Helene Aftermath Remains Scary As Death Toll Rises, Crisis In Appalachians, Tens Of Billions In Damage

Flood destruction from Helene in North Carolina. 

 The death toll keeps rising from wide-ranging Hurricane Helene, with the latest figure being around 52 people. 

Unfortunately, this toll will rise, as searches are continuing. This is especially true up in North Carolina and parts of Tennessee, where flood waters haven't yet subsided enough to do any thorough searches. 

Electronic road signs on the edge of the worst disaster zone read "DO NOT TRAVEL IN WESTERN NC" 

Areas of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee are the scariest as of Saturday morning and early afternoon. Pretty much all the roads in the region are closed and in many cases destroyed. That makes it hard to rescue people, and sadly, find bodies.

There are plenty of unconfirmed reports of people who climbed onto roofs, only to be swept away when the structures collapsed beneath them. There are so many back roads and hollows that nobody can get to, so we don't know what's going on.

In Asheville, most of the city had no electricity, internet service, cell service or running water. The news out of the southern Appalachians is going to keep getting more and more grim in the coming days, I fear. 

Emergency responders were overwhelmed, too. Buncombe County 911 fielded 3,300 calls within eight hours on Friday.

Meanwhile, damage assessments are only beginning to be thought of.  Moody's Analytics said it expects anywhere from $15 billion to $26 billion in damages from Helene, reports the Associated Press. I've seen other estimates that are even higher. 

Rainfall totals were extreme, to say the least. Busick, North Carolina reported 39.58 inches. Mount Mitchell State Park has 24.5 inches, Sumatra, Florida 15.5 inches and Dillard, Georgia 14 inches. 

Atlanta had 11.12 inches with 48 hours, the biggest two day total since record keeping began there in 1878.  Asheville, North Carolina collected over 12 inches of rain. 

Some radar estimates indicate 30 to 40 inches of rain fell on some of the Smokey Mountains. 

At one point, 4.3 million homes and businesses were without power due to Helene. 

Helene made landfall late Thursday night in the Big Bend area of Florida, an area that has become pretty luckless in terms of hurricanes lately. It was the third hurricane to strike there in the past 13 months, with Helene being the strongest of the bunch.

Three of the last five hurricanes to strike the United States hit the Big Bend, according to The Weather Channel.  

 The rain and wind have tapered off. Aside from possible dam failures, the risk of new flooding has largely ended, as the remains of Helene have finally faded to something tame. 

There's no threat of a new hurricane strike on the United States for at least a week. But it's still hurricane season, so the threat of another one of these monsters isn't over yet for the year. 

Videos:

This video shows a house floating downstream and collapsing in Asheville, North Carolina. Click on this link to view, or click on image below if you see it. 

Next video shows all the challenges of even trying to get around Boone and Blowing Rock, in the mountains of North Carolina, during Friday's Helene calamity. Again, click on this link to view or if you see image below click on that.

Drone video captured a bridge collapsing Friday in Greene County, Tennessee on Friday. As always, click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that. 

Getting Real In Florida: Helene Keeps Strengthening, Damage Already Reported

Satellite view of Hurricane Helene shortly
before noon today

 The all-important 11 a.m. update on Helene from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm continuing to strengthen as expected on its crash course toward landfall in northwest Florida this evening.  

Highest sustained winds have steadily increased from 90 mph at 4 a.m to 105 mph as of 11 a.m. We know Hurricane Helene will keep strengthening until landfall, but by how much?

The signs remain ominous. Satellite photos of the storm late this morning show it looking more symmetrical and circular than it did earlier today. 

Increasingly intense thunderstorms are getting better at wrapping fully around Helene's eye. The storm is about to move over the most favorable spot for strengthening on its path to the coast.

At this point, it doesn't matter a whole lot whether Hurricane Helene is a Category 3 (sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph) or a Category 4 (winds at 130 to 156 mph) at landfall. 

STORM SURGE

It's such a large storm that its biggest weapon through landfall is storm surge. This hurricane is covering a bigger area in the Gulf of Mexico than almost any storm there in history. That'll enable it to grab a lot of ocean water and push it onshore. 

That's why forecasters and are so worried that the storm surge in and near Florida's Big Bend area.  

