Hurricane Season 2024 Finally Comes To An End, Good Riddance!

Hurricane Helene approaching Florida in September. This
hurricane proved to be the United States' deadliest hurricane
since Katrina in 2005. The 2024 hurricane season, which
ended Saturday, was among the most destructive on record.

 Back on Saturday, we said our goodbyes to the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024.

And we also told it to don't let the door hit you on your ass on the way out.  It turned out to be a troublesome one, that's for sure. 

As NPR reports, it was the deadliest hurricane season in two decades and easily one of the costliest. Five hurricanes hit the continental United States in 2024, a near-record for the most hits in a single season. 

Hurricane Helene alone snuffed out 150 lives, the biggest death toll from a single hurricane in the United States since 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

Damage from this year's hurricanes amount to at least $190 billion, the second most costly hurricane year after 2017. That was the year that brought us Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

As we head into the Christmas season, thousands of people are still experiencing heartache, loss, fear, homelessness and financial ruin because of this year's hurricanes 

For the record 2024 brought us 18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Eleven of those storms became hurricanes (74 mph or greater) and five were major hurricanes (111 mph or greater)

The second half of the season was when most of the action happened. Twelve named storms formed after what is normally the season's peak in early September. Seven hurricanes formed after September 25, which is the most for that late in the season. 

We were warned back in the spring this would be a hyper hurricane season, as near record warm ocean temperatures and a favorable atmospheric setup would turbocharge the season, leading to a possibly record number of hurricanes.  Some estimates indicated we'd have more tropical storms and hurricanes than names in the 2024 queue for these storms.

But the last tropical storm of the season was Sara, leaving three unused names this year, Tony, Valerie and William.

Normally there would have been additional storms in August and the first week of September, which is near the peak of the season. All the ingredients seemed to be there for storms, but they just didn't materialize during that period. It was an odd mid-season lull

Meteorologists will probably spend years studying why the hurricanes mercifully shut down during those weeks in August. 

Some leading theories include the idea that disturbances moving off the west coast ofAfrica - which often eventually develop into hurricanes - were too far north this year, missing out on the very warm waters further south that would fuel these storms.

Also, to get a hurricane going, the upper atmosphere should be cooler than the air near the surface. That would create instability to few the thunderstorms that are the seeds of hurricanes.

This year, the atmosphere was warm through tens of thousands of feet in elevation. That prevented the needed instability to create nascent tropical storms. 

Those meteorologists will study if these really were the factors preventing hurricanes in August and whether climate change had anything to do with these atmospheric conditions. That research will help with predictions of future hurricane season, and individual hurricanes. 

Two of the season's hurricanes managed to cause damage here in Vermont. 

In July, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl (which was the earliest Category 5 Atlantic storm on record in the Caribbean) teamed up with a stalled weather front to unleash intense downpours, especially across much of central and northern Vermont. The result was the state's third catastrophic flood within a year.   

In early August, the remnants of Hurricane Debby blasted much of Vermont with high winds, especially the Champlain Valley. 

Both storms proved you don't have to be anywhere close to where a hurricane made landfall to have those storms cause real trouble.  

Debby Was A Vermont Windbag, But We Dodged A Huge Flood Bullet

Vermont mostly avoided flood damage from former
Tropical Storm Debby. Further west in New York,
some of the damage was extreme, such as in this
photo of Canisteo, New York. Photo by Bob
Lonsberry via Facebook.

 I was playing pick up sticks in my yard Saturday evening. 

There are so many small and medium sized branches down from those strong winds we had Friday evening from former Tropical Storm Debby. It's a project that probably will continue for days. 

Count myself very lucky, though. I have no damage.  And bonus: The gales knocked down a pretty good sized dead tree that I was planning on cutting down. Saved me work, and the dead tree didn't land on anything I care about. 

Meanwhile, more than 8,000 homes and businesses, almost all of them in northwestern Vermont, were still without power as of 7 a.m. this morning. That's 36 hours after the winds arrived. With all the trees and wires down, it's going to take awhile to fix everything. 

People are also dealing with homes with roof and other damage either from high winds or falling trees. Cars have been damaged or destroyed, too. Large trees are a real mess to clean up.

But notice I haven't mentioned flooding so far. 

Vermont really dodged a bullet on that one, given there were only a handful of reports of minor water damage here and there. No big deal at all.

That's awesome for us, as early forecast had us getting battered by inches and inches of rain. We braced for another flood disaster.

But, as forecasts became clear on Thursday, former Debby's path was taking a jog to the west. That meant the torrential rain would become somebody else's disaster.

Sadly, there were many thousands of somebody elses who dealt with flooding - in many cases catastrophic - from Sarasota, Florida to Montreal and the Laurentian Mountains of Quebec, Canada. 

There were some impressive rainfall totals in Vermont, so I imagine there is some flood problems that haven't been reported in the media.  But nothing catastrophic. 

The rain in Vermont apparently stopped just in time, right before anything really bad happened. Elmore and Corinth, Vermont reported just under four inches of rain from former Debby. There were many, many Vermont reports of between two and three inches of rain. 

Head a little west into New York State, though, and things got seriously worse. In northwestern New York, North Lawrence reported 7.35 inches of rain. North Emeryville and Fort Covington, New York also saw more than seven inches of rain. There were many reports of four to six inches. Flooding got pretty bad in and near New York's St. Lawrence Valley. 

That flooding crossed the border in Quebec. Montreal has 6.18 inches of rain Friday, the wettest day in that city's history. The flooding in Quebec closed at least 100 roads, forced hundreds to evacuate and set off landslides in the Laurentians northeast of Montreal. 

The epicenter of the worst flooding was in southwestern New York and northern Pennsylvania. Video showed water roaring through a neighborhood in Canisteo, New York, uprooting trees and sheds. Other towns were devastated as well.  Small communities across northern Pennsylvania were inundated, reminiscent of the floods Vermont endured back in July.

Downtown Annapolis, Maryland was under as much as three feet of water from Debby's storm surge Friday. Down in Sarasota, Florida, close to a foot of rain swamped numerous neighborhoods. 

Vermonters dodged another bullet, too. Former Debby prompted tornado watches up and down the East Coast from Florida to Vermont. 

There ended up being close to three dozen tornadoes associated with Debby from Florida to the lower Hudson Valley in New York. Despite the tornado watch in the southern half of Vermont Friday, there were no twisters in the Green Mountain State. 

Now that Debby's gone, much quieter, though at times unsettled weather is moving into the Northeast for several days at least. No extreme are in the forecast for now. But give it time. I'm sure more trouble will brew soon enough.  

Debby Does Damage, Surprises Vermont With Destructive, Dangerous Windstorm

 It wasn't flooding we should have worried about. 

Surf was really up in St. Albans Bay Friday evening
during our surprise high winds from former
Tropical Storm Debby.

