Grim Day In Caribbean As Extreme Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica Landfall

Close up satellite view of Hurricane Melissa's eye
nearing southwestern Jamaica at dawn this morning. 

 UPDATE 9 a.m.

It's even worse now.

A recent update just in has maximum winds up to 180 mph, and central pressure down to 896 millibars.

This now tentatively makes this the fifth or sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic on record.

Landfall will be within just a few hours 

I'm dreading the news later today from Jamaica.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hurricane Melissa sank to ridiculous extremes overnight, with winds staying at 175 mph on its approach to Jamaica.  

That the storm has maintained that incredible intensity since at least early yesterday afternoon is really something to dreadfully behold.

 The central pressure this morning in the eye of Hurricane Melissa was 901 millibars, making it the seventh strongest hurricane on record anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. 

The updates are now coming so fast and furiously now that it's hard to keep up. But we'll give you a good idea and summary of what's going on. 

THIS MORNING'S SITUATION

Winds of tropical storm strength were lashing Jamaica at dawn. Those will quickly go to hurricane force by mid to late morning ahead of an expected landfall early this afternoon.

It's going to be a brutal day in Jamaica to say the least. 

Winds of 175 mph at landfall would flatten pretty much everything. There's a chance Melissa could "weaken" slightly before landfall, but as a practical matter, it won't make a difference.  Winds of, say 165 mph would have pretty much the same effect as winds 10 mph higher.  

To give you an idea how bad it is in there, hurricane hunter planes reportedly detected a gust to 241 mph just 700 feet off the surface offshore of Jamaica last night. 

Once Melissa makes landfall, the effects of hills and mountains can make the hurricane winds locally gust to 1.5 times the overall wind speed. Meaning some pockets in the Jamaican mountains could see gusts to 250 mph. We'll never know for sure, as there are few wind gauges to measure and probably none of those gauges would survive such winds.  

A wider visible satellite image of extreme 
Hurricane Melissa shortly after dawn today. 

The only good news is the area of hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles or so from the eye. That means eastern Jamaica will escape the worst of the winds, but not the worst of the flooding. The water and landslides will be catastrophic island-wide.

Melissa is still moving pretty slowly, with a forward speed of just 5 mph. Most hurricanes, on average move at 10 to 15 mph. 

The slow movement means the extreme rains from Melissa will linger over Jamaica, and neighboring Haiti and Dominican Republic, longer than usual for a hurricane. That would make the terrible flooding with the hurricane even worse.  

I've been watching live cams from Jamaica, at least until the power goes out there. One of them shows the Flat Bridge over the Rio Cobre River in Spanish Town, Jamaica. As of around dawn, the river was a torrent, very high, muddy, full of debris. This was before the intense part of Hurricane Melissa arrived.

Imagine how bad the flooding will be after another one to three feet of rain crashes down on Jamaica today. 

The advice to Jamaicans from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is still dire:

"Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communications outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa's center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of of life."

On social media, hotel guests reported they are on lockdown. They've been advised to shove mattresses against the windows and huddle behind closed doors in the bathroom during the worst of the storm. 

The social media posts from Jamaica are already frightening. Virtuallywithdee on Threads, has been live posting her experiences with the storm. At 6:15 a.m. she posted:

"The updates are coming faster because I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing. The rain is pouring like someone's throwing buckets of water nonstop - the downpour is wild. Electricity is flickering in and out, and the mobile service is getting spotty. The wind is giving me chills... and she still hasn't even arrived yet."

HORRIBLE DAY AHEAD

Media reports and social media will probably go dark later this morning and stay that way for quite a while after as electricity and cell service collapses in the hardest hit areas. 

I'm worried sick about the fate of Jamaicans. CNN tells us the International Federation of the Red Cross says it expects 1.5 million people - more than half of Jamaica's population - to be directly affected by Hurricane Melissa. 

The worst effects will be across western Jamaica.  The Capitol, Kingston is in the eastern third of the island and expects peak wind gusts of 70 to 85 mph with up to 16 inches of rain. As of 7 a.m. wind was already gusting to 59 mph in Kingston. 

Montego Bay, in northwest Jamaica, should expect peak winds gusts of 100 to 140 mph and up to 20 inches of rain. Scary, indeed.

CUBA 

The worst conditions in eastern Cuba should hit later today and through tonight. 

In Santiago de Cuba, peak wind gusts are forecast to be in the 100 to 120 mph range, with about a foot of rain. Some nearby hillsides could see two feet of rain. 

Heavy rain is already falling in Cuba and that should get worse through the day. 

HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Hurricane Melissa is passing to the west of these two nations, but it's still having a catastrophic effect there, especially in Haiti. Extreme flash floods and landslides are likely there this week. Tropical storm force winds will also hit Haiti. 

Several deaths have already been reported in Haiti due to flooding and landslides. 

Hurricane Melissa is still forecast to smash through the southeastern Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday before heading into the open Atlantic. It could lash Bermuda with strong winds early Friday before it races into the cold northern Atlantic Ocean where it will finally die over the weekend.  

It's Pretty Much All Bad News With Hurricane Helene

Satellite view of Hurricane Helene entering the southern
Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. It's a monster,
and getting stronger 

Hurricane Helene is about to become the nation's next multi-billion dollar disaster. 

As of late this morning, Helene, freshly upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane with top winds of 80 mph, was scooting northward past Cancun, Mexico and heading into a storm-welcoming Gulf of Mexico. 

Florida, of course, is most under the gun, since Helene is expected to make landfall sometime Thursday evening in the Big Bend area.

That's the part of northwest Florida that curves from the Gulf Coast panhandle southward to start forming the main Florida peninsula.

 It's not just that estimated landfall point that's in danger. This punishing storm is about to cause widespread destruction throughout much of the Southeast.