Storm surges were already starting to affect the western coast of Florida by late morning. Worsening storm surges have been reported in Key West and Sarasota and near Tampa. Ocean water was also beginning to rise in the expected landfall zone as of late morning. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis this morning issued a last ditch plea for those who have not evacuated from the expected worst storm surge zone northwest Florida to do so now if not sooner, so to speak. There was still a short window of opportunity to flee ahead of what keeps being described as an "unsurvivable" storm surge.

DeSantis and others advised people not to flee north to Georgia, which will have its own problems with destructive winds and severe flooding.  Probably the best bet would be to head west toward Mississippi and Alabama, where the effects of the storm shouldn't be nearly as severe. 

WIND

So far tropical storm force winds have already started raking western Florida. Some outer rain bands have produced gusts to at least 50 mph. This is just a tiny foretaste of what's to come.

As we mentioned yesterday, Helene's size and fast forward pace will ensure high winds cover an enormous amount of real estate.

Near where Helene comes ashore, many homes and businesses will have their roofs blown off. Exterior walls could collapse under the weight of the wind, too. 

The winds dozens and hundreds of miles inland might not be catastrophic as what will happen along the coast. But the giant and highly populated parts of the Southeast will see widespread tree and power line damage. Plus a lot of houses and other buildings will suffer serious damage from trees falling on them. 

Winds in the rather forested Atlanta metro region and Asheville, North Carolina could gust to 65 mph.  Gusts will probably reach hurricane force in the higher elevations often southern Appalachians

Wind advisories are in effect for places as far inland from the Gulf of Mexico as southern Indiana, where gusts could reach 55 mph on Friday.

Power repair crews from across the nation are staging in and near the storm zone, ready to start getting the lights back on after the storm. But the process in many areas could take weeks. 

EXTREME FLOODING

Destructive inland flooding almost always happens after a hurricane makes landfall. But the flooding in this case looks like it will be much, much worse than usual. 

The downpours that started in the southern Appalachians yesterday due to a "predecessor rain event" has already caused one in 100 year type flooding in western North Carolina, the mountains of South Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Asheville, North Carolina has already had more than seven inches of rain since Wednesday morning, and that total could easily double by the time the storm is done. 

Some areas in the southern Appalachians have already received up to ten inches of rain, and another incredible 15 to 20 inches could fall in some spots. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has defined a high risk zone for severe flooding covering an area larger than I've ever seen before. It comprises a broad band from northwest Florida, through the length of central Georgia including Atlanta, and covering western North Carolina. 

These high risk designations are relatively rare to begin with. A high risk is declared on only about four percent of the days in a year. But high risk days comprise a third of all annual flood deaths and perhaps 80 percent of all flood related damage.

On top of all the flooding, numerous landslides are also likely in the southern Appalachians. 

RIPPLE EFFECTS

 The effects of Helene are already being felt far and wide. The number of canceled flights as of midmorning was around 1,000 and growing. 

Tampa International St. Pete-Clearwater International  and Tallahassee International airports are all shut down today. More might be added to the list. 

Funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency is depleted because the nation has had so many weather and climate disasters this year. This storm will be extraordinarily expensive, and cover a much wider area than most calamities. 

Recovery will be slow to say the least. To the point that it will probably have a slight but real drag on the U.S. economy.

 

Helene Continues Dangerous March Toward Florida Coast

Projected path of Hurricane Helene today and tonight.
That sort of yellow shading is where tropical storm
force winds are occurring. These were already starting
to brush southwest Florida before dawn. It's going
to be a long day in Florida. 

 Doing a quick update on dangerous Hurricane Helene early this morning ahead of an appointment, and I'll do a more comprehensive look at it when I'm back later this morning.  

The overall forecast for Hurricane Helene hasn't changed much overnight. As of 4 a.m. top winds with the storm were at 90 mph. 

The bottom line is Hurricane Helene is still expected to be a catastrophic major hurricane before and during its landfall in northwest Florida this evening, and continuing on into Friday with likely wild, extremely dangerous flooding and landslides in the southern Appalachians.

Storm surges are still expected to reach 20 feet above normal water levels in parts of coastal northwest Florida. 

