California Blizzard, Texas Wildfires Northeastern/Vermont Heat All Interconnected

Enormous Texas wildfires, along with huge California
blizzard and eastern U.S. record warmth, are all
interconnected in one big weather pattern 

 Those huge Texas wildfires that's been in the news have gotten ridiculously large.

So much so, that it is the largest wildfire in Texas history. 

There's been plenty of weather excitement going on lately in the United States, and that state of affairs looks like it will go on for the next few days. 

Between an extreme blizzard in California's Sierra Nevada mountains, winter storms and high winds in the Rockies, some of the worst wildfires in Texas history, and record warmth in the Great Lakes and Northeast, it's an impressive weather pattern. 

Let's break down the news first, then tie it all together:

BLIZZARD

The blizzard in the Sierra Nevada is extreme even by their standards, where snowstorms dumping several feet of snow are fairly common. 

In this case, the long lasting storm is dumping up to 10 feet of snow, with wind gusts of 70 mph in populated areas, and gusts to 115 mph or more in the mountains. 

This is life threatening. For instance, people were warned in advance not to travel through the blizzard area, and sure enough most roads, including Interstate 80 in the region are shut down. People are reportedly trapped on Interstate 80. I'm not sure why.  Forecasters and the media have been advertising this blizzard on blast for days.   

Yosemite National Park shut down due to the storm. 

Power outages loom, and there's also an extreme avalanche danger. Snow is falling at times at rates of up to six inches per hour, and winds are combining to create highly unstable snow.  Thundersnow is also possible. 

The storm is powerful enough to affect lower elevations. A rare tornado touched down Friday about 20 miles northwest of Fresno, damaging an elementary school and toppling trees. 

High winds and heavy snow are also extending through a large area in several Rocky Mountain states.

WILDFIRES

Texas and other parts of the southern and central Plains are still dealing with horrible wildfires.

The largest and worst of the blazes, dubbed the Smokehouse fire, had covered 1 million acres by Friday. That's about 1/6th the side of Vermont. 

The fire had killed two people, destroyed perhaps dozens of homes and killed thousands of livestock. 

On Thursday a little snow and rain tamed the fire a bit, but it covered such a large area there was no way firefighters could put the whole thing out.  The Smokehouse Fire was only 15% contained by Friday afternoon. 

Now, the fire weather is back. For both today and Sunday, the Texas Panhandle will be warm, windy and super dry.  Those are perfect conditions for fires to spread. And also allow new fires to spring up and quickly get out of hand. 

The dangerous weather conditions might get a little tamer during the early week, but still be sufficient for fires to rage on. Then, forecasters said, it could get worse again by the end of the week.  

RECORD WARMTH

After a brief shot of winter weather, record warmth has made, or is making a comeback in the Plains, Great Lakes region and the Northeast. 

Temperatures should be back up into the low 70s in Chicago Sunday and Monday.   Minneapolis is expecting a high of 72 degrees on Sunday, which would be the city's earliest 70 degree reading on record. 

High temperatures in Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday and Monday could break records for the date by a whopping 10 degrees, 

Buffalo, New York, known for its blizzards, is expecting a high near 70 on Monday. 

Here in Vermont, we might have some record highs tomorrow if skies clear fast enough, though that's iffy. . Record highs are also expected in the Green Mountain State Monday and possibly Tuesday. The forecast high in Burlington Monday is 61 degrees, which would be the third day within a week in which it makes it to 60 degrees or better.

TYING IT TOGETHER

Weather patterns are usually intertwined and the current situation is not much different. There's a big southward dip in the jet stream near the West Coast. This is allowing moisture streaming in from the central Pacific Ocean to mix with chilly air from the Gulf of Alaska, then slam headlong into California, and especially the Sierra Nevada range. 

The pattern is pretty persistent, which is part of the reason why the blizzard is lasting so long out there. The jet stream is pretty powerful out that way, too, which is why storminess is punching well inland through the Rockies.

From there, the jet stream curves northeastward again, forming a big northward bulge in the eastern United States and southern Canada.

