Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Monday Evening Storm Update: Late Tuesday Vermont Storm Forecast

NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has the highest
risk of tornadoes in northern New England. The 
little hash marks mean there's a chance there
could be a strong tornado thrown in. 

I know everyone is watching the storm threat for Tuesday evening and night, and unfortunately the forecast still looks kind of scary. 

The overall threat level and location of the threat is still about the same as we talked about this morning. 

This is easily one of the most intense severe weather forecast I can remember around here. Forecasts don't necessarily come true, but the signs still point toward some truly dangerous weather. 

An enhanced risk of severe storms (level three out of five) is still up for northern New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. 

Before we get there, we have a few showers are coming through this evening, maybe even a rumble of thunder. No biggie. 

We're still on for a really hot day tomorrow.  Maybe a few showers and clouds could come through in the morning. Maybe. Maybe not. But that shouldn't interfere with any big storms late in the day.

We'll just sweat it out in near record heat through the day. Just temperatures in the 90s with a heat advisory in effect.  Wildfire smoke might help hold temperatures down just a bit with low 90s instead of mid-90s. 

Then we get to the evening. By then, a good chunk of southern Quebec will have been raked with damaging winds, big hail and probably at least one or two tornadoes if not more. 

We're still looking at most of the storms coming in around sunset and into the night. Here are the risks:

WIND

This is the big issue. Some of the storms might be individual supercells, not connected to the any lines of storms, Those supercells can create intense straight line winds. Not to mention tornadoes and/or large hail, which we'll get to in a bit. 

There will also be short lines or clumps of storms, all capable of winds of 60 mph, or 70 mph or even more in a couple spots. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire and interior Maine in a 30 percent chance zone of damaging winds. That means, if you're standing anywhere in this risk region there's at least a 30 percent chance of wind damage within 25 miles of where you ar. 

That seems a bit low, but it's much higher than we usually see when severe thunderstorms are forecast around here. Expect power outages and tree damage, even structural damage to buildings if this forecast comes true. 

TORNADOES

Tornadoes, too, is about as high a risk we can get in northern New England.. True, the risk of tornadoes is definitely lower than the destructive winds. But still, the risk is higher than I've seen in a long time. The Storm Prediction Center even has the possibility of stronger tornadoes, EF-2 or higher. That's exceptionally rare for northern New England.

Individual supercells can spin up tornadoes, of course. But there could be areas of rotation embedded in some lines of storms. 

HAIL

The Storm Prediction Center has also upped the chances of large hail. Supercells could produce hail as big as two inches in diameter. That's as big as hen eggs, which can definitely dent cars, break windows and damage to siding. 

TIMING/LOCATION

Highest chances of storms are between 8 p.m. and a little after midnight. Storms will tend to fade as they approach southern Vermont late at night as they lose their atmospheric support.

CAVEATS

The area under highest risk is pretty broad brush. There's going to be short lines of storms or supercells. It's possible the bulk of the worst storms could head toward Maine. Or New York. Or Vermont. It's impossible to tell just yet.

These storms are going to be somebody's problem for sure. We just don't know whose problem just yet. At this point, just be aware the weather might really get rough and dangerous tomorrow evening and night. If all this misses Vermont, great! If not, we'll have to deal with it.

Between now and tomorrow afternoon, if you know if somebody is camping in the woods, definitely try to get them out of the forests by late tomorrow afternoon. Falling trees in high winds are no joke. 

 

After A Perfect Summer Weekend, Vermont's Weather Week Turns Hot, And For Some Of Us, Scary

An enhanced, level three out of five risk for 
severe storms is up for tomorrow night in the 
orange areas of this map. That's a rare risk level
for this part of the country. Damaging winds
are the biggest risk. But there could be large
hail or even a couple of tornadoes. 

Our perfect weather weekend in Vermont is over, and it's time to face reality. 

The forecast for the first part of this week, especially Tuesday turns very hot. 

And for many people, especially in northern parts of the state, the forecast turns frightening. A significant severe storm outbreak is now expected across northern New York and northern New England Tuesday evening and night. 

That includes Vermont, especially for areas along and north of Route 2.

More on that in a bit

You probably wouldn't call Sunday's weather cool, but at least as measured in Burlington, the low temperature was 57 degrees. was the "coldest" start to the day since June 24. 

But, Sunday afternoon temperatures reached the low to mid 80s, so summer lives on,

Today to an extent, and especially Tuesday, we will briefly experience the other side of summer. The side that's no so pleasant. The side that's uncomfortable, annoying, even dangerous, as noted above Let's get into the details, in chronologicalorder

TODAY

It will try to get hotter today, but a semi-warm front will try to interfere with that process with some clouds and maybe some showers. But the sun will be out much of the time.  The scattered showers will be pretty light, and mostly in northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening, 

Highs will get well into the 80s. 

TUESDAY 

This time period will bring Vermont some of its most dramatic weather in years. There's still some question about how hot it will get. And how humid.

The forecast, as I noted yesterday, was for hot air to blast in from Montana and North Dakota. 

Large parts of the northern and central Rocky Mountains were absolutely insane yesterday. It was as hot as 116 degrees in Montana.  Several cities set all time record highs including 115 in Miles City, Montana,  111 in Billings, Montana, 109  in both Salt Lake City, Utah and Sheridan, Wyoming.  

It won't get to 116 here in Vermont thank goodness, but we do expect a one-day flash of intense heat. 

Highs should get well into the 90s amid increasing humidity. The forecast high in Burlington tomorrow is 98 degrees.  Which, believe it or not would not be a record high, as it was 100 degrees on that date in 1995.

It is possible, though somewhat unlikely, that a couple places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees tomorrow. 

