Hurricane Ravaged Western North Carolina Now Dealing With Wildfires

Wildfire in North Carolina this week in the 
same area slammed by Hurricane Helene
back in September. 

 Western North Carolina does not need any more problems. 

They're still trying to recover from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene back in late September.

People are still living in RVs and even tents in harsh winter cold. Piles of debris are still everywhere. Some roads aren't repaired yet. Perhaps thousands of people are still out of their homes, out of a job or both. 

But. of course, new issues have arisen.  Nothing is ever easy. The latest worry facing western North Carolina is wildfires.

Yes, wildfires. 

As AccuWeather reports, the larger of two fires, called the Crooked Creek Fire burning around the tiny hamlet of Old Fort, about 24 miles east of Asheville along Interstate 40.  This fire at last report covered 250 acres, forced evacuations, damaged one home and destroyed some outbuildings. 

The fires as of Sunday had been contained.  Evacuation orders were lifted. It did rain in the area Friday, and small amounts of rain are in the forecast later this week. 

 Parts of western North Carolina actually endured some renewed flooding with heavy rain at the end of December, but since then, little rain or snow has fallen. 

It's been dry and windy. All those toppled trees and shredded branches lying on the hurricane-damaged forest floor are drying out, creating a fire hazard. 

With fewer trees, and remaining trees leafless for the winter, sunshine can get through and dry things out when there's little rain or snow, like the western Carolina mountains have dealt with this month.  Dry, strong northwest winds have also frequently swept through this area during January. 

Wildfires are most common in the mountains of North Carolina in the late autumn and early spring but do break out from time to time during January if little rain or snow falls, like this month. 

The fallen trees and branches in the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee will continue to increase the fire risk during dry spells for a few years to come yet.  So yes, the wettest possible hurricane to hit the region also ironically is increasing the fire risk, 

VIDEO:

Drone video of the fires in North Carolina. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, clic on that. 

National, Global Climate Data Not Available Due To Hurricane Helene in North Carolina.

The National Centers for Environmental Information
building in Asheville, North Carolina.  The structure and
its physical contents were not damaged in the storm,
but the disaster disrupted the flow of critical national
and global climate data used worldwide.

 Every month, almost like clockwork, I give you updates on how the previous month's United States and global temperatures compared to previous years.  

I do that because most months these days in the age of climate change end up being the warmest on record, or if not, somewhere in the top ten list. It's important to let people know these measures of how climate change is progressing.

These monthly updates are now delayed because of a weather event that was likely made worse by the very climate change all this data was tracking. 

NOAA's  National Centers for Environmental Information, which compiles all this detailed global climate data, is headquartered in Asheville, North Carolina. It's the world's largest environmental data center. 

As we know, Asheville was brutalized by the flooding from Hurricane Helene. Swaths of the city were inundated or even swept away by floodwaters. Power, internet and water were out for weeks, and still hasn't been fully restored. 

Because of all this, the U.S. September climate report, which was supposed to be released on September 8, and the global climate report, which was supposed to go out October 10, have been delayed and we still have no idea when we'll see these documents. 

That's not good, because these monthly climate reports are not just interesting to geeks like me. Both the private and public sectors use them, including organizations and governments involved in agriculture, energy, retail, reinsurance, transportation and media. 

Thankfully, nobody who works at NCEI was hurt in the disaster. The building itself is intact and computer systems and existing data were not lost.  Old archives on paper and film are also safe. 

The servers at NCEI need a big, powerful cooling system, which relied on Asheville municipal water to get the job done. Hurricane Helene cut off the municipal water supply, and just this week, only some of the first steps toward getting that supply flowing again have started.

NCEI has been scrambling to set up alternative cooling systems. 

As of Thursday, things were beginning to look up.  NCEI takes in a lot of data daily, and they were not able to do that for weeks. Most of the usual data had started coming in as of this week, as broadband internet connections have finally been restored.

However, they have to catch up with data that never arrived during the crisis, and they might never be able to recover some of that data,

I don't know to what extent that might degrade the quality of their climate reports, if at all. 

People use NCEI information and data streams to make the point we need to adapt for climate change, to adjust the way we do things. It appears NCEI will need to do the same.