All day long Friday, we watched, with breaths held, to see whether we'd see another destructive flood in Vermont, all due to former Tropical Storm Debby.  

As we now know this Saturday morning, it wasn't the rain we should have worried about. At least not in Vermont. There was very little flooding in the Green Mountain State. It was mostly in New York, Pennsylvania and Quebec 

But former Tropical Storm Debby had one big surprise parting shot for Vermont as it lifted into Quebec Friday evening:  

Debby was quite a blowhard in the end. The wind nailed us. Big time.  Especially in the Champlain Valley. 

It was quite a surprise. 

DAMAGE REPORTS

Forecasters knew well ahead of time there would be strong winds, especially in western Vermont. A wind advisory issued well in advance warned of wind gusts up to 50 mph that could knock down a few trees and power lines. 

The wind, however, was stronger, and more widespread than anybody thought. The wind gusted to 62 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. I can't ever recall wind speeds that strong in the summer, outside of severe thunderstorms of course. 

Other areas in the Champlain Valley also had gusts to near 60 mph, possibly more in some spots, judging from damage reports. 

Following is just a few incidents I ran across. (Some might be unofficial reports, but they are reliable). Also, it's just a sampling of the trouble the high winds caused. It's definitely not a complete accounting. 

A tree apparently crushed a house in Alburgh, trapping a resident inside. Colchester Technical Rescue had to go up and get the person out, and the Red Cross was helping with displaced residents. 

Debris blowing from this house in St. Albans, Vermont
Friday evening after strong winds tore off a metal roof. 

Another tree fell on a car in Fairfax and there were reports of injuries. I don't know how serious. Trees were also reported down on houses in Swanton and Williston. Probably other towns, too. 

In St. Albans Bay, I witnessed the wind rip a metal roof off of a house.  Roads in St. Albans - like so many other spots in Vermont, were littered with fallen branches and trees. 

Middlebury Police advised residents to stay off the roads, as many of the town's streets were blocked by fallen trees and wires. Milton Police issues similar warnings. Route 116 was closed near Middlebury and Bristol due to fallen trees.  Route 116 in the middle of Starksboro was also blocked by fallen trees. 

A traffic signal was seen dangling dangerously low and broken on busy Williston Road in South Burlington. 

It was dangerous out there, as you'd imagine. I was removing a large branch from the middle of Georgia Shore Road near the Georgia/St. Albans line. A big gust came up and I heard a large tree cracking next to me. And I was under power lines. So I decided to abandon that little project and move on. 

At its worse last evening, more than 49,000 Vermont homes and businesses were without power. As of 6:15 a.m today, more than 26,000 customers were still out. The outages were distributed statewide, but were most numerous in the Champlain Valley. 

If there was any saving grace, the high winds really last only a couple of hours before quickly diminishing. 

FLOODING AVOIDS VERMONT, BUT....

Another good thing, of course, was the lack of new flooding in Vermont. The initial band of rain Friday morning was heavier than expected, so that raised some fears. 

A new band of torrential rains arrived in Vermont in the late afternoon and evening, just as expected. But that line of downpours cosplayed and Olympic sprinter, and raced in and out of Vermont before it could linger enough to do any harm. 

This small branch got stabbed into my St. Albans,
Vermont lawn when it was blown off a tree in
Friday evening's strong winds. (My property sustained
no damage other than small branches blown down).

The heaviest rain fell to our west and southwest, in New York and Pennsylvania, where the flooding was described as catastrophic in some areas. 

More than six inches of rain hammered parts of the Montreal, Quebec area, causing severe flooding there, too. 

Back here in Vermont, meteorologists will definitely spend a lot of time examining how they missed anticipating the strong winds - nobody, not any meteorologist I know if, not any computer models I know of - predicted it would get that bad. 

That's not at all a slam against the National Weather Service office in South Burlington or any other Vermont meteorologist. A storm transitioning from tropical to non-tropical, moving pretty much overhead over complex terrain is a nightmare to forecast. 

UP NEXT

Quieter weather is on top in Vermont for the foreseeable future. Debby is way out of our hair now. Today will actually be quite nice, with partly sunny skies, a nice breeze and warm temperatures near 80.

A dip in the jet stream and a cool pool of air aloft will keep things unsettled tomorrow, Monday and perhaps beyond. 

The cool air in the upper atmosphere will encourage instability. That will turn on the scattered shower activity Sunday afternoon through at least Monday. It won't rain continuously, and any rain won't be nearly heavy enough to cause flood problems. 

I also don't see signs of any temperature extremes for at least the next week. 

 

Early Afternoon Vermont Flood Update: Western Vermont/NY Getting Most Of It for Now

Weather radar was really lit up, especially in New York and
northwestern Vermont as of 1 p.m. or so. Expect the heavy 
rain to continue focusing on New York, but some of it
will spread further in Vermont, raising flash flood
threats in the Green Mountain State as well. 

UPDATE: 2 PM

Tornado watch just issued for Vermont from Addison and Windsor counties south until 10 p.m. tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far today, rainfall continued to exceed expectations a little bit, so wary meteorological eyes continue to watch what happens with the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby in Vermont through this evening. 

The good news is there's been a relative lull in rainfall in the eastern half of Vermont, which means rivers that were starting to rise sharply have stabilized. A flood warning that was in effect for the area around St. Johnsbury, Lyndonville and Barton has expired. They're not entirely out of the woods, as more heavy rain is due there later, but at least there's a break.

Western Vermont, especially the immediate Champlain Valley and in through most of Franklin County in the northwest, along with New York State, has been and is seeing the bulk of the rain as of 1 p.m.

A flood warning went up around Essex, New York and on across the lake around Vergennes, Ferrisburgh and Charlotte as a particularly intense blast of rain went through that neck of the woods at mid-morning. 

Another, more serious looking flood warning just went up after 12 noon for a region on either side of the northern portion of Lake Champlain. In Vermont, this is in northwest Chittenden County, Franklin and Grand Isle counties. Basically from Colchester north. Up to 2.5 inches of rain has already fallen there. Up to another 2.5 inches of rain could fall, so that could be really serious.

I see that Plattsburgh, New York had already gotten a storm total of two inches of rain as of 1 p.m, and it was still raining pretty hard there. 

So far the only report of trouble with this is about three or four inches of water on Interstate 89, a little north of Exit 16 in Colchester 

 Northern New York got no real break from the heavy rain, so that's where the most serious concern for flooding is right now. There's already a huge area of flash flood warnings in southwestern New York centered around Binghamton. That torrential rain seems destined to head toward the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley later today.

Rainfall rates this afternoon over in New York could be one to two inches per hour. Some places in the Adirondacks could get five inches of rain. With the steep terrain over there, flash flooding could get pretty scary.

