Wednesday Evening Helene Update: Even Worse Than I Told You Earlier Today

Hurricane Helene already looking like a monster in the
southern Gulf of Mexico early this evening. This
is increasingly looking like it will be a catastrophic
storm for Florida and many other parts of 
the Southeast now through Friday 

Earlier today, I told you that the news about Hurricane Helene is pretty much all bad.

As of this evening, the news is even worse. This will be a historic storm. 

Latest forecasts have Hurricane Helene getting even stronger at landfall than earlier predicted. Forecasts for the destructive storm surges are worse, too.

As of late afternoon, top winds in Hurricane Helene had increased a bit to 85 mph. The next 24 hours will probably bring a huge transition in the storm to an absolute monster.  

Top sustained winds at this time tomorrow could be up to 140 mph with higher gusts. 

That's right around the fastest observers have seen a hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Helene, like super hurricane Michael that hit the same general area in 2018, could well still be getting stronger right until it slams into the coast of northwest Florida Thursday evening. 

The storm surge forecast with Hurricane Helene is insane. Water could rise up to 20 feet above normal levels along the northwestern coast of Florida, which promises to cause massive, catastrophic destruction.

I hope everybody who's been told to evacuate the storm surge zone has done so, or will do so tonight. A storm surge like that is not survivable. 

The entire west and Gulf coasts of Florida will get hit by crushing storm surges. Even in southwest Florida, which is pretty far away from where Helene will come ashore. Record storm surges are expected across most of the Florida panhandle and down the coast all the way to Tampa. 

Usually, hurricane winds diminish quickly once the storm moves inland. 

But as noted in this morning's post, I talked about how the fast forward motion of Hurricane Helene would allow damaging winds to go much further inland than most hurricanes can muster. That prospect is even worse now. With top winds expected to be even stronger than earlier forecast at landfall, Helene will be able to maintain tropical force winds all the way to Asheville, North Carolina and a little beyond that. 

Tallahassee, Florida's state capitol, is a little inland and normally a little bit protected from the worst of hurricane winds, isn't so protected this time.

Depending on the exact track of Helene, that city could be devastated. In any event, areas hit by the core of Helene can expect extreme damage, with areas unlivable for weeks or months. Power outages will last weeks, too. 

The tropical storm watches for places as far north as northern Georgia and western parts of the Carolinas have been upgraded to warnings. Winds could gust to 70 mph at inland cities like Atlanta and Asheville, which is highly unusual for a tropical system. Full-fledged hurricane warnings extend as far inland as Macon, Georgia, which is 200 miles from the Gulf Coast. 

Inland flooding also continues to look catastrophic. It's been raining like hell today in much of the Southeast and southern Appalachians.  The intense rains from Helene will trigger massive flash floods and some mudslides through Georgia, and much of the Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. 

Here in Vermont, given the horrors we've seen from flooding this year, we are justified in calling ourselves lucky with Helene. This  hurricane will have pretty much no effect on the Green Mountain State. Maybe a few high, thin clouds this weekend. Maybe some very briefly moderate rain toward the middle of next week. That's it.

Back down in the hurricane zone, the only way we're going to avoid a huge loss of life is if everyone heeds evacuation warnings, and follows the advice of meteorologists and emergency managers.

If you know anyone who is in the path of Hurricane Helene and they're saying, "Meh, we've been through a lot of hurricanes, so we're not worried." 

Tell them to worry. A lot. This is no run-of-the-mill hurricane. 

Debby Set To Cause Florida/Southeast Disaster; Lots of Questions Remain About Forecast Here In Vermont

Tropical Storm Debby had "that look" on satellite photos
this morning that suggested it wants to intensify
pretty fast before making landfall in northwestern
Florida sometime on Monday. 

 Yesterday's Wannabe Debby near Cuba is this morning's strengthening Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles west of Tampa. 

I decided to wait until late this morning to post, so I could get the most updated information on the tropical storm.  Debby's top sustained winds had increased to 65 mph by late this morning. It's getting close to becoming a hurricane. 