It's likely too early to plan this out in earnest, but I imagine they will need to find a redundancy, some entity somewhere else that can act as a backup if something like this ever happens in Asheville again. 

Interestingly, according to WUNC, NCEI was relocated from New Orleans to Asheville in the 1950s. Asheville was chosen because it was closer to Washington DC and because it was thought to be a historically safe climate area,

So much for that idea.  

Sure Enough, Lies About Federal Disaster Response Prompts Violence Threat, Interferes With Recovery

William Jacob Parsons, 44, was arrested for makimg
threats to FEMA workers trying to help
flood victims in North Carolina. 

 Sure enough, the toxic lies and conspiracy theories regarding the federal response to Hurricane Helene in North Carolina has interfered with those recovery efforts.  

Those relief efforts had to be temporarily shut down last weekend because of threats based on those lies, many of which were spread by our highly irresponsible (to put it mildly) Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Makes you wonder if he really cares about the people he's selling his schtick to, huh?  By the way, read on as the story takes on a small twist. 

I did a deep dive into the falsehoods in an October 13 post and mentioned that the horrible people spreading them would interfere with relief efforts. 

As the Associated Press reported on Tuesday: 

"Over the weekend, reports emerged that workers with the Federal Emergency Management Agency could be targeted by militia as the government responds to Hurricane Helene. A sheriff's office said Monday that one man was arrested during the investigation, but that the suspect acted alone."

Earlier reports that a band of militia members were roving around and planning an attack, but that thankfully proved false. Still, that just added to the climate of fear federal worker and flood victims are dealing with on top of all the other chaos in the flood zone. 

As the Associated Press reports, an exasperated North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said he's sure some people eligible for federal help are not applying due to lies spread by people who have an agenda other than helping flood victims.  

"'There's still a persistent and dangerous flow of misinformation about recovery efforts in western North Carolina that can lead to threats and intimidation, breeds confusion and demoralizes storm survivors and response workers alike,' Cooper said in a briefing. 'If you're participating in spreading this stuff, stop it. Whatever your aim is, the people you are hurting are those in western North Carolina who need help.'

'This is happening in the middle of an election where candidates are using people's misery to sow chaos for their own poltical objectives - and it's wrong,' he said."

Unfortunately, I'm sure the governor's words will fall on deaf ears as the gullible, angry believe anything you hear crowd is going to continue making everything worse for themselves and their neighbors. 

 The man who was arrested, William Jacob Parsons, 44, who was found armed with a handgun and a rifle. He was charged with something called going armed to the terror of the public. He was later released on $10,000 bond. 

 He actually agreed to talk with local television staton Fox 8 WGHP.

Apparently, Parsons bought the misinformation hook, line and sinker and spread it on Facebook, where he wrote, "We the people are sick and tired of the BS. We the people are seeking volunteers to join us and overtake the FEMA site in Lake Lure and send the products up the mountains this Saturday. We the people are done playing games. It's time to show who we are and what we believe. They want to screw our citizens. Now we return the favor."

Parsons told the television station he believed FEMA was failing people in need. "'I viewed it as if our people are sitting on American soil, and they're refusing to aid our people,' he said. 'So we were going to go up there and forcefully remove that fence.'"

Here's the small twist I referred to: Parsons said when he actually arrived, the reality was much different than advertised. He said he didn't really see anything untoward so he stayed and volunteered for the day.

If you take what Parsons said at face value, if he's telling the truth, it was another person who fell under the spell of Trump and figured out - too late - he's been lied to.

Because of his prior threats, law enforcement arrested Parsons at the scene. He insists he was only exercising his Second Amendment rights. He had one gun on him, and a rifle and a pistol in his vehicle. Parsons said they were all legally purchased.   

This will all get sorted out in court, I'm sure. 

Meanwhile, people are still making threats, thanks to the cynical actions of the liars out there lying. I'm guessing the goal is create conditions in which FEMA can't do their work, and then say, see, the current administration is a failure because FEMA is not doing their work.

In other words, some awful politicians are cruelly using flood victims in North Carolina as pawns.

You can't get any worse than that.  

 

 

 

Helene Smashed Ashore Last Night With 140 MPH Winds, Now We Wait On Casuality/Damage Assessments

Screen grab from television station KSDK of a destructive
storm surge from Hurricane Helene plowing into
buildings in Cedar Key, Florida last night. 

