NOAA Says Hurricane Season Is Going To Be Busy Again

Powerful Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico
last October on its way to devastating parts of
Florida. Forecasts predict another busy hurricane 
seasons in 2025. The season start June 1

Chances are we will have another busy Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA announced Friday with their annual spring hurricane forecast.

The NOAA forecast is for 13 to 19 named storms; six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes during this season, which officially begins June 1. 

Major hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 111 mph.  

The average season has 14 named storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes.

NOAA's forecast is actually a game of chances. They give a 60 percent chance that this season will be busier than normal, a 30 percent chance that it will be close to average and a 10 percent chance it will be on the light side. 

At least in recent years, "normal" hasn't really happened, Every Atlantic hurricane season has produced more storms that average, a standard based on data from 1990 to 2020, reports CBS News. Four of those season only produced two or three major hurricanes, which is at or slightly below normal for the particularly strong storms. 

REASONS WHY

 Several factors went into 2025's forecast for above normal activity.

Neither El Nino or La Nina is going on in the Pacific. These two phenomenon affect ocean temperatures off the west coast of South America and have worldwide effect on the weather. 

An El Nino tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes because it creates stronger upper level winds over the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop. Those strong upper level winds tear apart the thunderstorms that are essentially baby hurricanes, preventing them from developing. 

The neutral conditions in the Pacific mean those strong upper level winds in the Atlantic are less likely in the late summer and fall, so tropical storms would have a better chance of developing.

There's warmer than average water in most of the areas where hurricanes tend to develop. Warmer water is jet fuel for hurricanes, helping them develop and get stronger. Though this year the water isn't quite as hot as it was in 2024, which proved to be a hyperactive hurricane season despite an odd lull in activity during August.

That might mean 2025 might be busier than usual, but not insane.

Finally, monsoon activity in West Africa is forecast to be above normal.. Disturbances coming off west coast of Africa emerge into the Atlantic and sometime develop into hurricanes. The more of these disturbances that head into the Atlantic, the greater the chance that some of them will develop into hurricanes.

OTHER FORECAST

The closely-watched Colorado State University hurricanes season forecast also call for an above normal 2025.

Their forecast, issued April 3. predicts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The University will offer an updated seasonal hurricane forecast on June 11

Ominously, Colorado State says there's an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline in 2025.

We're already had an unusually high number of major, destructive hurricanes hitting the United States in recent years.

They include hurricanes that cost $1 billion or more like Harvey (Texas) and Irma (Florida) in 2017;  Michael (Florida), 2018 Laura and Zeta (Louisiana) in 2020; Ida (Louisiana) 2021; Ian (Florida), 2022; Idalia (Florida, 2023) and Helene and Milton, (both Florida), 2024.

As you can see, Florida in particular has been especially punished in recent years. So the prospect of more major hurricanes hitting that state has to strike a nerve, 

Forecasting where hurricanes will go before the season starts is exceedingly difficult. Meteorologists can detect patterns that could tell where these storms are a little more likely to go, but all kinds of factors can make that happen, or make that not happen. 

Though hurricane season starts June 1, the storms are usually relatively infrequent until August hits. (In some years, tropical storms can form before June 1) In the short term, no tropical storm developing is in the forecast for at least the next seven days.  

Yes, The United States HAS Had A Lot Of Tornadoes This Year

A massive tornado in Lake City, Arkansas on April 2.
So far, this has been a very busy season for 
tornadoes in the U.S.

 If you been thinking that almost all you've heard in weather news this spring is tornadoes, there's a reason for it. 

The United States has had an exceptionally busy early part of tornado season. Through April 7, there have been 473 tornadoes. 

On average by April 7, there's normally about 270 tornadoes this far into the season, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

That doesn't necessarily mean that will continue, but for now, we're way ahead of normal.

March got things off to a rousing start and the first week of April was even worse. A lull in tornado activity started on Monday and will probably last at least a week during which few tornadoes will touch down. 

But there are tentative signs that things could get really busy again toward the end of the month as we head toward the heart of tornado season. (Tornadoes activity usually peaks in May and early June).

 MARCH

There were no fewer than 175 confirmed tornadoes in March, and that number might go up as other reports are confirmed.

That's double the amount the United States usually sees in March..

March was punctuated by an unusually large tornado outbreak in the middle of the month with 116 twisters reported.  That's a big outbreak for any time of year but it's really odd for so early in the season. 