This has pulled the storminess - in general - just north of Texas. That opens the door for warm, super dry and strong winds to blow in from the Desert Southwest into the Texas Panhandle. That, in turn led to the wildfires.

The jet stream kept heading north, allowing very warm air to surge northward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and southeastern Canada.

Although the warmth has been occasionally interrupted by cold fronts attached to the storms passing north of Texas than on up toward the western Great Lakes, the weather pattern has allowed the warmth to keep surging back in to the eastern U.S. 

The overall weather pattern isn't that unusual for this time of year. However, the strength of the California storm, the intensity of the Texas fires and the heat in the East is very, very odd. 

I don't know if I can tie the California storms to climate change.  Also wildfires do occur in Texas this time of year, but the intensity of the winds and the near record warmth when the fires broke out is definitely odd.

The warm temperatures in the Midwest, Northeast and southeast Canada are insane. This weather pattern would have produced balmy temperatures with or without climate change. But I have to think the margin by which record highs are being broken, and the sheer number of record highs has to be climate influenced.

This weather pattern will break down eventually. In fact here in Vermont it looks like it will turn cooler later next week, but it will still be relatively mild. 

For millions of Americans, though, late February and early March will certainly be remembered for a long time. For Texans in particular, those memories will be painful.  n

Bizarre June Weather Pattern Leads To Destructive Storms, Floods, Dangerous Heat, Frost and Tropical Storm

Tornado damage in Moss Glen, Mississippi this week.
An strange jet stream pattern is causing extreme
weather across the U.S.

 The jet stream, that ribbon if high speed air aloft that encircles the globe, tends to get boring in the summer. 

The big southward dips and northward bulges you see in the colder months tend to flatten out. So in the summer, you tend to get just minor weather systems. 

Oh. sure. you get big heat waves, some severe storms and flash floods in the summer. But you usually don't get a series of large scale events like you do in the winter.

Except this month. Meteorologists are astonished by the dramatic dips and bulges and cut off lows that have repeated set up this month. And will continue to do so. 

There's a big dip in the West, causing some late season mountain snows, crop-damaging freezes and a smattering of record lows in some areas along and west of the Continental Divide. 

Then a northward bulge, a "heat dome" has become intense over Texas and adjacent Mexico, causing dangerous, all time record high temperatures along with intense humidity. 

Meanwhile, in the East, a big dip in the jet stream, accompanied by stalled upper level lows, keep forming over the Great Lakes or eastern U.S. 

This is causing some pretty unprecedented weather for this time of year. 

Plus, a minor adjustment in this pattern has big implications for us here in Vermont over the next few days. More on that in a moment. 

TEXAS HEAT

Arguably the most dangerous aspect of this pattern is the heat in Texas and Mexico. Several all time record highs for any time in the year were established in southern and central Texas on Tuesday. 

Those include 118 at Rio Grande Village, 115 at Laredo and 114 at San Angelo. The San Angelo record bested the old all time record high by a full three degrees, which is pretty impressive when you're talking about all-time highs. 

The Texas heat is expected to grind on well into next week. Highs in many places will easily top 100 degrees with heat indexes in the 110s and possibly 120s.

This heat wave comes, as I wrote yesterday, as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation banning municipality from imposing water and cooldown breaks for construction workers. 

Meanwhile, temperatures in nine Mexican states reached 113 or higher on Tuesday.  Several deaths have been already reported in Mexico due to the heat.

SOUTHEAST STORMS

The Southeast is recovering from a spate of highly unusual June tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Big outbreaks of tornadoes in the South are rare after early May, except when a tropical storm comes ashore, which isn't the case here. 

At least six people have died in the tornadoes, which left widespread destruction from Louisiana to Florida. 

The severe weather has died down somewhat, but storms with very heavy rain are continuing in the Southeast. Flooding has been increasing, and that threat of high water should last into next week at least. 

NORTHEAST/VERMONT EXTREMES

The cut off lows in the East during late May and early June were too far south to do us in Vermont any good. So we got too dry, and it appeared a drought was developing. 

