A Lack Of Siberian Arctic Ice And You

Arctic Ocean water near Siberia is not freezing like 
it's supposed to this time of year. 

 As of late October, the Arctic Ocean near Siberia wasn't yet covered in ice. 

This, according to scientists, is very odd and dangerous, another sign that climate change is messing with the Arctic. 

That area is essentially the Northern Hemisphere's air conditioner. If the air conditioner is out of whack, bad things can happen. 

Usually, the Laptev Sea, the part of the Arctic Ocean near Siberia, starts to freeze in late September as the waning autumn sun stops heating the surface. 

This year was so hot, and the heat was so unprecedented, that this section of the Arctic Ocean really warmed up - much more than usual.  With the water so warm, it takes time for the heat content to dissipate into the atmosphere amid the late autumn darkness. So the ice is late.

This can lead to a feedback loop that can ensure less and less ice. The freeze up north of Siberia is late, so chances are the ice that does form won't have time to thicken up to the extent it does most winters.  Which will make it easier to melt next spring. 

Overall, sea ice extent in the entire Arctic was the second lowest on record in September, continuing a decades long trend of declining sea ice. 

As I've mentioned before in this here blog thingy, a lack of Arctic ice might make the weather screwy down in the mid-latitudes, where most of us live.  

The lack of Arctic ice, and the overall warming trend up there, might make the jet stream wavier and more meandering than normal, causing spells of extreme weather. 

This past week, an Arctic blast of unprecedented cold dropped temperatures to as low as 30 below in the northern Rockies, the coldest on record for October.

In Oklahoma and Texas, where temperatures this time of year are normally in the pleasant upper 60s and low 70s, a crippling ice storm collapsed thousands of trees that still had green leaves on them.

It does seem absurd to blame record cold and winter storms on global warming.  And to be sure there is NO WAY I have the knowledge or expertise to conclusively tie the bizarre winter weather out west this week to climate change. 

Still, this episode of weird weather is consistent with what scientists are saying about a weirding out jet stream.  

For instance, overall, the continental United States has shown a clear upward trend in average temperatures over the past few decades at least.  But this trend gets occasionally interrupted by some pretty wild cold snaps. 

A great example of what I'm talking about has happened right here in Vermont.  Last November, we had some of the coldest weather on record for so early in the season in the Green Mountain State.  On Mother's Day weekend this year, it snowed. 

Yet, last winter was Burlington, Vermont's eight warmest winter on record and this past summer was THE hottest on record. 

Whether or not rapid Arctic warming contributes to these strange weather episodes like we've had this past week, the wildly erratic jet stream can have dangerous influences far and wide.

The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang reported a terrific example of this:  Hurricane Zeta was on approach to Louisiana Wednesday.  Cooler ocean temperatures near the coast and expected upper level winds would temper the strength of Zeta, making it barely a Category 1 storm at landfall. At least that was the expectation.

But nope:  Zeta strengthened to a high end Category 2 storm with top winds of 110 mph, definitely causing more wind and storm surge damage in Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia than expected.

What happened?  The jet stream, dipping so far south into Texas, allowed air in the upper levels of the atmosphere to spread out near Zeta.  That allowed Zeta to ventilate itself.  Hurricanes need rising air to fuel the thunderstorms that contribute to their power. 

This diverging air encouraged the thunderstorms in Hurricane Zeta, allowing the storm to strengthen and overwhelm any negative influence from cooler water or strong winds in the upper atmosphere. 

As the Washington Post reported:

"In meteorology, extremes tend to beget extremes, and Zeta's fury was yet another example. It was a hurricane paradoxically intensified by an ice storm that cut power to hundreds of thousands several hundred miles away."

If extremes lead to extremes, and climate change leads to more extremes, this is all bad news. As I said before, I don't know if the weird weather of this past week was related to climate change or to what extent if it was. 

I do suspect climate change had some role. If that's the case, expect more crazy weather weeks in our future. Ones that feature wildfires, hurricanes, ice storms, weird temperatures, and God know what else.

 Hang on to your hat! 

 

Hurricane Zeta's Mess And Two Winter Cold Shots Here In Vermont

 Hurricane Zeta caused a lot of trouble from Louisiana to the Carolinas yesterday and overnight, cutting power to 1.9 homes and businesses as it raced toward the Middle Atlantic States.  

Satellite view taken Wednesday of Zeta swirling in the lower
 left in photo with a large winter storm cloud shield to the 
west and north of it. 

Two deaths have bee reported with Zeta so far. 

The hurricane, with top winds of 110 mph, made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon.  The eye of Zeta went right over downtown New Orleans, where lots of wind damage was reported.

The storm also caused huge trouble in southern Mississippi with hurricane force winds and storm surges. 