The humidity Tuesday might be a little higher than previously expected. We noticed dew points in the 70s in parts of North Dakota yesterday. So we can at least expect dew points to be in the oppressive 65 to 70 degree range. 

It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow, too, so it will be a blast furnace kind of day. Needless to say, a heat advisory is up for most of Vermont. 

That all sets us up for what could be a scary Tuesday night

TUESDAY NIGHT

I haven't seen such a threatening severe thunderstorm forecast in years. A sharp cold front will be moving south from Quebec and hitting all that hot, humid air. Conditions are just right to produce what could be a helluva severe storm outbreak in northern areas especially. 

And it will hit on the 31st anniversary of one of the worse derechos in the regions history. Early on July 15, 1995 and intense band of storms caused widespread damage in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

This time, the target is, as noted, northern New England. As it stands now, the biggest risk zone is along and north of a line from Massena, New York, to Burlington and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, Berlin, New Hampshire, and on up through the northwestern half of Maine. 

Those areas are under an enhanced, level three out of five level alert for severe storms Tuesday night an evening.  That's a rare designation for our region. The last time any part of Vermont was under an enhanced risk level was on July 16, 2024. 

Straight line winds is the main, but not only risk with these potential storms. These winds could be much more powerful than your standard issue severe thunderstorm. We're talking  maybe 70 to 80 mph  or more in a few locations. (As in all severe storm outbreaks, the area affected will have spotty areas with lots of damage, with other areas not seeing anything super dramatic.)

Large hail is a definite possibility. If you have a garage, put your car inside it tomorrow night. 

There's also, once again,  a tornado risk with this outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says one or two tornados in the northern New England risk zone could be strong. That's an extremely rare thing to say for this neck of the woods. 

And consider this: The only place in the United States that might get a tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night is northern New England. I guess we're the new tornado alley>

This is also going to be a deceptive severe storm event. Usually, things get active in the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening. But at 6 p.m. tomorrow, it will probably be sunny and hot, with few if any signs of impending storms. 

But the storms should start to cross the border from Quebec toward 8 p.m. The risk of severe weather will probably continue until around 2 a.m. Wednesday. 

Nighttime storms are particularly dangerous, because it's harder to see them coming. And many people have shut off their phones for the night, so they can't receive severe storm or tornado warning.s 

This is an especially dangerous situation for campers in the woods. If you know anybody is doing that, tell them to get the hell out of the woods and to a safe place by early evening tomorrow.  Note that the 1995 derecho killed at least five campers in the Adirondacks. 

Another weird thing about this potential severe outbreak is its limited location, at least in the United States. (A broad area of southern Quebec is also under the gun with this system Tuesday afternoon and night).

Given that this is happening at night, the ability to sustain the storms will wane as we get later into the night. Also, the atmospheric wind patterns that will help make these storms so intense will probably start to break down by or shortly after after midnight. l 

So the storms will begin to fall apart as they head toward the southern half of Vermont.  By the time you get south of Route 4, there is only a marginal (one out of five on the risk scale) risk of severe weather. If you are in Bennington or Brattleboro, chances are you won't see any kind of thunderstorm, not even some lame garden variety thing. 

Back north, if this thing goes the way current forecasts suggest, there's going to be some pretty widespread power outages. A lot of trees will come down, some into homes, I imagine. Suddenly, I'm not so thrilled by the large trees in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

Obviously, forecasts can change. Volatile weather setups like this are notorious for being either worse, or much less severe than forecast.  One thing we can hope for is if this whole thing slows down. If the storms wait until later at night than forecast, then they probably won't be as severe. That's a hope, not a forecast. 

I obviously will have a big update tomorrow morning in this here blog thingy. 

Then, when we get to tomorrow night, have a way to receive weather warnings. A NOAA weather radio is a great resource.  I'm also betting local TV meteorologists will cut into regular broadcasting to provide warnings and updates as the storms loom. 

It's been a weird summer. Sunny and nice, but also very stormy. So here we go again. 

 

Rutland County Hit By Big Storm Friday. All Of Vermont Faces Hot, Steamy Weather In Upcoming Days

The severe thunderstorm in Rutland County yesterday
with a wild shelf cloud. Note the blue tint in the clouds.
That suggests there's quite a bit of hail up there. Photo
was taken by Mary Jean Wasik Obtained via Facebook

 Well, we got through our latest severe weather threat pretty much unscathed. Most of us anyway. Quite a few people in Rutland County would beg to differ. 

As severe weather probabilities were updated midday Friday, the word, "tornado" somehow came back into the vernacular. They said there was a very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in eastern Vermont or New Hampshire in the very worst storms. 

Turns out there was only one thunderstorm of note, and it was a doozy. It developed near Ticonderoga, New York around 2:30 and headed southeast. through northern an eastern Rutland County. 

Dime sized hail fell in Hubbarton and Hortonia, Vermont. It then moved on to knock down numerous trees in Proctor and in the north and east sides of Rutland. 

I don't see any evidence the damage was caused by a tornado. Looks like straight line winds caused all the Rutland Couty trouble. 

The storm appeared to weaken somewhat crossing the Green Mountains because I don't have damage reports there. But the storm blossomed again as it crossed the Connecticut River into Cornish, New Hampshire, where hail was big enough to dent cars. 

The storm continue on through southern New Hampshire as a rotating supercell, spewing damaging wins and hail along its path.

Parts of Vermont that were not hit be severe storms still had generous rainfall. It was hit and miss, or course, bur Burlington had a storm total of 0.68 inches. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected right around an inch of rain from Thursday night through late Friday afternoon. 

