Hurricane Humberto, Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Imelda Begin Their Dangerous Dance

This morning's satellite phot shows powerful 
Hurricane Humberto spinning gracefully on the
right side of the photo, while what should become
Tropical Storm Imelda struggles to organize
near northeastern Cuba. 

The Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia are now on alert for that dance we told you about the other day between Hurricane Humberto and what will soon be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

They're going to be too close to each other, which means they might do weird things, like tumultuous romantic couples do. The two storms might try rotating around each other, or one will pull the other in odd directions or one of them might stall, you never know. 

This is a HUGE forecast headache for everybody, mostly because so much is at stake.  This situation has the potential to cause immense, life-threatening floods in the Carolinas.   

Following what has become a very common trend in Atlantic hurricanes, Humberto in the past couple of days blew up from a humble tropical storm to a Category 4 monster, with top wind speeds of 145 mph. It's possible it will end up as another Category 5 in the next day or so.

As of this morning, Humberto was churning a good distance - 375 miles or so - northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 

The good news in this messy scenario is Humberto will stay well offshore of the East Coast. A landfall would be devastating for a hurricane of this strength. So at least we avoid that. 

If not for wannabe Imelda, this situation would be very much like big powerful Hurricane Erin in August. Humberto will expand as it heads northwestward, then northward, then out to sea. It would throw some dangerous rip currents, and some coastal flooding here and there up and down the East Coast. 

IMELDA INTERFERES

But the East Coast is not out of the woods, thanks to Wannabe Imelda. As of early this morning, the center of what should become Tropical Storm Imelda was near the northeastern coast of Cuba. 

It might already be a tropical storm by the time you read this, because this thing was on the cusp of becoming one as of dawn Saturday. 

Early guesses is it will move northward through the Bahamas through early Tuesday, parallel to the Florida coast. 

But that's something of a guess, considering Humberto will also be lurking nearby, like a fickle Latin lover with his eyes on Imelda. 

By Monday morning, Imelda will probably be somewhere over the Bahamas while big, fat Humberto makes its closest approach to Imelda to its east. 

Because Humberto is so strong, it's probably going to be the boss in its relationship with Wannabe Imelda .The trouble is, Humberto isn't exactly being clear on what he's going to do with Imelda.

What follows is a scenario a lot of forecasters have settled on, at least as of Saturday morning. Definitely expect both changes to the hurricane predictions forecast and some surprises. The relationship between Humberto and Imelda could become soap opera-level tumultuous. 

THE TROPICAL TELENOVELA

At first, on Sunday and Monday, the two storms would roughly move in tandem toward the north or northwest, like a bride and groom walking down the aisle. 

Then Humberto would part ways, accelerating to the Northeast. That might tug Imelda east a little bit, as if it wanted to chase after Humberto. ("Please!!! Come back!!!,"  I can imagine Imelda wailing).

The tug east would be great as it might prevent a United States landfall. There would still be heavy rain, flooding, coastal surges, wind, that sort of thing. Bad for sure, but not a worst  case scenario.

But Humberto might do other things. It might initially tug at Imelda, but then leave it sitting there like a jilted date, just offshore of the Carolinas.  That would keep dumping and dumping rain on the eastern Carolinas, causing yet another unwanted catastrophic flood there. 

Unlike Helene last year, the big flood, if it happens, would mostly but maybe not completely avoid the mountains of western North Carolina. 

Or, after Humberto departs, Imelda might wander indecisively and erratically off the U.S Southeast Coast, maybe looking for another hurricane to hook up with. 

A wild card is we don't know how strong Imelda will get. If it remains a relatively weak tropical storm, Imelda would likely be more obedient to Humberto. If it develops into a stronger hurricane, Imelda might get annoyed at misogynistic Humberto and pull a surprise of her own. 

Then, all bets are off on what Imelda might do. 

I guess we just need to do what we do with all soap operas and telenovelas. Just sit and wait for the next  episode. Annoyed meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are probably taking a cue from Carol Burnett and calling this mess between Humberto and Imelda "As The Stomach Turns."

VERMONT EFFECTS

Pretty much the only easy part of the hurricane forecast is how all this is going to affect us here in Vermont. The answer is: It won't.

Which means our drought will start to reintensify.

Some scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening were the icing on Thursday's welcome, delightful, soggy cake. For instance, a brief downpour dumped another 0.12 inches on Burlington.

While our tropical drama plays out far to our south, strong high pressure will park itself overhead. Some clouds might come in this afternoon and evening as a disturbance zips by to our south but no rain will come of it. 

Sunday and Monday and probably Tuesday look dry and warm and sunny.  Highs in the warmer valleys could touch 80 degrees, which is unusual but not unheard of for this time of year.

Humberto - far offshore by midweek - will be one of a few atmospheric factors that should pull even stronger, and cooler high pressure down from east of Hudson Bay later in the week. That will probably re-introduce the chance of frost for a couple mornings before warm, sunny weather returns afterwards.

