Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

Away From Vermont, Some Destructive, Sometimes Weird Weather Keeps Hitting

While we get ready to roast in a heat wave here in
New England, it is snowing in parts of the northern
Rockies and elsewhere near summits in the Pacific
Northwest. This is Willamette Pass in Oregon
around 5,000 feet above sea level on
 Friday during the summer solstice. 

There's been lots of weather news around the nation in the past week or so, with devastating flash floods, severe storms and tornadoes, and now, a widespread heat wave.  

The United States has  had more than our share of weather weirdnesses, and cases of bad weather hitting places that have already had far too much of it. 

Here's some examples of some of the weirdness that's been going on lately.  

JUNEAU SEVERE STORM

Juneau, Alaska is not a place for severe thunderstorms. It's hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean on one side, steep hills and mountains on the other. It's not a conducive landscape to encourage intense thunderstorms. 

But on Monday, Juneau residents found themselves under their first-ever severe thunderstorm warning, and that warning verified. A top wind gust of 60 mph was measured in the city's downtown.

The storm caused a cruise ship to break away from its moorings, which nearly made it collide with another cruise ship. The winds toppled trees in at least one Juneau neighborhood and destroyed a canopy next to building.  

Juneau averages only one thunderstorm every other year. Until now, all those storms amounted to little  more than a rumble or two of thunders.  

NORTHERN ROCKIES SNOW

While it will be hot nearly everywhere,  you will be able to find one little cold spot.

Apparently, the area around Glacier National Park in Montana is celebrating the summer solstice with a winter storm of all things 

A winter storm warning is in effect for high elevations of northwest Montana, including around Glacier National Park. 

The popular Going To The Sun Road could be blocked by six to as much as 14 inches of snow. Some mountain peaks around Glacier National Park could receive up to two feet of snow.

Winter weather advisories for somewhat lighter snow are in effect for the rest of the Rocky Mountains in western Montana. 

Snow was reported Friday in high mountain passes of Oregon. 

Heavy snow also struck some  high elevations of British Columbia and Alberta. 

This might seem wild for the summer solstice weekend, but this sort of thing happens every once in awhile this time of year in those cold, high Montana mountains. This bout of winter weather is a little bit more extreme than usual, though even by Montana Rocky Mountain standards. 

 INTERSTATE 40

Tennessee DOT released this photo of flooding and
mudslides that blocked Interstate 40 near the
Tennessee/North Carolina border.  This area
had been being rebuilt after extensive 
damage in Hurricane Helene back in September.

Large sections of Interstate 40 in western North Carolina and in neighboring Tennessee were destroyed in Hurricane Helene flooding last September.

The Interstate has been slowly getting rebuilt. But the major highway got another big setback Wednesday. A mud and rock slide, and flash flood blocked both lanes of Interstate 40 near the Tennessee/North Carolina border once again.  

Several vehicles got trapped in the landslide and flood, though nobody was hurt.

However, the Interstate in that region is once again closed, and might remain closed for up to two weeks. This is right in the same area that saw sections of the Interstate wiped out by Hurricane Helene.

The damage is not as extensive this time, though, 

The National Weather Service told Tennessee DOT that 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time on Wednesday. Slopes in the wake of Hurricane Helene in the region are now less stable and can easily slide or move in heavy rains. 

HURRICANE ERICK

The first couple weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet, but not so on the Pacific side.

Category 3 Hurricane Erick hit the Mexican coast early Thursday about 100 miles east of Acapulco.  It was the earliest in the season such a strong hurricane hit the western Mexico coast.

It also continued a disturbing trend seen in hurricanes over the past few years. It strengthened super rapidly. Erick's top winds offshore grew from 65 mph to 145 mph in just 21 hours.  Climate change may be allowing hurricanes like Erick to gain strength pretty instantaneously, which can take both forecasters and people where the storms hit by surprise.

Recent hurricanes like Otis that devastating Acapulco in 2023, and Beryl last year that exploded into an early season Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean , are among a fast-growing list of recent hurricanes that went from nothing burgers to monsters in a flash. 

STALLED, BEAUTIFUL TORNADO

There's been quite a few tornadoes around the United States and southern Canada this June. Including sadly, a twister that killed three people in North Dakota late Friday, 

One noteworthy and rather odd tornado  developed on June 16 near Wellfleet, Nebraska. It was  "perfect" tornado as it was visually stunning.  It made for great videos and still photos. 

See some of those videos here and here. 

Either that tornado, or a series from the same supercell thunderstorm,   lasted a long time, and moved only very slowly, traveling as little as two miles in a half hour.  

It was also remote, meaning it did not hit any homes or businesses, sparing anyone injuries or property damage. The tornadoes did damage some power lines.