At midmonth, these stalled or slow moving systems came closer to us, creating some very welcome rains.  Much of Vermont received two to as much as five inches of rain in the week ending Saturday.

We're getting a sunny, dry break this week in which this dip in the jet stream is re-loading with a couple new cut-off upper level storm.

These next two are positioned a little differently than recent ones, a little further west and south. This will open the door to a flood of very humid air starting Friday and lasting into next week. 

This situation means we will have plenty of showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. Some of those will have torrential downpours, and some of them will move quite slowly. 

So, after our drought scare, we actually have the threat of local flash flooding starting this weekend and going into next week. At this point I don't see any large scale problems in the Green Mountain State, but some unlucky spots could see creeks and brooks rage out of control if a storm stalls or repeatedly hits any hilly terrain. 

It's unclear whether or where these flash floods might happen, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

TROPICAL STORMS

 This isn't quite related to our bizarre jet stream, but one tropical storm has formed in an area of the Atlantic Ocean that normally sees no activity until at least August. And a second tropical storm seems set to form in the same area.

This has to do with the record warm Atlantic Ocean waters I mentioned the other day.  The first storm, Tropical Storm Bret, has maximum winds of 60 mph and could get a little stronger as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in the next few days. 

Luckily, as Bret heads into the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, strong upper level winds should weaken it.

The second tropical storm should form within a day or two. It's too soon to tell how strong it will get or where it will go.

CLIMATE CHANGE?

Scientists think that climate change might be making the jet stream wavier, weirder and more prone to stalls, which fits in with what's going on now. Climate change probably is part of the story, but not the whole thing. 

We're transitioning into a global El Nino pattern, which features warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Often, when this happens, it really messes with the jet stream, and that's what might well be goin on now. 

Parts Of Canada, NW U.S. Baked In Record Heat This Past Week; Alberta Burst Into Flames

One of many wildfires burning in Alberta, Canada brought on
by record high temperatures and dry weather. Photo
from Alberta Fire.

 As I described the other day, a persistent north to northwesterly flow of air will blow across Vermont and the rest of New England this weekend and during most of the week. 

Despite the direction of the wind flow, it won't be cold. Temperatures will be pretty close to normal. Even a little warmer than normal on some days. 

A large part of the reason why is that it's been incredibly warm in large sections of central and northern Canada. There's just no cold air to head this way. 

Strong high pressure in central Canada has led to record high temperatures in vast areas.  One of the most impressive record highs was a reading of 88 degrees in Hay River, Northwest Territories. That town is about as far north as Anchorage, Alaska or Helsinki, Finland, notes the Washington Post. 

Temperatures also got well into the 80s across huge stretches of Alberta and Manitoba, and parts of British Columbia. Edmonton, Alberta reached a record high of 88 degrees on Wednesday. Calgary had a record high of 78 degrees. 

Some of the Canadian heat dipped down into parts of the northwestern U.S.  Missoula, Montana reached 90 degrees on Monday, the hottest it's been this early in the season since 1910, says the Washington Post. Spokane, Washington had two days in a row of record highs of 84 and 83 degrees.

HEAT CAUSES DANGER

The way-too-early hot weather prompted dozens of wildfires to break out in Alberta, Canada, forcing 13,000 people from their homes. One fire in Fox Lake, Alberta has already destroyed 20 homes and the town's police station. 

Hot, windy weather is expected to continue, so the fires are likely to worsen. 

The Calgary Herald reports that the fires will worsen through the month of May, and possibly into the summer.  Lightning strikes are forecast this weekend, which would set off new fires.  Though humans have been causing most of the existing fires. 

British Columbia endured a chilly winter and early spring, which allowed snow to really pile up in the mountains. Now, with the heat, the snow is rapidly melting, causing serious flooding. Heavy rains were forecast to move into southern British Columbia this weekend, which would make things worse. 

Hot Canada this week was caused by a weather pattern known as an Omega Block. The jet stream curled south of a substantial area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere just off the coast of California. 