Debby is taking full advantage of extremely warm waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico so that it is getting stronger pretty quickly and will be a hurricane when it makes landfall in what is known as Florida's Big Bend on Monday. 

That Big Bend is the area in northwest Florida where the peninsula bends and transitions to the Florida panhandle.

Anyway, the forecast looks very sure on its path to that landfall, and there's even a chance it could be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. (That would mean sustained winds of at least 96 mph). 

After that, forecasters have serious questions as to what Debby will do next, but significant to maybe catastrophic flooding  (here we go again!) is likely somewhere in the Southeast.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we have our own forecasts questions, unrelated, at least for now to Tropical Storm Debby. More on that further down.

DEBBY

This is becoming an unpleasant trend.  Climate change and other factors have led to record  or near record high water temperatures in most of the areas where hurricanes form and grow. This is jet fuel for hurricanes, and we keep seeing hurricanes become monsters as a result.

That's why Hurricane Beryl earlier this summer managed to become a Category 5 beast in the Caribbean. It's why Hurricane Michael back in 2018 was able to slam into roughly the same spot in Florida  as a Category 5 calamity that Debby will hit. The hot water is one major reason why we had so many other intense hurricanes in recent years.     

The saving grace with Debby is it won't have all that much time over water where it can strengthen. It only has about 24 hours to do so. But a lot can change in a day, so we'll really have to watch the intensity of this thing.

Debby already had those sustained winds of 65 mph late this morning, as mentioned.As you can see in the visible satellite photo of Debby this morning it has "that look" that suggests it really wants to turn powerful. The inner core of the storm still wasn't completely well organized as of early this morning. How fast that core gets its act together will determine how strong it gets. 

One rather ominous sign is that Debby was showing signs of forming a central eye late this morning, indicating that its organizational skills are pretty good. 

In any event, Florida's Big Bend can expect damaging winds, a ferocious, destructive storm surge and torrential rains.  The storm surge could be made bigger by two factors: Debby's overall size is pretty big, which means it can push more water into a storm surge. Also, that bend in the coastline along that part of Florida can compress incoming water from the left and right, causing higher surges.

That's why mandatory evacuations are ongoing today in areas near where Debby will make landfall.

That torrential rain will become the main, worrisome feature of Debby in the coming days. 

Uncertain Path, Big Rain Dump

The trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that is steering Debby toward Florida's Big Bend is dissipating and moving on, which will leave very little to push Debby in any particular direction after it makes landfall. 

When hurricanes make landfall, their strong winds quickly collapse into much lighter breezes. But these systems generate torrential rainfall for days after landfall. That's part of the reason we had a destructive flood here in Vermont back on July 10-11.  The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which had made landfall in Texas days earlier, was able to contribute torrential downpours to a stalled weather front over Vermont. 

One problem is we don't know if the center of Debby will linger inland over the Southeast, or manage to  make its way just off the coast of Georgia or South Carolina. Either way, destructive flooding from inland downpours is inevitable. But if Debby goes off the coast, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen before moving back inland. 

No matter what happens, Debby is going to be a big problem in the Southeast starting today and going right through the week. 

In fact, due in part to Debby, more than enough rain to cause flooding is a decent bet at various times from now through next weekend anywhere from Florida to Maine. Which leads us to talk about Vermont. 

Spoiler: It's not dire, but we do have to watch the weather.

VERMONT FORECAST

The humidity grinds on. We are now on Day 6 in a row at Burlington in which the temperature failed to dip below 70 degrees. Saturday was the 14th day this year in Burlington which made it to 90 degrees. That's a tie for seventh most in a year. 

The Lake Champlain lake temperature was bath water this morning - 82 degrees which has to be a record high. 

We have 24 hours of oppressive humidity left in Vermont before the long awaited big change comes. Maybe a little more than 24 hours south. But it's coming. 

Until then, we have the ever-present risk of torrential showers and thunderstorms. They're always a risk in this kind of weather. 