I hope people have left this area. That kind of storm surge, combined with battering waves and extreme winds, is not survivable. 

Helene's forward speed is fast, so destructive winds will extend all the way inland to western North Carolina where a rare tropical storm warning is in effect.  

The weather is already kind of rough in much of Florida with rain bands from Helene. Tropical storm force winds were starting to sweep through coastal southwest Florida before dawn today. 

The game we're playing today is looking/hoping for ways to blunt Helene's potential power.  The more powerful the winds, the more destructive the storm, including its cataclysmic storm surge. 

Helene will move over a prime atmosphere to strengthen today. It'll be over record warm water and in a moist environment with little in the way of the type of upper level winds that would inhibit the storm's towering thunderstorms. 

That's why it's expected to strengthen quickly. 

Two things are sort of working to hopefully prevent Helene from reaching a most serious high end Category 4 or even Category 5.  It's moving forward so fast that it will run out of time to keep strengthening before it hits land.

Another interesting thing is its eyewall early this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. The eyewall is the most intense part of the storm. It's the ring of intense storms that surround the calm eye. 

Helene actually had two concentric eyewalls early today.  That could temporarily slow its strengthening. No guarantees, but we'll see.   

Even if Helene miraculously falls a little short of its forecast strength (don't count on it!), it's simply too late for anything to fall apart to prevent a major, life threatening disaster for swaths of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee. 

OTHER STORMS

Way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Isaac has formed. It's in the middle of nowhere, about a third of the way between North Carolina and Portugal.

It formed kind of far north for a tropical storm, and might even become a hurricane for a time. Eventually, as it heads east or northeast, Isaac will move over colder water and sputter out. It doesn't look like much of a threat to land. 

Another disturbance out there, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has a very good chance of soon becoming Tropical Storm Joyce.  It's too soon to say what, if any effect wannabe Joyce will have on any land areas. 

In the eastern Pacific, we have weird Tropical Storm John, soon to be Hurricane John.

It's weird because Hurricane John slammed into Mexico north of Acapulco a few days ago, then dissipated inland. But its remnants moved back over very warm Pacific Ocean water and quickly redeveloped. It's now expected to come ashore again in very roughly the same general area it did before.

The result will be catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides now through the end of the week in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

 

Wednesday Evening Helene Update: Even Worse Than I Told You Earlier Today

Hurricane Helene already looking like a monster in the
southern Gulf of Mexico early this evening. This
is increasingly looking like it will be a catastrophic
storm for Florida and many other parts of 
the Southeast now through Friday 

Earlier today, I told you that the news about Hurricane Helene is pretty much all bad.

As of this evening, the news is even worse. This will be a historic storm. 

Latest forecasts have Hurricane Helene getting even stronger at landfall than earlier predicted. Forecasts for the destructive storm surges are worse, too.

As of late afternoon, top winds in Hurricane Helene had increased a bit to 85 mph. The next 24 hours will probably bring a huge transition in the storm to an absolute monster.  

Top sustained winds at this time tomorrow could be up to 140 mph with higher gusts. 

That's right around the fastest observers have seen a hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Helene, like super hurricane Michael that hit the same general area in 2018, could well still be getting stronger right until it slams into the coast of northwest Florida Thursday evening. 

The storm surge forecast with Hurricane Helene is insane. Water could rise up to 20 feet above normal levels along the northwestern coast of Florida, which promises to cause massive, catastrophic destruction.

I hope everybody who's been told to evacuate the storm surge zone has done so, or will do so tonight. A storm surge like that is not survivable. 

The entire west and Gulf coasts of Florida will get hit by crushing storm surges. Even in southwest Florida, which is pretty far away from where Helene will come ashore. Record storm surges are expected across most of the Florida panhandle and down the coast all the way to Tampa. 

Usually, hurricane winds diminish quickly once the storm moves inland. 

But as noted in this morning's post, I talked about how the fast forward motion of Hurricane Helene would allow damaging winds to go much further inland than most hurricanes can muster. That prospect is even worse now. With top winds expected to be even stronger than earlier forecast at landfall, Helene will be able to maintain tropical force winds all the way to Asheville, North Carolina and a little beyond that. 