The jet stream then curled far north around the edges of a "heat dome" that formed in Canada - basically a huge area of high pressure featuring oddly warm weather. The jet stream then zoomed southward around another big low near East Coast.  That low and jet stream configuration is why we just had a cool, wet week in Vermont and why parts of New Hampshire, Maine and Quebec had heavy rain and flooding. 

Climate change probably influenced the heat wave, too, driving temperatures higher than the otherwise would have reached. 

Omega blocks don't break down easily, which is why the weather was so persistent. 

The block has managed to shift around a bit.  The low pressure in eastern North America has shifted well to the northeast, so we have that drier northwest flow over us.  The low pressure on the West Coast has also weakened some. But the persistent dome of hot high pressure remains over central Canada.  So in the upcoming days, more warmth and wildfires will envelop many. of our neighbors to the north

Vermont Once Again Sits Out U.S./Canadian Weather Extremes

Pretty clouds and some fall foliage in South Burlington,
Vermont on Sunday. Extreme weather around the 
United States this week is avoiding Vermont

 We here in Vermont are facing a relatively cool October week, but nothing that out of the ordinary for the third week in October.  We're a bit of a rare exception.  

The weather is much more interesting almost everywhere else in the nation as temperature and precipitation extremes reign supreme.  Record cold, record heat, flooding and even a snowstorm are in the cards for many areas. 

A sharp cold snap for this time of year is unleashing Canadian air on a vast section of the nation's south and middle. Freeze warnings and frost advisories extend from Colorado to southern Ohio and on down to Alabama and Mississippi.

Quite a few record low temperature record will be set in this area over the next few days.  High temperatures will be near record low levels, too. Normally, it's in the upper 60s his time of year in St.Louis. They'll be lucky to get to the upper 40s today.

There's a decent chance Birmingham, Alabama could hit 32 degrees Wednesday morning. If it does, it will be the earliest freeze there in 109 years. 

Eastern Kentucky faces three consecutive mornings with temperatures in the 20s, definitely a rarity for them in October.

Way further north, there's actually a winter storm warning in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Lake effect snows there are dumping up to six inches of wet snow.  Winds are also gusting as high as 50 mph in that mess. 

Widespread record cold in the United States has been becoming increasingly rare with climate change.  Most months, we have far more record highs in the U.S. than record lows.  In July, August and September, there were at least ten times more daily record highs than record lows in the U.S.  That's the first time we had three consecutive months with that ratio since at least 1890. 

And, despite the cold week in the Midwest and South, there's still record heat to be found. In the Pacific Northwest and parts of western and northern Canada, the issue is record heat.  On Sunday, Seattle, reached 88 degrees, by far the hottest on record for so late in the season. Before Sunday, it had never been warmer than that after October 1. 

In Juneau, Alaska on Sunday, it was 62 degrees. Like the situation in Seattle, this was by far the latest in the season it has been so warm there. 

On Saturday Salem, Oregon reached a summery 92 degrees by far the warmest on record for so late in the season there, too.  Portland reached 87 degrees, breaking the record high for the date by seven degrees.

It's been at least 80 degrees in Portland eleven times so far this October.  Portland typically reaches 80 degrees in less than  half of all Octobers. 

Record heat has also been reported across British Columbia, Canada. 

Meanwhile, eastern Maine is bracing for the risk of flooding tomorrow.

The reason for all this chaos is what is known as an "amplified" jet stream. That means the usual bulges northward, and the dips southward in this jet stream are larger than normal. There's been a big ridge in western North America contributing to the heat.

On the front side that ridge, the jet stream takes a big dip into the middle of the United States. That explains all the cold weather there, since that dip is pulling cold air down from northern Canada.

Then, the jet stream takes a big northward swing off the East Coast. That brings tropical moisture northward. It'll miss most of the U.S., but clip eastern Maine, which explains the flood watch.

Here in Vermont, we're kind of in a sweet spot, though that doesn't necessarily mean glorious weather. We're a little too far east to get that cold blast directly. By the time the chilly air rounds the bend and starts coming at us from the southwest this week, the chill will modify into something that is just sort of cold.