The rain is mostly over, for now, and summer is really going to make a stand. The details: 

TODAY

There were areas of low clouds and fog around early this morning around Vermont,  but that should mostly clear out to reveal a nice, typical Vermont summer day. Highs will get into the 

You'll see some building, towering clouds here and there over the mountains, and some of those will develop into showers and garden variety thunderstorms. They'll pretty much stick to the mountains and do no harm. From the valleys especially it will be a great cloud watching day as showers and storm develop, then fade as new ones form. 

A few showers  could try to wander off into the valleys during the afternoon and evening, but they'll probably weaken as they do so. 

While you're watching the clouds, or doing anything else outside, it should get up to near 80 degrees for most of us. Humidity will be moderate. 

SUNDAY: 

A copy of today, except it will be a couple degrees warmer and there will probably be few storms and showers over the mountains. 

MONDAY: 

The heat and humidity really start to build. It should still be fairly reasonably with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a spot 87 or 88 in the warmest valleys. 

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

The heat is on. Hot, humid, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the warmest valleys Tuesday through Friday. 

It's hard to say exactly how hot it will get, as clouds and storms might interfere with the hottest temperatures. For now, the National Weather Service is going with a high of 91 degrees in Burlington Tuesday, followed by 95 Wednesday and Thursday. 

Granted, Burlington is warmer than many other parts of Vermont. But regardless of what happens, with location and afternoon showers and storms,  it will be uncomfortable. 

 As I mentioned in yesterday's post, we will be on the northeast corner of a big heat dome that will be setting up over the eastern US. "Ridge runner" patches of thunderstorms could go over the top of the heat dome in southern Canada and then head southeastward over us at any time during this upcoming hot week. The first chance of this is Tuesday night. 

With all the heat and humidity in place, there's a chance that storms could become severe or lead to local flash flooding. It's way too early to determine for sure whether this will happen, and if so, where. But on top of taking care of yourself in the heat, you might have to keep an ear out for severe storm warnings, too.

 

UPDATE: Confirmed:Tornado Last Night In Williamstown, Vermont, Top Wind 90 MPH

A maple sugaring shack collapsed in a confirmed EF-1
tornado that hit Williamstown, Vermont last night

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed late this afternoon that a tornado did indeed hit Williamstown, Vermont. 

It was a very brief one. It was 100 yards wide and only traveled just under a half mile (the path was officially 0.43 miles long. The tornado hit at 9:15 p.m. and was on the ground for less than three minutes.

The tornado was rated an EF-1 with winds up to 90 mph. Here's the National Weather Service narrative on this one: 

"Initial damage was observed as sheared tree tops about 100 yards west of damage observed on Chelsea Road, to an old sugarhouse and small building estimated as EF0-EF1. Damage continued east to a neighborhood on Lila's Way, where EF-1 damage to a hone was observed, along with damage to numerous trees, Damage then became scattered wind damage in the form of straight-line winds estimated at 60 to 70 mph. Golf ball size hail with siding and window damage observed along Baptist Street,"

An EF-0 tornado has winds of 65 to 85 mph. An EF-1 has winds of 86 to 110 mph 

I have not seen any reports of injuries which is great!

No tornado warnings were issued before the brief touchdown.  My guess is that since the twister was east of the Green Mountains, radar in the Burlington area was unable to pick up ground level rotation. Or the tornado was so brief it hit between radar scans.

The lack of a tornado warning does not appear to be related to Trump administration cut backs to the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South had been tracking the tornado's parent thunderstorm all evening. Rotation was detected over the Adirondacks but it appears no tornado touched down there .

The thunderstorm weakened slightly in the Champlain Valley but re-intensified over and east of the Green Mountains. The NWS noticed how much the reinvigorated storm had intensified. At 9:27 p.m., they issued a severe thunderstorm warning

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 9:27 p.m. for northeastern Orange county and south central Caledonia County. The warning told people in the area to expect 60 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball sized hail.

WPTZ reported that residents were understandably shocked by the storm.  Christian Pratt said he believes the roof of his home was damaged by wind and hail He said the large hail falling on the rood sounded like somebody took a ladder and dumped a load of rocks on the roof. The kitchen window on his house shattered

Vermont averages just one tornado per year. I believe this twister was the first one since July, 2023. This was Vermont's first April tornado on record. The rare occasions when we do see tornadoes usually come during the summer.

Vermont's first March tornado on record occurred just five years ago in Middlebury. 

  

Some More Showers, Even Thunder Today, Adding To Needed Vermont Rains

After the rains in my back yard, St. Albans, Vermont 
on Tuesday. Got out there between the the rainfall
Monday and today to get a little fall cleanup done
Was nice to be in such beautiful surroundings. 

We have more rain in the Vermont forecast today, which is great for those of you, ( i.e. everybody)
who hates our deep northern New England drought. 

It won't be a huge dump of water, but any rain is good rain. 

The best rain was of course on Monday. Final rainfall totals are in. 

The best rains were along and just west of the central and northern Green Mountains, and in the northern Champlain Valley.  Some of these totals were really impressive.

Nashville, which is a section of Jericho, Vermont was the big winner with 3.79 inches, though I did receive an unofficial report of 4.25 inches out of Georgia, Vermont. 

Other big totals included 3.55 inches in Warren; 3.44 inches in Chittenden; 3.17 inches in Underhill and 3.16 inches in Hancock.

It was nice to see rivers with actual water in them after that rain. 

TODAY

The amount of rain we'll see today won't come anywhere near what we saw Monday. The National Weather Service is going for maybe a tenth of an inch south of Route 9 near the Massachusetts border a quarter inch give or take between Route 9 and Route 2 and perhaps a third of an inch north of Route 2.

But that's broad brush. This is going to be a showery type thing, so some places will get extra rain, other places will miss out. Kind of like a summer cold front. 