 As of early this morning, at least three people have died in Hurricane Helene, and that number is expected to rise as people begin to look around once dawn breaks on trashed Florida and Georgia.

The disaster is ongoing. As of the pre-dawn hours, Helene was well inland with top sustained winds down to 70 mph. 

But it was unleashing torrents of rain and the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in parts of Georgia and the western Carolinas. 

The National Hurricane Center said Helene made landfall at 11:10 EDT time Thursday as expected just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River in Florida's Big Bend region. That's about 45 miles east, southeast of Tallahassee.  It was a Category 4 with top winds of 140 mph. 

On the bright side, Tallahassee just barely missed the worst of the winds from Helene as the eyewall passed a smidge east of town.  There's a lot of trees down and the power is out in the city, but the wind wasn't strong enough to blow houses and buildings apart, as had been feared. Some homes have been damaged in Tallahassee by falling trees.

Here's one sign that climate change might be making at least some hurricanes stronger and more dangerous:  Since 2017, eight Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have hit the United States, with seven of them in the continental U.S. That's as many Cat 4s and 5s in the previous 57 years, reports hurricane expert Jeff Masters. 

Videos beginning to emerge from Florida show deep storm surge flooding in Steinhatchee and numerous other places. The Weather Channel showed video of the storm surge in Cedar Key nearly reaching some roofs. Another video shows severe building damage in Lee, Florida.

The storm surge flooding extended well south of where Helene came ashore, causing a lot of damage in places like Tampa and Fort Myers Beach. The surge in Tampa and Clearwater reached record highs. 

That Fort Myers Beach was so damaged and flooded is especially sad since that community was absolutely devastated by Hurricane Ian in 2022 and was just starting to fully come back from that disaster.  At least this time, the destruction at Fort Myers Beach isn't nearly as bad as it was with Ian. 

Yet another video shows a storm surge blasting into the interior of a St. Petersburg Beach home. 

Further north and inland, water rescues were ongoing in interior Georgia and western North Carolina. Asheville, North Carolina was awash in severe flooding from heavy rain even before the core of Helene arrived early today. 

Weather radar shows the eye of Hurricane Helene approaching
northwest Florida last evening. 

Video showed rescuers pulling dozens of people from a flooded apartment complex in Atlanta, Georgia. In a very close call, a woman, baby and dogs were stuck atop a flooded car near Atlanta amid rushing waters for about an hour, but rescuers finally got them to safety. 

Both Atlanta and Asheville were under a rare flash flood emergency early this morning, which is the most dire of this type of warning. As of 7 a.m. there were unconfirmed reports of deaths and injuries around Atlanta.  There have already been reports of at least 16 inches of rain in the mountains of North Carolina.

As of 6 a.m. about 3.2 million customers were without electricity in the Southeast and that number was growing. 

Helene will continue to grind away at the Southeast today with torrential rains, floods and gusty, sometimes damaging winds. High wind warnings have now been extended as far north as Indianapolis, Indiana, where gusts are expected to reach at least 60 mph today.

Helene will fade away and merge with an upper level low over the mid-South later today and tomorrow. That complex could continue to cause flooding rains for the next couple days. 

Since dawn is just breaking in the hurricane zone as I write this early Friday morning, details are still sketchy, of course. I'm sure there will be more updates as the day goes by. 

As has been stated before, the remains of Helene will not affect us here in Vermont. 

Meanwhile, hurricane experts are beginning to watch another disturbance off the coast of Mexico which could eventually become yet another tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week or so. 

Hurricane Helene Will Be Category 4 Monster At Landfall Later This Evening

Satellite photo of Hurricane Helene as of around 5 p.m.
today is a classic example of an extremely powerful
and strengthening hurricane. Note the small eye with
the nearly perfectly circular core. 

Hurricane Helene, which was steadily getting stronger last night and this morning, picked up the pace of its growing power this afternoon, and that will make the scary forecast scenarios come true.

As of 5 p.m. Hurricane Helene had top winds of 125 mph, up from 105 mph late this morning. It's now a Category 3 storm. 

