Blizzard Of '26 And Blizzard Of '78 : Teasing Out Which Was Worse and Which Was Snowier

A parking lot in Fall River, Massachusetts
last evening. Photo by Abby Camacho

 For nearly a half century now, New Englanders have been regaling their offspring with tales of the epic Blizzard of 1978.

Now, young victims of hearing those 1978 stories over and over again will now probably spend the next half century torturing the next generation or two with stories of the epic Blizzard of 2026. 

By most measures, the Blizzard of 1978 was a worse storm than the Blizzard of 2026.

DAMAGE/DEATHS/WIND COMPARED

In 1978, 100 people died in the storm and 4,500 were injured. Of course, we don't have a final toll from yesterday's storm, but it won't get that high. 

So far, two deaths have been reported with this storm. There will be more, because I expect heart attacks from snow shoveling, carbon monoxide poisoning because of vents buried in snow, falls from people clearing roofs and other accidents. 

Both the 1978 and 2026 storms were destructive, but 1978 was clearly worse. It caused $520 million in damage, using 1978 dollars. Correcting for inflation, the toll from that storm would har been about $2.7 billion in 2026 dollars. 

The 1978 damage included destruction from storm surges that destroyed coastal homes in New England. From Maine to Virginia, there was damage from storm surges in this week's storm, but it clearly was not nearly as severe as 1978.  

The 1978 storm caused coastal destruction through four high tide cycles. Yesterday's storm stirred up trouble only during one high tide.

The 2026 storm was destructive in other ways, judging from the hundreds of thousands of power outages, countless fallen trees and some structural damage. New York City is now littered with dozens of fallen trees, some of which crushed cars and awnings. 

As of this morning, 362,800 homes and businesses were still without power in the Northeast. That includes 253,000 or so Massachusetts outages. 

A house in Halifax, Massachusetts just before the
Blizzard of '26.........

We don't yet have an estimate of damage from this storm, but I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches $1 billion or more. 

The top wind gust recorded during the Blizzard of 1978 was 111 mph in Scituate, Massachusetts. 

The Blizzard of 2026 didn't quite reach those levels. But Newport, Rhode Island gusted to 89 mph; Montauk, Long Island had a gust to 84 mph. 

Other strong gusts include 83 mph in Nantucket and 82 in Dennis, Massachusetts. We saw many reports of gusts exceeding 70 mph on Monday. 

SNOWFALL.

Snow was really where the Blizzard of 2026 shined. 

The biggest snow total from the Blizzard of 1978 was 40 inches in Plymouth County, Massachusetts. So far, I haven't seen a total that high from yesterday, but deep snow was clearly more widespread in 2026 than in 1978

.....and the same house after the Blizzard of '26. Photos by
Erika Rossini. 

Final snow totals aren't in yet but the information tells us that people are buried. Five states - Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey and New York - had reports of more than 30 inches of snow. 

The big snow winner was Rhode Island. Namely Providence. The final snow total there was 37.9 shattering the city's record snowstorm of 28.6 inches set in, yes, 1978.

The Rhode Island statewide record for biggest snowstorm was 38 inches in Woonsocket in 1978.  So Providence just missed that. It's possible that we might see a late breaking total in Rhode of more than 38 inches, but we haven't seen that yet.  

The most snow I've seen in Massachusetts so far is 37 inches in Bliss Corner, which is is Bristol County. 

In New York City, the final storm total in Central Park stuck at 19.7 inches, their ninth biggest snowstorm on record. Other sections of New York City had much more. The most snow reported in the Big Apple was 29 inches in Grasmere and 27.8 inches at Todt Hill. Both locations are on Staten Island. 

Newark, New Jersey has 27.2 inches of snow, just 0.6 inches short of their biggest snowstorm in January, 1996.

WHAT'S NEXT

People in the blizzard zone can probably be forgiven if they want all that snow to melt. It was a late season storm, which makes thaws more likely than a January storm would have. 

Indeed, after some subfreezing temperatures today, readings on Wednesday through Sunday will be a little above freezing, which will help to settle the snow. 