Seems like every thunderstorm makes you worry, because we're spooked by the twin flash floods of July, and the other floods we endured last year. 

One storm popped up near Bolton and Huntington last evening that lingered for a bit. But luckily, it moved on and weakened just before it could cause major trouble.  I noticed a flood advisory for a corner of far southwestern Vermont early this morning, and locally  heavy rain was going on in spots in far southern parts of the state as of mid-morning.

More hit and miss storms are a good bet this afternoon and evening. Once again, many places won't see anything. Other places will get a quick drenching but otherwise not a big deal. But isolated places once again face the risk of microbursts, which would cause small pockets of wind damage, and isolated flash floods. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk (level one of five) of severe storms today. Southern Vermont is under a marginal risk (level one of four) of flash flooding today. I think northern Vermont has a very low, but not zero chance of one or two flash floods. NOT a panic moment, for sure. 

Monday

The risk of severe storms and flash flooding will rise somewhat in Vermont as that long-awaited cold front comes in. It'll arrive early enough north of Route 2 to suggest the risk of severe storms is very, very low. We are under a marginal risk of flash flooding in all but far southern Vermont due to some downpours expected along the front.  

But in central and southern Vermont, there is the risk of severe storms. Morning sunshine will increase instability before the cold front pushes in, so we'll have time to see scattered severe storms to develop. Those areas are under level 2 risk of severe storms. 

Although rain might linger into the evening, we're still expecting the start of the longest period of coolish, low humidity days we've seen in quite some time.  Tuesday through Thursday look great, though some minor questions in the forecast mean there's a non-zero chance of light showers Tuesday, and maybe Thursday. 

Beyond that, we have HUGE question marks. During our break from the oppressive weather, that deep heat and moisture will be lurking not too far to our south.  It could surge back northwards at least briefly toward the end of the week. Plus nobody has any idea what Debby or its remnants might do. 

So stay tuned on that.  

The Nation's Weather Is Wayyyy Off The Rails. Again. Details Here

Extremely rare snow on the coast of northern California
at the Carson Mansion in Eureka.
Photo via Twitter by Kenneth Pinkham. 

 The weather here in Vermont lately in the grand scheme of things was only moderately interesting this week.

 In many other places around the United States, it was off the charts wild. It makes Vermont look like the calmest oasis in the world. 

Temperatures in the nation Thursday ranged a whopping 137 degrees, from 35 degrees in Lyman, Wyoming to 102 in Falcon Lake, Texas. 

Plenty of areas are seeing weather not seen in decades or ever.  Let's go over the highlight reel. 

CALIFORNIA/WEST COAST

In sunny southern California, it's neither sunny, nor warm.  They're bracing for an epic, very oddly cold storm, the worst of which is sweeping in today and Saturday.

Up and down the California, high elevation highways are already closed, including the notorious Grapevine, which is busy stretch of Interstate 5 between Los Angeles County and the San Joaquin Valley. 

The high elevation stretch of the Grapevine sometimes gets shut down in the winter by snow, especially along a small section whose elevation rises to 4,000 feet.   This time, though, it's expected to be much worse up there since snow levels are expected to fall below 2,000 feet, which encompasses much more of the highway 

The Grapevine section of I-5 closed at 1:30 Friday morning, and officials have no idea when it will re-open. It was snowing hard at the 3,800 foot level of Interstate 5 this morning. 

Some snow, small hail and ice pellets have already pinged down in areas of southern California that haven't seen frozen precipitation in a decade or more. School children in Pasadena rushed outside to enjoy the spectacle of pea sized hail. 

A little snow dusted the famous Hollywood sign in L.A. early this morning. Even more snow might accumulate around that sign Friday night or early Saturday.

The cold storm is also volatile. The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles issued its first tornado warning in three years Friday morning. It was for an area southwest of Santa Maria. As of this writing, it's unknown if a tornado actually touched down. 