It still looks like our next chance of rain in Vermont won't come along until October 9 or so.  

No Atlantic Hurricanes Now At Peak Of Season: How Did We Get So Lucky?

Hurricane Erin is so far the only Atlantic hurricane
this year. We've entered a very odd period of no
tropical storms at what should be the
peak of hurricane season. 

Each year, on September 10, there is usually at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.  

After all, today's date is the statistical peak of hurricane season. This year: Crickets.  

For a few days now, the main map on the National Hurricane Center map has stated. "Tropical activity is not expected during the next 7 days."

This is the first September 10 since 2016 without a tropical storm or hurricane. Only a handful of September 10s in the past half century without an Atlantic tropical storm.

This year, the last time there was a tropical storm was the day weak Tropical Storm Fernand died out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean without hurting anyone. 

The fact there is no hurricane currently in the Atlantic to menace anyone is great news. We've had enough of that in recent years. But meteorologists are sort of scratching their heads as to why there are no tropical systems out there.

Water temperatures where hurricanes would form are well above average. Since hurricanes thrive on warm water, this should encourage these storms. Right now, it's not. 

The problem for hurricanes is probably a large area of stable, dry air over the Atlantic.  You usually get the dry air early in the season but the atmosphere gets more moist by September. So far, that really hasn't happened all that much. 

Hurricane Erin did take advantage of increased moisture last month, but it's gotten dry again. There were concerns a system in the eastern Atlantic could form into a tropical storm a few days ago. But it ran into that dry air and completely fell apart.

We are falling behind normal in a year that was expected to give us slightly more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual. Six named storms have formed this year, which is two fewer than average by September 9. And only one of them strengthened into a hurricane. 

This is the second year on a row there was almost no tropical storm activity near the peak of hurricane season. Last year, there were no named storms between August 13 and September 8, which was the first time since 1967 there was nothing in that period of time. 

Of course, things took a tragic turn afterwards, later in the season with Hurricanes Helene and Milton. 

As of yesterday, we've had 16 days in the Atlantic with no named storms. That looks like it might go to at least 23 days, as nothing is forecast through next Monday. 

There were also quiet periods during peak season in 2020 and 2022. That's leading to speculation that maybe climate change is messing with hurricanes in ways we hadn't realized. We do know that when hurricanes form, they've tended to get stronger as they've been supercharged by extra warm Atlantic waters.

But maybe climate change somehow reduces the number of storms that do form, at least near the peak of the season. We don't really know why.  

One theory is the lapse rate - how fast the air temperature falls as you gain altitude.  The thunderstorms that power developing tropical storms need a steep lapse rate, meaning the temperature decreases sharply with height. 

There generally isn't as big a difference than usual this year between surface temperatures and readings many thousands of feet overhead. Is climate change doing that?  Researchers probably want to look into it. 

\As Bob Henson and Jeff Masters write in Yale Climate Connections, a deep dip in the jet stream that's been contributing to drought here in Vermont would have helped steer tropical storms or hurricanes away from the U.S. over the past couple weeks had they formed. 

Now, the pattern is changing with a northward bulge in the jet stream expected to form over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean. If a hurricane were to form over the next couple weeks, that pattern would make it a bit more likely for a tropical storm or hurricane to head toward the United States.

So we should hope the hurricane drought continues. 

Last year, as mentioned, the hurricane season perked up in dramatic fashion after the midseason lull. In 2022 the lull came a little later in the season, after devastating Hurricane Ian.  There were several tropical storms and a couple hurricanes after Ian, but those mostly formed late in the season - October and November. 

I guess all we can do this year is whatever is keeping hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic keeps it up. Then again, up here in drought-stricken Vermont, I wouldn't mind the heavy rainfall from a dying tropical storm.  

Tropical Storm Erin Forms, Expected To Be Big Hurricane, But Where Will It Go?

Tropical Storm Erin in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
doesn't look like much in satellite photos just yet,
but forecasters expect it to grow into a pretty 
powerful hurricane. No word yet on whether it 
would eventually threaten the United States.

 Tropical Storm Erin formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean today. This one will be the first biggie of the Atlantic hurricane season.  

But what Erin does and where it goes is still a big question. 

Since it was just forming, Erin is - for now - pretty week - with top winds of 45 mph.  Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center said they think Erin will at first struggle against dry air and ocean water temperatures only barely warm enough to maintain a tropical system.

But as Erin moves westward, it'll encounter more humid air and ocean water that is much warmer.

 The water temperature isn't at record high levels as they were in 2023 and 2024.  But that temperature is well above normal and can easily support a strong hurricane,

The early guess is by Saturday morning, a rather powerful Hurricane Erin might be somewhere north of the Leeward Islands.

But then where will it go?

Many, but not all of the computer models are kind of encouraging. They turn Erin northward while it's well north of Puerto Rico and send it off into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far off the U.S. East Coast. 