However, a one to three inches of snow is possible tonight and tomorrow. And a cold wave will likely hold temperatures below freezing next Monday

VERMONT EFFECTS

As mentioned yesterday, the Green Mountain State sat out this blizzard.  Up to five inches of snow fell near the Massachusetts border, and light snow extended up into Rutland and Windsor counties, with little accumulation. Flurries fell elsewhere in Vermont.

In the Blizzard of 1978, up to two feet of snow fell in Rutland and a few other southern Vermont locations. The 1978 storm was lighter up north, with only four inches in Burlington.  

It looks like we in Vermont might have a little issue with snow tomorrow. Most of the trouble, once again, will be with the timing of the snow rather than the amounts.

A short burst of steady snow is likely for tomorrow morning's commute, especially in central and southern Vermont. We'd only get an inch or two of snow, but drive time could get dicey.

Then, in the afternoon, it might get a little above freezing in the valleys for a time, but snow showers and maybe snow squalls could enter the picture toward later afternoon and evening. Once again, we have lousy timing. 

The snow showers and squalls might abruptly make the roads icy. That's especially true because they'll quickly drop temperatures below freezing, so water on the roads would freeze along with the fresh bit of snow from the squalls. 

We won't actually get much snow out of this. Projected accumulations tomorrow are about a half inch to two inches, with maybe a tad more in the mountains. 

Our never ending winter does not show many signs of ending just yet.

How Our Big Vermont Heat Wave Compared With Past June Hot Spells

Thunderheads billow into the sky over St. Albans Bay,
Vermont during the peak of this past week's heat wave on
Wednesday.  The scattered showers and storms probably
prevented actual high temperatures from getting even
higher than they did

 Before the just-ended heat wave, I predicted this would be among the biggest June hot spells on record for Vermont.   

Sure enough, this was a biggie, but not the most extreme we've seen.

The most notable record was the minimum temperature in Burlington on Wednesday, June 19 of 80 degrees. That ties the all-time record for highest minimum temperature for any date in Burlington.

The persistence of the heat in Burlington overnight, was incredible. The temperature rose above 78 degrees from a little before 9 a.m. June 18 until a little after 3 p.m. June 20 when a strong thunderstorm dropped the temperature to 72 degrees. 

 The high temperature Wednesday in Burlington was 96 degrees, four degrees short of the record for the date and the all time record high for the month, also set on June 19 back in 1995. I have a feeling that we would have made it closer to 100 had the sun stayed consistently out all day. 

But the air was so humid it generated numerous showers and storms, which helped keep temperatures down by a few degrees. 

I'd still rate our recent hot spell as worse than the one in 1995. The average temperature in Burlington on June 19, 2024 was 88 degrees and due to a cooler night back then, the mean temperature on June 19, 1995 was half a degree cooler. 

And we only had two days in a row with temperatures over 90 back in that hot spell in 1995. 

 I did find a June hot spell way more intense than the one this past week.  Probably the worst June hot spell on record came in June, 1946. It would have been the second longest heat wave on record if one day had not fallen just short of 90 degrees.

On June 24-30 the highs in Burlington were 90,92,94,89,93,96,93.

Unlike this year, June, 1946 was chilly until that late month heat wave.

TRENDS

Overall, Burlington has had a grand total of 82 heat waves since the 1880s. A heat wave here is defined as three or more consecutive days in which the temperature reaches 90 degrees or more. 

This was only the 16th heat wave entirely within the month of June. Climate change is likely contributing to more hot weather in June than in past decades. 

Temperatures above 95 degrees used to be rare in June, happening in only a handful of years prior to this century. With Wednesday's high of 96 in Burlington, that makes four of the past five Junes making it to 96 degrees in Burlington. 

Junes with multiple days going to 90 or above seem to be increasing, too. Including this year, I found 13 Junes in the past century in Burlington with at least four days in the 90s. Seven of those Junes have happened since 1999. Only three of them were before 1983. 

More 90s this June are certainly possible, but unlikely. The best chances of it happening are this coming Wednesday, but that's really iffy.

There's plenty more time for additional hot days in July and August, though. 

The record for the most 90s in a single year still stands at 26, back in 1949. It would be a real tall order to break that record in 2024.