Several normally balmy California cities had record low high temperatures Thursday. These included 52 in Palm Springs, 54 in Newport Beach and 57 in Anaheim. Los Angeles also had a record low minimum of 41 degrees Thursday. We've had low temperatures at that level a couple times this winter in Vermont. 

Incredibly, a blizzard warning is up for mountains in Los Angeles County. (These mountains are as high as 8 to 9 thousand feet).

I was mistaken the other day.  This isn't the first time the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles has issued a blizzard warning for its forecast area. It's the second. But Thursday evening, the National Weather Service office in San Diego issued its first ever blizzard warning for the San Bernardino mountains northeast of the city. 

The lowest elevations in southern California are seeing heavy rain.  People have already been evacuated from portions of Ventura County as the rains are expected to cause flash floods, mudslides and debris flows. 

Further north, snow fell on the East Bay hills near San Francisco for the first time in gawd knows how many years. Higher elevations in those hills could see even  heavier snow tonight. Snow levels early today in the area were as low as 700 feet. Most areas in the Bay Area had rain, with embedded thunderstorms, hail and sleet.  

Rare snow also fell at the famed Hearst Castle in San Simeon, California. The castle is no more than 1,000 feet from the Pacific Ocean beach on a hill about half way between San Francisco and Los Angeles. 

Portland Oregon unexpectedly received 10.8 inches of snow Wednesday night, its second largest snowstorm on record.  "Worst case scenario" forecasts ahead of that storm only called for two inches at most. The surprise storm hit during rush hour, and people were stranded on snow clogged roads around Portland for seven hours or more. 

With clear skies and snow on the ground, Portland also reached a record low of 25 degrees Thursday morning. 

Further south, KTVU reported an inch or two of snow in Woodside, California, near Alice's restaurant. That area gets snow on average perhaps once a decade.

Several record lows were set out west, including 11 below in Denver and 13 below in Boulder, Colorado. Rawlins, Wyoming dipped to 25 below, exceeding the previous record low by a full 10 degrees. 

SOUTHEASTERN HEAT

While the West Coast shivered, it was summertime this week in the southeastern quarter of the United States. 

While some cold records are being broken in the West, the Southeast onslaught of record heat is absolutely astounding. 

Amazingly early blossoms this week in 
Washington DC. Photo via Twitter 
by Brad Herson

I don't know where to begin with all the heat records broken, especially Wednesday and Thursday. 

On Wednesday, Atlanta reached its all time high for the month of February at 81 degrees. Thursday, the low temperature in Atlanta was 69 degrees, the warmest low for any date in any February. That low temperature is about normal in Atlanta toward the end of June. 

According to @extremetemps on Twitter , also known by his real name Maximiliano Herrera, this was  "the harshest winter heat wave in history." He backs that up with a litany of all time new February record high temperatures:  

 During Thursday afternoon, most of North Carolina was in the low to mid 80s while one town in the state reached 87 degrees. Pensacola Florida reached 83 degrees for a new February high temperature. 

The heat extended down into Cuba, where Santa Lucia reached 95. That exceeded both the record for the months of February and January. Havana, Cuba, was close behind with an all-time February high this week of 94 degrees. 

The all-time heat records also expanded westward to Mississippi and Alabama.  All time February record highs were set in these Mississippi cities. Columbia (88); Tupelo (87) Laurel (86); and in Alabama, Muscle Shoals (86) and Haleyville (82)  

Nashville, Tennessee, also reached its all-time February high of 85 degrees. Previously, the earliest it had ever been 85 degrees in Nashville was on March 12, 1967.

Thursday, the temperature at Reagan National Airport in Washington DC zoomed up from 68 degrees to 81 degrees between 2 and 3 p.m Thursday. 

Magnolias are already blooming in front of the White House. Green leaves popped open as far north as Philadelphia. 

More ominously, peach and other crops are blooming in the Southeast, weeks prematurely. It will only take one powerful, but seasonable cold front in March to wipe out as much as  $1 billion in crops.  