Oops. That just got outdated in the middle writing this. As of 6:30, winds had increased to 130 mph, so now Helene is a category 4 storm. 

All signs point toward more fast strengthening in the few hours it has left over water. 

The National Hurricane Center noted that the eye of the storm has gotten smaller, the powerful thunderstorms around the eye have wrapped fully around that eye, and the storm is over a perfect environment to keep getting more monstrous. 

Satellite photos of Helene late this afternoon showed a perfectly symmetrical core around a well-defined eye. That's a real sign it's getting stronger. 

NHC expects Helene to be possibly a high end a category 4 storm at landfall with perhaps top winds of 145 to 156 mph.

All the awful things we've been talking about with Helene are about to happen. It's already starting with storm surges, tornadoes ahead of the storm and flooding well ahead of the storm up in the southern Appalachians.  

Gusty winds and rain bands are already sweeping Florida. By late afternoon, 130,000 customers were without power already. That will increase exponentially overnight in Florida, Georgia and beyond. 

The storm surges have begun well ahead of Helene, which is ominous. It reminds me of Hurricane Ike in Texas back in September, 2008.  Flooding from high tides began a good 12 hours before the storm hit. Then, when the true center of storm arrived, Bolivar Peninsula was pretty much swept clean by the storm surge. 

A total of 113 people died in Hurricane Ike, which wasn't even as strong as Helene is. 

The storm surge in northwestern Florida, especially in and around Apalachee Bay, is still expected to be up to 20 feet. There are a few people there in the path of the surge that we suspect haven't evacuated, with is a terrible move.  

The Taylor County sheriff's office is reportedly asking those who stay behind to write their name and date of birth on their arm with a permanent marker so their body can be identified after the storm. 

Helene has a forward motion of 23 mph. That's awfully fast for a Gulf of Mexico hurricane. That might make people in and near the area where Helene comes ashore get taken by surprise. The scenario means winds in the Helene target zone probably won't be all that bad into this evening. Then all of a sudden all hell will break loose.

As of 6 p.m., Helene was about 165 miles or so south of Tallahassee. At 6 p.m. winds in that city were from the northeast at 12 gusting to 22 mph. 

Very tame. Within a few hours from now, those breezes will become frightening gales gusting to 110 mph or more. 

Meanwhile, the storm is so large in area that western Florida was being battered by high winds even though the storm is centered 100 miles or more offshore. Sarasota, Florida was gusting to 67 mph as of 6 p.m. Most other southwestern and western Florida cities were seeing winds gusting over 50 mph

The strongest winds overnight will occur in a fairly narrow swath through Tallahassee, then Macon, Georgia and just to the east of Atlanta. 

Macon, far from the coast, can expect wind gusts to 90 mph late tonight and tomorrow. Areas east of Atlanta could easily see gusts approach 80 mph.

Expected high wind forecasts keep punching further and further inland. A high wind warning is now up for southeastern Kentucky, where expected gusts will be over 60 mph. Wind advisories for gusts to 50 mph now extend all the way to northwestern Indiana and eastern Illinois. 

The forecast hasn't changed for the cataclysmic flooding expected in the southern Appalachians. 

 This post probably comes off as scattered and disorganized. It is. This, more than most hurricanes I remember, has so many rapidly changing, moving, wide ranging parts and it's hard to keep straight. 

All I know is godspeed to the people in the path of Hurricane Helene. It's going to be a long, tragic night in Florida, Georgia and the southern Appalachians tonight. And that will continue through Friday. 

Getting Real In Florida: Helene Keeps Strengthening, Damage Already Reported

Satellite view of Hurricane Helene shortly
before noon today

 The all-important 11 a.m. update on Helene from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm continuing to strengthen as expected on its crash course toward landfall in northwest Florida this evening.  

Highest sustained winds have steadily increased from 90 mph at 4 a.m to 105 mph as of 11 a.m. We know Hurricane Helene will keep strengthening until landfall, but by how much?

The signs remain ominous. Satellite photos of the storm late this morning show it looking more symmetrical and circular than it did earlier today. 

Increasingly intense thunderstorms are getting better at wrapping fully around Helene's eye. The storm is about to move over the most favorable spot for strengthening on its path to the coast.