Total rainfall from Monday's storm. Heaviest rain was
in the central and northern Green Mountains and
northern Champlain Valley. A few spots got more
than three inches of badly needed rain 

We even have a chance of a few thunderstorms mixed in. It's kind of a dynamic storm even if its moisture supply isn't huge. Since it's a little chilly, a few storms might feature a bit of small hail.

Don't worry, if you do see hail, it would be the size of peas, not Volkswagens. So nothing damaging or scary. 

We've already seen some brief downpours in northwestern Vermont a little after dawn today. It's a sign the bulk of today's action will be between now and mid afternoon. 

We'll see a lull late this afternoon through most of tomorrow morning. We'll only see widely scattered light showers.

Showers will pick up again tomorrow afternoon. They will be light, though. Just chilly and annoying. We'll be lucky to see another tenth of an inch of rain.  It'll be cold enough on the Green Mountain summits for a little snow.

DRY TIMES AGAIN?

Unfortunately, we are yet to fully escape the weather pattern that encouraged this drought. Since at least August we have repeatedly had huge honking high pressure systems stall over us or in Quebec. 

At first, on Friday and Saturday, it will stay generally cloudy, with maybe a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry or two. Then, nothing. 

These highs have featured super dry air. They also deflect any storms that want to come our way, and eat up any moisture that wants to drift up toward northern New England. 

We have yet another huge honking high that will set up shop over us and Quebec beginning Saturday. That'll keep us in Vermont dry for at least a week.

One cold front will try to approach us next Thursday but that high will probably make those go poof before they get here. Then the big honking high will get reinforced. So after the sprinkles this Friday or Saturday, expect no rain until at least November 1.

That's a full week without precipitation. We've had longer stretches. And since it's late fall, the sun won't dry us out as fast as it could in the summer and early autumn.

Plus, long range forecasts are somewhat encouraging, leaning toward above normal precipitation for at least a little while in early November. 

The drought will linger for a long time yet. But fingers crossed, I'm hoping the drought peaked last week.  Maybe we'll slowly improve. 

The newest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out tomorrow. It will reflect conditions through yesterday. I'll provide an update once it's available 

After A Stormy Vermont Thursday, A Delightful Fourth, And Then Summer Returns

The first round of strong to severe thunderstorms
approaching South Burlington, Vermont early
Thursday afternoon. The storms caused scattered
wind and hail damage throughout the state, and 
disrupted some pre-Fourth celebrations 

 That NOAA outlook for yesterday indicating Vermont and the rest of New England should watch out for severe thunderstorms certainly came true. 

Numerous reports of wind damage and hail came in from all six New England states, along with New York and New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. 

Here in Vermont, two rounds of strong storms hit, one early in the afternoon, the next toward evening. 

The evening round surprised me a bit because it was the stronger of the two, and came after cooler air had already started arriving. 

It shows that some summertime weather disturbances can really pack a punch, even if they're not really feeding on hot, humid air to power them. 

Two rounds of damaging storms blew through Thursday. 

The first round in the early afternoon mostly affected mostly northern Vermont, knocking down trees near Keeler Bay in the Champlain Islands and cutting power to areas in and around St. Albans. The early afternoon storm knocked over a tree onto a parking lot at the University of Vermont, damaging a car.

That first line of storms made its way down to Rutland County by mid-afternoon, dumping hail. Hail the size of ping pong balls pelted East Wallingford, and quarter sized hail hit Danby. I'm sure a few people there have dented cars this morning.  

The second batch of storms roared out of New York State, crossed Lake Champlain and basically traveled down Interstate 89 before cutting through east central Vermont.  Winds at Sand Bar State Park in Milton gusted to 58 mph.

 More trees and wires came down in parts of Burlington, and in Essex, Montpelier and certainly a few other places.

At one point Thursday evening, about 8,500 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont.

Burlington does its fireworks display on July 3 and a crowd had already gathered at the city's waterfront when this storm hit. The storm prompted a hasty evacuation as lightning crackled overhead. The storms moved on pretty quickly, so fireworks later in the evening went off without a hitch, however. Montpelier also cut off its Fourth of July festivities Thursday due to the severe weather. 

 That second round of storms brought some cold air down from aloft. Thursday evening was chilly!  Temperatures were only in the upper 50s in parts of the state in the hours before sunset. 

Overall, Thursday was one of the busiest and most disruptive storm days in Vermont's 2025 severe weather season

TODAY/WEEKEND

Today, the Fourth of July, will certainly not be one of the stormiest days of the summer. 

There are a bunch of so-called "fair weather clouds" out there. Air high above us is still chilly. The strong early July sun creates updrafts of air. Moisture in that rising air condenses into clouds once it hits the cooler air, so you get some clouds. 

The sun will be in and out all day. The sunniest area will be the Champlain and Lower Connecticut River valleys.  The cloudiest areas will be in the Green Mountain and Northeast Kingdom. But everyone should see at least some sun for the rest of the day. 

Towns holding fireworks displays this evening should be A-OK, with partly clear to clear skies and great visibility. You might want to bring a light jacket. Temperatures should drop from the 70s to the low and mid 60s after sunset. Those temperatures should bottom out in the 50s by early Saturday morning, with some 40s in the cold spots.

Saturday looks awesome with generally sunny skies, and temperatures in most spots reaching the 80s. 

We're still looking at a brief squirt of hot,  humid air Sunday. Many Vermont communities will make it to at least 90 degrees.   

Some Severe Storms Around Vermont/Northeast Today. But First Dry Weekend Since December?

Scattered severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts
and large hail are possible mostly in the yellow
shaded area. As you can see, this includes Vermont. 

After Wednesday's pleasant weather - marred slightly later in the day by the return of some wildfire smoke - today's going to be sort of a head's up kind of scenario. 