The current track forecast for Erin, It's depicted as a 
major hurricane well northeast of Puerto Rico on
Saturday. It might turn north after that, but 
meteorologists are still unsure. 

But not all models do that. Some bring Erin to near Florida. And remember, it'll be a week or more before Erin will have any opportunity to approach the U.S.   So many things can change in that time frame that could conceivably take Erin anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico, to anywhere along the U.S. or Canadian east coasts, or, as I mentioned harmlessly out to sea.

Obviously we're rooting for the harmlessly out to sea option. 

It's not worth panicking over Erin because any United States impacts it might have are far, far away. There's lots of time to watch this thing. 

As the National Hurricane Center notes, this is only the beginning of peak hurricane season. 

Even if Erin ultimately misses the U.S., it's a great excuse to prepare for the season, and make sure you have everything you need and plans in place in case a hurricane threatens later this summer or fall. 

Erin is brand new and it has already caused trouble. Even before it was officially a tropical storm, it set off serious flooding in the Cabo Verde islands, where six people were reportedly killed.  Homes, businesses and vehicles on the islands sustained serious damage. 

The Cabo Verde islands are roughly 400 miles west of the westernmost point in the continent of Africa.  

Debby, Flooding And Vermont: What We Know So Far

As of this morning, forecasts have the remnants of
Tropical Storm Debby going right over Vermont
early Saturday. That is actually a slightly better
scenario for us than if it were to go by a bit to
our east. But a big flood risk continues with this.

 As of this Wednesday morning, Vermont meteorologists are keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Debby, and what it means for the Green Mountain State.  

There's definitely the potential for additional, possibly serious flooding out of this.

 Just what we don't need given that we've had two big flood disasters last month, and really can't tolerate another.  Debby has already caused some really bad flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas, so we know this is a big bag of torrential rain. 

It's a little soon to guarantee a new flood disaster, but we still ought to be on alert. 

Anytime a tropical system comes our way, there's the potential for flooding.  Soils are already saturated in large sections of Vermont, especially the southern Champlain Valley, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont. 

At the moment, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a moderate risk zone for flooding Friday. That's level three out of four on an alert scale. It's rare to have a moderate risk posted two or  more days ahead of the event, so that's saying something. 

We know there's the potential for two to four inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. So we should get ready, just in case.  Both flash flooding and main stem river flooding are in play. 

FORECAST TRENDS

If you want to find glimmers of good news, there's a couple, though we are by no means out of danger. 

The expected track of the remnants of Debby, at least according to some computer forecasting models, keeps shifting a bit west.  Whereas almost all of the models yesterday had Debby passing by a little to our east, some of the latest ones have it going right overhead in Vermont. 

That sounds bad, but the heaviest rain with this type of system usually falls to the west of its track, not necessarily right underneath it.  That would put the most torrential rain in northwest New York and southern Quebec. The landscape is flatter there than it is in Vermont. 

In Vermont torrential rains rush off the mountains, leading to our dangerous flash floods. Flatter ground away from the Green Mountain State would minimize that. 

There's already a moderate risk
(Level 3 out of 4 alert level) for
flooding Friday and Saturday in
and around Vermont. 

Another trend we should hope will continue is that some models ramp up the forward speed of Debby's remnants. That means the downpours wouldn't linger as long, leaving less time for rainfall to pile up.

  Instead of soaking rains all day Friday and Saturday, the rain could shut off pretty quickly on Saturday. That is IF the forward track slows down. 

All that said, we shouldn't let our guard down. At all.

First of all, several computer models keep the center of Debby a little to our south and east. That would put Vermont in the crosshairs of the heaviest rains. 

Even if Debby takes a more westward path, we're absolutely not out of the woods. We might see less overall rain that way. Or at least the heaviest rain wouldn't be quite as widespread.

But the rain we'd get with this more inland journey for Debby would tend to come more in the form of intense showers and thunderstorms with super high rainfall rates here in Vermont.  

We saw a hint of that yesterday with an outbreak of downpours ahead of Debby in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York.  Islip, Long Island had about a half inch of rain in just five minutes.  Much of Hackensack, New Jersey was under water last evening. Flash flooding was widespread in that region. 

Those are the kinds of downpours we could see if Debby goes overhead or to our west. These would absolutely pose a nasty flash flood risk. So not great.

The timing of this would put Vermont in a flood risk from Friday morning, lasting well into Saturday.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST STILL

There's still a lot of questions as to Debby's exact path and speed, so there will surely be changes to the forecast leading up to Friday.  What we should hope for is a continued trend westward with Debby.  Again, absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

But the further west it goes, the better off we'll be in general. 

If you live in a flood prone area, now is the time to get ready.  We're a couple days away from the event, so you still have an opportunity to move stuff that can get damaged out of the way, if you can.  Even if we don't end up with a flood, getting ready like that is good practice for the inevitable future floods in Vermont. And if we do see a flood, you will have minimized damage some.

