Early Afternoon Vermont Storm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center
highlighted the area in purple as the most likely
zone for scattered severe thunderstorms, and possibly
even a brief tornado spinup. Although there's a low
but not zero chance of such a spin up in Vermont,
tornadoes are slightly more likely in northwestern 
Maine of all places, and southern Quebec. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already starting to break out in and around Vermont as of 1 p.m. as the air destabilizes south of a warm front and east of a cold front. 

By the time you read this, much of Vermont and parts of New Hampshire and Maine, and maybe some other areas will be under a severe thunderstorm watch. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a statement highlighting northern New England as a potential hot spot for severe storms this afternoon and early evening. 

Very moist air - gawd that humidity! - and an approaching little disturbance and a cold front, increasing winds aloft, combined with a low pressure system in southwestern Quebec are all doing their job to get those storms going, as we expected from earlier forecasts.

The timing of all this is perfect - afternoon and early evening. Those are the hours in which the strong July sun further destabilizes the air, ultimately making the storms more powerful.

There was some question as to whether we'd have enough late morning and early afternoon sun to prime the severe thunderstorm pump. but we've seen some big breaks in the clouds, especially early the afternoon.

This has all boosted temperatures well into the 80s. Even flirting with 90 in a couple spots. All that heat, combined with the already-mentioned humidity, is a recipe for big storms. 

Some of these storms will develop into at least brief supercells. Those are those rotating, powerful thunderstorms that can produce ferocious wind gusts, incredible rain rates and maybe tornadoes. 

The United States location with the greatest chance of seeing a couple tornadoes today is northwestern Maine. Go figure. Southern Quebec is also under the gu n for those twisters - especially those expansive flat areas outside of Montreal.

It's plausible northern Vermont could see a brief, weak tornado, but the chances are lower here than in southern Quebec or those parts of Maine. 

I'm pretty sure, though, that we will see scattered instances of straight line wind damage.

Not everyone will see a severe storm. Including in central and northern Vermont, where the risk is highest. There will only be scattered instances of damage. 

But be weather aware, and have a ready source to receive severe storm warnings quickly. If you get a warning you'll need to get into a sturdy building away from windows until it passes. 

As of 1:30 p.m., storms were rapidly developing, but most of them so far seemed to be in southern Quebec. Still, development is happening everywhere. And will increase as the afternoon wears on. The atmosphere is looking agitated, with storms seemingly forming pretty easily and quickly.  

Keep an eye to those skies this afternoon, folks!

Some Severe Storms Around Vermont/Northeast Today. But First Dry Weekend Since December?

Scattered severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts
and large hail are possible mostly in the yellow
shaded area. As you can see, this includes Vermont. 

After Wednesday's pleasant weather - marred slightly later in the day by the return of some wildfire smoke - today's going to be sort of a head's up kind of scenario. 

A cold front, a pocket of cold air aloft and some other disturbances will coordinate with each other to   bring us some strong to locally severe thunderstorms. 

After that, we have some potentially big meteorological news for this coming weekend.  More on that later, but let's get into today first.  

THURSDAY STORMS

It's looking like today might be kind of a weird thunderstorm day. Usually, on most stormy days in the summer, you get a peak in activity during the late afternoon and evening, and that will be kind of the case today. Best chances of seeing a storm are between 1 and 6 p.m. today. 

But it won't be limited to just the usual afternoon and evening rumbles and lightning strikes.  Some storms will come through this morning, as the atmosphere is unstable enough so that we don't have to wait until the sun heats up the air to help create our storms.  

Already, as of 7 a.m. today, a cluster of showers and a smattering of lightning bolts were  over the southern and central Adirondacks, making a beeline toward mostly central and southern Vermont. More storms had already gotten going over western New York and southern Ontario and were heading east.  There was already a local downpour in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont as of 7 a.m. 

Later today, a few thunderstorms could linger after a  cold front passes through this afternoon, which is odd. 