We'll also have to watch and see whether that concentrated area of rain clips far northwestern Vermont later, because of all the rain that's fallen there. For the rest of Vermont, we still have to worry some about flash floods, especially when the heaviest rain gets here in the late afternoon and early evening. 

As the center of former Tropical Storm Debby draws nearer this afternoon, we'll have to be on the look out for embedded thunderstorms, a few of which might contain damaging winds. 

The thunderstorm risk for western Vermont from Burlington south has been upgraded from level 1 marginal risk  to level 2 slight risk, which suggests there could be more than just isolated trouble with today's storms. 

In this western Vermont slight risk, there's a 5 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. Yeah, that's low odds to be sure, but more than we usually see in Vermont. There's a decent chance of a quick spinup, but of course that's far from guaranteed. If a spinup happens, it could come at dusk or after dark, making such an event that bit more dangerous. 

That said, rainfall patterns have been transitioning from a steady if sometimes heavy rain to more cellular type things. That means heavy showers and thunderstorms. With this new regime this afternoon and evening, the rainfall might be less constant and include some breaks, but when the rain does come, it will often be ferocious. 

Winds should really pick up in western Vermont especially today as the circulation of former Debby comes closer. We still expect winds to gust to 50 mph in a few spots. This is just regular winds, outside any severe thunderstorms. So power outages are a decent bet here and there. 

Since we're not entering the heart of the storm danger period - lasting from now into the evening - stay weather aware and pay attention for  any flood or severe storm warnings that might be issued over then next several hours. 

 

Friday Morning Vermont Debby Update: Early Rain Over-Performs; Flood/Wind Risk Continues

The National Weather Service in South Burlington 
released this rainfall prediction map. It includes what
already fell, and what will come down through 
Saturday morning. As you can see, New York
gets the heaviest rain. We'll have to watch for
pockets of locally heavier rain in Vermont that
might not be depicted in this map. Still, more than
two inches of rain is fairly impressive .

 The first batch of heavy rain associated with former Tropical Storm Debby lifted through Vermont overnight and early this morning as expected. 

Unfortunately, it over-performed in central and northern Vermont dumping more rain than predicted in many areas. That primes the pump, so to speak, for possible additional flooding later today.

We can also expect some wind damage in parts of Vermont today, along with isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. There's even a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado this afternoon or evening. 

Despite the trouble brewing in Vermont, the bigger threat for flash flooding has continued to focus on northern New York and a little less on the Green Mountain State for this event. 

Let's take it step by step again.

THIS MORNING

You probably did hear the occasional roar of downpours on your roof overnight and early this morning. One to 1.5 inches of rain, with spot amounts to two inches fell in a band from eastern Addison County, through Barre-Montpelier and on off to St. Johnsbury. 

Both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury reported about 1.7 inches of rain already as of 7 a.m. since this all started last night. 

This is precisely the wrong area to see the heaviest rain, as that zone has experienced the worst of the flooding this summer. 

Already, a flood warning was posted this morning for parts of the Northeast Kingdom from St. .Johnsbury to points north and west including Lyndonville and Barton.

 This Northeast Kingdom region is especially prone to added flood damage because the hasty repairs to roads and culverts after the massive July 30 flash flood are not stable or complete. So the added downpours this morning could be causing more damage.

All that said, the biggest flood threat from the remnants of Debby today are across northern New York, where the heaviest rain is falling, and will fall.

The Mad River at Moretown rose by more than three feet in just a few hours early this morning, but appeared to be stabilizing below flood stage at dawn. Still, since river levels are now higher than expected, that increases the chances somewhat that flooding could occur this evening. 

All that said, the biggest flood threat remains in New York. But Vermont will need to be watched closely today. 

TODAY

You might notice a lull in the rain for awhile this morning but it will pick up again. The steady, heavy rain today and this evening will focus on New York State, but there will be fitful showers and storms throughout the day across Vermont.

The showers, rain and downpours will tend to be out concentrated from mid or late afternoon into the evening. That's probably when we'll have our biggest risk of any flash flooding. Again, it's one of those cases where not everybody has a crisis. Most places should be fine with the amount of rain we received and are about to get. 

However, some places will be dealing with washed out roads, basement flooding and other problems you get with intense rainfall rates.

We'll have to watch rainfall rates and whether any particular spot is hit by repeated downpours. If  former Debby behaves as expected, Vermont flooding problems will probably be relatively minor - mostly nuisance level - at least in most cases.  If former Debby really over-performs with especially heavy downpours, all bets are off. 

The National Weather Service and other meteorologists are watching this closely.  

There's other trouble brewing today, too: 

Wind

The remnants of Debby still have some wind energy.  That will channel gusts from south to north up the Champlain Valley. Also, southeast wind going up and over the Green Mountains will tend to grab some higher speed winds from aloft and bring them to the surface.

It's the classic western slope windstorm type deal we sometimes get in the winter. So, the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the Champlain Valley and western slopes of the Greens. A wind advisory like this is fairly common in the winter, but very rare in the summer. But here we are. 

For today, all this will result in possible gusts in a few spots of up to 50 or 55 mph. That's enough to break branches and uproot a few trees and take down a few power lines.  Remember, trees uproot more readily when the ground is wet and soggy, so that will be an issue. 

Severe Storms/Tornado?

With any tropical or former tropical system, you often seen rotating storms, especially along and east of the storm's track. That could happen in Vermont. I would say if this does happen, it's most likely along or south of Route 2. 

A few storms could develop strong, damaging winds.  Since these storms will be rotating, we can't rule out a brief tornado somewhere in the state. The chances are low, but they're definitely not zero. These kinds of things with tropical type systems can develop and fade fast, so you might not much advance warning, if any warning, in the case of anything developing. 

IT ENDS QUICKLY

The heavy rain and wind will shut down quickly in Vermont tonight.  Western areas might see things settle down by 9 p.m., and by midnight or so east. Runoff from the heavy rain will continue to be an issue overnight, so we'll need to watch how river levels go. 

Most of the river flooding will be in northern New York. But we'll need to keep our eye on the Mad River, and possibly a few others. If any rivers do flood in Vermont, strong chances are it would be minor flooding, not the major flooding we saw in July.

All bets are off, though, if the rain today is much heavier than forecast. 

Saturday actually still looks like a nice summer day. Showers should re-develop Sunday afternoon and evening, but they shouldn't be intense enough to cause any new flood worries. 

Thursday Evening Update: Flood Risk Continues In Vermont/New York With Debby; Rather Weird Weather, Too

Expected rainfall amounts through Saturday with
the remnants of Debby. Less rain is expected in
Vermont than earlier forecasts, which will help prevent
another big flood disaster. But local flash loods
are still a real risk. 

As advertised, clouds increased this afternoon across Vermont and surrounding areas as now ex- Tropical Storm Debby makes its way towards us.  If it isn't raining where you are when you read this, it will soon.  