 The two busiest years for March tornadoes were 234 in 2022 and 208 in 2023.  Part of the issues is weak tornadoes are better detected than they were years and decades ago, so those are added to the count. 

March is usually just the beginning of tornado season. The vast majority of U.S. tornadoes strike in April, May and June. 

APRIL

April got off to an explosive tornado start. So far, no fewer than 182 tornadoes have been counted in the first seven days of April. That number -  182 - happens to be the average number of tornados for an entire April.  That's easily one of the busiest early Aprils on record. Through Monday, tornadoes had been reported somewhere in the U.S. on 12 consecutive days. 

That's the earliest in the year on record in which there were at least ten consecutive days with tornadoes.

As noted above, we have a lull going in tornado activity. Especially given super April tornado outbreaks in 1974 and 2011, I doubt there will be record number of twisters this month. Still forecasters are expecting at least the possibility of a notable uptick in severe storms and tornadoes toward the end of this month. 

Generally speaking more tornadoes occur in late April rather than early in the month. 

The record for April twisters is 757 in 2011. Interestingly, last year had the second highest number of April tornadoes with at least 356 twisters.

By the way, last year was the second busiest tornado year on record, with just under 1,800 twisters in the U.S,

LA NINA/CLIMATE CHANGE

However, the Washington Post reports that the increase in March tornadoes in recent years can't be fully explained by better counting. 

Part of it might be La Nina, a periodic cooling of eastern Pacific waters. One of the effects of that cooling is a wavier jet stream across the continental United States. A wavy jet stream means more and stronger storm systems. 

If these storms can produce the correct clash of warm, humid air from the south and frigid air from the north, and adequate shifting winds in the atmosphere, you get tornadoes. 

Both 2022 and 2023, those busy tornado Marches, were La Nina years.

La Nina has pretty much faded away, so that will probably be no longer much of an influence on the rest of tornado season. The second reason for so many tornadoes might not go away so fast. And this second reason has to do with climate change.  The Gulf of Mexico is toastier than normal, a trend that has been consistent in recent years as a warmer atmosphere also heats up the oceans. 

When the Gulf water is warmer, it allows even more moisture to stream northward into the kind of storm systems that spin off tornadoes. Humid air is a key ingredient for tornadoes, so the more moisture the merrier, at least from the perspective of twisters. 

La Nina is fading. And besides, the effects of La Nina tend to fade as we head further into spring.

However, warm Gulf of Mexico waters do influence tornadoes well into spring and early summer. 

That's not to say the rest of tornado season will be supercharged. It just increases the odds somewhat. 

But you never know what will happen. March, 2012 was a busy and tragic month for tornadoes, with 223 twisters reported. 

That month was punctuated by an intense tornado outbreak on March 2-3 that produced 81 tornadoes which killed at least 40 people.

But it turned out the rest of the 2012 tornado season was pretty unremarkable. The year ended up with about 1,000 tornadoes, Which seems like a lot but was still about 300 below normal.

By contrast, there weren't many tornadoes in March and early April, 2004. But the year turned out to have the most tornadoes on record, with 1,819 twisters, including 389 in just the final 11 days of May that year.   Tornado deaths that year were mercifully low considering the numbers, amounting to 35 people 

That's tragic of course, but fewer than in many of the slowest tornado years.  

Foliage Season Brought 2.5 Million Visitors To Vermont

Scenes like this in Underhill Vermont on October 17
drew 2.5 million leaf peepers to the not so Green
Mountain State this autumn.

If you live in Vermont and felt kinda crowded during October, there's a great reason why.  

A new report says 2.5 million leaf peepers roamed the state during the foliage season and left behind a cool $500 million in spending on lodging, restaurants, attractions and other related stuff, reports WPTZ

The numbers aren't final either. As of this weekend, there were still some straggling colorful leaves left over to add a little beauty to our increasingly stick season surroundings. That meant there were a few straggling tourists taking in the last of the foliage. 

WPTZ checked in with some individual businesses to see how they did, and their reporters got the same story state tourism officials were telling them. 

"It was the busiest we've ever seen; I mean, you can still see it's busy, and it just kept on going, we have seen record numbers, and it's amazing We love it," Andrew Tascarella, the floor manager at Shaw's General Store in Stowe told WPTZ. 

In the fall foliage mecca of Woodstock, Vermont, the local Chamber of Commerce said they've also had an incredibly busy autumn. 