At this point, it doesn't matter a whole lot whether Hurricane Helene is a Category 3 (sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph) or a Category 4 (winds at 130 to 156 mph) at landfall. 

STORM SURGE

It's such a large storm that its biggest weapon through landfall is storm surge. This hurricane is covering a bigger area in the Gulf of Mexico than almost any storm there in history. That'll enable it to grab a lot of ocean water and push it onshore. 

That's why forecasters and are so worried that the storm surge in and near Florida's Big Bend area.  

Storm surges were already starting to affect the western coast of Florida by late morning. Worsening storm surges have been reported in Key West and Sarasota and near Tampa. Ocean water was also beginning to rise in the expected landfall zone as of late morning. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis this morning issued a last ditch plea for those who have not evacuated from the expected worst storm surge zone northwest Florida to do so now if not sooner, so to speak. There was still a short window of opportunity to flee ahead of what keeps being described as an "unsurvivable" storm surge.

DeSantis and others advised people not to flee north to Georgia, which will have its own problems with destructive winds and severe flooding.  Probably the best bet would be to head west toward Mississippi and Alabama, where the effects of the storm shouldn't be nearly as severe. 

WIND

So far tropical storm force winds have already started raking western Florida. Some outer rain bands have produced gusts to at least 50 mph. This is just a tiny foretaste of what's to come.

As we mentioned yesterday, Helene's size and fast forward pace will ensure high winds cover an enormous amount of real estate.

Near where Helene comes ashore, many homes and businesses will have their roofs blown off. Exterior walls could collapse under the weight of the wind, too. 

The winds dozens and hundreds of miles inland might not be catastrophic as what will happen along the coast. But the giant and highly populated parts of the Southeast will see widespread tree and power line damage. Plus a lot of houses and other buildings will suffer serious damage from trees falling on them. 

Winds in the rather forested Atlanta metro region and Asheville, North Carolina could gust to 65 mph.  Gusts will probably reach hurricane force in the higher elevations often southern Appalachians

Wind advisories are in effect for places as far inland from the Gulf of Mexico as southern Indiana, where gusts could reach 55 mph on Friday.

Power repair crews from across the nation are staging in and near the storm zone, ready to start getting the lights back on after the storm. But the process in many areas could take weeks. 

EXTREME FLOODING

Destructive inland flooding almost always happens after a hurricane makes landfall. But the flooding in this case looks like it will be much, much worse than usual. 

The downpours that started in the southern Appalachians yesterday due to a "predecessor rain event" has already caused one in 100 year type flooding in western North Carolina, the mountains of South Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Asheville, North Carolina has already had more than seven inches of rain since Wednesday morning, and that total could easily double by the time the storm is done. 

Some areas in the southern Appalachians have already received up to ten inches of rain, and another incredible 15 to 20 inches could fall in some spots. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has defined a high risk zone for severe flooding covering an area larger than I've ever seen before. It comprises a broad band from northwest Florida, through the length of central Georgia including Atlanta, and covering western North Carolina. 

These high risk designations are relatively rare to begin with. A high risk is declared on only about four percent of the days in a year. But high risk days comprise a third of all annual flood deaths and perhaps 80 percent of all flood related damage.

On top of all the flooding, numerous landslides are also likely in the southern Appalachians. 

RIPPLE EFFECTS

 The effects of Helene are already being felt far and wide. The number of canceled flights as of midmorning was around 1,000 and growing. 

Tampa International St. Pete-Clearwater International  and Tallahassee International airports are all shut down today. More might be added to the list. 

Funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency is depleted because the nation has had so many weather and climate disasters this year. This storm will be extraordinarily expensive, and cover a much wider area than most calamities. 

Recovery will be slow to say the least. To the point that it will probably have a slight but real drag on the U.S. economy.

 

Helene Continues Dangerous March Toward Florida Coast

Projected path of Hurricane Helene today and tonight.
That sort of yellow shading is where tropical storm
force winds are occurring. These were already starting
to brush southwest Florida before dawn. It's going
to be a long day in Florida. 

 Doing a quick update on dangerous Hurricane Helene early this morning ahead of an appointment, and I'll do a more comprehensive look at it when I'm back later this morning.  

The overall forecast for Hurricane Helene hasn't changed much overnight. As of 4 a.m. top winds with the storm were at 90 mph. 