Oklahoma Continues To Have An Extremely Rough Autumn. Today Will Be Third Day In Row With Tornadoes

Huge board pierced this car in this weekend's 
Oklahoma tornadoes. Twisters can fling things quite a
ways, as was the case here. Notice the lack of 
damage in the background, this board was ejected
some distance from the tornado.

Saturday night and early Sunday, Oklahoma endured a series of intensely destructive tornadoes.

Sunday and Sunday night, a new round of tornado warnings blared across the state amid clusters of severe thunderstorms and flooding downpours. 

'

An even more widespread outbreak of tornadoes and severe weather seems likely today in Oklahoma, northern Texas and western Arkansas. 

The tornadoes early Sunday focused on the southeastern part of the Oklahoma City metro area, hitting Newcastle, Moore, Valley Brook and Hurrah.  You might recognize a couple of those towns as seemingly always being hit by tornadoes, so I guess it happened again. 

This time, eleven people were taken to hospitals with tornado-related injuries. Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed.  Other storms produced damaging straight line winds and flash flooding. 

Sunday afternoon, tornado warnings blared around Oklahoma City again, as severe thunderstorms and additional flash flooding. More than four inches of rain poured down on Oklahoma City Saturday night and Sunday. 

Today, if anything looks potentially worse.  The area under the gun for severe weather is more widespread than it has been for the past two. The atmospheric at least as of this morning look favorable for a variety of hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, intense straight line winds, large hail and flash flooding.

In anticipation of the bad weather, dozens of Oklahoma schools and some colleges have canceled classes today. Oklahoma Municipal Court has also canceled sessions today. 

Already, this morning and early afternoon, there's been a couple of tornado warnings in Oklahoma, and that's ahead of the main show expected this afternoon and evening. 

Tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreaks are usually creatures of the spring and summer. Strong storm systems combined with strong daytime heating from the sun combine to create those big storms in the spring.

However, there's sometimes a smaller second season in the fall.  The sun's heating is pretty lame this time of year. But storm systems are stronger this time of year than in the summer. That strength  can overcome the weak daytime heating to produce dangerously stormy weather. 

What makes this situation unusual is that the rough weather has been sitting over or near Oklahoma for three days, if you count today. 

Usually, autumn storms that produce severe storms and tornadoes are in and out quickly. You get a  round of damaging storms on one day, and the next that storm system is hundreds of miles to the east. 

This storm will finally move on tonight and weaken as it moves east, greatly diminishing the severe storm and tornado threat 

This time is different. 

Less than 24 hours after tornadoes in Oklahoma metro area, mid-afternoon severe t-storm warnings: 

 

Long Lasting Texas Heat Now Spreading; Violent Storms On Edge Of "Heat Dome" Humidity/Rain Lingers Here

Derecho approaches Charleston, Illinois Thursday in
this web cam grab.

 Aside from the smoke from Canada choking large swaths of the United States, we now have a nasty heat wave and violent storms added to the mix. 

Heat warnings and advisories are scattered from California to Georgia.  

The Midwest is digging out from a violent derecho on Thursday and more nasty storms are on the way. 

And a tease we'll get to near the bottom of the post: We here in Vermont aren't immune from the bad weather over the next few days, but it won't be anything like the South and Midwest. 

Let's get into the heat wave first:

HEAT GROWS

Most of Texas has been broiling under a relentless, long lasting heat wave for about two weeks now.

Mercifully, the heat has avoided most of the rest of the nation.  In many parts of the United States, it's been a relatively cool June. 

That state of affairs is ending. 

The heat is expanding and is now starting to include almost the entire South from California to Georgia. And it's starting to creep north. Heat advisories have gone into effect as far north as Missouri.

Blame what is known as a heat dome. It's an area of high pressure with sinking air that prevents clouds and showers from forming. Heat domes trap hot, and often humid air beneath it, so people who live under one of these domes definitely suffer. 

The heat dome in Texas has been especially long lasting. And brutal. 

The Texas heat has been impressive. Del Rio, Texas had 10 daily record highs in a row, which is absolutely insane.  If you get three record hot days in a row, that's impressive. But 10?  Also, it has not been under 80 degrees in Del Rio since June 15. 

Already, at least 13 deaths have been attributed to the heat in Texas. But that might be an under count. 

In the dystopia that is Texas, prison inmates are dying of heat in prisons that are not air conditioned, but the cause of the deaths is often attributed by state officials as "cardiac arrest," masking the role of heat.

I agree that people who commit crimes must be punished, and prisons should not really be cushy. And what about the prison guards that have to work in those conditions?