Vermont Flash Flood Threat To Grow In Coming Days

Flash flood damage in Waitsfield, 
Vermont, June 1998. The 
upcoming week's weather pattern
reminds me a bit of conditions
in the early summer of 1998

 The forecast for locally  heavy rain over the next several days here in northern New England is causing growing concern for the risk of flash flooding as we go into next week. 

Daily chances of torrential downpours from slow moving showers and thunderstorms start today and last probably into Thursday. 

 As for today, a lot of us will see bursts of heavy rain, with most places seeing at least three quarter of an inch. However, meteorologists are concerned that a handful of places will be hit by a series of slow moving storms that would dump two inches or more of rain in a short period of time. 

That would be enough to cause ponding of water in low lying areas, and perhaps a few small areas seeing some flash flooding. 

Remember, even a small zone of flash flooding can be dangerous. If there's water on the road ahead of you, just turn around. You don't know how deep the water is, or if the road beneath the water has been washed out.

UPCOMING WEEK

As the rain comes each day, the ground gets wetter and wetter, and less able to absorb the runoff. 

Any flash flooding that develops in and around Vermont during the next week will be pretty localized.  Some counties could have real trouble, and others will get off almost scot free.

It's also pretty much impossible to know when and if any flash floods start until just before it happens or while it has already started. 

Because of the scattered nature of the heaviest storms, total rainfall for the next seven days in Vermont will range from as little as two or three inches in the very "driest" locations to well over five inches in other spots  Each day, there's a risk of two inches or more of rain in just a few hours in some towns. 

This is beginning to remind me of the late spring and early summer of 1998 in Vermont. Back then, and today, we're in the opening phases of a global El Nino weather pattern.

In 1998, just as in 2023 the spring was on the dry side.  Then in June, 1998, a series of torrential storms caused some serious flash flooding, especially in central Vermont.  Flooding was especially intense and destructive along the Mad River in Warren and Waitsfield, and the New Haven River in and near Bristol.

The 1998 Vermont flood was part of a bout of widespread severe weather and flooding in the Northeast. In the upcoming week, it'll be the similar to that. Vermont is not the only place facing a flood risk.  Most of New England and parts of the Middle Atlantic States that will get drenched, too.

I don't mean to be overly alarming.  The 1998 floods is just a gnarly example of what a worst case scenario for the upcoming week would look like.  Things probably won't get as bad as they did during that summer weekend a quarter century ago.

Still, the weather over the week needs to be watched carefully. "Everyone, but especially decision makers and residents of known poor drainage and flash flooding areas need to monitor future forecasts," meteorologists wrote in this morning's forecast discussion page from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

The extent of the heavy rain will vary day to day over the next week, with some days being real soakers and some not so bad. On some days it might be southern Vermont that gets the real blast of rain, other days in might be the north. 

The only real consistency is that the heaviest rain and the larger threats of flash flooding would come in the afternoons and evenings. That said, trouble could still come at any time of day or night, so you'll need to stay on your toes.

Video:

Images of the June, 1998 flood in and near Bristol, Vermont.  Turn the sound down a little as the background music might be a bit much. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

National Weather Service: Great Forecast, Says The Maps

 A tale of two maps. 

First one: What the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was forecasting on Friday for the just -completed snowstorm:

Next map. What actually happened. A really good forecast. My thoughts below the second map: 

You can tell by the maps what a degree or two difference can do to a forecast, though.

The forecasts were great, but somewhat less snow than predicted fell in the Northeast Kingdom and in northeastern New York.  In both places, but the Northeast Kingdom in particular, temperatures held just  a couple degrees higher than many people forecast.

The track of the storm was essentially up the Connecticut River Valley. That let in just enough warm air to keep things Saturday in most of the Northeast Kingdom rain or a rain/snow mixture. The Northeast Kingdom still got snow, but perhaps two or three inches less than forecast.

Still, people in the Northeast Kingdom shouldn't feel too bad. There was snow on the ground there before this storm hit, and they squeaked out a couple to a few inches more this weekend.

It was still snowing lightly there Sunday afternoon.  Plus, if anybody gets snow from some weak systems this coming week, it will probably include the northeastern part of Vermont. 

Snow cover through that area, and most of Vermont, is still below normal for this time of year. But at least it's no longer pathetic.