This is a similar or even worse set up than 2017. That year, another warm February led to a winter storm in March  that killed 85 percent of South Carolina's peach crop and 80 percent of Georgia's blueberry harvest. Total frost damage in March, 2017 was around $1 billion. 

The region is set up for another agricultural disaster this year. Warm, pleasant weather is most definitely not a good thing. 

ELSEWHERE AND OUTLOOK

Ice storms in the Midwest and southern Ontario this week cut power to as many as a million people. 

The ice in Michigan caused the most widespread power outages in that state since a wild squall line of thunderstorms in August, 2021. At one point last night, more than a half million homes and businesses were without power due to the ice.

Parts of the upper Midwest are still digging out from 12 to 20 inches of windblown snow amid nasty wind chills. 

A shopping mall parking garage in Wisconsin partly collapsed under the weight of snow and ice, but thankfully nobody was hurt. 

Forecasters are now worried that the storm in California, as it moves east, could spawn a severe weather and tornado outbreak Sunday and Monday in the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast.

Although the nations' weather will become somewhat less extreme over the coming days, the same basic weather pattern should remain intact through at least the first week in March. That means more cold storminess in the West, and more summer like warmth in the Southeast.

For us here in Vermont, we're kind of in a sweet spot.  For the next week or two, expect active, but not extreme weather. That means temperatures more or less near normal, and frequent precipitation, but nothing super heavy. 

Wednesday Morning Update: A Weird Stormy Nation. Snow/Sleet To Hit Us In Vermont

A very colorful National Weather Service map means
a very stormy day for the U.S. All those pinks and
reds from Oregon to Maine are winter storm
and blizzard warnings. 

 As advertised, it's as stormy and weird in the U.S. as it can get as a strange weather pattern of very cold air in the Southwest, with unprecedented warm to hot air in the Southeast has become established. 

That kind of huge contrast always leads to storminess and that's definitely happening now. Vermont update is below, but I have to pause and look at how bizarre the weather is once again in the United States. 

STORMY, WEIRD NATION

The weather set up was  already getting volatile, judging from the strong storms and likely tornado in Mercer County, New Jersey on Tuesday that damaged a number of buildings. The National Weather Service will make a determination later today whether to confirm the storm as a twister.

A continuous line of winter storm warnings extends from eastern Nevada to coastal Maine, at least if you include the Canadian version of a winter storm warning over southern Ontario and Quebec. 

Blizzard warnings are embedded in that band in parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota. 

An  ice storm is still on deck in a long narrow strip from central Iowa, through the southern parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ontario, Canada and into western New York. 

Some severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado might occur today in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, though luckily this does not look like it will be an intense outbreak. 

In California, Arizona and Nevada, high winds will buffet the region to make the unusually cold air feel even chillier. A cold storm in southern California in the coming days will produce some lowland flooding, and snow as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. That means the famous Hollywood sign could be covered in snow. People there have not seen snow that low in decades.

A rare blizzard warning is up for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Up to a foot of snow could fall at the 2,000 foot level, which is, again, incredibly low. Up to five feet of snow could pile up in the summits above 4,000 feet by Monday. I believe this is the first ever blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, a huge area of the Southeast is set for all time record high temperatures for February. Readings of 80 degrees or above are forecast Thursday as far north as Washington DC.

VERMONT UPDATE

The Wednesday morning updated snowfall prediction map
from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Areas north of Route 4 are expecting a solid 6-12 inches.
Less in southern Vermont due to a mix with sleet. 

With all these contrasts and that volatility, it's inevitable that we'll have a storm.  It's been advertised all week, and it does arrive tonight. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning roughly north of Route 4.  A winter weather advisory is up along and south of Route 4. As expected, we've seen some minor adjustments in the snow totals. It looks like most places north of Route 4 can expect a solid 6 to 12 inches out of this. 

Areas to the south will see a bunch of sleet mix in especially as we had toward dawn tomorrow. That will keep accumulates down to four or five inches. 