Everything about this storm so far is bad news, frankly.

WHY IT'S BAD

All the ingredients are there for Helene to explode in strength today and tonight as it makes its way northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures are at record high levels. The hotter the water, the better chances that a hurricane can grow strong, given the right atmospheric conditions.

Those atmospheric conditions are just right to nurture this rapidly growing hurricane.  Upper level winds are light, so there's nothing up there to disrupt the swirling thunderstorms that construct the storm. 

Sometimes, areas of dry air just outside a hurricanes' circulation gets pulled into the storm, weakening it. There's really no drier air surrounding Helene to threaten its growth rate. 

High above Helene is something called upper level divergence.  That means air is moving outward away from the storm and its path. That allows air in Helene to rise into all the more tall thunderstorms, helping it get stronger. 

This combination of factors are conspiring to make Helene a true, dreadful danger, with a bunch of hazards, some of which we explain next:

STORM SURGE

Storm surges are usually the most destructive part of a hurricane. The ocean, fortified with huge, battering waves, invades coastal communities with feet of water.  Pretty much everything in their path is destroyed, and if you're caught in a hurricane storm surge, chances are you won't survive. 

That's why there's so many evacuations going on in coastal western and northern Florida. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are in effect in large swaths of 13 Florida counties, including heavily populated Sarasota and Charlotte counties. 

The path, size and strength of Helene are all conspiring to make a near worst case scenario for storm surges in Florida. 

Hurricane Helene's projected path as of noon today.
Note that the storm's effects will be felt far
beyond the center of its path.

Helene is large in area, so it can stir up and push a lot of Gulf Water toward the coast. 

Where and just east of where Helene comes ashore, the storm surge could go as high as 15 feet. Which is really bad considering the land doesn't rise much in elevation near the shoreline. 

Helene will go west of Tampa, meaning the winds will come from the south.  Those winds, along with the coastline's orientation, will shove a LOT of water up into Tampa Bay. 

Storm surges there are expected to be in the five to eight foot range, which would flood thousands of buildings. 

Storm surge warnings are up for the entire west coast of Florida. That involves an incredible amount of property, so just the storm surge, never mind anything else, could cause $1 billion or more in damage. 

WIND

Top winds with Hurricane Helene at landfall could be 125 mph or greater - a major Category 3 storm. There's a fairly decent chance that Helene's rapid intensification could over-perform, creating a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 to 156 mph.  

There's even a quite low but not zero chance it could turn into a Category 5 - the worst kind - with winds of at least 157 mph. 

Helen's large size will also mean strong, damaging winds will hit an unusually large area for a hurricane.

As the Washington Post explains:

"....its size could be in the top 10 percent of hurricanes observed in the region, according to the National Hurricane Center. That means its surge and wind impacts will be greater more more wide-reaching that typical.

Tropical storm force winds could extend more than 200 miles from the center, and tropical storm warnings even extend into Miami, far from where Helene will come ashore. Tropical storm watches also stretch into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Helene is forecast to barrel inland at high speeds, allowing severe winds to penetrate much farther inland than typical for a hurricane across eastern Georgia. It could be Georgia's most serious weather event in quite awhile, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph possible over southeastern portions of the state."

Damaging winds will probably punch even further north. Just before noon, tropical storm watches were extended northward to  encompassing all of Georgia, including metro Atlanta,  and the high elevations of the western Carolinas. 

All this areas could see winds of 58 to as much as 80 mph with locally higher gusts. Soggy ground combined with the high winds will make lots of trees in these heavily forested areas topple. Some of them will surely crush parts or all of houses, buildings, power lines and other structures.  

FLOODING

Intense inland flooding looks inevitable through huge swaths of Florida, Georgia and the southern Appalachians. 

Helene as of noon wasn't even anywhere close to Georgia and the southern Appalachians and already serious flooding is breaking out there. 

They're experiencing a classic and dangerous predecessor rain event or PRE.  These happen when deep moisture is drawn far northward from the developing hurricane and that moisture smacks into a stalled weather front or mountains or a combination. These usually happen more or less 500 or more miles north often actual hurricane.  

The southern Appalachians have already had two to five inches of rain in the past couple of day, and expect downpours that will deposit another three to six inches of rain for the rest of the day. Flash flooding was already ongoing near the Tennessee/North Carolina border this morning, and it will get worse this afternoon.

Then, by Thursday and Friday, the actual storm center of Helene will pass through the region. By later Friday, six inches to as much as a foot of rain, possibly with locally higher amounts will drown the southern Appalachians, This will cause catastrophic flash floods in the steep terrain, along with landslides.

You surely remember how this type of downpour, with water rushing off of Vermont's steep mountains, caused the catastrophic floods in the summers of 2023 and 2024.  The southern Appalachians will experience something like that, except maybe even worse. 

TORNADOES

Hurricanes that come ashore often spin off a number of tornadoes, especially near and east of the storm track.  Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas are under a tornado threat Thursday and Friday. 

BOTTOM LINE

Unless something unexpected happens, this is frankly a mess.  The forecasts have been consistent, and there's not a lot of spread in the various computer models.  Sure, there will be surprises, but nobody should be shocked that Helene will create yet another huge path of destruction. 

Climate change, by the way, isn't "causing" Helene. But the extreme heat content of the Gulf of Mexico waters, likely brought on by climate change, are contributing to making this hurricane worse than it would otherwise be.

Also, a warmer world can carry more atmospheric moisture than a cooler world.  With or without climate change, Helene would cause a lot of flooding in the Southeast.  But perhaps because of climate change, the flooding could be more intense than if the same weather situation hit decades ago.

I'm really hoping the millions of people caught in the crosshairs of this storm heed all evacuation warnings, and do what emergency managers tell them to do. 

This one is a pretty scary one, folks.