Tallahassee, Florida's state capitol, is a little inland and normally a little bit protected from the worst of hurricane winds, isn't so protected this time.

Depending on the exact track of Helene, that city could be devastated. In any event, areas hit by the core of Helene can expect extreme damage, with areas unlivable for weeks or months. Power outages will last weeks, too. 

The tropical storm watches for places as far north as northern Georgia and western parts of the Carolinas have been upgraded to warnings. Winds could gust to 70 mph at inland cities like Atlanta and Asheville, which is highly unusual for a tropical system. Full-fledged hurricane warnings extend as far inland as Macon, Georgia, which is 200 miles from the Gulf Coast. 

Inland flooding also continues to look catastrophic. It's been raining like hell today in much of the Southeast and southern Appalachians.  The intense rains from Helene will trigger massive flash floods and some mudslides through Georgia, and much of the Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. 

Here in Vermont, given the horrors we've seen from flooding this year, we are justified in calling ourselves lucky with Helene. This  hurricane will have pretty much no effect on the Green Mountain State. Maybe a few high, thin clouds this weekend. Maybe some very briefly moderate rain toward the middle of next week. That's it.

Back down in the hurricane zone, the only way we're going to avoid a huge loss of life is if everyone heeds evacuation warnings, and follows the advice of meteorologists and emergency managers.

If you know anyone who is in the path of Hurricane Helene and they're saying, "Meh, we've been through a lot of hurricanes, so we're not worried." 

Tell them to worry. A lot. This is no run-of-the-mill hurricane. 

It's Pretty Much All Bad News With Hurricane Helene

Satellite view of Hurricane Helene entering the southern
Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. It's a monster,
and getting stronger 

Hurricane Helene is about to become the nation's next multi-billion dollar disaster. 

As of late this morning, Helene, freshly upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane with top winds of 80 mph, was scooting northward past Cancun, Mexico and heading into a storm-welcoming Gulf of Mexico. 

Florida, of course, is most under the gun, since Helene is expected to make landfall sometime Thursday evening in the Big Bend area.

That's the part of northwest Florida that curves from the Gulf Coast panhandle southward to start forming the main Florida peninsula.

 It's not just that estimated landfall point that's in danger. This punishing storm is about to cause widespread destruction throughout much of the Southeast.

Everything about this storm so far is bad news, frankly.

WHY IT'S BAD

All the ingredients are there for Helene to explode in strength today and tonight as it makes its way northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures are at record high levels. The hotter the water, the better chances that a hurricane can grow strong, given the right atmospheric conditions.

Those atmospheric conditions are just right to nurture this rapidly growing hurricane.  Upper level winds are light, so there's nothing up there to disrupt the swirling thunderstorms that construct the storm. 

Sometimes, areas of dry air just outside a hurricanes' circulation gets pulled into the storm, weakening it. There's really no drier air surrounding Helene to threaten its growth rate. 

High above Helene is something called upper level divergence.  That means air is moving outward away from the storm and its path. That allows air in Helene to rise into all the more tall thunderstorms, helping it get stronger. 

This combination of factors are conspiring to make Helene a true, dreadful danger, with a bunch of hazards, some of which we explain next:

STORM SURGE

Storm surges are usually the most destructive part of a hurricane. The ocean, fortified with huge, battering waves, invades coastal communities with feet of water.  Pretty much everything in their path is destroyed, and if you're caught in a hurricane storm surge, chances are you won't survive. 

That's why there's so many evacuations going on in coastal western and northern Florida. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are in effect in large swaths of 13 Florida counties, including heavily populated Sarasota and Charlotte counties. 

The path, size and strength of Helene are all conspiring to make a near worst case scenario for storm surges in Florida. 

Hurricane Helene's projected path as of noon today.
Note that the storm's effects will be felt far
beyond the center of its path.

Helene is large in area, so it can stir up and push a lot of Gulf Water toward the coast. 

Where and just east of where Helene comes ashore, the storm surge could go as high as 15 feet. Which is really bad considering the land doesn't rise much in elevation near the shoreline. 

Helene will go west of Tampa, meaning the winds will come from the south.  Those winds, along with the coastline's orientation, will shove a LOT of water up into Tampa Bay. 