It appears people were not deterred by the nationwide reports of severe flooding in the Green Mountain State this summer. While people are still certainly suffering in the destructive aftermath, almost all the state was patched up, repaired and ready for tourists.

The weather was certainly gorgeous in September and October, and that helped. It probably didn't influence people who came here from long distances, seeing how they probably made their travel arrangements well before weather forecasts blared the good news about the sunny skies.

Then again, the bright weather to match the bright foliage probably encouraged those tourists to explore and spend money, rather than holing up in their hotel rooms on cold rainy days.

The fantastic weather also probably encouraged spur of the moment day trippers to take a trip up here to Vermont, I imagine. 

The abnormally warm autumn, the nearly daily sunshine and placid weather kept those colorful leaves on the trees later in the season than they would have if we had our typically stormy, windy fall.  That kept the leaf peepers peeping in Vermont longer than in most years.

This is subjective, but I'd give the quality of this year's foliage a B+.  It wasn't the most brilliant display I can remember, as the bright reds were somewhat lacking. But it was still gorgeously colorful and the tourists definitely got their money's worth.  

The big outbreak of snoliage - colorful leaves with snow covered mountains - that hit mid month was certainly a huge bonus. 

We are now getting into the November quiet before ski season arrives. The bulk of the winter sports folks won't be here for a good month or more. They need snow after all. Much of northern Vermont will get teased by some snow showers tonight that could leave a dusting even in many valleys. 

But record high temperatures are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, so those skis and snowboards probably won't get much use quite yet.  

For those who somehow missed the Vermont fall foliage this summer, what follows is a couple videos I took:

A "snoliage" tour around Cambridge and Underhill, Vermont on October 17. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Next, some driving around northwestern Vermont last week yielded these images. Again, click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

A Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? One Forecast Group Says So

A University of Pennsylvania team is forecast a 
record busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean
this year. It's the second major prediction that calls
for a potentially chaotic and dangerous season.

A forecasting group from the University of Pennsylvania said they expect a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season with perhaps 33 named storms.  

If you think I've already written about a hurricane forecast this year, you're right. A  Colorado State University forecast issued in early April which said 23 tropical storms or hurricanes were in the cards for the Atlantic Ocean this summer and autumn. 

The newer University of Pennsylvania hurricane forecast that just came out is in line with, but definitely more ominous than that Colorado State University prediction. 

The forecast from the University of Pennsylvania team, led by climatologist Michael Mann, actually has a forecast of between 27 and 39 named storms, but 33 is their more pinpointed forecast. If there's 33 named storms, that would exceed the current record for the most number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in a single season. That was a total of 30 such storms in 2020.

An average season produces about 14 Atlantic storms, about half of which become hurricanes. Seven of the past eight years have been busier than normal hurricane seasons. Warm ocean waters - probably with climate change contributing - have helped force these storms. 

THE REASONING

One big reason for Mann & Co's bullish 2024 hurricane forecast is the already hot water in the Atlantic Ocean in the region where most hurricane develop. Per the Washington Post: 

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a marine heat wave, or sea surface temperature well above normal, to continue in the tropical Atlantic through at least September. That has forecasters concerned about an active hurricane season because warmer ocean waters typically increase the intensity of storms."

Another reason why the team at the University of Pennsylvania think this year is going to be a blockbuster for hurricanes is that El Nino is rapidly falling apart. El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That warming contributes to strong upper level winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

Those strong upper level winds tear apart thunderstorms that are the building blocks for tropical storms and hurricanes. Rip apart those thunderstorms and you rip apart the chances they'll grow into a hurricane  

Long range forecasts for the summer and fall call for the opposite of El Nino, which is La Nina. That consisted of coolish water in the eastern Pacific and calmer upper level winds over the Atlantic. That would more likely allow tropical storms and hurricanes to form. 

If La Nina fails to develop, the number of expected hurricanes in the Atlantic would decrease this year, Mann says. But only a little. That hot water out there would still contribute to storms. 

TRACK RECORD

Here's something that might make people who don't like hurricanes more nervous. The University of Pennsylvania hurricane predictions in most recent years have more often than not predicted fewer such storms than what actually developed. 

Last year, the University of Pennsylvania team predicted 16 tropical storms and hurricanes. We ended up with 20. Luckily the majority of those missed populated land areas.

In that blockbuster year of 2020, University of Pennsylvania predicted 20 storms, ten less than the Atlantic actually produced.