A cold front will come through today and this evening with some light rain. A storm will form along that front and grab that Atlantic moisture I mentioned. But that will all be too far east to give Vermont all that much rain. It'll target eastern Maine instead. 

The jet stream is still showing signs of wanting to flip to a new arrangement toward next weekend and next week.  Signs are suggesting a northward bulge over the eastern United States, which would steer warmer than average and probably drier than average weather into our neck of the woods.

 

Jet Stream Meanderings Responsible For Weird Weather, Areas Of Record Heat

A quick morning downpour today precluded breakfast out
on the deck, but gave the plants a nice watering. 

The weird weather pattern since yesterday has pretty much worked out as forecast.  Which is an accomplishment.   When the weather is odd, the chances that a forecast will be dead wrong go way up. Not on this case, so far. 

Batches of showers and thunderstorms have been heading due south from Canada, mostly moving through New York and Pennsylvania, and for the most part bypassing Vermont.

One patch of showers did wander into Vermont this morning, dropping a quick quarter to third of an inch of rain to some areas, just to water the gardens a bit. w 

The conga line of storms and showers will renew themselves later today and tonight, again proceeding south through New York and Pennsylvania.  These repeated rounds of heavy rains could lead to local flooding in both states.  Vermont looks safe from that, anyway, but it does remain cool for the season. It will stay on the cool side until Friday. 

Meanwhile, western and central Europe is recovering from the opposite problem - a record breaking heatwave. Some cities reported all-time record highs, and others set records for the entire month of June. 

Examples cited by the Washington Post include:

The French cities of Biarritz (109.2 degrees), Rochefort Saint-Aignan (105.1 degrees) and Tarbes (102.6 degrees) set all time record highs over the weekend. Roughly 200 cities in France established new record highs for the month of June.

In Spains's Basque area, San Sebastian reached 111 degrees, breaking its all time record high by a wide margin.  

The Czech Republic established a new record high for the month of June with a Sunday temperature of 102.2 degrees in Husinec.  

Poland set a new June record with a high of 100.9 degrees in Slubice. Switzerland also established a new June record high of 98.4 degrees in Beznau.  

Meanwhile, the record heat also grinds on in the Midwest and South in the United States. Minneapolis hit 101 degrees on Monday, a record high and their first 100 degree temperature since 2018. record highs of near 100 degrees are in the forecast for southern cities like Atlanta.

The heat in Europe and the middle of the United States, and the cool, weird weather here are all related. 

The jet stream, which guides weather systems generally west to east across the Northern Hemisphere  normally has lots of bumps to the north and dips to the south. It's usually hot under the northward bulges and cooler under the dips. 

In the summer, the dips and bulges in the jet stream aren't as pronounced and big as they are in the winter. So, more often than not, the hot areas are only kind of hot and the cool areas are just kind of cool.

But the jet stream in the past few days has featured huge northward bulges and big plunges to the south, which is odd for this time of year. So, the extremes have been pretty extreme. On top of that, the bulges and dips haven't been moving around much so everybody gets stuck under roughly the same weather day to day. 

That's why there's a flood threat in New York and Pennsylvania. Those storms from Canada keep going over the same spots. 

Climate change is a factor, too.  The heat under those northward bulges in the jet stream in central North America and Europe is given an added boost by global temperatures that have risen in the past several decades.  Temperatures that would have just missed hitting a record high, say, in the 1970s are now smashing records.

These bigger than normal summertime bulges and dips in the jet stream might also be related to climate change. The science is still uncertain with this. But some experts think that because the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes, there's less of a north to south temperature contrast.

The jet stream thrives on a big contrast and in those conditions behaves itself. The theory goes that the relative lack of a contrast between the North Pole and down where we live is making the jet stream meander more than it would otherwise. 

That meandering jet stream gives us those big bulges northward where they had the heat waves, and those big plunges south, one of which has given us the past week's worth of cool, odd and unsettled weather. 