 Usually, once your cold front has passed, so has your threat of thunderstorms. But trailing disturbances in the atmosphere, along with that chilly pocket of air aloft, could keep scattered non-severe but possibly locally strong storms going until until nightfall.  

The bottom line is they'll come through in hit and miss fashion all day.  The vast majority of New England, including all of Vermont, along with New Jersey and eastern New York has a level two out of five risk alert for severe storms today. 

As usual, most places won't see damaging winds or hail today.  

But some will, and it will be kind of random. The biggest threat is those locally strong winds that could knock over some trees and power lines.  The chillier air aloft opens up the possibility of an isolated instance or two of hail big enough to dent your car or damage your garden. 

You'll need to listen for possible severe storm warnings and be ready to get inside a sturdy building. Today is NOT the day to go out on the lake, or take a hike up into the mountains. Especially with all that lightning that'll be crackling around the summits. 

In many areas of Vermont, the storms won't technically be severe or particularly damaging, but they will contain dangerous lightning, briefly torrential downpours, gusty winds and hail.  A few "lucky" towns    won't see anything at all, and others will just have a few rumbles of thunder and a little rain. 

I'm not worried about any flash flooding. Most places should get a quarter inch or less of rain. Towns that really get nailed could see up to an inch. But those higher totals will be pretty isolated.

DRY WEEKEND?

Last weekend was the 28th in a row with at least some precipitation.  In all the records at Burlington dating back to the late 1880s, there was only one other time there were more consecutive weekends with rain 

That was 30 such weekends, starting September 1, 1934 and ending March 23, 1935. 

Records are made to be broken, but this time, it's looking more and more like that Depression-era record will stand.

After today's storms, and a very low chance of light showers over the Northeast Kingdom Friday, it looks like we'll have to wait until Monday for our next chance of rain. You never know a rogue shower could arrive in Burlington maybe Sunday night, but right now I doubt it.

The Details:

The Fourth of July weekend might turn out dry, but it will be changeable.

Friday the Fourth should be dry and cool for the season, with refreshingly low humidity. Friday evening should be clear, so Vermonters will have no trouble watching the fireworks. 

Saturday morning will dawn clear and comfortably cool, but by afternoon, you'll notice it heating up, We should get up into the 80s but the humidity still woh't be so bad.

Sunday looks HOT, with highs for many of us reaching at least 90 degrees, with increasing humidity. 

A cold front should begin to cut the hot spell short beginning on Monday. Or maybe Tuesday. There should be some showers and storms around early next week, but it's too early to provide details.  

Saturday Morning Vermont Storm Update: High Winds To Worsen Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain

Latest snow and sleet forecast map issued Saturday 
morning shows little change. Most snow probably
northwest. A little less accumulation along
western slopes of Green Mountain where strong
downslope winds could limit the intensity
of the snow or sleet.

 We're still bracing for quite a Vermont storm on Sunday, and to an extent Monday. 

The forecast for a thump of snow, then a lot of mixed precipitation, then a little more snow has in general not changed since last night.  However, forecasters are getting more and more concerned about wind. 

In addition to the existing winter storm warning, a high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County Sunday.  

Further north a wind advisory is in effect for the western slopes of the Green Mountains pretty much all the way to the Canadian border.  Strong winds are also looking like they will be a factor at the tail end of the storm later Sunday night and Monday. 

As we usually do, let's get into the daily details. Bear with me, there's a lot to get into with this one,

TODAY: As expected, it's starting off cold, with lows in the single numbers with a few below zero readings. It won't get much warmer as skies gradually cloud over.  You'll see on weather radar this afternoon what looks like widespread snow moving in. But the Arctic air over us is dry, so most of that will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

We shouldn't really see anything more than a few snowflakes until after dark. 

TONIGHT: We'll mostly just see light to moderate snow overnight, the kind we're used to, and don't consider a big deal.  Sure, the roads will get slippery, but it won't be anything that unusual. The main show is on Sunday. 

