Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope.