Vermont Threads The Needle: Elsa Heavy Rain, Severe Weather Detour Around State

Screen shot from a viral video showing rather wet 
conditions in New York's subway system after torrential 
rains on Thursday. Via the Gothamist/Paul Leewr

Vermont expected a real soaker of a rain from a storm boosted by moisture from Tropical Storm Elsa.

Instead, meh. 

It did rain a little around here, but not nearly as much as had been long forecasted. Which is actually a disappointment.  I and many others had been excited about a drought-busting, or at least drought denting drenching.

As of early this morning, Burlington received less than half an inch so far. Here in St. Albans, only a measly quarter inch of rain deigned to grace my unofficial rain gauge.  

Montpelier was closing in on one inch of rain, thanks to them getting a bullseye early this morning from one of the patchy downpours that were still around as dawn broke. 

More showers this morning and early afternoon will add a bit to the totals, but rainfall was certainly underwhelming here in the Green Mountain State.  What can I say? The forecasts were wrong.

Elsewhere in the East and Northeast, there was a lot of destructive weather, either from Tropical Storm Elsa or a storm coming in from the Great Lakes. 

In western and northwestern New York, at least a couple tornadoes touched down yesterday, causing some damage, including at least one home in Westernville, New York that lost its roof. A 92 mph gust was reported in another western New York town.

Flooding was a big issue in pockets of the Northeast, including New York City, where more than 1.5 inches of rain fell within an hour, badly inundating subways, highways and streets.  Areas of flooding were reported from Florida to Connecticut Wednesday and Thursday. 

Meanwhile, this morning, Tropical Storm Elsa was holding her own as she swept northeastward from near the coast of New Jersey toward southern New England. 

Gusts of 79 mph were reported at Sea Isle City,  and 71 mph at Beach Haven, on the Jersey Shore. The National Hurricane Center said those reports were because the anemometers were near tornadic circulations, which of course isn't great. 

Plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck did get a little wetting
last night, but not the super soaking that had been forecast.
Much less rain fell than predicted

As Tropical Storm Elsa zips through already soaked Southern New England, it will lay down a quick stripe of two to five inches of rain, so flash flooding is inevitable today from Connecticut, up through eastern Massachusetts and all along the coast of Maine. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Here in Vermont, showers should gradually taper off as the day wears on. 

It should be a nice weekend, with comfortable temperatures both Saturday and Sunday and humidity low enough to feel good. Pack the sunscreen. You'll need it. 

Don't get used to such Chamber of Commerce weather. 

The Bermuda High out in the Atlantic is just about to reassert itself, bulging northward and westward and affecting us. But not in a good way.

It won't get super hot, but the tropical southerly flow will make it awfully humid in Vermont for most of next week. Really icky, if you ask me. Nights will be really stuffy, too.

With the tropical air in place, there's a daily risk of very localized, torrential downpours Unfortunately, there won't be widespread wetting, but each day Tuesday through at least Thursday will feature a chance of showers and storms, mostly in the afternoons and evenings. 

While there is a low chance of pinpoint spots that could get enough rain from these to trigger flash floods, it's looking like most of us won't get all that much rain. We'll just have to wait and see how that plays out.  

Quick Elsa Update: I-95 Corridor Getting The Worst, Again

Hard to see where's where on this satellite view early
this evening, but this shows Tropical Storm Elsa
over Virginia, making a beeline toward southern 
New England

 Tropical Storm Elsa continued to travel roughly northbound along Interstate 95 today, helping to unleash severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England for the third day in a row. 

Elsa is working in tandem with a non-tropical storm system in the eastern Great Lakes to produce the storms and the heavy rain, and the flash flooding. 

I just figured I ought to give a quick Thursday evening update.

The storm threatens to create the risk of significant flash flooding in a stripe along its path through southern New England and into eastern Maine late tonight and tomorrow.

Here in Vermont, northern areas of the state need the rain much more than the south. But of course, after several days of consistent forecasts for a heavy, soaking rain, the north is beginning to look like it might miss out, again. 

Sure it will rain. Current forecasts are still clinging to an inch or so of rain in northern Vermont, but we'll see if that pans out. Might or might not. 

The southeastern two thirds of Vermont is still under a flash flood watch.  That's because there could be streaks of heavier rain where repeated lines of downpours go over the same areas, creating zones of flood risk.

It'll be small stream and creek flooding. Bigger rivers are still expected to be no problem. 

