It's That Time Of Year For Winter Forecasts. Not That They'll Actually Come True, But......

NOAA is leaning toward a milder than normal winter
in the South and East. Here in Vermont, I doubt
it will be as toasty as last winter, which was
the warmest on record. 

 Every year, countless people and organizations try to read the tea leaves to tell us in advance what kind of winter we'll have.  

The forecasts are very often wrong, but whatever. I guess it's fun to try.

For a change, there's one certainty in the winter forecast for Vermont that we haven't seen in other years: I almost guarantee this winter will be colder than last. 

That's because last winter was the warmest on record, and in much of the Champlain Valley, it never even got below zero last go around. 

But will it be just a tiny bit cooler than last winter, but still warm? Or will the bottom drop out of the thermometers in December, January and February?

Dunno, since long range forecasts are often super unrelaible.

But let's see what the pundits have to say.

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 

NOAA is forecasting a La Nina winter, which is a cold phase for water in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences much of the weather around the world.

That means says NOAA, that chances in general favor warmer than average temperatures in the southern and eastern United States and with colder than average weather in the Northwest.

Precipitation under NOAA's scenario would be on the light side across the southern United States and leaning perhaps above normal in the Pacific Northwest and near the Great Lakes.

For us in Vermont, NOAA is leaning toward warmer than normal, but not as strongly as they are for the southern United States. As for whether it will be wetter or drier than average, NOAA says it's a tossup for us, maybe leaning sort of toward the wet side.

Of course, the other question is whether that precipitation would be mostly in the form of rain or snow. La Nina winters slightly favor above normal snowfall in northern New England, ,so we shall see.

Last year, NOAA predicted we'd have a warm winter and they were right. They'd said that winter precipitation would be a tossup and it kind of was. December was very wet, January was sort of wet and February was dry.  A mixed bag there.

THE OLD FARMERS ALMANAC

This publication is not going for the wild winter weather it so often predicts. Says the Almanac: 

"'This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down through most of the United States, reports Carol Conner, the Almanac's editor-in-chief. 'While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn't hit so hard. We're predicting a temperate, uneventful winter - potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.'" 

Unlike NOAA, The Old Farmer's Almanac has the South getting the bulk of the precipitation this winter. They expect the most snowfall relative to average in southern and central Appalachia, parts of the Ohio Valley and the Rockies.  

The Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for a winter that
will not be as dramatic as many recent winters.

The Old Farmer's Almanac map is kinda weird. It describes the upcoming winter here in New England and extending out to the northern Great Lakes and northern Plains as "mild, dry."

 But they have these odd little pockets of "cold, dry, stranding the Ohio/Pennsylvania border and in an area around souther Lake Michigan.

That doesn't really make meteorological sense, but whatever.  

Last year, the Old Farmer's Almanac was partly right for what happened in the winter 2023-24. They correctly said it would be mild, and it was certainly that. They also said it would be snowy, but snowfall was below normal last winter. 

THE FARMERS ALMANAC

Not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac, about, this publication is just the Farmers Almanac. Sure, a little redundant maybe, but we'll deal. 

This outfit seems to be anticipating more drama than most of the other prognosticators. Most other forecasters limit the extent of persistent cold in the United States this winter, but the Farmers Almanac kind of goes for broke. 

They call for a cold winter in the Northwest and a vast part of the nation's middle, except the southern Plains. 

The Farmers Almanac predicts most of the South and East would generally be on the mild side, but with some intrusions of cold.

This group also is pushing a lot of storminess this winter.   The only place they anticipate lighter precipitation is in the southern Plains.

For us in Vermont, they have us somewhat on the mild side with very frequent bouts of rain and/or snow. 

THE WEATHER CHANNEL

The folks at the Weather Channel are pretty much in line with NOAA/The National Weather Service. They're predicting a warmer than average winter for pretty much the eastern and southern two thirds o the United States, including us up here in New England,

They're forecasting things to be on the chilly side in the northwestern part of the Lower 48.  It does seem the Weather Channel is a little more bullish on the eastern warmth than NOAA, We shall see! 

ACCUWEATHER

AccuWeather is in general agreement with most forecasters, predicting more or less warmer than usual conditions across the South and East.