Of course, there's no way to move houses, businesses and farms out of harm's way, so we'd better hope we manage to dodge a bullet here. 

Stay tuned for updates! 

Debby Set To Cause Florida/Southeast Disaster; Lots of Questions Remain About Forecast Here In Vermont

Tropical Storm Debby had "that look" on satellite photos
this morning that suggested it wants to intensify
pretty fast before making landfall in northwestern
Florida sometime on Monday. 

 Yesterday's Wannabe Debby near Cuba is this morning's strengthening Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles west of Tampa. 

I decided to wait until late this morning to post, so I could get the most updated information on the tropical storm.  Debby's top sustained winds had increased to 65 mph by late this morning. It's getting close to becoming a hurricane. 

Debby is taking full advantage of extremely warm waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico so that it is getting stronger pretty quickly and will be a hurricane when it makes landfall in what is known as Florida's Big Bend on Monday. 

That Big Bend is the area in northwest Florida where the peninsula bends and transitions to the Florida panhandle.

Anyway, the forecast looks very sure on its path to that landfall, and there's even a chance it could be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. (That would mean sustained winds of at least 96 mph). 

After that, forecasters have serious questions as to what Debby will do next, but significant to maybe catastrophic flooding  (here we go again!) is likely somewhere in the Southeast.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we have our own forecasts questions, unrelated, at least for now to Tropical Storm Debby. More on that further down.

DEBBY

This is becoming an unpleasant trend.  Climate change and other factors have led to record  or near record high water temperatures in most of the areas where hurricanes form and grow. This is jet fuel for hurricanes, and we keep seeing hurricanes become monsters as a result.

That's why Hurricane Beryl earlier this summer managed to become a Category 5 beast in the Caribbean. It's why Hurricane Michael back in 2018 was able to slam into roughly the same spot in Florida  as a Category 5 calamity that Debby will hit. The hot water is one major reason why we had so many other intense hurricanes in recent years.     

The saving grace with Debby is it won't have all that much time over water where it can strengthen. It only has about 24 hours to do so. But a lot can change in a day, so we'll really have to watch the intensity of this thing.

Debby already had those sustained winds of 65 mph late this morning, as mentioned.As you can see in the visible satellite photo of Debby this morning it has "that look" that suggests it really wants to turn powerful. The inner core of the storm still wasn't completely well organized as of early this morning. How fast that core gets its act together will determine how strong it gets. 

One rather ominous sign is that Debby was showing signs of forming a central eye late this morning, indicating that its organizational skills are pretty good. 

In any event, Florida's Big Bend can expect damaging winds, a ferocious, destructive storm surge and torrential rains.  The storm surge could be made bigger by two factors: Debby's overall size is pretty big, which means it can push more water into a storm surge. Also, that bend in the coastline along that part of Florida can compress incoming water from the left and right, causing higher surges.

That's why mandatory evacuations are ongoing today in areas near where Debby will make landfall.

That torrential rain will become the main, worrisome feature of Debby in the coming days. 

Uncertain Path, Big Rain Dump

The trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that is steering Debby toward Florida's Big Bend is dissipating and moving on, which will leave very little to push Debby in any particular direction after it makes landfall. 

When hurricanes make landfall, their strong winds quickly collapse into much lighter breezes. But these systems generate torrential rainfall for days after landfall. That's part of the reason we had a destructive flood here in Vermont back on July 10-11.  The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which had made landfall in Texas days earlier, was able to contribute torrential downpours to a stalled weather front over Vermont. 

One problem is we don't know if the center of Debby will linger inland over the Southeast, or manage to  make its way just off the coast of Georgia or South Carolina. Either way, destructive flooding from inland downpours is inevitable. But if Debby goes off the coast, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen before moving back inland. 

No matter what happens, Debby is going to be a big problem in the Southeast starting today and going right through the week. 

In fact, due in part to Debby, more than enough rain to cause flooding is a decent bet at various times from now through next weekend anywhere from Florida to Maine. Which leads us to talk about Vermont. 

Spoiler: It's not dire, but we do have to watch the weather.

VERMONT FORECAST

The humidity grinds on. We are now on Day 6 in a row at Burlington in which the temperature failed to dip below 70 degrees. Saturday was the 14th day this year in Burlington which made it to 90 degrees. That's a tie for seventh most in a year. 

The Lake Champlain lake temperature was bath water this morning - 82 degrees which has to be a record high. 

We have 24 hours of oppressive humidity left in Vermont before the long awaited big change comes. Maybe a little more than 24 hours south. But it's coming. 

Until then, we have the ever-present risk of torrential showers and thunderstorms. They're always a risk in this kind of weather. 

Seems like every thunderstorm makes you worry, because we're spooked by the twin flash floods of July, and the other floods we endured last year. 

One storm popped up near Bolton and Huntington last evening that lingered for a bit. But luckily, it moved on and weakened just before it could cause major trouble.  I noticed a flood advisory for a corner of far southwestern Vermont early this morning, and locally  heavy rain was going on in spots in far southern parts of the state as of mid-morning.