But the Texas system is dangerous. As Texas Tribune reports:

"More than two-thirds of Texas' 100 prisons don't have air conditioning in most living areas. Every summer, as temperatures routinely soar well into the triple digits, thousands of offices and tens of thousands of prisoners are cramped inside concrete and steel buildings without ventilation, save windows broken out of desperation and fans that blow hot air. The heat has killed prisoners, likely contributed to severe staff shortages and cost taxpayers millions of dollars wrongful death and civil rights lawsuits over the last decade."

By the way, Texas lawmakers, as usual did not put any money directly toward installing air conditioning in the hot prisons, despite a $32.7 billion budget surplus, Texas Tribune says. 

Over in California, they've had a pretty cool year so far. That's changing now. Much of the Golden State is under excessive heat warnings and advisories. Temperatures are expected to reach the triple digits in the Central Valley.

So much snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountains this past winter that a lot of it is still there. Melting will become rapid during this heat wave, so creeks and rivers flowing out of the mountains could flood. Plus, people tempted to dip into these creek waters and swimming holes could be endangered by the very cold water flowing in them. 

The good news is the part of the heat dome over Texas is weakening somewhat. It will stay hot there, just not as hot as it's been.

BRUTAL STORMS

A derecho swept across a swath of the Midwest late Wednesday through much of the day Thursday. It started with a supercell with an impressive tornado in the southwest corner of Nebraska late Wednesday, then a streak of big hail and damaging winds overnight in Kansas and Nebraska, followed by a great gush of thunderstorm winds of up to 100 mph roaring through parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. 

AccuWeather radar image of the derecho in the Midwest
Thursday. When a line of storms forms a backwards "C"
like this, winds at the front of the C are especially intense.

I'm sure damage totals will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars if not more, given the huge area this storm covered. It also hit populated areas like Springfield, Peoria and Champagne, Illinois and and Indianapolis, Indiana. 

Cities suffered widespread tree damage and downed power lines that in some instances will take days to fix. In the hardest hit towns, where winds reached 100 mph, roofs flew off buildings and houses, grain bins blew away and outbuildings were shattered.

More severe storms are expected today.  This is something called the "ring of fire."  Weather disturbances ride along the northern edges of that so-called heat dome in the South.  These disturbances tap into the extreme heat and high moisture content of the air to create violent storms. 

"Ring of fire" storms are pretty common June through much of August.

Some of the same areas hit yesterday are under the gun today and tomorrow. Not many tornadoes are forecast, but many storms with destructive winds and hail are expected to blossom

UP HERE IN VERMONT

Nothing so dramatic is in the cards for Vermont, but that doesn't mean the weather will be completely benign. 

Today still actually looks fairly nice, despite the wildfire smoke that has prompted a continuation of the air quality alert.  It's still not as bad as last Sunday, but people with health problems, the elderly and very young should try to limit their activity outdoors. 

At least it won't rain for once. But it will still be a bit on the humid side.

The real humidity and the shower threat comes back tomorrow and last through much of the upcoming week. A few showers and thunderstorms might rumble through tomorrow. 

Those showers will be more widespread on Sunday, so once again, we'll have to watch for the chance of a localized instance of flash flooding or two somewhere in the state. If any flooding happens, it won't be widespread, but could cause real trouble in a town or two.

Hit and miss storms will continue through much of the upcoming week amid the persistent humidity. It won't rain all the time, but you might find yourself dodging a downpour or thunderstorm or two during your Fourth of July fun Monday through Wednesday.

There's a chance a cold front could finally diminish the humidity in about a week, but that is an uncertain proposition to say the least. 

It's possible that welcome cold front could fall apart before it ever gets here. Stay tuned. 

 

With Another Weird Tornado Outbreak Just Ended, 2023 Off To A Very Bad Twister Start

Tornado damage Monday in Norman, Oklahoma. Photo
by Ray Banner, OU Daily 

A two-day outbreak of tornadoes in the U.S. Sunday and Monday continues a fast - and destructive - preview of our annual national spring tornado season.  

Wintertime tornadoes happen virtually every year. But this winter has been much worse than usual. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has so far tallied 191 preliminary reports of U.S. tornadoes through this morning.  That number might go up, as local National Weather  Service offices investigating possible tornadoes Sunday and Monday in Oklahoma, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. 

For comparison, last year through February we only had 48 tornadoes. 

Unfortunately, we've seen eight confirmed tornado deaths so far in 2023 A ninth death will likely be confirmed soon from one of Sunday's tornadoes in Oklahoma. 

The location of some of the tornadoes has been unusual as well. Oklahoma is known for its tornadoes, but they tend to happen in the Sooner State later in the spring and early summer. On Sunday, nine tornadoes were reported in Oklahoma. The previous record high number of February tornadoes there was six. 