The jet stream looks like it will untangle itself a bit in the coming days,  hopefully resulting in more or less average summer weather for most of us. 

Definite Cracks In That "Never Ending Summer" Regime

Weather patterns nationally and locally
are finally beginning to transition to
one more typical of autumn

Here in Vermont and across most of the nation, summer has continued unabated well into September, with no sign that the season is transitioning to autumn.  

Until now.

The pillars of summer's dominance are falling like dominoes, as rain and chilly air begin to make real inroads. And did somebody say snow?

Relax. There's no snow is in the Vermont forecast just yet. I'm talking about the western mountains. 

Normally, as we go into autumn, the jet stream gets more energetic and begins to slip south.  This allows larger storm systems to form and create widespread rains. It also increasingly lets cold air trapped in Canada loose,  sending it down on the United States.

During the first two weeks of September, t seemed like this transition was not showing the usual signs of starting.  Now, it has.

One welcome aspect of that shift happened in drought and wildfire stricken British Columbia, and Washington and Oregon in the United States.

As that jet stream sank south, it allowed an atmospheric river of moisture from the Pacific Ocean to smack into these areas. Some areas have seen up to four inches of rain. This will end or at least seriously reduce the risk of wildfires in these areas.

Some of the rain is brushing far northern California, but unfortunately most of that state will remain in drought and wildfire risk for some time yet.

It'll be cold enough behind that western storm to unleash a little snow by Monday in the high elevations of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.  That's normal for this time of year, but still a sign of the season.

The first frost advisories of the season were up this morning in northern Minnesota, too. Again, normal, but still.

Here in Vermont, long range forecasts for summer warmth through the end of the month have fallen by the wayside.  Warm weather will not last as long as previous forecasts suggested. That's not to say we, or other parts of the nation won't have spells of warm weather between now and October.  It's just that it won't be consistently warm anymore. 

There's no sign of extreme cold coming up, but you will feel autumn's onset, especially toward the end of next week.

Before then, a brief intrusion of cooler air will drop temperatures into the mid and upper 30s Sunday night in the coldest hollows and the 40s elsewhere.  Once again, that's nothing unusual, but will still be the coldest weather since the end of May or very early June.

But at least it will be sunny and VERY pleasant Sunday and Monday, too.  But a big dip in the jet stream is coming, though there's a lot of argument about when later in the week that will happen.

When it does, you'll notice a transition to serious fall weather. Again, nothing wild for Vermont in September, but it sure won't be beach weather!  

Maybe Those Winter Storms Were NOT Caused By Jet Stream Made Weird By Climate Change

There's new debate over the specific mechanisms causing
intense winter snaps in places like the U.S. and
Europe despite an overall warming climate.

A theory about sharp winter storms and cold waves made paradoxically worse by a warming climate just took a big blow. 

I've mentioned this idea several times before during rough winter weather in the past, but here's a recap:

The theory is that the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes. That reduces the contrast in temperature between the far North and places down here. 

The reduced temperature contrast slows the jet stream, making it more prone to having bigger twists and turns along its path.  Occasional bigger southward dips in this jet stream regime would create a few intense cold snaps and winter storms, despite an overall warming climate. 

This idea gets floated a lot, like during the big Texas freeze and winter storm back in February. And it really does make sense. 

Except that new research suggests this whole wavy jet stream scenario isn't happening after all. Or at least isn't happening as much as some first though. 

The journal Science published an article recently about this new research.

As Science states:

"Now, the most comprehensive modeling investigation into this link has delivered the heaviest blow yet: Even after the massive sea ice loss expected by midcentury, the polar jet stream will only weaken by tiny amounts - at most only 10% of the natural swings. And in today's world, the influence of ice loss on winter weather is negligible, says James Screen, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter and the co-leader of the investigation."

The thought that a fast warming Arctic would screw around with the jet stream gained notice in 2012 through a paper by scientists Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus that examined this idea.