More hit and miss storms are a good bet this afternoon and evening. Once again, many places won't see anything. Other places will get a quick drenching but otherwise not a big deal. But isolated places once again face the risk of microbursts, which would cause small pockets of wind damage, and isolated flash floods. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk (level one of five) of severe storms today. Southern Vermont is under a marginal risk (level one of four) of flash flooding today. I think northern Vermont has a very low, but not zero chance of one or two flash floods. NOT a panic moment, for sure. 

Monday

The risk of severe storms and flash flooding will rise somewhat in Vermont as that long-awaited cold front comes in. It'll arrive early enough north of Route 2 to suggest the risk of severe storms is very, very low. We are under a marginal risk of flash flooding in all but far southern Vermont due to some downpours expected along the front.  

But in central and southern Vermont, there is the risk of severe storms. Morning sunshine will increase instability before the cold front pushes in, so we'll have time to see scattered severe storms to develop. Those areas are under level 2 risk of severe storms. 

Although rain might linger into the evening, we're still expecting the start of the longest period of coolish, low humidity days we've seen in quite some time.  Tuesday through Thursday look great, though some minor questions in the forecast mean there's a non-zero chance of light showers Tuesday, and maybe Thursday. 

Beyond that, we have HUGE question marks. During our break from the oppressive weather, that deep heat and moisture will be lurking not too far to our south.  It could surge back northwards at least briefly toward the end of the week. Plus nobody has any idea what Debby or its remnants might do. 

So stay tuned on that.  

Wannabe Debby, Florida, Heat, Humidity, Vermont And You

Satellite view of what will become Tropical Storm
Debby as it was just starting to organize near Cuba
on Friday. It poses a threat to Florida in the coming days. 

 The heat drones on here in Vermont, where Burlington on Friday had its 13th day this summer with temperatures in the 90s. 

It was still above 70 degrees at dawn today in Burlington, the fifth consecutive morning of such stuffy conditions. 

People aren't getting much relief from Lake Champlain, either. We've had so many warm, muggy days and nights that the water temperature is hovering around a record high of 80 degrees.

  If the lake were an ocean, that would be warm enough to sustain a tropical storm or hurricane. 

No tropical storms here in Vermont. Scattered tropical showers over the next couple of days, maybe, but no tropical storms or hurricanes. 

Not so in Florida, which is under the gun from what I am for now calling Wannabe Debby.  It's a tropical depression that was just south of Cuba this morning.  It's organizing into what forecasters widely expect to become a full-fledged tropical storm by later today or tonight, and then they would name it Debby. 

It's expected to move generally northward, past Cuba and into the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That will allow this thing to strengthen pretty efficiently and become a tropical storm or even possibly a Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches northwestern Florida, probably on Monday. 

That'll open up swaths of Florida to coastal storm surges, wind and especially inland flooding. 

Wannabe Debby will probably slow down its forward motion as it passes through the southeastern United States early next week. That'll prolong the rain and intensify any flooding that goes on. 

It's also unclear what will become of Wannabe Debby once it reaches the Southeast. A trough of low pressure - the same one that promises to eventually clear out the ugly humidity in Vermont, could lift it northeastward, eventually passing just off the New England coast (probably, hopefully, too far east to give Vermont much trouble with rain)

Or, the trough of low pressure could entirely miss Wannabe Debby, leaving it behind to meander aimlessly somewhere near the Southeast coast. We'll just wait and see on that one.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Damage from a microburst in Colchester Vermont that
occurred this past Tuesday. There could be isolated
damaging microbursts in Vermont Sunday, but those
instances should be few and far between

So far at least, signs mostly suggest that Wannabe Debby won't be our problem here in Vermont. But the way this summer's going,  you never know, so stay tuned to local forecasts.

For now, we're stuck with the humid, icky weather through Monday morning at least. There was some spotty rain around this morning, but it didn't amount to much.

As usual in this kind of weather, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. They will be relatively few and far between, but of course any that do develop could stir up some locally torrential downpours. 

Sunday has a better chance of scattered storms, but again, not everybody will get 'em. Coverage of storms should be greater than it will be today.  There could be some isolated microbursts from some of these storms. Those can cause small swaths of pretty serious wind damage, like what happened in Colchester this past Tuesday.

The vast majority of us won't see anything like that, but a couple small spots might. 

Isolated instances of flash flooding are again possible, too, but it shouldn't be anything widespread. 

That long-awaited cold front should slowly limp through Vermont Monday with more showers.  It's still looking like we'll finally be into the much cooler, drier air by Tuesday and that would continue through the week. 

I have to wonder, though, whether Wannabe Debby will allow that front to progress very far south and east.  If that Wannabe Debby hangs up that front, rain could linger off and on, especially in southern Vermont, during much of next week. 

For now, though, the forecasts say we'll have at least a fair amount of sun, especially  north, to accompany those long awaited cooler days. 