There's a decent chance we will hear some thunder overnight, but severe storms are not expected. Close miss though: It looks like there was just a brief tornado in New York's St. Lawrence Valley a little southeast of Watertown around 6:30 p.m. this evening. 

The worst of the rain will be over by Friday afternoon in Vermont, but there might be a few showers around into the evening. 

It's still looking like a pretty nice weekend before humid weather returns for next week.

Elsa And You: Principal Storm Threat Is Flooding

Tropical Storm Elsa over the Carolinas this morning.
The storm is raising flood alerts from North Carolina to
Maine, including parts of Vermont 

Weak Tropical Storm Elsa, over South Carolina as of early this morning, is set to make its soggy trip up the Eastern Seaboard today and tomorrow.

Tropical storm warnings extend all the way up the coast to Massachusetts, which is relatively rare, especially this early in the season. 

Though high winds might be a problem along the coast in some spots, Elsa will mostly be remembered for its heavy rains and flooding.  

Flash flood watches extend from North Carolina to Maine, and those watches include southern and central Vermont. 

Most of the areas under the flash flood watches have been repeatedly raked by torrential thunderstorms over the past week or two, so soil moisture there is higher.  Which means Elsa's downpours would have an easier time producing flash floods. 

The National Hurricane Center has done a fantastic job forecasting the position and strength of Elsa ever since it really cranked up near Barbados last week. So I have no reason to doubt its expected track up along the coastline, crossing southeastern Massachusetts Friday morning or early afternoon.

Here in Vermont, most of the heavy rain will be an indirect result of Elsa, though southeastern Vermont in particular will get an extra dose of rain from the actual storm tomorrow morning. 

The rains today and tonight around here will mostly be brought along by tropical moisture Elsa is helping to bring north, plus a weather pattern that takes full advantage of that moisture. 

Weather radar had lots of scattered showers around early this morning as this tropical moisture began to take hold. The rain will grow steadier and heavier as the day wears on. By late afternoon, overnight and Friday morning, the rain will really come down hard at times.

As I've said before, the heavy rain will do more good than harm, especially in northern Vermont, which has had less beneficial rains than southern Vermont in the past couple of weeks. That previous southern Vermont rain points to some danger from this new, wet episode.

Tropical systems moving north into New England almost always create a flood threat, and Elsa is no exception.

Southern Vermont has been on the edge of all that intense thunderstorm activity I mentioned that's been going on along much of the East Coast.  From Route 2 south, rainfall has been above normal in Vermont over the past week.  So the ground is wetter there. Plus, the heaviest rain from this episode will cross southern and eastern Vermont.  

Which is why that part of the state is under a flash flood watch. The area under this watch is roughly south and east of a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line. 

Hollyhocks and other flowers brighten things up in my St.
Albans, Vermont gardens on a dark, overcast morning today.
Those clouds will ultimately result in heavy rains by tonight.

Tropical Storm Elsa will certainly NOT be a repeat of Tropical Storm Irene - we're not expecting a full blown flood disaster. But those of us under the flash flood watch really need to take it seriously. 

Torrential periods of rain falling on the steep hills of the Green Mountain State can really send blasts of water roaring down small streams, wrecking culverts and undermining back roads. 

 The bulk of the heavy rain and flash flooding will come after dark, when it's harder to see washouts and high water when you're out there driving. 

If you're vacationing here in Vermont and have set up your camp site or RV right next to a small stream or river, I'd move uphill right now to be on the safe side. 

Because most of Vermont has either been in drought or at least abnormally dry pretty much all of this year so far, the larger rivers likely won't flood. They're running awfully low to start with, so it would take a lot of water to fill them up. 

It's the small streams, creeks, low lying areas and typical flood prone areas we have to watch out for. Even places outside the flash flood watch should pay attention for the risk of some small streams getting  out of hand or some street flooding in more urban areas

As always, don't drive onto a road covered by water. You don't know how deep it is, and you don't know whether the road has been undermined. Will it collapse when you drive your car into it? Trust me, don't take the chance. 

Overall, we'll get anywhere from about 1.25 to three inches of rain by Friday afternoon.  There will be locally heavier amounts in central and southern Vermont, which is another good reason why there's a flash flood watch posted there.

Don't worry at all about high winds from Elsa in Vermont. Ain't going to happen.  

In southeastern New England, though, strong, damaging winds could be a problem Friday morning. I expect plenty of tree and power line damage down that way tomorrow. There might even be a couple brief, isolated tornadoes in that neck of the woods. 