THE BIG PICTURE

Already, as of 5 p.m. rain had moved into far southern Vermont and in northwestern New York. There were a few heavy downpours embedded with that rain. A sign of things to come. 

The overall forecast for its track, timing and duration hasn't changed much since this morning. The 5 p.m update from the National Hurricane Center actually has it moving a little faster than they predicted this morning. 

This morning, the projection was former Debby would be over northern Vermont as of 2 a.m. Saturday. Now, it's expected to be just north of the northern tip of New Hampshire at that hour.

The faster former Debby moves the better, as it would have less time to dump a bunch of rain on us. 

Heaviest rain is still expected to be across northern New York with this thing with somewhat lighter totals in Vermont. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has updated its flood watches, expanding the watch across all of the northern half of Vermont except the Champlain Valley. 

Although trends have continued to minimize the threat of another mega-flood disaster in the Green Mountain State, instances of flooding, washouts, that kind of thing are still definitely in play. 

That northern Vermont flood watch was put in place largely because areas hard hit by the two other big floods this summer are especially vulnerable to heavy rain. 

The State of Vermont, and towns affected by that flooding hurriedly patched up washed out roads and culverts just to get the roads open. More permanent repairs come later. 

Since a lot of those quick repairs are ad hoc, they're not particularly  resilient against heavy rains. So downpours associated with ex-Debby that in normal times wouldn't be that big a deal are. Ex-Debby might undo a lot of the work that's been done in the past month. 

STEP BY STEP OUTLOOK

Tonight

Overnight, chances are you'll hear the occasional roar of quick downpours on your roof, interspersed with periods of lighter rain or no rain. Overall, radar has rain coming in quicker than I thought, so you might see a shower even before sunset. 

Overnight, rainfall will only amount to maybe a quarter of an inch in southern Vermont, with locally higher amounts. Northern Vermont can expect maybe a half inch to an inch. 

This won't be enough to trigger flooding but will prime the pump for possible flooding later, as I noted this morning. 

Friday/Friday Evening

A weird, tropical day. There might be a lull in the rainfall early in the morning, but it should pick up in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  The day will feel incredibly humid and south winds could get a little gusty with this, too.

 Former Debby is still expected to cross over northwestern Vermont. With tropical storms and former tropical storms thunderstorms tend to develop along and east of the path, with a steady, heavy rain west.

So the steady, heavy rain will mostly stick to New York. 

The more sporadic nature of the numerous showers and storms will make things a bit challenging for forecasters. Areas of flash flooding - and flash flood warnings - won't become apparent until the actual flood is underway, or the flooding is just minutes away.

Though we know that most of us will receive one to two inches of rain, there could be much higher totals in a couple spots if storms hit the same spot over and again.

If we do see any flash flooding with this, the best chance of it hitting are between early afternoon and midnight Friday.

Definitely be ready to hear any flash flood or severe thunderstorm warnings that might be issued tomorrow. It will be an active day and evening .

Some of the storms could end up being severe, with a few reports of damaging gusts definitely possible.  Vermont is now in a marginal risk for severe storms Friday and Friday evening, meaning there could be isolated instances of damage. I do wonder whether that risk level will be upgraded to slight tomorrow, which is a slightly higher risk of severe weather. 

Tropical systems can be prolific tornado producers. There have already been several in the Southeast. There is a low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup with former Debby in Vermont tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Could happen anywhere in the state. If it does happen, the best chance is in southwestern Vermont. 

Outside of those severe storms, winds could gust to 40 mph in spots Friday afternoon and evening. That could be enough to push over a few trees. Remember, wind can uproot trees more easily if the soil is wet and soggy. So expect a few widely scattered power outages, even if no severe thunderstorms develop.

Saturday

Since this ex-Debby thingy will be rocketing by so fast, it now looks like Saturday will be a nice day. Although the chances of serious river flooding in Vermont appears low, we'll have to watch those water levels, especially Saturday morning if the rain we get Friday and Friday evening turns out to be heavier than expected. 

Some Cautious Optimism This Morning Regarding Debby, Flooding And Vermont

 I'll make one thing clear: 

Expected rainfall with Debby. One to two inches expected
in most of eastern Vermont, with two to four
inches northwest and mountains. Note that this is
a broad brush map. Locally higher amounts could
be embedded in some areas. 

There's definitely still a flood risk here in Vermont as we await the arrival of what will then be former Tropical Storm Debby.  Chances are more than decent there will be at least some damage around somewhere in Vermont. 

But - fingers and toes crossed big time - this is looking less like the wholesale new big disaster for Vermont than it did two or three days ago.

OVERALL TRENDS/NEWS

Forecast trends continue to keep remnant Debby zipping by and heading to Canada really quickly, which would limit the time the storm has to dump torrential downpours. And while those downpours are likely in at least part of Vermont, the biggest focus for them should be in the Adirondacks.

Not that I want that to happen. I'd  hate to see the kind of destruction in New York that we saw in Vermont earlier this summer.  But Vermont can sure live without another big flood, too. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has almost all of Vermont in a moderate risk zone for flooding with this. That's level 3 of 4 on the risk scale and definitely a sign of potential trouble. That said. it's possible that moderate risk in Vermont might be trimmed back later today in some areas if relatively happy forecast trends continue. We shall see! 

We're not completely out of the woods, of course. As mentioned, we're going to get some pretty stiff downpours. And there's still a few question marks regarding the exact track of what will be former Debby. 

For now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is confident enough about heavy rain in the Adirondacks to issue a flood watch there.  No flood watch is in Vermont, at least not yet. There's some high resolution data that was just coming in early this morning they wisely want to take a look at first before making any decisions on whether to hoist any flood watches in the Green Mountain State. 

I notice flood-spooked Vermonters are taking no chances, which is a smart move. The city of Barre, repeatedly hit hard by recent floods, is making sandbags available for residents and businesses. 

Let's walk you through what meteorologists think will unfold as this thing goes by. As you're reading, remember, the forecast is subject to change. The paths of tropical storms and former tropical storms can be really unpredictable.

TODAY

Another nice one as the humidity remains low and bright sunshine bathes the state. At least for awhile. You'll notice increasing high cloudiness this afternoon, as what will be former Debby begins its charge toward us. 

It'll be a seasonably warm day with highs in the 77 to 83 degree range most valleys

TONIGHT

The burst of high humidity that tropical systems always bring along with them will ooze quickly in, turning the night from refreshing to muggy by morning. This blast of humidity will trigger a band of rain with a few embedded heavy downpours and thunderstorms. 

This won't be enough to trigger any flooding, but could prime the pump for flooding that might come with later bursts of downpours from Debby.