Soon To Be Weird, Early Season Hurricane Beryl Menaces Caribbean

Satellite view of a healthy looking Tropical Storm
Beryl early this afternoon has "that look" that suggests
it could turn into a powerful and 
dangerous early season hurricane. 

 Tropical Storm Beryl was gathering steam pretty quickly Saturday out in the open Atlantic. It's behavior seems to hint at the widely predicted very busy Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.  

As of late Saturday morning, Beryl had top winds of 65 mph as it headed toward the Windward Islands. Barbados is already under a hurricane watch, as Beryl should be near that island late Sunday or early Monday. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes absolutely adore very warm ocean water and Beryl is no exception.  The hotter the water, the better chance a storm like this will strengthen.  That's one of the reasons why forecasters were saying this will be a busy hurricane season.

Waters in most of the areas where hurricanes form are at near record high levels.

Those super warm waters make Beryl weird and very much an early bird.  It's developing in an area where hurricanes very often get their act together. But this hurricane incubator zone pretty much never produces tropical storms until late August or September.

That Beryl is forming there is a testament to how unusually hot the water is out there.

Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist who specializes in Atlantic hurricanes said Saturday Beryl is the strongest tropical storm on record to develop that far east in the Atlantic Ocean.

Normally, if you do manage to get a hurricane in late June or early July, it forms in the Gulf of Mexico, or even further south, near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. 

The hot water under Beryl means it will probably strengthen rapidly on its trek toward the Windward Islands. By the time it gets to near Barbados, its top sustained winds could reach or exceed 110 mph.  Such rapid intensification in this part of the Atlantic is pretty much unheard of early in the season is unheard of.

Once Beryl gets into the Caribbean next week, it's future strength and track are still open to question. Stronger upper level winds could slowly weaken it. We also don't know whether this will eventually threaten the United States or not. 

Meanwhile, there's other areas the National Hurricane Center is watching. Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is following roughly the same path as Beryl and could develop into a new tropical storm next week. 

A disturbance near the Gulf of Coast of northeastern Mexico could briefly develop into a tropical storm before it runs inland next week. 

Overall, this whole scenario in the tropical storm and hurricane zone in the Atlantic reminds me of how things usually look when the season usually is ramping up in mid-August.  It's usually pretty quiet in late June. 

This is an ominous sign that all those forecasts of a very busy and potentially destructive Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 might well come true. 

 

First Tropical Storm Of The Season Inundates Texas, Mexico Coasts

Tropical Storm Alberto forming large messy swirl in
the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon. 

 We finally have our first named tropical storm in what is widely predicted to be a very busy Atlantic season.  

Tropical Storm Alberto officially formed late this morning in the midst of this huge swirl of storminess in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Its wind power is modest. Top sustained winds are about 40 mph. Those winds will probably increase only slowly before Alberto splashes ashore in northeastern Mexico early tomorrow morning.

However, Alberto is causing a lot of coastal flooding in Mexico, Texas and Louisiana. 

Size matters. Alberto itself is just part of that huge whirl of storminess in the Gulf. That's pushing water eastward and northeastward into northeast Mexico, Texas and parts of Louisiana.

 As a result, tropical storm and coastal flood warnings extend all the way up to Galveston, not far from Houston. That coastal flooding extends all the way to along the entire Louisiana coast. 

The storm surge in Texas might actually end up being worse than in Mexico, near where the center comes ashore. Video shows quite a lot of flooding in Surfside Beach, Texas and a number of other coastal resort towns.

Rainfall with this thing is serious, too. Five to 10 inches of rain could fall in southern Texas and up to 20 inches in the mountainous areas of northeast Mexico.  Needless to say, inland flooding is a big risk

Even after Alberto goes inland and dies Thursday, a swirl of storminess will remain in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Next week, that swirl could spit out another tropical storm, much like Alberto.  That's uncertainty, but forecasters are looking at that risk. 

Another disturbance northeast of the Bahamas is expected to move westward toward Florida or the southeast Coast.  Forecasters give that thing a low but not zero chance of turning into a tropical storm before hitting the coast. 

Ophelia Makes Landfall In North Carolina, Almost At Hurricane Strength

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Ophelia shortly after
it made landfall in North Carolina early this morning.
Center of Ophelia is in lower left of photo. It was
already sending high clouds all the way into southern Quebec.

Tropical Storm Ophelia almost made it to hurricane force before making landfall at 6:15 this morning at Emerald Island, North Carolina. It had top sustained winds of 70 mph,  just 4 mph shy of hurricane strength. 

That fact that Ophelia wasn't quite a hurricane at landfall doesn't matter much to the people living in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. 

It's still nasty, and a bit dangerous in this storm. Cape Lookout, North Carolina had sustained winds at 61 mph with gusts to 73 mph earlier this morning. 

At least 50,000 people were without electricity this morning in North Carolina and Virginia as of early this morning and that number is expected to grow.  