Needless to say, tomorrow is NOT the best day for your Boston, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard or Block Island getaway.  

I said there's lots of tropical moisture around that is leading to the heavy rain, and that's true. The air won't exactly feel tropical, though.  Temperatures won't make it to 70 today and will barely crack the low 70s tomorrow. 

Cool high pressure in Quebec is feeding chilly air down toward us. That tropical moisture is being forced to glide up and over the cooler air. The fact that this air has to rise is one reason why it's going to rain so hard.

 The weekend looks nice, with temperatures just a tad cooler than normal (mid to upper 70s). Seems like we always have gorgeous weather right after a tropical system passes nearby.

When we get into next week, we'll  muddle into some typical summer weather, with near normal highs around 80, with the air having a vaguely humid feel to it.  There will be a risk of showers and storms each day, but most of the time will be dry.  

 

Tropical Storm Elsa Keeps Battering Florida; Big Rains Due Here In Vermont

Tropical Storm Elsa getting ready this morning to make
landfall near Cedar Key, Florida. 

Tropical Storm Elsa this morning continues to rake much of Florida with gusty winds, torrential rains and some coastal flooding.  

The good-ish news is though Elsa, as expected, strengthened overnight into a hurricane when it was southwest of Tampa Bay, that didn't last long. Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air that Elsa ingested overnight kept things in check. 

Top winds were at 65 mph as Elsa lumbered toward an expected landfall later this morning or around noon time in northwestern Florida.

So far, damage has been on the light side all along the west coast of Florida, which Elsa has been hitting since yesterday.  There are scattered reports of flooding, downed tree limbs, wires, that sort of thing. I'm sure we'll hear more on that as the day goes on.

Tornadoes could easily spin off this system on the Florida peninsula, and in fact, there have already been a couple tornado warnings this morning

Elsa will move inland across the Southeast later today and tonight. But since the storm is lopsided, with almost all of its bad weather to the east of its center, tropical storm conditions will continue in coastal areas from Georgia through North Carolina. 

Usually, tropical systems weaken over land and Elsa will, but since a good chunk of its activity will be over coastal waters, gusty winds and heavy rain will continue. 

ELSA AND NEW ENGLAND

Tropical Storm Elsa is one ingredient making for some interesting weather up here in New England.

As is common with East Coast tropical systems, a cold front is stalling out well north of the storm.

Early this morning, the front was through central Vermont and New Hampshire, meaning that awful humidity from yesterday has been routed.  

The anvil cloud from an approaching thunderstorm last
evening in St. Albans, Vermont heralded the eventual 
arrival of another badly needed downpour. While only
 few areas received beneficial rain Tuesday, widespread,
heavier rain is in the forecast for Vermont tomorrow. 

Southern New England will have a rinse and repeat day. Yesterday, it was horribly hot and humid there, with severe thunderstorms. Today, the same, although the severe storms won't be a widespread as yesterday.

Up here in Vermont, some areas got needed rain yesterday, but some kind of missed out. 

 Here in St. Albans, I lucked out with a third of an inch of rain early in the morning, then 0.4 inches more from an evening downpour.

Today, showers will scoot across Vermont west to east north of the front.  It won't rain hard, with most of us getting a tenth of an inch or less.

The main show is tomorrow and tomorrow night.  We're still in line to get that Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE.

As described yesterday, a PRE is an area of heavy rain that often sets up  pretty far to the north and west of a tropical storm or hurricane.  

Although PRE's can cause some nasty flooding, this one will do more good than harm.  It won't end the drought and dry conditions, but the expected one to three inches of rain will surely help. 

In a few spots the rain Thursday into early Friday might come down a bit too hard, causing local small stream and street flooding here in Vermont.  That's especially true in spots that have missed out on beneficial rains in recent days.

The ground in those dry areas is hard from the dry weather, so there might be more runoff than usual.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a slight risk zone for some flash flooding later Thursday. 

Tropical Storm Elsa will blow through southeastern New England Friday, with heavy rain there, and possibly some damaging winds along the coast. If it takes a somewhat inland track, there could even be a tornado or two in southeastern New England. 

Up here in Vermont, we'll slowly start to dry out later on Friday.

Because of the clouds and rain, it will be quite cool again in Vermont today through Friday before temperatures get up to near normal levels over the weekend.