Freezing rain forecast map issued Saturday 
morning by the National Weather Service.
Far southern Vermont could have some
real ice trouble, especially as winds
get stronger Sunday night. 

SUNDAY: A rough winter day for sure, with some places more rough than others. Everybody except perhaps extreme southwest Vermont will start the day with snow falling at a pretty good clip. 

Then, gradually through the morning and very early afternoon far north, the snow will mix with and change to mostly sleet. The sleet will spread south to north across the state.

Wind Worries

The storm's orientation now appears poised to cause one of those damaging downslope wind events along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  I still don't think this will be as bad as the twin wind storms of January 2024, but this will be bad enough. 

Rutland County will probably, arguably see the worst effects of this storm as a snow to sleet and freezing rain scenario in Rutland County should combine with gusts to or even over 50 or 60 mph during the day. It looks like there, the potentially damaging gusts might not be limited to the immediate western slopes like in Mendon or Shrewsbury. 

The damaging gusts could extend into more populated areas like Rutland City and Town, and even as far west as Castleton, Poultney, West Rutland and Wells. 

If enough freezing rain mixes in, it will be all the worse because the wind will be hitting trees and power lines burdened with some ice. Even if everything stays sleet and ice doesn't cling to trees, the winds will be strong enough to knock some of them down, or at least remove some branches.

Further north, a wind advisory is up, as noted along the rest of the Green Mountain western slopes. Places like Ripton, Bristol, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, eastern Enosburg, Bakersfield  and Richford could see wind gusts to 55 mph.  Locally higher in some of the most wind prone areas. 

The one saving grace is precipitation - whatever it may be - will be somewhat lighter in areas with the strongest winds. The downslope winds tend to locally discourage heavy snow or sleet or rain or whatever. 

Forecast wind gust map for Sunday. Orange stripe
along western Green Mountain slopes indicate gusts
at or over 50 mph. This map doesn't include expected
strong wind later Sunday night and Monday. 

Also, places well away from the western slopes, like most of eastern Vermont and the Champlain Valley mostly along and west of Route 7 shouldn't have all that much wind during the day Sunday. It could gust to 25 to 30 mph there, annoying when you're being hit in the face by sleet, but not terribly dangerous.

Mixed Precipitation

There's still disagreement among meteorologists as to exactly when the changeover will happen, how far north the worst of the sleet and freezing rain gets, and what proportion of this storm will be snow, and which proportion will be sleet. 

I think everyone should expect at least some sleet, but expect surprises. Some places will get less snow and more sleet than currently in the forecast, and in some places it might be the opposite. The further south you go, though, the more mixed precipitation you'll get.

A wild card is freezing rain. While it looks like the majority of this mess will be sleet, freezing rain should mix in, especially the further south you go.  Freezing rain is much worse, because it will cling to trees and weigh them down.  That has implications for Sunday night and Monday. More on that in a bit.

Unless the forecast changes a lot, I think northern Vermont will see very little if any freezing rain. It'll be a sleet thing up there. 

The further south you go, the more freezing rain you encounter. I am especially worried about a few areas in far southern Vermont, where a quarter inch or more of ice could accumulate on everything. Once you go above a quarter inch of ice, you start losing tree branches and power lines. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

As what by then will be a twin storm system - one a little to our north, the other strengthening along the New England Coast, colder air will sweep in Sunday evening in all levels of the atmosphere over Vermont. 

That'll change everything back to snow. There could be a really heavy burst of snow for a little while in the evening north. Then it should start to taper off overnight, first in southern Vermont valleys and gradually working its way so that by Monday morning, it will be mostly the mountains still getting snow. 

Strong west to northwest winds will develop.  A high wind watch is up for far southern Vermont Sunday night through Monday evening for possible gusts as strong as 60 mph. 