A cold front, a pocket of cold air aloft and some other disturbances will coordinate with each other to   bring us some strong to locally severe thunderstorms. 

After that, we have some potentially big meteorological news for this coming weekend.  More on that later, but let's get into today first.  

THURSDAY STORMS

It's looking like today might be kind of a weird thunderstorm day. Usually, on most stormy days in the summer, you get a peak in activity during the late afternoon and evening, and that will be kind of the case today. Best chances of seeing a storm are between 1 and 6 p.m. today. 

But it won't be limited to just the usual afternoon and evening rumbles and lightning strikes.  Some storms will come through this morning, as the atmosphere is unstable enough so that we don't have to wait until the sun heats up the air to help create our storms.  

Already, as of 7 a.m. today, a cluster of showers and a smattering of lightning bolts were  over the southern and central Adirondacks, making a beeline toward mostly central and southern Vermont. More storms had already gotten going over western New York and southern Ontario and were heading east.  There was already a local downpour in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont as of 7 a.m. 

Later today, a few thunderstorms could linger after a  cold front passes through this afternoon, which is odd. 

 Usually, once your cold front has passed, so has your threat of thunderstorms. But trailing disturbances in the atmosphere, along with that chilly pocket of air aloft, could keep scattered non-severe but possibly locally strong storms going until until nightfall.  

The bottom line is they'll come through in hit and miss fashion all day.  The vast majority of New England, including all of Vermont, along with New Jersey and eastern New York has a level two out of five risk alert for severe storms today. 

As usual, most places won't see damaging winds or hail today.  

But some will, and it will be kind of random. The biggest threat is those locally strong winds that could knock over some trees and power lines.  The chillier air aloft opens up the possibility of an isolated instance or two of hail big enough to dent your car or damage your garden. 

You'll need to listen for possible severe storm warnings and be ready to get inside a sturdy building. Today is NOT the day to go out on the lake, or take a hike up into the mountains. Especially with all that lightning that'll be crackling around the summits. 

In many areas of Vermont, the storms won't technically be severe or particularly damaging, but they will contain dangerous lightning, briefly torrential downpours, gusty winds and hail.  A few "lucky" towns    won't see anything at all, and others will just have a few rumbles of thunder and a little rain. 

I'm not worried about any flash flooding. Most places should get a quarter inch or less of rain. Towns that really get nailed could see up to an inch. But those higher totals will be pretty isolated.

DRY WEEKEND?

Last weekend was the 28th in a row with at least some precipitation.  In all the records at Burlington dating back to the late 1880s, there was only one other time there were more consecutive weekends with rain 

That was 30 such weekends, starting September 1, 1934 and ending March 23, 1935. 

Records are made to be broken, but this time, it's looking more and more like that Depression-era record will stand.

After today's storms, and a very low chance of light showers over the Northeast Kingdom Friday, it looks like we'll have to wait until Monday for our next chance of rain. You never know a rogue shower could arrive in Burlington maybe Sunday night, but right now I doubt it.

The Details:

The Fourth of July weekend might turn out dry, but it will be changeable.

Friday the Fourth should be dry and cool for the season, with refreshingly low humidity. Friday evening should be clear, so Vermonters will have no trouble watching the fireworks. 

Saturday morning will dawn clear and comfortably cool, but by afternoon, you'll notice it heating up, We should get up into the 80s but the humidity still woh't be so bad.

Sunday looks HOT, with highs for many of us reaching at least 90 degrees, with increasing humidity. 

A cold front should begin to cut the hot spell short beginning on Monday. Or maybe Tuesday. There should be some showers and storms around early next week, but it's too early to provide details.  

Last Week's Austin, Texas Storm Super Wild, Super Weird

From Facebook, photo of damage at Austin Wildlife
Rescue after the massive supercell and oxymoronically
named large microburst in the city last week. 

 Texas is known for its, well, Texas sized storms.

But even by those standards, what hit the Austin, Texas area was absolutely wild.  I guess the "Keep Austin Weird" slogan applies to the weather there as well. 

A fast developing, giant supercell roared over the city on May 28.   It almost, but didn't quite produce a tornado. But it might as well have, given the damage it caused. There were also no other storms around it, just an isolated, big, bad one, Very bad,

It produces  one of the worst microbursts, one of the heaviest rainfall rates and some of the worst hail to ever hit Texas, and maybe the United States for that matter. 

MICROBURST

As the name implies, microbursts hit a relatively small area.  On average, they'll do their damage in a one to two mile diameter area. 

Microbursts, as noted,  are often are as dangerous as tornadoes, as the storm in Austin demonstrates.  Some microbursts carry wind gusts of 100 mph, which is the equivalent of an EF-1 tornado. (For comparison the tornado that hit in Middlebury, Vermont, in March, 2021, seriously damaging one home and causing lighter damage to several others, was an EF-1

The National Weather Service explains what causes these dangerous thunderstorm microbursts.:

Strong updrafts suspend a bunch water droplets in the upper portion of the storm. At some point, the updraft is no longer able to sustain all that stuff, so it lets them go like a clumsy waiter dropping a tray load of dishes. 

When the "tray load of dishes" hits the ground, all hell breaks loose, like it did in Austin, writ large.

The Austin area microburst, despite its name, was pretty huge.  

The damage path was about ten miles long, with a path ranging from one to 2.5 miles wide. Maximum sustained winds within the microburst were probably between 65 mph and 85 mph, with a few embedded higher gusts. The Austin-Bergstrom International Airport had a 77 mph gusts, reports KXAN.

REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT

To make matters worse, the supercell had something called a rear flank downdraft in which winds reached up to 75 mph.  As KXAN reports:

The National Weather Service mapped out damage
from the May 28 supercell and big microburst.
Area in red is damage from the microburst, yellow
is from a real flank downdraft. The darker
the color, the worse the damage was.