Elsa Hitting Florida, Missing Vermont, But, Maybe A Good Dump Of Rain?

Tropical Storm Elsa blasting the Florida Keys and 
southwestern parts of that state this morning 

UPDATE:

Tropical Storm Elsa now seems destined to become a hurricane by the time it hits northwestern Florida early tomorrow.

Despite a relatively hostile environment for hurricanes, its top winds had increased to 70 mph by mid afternoon today.

If winds nudge up just slightly more, which now seems likely, Elsa will become a Category 1 hurricane at landfall.

The storm does appear healthier than it did this morning, with thunderstorms trying to wrap westward around the center, despite upper level winds trying to hold back those storms more to the east of Elsa's center. 

As described below, whether Elsa is a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane, it doesn't make that much difference.

Either way, almost all of western Florida is experiencing, or will experience the risk of storm surge flooding along the coast. That's the biggest threat from the storm, so people in low lying areas ought to get out of the way, if they haven't already. 

Inland flooding is another issue. The winds will be strong enough to cause damage to trees and power lines, and power outages are becoming a problem in Florida. Well-built structures should withstand the winds just fine, but flimsy ones might not. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tropical Storm Elsa, as expected, is menacing Florida and other parts of the southeastern United States today.  

This storm will eventually pass east of New England later this week, which means it will have no direct effects here in Vermont. Though some indications are beginning to surface that Elsa could actually pass over eastern New England, we'll see. 

In any event, there's a shot at the weather here in Vermont turning kind of interesting due to some indirect effects of Elsa.  

Tropical Storm Elsa, on the verge of  becoming a 
hurricane, looks stronger and more organized 
this afternoon than it did this morning

More on that in a moment, but first let's focus on what's going on today in Florida. That's the main weather news of the day after all. 

As of 8 a.m. today, Tropical Storm Elsa was 55 miles west of Key West, Florida. It had top winds of 60 mph and was heading before it makes landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning in what is known as the Big Bend area of Florida. 

That's the area in northwestern Florida at the top of the peninsula that curves westward, along the northern shores of the Gulf of Mexico.

A hurricane watch is now in effect for most of the Florida west coast, all the way from near Fort Myers, up through Sarasota and Tampa all the way to a little southeast of Tallahassee. 

Experts don't think Tropical Elsa will blow up into a huge hurricane, but it could strengthen to a Category 1 storm, with winds of 75 mph or a little greater. The warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico would help feed the storm. Also, Elsa's forward speed is now about 12 mph. 

That's a much slower forward speed than a couple days ago, when Elsa was over the Caribbean.  A faster forward speed can disrupt the circulation, and also give it less time over water to strengthen. 

There are factors that would prevent Elsa from strengthening much. Those include some strong-ish upper level winds that would help pull thunderstorms away from Elsa's center, thereby weakening it 

Also, dry air is trying to get sucked into Elsa's western flank, which would help choke it off, says the National Hurricane Center. 

Overall, it doesn't really matter too much whether Elsa is a strong tropical storm or lower end hurricane at landfall.

There's still going to be plenty of problems with strong winds, dangerous coastal storm surges inland flooding and maybe even a few tornadoes on the Florida peninsula. 

A heavily built up, low lying western Florida is in the path of Elsa's strong, gusty rain bands. Plus, the eastern half of Elsa is the strongest and that's the part that will rumble over Florida's Gulf Coast. 

So yeah, there will probably be a lot of damage.

ELSA AND YOU

Tropical Storm Elsa, weakening inland, will spread flooding rains through the Southeast this week, then head off or along the coast, passing by Cape Cod sometime on Friday.

With northward moving tropical systems on the East Coast, you often get an area of heavy rain well to the north and northwest of the storm center. 

This is sometimes called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, and is most likely to happen if a stalled weather front is hung up somewhere north of the path of a tropical storm.  This can sometimes happen as far as 600 miles north or northwest of the storm. 

A PRE can sometimes cause a lot of flooding as rains with them can be torrential. 

Something like this might set up somewhere over New York or central or northern New England toward Thursday.  A PRE is hard to predict.  Sometimes they look like they might develop and then it ends up as a giant nothingburger.  

If this rainfall forecast comes true, Vermont would see
 anywhere from 1.5 inches (light purple) to three inches 
(red) of still-needed rain over the next seven days.
We'll see if this actually comes true!

It's even harder to predict exactly where these rain storms might set up. 