Some of Sunday's Oklahoma tornadoes were quite strong, too. The fatal tornado near Cheyenne, Oklahoma swept a house entirely off its foundation and shredded it into small debris. Another tornado in Norman, Oklahoma injured 12 people and caused extensive damage in parts of the city. 

In a still from a video, debris flies
in front of a motorist in McCordsville,
Indiana from a possible tornado on
Monday. Photo via Twitter from 
Todd Klaassen

Earlier this month, on February, 21, a tornado struck in New Jersey.  It was only the third February tornado on record in that state. It was also the strongest winter tornado to hit New Jersey. 

On Monday, tornadoes were reported as far north as places west of Chicago.  At least one tornado from Monday was confirmed by investigators in Ohio on Tuesday,   making it the second time that state has seen a tornado this February. 

It's interesting that Oklahoma has been so busy with tornadoes this winter. They still see a lot of tornadoes in the spring and early summer, but over the past decades, the trend has been for somewhat fewer tornadoes in the Sooner State and more further east, along and east of the Mississippi River. 

The trouble isn't finished yet.  A potentially significant tornado outbreak appears as if could easily develop in the Gulf Coast states Thursday and Friday. 

It's impossible to tell whether the real tornado season will turn out to be horrible. The number of tornadoes in the U.S. usually begins to ramp up in March, continue to increase in April, then peak in May and early June. 

 I haven't seen a strong trend regarding what happens after a lot of January and February tornadoes. Some tornadic springs follow busy tornado winters. Others do not. It's really not possible to tell for sure in advance what will happen during the business spring severe weather season.  

Burlington Freezes, And Vermont/New England About To Get Very Wet

Storminess over the next seven days will unleash a lot of
rain across much of the nation. The orange areas on
the West Coast and New England can expect more 
than six inches of rain over the next week. 

 Burlington, Vermont will not be breaking its latest freeze record after all.

It got down to 32 degrees at the National Weather Service observing site at the airport in South Burlington at 7 a.m. this morning. So the record for the latest first freeze of the season stands at November 1, 1920.  

Some big asterisks with this record, though. In 1920, temperature readings were taken closer to Lake Champlain than they are now.  It's usually a bit balmier in the morning this time of year near the lake because of the lingering warmth in the lake water.

It's possible - I would say likely - that there was an earlier freeze in 1920 at the site of the future airport than on November 1 that year. It was 33 degrees on October 13 and 30 in the 1920 data, so it was probably 32 or lower on October 13, 1920 at the South Burlington site where temperatures are now recorded. 

For this week, we're going to go from frosty to wet.  Very wet, probably in southern Vermont. Though northern Vermont will also get in on some rain action. 

Two major storms will affect New England, one centered tomorrow and Tuesday, the other hitting around the weekend.

After this morning's frost melts off, it will actually be a pretty nice day in Vermont. There will be a fair amount of sunshine, and temperatures will pop up into the seasonable 50s by afternoon.

As I said yesterday, there will be changes to this week's forecast due to a complicated weather pattern, and that iffiness seems to be bearing out, at least to some extent. 

Rain will move into Vermont late tonight and tomorrow morning with an initial push of moisture. Rainfall at this point looks like it might become for sprinkly and drizzly during the afternoon.  But it will still be a raw, dark, icky Monday. Temperatures wills stay in the 40s.

The best guess is that about a half inch of rain will fall on most of us with Monday's wave of wet.

It now looks like a pretty powerful nor'easter will get going just off the New England coast Tuesday.  That will concentrate the rain in southern New England and southern Vermont, though all of the Green Mountain State should have a wet Tuesday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the nor'easter will bring about a half inch of rain to the Northeast Kingdom to 1.5 inches in southern Vermont. 

It hasn't been super wet lately, so this rain shouldn't lead to any real flooding in Vermont. 

Southern and eastern New England will probably have to contend with some flooding, coastal erosion and gusty, possibly damaging winds with this system on Tuesday.

We get a break in the action midweek before the next storm arrives for the weekend. There's plenty of questions as to exactly where that one will go and how strong it will be. But there's still potential for strong winds and heavy rain with it. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out. 

TROUBLESOME NATIONAL WEATHER

What might well become the strongest storm on record off the Pacific Northwest coast is looming today and tonight. The core of the storm won't come ashore, so there won't be a devastating wind storm like what happened during a similarly strong, but closer and windier storm in 1962.

However, this storm continues to drive at atmospheric river of water into northern California, so they're still bracing for flooding and debris flows, especially near where there were recent big wildfires. Evacuations are ongoing. 

Meanwhile, the storm that will eventually develop into the New England nor'easter on Tuesday is today unleashing the threat of tornadoes in and around Missouri, and a substantial risk of flash flooding in parts of Illinois and Indiana.