"A rear flank downdraft is caused by pressure patterns within a supercell thunderstorm that force cool mid-level winds quickly down to the ground before getting pulled back into the rotating thunderstorm."

Rear flank downdrafts are common in in supercells, especially strong ones like that in and around Austin last week.

Like the microburst, the rear flank downdraft moved southeastward, in tandem with the microburst that was just to the north and east of the rear flank downdraft.

This downdraft and its 75 mph wind blew right through downtown Austin.  

DAMAGE

The wind, as you'd imagine, knocked down a lot of trees and power lines. About 180,000 residents lost power.  Winds of that speed tend not to seriously damage well-constructed homes, but it was enough to tear shingles off roofs and break windows  I'm sure several homes and other buildings suffered damage from falling trees

Windows and doors were reported broken by the wind at Austin-Bergstrom airport and the Texas State Capitol building in Austin. The canopy over gas pumps at an Austin service station collapsed onto cars beneath it whose owners were taking shelter from the hail. Thankfully, only minor injuries were reported. 

The largest oak tree in Austin's first Black cemetery toppled over and damaged several headstones.

The wind drove large hailstones sideways, damaging the siding on countless homes, Roofs, crops, trees and gardens were also blasted and wrecked.  

Intense flash flooding swept cars off roads and left at least one person dead. At least five others had to be rescued from submerged cars.

 The spot where the microburst first hits the ground is usually where the worst damage is.  In Austin's case, there might have been a train of microbursts, one after another. Or, the supercell thunderstorm that caused it had much more rain and hail to unload than most storms. 

It was also a single thunderstorm and not a line. While all hell was breaking loose on the north side of Austin and its suburbs, it was a pleasant evening with sunshine in the southern end of Austin.

Austin is weird. 

VIDEOS

Compilation of some of the storm scenes in Austin: As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that,

More images, mostly of the flooding from the microburst last week in Austin: Again, click on this link to view, or if you see image below click on that, 

 

May Has Produced Some Dramatic Storm Videos, As Per Usual.

Cleanup starts after the devastating tornado in St. Louis
earlier this month. Photo by Brian Munoz via Facebook

Late April and May, living up to their usual stormy standards, has certainly produced some dramatic and sad moments across the United States.   

It's been busy and destructive this year, with particularly vicious, deadly storms striking St. Louis, Missouri and in Kentucky.  It's also been serious in other parts of the nation too.

This brings us to some videos of some of the worst, most dangerous and sometimes most tragic events of this spring. 

Following are some examples.

First,  a compilation of the tornadoes that hit Minnesota and Wisconsin May 15. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that

Drone video of London, Kentucky of tornado damage. You can see how the core of tornado grinded homes into tiny little pieces. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that

A harrowing news story of a family of seven in a London, Kentucky home that was picked up by the tornado with all of them inside and thrown across the street. Miraculously all seven just had minor injuries. Two next door neighbors died.  Again, click on this link to watch or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another harrowing story of how a couple both lost arms while clinging to each other as the Kentucky tornado blasted through their house. Again, click on the link to view, or if you see the image below click on that:

Video follows the path of last week's tornado in St. Louis. Maps included show how densely populated the area that was hit was. Miracle only five people died in the city. Again, click on the link or if you see the image below, click on that:

Tornado and aftermath seen through a deputy sheriff's dash cam in Colorado. Click on this link or if you see image below click on that to view;

 

Tornadoes Getting The Spotlight This Year. But Hail Is Causing Even More Damage

 Tornadoes have been in the news a lot this year. 

Serious hail damage to a home in Wylie, Texas back
in April, 2016. Hail is one of the leading causes of
weather-related damage in the United States.

And no wonder. There have been 1,007 tornadoes in the United States through May 26 this year.

Sixty-two Americans have so far died in twisters so far this year. So you can see why tornadoes are a BIG DEAL.

As expensive as the tornado destruction has been - and it has been expensive - there's a severe weather phenomenon that's been happening a lot this year. That would be hail. 

Hail is usually one of the most expensive type of disasters yearly, and this is no exception. 

Tornadoes, as horrible as they are, have fairly narrow damage paths. Some are as much as mile wide, but most are much less than that. Tornadoes can travel over dozens or in rare cases hundreds of miles, but usually the damage path is only at most a few miles. 

Hail storms, on the other hand, usually cover a much larger footprint of real estate. 

Hail very rarely kills people and usually doesn't completely destroy a house. But hail damaged roofs and sometimes punctures through them. Hail breaks windows, hopelessly dents or shreds siding, damages and destroys cars, trashes landscaping and decimates crops. 

Especially in cases in which hail punctures roofs, homes can suffer severe water damage. (Torrential rains usually accompany the hail).

On top of all that, hailstones have more and bigger targets to inflict harm. Over the past few years, cities - including in the hail-prone Plains, Midwest and parts of the South - have sprawled outward. These metropolitan areas have miles and miles of suburban housing developments surrounding them. 

It used to be the chances were a bad hailstorm would miss a city since it was a small target. Now, not so much. As a result of all these factors and more, hails causes up to $15 billion in damage annually.

The insurance industry is taking notice. 

As NPR reports, insurance rates are up 35 percent from a few years ago in Kentucky and Nebraska  Rates are up 34 percent in Arkansas 32 percent in Minnesota and 27 percent in Texas, Colorado and Iowa.

Hail damage isn't the only reason these rates went up but it's certainly a factor. .Like in other types of disasters hail its prompting insurance companies to cut back on coverage and the costs the storms incur.