FRIDAY

It's going to be kind of a weird, tropical day. That band of initial rain will move out.  You'll notice the oppressive, awful humidity we had through most of July and the opening days of August will be back. Don't worry, this outbreak of air you can wear will be brief.

Especially on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain, there could be fairly long periods during the day with no rain at all. Or, there will be fitful, quick hitting showers that might not amount to all that much.

At first.

But especially if we see a fair number of breaks in the clouds, that could destabilize the air and trigger some torrential thunderstorms. We'll have to watch those for the risk of any isolated instances of afternoon and evening local flash floods. There won't be anything widespread, if anything at all, but it will be worth watching.

FRIDAY NIGHT

The heart of the storm, and when the greatest risk of flash flooding might happen. The steady, heavy rain should continue all night in the Adirondacks. Debby is actually using Vermont as sort of a meet up spot with a cold front coming in from the west.  

The two will team up to come through Vermont probably with a band of heavy downpours. (Latest projections from the National Hurricane Center has the center of former Tropical Storm Debby about over Morrisville at 2 a.m. Saturday). 

The band of storms will be moving fairly fast, but since the rain will come down so hard, in many cases on already sopping wet soil, the risk of flash flooding goes up. Note that nighttime flash floods are dangerous, as they're hard to see and you might be sleeping when warnings go up. Have a way to wake up to warnings if you live in a flood-prone area.

 There's cautious optimism on main rivers like the Mad, Winooski and Lamoille, and the Otter Creek. All those waterways will have sharp rises, but so far, only minor flooding at worst is in the forecast. That could change if rainfall amounts and patterns change from what is now in the forecast, but for now, again, fingers crossed. 

There might also be a problem with wind in spots overnight Friday. Even though former Debby will be rather weak by the time it gets here, there will still be a fair amount of energy with it. Strong winds aloft could mix down to the surface overnight. That's especially true perhaps along the western slopes of the Green Mountains and maybe the Champlain Valley.

We won't have any ferocious windstorms like we did this past January, but gusty winds hitting trees on soggy, unstable soil could topple a few of them, causing some scattered power outages.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

The remnants of Debbie should quickly scoot away, so most of the day should be rain-free. We'll need to watch how high main rivers get during the day, but as noted, I think we might be OK. We could really end up with a nice summer day on Saturday. 

Beyond that, a weak dip in the jet stream might promote scattered showers and rumbles of thunder, mixed with periods of sun Sunday through Tuesday. The showers will be light and widely scattered, and pose no flood threat. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Debby/Flood Outlook. Still Reasons To Worry

This afternoon's forecast track for what will then be
former Tropical Storm Debby has it centered right
over Burlington, Vermont at 2 am. Saturday. 

 The forecast trends on how Vermont fares with possible flooding from Tropical Storm Debby's anticipated remnants remain roughly the same. 

There's still plenty of cause for worry, and a few reasons for a bit of cautious optimism in some parts of the state. 

Maybe. 

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE APPROVED

Before we get into that, we should revel in what has been a rare for this summer Chamber of Commerce day we had in Vermont today. 

It was beautifully sunny, of course, with a scattering of fluffy clouds to make it all pretty. The sky was true blue, lacking the wildfire smoke that has been hazing up the atmosphere lately. Temperatures were totally comfortable, with highs in the 70s to around 80 in the warmest spots

Humidity was at rock bottom. If the dew point is in the 50s, that's regarding as comfortable. Dew points this afternoon across Vermont were in the  40s to near 50. Just delightful. 

Tonight will be clear and comfortable. Throw open those windows and let the fresh, cool air reinvigorate you and the air in your house. 

VERMONT DEBBY UPDATES

Now back to our regular Summer of '24 doom and gloom 

That westward trend in the forecasts for the expected path of Debby has stopped, and it is still forecast to go right over Vermont.  (Results may vary, it can still go a little west or a little east of us).

For what it's worth, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts what will then be former Tropical Storm Debby right smack dab over Burlington, Vermont at 2 a.m. Saturday.

This would still mean the heaviest rain might end up falling up in northwest Vermont and New York. That's not cast in stone, however. We still need to worry about possible flooding in many other parts of the Green Mountain State. 

Tropical Storm Debby, just off the coast of South
Carolina when this satellite photo was taken late
Wednesday afternoon, looks kind of 
disheveled, which is good if you don't want
a powerhouse tropical system menacing the East Coast.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is holding off just a little while longer while meteorologists there await the latest guidance on whether and where to post flood watches. 

I would rate the chances of seeing a flood watch in at least parts of Vermont appear by tomorrow morning.

With Debby going overhead or just to our west, you'll notice the high humidity surge back in tomorrow night as the first wave of rain arrives. 

 The rain Thursday night will mostly serve to wet everything down pretty good. That's what will help set the stage for the flood potential. 

The westward path might allow breaks in the clouds to form during the day Friday. 

That could well only encourage more torrential thunderstorms to eventually break out, adding to a potential flash flood threat. Thunderstorms near tropical systems often have incredible rainfall rates. 

Often four inches per hour. Luckily none of those torrential storms will last anywhere close to an hour in any one place. But they'll still carry flash flood risks. Especially if a couple or few hit the same spot.

Friday will be a humid, unsettled, tropical day to say the least. 

A tropical storm or former tropical storm passing to the west of Vermont can create some gusty south or southeast winds, much like a winter storm passing to our west can cause those damaging downslope winds. 

I don't expect anything super damaging out of this, as Debby isn't - and won't be - and especially powerful system. But with wet ground, some trees could be prone to uprooting in gusty winds. Nothing widespread, and not nearly as big a threat as the possible floods, but it's something to keep in mind. 

Also - and this isn't in any official forecasts I've seen - the east side of tropical and former tropical systems, once they're inland, can produce tornadoes.  It will be interesting if we get the right conditions for a quick spinup with Debby.  I'll wait for further forecasts to see if that low but non-zero risk indeed develops. 

The heaviest rain looks to come through Friday night, so at this point I'd say the period from late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning is the most likely time to see flooding if we get it. 

Current forecasts give most of Vermont at least one to three inches of rain out of this, with locally higher amounts. 

If the predictions for somewhat lighter rain in eastern Vermont pan out, that's good for two reasons. The first is the soils in the Northeast Kingdom are sopping wet, and a couple sunny days before the storm won't cure that.  

So if less rain falls, that might minimize the flood risk. Again, maybe. IF the heaviest rain stays west. For what it's worth, some models I've seen show a slug or band of very heavy rain moving through north central and northeast Vermont overnight Friday and early Saturday, so those areas are NOT out of the woods yet. 