Francis and Vavrus had detected a weakening of the jet stream between the 1980s and the early 2010s that bolstered their theory of a more lame, meandering jet stream causing occasional extreme winter events in North America and Europe.

That weakening trend has since petered out even as carbon emissions and climate change continued unabated.

Of course, as Science notes, something else might be going on in the overall warmer atmosphere that is causing those occasional, intense, record breaking winter cold snaps that are interrupting our warmer winters now and then. 

Is less sea ice, combined with a trend for more snow over recent decades in Siberia, causing stratospheric disruptions. Those stratospheric disruptions mess with the polar vortex.  The polar vortex - a giant whirl of cold normally in the Arctic - then gets blown to pieces temporarily, helping send frigid air from the North Pole to places like Texas or Great Britain. 

Or, maybe atmospheric rivers - channels of warm, wet air - heading toward the Arctic more frequently, somehow displacing the normal icy air up there and sending it southward to torture the snow birds in normally temperate climates?

All this uncertainty proves the following: The basic science of climate change is settled science. Anyone who still believes the climate is not changing because of carbon emissions is either a crackpot or lying. 

However, the detailed mechanisms of this warming - how it affects specific weather events, specific locations and specific aspects of our complicated atmosphere - still need lots of study.

It's important to do so, because the more understanding we have of the deep details of climate change, the better society will be at anticipating and reacting to the negative effects of what we're doing to the atmosphere. 

 

 

A Lack Of Siberian Arctic Ice And You

Arctic Ocean water near Siberia is not freezing like 
it's supposed to this time of year. 

 As of late October, the Arctic Ocean near Siberia wasn't yet covered in ice. 

This, according to scientists, is very odd and dangerous, another sign that climate change is messing with the Arctic. 

That area is essentially the Northern Hemisphere's air conditioner. If the air conditioner is out of whack, bad things can happen. 

Usually, the Laptev Sea, the part of the Arctic Ocean near Siberia, starts to freeze in late September as the waning autumn sun stops heating the surface. 

This year was so hot, and the heat was so unprecedented, that this section of the Arctic Ocean really warmed up - much more than usual.  With the water so warm, it takes time for the heat content to dissipate into the atmosphere amid the late autumn darkness. So the ice is late.

This can lead to a feedback loop that can ensure less and less ice. The freeze up north of Siberia is late, so chances are the ice that does form won't have time to thicken up to the extent it does most winters.  Which will make it easier to melt next spring. 

Overall, sea ice extent in the entire Arctic was the second lowest on record in September, continuing a decades long trend of declining sea ice. 

As I've mentioned before in this here blog thingy, a lack of Arctic ice might make the weather screwy down in the mid-latitudes, where most of us live.  

The lack of Arctic ice, and the overall warming trend up there, might make the jet stream wavier and more meandering than normal, causing spells of extreme weather. 

This past week, an Arctic blast of unprecedented cold dropped temperatures to as low as 30 below in the northern Rockies, the coldest on record for October.

In Oklahoma and Texas, where temperatures this time of year are normally in the pleasant upper 60s and low 70s, a crippling ice storm collapsed thousands of trees that still had green leaves on them.

It does seem absurd to blame record cold and winter storms on global warming.  And to be sure there is NO WAY I have the knowledge or expertise to conclusively tie the bizarre winter weather out west this week to climate change. 

Still, this episode of weird weather is consistent with what scientists are saying about a weirding out jet stream.  

For instance, overall, the continental United States has shown a clear upward trend in average temperatures over the past few decades at least.  But this trend gets occasionally interrupted by some pretty wild cold snaps. 

A great example of what I'm talking about has happened right here in Vermont.  Last November, we had some of the coldest weather on record for so early in the season in the Green Mountain State.  On Mother's Day weekend this year, it snowed. 

Yet, last winter was Burlington, Vermont's eight warmest winter on record and this past summer was THE hottest on record. 

Whether or not rapid Arctic warming contributes to these strange weather episodes like we've had this past week, the wildly erratic jet stream can have dangerous influences far and wide.