Per NPR:

"They're going to scale back coverage primarily on the roofs,' said David Marlett, managing director of the Brantley Risk & Insurance Center at Appalachian State University. He said they will now cover the value of a damaged roof rather the cost of buying a new one. "And they're going to attempt to increase rates to match the risk."

The jury is still out on whether climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of hailstorms, There is preliminary evidence that a warmer climate could produce larger hailstones. The larger the hailstones, the more damage they cause. 

I even imagine there will be insurance claims for hail this year in Vermont.  Hailstones in Vermont are usually too small to cause much damage, but sometimes there's exceptions.  Saturday May 17 was one of them. 

Hail up to two inches in diameter - a little bigger than golf balls - struck parts of southern Chittenden County, especially around Hinesburg, St. George and Richmond. 

I'm sure those caused at least some damage.

Videos:

Hail crashes through skylights of a Texas home earlier this year. Click on this link to view, or if you see image below, click on that.

Hail crashes through skylights at a Rice Lake, Wisconsin Walmart in July, 2023. As always click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Similar but even worse scene inside a mall as hail crashed through skylight in a Wyomissing, Pennsylvania shopping mall in 2014. Again, click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that. 

Chaos in a home as hail crashes through windows in Carter Lake, Iowa on August 18, 2011. Again, click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Saturday Storms In Vermont Left Impressive Trail Of Damage, Flooding and Big Hail Stones

 OK, I guess I did jink it. 

Menacing, swirling clouds just ahead of a powerful
thunderstorm that hit St. Albans, Vermont 
Saturday afternoon.  Storm caused flood, wind and
hail damage across Vermont

On May 7,  I remarked in this blog thingy that Vermont so far this year has escaped weather extremes and destructive storms that have been a near constant in recent years in the Green Mountain State.

Not to mention many other places in the U.S. 

Then Saturday hit. 

We knew there might be some locally severe storms and maybe an instance of flash flooding or two. But Saturday's storms really, - unfortunately - over-performed.

As I'm sure you've heard by now, flash flood damage was pretty widespread in Vermont.  High winds also toppled trees and power lines, and hail up to the size of golf balls pelted some towns.

Wave after wave of storms came through, some in the form of supercells, others in lines and clusters of powerful rains and winds and lightning. 

I actually spotted at least two areas of rotation on radar. One was south of Burlington as a supercell passed through southern Chittenden County.  The other came a little while later over St. Albans and Georgia.

Neither incident came close to producing a tornado.  But my place in St. Albans, Vermont was under that rotation and it was a little unsettling to see green clouds and other menacing clouds moving in different directions.

There were plenty of storm reports in Vermont to go around. 

The supercell in southern Chittenden County and on into Washington County produced some impressive hail. Golf ball sized hail pelted East Charlotte and a section of Stowe between the village and Stowe Mountain Resort. 

Hail the size of quarters and even ping pong balls hit places like Richmond and Hinesburg. There was a lot of hail, too.  Video I saw on Facebook showed torrential hail, I think in East Charlotte sliding off a roof and forming a pile more than a foot deep on somebody's deck. 

That supercell, combined with other torrential thunderstorms before and after it, set off quite a bit of flooding around Charlotte and Shelburne. That flooding got worse in the Mad River Valley, where several roads were damaged or under water around Waitsfield and Warren.

Part of Route 100 in Warren was closed. A section of Main Street in Waitsfield washed out. Several other roads in and near the Mad River Valley were also damaged. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, flooding was reported around Montpelier. Not from the Winooski River, but just from downpours overwhelming storm drains and drainage ditches. Parts of Route 2 in Plainfield were under water. Route 14 in East Montpelier had to be closed for a time due to high water. 

The town of Hartford including White River Junction were hit hard as several streets were under water. Trees and power lines toppled throughout the town. 

I was also impressed by how electric these storms were.  Two storms passed through St. Albans, and both of them had loads of cloud to ground lightning and crashing thunder.  Haven't seen anything like that in a few years. 

As bad as the damage was, I don't think it was enough to have another disaster declaration in Vermont.  Besides, under the Trump administration, it's harder and harder to get federal aid. 

So, unfortunately, Vermont towns and municipalities, along with the State of Vermont that suffered road and infrastructure damage Saturday will probably just have to eat it somehow. 

Yeah, we didn't need Saturday's storm

OUTLOOK

The good news is we face no more severe thunderstorms for quite awhile. The bad news is it's going to keep raining for the remainder of this already very wet May. 

How wet has May been so far? An example is Montpelier. The entire month of May normally bring about 3.5 inches of rain. So far this month in Montpelier, they've had 5.35 inches, including 1.86 inches Saturday. 

Light but fairly persistent showers are expected today, with more scattered ones tomorrow. 

As we've been advertising, this week is going to be much cooler than it's recently been. Instead of 70 and 80s, highs will mostly be in the 50s all week, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. 

The second half of the week looks particularly showery and cool.  Computer models are now arguing over whether we will have frequent light showers toward the end of the week or another soaker. Stay tuned. 

Videos: Nebraska, Iowa Hail, Tornadoes Wreck Towns

Gigantic hail propelled by high winds smashed out
the windows of this Fremont, Nebraska hotel and
pockmarked the exterior walls 

Last Thursday, a cluster of intense thunderstorms unleashed tornadoes, intense winds and gigantic hail on areas of eastern Nebraska and western and central Iowa.

There were at least 23 reports of tornadoes near Omaha, Nebraska.  One tornado in Iowa was 1.8 miles wide, which would hold the record for the widest tornado in Iowa history. 

Communities that avoided the tornadoes were instead bombarded by gigantic hail propelled by winds that gusted to hurricane force. 

The National  Weather Service said the storm in Fremont features hail up to the size of baseball accompanied with wind gusts to 82 mph. 

Some of the videos are wild, so we'll give you some samples in this post. 