The bottom line is Hurricane Helene is still expected to be a catastrophic major hurricane before and during its landfall in northwest Florida this evening, and continuing on into Friday with likely wild, extremely dangerous flooding and landslides in the southern Appalachians.

Storm surges are still expected to reach 20 feet above normal water levels in parts of coastal northwest Florida. 

I hope people have left this area. That kind of storm surge, combined with battering waves and extreme winds, is not survivable. 

Helene's forward speed is fast, so destructive winds will extend all the way inland to western North Carolina where a rare tropical storm warning is in effect.  

The weather is already kind of rough in much of Florida with rain bands from Helene. Tropical storm force winds were starting to sweep through coastal southwest Florida before dawn today. 

The game we're playing today is looking/hoping for ways to blunt Helene's potential power.  The more powerful the winds, the more destructive the storm, including its cataclysmic storm surge. 

Helene will move over a prime atmosphere to strengthen today. It'll be over record warm water and in a moist environment with little in the way of the type of upper level winds that would inhibit the storm's towering thunderstorms. 

That's why it's expected to strengthen quickly. 

Two things are sort of working to hopefully prevent Helene from reaching a most serious high end Category 4 or even Category 5.  It's moving forward so fast that it will run out of time to keep strengthening before it hits land.

Another interesting thing is its eyewall early this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. The eyewall is the most intense part of the storm. It's the ring of intense storms that surround the calm eye. 

Helene actually had two concentric eyewalls early today.  That could temporarily slow its strengthening. No guarantees, but we'll see.   

Even if Helene miraculously falls a little short of its forecast strength (don't count on it!), it's simply too late for anything to fall apart to prevent a major, life threatening disaster for swaths of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee. 

OTHER STORMS

Way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Isaac has formed. It's in the middle of nowhere, about a third of the way between North Carolina and Portugal.

It formed kind of far north for a tropical storm, and might even become a hurricane for a time. Eventually, as it heads east or northeast, Isaac will move over colder water and sputter out. It doesn't look like much of a threat to land. 

Another disturbance out there, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has a very good chance of soon becoming Tropical Storm Joyce.  It's too soon to say what, if any effect wannabe Joyce will have on any land areas. 

In the eastern Pacific, we have weird Tropical Storm John, soon to be Hurricane John.

It's weird because Hurricane John slammed into Mexico north of Acapulco a few days ago, then dissipated inland. But its remnants moved back over very warm Pacific Ocean water and quickly redeveloped. It's now expected to come ashore again in very roughly the same general area it did before.

The result will be catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides now through the end of the week in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

 

Wednesday Evening Helene Update: Even Worse Than I Told You Earlier Today

Hurricane Helene already looking like a monster in the
southern Gulf of Mexico early this evening. This
is increasingly looking like it will be a catastrophic
storm for Florida and many other parts of 
the Southeast now through Friday 

Earlier today, I told you that the news about Hurricane Helene is pretty much all bad.

As of this evening, the news is even worse. This will be a historic storm. 

Latest forecasts have Hurricane Helene getting even stronger at landfall than earlier predicted. Forecasts for the destructive storm surges are worse, too.

As of late afternoon, top winds in Hurricane Helene had increased a bit to 85 mph. The next 24 hours will probably bring a huge transition in the storm to an absolute monster.  

Top sustained winds at this time tomorrow could be up to 140 mph with higher gusts. 

That's right around the fastest observers have seen a hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Helene, like super hurricane Michael that hit the same general area in 2018, could well still be getting stronger right until it slams into the coast of northwest Florida Thursday evening. 

The storm surge forecast with Hurricane Helene is insane. Water could rise up to 20 feet above normal levels along the northwestern coast of Florida, which promises to cause massive, catastrophic destruction.

I hope everybody who's been told to evacuate the storm surge zone has done so, or will do so tonight. A storm surge like that is not survivable. 

The entire west and Gulf coasts of Florida will get hit by crushing storm surges. Even in southwest Florida, which is pretty far away from where Helene will come ashore. Record storm surges are expected across most of the Florida panhandle and down the coast all the way to Tampa. 

Usually, hurricane winds diminish quickly once the storm moves inland. 