Another reason to hope the heaviest rain stays west would be to prevent torrents from falling in the headwaters of the Winooski, Lamoille and Mad Rivers.  It would lessen the chance of those waterways going over their banks again 

VAGUE OPTIMISM

My guard is still way up with this storm. I still definitely worry Debby could cause another huge mess in Vermont. But that scenario is still not guaranteed,. If there's no guarantee, there's a little hope 

One reason for a tiny smidge of optimism is Tropical Storm Debby, just off the South Carolina coast late this afternoon, is less organized than some forecasts indicated. So its remnants might be a bit less intense than they otherwise would be.

Debby's remnants will race through here much faster than forecasts were indicating a couple days ago. That gives it less time to dump bucket loads of rain on us.,

The system is now expected to move so fast that we have a shot at a Saturday with fairly decent weather. 

As for whether Vermont suffers big time again, or manages to dodge another bullet, we really won't know until this hits. 

Debby, Flooding And Vermont: What We Know So Far

As of this morning, forecasts have the remnants of
Tropical Storm Debby going right over Vermont
early Saturday. That is actually a slightly better
scenario for us than if it were to go by a bit to
our east. But a big flood risk continues with this.

 As of this Wednesday morning, Vermont meteorologists are keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Debby, and what it means for the Green Mountain State.  

There's definitely the potential for additional, possibly serious flooding out of this.

 Just what we don't need given that we've had two big flood disasters last month, and really can't tolerate another.  Debby has already caused some really bad flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas, so we know this is a big bag of torrential rain. 

It's a little soon to guarantee a new flood disaster, but we still ought to be on alert. 

Anytime a tropical system comes our way, there's the potential for flooding.  Soils are already saturated in large sections of Vermont, especially the southern Champlain Valley, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont. 

At the moment, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a moderate risk zone for flooding Friday. That's level three out of four on an alert scale. It's rare to have a moderate risk posted two or  more days ahead of the event, so that's saying something. 

We know there's the potential for two to four inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. So we should get ready, just in case.  Both flash flooding and main stem river flooding are in play. 

FORECAST TRENDS

If you want to find glimmers of good news, there's a couple, though we are by no means out of danger. 

The expected track of the remnants of Debby, at least according to some computer forecasting models, keeps shifting a bit west.  Whereas almost all of the models yesterday had Debby passing by a little to our east, some of the latest ones have it going right overhead in Vermont. 

That sounds bad, but the heaviest rain with this type of system usually falls to the west of its track, not necessarily right underneath it.  That would put the most torrential rain in northwest New York and southern Quebec. The landscape is flatter there than it is in Vermont. 

In Vermont torrential rains rush off the mountains, leading to our dangerous flash floods. Flatter ground away from the Green Mountain State would minimize that. 

There's already a moderate risk
(Level 3 out of 4 alert level) for
flooding Friday and Saturday in
and around Vermont. 

Another trend we should hope will continue is that some models ramp up the forward speed of Debby's remnants. That means the downpours wouldn't linger as long, leaving less time for rainfall to pile up.

  Instead of soaking rains all day Friday and Saturday, the rain could shut off pretty quickly on Saturday. That is IF the forward track slows down. 

All that said, we shouldn't let our guard down. At all.

First of all, several computer models keep the center of Debby a little to our south and east. That would put Vermont in the crosshairs of the heaviest rains. 

Even if Debby takes a more westward path, we're absolutely not out of the woods. We might see less overall rain that way. Or at least the heaviest rain wouldn't be quite as widespread.

But the rain we'd get with this more inland journey for Debby would tend to come more in the form of intense showers and thunderstorms with super high rainfall rates here in Vermont.  

We saw a hint of that yesterday with an outbreak of downpours ahead of Debby in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York.  Islip, Long Island had about a half inch of rain in just five minutes.  Much of Hackensack, New Jersey was under water last evening. Flash flooding was widespread in that region. 

Those are the kinds of downpours we could see if Debby goes overhead or to our west. These would absolutely pose a nasty flash flood risk. So not great.

The timing of this would put Vermont in a flood risk from Friday morning, lasting well into Saturday.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST STILL

There's still a lot of questions as to Debby's exact path and speed, so there will surely be changes to the forecast leading up to Friday.  What we should hope for is a continued trend westward with Debby.  Again, absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

But the further west it goes, the better off we'll be in general. 

If you live in a flood prone area, now is the time to get ready.  We're a couple days away from the event, so you still have an opportunity to move stuff that can get damaged out of the way, if you can.  Even if we don't end up with a flood, getting ready like that is good practice for the inevitable future floods in Vermont. And if we do see a flood, you will have minimized damage some.

Of course, there's no way to move houses, businesses and farms out of harm's way, so we'd better hope we manage to dodge a bullet here. 

Stay tuned for updates! 

Refreshing Air Arrives In Vermont, But Frustrating Flood Potential Forecast For End Of Week

Forecast rainfall for the next seven days. Anything orange
is three inches or more. Darker shades near NYC indicate
at least five inches. Yellow in the Carolinas is over
ten inches. This forecast is big time subject to
change, especially in the Northeast. 

 As expected, it's much cooler and drier out there this morning, a state of affairs that will last most of the week.  

Clouds are forecast to gradually clear today after yesterday's rain. That rain was torrential in spots, nearly non-existent in others. 

Burlington received just 0.02 inches of rain. Meanwhile, a stripe of Addison County was under a flood warning for a time last evening as a patch of torrents passed through.

 Luckily, I've so far seen no reports of any serious damage in that neck of the woods. 

Now that we're done with the storms and oppressive weather,  there is pretty much no sign of any return to high temperatures combined with high humidity for the foreseeable future, so all good, right?

Unfortunately, no. Or at least maybe not. As I've mentioned a couple times already in previous posts, there's big time flood potential later in the week up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

We don't know yet whether that includes flood-weary Vermont. 

DEBBY DANGER

Tropical Storm Debby so far is pretty much following forecasts, meandering around the Southeast, dumping incredible amounts of rain that is and will cause historic flooding in swaths of Georgia and the Carolinas. 

It's about to limp its way from Georgia and park itself just offshore. Since the center will be a little off the coast, Debby will have a chance to re-strengthen for awhile. All that time, it will be slamming huge amounts of rain into Georgia and South Carolina. 

It'll take until about late Friday or Saturday for Debby or its remnants to become "unstuck" and head on off to the northeast at a decent pace. 

During this time, we'll have that cool high pressure near us, keeping us partly to mostly sunny through Thursday, though clouds might be thicker south. 

Meanwhile another storm will be coming in from the west. We know the combination of that system from the west and Debby will cause a dangerous flood situation up and down the East Coast.  What we don't know is exactly where that will happen. The question marks are biggest in New England. 

This is a situation for a classic set up know as a Predecessor Rain Event or PRE.  Often, ahead of a tropical system, an area of torrential rain will develop well to the north and west of the tropical storm. It often but not always forms in an area that will eventually get hit by the actual tropical storm or hurricane.