If there's ice on the trees from Sunday's freezing rain down there, that's a recipe for more power outages. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, expect wind gusts of 40 mph later Sunday night and Monday. The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains could see 50 mph gusts. We might need a wind advisory for later Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds will blow around the fluffier snow that falls atop the likely icy crusty Sunday night. Travel will be no picnic on Monday, either, especially as temperatures will stay quite low. 

BOTTOM LINE/WHAT TO DO

Forecasters in general are still calling for a pretty substantial total accumulation of six to nine inches of snow and sleet for most of us.  Sleet is heavy, so if you get a lot of it, just be forewarned that cleanup won't be a breeze. 

Because of the extra snow at the tail end of the storm the northern and central Green Mountains could do very well with this storm, despite a layer of sleet that might be in there. I would not at all be surprised if some northern Vermont ski areas end up with well over a foot of new snow by Monday night. 

Also, if for some reason the sleet doesn't make it all the way to the Canadian border, some far northern Vermont towns could see over a foot of snow.  All depends on the sleet.

Stay off the roads Sunday.  Especially if you're in the high wind warning and advisory areas, where debris on the roads or falling branches would add to the danger. Charge your devices and get your LED candles out if you're in the high wind/freezing rain zones. You might well lose power on Sunday, and it could take awhile to get the electric back. Especially with strong winds continuing Monday. 

Pro tip: If you are not going to move your car until at least Monday, let the early snow pile up on it.  Then any freezing rain will fall atop the snow, making it easier to clean off the car. If the windshields are covered with snow, the freezing rain won't cling directly to the windows, so you won't have to break your arms chopping and scraping the ice. 

Expect a rough commute Monday morning for much of Vermont, too. It's hard to scrape all that ice off the roads, especially as temperatures will be low enough for salt to become ineffective. Snow will continue in some areas Monday morning, too, especially in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Blowing snow will be an issue. 

Despite getting into the second half of February, winter looks like it will hang tough for quite awhile yet. It'll be very cold the first half of the week, with highs in the teens, low near zero. The cold will relax somewhat by the end of the week though. 

It still look like a new nor'easter will go to far to our south and east to bother us next Thursday, but that's not a unanimous opinion among the computer models. We'll still need to keep an eye on it just in case.   

My Nominee For City Most Screwed By Upcoming Storm Is Buffalo, New York

I nominate Buffalo, New York as the American city
most in trouble by the giant storm now building in the U.S.

 This wide ranging, developing storm that we've been talking about for a few days now will hit so many dozens of cities in the United States.  

Which city is most screwed with this?

We can nominate plenty.  Maybe Bismarck, North Dakota, where the noon temperature there was minus 19 and they're expecting wind chills of around 55 below.

Or Minneapolis? They're right on the edge of a blizzard warning, and they're an airline hub.

I think Chicago is worse. They're a United Airlines hub plus a bigger city.  They'll have minor thawing early Thursday, followed by blinding blowing and drifting snows and crashing temperatures. With winds as high as 50 mph.

You can even make a great case for nominating Burlington, Vermont. This city could have 60 mph gusts, if not right in town then nearby.  Flooding is a risk from heavy rain, and the flash freeze later Friday afternoon makes me shudder.

But in this storm, I would give the nod for worst weather to Buffalo, New York.  They have all kinds of problems with this one. First, it will rain there into early Friday morning. Then Buffalo gets its own flash freeze, and snow will blow in.

The flat Lake Erie will encourage the west to southwest winds even ore than rougher terrain. Winds will surge to over 60 mph. 

Speaking of surge, something called a seiche will hit Lake Erie. As the powerful cold front crosses the lake and sets up the strong west to southwest winds, Lake Erie will slosh toward and into Buffalo.

Essentially the wind will make Lake Erie tilt, with the lower side of the tilt back toward Toledo, Ohio and the higher water at and around Buffalo.