But as noted in this morning's post, I talked about how the fast forward motion of Hurricane Helene would allow damaging winds to go much further inland than most hurricanes can muster. That prospect is even worse now. With top winds expected to be even stronger than earlier forecast at landfall, Helene will be able to maintain tropical force winds all the way to Asheville, North Carolina and a little beyond that. 

Tallahassee, Florida's state capitol, is a little inland and normally a little bit protected from the worst of hurricane winds, isn't so protected this time.

Depending on the exact track of Helene, that city could be devastated. In any event, areas hit by the core of Helene can expect extreme damage, with areas unlivable for weeks or months. Power outages will last weeks, too. 

The tropical storm watches for places as far north as northern Georgia and western parts of the Carolinas have been upgraded to warnings. Winds could gust to 70 mph at inland cities like Atlanta and Asheville, which is highly unusual for a tropical system. Full-fledged hurricane warnings extend as far inland as Macon, Georgia, which is 200 miles from the Gulf Coast. 

Inland flooding also continues to look catastrophic. It's been raining like hell today in much of the Southeast and southern Appalachians.  The intense rains from Helene will trigger massive flash floods and some mudslides through Georgia, and much of the Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. 

Here in Vermont, given the horrors we've seen from flooding this year, we are justified in calling ourselves lucky with Helene. This  hurricane will have pretty much no effect on the Green Mountain State. Maybe a few high, thin clouds this weekend. Maybe some very briefly moderate rain toward the middle of next week. That's it.

Back down in the hurricane zone, the only way we're going to avoid a huge loss of life is if everyone heeds evacuation warnings, and follows the advice of meteorologists and emergency managers.

If you know anyone who is in the path of Hurricane Helene and they're saying, "Meh, we've been through a lot of hurricanes, so we're not worried." 

Tell them to worry. A lot. This is no run-of-the-mill hurricane. 

It's Pretty Much All Bad News With Hurricane Helene

Satellite view of Hurricane Helene entering the southern
Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. It's a monster,
and getting stronger 

Hurricane Helene is about to become the nation's next multi-billion dollar disaster. 

As of late this morning, Helene, freshly upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane with top winds of 80 mph, was scooting northward past Cancun, Mexico and heading into a storm-welcoming Gulf of Mexico. 

Florida, of course, is most under the gun, since Helene is expected to make landfall sometime Thursday evening in the Big Bend area.

That's the part of northwest Florida that curves from the Gulf Coast panhandle southward to start forming the main Florida peninsula.

 It's not just that estimated landfall point that's in danger. This punishing storm is about to cause widespread destruction throughout much of the Southeast.

Everything about this storm so far is bad news, frankly.

WHY IT'S BAD

All the ingredients are there for Helene to explode in strength today and tonight as it makes its way northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures are at record high levels. The hotter the water, the better chances that a hurricane can grow strong, given the right atmospheric conditions.

Those atmospheric conditions are just right to nurture this rapidly growing hurricane.  Upper level winds are light, so there's nothing up there to disrupt the swirling thunderstorms that construct the storm. 

Sometimes, areas of dry air just outside a hurricanes' circulation gets pulled into the storm, weakening it. There's really no drier air surrounding Helene to threaten its growth rate. 

High above Helene is something called upper level divergence.  That means air is moving outward away from the storm and its path. That allows air in Helene to rise into all the more tall thunderstorms, helping it get stronger. 

This combination of factors are conspiring to make Helene a true, dreadful danger, with a bunch of hazards, some of which we explain next:

STORM SURGE

Storm surges are usually the most destructive part of a hurricane. The ocean, fortified with huge, battering waves, invades coastal communities with feet of water.  Pretty much everything in their path is destroyed, and if you're caught in a hurricane storm surge, chances are you won't survive. 

That's why there's so many evacuations going on in coastal western and northern Florida. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are in effect in large swaths of 13 Florida counties, including heavily populated Sarasota and Charlotte counties. 

The path, size and strength of Helene are all conspiring to make a near worst case scenario for storm surges in Florida. 

Hurricane Helene's projected path as of noon today.
Note that the storm's effects will be felt far
beyond the center of its path.

Helene is large in area, so it can stir up and push a lot of Gulf Water toward the coast. 