Storm surges there are expected to be in the five to eight foot range, which would flood thousands of buildings. 

Storm surge warnings are up for the entire west coast of Florida. That involves an incredible amount of property, so just the storm surge, never mind anything else, could cause $1 billion or more in damage. 

WIND

Top winds with Hurricane Helene at landfall could be 125 mph or greater - a major Category 3 storm. There's a fairly decent chance that Helene's rapid intensification could over-perform, creating a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 to 156 mph.  

There's even a quite low but not zero chance it could turn into a Category 5 - the worst kind - with winds of at least 157 mph. 

Helen's large size will also mean strong, damaging winds will hit an unusually large area for a hurricane.

As the Washington Post explains:

"....its size could be in the top 10 percent of hurricanes observed in the region, according to the National Hurricane Center. That means its surge and wind impacts will be greater more more wide-reaching that typical.

Tropical storm force winds could extend more than 200 miles from the center, and tropical storm warnings even extend into Miami, far from where Helene will come ashore. Tropical storm watches also stretch into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Helene is forecast to barrel inland at high speeds, allowing severe winds to penetrate much farther inland than typical for a hurricane across eastern Georgia. It could be Georgia's most serious weather event in quite awhile, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph possible over southeastern portions of the state."

Damaging winds will probably punch even further north. Just before noon, tropical storm watches were extended northward to  encompassing all of Georgia, including metro Atlanta,  and the high elevations of the western Carolinas. 

All this areas could see winds of 58 to as much as 80 mph with locally higher gusts. Soggy ground combined with the high winds will make lots of trees in these heavily forested areas topple. Some of them will surely crush parts or all of houses, buildings, power lines and other structures.  

FLOODING

Intense inland flooding looks inevitable through huge swaths of Florida, Georgia and the southern Appalachians. 

Helene as of noon wasn't even anywhere close to Georgia and the southern Appalachians and already serious flooding is breaking out there. 

They're experiencing a classic and dangerous predecessor rain event or PRE.  These happen when deep moisture is drawn far northward from the developing hurricane and that moisture smacks into a stalled weather front or mountains or a combination. These usually happen more or less 500 or more miles north often actual hurricane.  

The southern Appalachians have already had two to five inches of rain in the past couple of day, and expect downpours that will deposit another three to six inches of rain for the rest of the day. Flash flooding was already ongoing near the Tennessee/North Carolina border this morning, and it will get worse this afternoon.

Then, by Thursday and Friday, the actual storm center of Helene will pass through the region. By later Friday, six inches to as much as a foot of rain, possibly with locally higher amounts will drown the southern Appalachians, This will cause catastrophic flash floods in the steep terrain, along with landslides.

You surely remember how this type of downpour, with water rushing off of Vermont's steep mountains, caused the catastrophic floods in the summers of 2023 and 2024.  The southern Appalachians will experience something like that, except maybe even worse. 

TORNADOES

Hurricanes that come ashore often spin off a number of tornadoes, especially near and east of the storm track.  Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas are under a tornado threat Thursday and Friday. 

BOTTOM LINE

Unless something unexpected happens, this is frankly a mess.  The forecasts have been consistent, and there's not a lot of spread in the various computer models.  Sure, there will be surprises, but nobody should be shocked that Helene will create yet another huge path of destruction. 

Climate change, by the way, isn't "causing" Helene. But the extreme heat content of the Gulf of Mexico waters, likely brought on by climate change, are contributing to making this hurricane worse than it would otherwise be.

Also, a warmer world can carry more atmospheric moisture than a cooler world.  With or without climate change, Helene would cause a lot of flooding in the Southeast.  But perhaps because of climate change, the flooding could be more intense than if the same weather situation hit decades ago.

I'm really hoping the millions of people caught in the crosshairs of this storm heed all evacuation warnings, and do what emergency managers tell them to do. 

This one is a pretty scary one, folks.

 

Tornado Tragedy Update: At Least 9 Dead. Winter Tornadoes Becoming More Common

This day care center with 70 children inside was
destroyed by the tornado in Selma, Alabama. Miraculously,
one child suffered minor injuries and the rest were
unscathed as day care workers hustled the kids
into protected areas of the building. 

