No Atlantic Hurricanes Now At Peak Of Season: How Did We Get So Lucky?

Hurricane Erin is so far the only Atlantic hurricane
this year. We've entered a very odd period of no
tropical storms at what should be the
peak of hurricane season. 

Each year, on September 10, there is usually at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.  

After all, today's date is the statistical peak of hurricane season. This year: Crickets.  

For a few days now, the main map on the National Hurricane Center map has stated. "Tropical activity is not expected during the next 7 days."

This is the first September 10 since 2016 without a tropical storm or hurricane. Only a handful of September 10s in the past half century without an Atlantic tropical storm.

This year, the last time there was a tropical storm was the day weak Tropical Storm Fernand died out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean without hurting anyone. 

The fact there is no hurricane currently in the Atlantic to menace anyone is great news. We've had enough of that in recent years. But meteorologists are sort of scratching their heads as to why there are no tropical systems out there.

Water temperatures where hurricanes would form are well above average. Since hurricanes thrive on warm water, this should encourage these storms. Right now, it's not. 

The problem for hurricanes is probably a large area of stable, dry air over the Atlantic.  You usually get the dry air early in the season but the atmosphere gets more moist by September. So far, that really hasn't happened all that much. 

Hurricane Erin did take advantage of increased moisture last month, but it's gotten dry again. There were concerns a system in the eastern Atlantic could form into a tropical storm a few days ago. But it ran into that dry air and completely fell apart.

We are falling behind normal in a year that was expected to give us slightly more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual. Six named storms have formed this year, which is two fewer than average by September 9. And only one of them strengthened into a hurricane. 

This is the second year on a row there was almost no tropical storm activity near the peak of hurricane season. Last year, there were no named storms between August 13 and September 8, which was the first time since 1967 there was nothing in that period of time. 

Of course, things took a tragic turn afterwards, later in the season with Hurricanes Helene and Milton. 

As of yesterday, we've had 16 days in the Atlantic with no named storms. That looks like it might go to at least 23 days, as nothing is forecast through next Monday. 

There were also quiet periods during peak season in 2020 and 2022. That's leading to speculation that maybe climate change is messing with hurricanes in ways we hadn't realized. We do know that when hurricanes form, they've tended to get stronger as they've been supercharged by extra warm Atlantic waters.

But maybe climate change somehow reduces the number of storms that do form, at least near the peak of the season. We don't really know why.  

One theory is the lapse rate - how fast the air temperature falls as you gain altitude.  The thunderstorms that power developing tropical storms need a steep lapse rate, meaning the temperature decreases sharply with height. 

There generally isn't as big a difference than usual this year between surface temperatures and readings many thousands of feet overhead. Is climate change doing that?  Researchers probably want to look into it. 

\As Bob Henson and Jeff Masters write in Yale Climate Connections, a deep dip in the jet stream that's been contributing to drought here in Vermont would have helped steer tropical storms or hurricanes away from the U.S. over the past couple weeks had they formed. 

Now, the pattern is changing with a northward bulge in the jet stream expected to form over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean. If a hurricane were to form over the next couple weeks, that pattern would make it a bit more likely for a tropical storm or hurricane to head toward the United States.

So we should hope the hurricane drought continues. 

Last year, as mentioned, the hurricane season perked up in dramatic fashion after the midseason lull. In 2022 the lull came a little later in the season, after devastating Hurricane Ian.  There were several tropical storms and a couple hurricanes after Ian, but those mostly formed late in the season - October and November. 

I guess all we can do this year is whatever is keeping hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic keeps it up. Then again, up here in drought-stricken Vermont, I wouldn't mind the heavy rainfall from a dying tropical storm.  

Still A Lull In Atlantic Hurricanes, But Pacific Busy, Hawaii On Guard

Hone passing south of Hawaii's Big Island over the weekend.

 An odd lull in tropical storm and hurricane activity continues for now in the Atlantic Ocean, with no signs of a new tropical storm forming for the next few days. 

The Pacific Ocean side of things has gotten busy, though. And that includes a menace to Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Hone (pronounced "ho-NEH") increased to hurricane intensity with top winds of 80 mph as it passed south of the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday.  

The storm brought tropical storm force winds to parts of the Big Island, along with more than half a foot of rain on slopes that faced the east winds created by Hone. 

Flash flooding was reported in some areas, but overall damage wasn't too bad. A landslide blocked a highway.  High winds blew the roof off at least one home.

Hone weakened somewhat back down to a tropical storm once it got past Hawaii.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Gilma, once a powerful Category 4 hurricane is moving westward in the general direction of Hawaii. It should be somewhere near Hawaiian Islands by the end of the week. But by then, forecasters said, Gilma will have weakened to a swirl of relatively weak winds and showers. 

ATLANTIC

The expected super busy Atlantic hurricane season went into a big stall over the past week with fortunately no activity.  This was a bit unexpected as we approach the peak of what should be hurricane season.  

A welcome sight over the past weeks. No forecasted
tropical storms in the Atlantic from the National Hurricane
Center. This image was on their page Tuesday morning. 

This time of year, disturbances often move off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean, where some of them turn into tropical storms or hurricanes. 

 Some meteorologists are saying that in the past couple weeks, the disturbances are moving off the African coast further north than usual.

That puts the disturbances in cooler, drier air than they'd be in had they been further south. The cool, dry air tends to suppress development. 

Ocean temperatures are really warm out there, which is great for developing hurricanes. But the upper atmosphere far above the ocean is also oddly warm.  You need a contrast between a hot ocean and a cold upper atmosphere to create the thunderstorms that eventually turn into hurricanes. 

The lack of a contrast now seems to be helping prevent those thunderstorms from developing.

That said, signs point to tropical activity finally, unfortunately ramping up, perhaps as early as this weekend.  Disturbances coming off the African coast look like they might start drifting further south into the warm, humid air they need to develop.

Other factors also seem to be coming together in the tropical Atlantic to produce storms. So things might get busy after all. By Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center began watching two areas of interest. One stormy area, not far from Bermuda, isn't expected to amount to much. But another system in the middle of the tropical Atlantic. 

That said, there's still no guarantee that new tropical storms will form in the coming week or two. And if they do, it's far, far, far too early to know where they might form and where they'd go.