Where and just east of where Helene comes ashore, the storm surge could go as high as 15 feet. Which is really bad considering the land doesn't rise much in elevation near the shoreline. 

Helene will go west of Tampa, meaning the winds will come from the south.  Those winds, along with the coastline's orientation, will shove a LOT of water up into Tampa Bay. 

Storm surges there are expected to be in the five to eight foot range, which would flood thousands of buildings. 

Storm surge warnings are up for the entire west coast of Florida. That involves an incredible amount of property, so just the storm surge, never mind anything else, could cause $1 billion or more in damage. 

WIND

Top winds with Hurricane Helene at landfall could be 125 mph or greater - a major Category 3 storm. There's a fairly decent chance that Helene's rapid intensification could over-perform, creating a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 to 156 mph.  

There's even a quite low but not zero chance it could turn into a Category 5 - the worst kind - with winds of at least 157 mph. 

Helen's large size will also mean strong, damaging winds will hit an unusually large area for a hurricane.

As the Washington Post explains:

"....its size could be in the top 10 percent of hurricanes observed in the region, according to the National Hurricane Center. That means its surge and wind impacts will be greater more more wide-reaching that typical.

Tropical storm force winds could extend more than 200 miles from the center, and tropical storm warnings even extend into Miami, far from where Helene will come ashore. Tropical storm watches also stretch into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Helene is forecast to barrel inland at high speeds, allowing severe winds to penetrate much farther inland than typical for a hurricane across eastern Georgia. It could be Georgia's most serious weather event in quite awhile, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph possible over southeastern portions of the state."

Damaging winds will probably punch even further north. Just before noon, tropical storm watches were extended northward to  encompassing all of Georgia, including metro Atlanta,  and the high elevations of the western Carolinas. 

All this areas could see winds of 58 to as much as 80 mph with locally higher gusts. Soggy ground combined with the high winds will make lots of trees in these heavily forested areas topple. Some of them will surely crush parts or all of houses, buildings, power lines and other structures.  

FLOODING

Intense inland flooding looks inevitable through huge swaths of Florida, Georgia and the southern Appalachians. 

Helene as of noon wasn't even anywhere close to Georgia and the southern Appalachians and already serious flooding is breaking out there. 

They're experiencing a classic and dangerous predecessor rain event or PRE.  These happen when deep moisture is drawn far northward from the developing hurricane and that moisture smacks into a stalled weather front or mountains or a combination. These usually happen more or less 500 or more miles north often actual hurricane.  

The southern Appalachians have already had two to five inches of rain in the past couple of day, and expect downpours that will deposit another three to six inches of rain for the rest of the day. Flash flooding was already ongoing near the Tennessee/North Carolina border this morning, and it will get worse this afternoon.

Then, by Thursday and Friday, the actual storm center of Helene will pass through the region. By later Friday, six inches to as much as a foot of rain, possibly with locally higher amounts will drown the southern Appalachians, This will cause catastrophic flash floods in the steep terrain, along with landslides.

You surely remember how this type of downpour, with water rushing off of Vermont's steep mountains, caused the catastrophic floods in the summers of 2023 and 2024.  The southern Appalachians will experience something like that, except maybe even worse. 

TORNADOES

Hurricanes that come ashore often spin off a number of tornadoes, especially near and east of the storm track.  Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas are under a tornado threat Thursday and Friday. 

BOTTOM LINE

Unless something unexpected happens, this is frankly a mess.  The forecasts have been consistent, and there's not a lot of spread in the various computer models.  Sure, there will be surprises, but nobody should be shocked that Helene will create yet another huge path of destruction. 

Climate change, by the way, isn't "causing" Helene. But the extreme heat content of the Gulf of Mexico waters, likely brought on by climate change, are contributing to making this hurricane worse than it would otherwise be.

Also, a warmer world can carry more atmospheric moisture than a cooler world.  With or without climate change, Helene would cause a lot of flooding in the Southeast.  But perhaps because of climate change, the flooding could be more intense than if the same weather situation hit decades ago.

I'm really hoping the millions of people caught in the crosshairs of this storm heed all evacuation warnings, and do what emergency managers tell them to do. 

This one is a pretty scary one, folks.