This seiche could make Lake Erie water rise near Buffalo by as much as eleven feet, causing plenty of shoreline flooding and battering waves.

This same wind set up means a round of intense lake effect snow squalls. This area has already dealt with snow squalls that dumped a few feet of snow in a few days. But those squalls at least were accompanied by reasonably winds and temperatures that weren't super cold.

This time, those screaming 65 mph winds, heavy snow and plunging temperatures will lead to dangerous blizzard conditions in those squalls. 

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has been calling this a once in a generation storm. No kidding!

So, yeah, Buffalo is screwed.

Epic Storm Departs Plains, Widespread Damage Left Behind

Satellite view of epic storm in the Plains late yesterday
afternoon. That white area on the right is a string of severe
thunderstorms and tornados. Where it curves back to the '
left is blinding snow squalls. All of that brownish color
in the middle and bottom are massive dust storms. 

 Early risers in Chicago awoke to the smell of smoke before dawn today. 

Nope, they weren't facing a new Great Chicago fire. Residents there were sensing the sad aroma of Kansas burning.  This was just one indication of how extreme and weird this storm was. 

The storm did pretty much what it was expected to do, meaning it set records for temperatures, wind speeds both inside and outside thunderstorms, tornadoes and more.'  And was completely off the rails. 

The smoke people in Chicago, and other cities like Omaha and Des Moines smelled was from incredibly fast moving wildfires in Kansas and Oklahoma.  All those cities also reported dust blown from Colorado and Kansas hundreds of miles into their communities.

The fires threatened towns and hamlets in both states. Parts of Guymon, Oklahoma were evacuated, as winds gusting to 79 mph pushed the flames. One house was destroyed by fire.  In Russell and Ellsworth counties, Kansas, two fires merged to produce a fire front that was at one point 40 miles long.  

NOAA' s Storm Prediction Center has 21 preliminary reports of tornadoes as of this morning. One of them was near Rochester, Minnesota, making that the first recorded December tornado in that state.

Winds gusts reaching 85 mph or more extended from Colorado to southern Minnesota, helping illustrate the huge area covered by the intense winds.  The Washington Post said Wednesday brought the most number of reports of winds of 75 mph or higher in a single day since 2004. 

Numerous homes lost roofs in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado. A building collapsed in Kansas.  The wind was strong enough to blow windows out of cars parked in Hampton, Nebraska. The control tower at Kansas City International Airport was evacuated for a time because winds were too strong for personnel to be safe there.

The police headquarters in Colorado Springs was among the buildings that lost roofs.

Dust storms reminiscent of the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s ripped through the Plains, too, closing Interstate highways, causing crashes and widespread air quality alerts.

The warmth ahead of the storm also broke some impressive records.  In Des Moines, it got to 74 degrees, breaking the record for the warmest December day on record by five degrees.  Madison, Wisconsin also had its hottest December day on record, reaching 68 degrees. Columbia Missouri, 76 degrees, Quincy, Illinois, 75 degrees and LaCrosse, Wisconsin, 69, degrees all also set new December records. 

That weird, extreme storm is now heading into Canada, creating 34 foot waves on Lake Superior as a parting shot. 

The weather is now settling down into something a little more normal.  But there's still some trouble on the horizon.  Western Kentucky, still trying to somehow recover from last week's horrific tornadoes, now faces a forecast of heavy rain and possible flooding tomorrow.

Here in Vermont, the outer edges of that immense Midwestern storm is still set to create some record high temperatures today.  Gusty winds today and tonight might cause a few power outages here and there. A new storm is also now expected to give us a mid-sized snowstorm Saturday and Saturday night. More on that tomorrow. 

Videos. If you're using a mobile device, click on the hyperlinks to view. 

Fox Weather has some video clips of storm scenes. I'm impressed by the amount of lightning last night in Iowa: 

The Washington Post also had some clips of the storms: 

Tumbleweeds pile up in the strong winds in this Colorado neighborhood:

Severe Storm Threat Tomorrow in Vermont/Northeast

Areas of the nation shaded in yellow are under a risk
of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The vast areas '
under the risk include Vermont, where damaging
straight line winds are the biggest threat.