Because the storm was moving forward so fast, it didn't have a chance to 

weaken inland, so destructive winds extended all the way to Atlanta, Georgia and beyond into the Carolinas. 

Believe it or not, we might not be done with tropical storms in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance in the eastern Caribbean Sea a 60 percent chance of development in the coming five days. 

If that one becomes a tropical storm, we will tie the record for the most tropical storms and hurricanes in a single season. That would bring us to 28 such storms, the same number as in 2005.

Zeta is about to merge with a storm coming in from the west, and will cause heavy rain and gusty winds in the Mid-Atlantic states.  Cold air feeding into the storm will change rain to snow in parts of New England, and here's where we get into Vermont's introduction to winter. 

VERMONT COLD

Winter weather advisories are up for the southeastern corner of Vermont - Bennington, Windsor, Windham and eastern Rutland counties for tonight. 

Rain associated with Zeta's remains will change to snow this evening and dump one to as much as locally four inches of snow on that part of the state. Travel could be a little slick down that way by tomorrow morning 

Precipitation amounts will taper off rapidly as you head north, and places north of Route 2 probably won't get anything at all.

However, all of us in the Green Mountain State are in for the first shot of winter cold. If you have stuff outside that can't stay there in freezing weather, bring them in today. 

Temperatures won't get out of the 30s tomorrow.  Tomorrow night, winds will die down and skies will clear, leading to a frigid early Saturday morning. Most of us will be in the teens, with the colder spots in the single digits. 

That brings us close to record lows.  The record low in Burlington Saturday is 17 degrees and Montpelier's is 16 degrees. Of the two, Montpelier's is the most likely to fall.

After a brief sorta, kinda, warmup over the weekend, and even sharper winter cold snap is likely Monday and Tuesday.  It looks like pretty much everyone will get snow early next week, but accumulations should be light. 

Before you get all upset over that, the second cold snap early next week will be brief, too. We'll get a strong warmup during the second half of next week. 

Also, if you still have autumn chores to do - I certainly have them! - this won't be as bad as last year. In November, 2019, hard core winter settled in around November 8 and stayed put, so chores outdoors went undone until spring. 

This year, we'll have some warm spells mixed in with cold shots well into the middle of November, and it doesn't look like we'll have a continuous, month long snow cover like last year. 

Hurricane Zeta To Slam Gulf Coast Today

Hurricane Zeta this morning looking healthy and
targeting Louisiana and Mississippi 

 It wouldn't be the year 2020 without yet another hurricane over performing and getting ready to wreck another part of the United States Gulf Coast.  

Hurricane Zeta strengthened pretty robustly last night, and was packing highest sustained winds of 90 mph on approach to the Gulf Coast early this morning. 

Zeta has a shot at strengthening a bit more before cooler coastal waters, stronger upper level winds and proximity to the coast shut off the fuel that keeps letting Zeta becoming muscular. 

So, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are in for a big blow later today and this evening. 

Forecasters have upped the predicted storm surge to as much as six to nine feet above normal sea level.  

Zeta's forward speed is faster than the usual Gulf of Mexico hurricane, so that will help winds be stronger on the eastern side of the storm.  That's because on the eastern side of a northbound storm, you have to add the winds of the storm with the forward speed to get what actually  happens.

The fast forward speed means that winds will continue to blow strong and damaging well inland, because Zeta won't have time to weaken much once it moves inland, since it's moving so fast. A tropical storm watch is in effect as far inland as the Atlanta, Georgia area.

The only bright side is the forward speed is so fast that epic inland flooding is probably not in the cards. The storm won't have time to dump huge amounts of rain. 

However, hurricane rains are torrential, so some flooding is inevitable. On top of that, as Zeta dies inland, it will merge with another storm to create a soaking, potentially flooding rain in parts of the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic States.

This will be the fifth hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast and third time a hurricane has struck Louisiana this year, so I'm sure everybody has had enough by now. 

It'll be the latest in the season a hurricane has struck the Gulf Coast since Hurricane Kate on November 22, 1985. 

For Hurricane Zeta, evacuations are ongoing in advance of the storm.  Low-lying Grand Isle, Louisiana is being evacuated for the fifth time this year due to Hurricanes.  

Metro New Orleans is included in the hurricane warning, so we'll have to watch their levees. Hopefully they'll hold and avoid any catastrophic flooding. Until now, all these hurricanes this year have largely missed New Orleans. Not this time. 

It still looks like the combined remnants of Zeta and that storm from the Plains will dump some snow on New England Thursday night. It looks like most of it will hit higher elevations of central New England. 

The southern half of Vermont stands to see a couple inches of snow with this, with maybe four or five inches in the higher elevations. So far, it's looking like northern Vermont will get little or no snow.  Expect a wintry day on Friday, though, as high temperatures will barely make it above freezing in some spots.  A north wind will add to the chill.