The last time University of Pennsylvania sort of predicted too many storms was in 2016. They anticipated 19 storms and we got 15. Even so, 2016 was within their margin of error. They actually said there would be 19 storms that year, plus or minus four. 

WHERE THEY GO

What really matters, of course, is where hurricanes go after they form. If they have an opportunity to head north well off the coast and hit cold water in the North Atlantic, then no problem. They just go up there and die.

If a strong Bermuda High is north of a hurricane and that high pressure system extends its influence into the United States, chances are the hurricane would head into the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, anything from Florida to Texas could take a hit, or the storm could just divert to Mexico instead. It depends on the steering patterns over the Gulf. 

If there's a dip in the jet stream in the central United States, that dip could steer a hurricane into the East Coast. If that dip in the jet stream is right along or just off the East Coast, chances are that hurricane would be steered safely out to sea. It all depends on the weather pattern when the hurricane is roaming around out there. 

Of course, the more hurricanes there are, the greater the chance that some will hit land. Which is why the University of Pennsylvania forecast is so worrying. 

Already the Atlantic Ocean is beginning and to throw hints of what might be to come. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday they were monitoring a swirling disturbance in the east central Atlantic Ocean. 

It looked like a nascent tropical storm, though strong upper level winds were forecast to destroy the small storm before it could grow much.  That one was a fizzle, but soon enough, we'll start having tropical storms and hurricanes that could spell trouble. 

 

NOAA Agree: Hurricane Season To Be Busy Again This Year

Hurricane Ida on approach to Louisiana last year. 
NOAA is predicting yet another busy 
hurricane season for 2022.

 NOAA weighed in with their seasonal hurricane forecast for this year, and they agree with pretty much everyone else: We're in for another busy hurricane season.  

NOAA does this in percent chances.  They tell  us there's a 65 percent chance of a busy season, a 25 percent chance of near normal activity and only a 10 percent chance we'll have fewer than average tropical systems this year. 

If this hurricane season is busier than usual, it will be the seventh such season in a row. 

Like all hurricane forecasts, NOAA doesn't really get into how many of these storms will hit the U.S. coast. That's awfully hard to predict until you have an actual hurricane out there to track. But it's all a matter of chances.

The more tropical storms and hurricanes you have buzzing around out there, the greater the chance at least a couple of them would splash ashore in the United States.

Here are a few more details from NOAA:

"For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (wind of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3,4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these range s with a 70 percent confidence."

Reasons for the expected busy hurricane season include the following:

La Nina: A periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean is continuing this year. This tends to weaken upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean.  With these weaker winds, clusters of thunderstorms that want to be tropical storms stand less chance of getting blown apart before gaining momentum into an organized hurricane

Water Temperatures: Water temperatures in much of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are above normal.  The warmer the water, the more fuel for wannabe tropical storms. 

African Monsoon: Central and western Africa are subject to a series of wet storm systems during their seasonal monsoon in the summer and early autumn.  These disturbances move off the west coast of Africa and can become hurricanes. This monsoon activity is forecast to be above normal this year.  

Climate Change: The exact role climate change has with hurricanes is still being studied. But some indications are that the warmer ocean waters can contribute to more such storms. The warmer water might also enable hurricanes to form further north than in the past. 

Or, hurricanes coming in from the south will be able to maintain their strength longer as they move over what used to be cold water, but is now warmer due to a changing climate. 

Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem. They can
cause catastrophic flooding well inland after their winds 
have died down.  This is a Vermont house destroyed
by Hurricane Irene's flooding in 2011.

NOAA's hurricane forecast is consistent with other forecasts. The closely watched Colorado State University hurricane forecast, for instance calls for 19 named storms, against an average of 14.4 such storms each year.

The Colorado State University forecast also predicts four major hurricanes this year, in line with NOAA's estimate.

Keep in mind that if a hurricane smacks into a distant coastline, it can still be your problem. We saw a classic example of that last year after Hurricane Ida slammed into Louisiana. A few days later, its remnants unleashed catastrophic flooding in New York City, New Jersey and some surrounding areas.

Winds with hurricanes die out pretty quickly once they reach shore. The torrential rains can last a lot longer. Climate change gives that a boost because warmer air can hold more tropical moisture than cooler air. Which can make the remnant downpours from hurricanes that much worse. 

Hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean starts June 1 and continues through November. You can see tropical storms outside that season, but they are relatively rare. At the moment, there's no signs of any tropical systems trying to form. Give it time, they will.