Coastal flooding isn't too extreme, but it is widespread. Coastal flood warnings extend from North Carolina all the way up to Long Island, New York. 

It no longer takes that much of a storm to cause coastal inundations because sea levels have risen due to climate change. 

Moisture from Ophelia raises the risk of inland flooding from North Carolina all the way up the coast to Connecticut.

Ophelia will gradually weaken and eventually turn into a fairly lame, non tropical storm somewhere near Delaware by Sunday night. 

The remnants of Ophelia could drift off the coast eventually and perhaps regenerate a bit over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, we'll see.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, we're certainly escaping much trouble from Ophelia here in the Green Mountain State, expect maybe in far southern Vermont. They will have a spell of rather unpleasant, but definitely not dangerous weather. 

Clouds and showers from moisture thrown north by Ophelia will keep far southern Vermont damp and chilly. In many towns in Bennington and Windham counties, highs today and tomorrow could stay in the 50s. 

Those clouds from Ophelia will make it all the way to the  Canadian border and beyond. But the further north you go in Vermont today and tomorrow, the higher and thinner the clouds.  That will allow some sun to come through, and it will be mild enough.

The clouds and possible sprinkles as far north as Route 4 will keep daytime temperatures both days this weekend in the mid 60s in central Vermont. 

By the time you get to Route 2 and north, highs both today and tomorrow will be well into the 60s to around 70.

The veil of high clouds over northern areas this weekend puts us at risk, for the lack of a better word of another round of gorgous sunsets this weekend. 

Beyond that, we get our biggest break of the year in terms of weather. Rainfall has become somewhere more infrequent in Vermont this month, at least compared to the constant deluges from mid-June through August.

Strong high pressure is still expected to stall mostly in Quebec starting Monday.  That means it appears we'll have generally sunny, mild days and cool nights with patchy fog daily Monday through possibly all the way to next Saturday. 

We'll get either no or extremely little rain. You might have to water late season plants. But things overall are so wet in the ground that a week of rainless weather won't harm anything. 

Get out and enjoy the great weather next week! 

Bizarre June Weather Pattern Leads To Destructive Storms, Floods, Dangerous Heat, Frost and Tropical Storm

Tornado damage in Moss Glen, Mississippi this week.
An strange jet stream pattern is causing extreme
weather across the U.S.

 The jet stream, that ribbon if high speed air aloft that encircles the globe, tends to get boring in the summer. 

The big southward dips and northward bulges you see in the colder months tend to flatten out. So in the summer, you tend to get just minor weather systems. 

Oh. sure. you get big heat waves, some severe storms and flash floods in the summer. But you usually don't get a series of large scale events like you do in the winter.

Except this month. Meteorologists are astonished by the dramatic dips and bulges and cut off lows that have repeated set up this month. And will continue to do so. 

There's a big dip in the West, causing some late season mountain snows, crop-damaging freezes and a smattering of record lows in some areas along and west of the Continental Divide. 

Then a northward bulge, a "heat dome" has become intense over Texas and adjacent Mexico, causing dangerous, all time record high temperatures along with intense humidity. 

Meanwhile, in the East, a big dip in the jet stream, accompanied by stalled upper level lows, keep forming over the Great Lakes or eastern U.S. 

This is causing some pretty unprecedented weather for this time of year. 

Plus, a minor adjustment in this pattern has big implications for us here in Vermont over the next few days. More on that in a moment. 

TEXAS HEAT

Arguably the most dangerous aspect of this pattern is the heat in Texas and Mexico. Several all time record highs for any time in the year were established in southern and central Texas on Tuesday. 

Those include 118 at Rio Grande Village, 115 at Laredo and 114 at San Angelo. The San Angelo record bested the old all time record high by a full three degrees, which is pretty impressive when you're talking about all-time highs. 

The Texas heat is expected to grind on well into next week. Highs in many places will easily top 100 degrees with heat indexes in the 110s and possibly 120s.

This heat wave comes, as I wrote yesterday, as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation banning municipality from imposing water and cooldown breaks for construction workers. 

Meanwhile, temperatures in nine Mexican states reached 113 or higher on Tuesday.  Several deaths have been already reported in Mexico due to the heat.

SOUTHEAST STORMS

The Southeast is recovering from a spate of highly unusual June tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Big outbreaks of tornadoes in the South are rare after early May, except when a tropical storm comes ashore, which isn't the case here. 

At least six people have died in the tornadoes, which left widespread destruction from Louisiana to Florida. 

The severe weather has died down somewhat, but storms with very heavy rain are continuing in the Southeast. Flooding has been increasing, and that threat of high water should last into next week at least. 

NORTHEAST/VERMONT EXTREMES

The cut off lows in the East during late May and early June were too far south to do us in Vermont any good. So we got too dry, and it appeared a drought was developing. 

At midmonth, these stalled or slow moving systems came closer to us, creating some very welcome rains.  Much of Vermont received two to as much as five inches of rain in the week ending Saturday.