The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang reported a terrific example of this:  Hurricane Zeta was on approach to Louisiana Wednesday.  Cooler ocean temperatures near the coast and expected upper level winds would temper the strength of Zeta, making it barely a Category 1 storm at landfall. At least that was the expectation.

But nope:  Zeta strengthened to a high end Category 2 storm with top winds of 110 mph, definitely causing more wind and storm surge damage in Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia than expected.

What happened?  The jet stream, dipping so far south into Texas, allowed air in the upper levels of the atmosphere to spread out near Zeta.  That allowed Zeta to ventilate itself.  Hurricanes need rising air to fuel the thunderstorms that contribute to their power. 

This diverging air encouraged the thunderstorms in Hurricane Zeta, allowing the storm to strengthen and overwhelm any negative influence from cooler water or strong winds in the upper atmosphere. 

As the Washington Post reported:

"In meteorology, extremes tend to beget extremes, and Zeta's fury was yet another example. It was a hurricane paradoxically intensified by an ice storm that cut power to hundreds of thousands several hundred miles away."

If extremes lead to extremes, and climate change leads to more extremes, this is all bad news. As I said before, I don't know if the weird weather of this past week was related to climate change or to what extent if it was. 

I do suspect climate change had some role. If that's the case, expect more crazy weather weeks in our future. Ones that feature wildfires, hurricanes, ice storms, weird temperatures, and God know what else.

 Hang on to your hat! 

 

Not Usually Good News When Weather Pattern Turns "Interesting". It's Getting Interesting

I'm not saying anything super bad is going to happen, but a really wavy weather pattern coming up for the United States could spell various kinds of trouble next week.  

One forecast of the weather pattern in 
about a week. Ridges on both coast
with a dip in the jet stream in the Midwest
would create more wildfire risks out west.
Pattern could steer a hurricane if there
is one into the East Coast. Chilly
in the Midwest

It just depends on what moves where and when. 

Here's the problem: A deep southward dip in the jet stream is setting up in the middle of the nation next week. That means northward bulges, called ridges, will set on either side of this dip, one on the West Coast and one off the East Coast. 

The one on the West Coast is almost certain to stir up trouble.  It'll cause another bout of record high temperatures, which means the wildfires out in that part of the nation will surely worsen during this. 

The East Coast ridge is more problematic. The center of the ridge will probably build over the Canadian Maritimes.

It's the height of hurricane season. Many hurricanes form in the Atlantic this time of year, and a lot of them take a northward turn well east of the United States and so they harmlessly blow out to sea.

The type of weather pattern getting ready to set up with that high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes would steer a hurricane westward across the southern Atlantic Ocean then push it toward or up along the East Coast.  

Of course, it's far from a guarantee that this would happen. First you need an actual hurricane, and there's none out in the Atlantic right now. Tropical Storm Omar is a weak thing far off the North Carolina coast and will soon die out in the north central Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Nana could become a hurricane, but it's southwest of Jamaica and heading west toward Belize. Terrible for them, but not a problem for the United States. 

If a hurricane does form in the next week or so - again definitely not guaranteed -  it would have a higher than average chance of hitting the East Coast.  Which is bad, because we've already enough hurricanes to deal with this year. 

This weather pattern will bring chilly air from Canada to the middle of the nation, so that will be the first truly autumnal cold front of the year out there. I wouldn't be surprised to see frost advisories in places like northern Minnesota next week.  (Frost advisories aren't that out of the ordinary in the north woods of Minnesota this time of year).

For us in Vermont, those cold fronts would either come through weakly or die out on the way here due to that ridge to the east of us. Temperatures would stay close to normal through next week, although there may be periods of warmer than normal temperatures and humidity during all this. 

This weather pattern would also increase the odds of wetter than average weather in Vermont starting sometime next week. Moisture streaming north on the back side of the ridge to our east, combined with those stalled out fronts over us or just to our west would combine to give us quite a few periods of rain. 

That would be a good thing, as long as there are no hurricanes in the mix. Vermont is still abnormally dry after such a long, hot summer, so some decent rains would help.