 This is a bad start to the year in terms of tornadoes.

That outbreak of twisters Thursday in the Southeast killed at least nine people and left a long trail of destruction from Mississippi to Kentucky to Georgia. 

A large chunk of the  damage and deaths were created by one long-lasting, intense supercell thunderstorm that traveled roughly 500 miles from Louisiana into Georgia, spitting out several tornadoes along the way.  One of those tornadoes mauled Selma, Alabama.

Selma,  known for its civil rights history, suffered widespread damage through several neighborhoods, including part of downtown,  just as the Martin Luther King Jr. weekend got underway. 

Seven of the deaths occurred in a town about 40 miles northeast of Selma, when that same supercell unleashed another tornado there.   

Some of those tornadoes that thunderstorm produced were quite strong. The one responsible for the deaths northeast of Selma was an EF-3, meaning it had winds of 136 to 165 mph. The Selma tornado was deemed an EF-2, with winds of 111 to 135 mph.

The tornadoes extended into Georgia. The town of Griffin was hit hard, with several homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. News video showed the roof of the Hobby Lobby store in Griffin torn off.

 Wintertime tornado outbreaks happen from time to time in the South. The region's proximity to the Gulf of Mexico means under some conditions, warm, very humid air can flood the Southeast, even in the dead of winter.  That sets the stage for severe weather if a storm system approaches.

 This one was one of the stronger January swarms of twisters that I can remember in both the number of tornadoes and number of deaths for the opening month of the year. At last check, there were 53 reports of tornadoes in seven states on Thursday. 

But wasn't the worst January outbreak in U.S. history. On average, the United States sees about 36 tornadoes during the month of January. So on Thursday, we had about a month's worth in one day. 

In January, 1999, though, a total of 212 twisters hit the U.S. the most on record for the first month of the year. 

The deadliest January tornado outbreak since at least 1950 struck Mississippi, Kentucky and Tennessee on January 23, 1969, killing 32 people. 

A January, 2017 tornado outbreak led to 20 deaths in the Southeast.   

On average, about 80 people die in tornadoes yearly, but there's a lot of variability from year to year. Given that the bulk of these deaths normally occur between April and June, we're off to a bad start in 2023.

Recent winter outbreaks, including this one, might have been made worse by unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn is caused by climate change. Data shows there has been an upward trend in January tornadoes in the United States.

As I mentioned, tornado outbreaks need warm, humid air to develop. If the Gulf is warmer than usual, the air can in turn become warmer and hold more moisture. The warmer, wetter air can supply additional fuel for potential tornado swarms. 

The link between increased winter tornadoes and climate change is still under a bit of dispute, but anecdotally, things are getting worse with tornadoes in the winter.

Two major twister swarms within a week in December, 2021 in the South and Midwest. The first of them on December 10 killed 80 people in and near Kentucky. The second, on December 15, part of a strange and super strong Plains storm system, unleashed a record breaking 120 tornadoes across the Midwest, an area that almost never sees winter twisters.  .

In recent months, destructive tornadoes swarms have struck in mid-December, killing three people in the South. Nearly 50 mostly weak tornadoes hit on January 2-4 in the South. 

We might not be done with this January's tornados just yet. It's possible more severe weather will break out in the Gulf Coast states during the middle of the upcoming week.

Tornadoes, Severe Storms Slam Southeast

Large tornado on the ground near Selma,
Alabama today. Photo via Twitter,
@wsfa12news

 Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms over-performed in the southeastern United States this afternoon, causing some pretty intense destruction in some communities, especially in Alabama. 

One especially strong, long lasting tornado roared across central Alabama in the late morning and early afternoon.

The historic city of Selma, Alabama was hit particularly hard, with widespread damage reported on the northern part of downtown and across much of the western part of town, AL.com reported. 

A storm chaser in Selma said the damage path was up to a mile wide.

Reports are just coming in, and the scene was still chaotic as of this mid-afternoon, so we don't have news of any deaths or injuries. 

Television station WSFA was reporting at least one person trapped in debris and another person possibly missing. Residents of Selma were told to stay home and avoid the damage area.