On the bright side, the layer of warm air aloft that's producing the mixed precipitation is thick. That means rain will re-freeze on the way down to become sleet. There won't be much freezing rain, which is liquid and freezes on contact into a glaze when it hits the surface. 

It looks like the snow will start in southwestern Vermont at roughly 7 p.m. tonight, spread into central Vermont by around 9 p.m. and cover the north between 10 p.m. and midnight. 

The first wave of snow, and southern sleet will be the heaviest, coming through mostly between midnight and dawn Thursday.  A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during this. It will be challenging on the roads tomorrow morning, so I expect a lot of school closings and delays and trouble on the highways. 

I still see  a risk of a forecast bust with this. If the warm air aloft pushes further north than expected - which might happen - the heavier sleet would get further north into at least central Vermont, too. 

Most of Thursday will be in a sort of lull with light snow and sleet falling most of the day, but not amounting to a huge amount. The sleet mix looks like it might make it at least as far north as Route 2. 

Another wave of precipitation, not as big as the first, will come through later Thursday and Thursday night. This wave could have a little freezing rain with it in southern Vermont.  Northern Vermont will probably get another few inches of snow,  Some sleet might mix in across parts of the north Thursday evening, but that will trend more toward snow overnight. 

This storm will also end a remarkable 18 consecutive February days in Burlington that got above freezing. (Though it was below 32 degrees most of Wednesday, it was in the mid-30s just after midnight).

You'll be digging out in some real cold air on Friday. Highs will only be in the low teens with temperatures below zero in most places Friday night and early Saturday. 

A small storm will fling a few snowflakes at us amid milder temperatures Sunday. Another larger, messy storm seems likely Monday night and Tuesday. 

   

Tornadoes Slam Southeast; Up Here We'll See Quite A Lot Of Rain

This maelstrom is a still from a video taken by Cliff
Horton. He was accidentally locked out of a golf
clubhouse when a tornado hit it. He was on the porch
w

 For the second day in a row, tornadoes slammed parts of the southern United States, this time focusing mostly on Georgia and South Carolina. 

Today will be a tornado three-peat in the same area of the nation. 

The storm systems spinning off all these twisters will affect us here in Vermont. Not with tornadoes, but with a bunch of rain.  More on that in a bit.  

At least one person died in Pembroke, Georgia in a tornado.   At least three others were injured in Allendale, Georgia. Two hours after that tornado hit Allendale, a second tornado warning was issued for the same city as another storm dropped a possible twister on the town. 

There were also some close calls. Never do what this guy did;  He had been golfing, apparently, but accidentally got locked out of the clubhouse. So he watched the tornado from the porch.  Pretty terrifying!  The man survived with few if any injuries, but don't try this at home, kiddies! 

In all, there were 54 preliminary reports of tornadoes from Mississippi to South Carolina on Tuesday. 

That area of the nation is not done yet. The Southeast is in for another day of severe storms and scattered tornadoes today.  There's a lesser, but still real chance of severe weather and maybe a tornado or two tomorrow in eastern North Carolina and Florida. 

The tornado season is young, but it's turning out to be a busy one, with seemingly a fairly substantial outbreak happening every week. 

The pattern seems set to continue. There are signs of another potential outbreak in the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley next week. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

All these tornado producing storms in the United States this spring seem to peter out by the time they get to Vermont.  They've just been throwing light to moderate precipitation at us, no biggie.

This one looks like it will pack just a little more oomph than the previous systems. 

Northern Vermont in particular is set up for a really nice day today ahead of this storm, with some sun and temperatures poking up to near 60 degrees. Clouds in southern Vermont will hold temperatures down a bit there. 

The parent storm for these tornadoes will be parked over the Great Lakes and will throw quite a slug of moisture at us tomorrow. It will totally be a rainy day, a washout really. The rain will continue Thursday night. 

We're in for a good one to two inches of rain with this. That'll be more than enough to get rivers rising, especially if you take into consideration some snow melt from the high elevations.  Minor flooding seems like a good bet along some Vermont rivers if this forecast holds. 