They're focusing largely on snow, and are saying the heaviest snow, relative to average, would hit in the interior Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, the western Great Lakes and northern New England. Their forecast of variable temperatures this winter, including thaws, means that ski slope snow might be icy or partly melted at times.

But that's pretty much par for the course in our neck of the woods. 

It it does prove to be an overall snowy in New England, AccuWeather is hinting that the bulk of it would hit late in the winter.

Last year, AccuWeather predicted a snowy winter in the Northeast. That didn't really come to pass.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Most forecasts agree with each other about what will happen with the weather this winter, and it's a bit unusual for almost everybody to be on the same page with these long range forecasts. By the way, I'm ignoring the click bait prognosticators on line who always predict ridiculous extremes to attract eyeballs and revenue, but don't actually know what they're doing. 

In any event, winter surprises are always possible. I'd say perhaps even likely.

And remember, even if the overall winter does turn out to be warm, that doesn't mean we won't have intense cold spells. For instance, the winter of 2022-23 was the fourth warmest on record. But we did have a quick spell of record cold in New England in the beginning of February that year. 

Whatever happens, winter will keep us Vermonters on our toes like it always does. 

My winter prediction is the same as it is every year. I'll let you know at the beginning of March, when it's pretty much over. Other than that, it's anybody's guess. And given what I've written above, anyone and everyone is indeed making guessing as to what winter will bring. 

 

United States Weird Weather Of 2021: Things Really Got Out Of Hand

Middlebury, Vermont made the cut in the Weather Channel's
list of weirdest national weather of 2021. A tornado
struck the town on March 26, severely damaging this
home. It's the only known March tornado to have
occurred in Vermont 

The Weather Channel in one of their year end reviews, highlights a list of what they view were the weirdest weather events of the year.

They had plenty to pick from this year, with the weather so often off the rails, due largely to climate change.

Most of the weird list includes odd warm and hot spells and strange storms in places that aren't used to such things. 

 Vermont made the Weather Channel's list of weird weather. They highlighted that tornado that struck Middlebury in March.  Tornadoes are rare in Vermont and they're completely unheard of in March in the Green Mountain State. At least until now, I guess. 

Speaking of tornadoes, New Jersey seems to be the nation's new Tornado Alley. Thirteen tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey this year, as opposed to the annual average of one or two.

Wildfires loomed large in the headlines during 2021. Among the weirdest moments was a photo of a snow making machine going full blast at a ski resort called Sierra at Tahoe resort in August. They were not trying to get an early jump on the ski season.

It was a desperate attempt to wet the ground and increase the humidity in the air as a huge wildfire approached the resort.  Between the snow making machines, firefighter efforts and luck, the resort survived the fire.  

In other smoky news, a huge area of Siberia was on fire this summer, something that has become increasingly common.  But for maybe the first time in recorded history, smoke from the fires went right over the North Pole in August.  

Snowmaking equipment was pressed into service this 
summer at a Nevada ski resort to battle huge wildfires in
the region.  Photo by Josh Edelson/AFP via 
Getty Images.

NASA scientists can't absolutely confirm this is the first time it happened, it does seem to be the first time this has been caught on satellite imagery. 

The Weather Channel says another wildfire in British Columbia generated an enormous thunderstorm the size of Georgia

The updrafts from the intense heat and smoke of wildfires sometimes generate clouds known as pyrocumulonimbus, which is a thunderstorm generated by those updrafts. These are dangerous because they produce erratic winds that spread the wildfire beneath it. The lightning spitting out of these pyro-clouds start new fires.

This one was arguably the worst fire-generated thunderstorm on record. It yielded 113,000 cloud to lighting bolts, which is 5 percent of Canada's normal yearly total. That's impressive, as thousands of thunderstorms form in the vast landscape of Canada each year.

There was also strange heat in places we wouldn't expect. We know about British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest in June. But how about this? It was100 degrees in North Dakota. At the end of September. 

It does sometimes get to 100 degrees in that northern state in the middle of summer. But it certainly has never happened on September 28. Until this year. It got up to 100 degrees in Dickenson and Watford.

The other odd heat wasn't that hot, but certainly bizarre for the location.  The top of Greenland's ice sheet is more than 10,000 feet above sea level and is always frigid.  

Ice core data indicates it had never been above freezing at Summit from at least the late 1800s to 1995, when it briefly got above freezing. Other brief thaws happened in 2012 and 2019. But rain had never been seen there.