A PRE can develop as much as 600 miles north or west of a tropical storm, and they're really hard to forecast. That's why meteorologists are still hemming and hawing about where flooding rains will strike at the end of the week. 

VERMONT QUESTIONS

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out in its forecast discussion this morning, computer  models are still all over the place when it comes to where the heavy rain sets up in New England toward Friday and Saturday.

The models are sort of leaning toward the heaviest rain focusing on southern Vermont, but there is absolutely no unanimity among the computer models, and various runs of those models. 

 Some of them have a  best case scenario (for us, anyway) of having almost no rain over central and northern Vermont and bringing the bad stuff to southern New England.  

Other models have a worst case scenario of dumping inches of torrential rains smack dab over the middle of the Green Mountain State.  

Other computer models have something in between those two extremes.   

Obviously, we want to avoid the worse case scenario, especially after the kind of summer we've had so far. Some Vermont communities have had serious flooding five times in the past year.  We've had more than our fill. 

To get forecast clarity, we'll have to wait until we see how Debby's path evolves, and how Debby and its moisture interact with that storm system coming in from the west. 

Hopefully, we'll start to get a clear picture by Thursday, so that we have a little time to prepare for flooding, if that's the direction we're headed. We just don't know. 

Vermont (Mostly) Caught A Big Break Today, Not So In "Debby Zone" And Elsewhere

Hard to see in the photo, but a fairly drenching rain
began in St. Albans, Vermont late this afternoon.
The threat of severe storms and flash flooding,
however, has diminished to almost zero in central
and northern Vermont. 

 A weak disturbance running out ahead of our big, long awaited cold front saved the day in central and northern Vermont.  

Sure, it was overcast with areas of light rain pretty much all day, but that's much better than the flash flooding and severe storms we feared.

The disturbance and its light rain stabilized the atmosphere, so wild storms couldn't get going. 

Except in far southern Vermont, where a severe thunderstorm was heading into Bennington County as I write this around 6 p.m. That nasty storm looks like it will eventually make it into Windham County before exiting into southwest New Hampshire. 

It still looks like the rain might pick up some in central and northern Vermont this evening as the actual cold front comes in. 

Believe it or not, a few isolated spots in northwest Vermont could use the rain.  For instance, the past week's storms have avoided my place in St. Albans, where we had only 0.35 inches of rain in the ten days ending yesterday. 

We got precious little so far today, so I hope a band of heavier rain northwest of here holds together. Rain did seem to be picking up a bit as of 6 p.m. 

In any event, cool, generally dry weather is due tomorrow through Thursday. 

Vermont might not be entirely out of the rain and flood woods quite yet, though. We are still watching the possibility on Friday and Saturday of tropical moisture from Debby interacting with an another storm system coming in from the west. 

Worst case scenario is yet another nasty flood, but we're not ready to go there yet. It could still be a big huge nothingburger for us. There's already a level 2 out of four flood risk alert for Friday for all of the East Coast, including all of Vermont. So it bears watching.

ROUGH STUFF ELSEWHERE

Areas outside Vermont - places from New York and southern New England to Florida - either dealt with or bracing for rough weather.  

Screen grab of a tornado ripping through downtown
Buffalo, New York of all places today. 

A EF-1 tornado packing 90 mph winds swept through downtown Buffalo, New York of all places this afternoon, damaging buildings and trees and blocking streets. 

Meanwhile, former Hurricane Debby, now a tropical storm, has already caused four fatalities in Florida. The storm's forward motion, as expected, has slowed down to a crawl, setting the stage for catastrophic flooding in northern Florida, parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Among the places where concern is highest is Charleston, South Carolina.  Ocean storm surges caused by Debby will help block river water arriving from inland from going out to sea, instead backing it up in Charleston. 

Over the next week or less, up to 30 inches of rain could fall in South Carolina. Up to 10 inches might fall during that time from Virginia to southern New England. Flood watches are already in effect as far north as Connecticut. 

Debby Set To Cause Florida/Southeast Disaster; Lots of Questions Remain About Forecast Here In Vermont

Tropical Storm Debby had "that look" on satellite photos
this morning that suggested it wants to intensify
pretty fast before making landfall in northwestern
Florida sometime on Monday. 

 Yesterday's Wannabe Debby near Cuba is this morning's strengthening Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles west of Tampa. 

I decided to wait until late this morning to post, so I could get the most updated information on the tropical storm.  Debby's top sustained winds had increased to 65 mph by late this morning. It's getting close to becoming a hurricane. 

Debby is taking full advantage of extremely warm waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico so that it is getting stronger pretty quickly and will be a hurricane when it makes landfall in what is known as Florida's Big Bend on Monday. 

That Big Bend is the area in northwest Florida where the peninsula bends and transitions to the Florida panhandle.

Anyway, the forecast looks very sure on its path to that landfall, and there's even a chance it could be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. (That would mean sustained winds of at least 96 mph). 

After that, forecasters have serious questions as to what Debby will do next, but significant to maybe catastrophic flooding  (here we go again!) is likely somewhere in the Southeast.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we have our own forecasts questions, unrelated, at least for now to Tropical Storm Debby. More on that further down.

DEBBY

This is becoming an unpleasant trend.  Climate change and other factors have led to record  or near record high water temperatures in most of the areas where hurricanes form and grow. This is jet fuel for hurricanes, and we keep seeing hurricanes become monsters as a result.

That's why Hurricane Beryl earlier this summer managed to become a Category 5 beast in the Caribbean. It's why Hurricane Michael back in 2018 was able to slam into roughly the same spot in Florida  as a Category 5 calamity that Debby will hit. The hot water is one major reason why we had so many other intense hurricanes in recent years.     

The saving grace with Debby is it won't have all that much time over water where it can strengthen. It only has about 24 hours to do so. But a lot can change in a day, so we'll really have to watch the intensity of this thing.

Debby already had those sustained winds of 65 mph late this morning, as mentioned.As you can see in the visible satellite photo of Debby this morning it has "that look" that suggests it really wants to turn powerful. The inner core of the storm still wasn't completely well organized as of early this morning. How fast that core gets its act together will determine how strong it gets. 

One rather ominous sign is that Debby was showing signs of forming a central eye late this morning, indicating that its organizational skills are pretty good. 

In any event, Florida's Big Bend can expect damaging winds, a ferocious, destructive storm surge and torrential rains.  The storm surge could be made bigger by two factors: Debby's overall size is pretty big, which means it can push more water into a storm surge. Also, that bend in the coastline along that part of Florida can compress incoming water from the left and right, causing higher surges.

That's why mandatory evacuations are ongoing today in areas near where Debby will make landfall.

That torrential rain will become the main, worrisome feature of Debby in the coming days. 

Uncertain Path, Big Rain Dump

The trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that is steering Debby toward Florida's Big Bend is dissipating and moving on, which will leave very little to push Debby in any particular direction after it makes landfall. 