For what it's worth, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for excessive rain and flooding Thursday into Friday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington also says there might be pockets of freezing rain in some mountain locations and protected valleys of the Northeast Kingdom at the onset of precipitation tomorrow morning, and again Thursday night. 

It doesn't look like the freezing rain will be widespread, so most of us won't have to worry about it. 

Relatively cool, showery weather is in the offing Saturday and Sunday before things dry out some for early next week.

Wildfires And Severe Storms This Week Are Following Concerning Trends

Wildfires just keep getting worse in the central and 
southern Great Plains. Fire activity is forecast to get
intense later today. 

 Northern Texas, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas are under a rare alert for "extremely critical fire conditions" today as yet another round of wildfires are bursting their way through the central and southern Plains. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast states are gearing up for a big severe thunderstorm and tornado threat tomorrow. Both of these issues are part of a worrying trend. 

WILDFIRES

Extremely critical fire condition alerts are usually only issued 10 or so days per year somewhere in the nation.  This is the second time already this year that parts of Texas have been under this threat. This threat level means that dry conditions, very low humidity and strong winds would make any wildfires that start pretty much impossible to contain. 

In the "extremely critical" area today, fires were already spreading before weather conditions were expected to get dangerous. By dangerous, we mean a landscape parched by drought, bone-dry humidity and winds of 35 to 40 mph with gusts in the 65 to 70 mph range 

As of this past Friday, 123,000 acres in Texas had already burned this month, more than the three previous Marches combined, according to Texas Tribune.

The Texas fires this year have already caused one death and burned several structures.

Fires are already burning today in Oklahoma as well. A grass fire that started at an Oklahoma City salvage yard threatened several homes in the city. At least 10 of the houses were evacuated, but it looks like firefighters managed to save them. 

Earlier this month, a firefighter died while fighting a rangeland blaze elsewhere in Oklahoma. Several other wildfires this month have raced through mostly open country in North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

As is so often the case, climate change seems to be helping to create an increasing trend of winter and spring wildfires in the Great Plains. Drought has become more endemic, and hotter weather than in the past dries things out faster. 

This has been known since at least 2017, when a study indicated that the number of large and dangerous wildfires in the Plains tripled between 1985 and 2014. 

It isn't just climate change causing this, of course. Farm abandonment is one reason.  If farmland is left alone, flammable weeds take over. Also, invasive species like a variety of cedar that burns easily and hot are probably increasing the severity of at least some of the fires.

TORNADOES

Notwithstanding last week's storms in Texas, there's been a trend toward lower numbers of tornadoes in the traditional "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains.  The new tornado alley, if you will, now seems to be further east, in the Gulf Coast States, and the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. 

Once again, the Gulf Coast states are under a serious
risk of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes, 
with most of them happening tomorrow. 

True to form, after a chance of a few tornadoes and severe storms today in a band from northeast Texas to southwest Iowa, tomorrow looks dangerous again in the Gulf Coast states. 

If things work out as expected the outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes centered in and around Mississippi won't be those classic individual supercell storms dropping large, wedged-shaped tornadoes.

Instead, most of the rough weather will consist of an intense line of storms, with damaging straight line winds of 75 mph in a few spots, along with embedded tornadoes swirling within the main line. In some ways, this type of tornado is more dangerous than "traditional" tornadoes with well defined funnels.

Tomorrow's anticipated tornadoes will be quick hitting and hidden behind walls of heavy rain, so nobody will be able to see them coming. Even though radar will pick up the tornadoes and the National Weather Service will issue tornado warnings as needed, there's something about human nature that needs visual confirmation that the twister is heading toward them.  There will be no such visual confirmation in most cases tomorrow. 

Research has confirmed the tendency in recent decades of more tornadoes in "Dixie Alley" and fewer overall in the Great Plains. 

The number of times the atmosphere is conducive to tornado formation is actually increasing pretty much everywhere east of the Mississippi River, including here in Vermont. (But don't worry too much, tornadoes will remain rarity in the Green Mountain State.