pray.