When hurricanes make landfall, their strong winds quickly collapse into much lighter breezes. But these systems generate torrential rainfall for days after landfall. That's part of the reason we had a destructive flood here in Vermont back on July 10-11.  The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which had made landfall in Texas days earlier, was able to contribute torrential downpours to a stalled weather front over Vermont. 

One problem is we don't know if the center of Debby will linger inland over the Southeast, or manage to  make its way just off the coast of Georgia or South Carolina. Either way, destructive flooding from inland downpours is inevitable. But if Debby goes off the coast, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen before moving back inland. 

No matter what happens, Debby is going to be a big problem in the Southeast starting today and going right through the week. 

In fact, due in part to Debby, more than enough rain to cause flooding is a decent bet at various times from now through next weekend anywhere from Florida to Maine. Which leads us to talk about Vermont. 

Spoiler: It's not dire, but we do have to watch the weather.

VERMONT FORECAST

The humidity grinds on. We are now on Day 6 in a row at Burlington in which the temperature failed to dip below 70 degrees. Saturday was the 14th day this year in Burlington which made it to 90 degrees. That's a tie for seventh most in a year. 

The Lake Champlain lake temperature was bath water this morning - 82 degrees which has to be a record high. 

We have 24 hours of oppressive humidity left in Vermont before the long awaited big change comes. Maybe a little more than 24 hours south. But it's coming. 

Until then, we have the ever-present risk of torrential showers and thunderstorms. They're always a risk in this kind of weather. 

Seems like every thunderstorm makes you worry, because we're spooked by the twin flash floods of July, and the other floods we endured last year. 

One storm popped up near Bolton and Huntington last evening that lingered for a bit. But luckily, it moved on and weakened just before it could cause major trouble.  I noticed a flood advisory for a corner of far southwestern Vermont early this morning, and locally  heavy rain was going on in spots in far southern parts of the state as of mid-morning.

More hit and miss storms are a good bet this afternoon and evening. Once again, many places won't see anything. Other places will get a quick drenching but otherwise not a big deal. But isolated places once again face the risk of microbursts, which would cause small pockets of wind damage, and isolated flash floods. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk (level one of five) of severe storms today. Southern Vermont is under a marginal risk (level one of four) of flash flooding today. I think northern Vermont has a very low, but not zero chance of one or two flash floods. NOT a panic moment, for sure. 

Monday

The risk of severe storms and flash flooding will rise somewhat in Vermont as that long-awaited cold front comes in. It'll arrive early enough north of Route 2 to suggest the risk of severe storms is very, very low. We are under a marginal risk of flash flooding in all but far southern Vermont due to some downpours expected along the front.  

But in central and southern Vermont, there is the risk of severe storms. Morning sunshine will increase instability before the cold front pushes in, so we'll have time to see scattered severe storms to develop. Those areas are under level 2 risk of severe storms. 

Although rain might linger into the evening, we're still expecting the start of the longest period of coolish, low humidity days we've seen in quite some time.  Tuesday through Thursday look great, though some minor questions in the forecast mean there's a non-zero chance of light showers Tuesday, and maybe Thursday. 

Beyond that, we have HUGE question marks. During our break from the oppressive weather, that deep heat and moisture will be lurking not too far to our south.  It could surge back northwards at least briefly toward the end of the week. Plus nobody has any idea what Debby or its remnants might do. 

So stay tuned on that.  

Wannabe Debby, Florida, Heat, Humidity, Vermont And You

Satellite view of what will become Tropical Storm
Debby as it was just starting to organize near Cuba
on Friday. It poses a threat to Florida in the coming days. 

 The heat drones on here in Vermont, where Burlington on Friday had its 13th day this summer with temperatures in the 90s. 

It was still above 70 degrees at dawn today in Burlington, the fifth consecutive morning of such stuffy conditions. 

People aren't getting much relief from Lake Champlain, either. We've had so many warm, muggy days and nights that the water temperature is hovering around a record high of 80 degrees.

  If the lake were an ocean, that would be warm enough to sustain a tropical storm or hurricane. 

No tropical storms here in Vermont. Scattered tropical showers over the next couple of days, maybe, but no tropical storms or hurricanes. 

Not so in Florida, which is under the gun from what I am for now calling Wannabe Debby.  It's a tropical depression that was just south of Cuba this morning.  It's organizing into what forecasters widely expect to become a full-fledged tropical storm by later today or tonight, and then they would name it Debby. 

It's expected to move generally northward, past Cuba and into the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That will allow this thing to strengthen pretty efficiently and become a tropical storm or even possibly a Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches northwestern Florida, probably on Monday. 

That'll open up swaths of Florida to coastal storm surges, wind and especially inland flooding. 

Wannabe Debby will probably slow down its forward motion as it passes through the southeastern United States early next week. That'll prolong the rain and intensify any flooding that goes on. 

It's also unclear what will become of Wannabe Debby once it reaches the Southeast. A trough of low pressure - the same one that promises to eventually clear out the ugly humidity in Vermont, could lift it northeastward, eventually passing just off the New England coast (probably, hopefully, too far east to give Vermont much trouble with rain)

Or, the trough of low pressure could entirely miss Wannabe Debby, leaving it behind to meander aimlessly somewhere near the Southeast coast. We'll just wait and see on that one.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Damage from a microburst in Colchester Vermont that
occurred this past Tuesday. There could be isolated
damaging microbursts in Vermont Sunday, but those
instances should be few and far between

So far at least, signs mostly suggest that Wannabe Debby won't be our problem here in Vermont. But the way this summer's going,  you never know, so stay tuned to local forecasts.

For now, we're stuck with the humid, icky weather through Monday morning at least. There was some spotty rain around this morning, but it didn't amount to much.

As usual in this kind of weather, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. They will be relatively few and far between, but of course any that do develop could stir up some locally torrential downpours. 

Sunday has a better chance of scattered storms, but again, not everybody will get 'em. Coverage of storms should be greater than it will be today.  There could be some isolated microbursts from some of these storms. Those can cause small swaths of pretty serious wind damage, like what happened in Colchester this past Tuesday.

The vast majority of us won't see anything like that, but a couple small spots might. 

Isolated instances of flash flooding are again possible, too, but it shouldn't be anything widespread. 

That long-awaited cold front should slowly limp through Vermont Monday with more showers.  It's still looking like we'll finally be into the much cooler, drier air by Tuesday and that would continue through the week. 

I have to wonder, though, whether Wannabe Debby will allow that front to progress very far south and east.  If that Wannabe Debby hangs up that front, rain could linger off and on, especially in southern Vermont, during much of next week. 

For now, though, the forecasts say we'll have at least a fair amount of sun, especially  north, to accompany those long awaited cooler days.