Video and photos on social media showed numerous houses in and around Selma without roofs, collapsed buildings, and what appears to be an out of control fire. Other video showed a large tornado moving through the area. 

The tornado was well-warned, as the National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama warned residents to take cover in advance of the "confirmed, large and destructive tornado."

The supercell responsible for the main tornado moved into western Georgia before 4 p.m.,prompting additional tornado warnings, along with the threat of ferocious straight-line winds and large hail. 

Another radar-confirmed tornado was sweeping through parts of Atlanta, Georgia shortly before 4 p.m. today. 

Other possible tornadoes were reported in Mississippi and Kentucky.  Baseball sized hail struck parts of western Kentucky in the pre-dawn hours. 

Before 4 p.m. tornado watches were extended eastward to cover much of Georgia and northwestern Florida.  

Severe tornado damage in Selma, Alabama. Photo by 
Marissa Giles, via Twitter @Spann

The severe weather was more extensive than forecasts from a few days earlier suggested. But the right conditions came together to unleash the dangerous storms.

Tornado outbreaks do sometimes occur in the Gulf Coast states and Southeast during the middle of winter. They are close to a key ingredient for severe weather - very warm and very wet air from the Gulf of Mexico.

If a dynamic winter storm passes by to the north and west, it will pull that toasty, humid air into the Southeast. Then, as the parent storm's cold front approaches, changes in wind speed and direction can create supercells and tornadoes.  

The parent storm's cold front will exit the southeastern coast later tonight and tomorrow morning, and that will end the tornado threat in this region. 

 

First We Had Tornado Pickup Truck Guy, Now We Have Tornado Clubhouse Guy

Cliff Horton had this chaotic view
of the building he was leaning
against disintegrating in a 
Georgia tornado last week. 

I guess this is turning out to be the spring of narrow tornado escapes.  

First we had the teenage in the pickup truck that got tossed violent around by a tornado, and then the teen blithely drove away from the chaos.

Now we have Cliff Horton, the Golf Clubhouse Tornado Guy. 

Horton was accidentally locked out of a the Black Creek Golf Course clubhouse in Ellabell, Georgia when a powerful tornado approached last Tuesday.  .

The National Weather Service office in Charleston, South Carolina said the tornado reached maximum strength around the golf course, with peak winds of at least 165 mph, which would make it a high end EF-3 tornado.  The NWS office said they want to investigate more to determine if it was actually an even stronger EF-4.

The tornado killed one person and injured several others. So yes, this was an extremely dangerous situation.  And Horton should absolutely, positively NOT been outside.  But as I said, he was accidentally locked out. He just had to take his chances. 

You can watch Horton's experience by clicking on this hyperlink to view the video. 

The striking thing about Horton is how amazingly he held his composure during the tornado. At the very least, I'd desperately need a new pair of pants if I had experienced the same thing. 

First you see the tornado knocking over several trees in the middle distance across a large lawn. "That is not good," Horton says in his southern drawl, figuratively putting on his Captain Obvious hat. 

Suddenly, you see winds start screaming from behind him, shredding a large oak tree. Then a large wave of debris races into view from above and crashes onto the ground in front of him, with many pieces swirling violently in front of him.

We hear Horton say "There goes the roof!" in a tone of voice you might use if you saw your cat knocked your glass off the coffee table for the umpteenth time. 

After the tornado passes, Horton surveys the field of debris, and says what all of us might. "Ho-Lee Crap!"  .

Unlike the Texas Tornado Teen, Horton has so far not made a round of media interviews, so I don't know what he's thinking now that we're a few days after the storm. 

Horton was extremely lucky because the part of the tornado that shredded the golf clubhouse came from the direction behind him, which meant presumably there were a few walls between Horton and the direction the wind was coming from.

When the roof disintegrated, it flew over him, crashing in the yard in front of him. It appears any debris  smashing through the building was blocked by the walls behind him. 

Horton didn't mean to be out in that tornado. But word to the wise: Don't try this at home!  Horton got lucky. Pretty much anybody else who is out in such a storm very likely wouldn't be. 

Here's another look at Horton's videos from USAToday. If you don't see the video below, click on this hyperlink. Otherwise, click on the YouTube logo in the image below to watch.