Until August 14, when it rained at Summit Station and stayed above freezing for nine hours.  If all that isn't a disconcerting  sign of climate change I don't know what is. 

In other warm weather news, cherry blossoms in Kyoto, Japan bloomed the earliest in the season in at least 1,200 years. 

And one final small weird moment: Near Madison, Wisconsin in September, small hail that resembled donuts or more accurately Cheerios turned up. 

I Don't Really Trust All Those Winter Weather Forecasts.

For what it's worth, here's a map depicting NOAA's forecast
for this coming winter. They're saying chances are we'll 
have a warm winter in the Northeast. However, take all
long range forecasts, including all those winter 
forecasts floating out there with a huge grain of salt

Frankly, I don't trust long range forecasts. There's all kinds of things that could go wrong, and do, when these forecasts hit.  

But the pundits and predictors soldier on anyway. As usual for this time of year,    winter season forecasts are accumulating faster than snow in a February nor'easter.  

While science goes into some of those forecasts, you still want to take them with a grain of salt.  Or maybe a whole bag of rock salt, I don't know. 

If you want me to tell you what this winter will be like, talk to me in March or April. By then, we'll know the results and we won't have to speculate.

Still, more than any other season it seems, people want to know in advance what winter will be like. 

I have noticed some patterns with this. For the past several years at least, NOAA/National Weather Service has predicted in advance that the following winters would be warm here in Vermont. 

Other publications are a little more prone to foreseeing gloom and doom.  

Here's my bias: NOAA isn't really all that interested in social media clicks, so they just go with what they think will happen. My conspiratorial mind thinks that other outlets want to see "engagement" so what better way to do that than tell people the end of the world is nigh. 

Let's start with NOAA's winter forecast: They're saying this winter in the Northeast will in general be warmer than average. I've had people tell me, "Oh, they say that every winter."  And those people are right. For each of the past seven winter forecasts NOAA has issued, they've said we were in for a warmer than average winter. 

Maybe it's global warming, but I have to say NOAA has been right most of the time. Of the past seven winters, in which NOAA told us we'd have a warm winter,  five have turned out warmer than average, one was quite a bit colder than average and one was right around normal.

So that's a pretty good track record.

For what it's worth, the Old Farmer's Almanac says New England will have a generally cold and dry winter this year. They're track record in recent winters has been mixed at best. 

Last winter was relatively warm and dry up here in Vermont. The Old Farmer's Almanac had predicted a wet and somewhat cold winter, so nah, not quite. 

They weren't 100% right in 2020 either, though they were correct that the coldest temperatures of the winter that year would be in mid January to early February.  But that is normally the coldest part of winter so the Old Farmer's Almanac's prediction wasn't exactly a revelation.

The Old Farmer's Almanac was pretty close to being right in 2019 and 2018, so I'll give them credit there. They were way off in 2017 and 2016 and half right in 2015. In 2015, they got the prediction of a cold New England right, but were wrong about a lack of snow. Boston had its snowiest winter in history. 

I don't mean totally diss the Old Farmer's Almanac. Every year the whole Almanac is an entertaining, folksy read, so I recommend buying it. Just don't necessarily believe their weather forecasts. 

The Weather Channel also has a mixed record in recent years of predicting winters. Again, for what it's worth, they're saying here in Vermont the variable winter weather should average out to something close to normal. We'll see. 

Of course, this is the same outfit that said the Southern Plains would have a warm February, when they ended up having arguably their worst cold snap on record.

The Weather Channel, at least for our neck of the woods, was way off in the winter of 2020 by predicting a cold winter. It was warm. They were pretty close to accurate for the winter of 2019, mostly wrong in 2018 and 2017, pretty accurate in 2016 and not too bad in 2015.

Just like all the other organizations, I'm not meaning to disrespect The Weather Channel, which is full of fine meteorologists and journalists. It's just that it's foolhardy to make winter weather forecasts.

Plenty of other meteorologists and publications have also made their annual winter weather predictions. I won't go into them, because you already got the idea here. 

Weather is always surprising. Especially so in Vermont during the winter. 

If I really MUST make a winter prediction for Vermont, I'll give you this. It will definitely snow. There will be cold days. The winter will be cold unless it's not, and it will be snowy unless it's not.

That's the best I can do, folks!