We're getting a sunny, dry break this week in which this dip in the jet stream is re-loading with a couple new cut-off upper level storm.

These next two are positioned a little differently than recent ones, a little further west and south. This will open the door to a flood of very humid air starting Friday and lasting into next week. 

This situation means we will have plenty of showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. Some of those will have torrential downpours, and some of them will move quite slowly. 

So, after our drought scare, we actually have the threat of local flash flooding starting this weekend and going into next week. At this point I don't see any large scale problems in the Green Mountain State, but some unlucky spots could see creeks and brooks rage out of control if a storm stalls or repeatedly hits any hilly terrain. 

It's unclear whether or where these flash floods might happen, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

TROPICAL STORMS

 This isn't quite related to our bizarre jet stream, but one tropical storm has formed in an area of the Atlantic Ocean that normally sees no activity until at least August. And a second tropical storm seems set to form in the same area.

This has to do with the record warm Atlantic Ocean waters I mentioned the other day.  The first storm, Tropical Storm Bret, has maximum winds of 60 mph and could get a little stronger as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in the next few days. 

Luckily, as Bret heads into the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, strong upper level winds should weaken it.

The second tropical storm should form within a day or two. It's too soon to tell how strong it will get or where it will go.

CLIMATE CHANGE?

Scientists think that climate change might be making the jet stream wavier, weirder and more prone to stalls, which fits in with what's going on now. Climate change probably is part of the story, but not the whole thing. 

We're transitioning into a global El Nino pattern, which features warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Often, when this happens, it really messes with the jet stream, and that's what might well be goin on now. 

Tropical Start To Autumn And After Series Of Lame Tropical Storms, But Now One To Watch?

Photo taken just as astronomical autumn arrived in 
St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday afternoon.  Hints of
color in the trees, but high humidity and a tropical 
shower in the distance felt surely unseasonable.

You almost surely missed it, but there's been a good handful of tropical storms lately. It's another busy season.  

Luckily, the reason why you haven't heard of them is because the tropical storms have all been wimpy and haven't hit anything.  It's a welcome reprieve from another destructive hurricane season. That's not to say there won't be more trouble later this autumn. More on that in a minute. 

In the past week or so, Tropical Storm Odette sideswiped Newfoundland and its remnants are still meandering in the North Atlantic. Odette might briefly turn into a zombie tropical storm as it temporarily heads south into warmer water, but that won't last long.

Tropical Storms Peter and Rose also got going in the open Atlantic over the past week but strong upper level winds tore them apart. They were headed north toward oblivion anyway, so if the strong high level winds didn't kill them, cold northern waters would have eventually done the trick. 

Next up is Sam.  It's in the process of organizing itself and should be officially declared Tropical Storm Sam later today.  

Unlike the last few storms, wannabe Sam looks like it will be a powerhouse. The National Hurricane  Center forecasts Sam to be a major hurricane with top winds of 115 mph by Tuesday. 

At this point, wannabe Sam is expected to be northeast of the Leeward Islands, way out over the Atlantic Ocean. 

Most of the computer models at the moment anyway want eventually to re-curve Sam northward into the open Atlantic, well east of the U.S. Seaboard. That would be the ideal way to go. 

But not all those computer models are on board with those scenarios.  So this will be the first tropical storm or hurricane for people in the United States to really want to watch since Nicholas back on September 13-14.  

Even if Sam does become a threat to the United States, that won't happen for quite awhile.  It would take until the very end of this month or the first of October for Sam to become a real worry, if it does at all.

Of course, even if Sam avoids us, hurricane season ain't over.  It's been busy, and there's still a lot of potential for real tropical trouble in October.

There's lots of examples running through both distant and past history. Hurricane Hazel in 1954, which killed about 500 people in Haiti before crashing into the Carolinas as a Category 4 hurricane. It moved northwestward all the way to Ontario, Canada killing about 90 people in the U.S. and 80 people in and near Toronto. (Hazel managed to produce gusts to 70 mph in Burlington)

More recently, Hurricane Wilma in October, 2005 was a Category 5 storm over open waters in the northwest Caribbean. It "weakened" to a still nasty Category 3 with 120 miles winds when it eventually whipped through Florida. 

Hurricane Sandy, though technically not a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey in late October, 2012 was arguably that state's worst weather disaster on record. 

Hurricane Michael came ashore in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 storm in 2018 unleashing near total destruction in and near Mexico Beach, Florida. 

So October  an be rough.  We'll see if that happens this year. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, astronomical autumn arrived Wednesday afternoon amid tropical-like humidity. It didn't really feel like autumn, did it?

It remains humid and warm today, but it IS autumn, so changes are afoot. A slow moving, wet cold front that's been lurking to our west will finally, slowly lumber through Vermont Friday.

It'll have a decent, but not extreme slug of rain with it.  We need the rain at this point, especially north, so that will be a good thing.

After that, we're down into average late September weather, with highs mostly in the 60s as we head into next week.