Here's a Facebook reel of the chaos inside a home as hail stones crashed through windows, spreading ice and debris through the home's interior. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that. 

Next video shows heavy amounts of hail pummeling Raymond, Nebraska. Click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that:

Taken just after the storm, video shows the metal exterior of Mel's Diner battered, and a Rodeway Inn in Fremont, Nebraska with all the windows on one side busted out and its stucco walls pockmarked with hail damage as if shelled in a war. Parking lot is full of hail-smashed cars, too. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 We're always wowed by the drama of storm videos, but we can't forget there are real victims. To bring you back down to Earth, here's a news video where a woman whose southwest Iowa house was damaged in one of the tornadoes notes it hit on the anniversary of her husband's death, and the same week her beloved dog died. 

I do hope things get much better for this lady. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Thursday Morning Update: New Weather Pattern Spells Trouble For Nation's Middle, But Lets Us In Vermont Off The Hook

This patch of almost ready for prime time daffodils
in St. Albans, Vermont survived Wednesday's day
long snow showers just fine. 

 Well, that was fun yesterday. 

It pretty much snowed all day, at least where I was, but it being well into April, it amounted to what I'd call white rain. 

In other words, the snow melted on contact, even grassy surfaces which still can tend to collect snow this time of year. It amounted to a bit of beneficial water for those new daffodils blooming out there. 

Go up slightly in elevation and the snow did stick, at least a little. 

I know it snowed pretty hard on the mountain summits of the central and northern Green Mountains, but I haven't seen many accumulation reports yet. Jay Peak got three to six inches of snow, less than the foot some forecasts had called for. 

For now, the snow is (mostly) done for the season. On to spring

NEW WEATHER PATTERN

After a relative lull, almost daily severe storms, floods
and tornadoes will strike the middle of the nation
from now probably at least into early May.

The weather pattern has shifted, which turns out to be bad news for much of the United States but good news for us here in Vermont. 

 Dangerous weather will hit parts of the nation almost daily going forward for the next couple of weeks.  

Here in Vermont, things mostly look benign, uneventful and mild enough to keep us happy for the most part. 

There's been a bit of a lull in our national severe weather and tornado season for the past week or so, after some terrible tornado outbreaks in March and early April. 

The severe weather, and flooding are now coming back. They might not be as intense as we saw earlier this month, at least not at first, but we're getting into the heart of tornado season now. So things will get active. 

Here's how it's setting up: 

Storm systems will keep developing just east of the Rocky Mountains and head into the Plains and Midwest. For now, none of these storms will be blockbuster huge, but they'll pull plenty of moisture fro the Gulf. 

That moisture, combined with the spin in the atmosphere created by the low pressure systems, and chillier air trying to come in from the north, will be more than enough to create repeated rounds of severe storms and flooding. 

It's hard to tease out who gets what more than a few days in advance. Today will start the trend with strong storms, maybe some "gorilla hail" and a tornado or two around Iowa and Nebraska.

Gorilla hail is a colloquialism coined by storm chaser Reed Simmer to describe hail that's at least two inches in diameter or greater. Two inch diameter hail is about the size of a lime.  Such hail is obviously dangerous and causes a LOT of damage to cars, roofs, crops and many other objects. 

In any event, the severe weather threat moves on to cover a broad strip from northern Texas through most of Michigan. Again, hail, high winds and maybe a few tornadoes will develop in this zone on Friday. 

Severe weather threats will then continue daily in different areas in the nation's middle and South. Some days will only have a few bad storms, others many. This state of affairs looks like it will go on at least into early May. 

Flooding looks like a sure bet, too with this weather pattern featuring such wet, warm air coming off the Gulf. In the short term, the greatest threat of dangerous flash flooding looks like it will be over the weekend in Arkansas and Missouri. 

VERMONT

This new weather pattern is a good one for Vermont if you don't like wild extremes.

That long series of Midwest storms will end up coming toward or fairly near Vermont, but by the time they get here, they'll be pretty unimpressive.  Most of the time, we'll  have risks of rain and showers every second or third day, but, unless a surprise or two enters the picture, these rainy periods will just be your typical spring showers. 

It looks like this weather pattern will also keep temperatures more or less close to normal or maybe a tad warmer than average for the remainder of April, at least on most days. Normal for this time of year is highs in the 50s to low 60s. 

Each storm might hold a minor surprise to make things interesting, but don't expect big bouts of severe storms, flooding or other super  dangerous stuff. 

This should lead to a long spell of Vermont weather that for the most part will be uneventful, but with maybe some quick surprise moments of relative excitement from time to time. Excitement might be too strong a word, because I don't see anything gobsmacking coming toward us for awhile. 

In general, this weather pattern will keep temperatures near normal around here for the next couple of weeks, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Not bad.  Rainfall will be on the light side, though with springtime showers and thunderstorms possibly thrown in from time to time, there might be some locally heavier downpours or other excitement from time to time. 

Because there will be a series of fronts coming through, there might well be some quick excursions into much above normal temperatures, and back to chilly readings, too.

The first example should arrive this weekend.  As the first of those disturbances arrives, there could be some loud but not severe thunderstorms Friday night, especially the further north and west you go in Vermont. 

There could be some decent downpours with a couple storms, but most places north of Route 2 should only receive a quarter inch of rain, with less than that the further south you go.

Depending upon how much sun breaks through Saturday, many spots could also top 70 degrees. A few computer models put us well into the 70s, so we'll see.

By Sunday,  though, it will be chilly again with below normal highs in the 48 to 54 degree range and a pretty hard freeze by Monday morning. 

Beyond that, the forecast gets fuzzy, so we'll just leave it at that. Except to say there's no more snow in the forecast, except for maybe a the tippy top of some of the highest mountains.