Vermont,and many surrounding areas tomorrow are under the first real severe thunderstorm threat since March.  

A squirt of very warm, humid air and an approaching cold front will be the combination that could touch off the storms here, and in much of the rest of New England, New York, Pennsylvania and parts of Ohio.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area in its slight risk category for severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. That's level two of a five point risk scale. 

 Slight risk generally means there would be scattered reports of damaging wind or hail from the storms, with the possibility one or two intense storms thrown in there. 

As is almost always the case when our region is under any kind of storm threat, damaging straight line winds are the principal threat from Wednesday's potential storms. 

However, somewhat similar to back in March, when a tornado did touch down in Middlebury, there is an ever so slight chance that one or two storms could produce a brief twister.  I want to emphasis that a repeat of March is NOT likely, and chances of any kind of tornado anywhere in or near Vermont are very,  very  low. 

Still, as it stands now, there might be just enough spin the atmosphere to create a brief tornado in eastern New York and western New England,  Vermont included.  That would be true if any intense storms form ahead of a main line of storms that will be coming through ahead of a cold front.

Large, damaging hail could also come with the worst storms on Wednesday, but again, the biggest threat is straight-line winds. 

The storm forecast will surely be adjusted between now and tomorrow, so the areas forecast to be under threat from any kind of severe weather will shift from current forecasts. I'll of course have an update on this situation tomorrow morning. 

As the forecast stands now, you'll notice it getting warmer and by afternoon, somewhat more humid today as southwest winds begin to pump that summery air our way. 

It'll continue to get rather stuffy tonight. By tomorrow, humid air will be in place. The key to whether and how many severe storms we get Wednesday depends upon sunshine. If it's relatively sunny in the morning and early afternoon, that'll pump temperatures well into the 80s. 

Straight line winds from a severe thunderstorm caused this
damage in St. Albans, Vermont on July 30, 2019.
There could be instances of similar damage in Vermont
tomorrow if current forecasts hold. 

That warmth will help destabilize the atmosphere and prime it for severe storms. 

Very often when there's a severe weather threat around here,  a subtle line of extra instability, known as a pre-frontal trough, will come in from the west ahead of a cold front.  

That is expected to happen sometime tomorrow afternoon, and that will be the focus for most of the severe storms, if they occur. 

If current forecast holds, the severe storm threat will last into the evening, especially in eastern Vermont, which would be the last area in the Green Mountain State to see that line of boisterous storms. 

More storms will probably bubble up along the main cold front early tomorrow night, but few, if any will be severe. 

Under this slight risk, most of us won't see severe, damaging storms. But many of us will experience some gusty winds and lightning, so you'll want to be able to get quickly indoors if you see dark clouds approaching. 

Unfortunately, these storms don't look like big rainmakers. The more intense storms will have heavy downpours, but they won't last long.  Some areas that manage to avoid most of the storms will get almost no rain.

Too bad, we really need it. 

It'll get unseasonably cold behind this front. It means business.  It's possible there will be scattered areas of frost again Thursday night, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

A storm coming by to our south will largely miss us Friday.  It will probably throw some clouds our way, but little or no rain. Friday's clouds, combined with cold north winds, will prevent many parts of Vermont from even getting out of the 50s for highs on Friday. 

Friday's system will be out in the Great Plains Wednesday, creating a severe weather risk greater than our own in and around Nebraska.  It'll produce more severe weather and some tornadoes in an area centered around Missouri on Thursday. By the time this storm gets to the East Coast, it could produce another round of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast, but nothing anywhere near us. 

That's awfully chilly for this time of year but by no means totally out of whack for this time of year

The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty dry and sunny, with a slow warming trend for us here in northern New England.