Wednesday Evening Helene Update: Even Worse Than I Told You Earlier Today

Hurricane Helene already looking like a monster in the
southern Gulf of Mexico early this evening. This
is increasingly looking like it will be a catastrophic
storm for Florida and many other parts of 
the Southeast now through Friday 

Earlier today, I told you that the news about Hurricane Helene is pretty much all bad.

As of this evening, the news is even worse. This will be a historic storm. 

Latest forecasts have Hurricane Helene getting even stronger at landfall than earlier predicted. Forecasts for the destructive storm surges are worse, too.

As of late afternoon, top winds in Hurricane Helene had increased a bit to 85 mph. The next 24 hours will probably bring a huge transition in the storm to an absolute monster.  

Top sustained winds at this time tomorrow could be up to 140 mph with higher gusts. 

That's right around the fastest observers have seen a hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Helene, like super hurricane Michael that hit the same general area in 2018, could well still be getting stronger right until it slams into the coast of northwest Florida Thursday evening. 

The storm surge forecast with Hurricane Helene is insane. Water could rise up to 20 feet above normal levels along the northwestern coast of Florida, which promises to cause massive, catastrophic destruction.

I hope everybody who's been told to evacuate the storm surge zone has done so, or will do so tonight. A storm surge like that is not survivable. 

The entire west and Gulf coasts of Florida will get hit by crushing storm surges. Even in southwest Florida, which is pretty far away from where Helene will come ashore. Record storm surges are expected across most of the Florida panhandle and down the coast all the way to Tampa. 

Usually, hurricane winds diminish quickly once the storm moves inland. 

But as noted in this morning's post, I talked about how the fast forward motion of Hurricane Helene would allow damaging winds to go much further inland than most hurricanes can muster. That prospect is even worse now. With top winds expected to be even stronger than earlier forecast at landfall, Helene will be able to maintain tropical force winds all the way to Asheville, North Carolina and a little beyond that. 

Tallahassee, Florida's state capitol, is a little inland and normally a little bit protected from the worst of hurricane winds, isn't so protected this time.

Depending on the exact track of Helene, that city could be devastated. In any event, areas hit by the core of Helene can expect extreme damage, with areas unlivable for weeks or months. Power outages will last weeks, too. 

The tropical storm watches for places as far north as northern Georgia and western parts of the Carolinas have been upgraded to warnings. Winds could gust to 70 mph at inland cities like Atlanta and Asheville, which is highly unusual for a tropical system. Full-fledged hurricane warnings extend as far inland as Macon, Georgia, which is 200 miles from the Gulf Coast. 

Inland flooding also continues to look catastrophic. It's been raining like hell today in much of the Southeast and southern Appalachians.  The intense rains from Helene will trigger massive flash floods and some mudslides through Georgia, and much of the Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. 

Here in Vermont, given the horrors we've seen from flooding this year, we are justified in calling ourselves lucky with Helene. This  hurricane will have pretty much no effect on the Green Mountain State. Maybe a few high, thin clouds this weekend. Maybe some very briefly moderate rain toward the middle of next week. That's it.

Back down in the hurricane zone, the only way we're going to avoid a huge loss of life is if everyone heeds evacuation warnings, and follows the advice of meteorologists and emergency managers.

If you know anyone who is in the path of Hurricane Helene and they're saying, "Meh, we've been through a lot of hurricanes, so we're not worried." 

Tell them to worry. A lot. This is no run-of-the-mill hurricane. 

California Floods/Wind Much Worse Than The Usual Winter Storms Out There

Satellite photo this morning shows the massive 
storm plowing into California. Severe flooding 
and wind damage is likely out of this one, 

 As of this morning, California was just starting to endure perhaps the worst storm in years.

Practically the entire state is under the gun for either life-threatening flooding and mudslides, very damaging winds, and in the mountains, feet of snow. 

Winter storms and atmospheric rivers regularly smack into California, causing flooding, mudslides, wind damage and mountain blizzards. 

Most of the state is receiving heavy rain from this, but the worst of the downpours will probably hit southern California. 

"All systems are go for one of the most dramatic weather days in recent memory," the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles wrote in their Sunday morning forecast discussion. 

 NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has put large parts of southern California, including all of the Los Angeles basin and pretty much all the nearby mountains are under a high risk of flash floods.

That's a rare designation that only happens a handful of times a year anywhere in the nation. A high risk of flash floods designation is typically issued on only about 4 percent of the days out of the year. But high risk days yield 39 percent of all annual flood deaths and 83 percent of all annual flood damage in the U.S.

An example: Vermont was under a high risk flood designation this past July 10 and look what happened.

Lower elevations around Los Angeles were expecting three to six inches of rain with six to 12 inches in the foothills and mountains. 

This is way more than enough to trigger mud and rock slides and debris flows, especially near areas that had wildfires. Santa Barbara County is expected to get some of the heaviest rain, and several neighborhoods there were evacuated ahead of the storm because of the dangerous risk of debris flows.

The evacuations include parts of the ritzy small town of Montecito, where a 2018 mudslide killed 23 people and destroyed at least 100 homes. 

Although flooding is possible in central and northern California, the bigger risk there is high winds. Officials were anticipating many power outages, downed trees and some structural damage as winds gust over 60 mph. Stronger winds were forecast near the coast.

The first-ever Hurricane Force Wind Warning has been issued for the California coastal waters near Big Sur. 

The National Weather Service office in Sacramento had this forecast and advice for people in the Sierra Nevada range:

"For the Sierra, snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet are expected, with up to 6 feet at the higher mountain peaks. Southerly winds gusting as high as 65 mph will be possible......Heavy mountain snow and strong, gusty winds are expected to bring difficult to impossible mountain travel with snow-covered roads, chain controls, road closures and whiteout conditions at times."

Considering the strength of the storm and the large population its hitting, I  have a feeling this storm will end up being yet another storm that causes at least $1 billion in damage. 

 By the way, longer range forecasts so far have this storm falling apart well before reaching Vermont. It might eventually produce clouds and perhaps a little light rain or snow next weekend. 

Of course, I'll  have more on this California storm as it develops.