In any event, we have a chance at getting some decent rains in Vermont from this set up around Thursday.  So far, it doesn't look like any rain that does come will get way out of hand.  But we could be in for another beneficial soaking. 

I'd take any rainfall forecast with a grain of salt. Still, current forecasts, for what they're worth,  call for a half inch to an inch and half of rain Thursday and Thursday night across Vermont. 

Expect forecasts to shift upward or downward before the event. Also, expect the predicted bullseye of heaviest rain to move around quite a bit, too.

If we do get this rain, it would be in addition to the nice soaking over this past weekend in central and southern Vermont. 

Northern Vermont has partly missed out on the rain, but another third of an inch came down early this morning around my place in St. Albans, Vermont. We need frequent bouts of decent rains over the next few months to erase drought and dry conditions in Vermont. So if it wants to rain, we'll take it! 

In the meantime, today will be quite warm and humid, but we have another spell of cool weather coming in, though not as chilly as over the weekend.  A front separating clammy air to the north and humidity to the south will stall somewhere in southern New England tomorrow.

Northern Vermont, furthest away from the front,  will stay coolest today and tomorrow.  Highs will stay at or below 70 degrees both days. 

It'll turn at least seasonably warm this weekend. 

 

Vermont/New England Remarkably Chilly; But At Least It Rained

Lilies in my garden, dressed up in water
droplets from Saturday's light rain, get
a glimpse of sun this morning.

If you had big outdoor barbecue and beach plans yesterday in Vermont or anywhere else in New England, I'm sorry. 

It was about as chilly and raw and damp and rainy as you can possibly get on a Fourth of July weekend. Boston set a record for the coldest high temperature for any July day, as it got only to 60 degrees on Saturday. This just three days after Boston tied its all time high for June at 100 degrees.

Worcester, Massachusetts only managed a "high" of 57 degrees.

Up here in Vermont, Burlington on Saturday only had a high of 63 degrees. That is actually colder than the high temperature we had on Christmas Day, which was 65 degrees.

At least some needed rain fell. A swath through eastern New England reported one to three inches of rain Saturday, on top of more rainfall in the previous days. 

In Vermont, rain was spottier, but everybody except the northwest corner of the state got some decent rains, with most places over a half inch since Thursday night. Even up here in the drier northwest corner of Vermont some rain fell, and I'll take anything I can get. It was only 0.2 inches in St. Albans Friday and Saturday, but that came after a 0.8 inch dump on Wednesday, so that helps.

It will be interesting to see more detailed reports of Saturday's rainfall when that data comes out later this morning. It appears that last evening, several hours of pretty heavy rain fell on the eastern slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains from roughly Route 4 to at least east of St. Johnsbury if not further north. 

That zone has officially been in drought for months now, so if that area really did get a drenching, yesterday and last night will help. despite the chill.

THE FORECAST

This July at least so far and in the forecast for the next week or so, is incredibly different from the past three Julys, which were terribly hot and dry in and around Vermont. As noted yesterday, the past three Julys were the hottest on record, at least as measured in Burlington, Vermont.

It looks like July, 2021 will probably end that hot streak. 

Most days for the next week or so will be a bit cooler than normal, but certainly not as shiver-inducing as Saturday was. Plus, we have several more shots at getting additional rain, which we still need.

It seems today will have a bit of a split personality across Vermont.  The upper level low pressure system that brought us our dank Saturday has moved to near Maine. 

That means areas east of the Green Mountains should stay mostly or completely cloudy, with a risk of some more showers. There won't be nearly as much rain as yesterday.

West of the Green Mountains, today is looking OK. The sun was already out, briefly at my place in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning.   There still will be quite a few clouds around, but at least the sun will come out fro time to time. 

It'll still be cool for the season west of the Green Mountains --highs in the 68-74 degree range, I'd say.

It'll turn warmer tomorrow, and Tuesday will actually be kind of on the muggy side. There should be showers around later Monday night, and a good chance of showers and storms Tuesday.

Cooler air returns Wednesday and stays for the rest of the week, but we're not talking cold. Just 70s as opposed to the low 80s readings that are more typical for this time of year.

Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to move northeastward off the U.S. East Coast Thursday and Friday, and be too far to Vermont's south and east to directly affect us.

But moisture will flow into our neck of the woods Thursday to give us another good shot at rain, especially in southern Vermont. 

For those craving a return to hot weather, there are chances of it settling in after next weekend. We'll have to wait and see how that pans out.