Hurricane Ernesto Ensures Start Of Hurricane Season Fairly Busy, But What's Next?

Hurricane Ernesto today as it began its departure
from Bermuda. 

Hurricane season so far is a bit quieter than the gangbuster predictions we saw earlier this year.

But it's still a busy one, especially since we've already had a few strong ones and it's only mid-August. and there's also plenty of time for the season to really, really ramp up. 

The current storm is Hurricane Ernesto, out in the Atlantic Ocean. 

Ernesto made landfall on west side of Bermuda at around 4:30 a.m. Saturday with top winds of about 85 mph.

It's a slow mover, so Bermuda was hit by hurricane force winds from Friday night well into today. A third of the island's electricity was out.  Bermuda is a rather wealthy nation with sturdy buildings, so not much structural damage is anticipated. 

Bermuda is often affected by hurricanes, but since it's such a small target, actual landfalls are relatively rare. It was reportedly the 12th landfalling hurricane on Bermuda since 1850. Of course, scores of other hurricanes whose eyes never touched the island still managed to unleash hurricane force winds there. 

Ernesto is something like 1,000 miles off the East Coast of the United States, but its effects are still being felt. 

In Rodanthe, on North Carolina's Outer Banks, an oceanfront house collapsed Friday evening into the Atlantic Ocean as swells and high tides from Ernesto hit the East Coast.

Seven houses in Rodanthe have collapsed into the ocean in the past four years due at least in part to sea level rise, climate change and storms. Two of the houses collapsed in May and were on the same block as the one that went Friday. 

According to The Island Free Press:

"Chicamacomico Fire and Rescue posted video of the house located at 23214 East Corbina Drive floating into the breakers Friday evening.

Dare County property records show the 1,428 square foot residence was built in 1973, and owned by a couple from Hershey, Pennsylvania. The total tax value of the property and structure was $356,400.

The house, which had been an active vacation rental until earlier this summer, was unoccupied at the time of the collapse. No injuries were reported."

Reports indicate prior storms earlier this summer weakened the house and its supports, making the building unsafe. That's why it was unoccupied on what was otherwise a lovely Cape Hatteras summer Friday evening. 

Elsewhere on the East Coast, beachgoers  from Atlantic Canada to Florida are advised to be wary of rip currents and high surf emanating from Ernesto.

This year was forecast to be a supercharged hurricane season.  There hasn't been a lot of storms at any given time so far. 

But this hurricane season has so far been somewhat busier than it looks.

One measure of hurricane activity is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE. It's a measurement that incorporates storm intensity and duration. 

Because Beryl, Debby and now Ernesto were powerful and lasted quite awhile, the ACE count so far this year is way above normal for this point in August. 

The ACE count for the Atlantic hurricane season as of August 15 is a bit under 50, compared to the normal of around 1

The fifth tropical storm of the year, the one that begins with "E" normally on average forms on August 22, so Ernesto was a little early.

The "F" storm, which will be Francine this year, on average forms on August 29. So we'll wait and see whether Francine forms by then or not.  

We're waiting and seeing because at the moment, after Ernesto, the folks at the National Hurricane doesn't see anything on the radar forming over the next five days at least. There's still a lot of dry air and some Saharan dust circulating over the tropical Atlantic, which is suppressing tropical storms for now. 

Even though forecasts for tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic look fairly minimal in the short term, it could really start popping at the end of this month and in September. By then, dry air is forecast to start moistening up. Ocean temperatures where hurricanes tend to develop are at near record highs. That's jet fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes.

Plus wind shear, which tends to rip apart wannabe tropical storms before they really can get going, typically declines over the tropical Atlantic in late August and September. 

No guarantees, but we might not have escaped a wild season just yet. Hell, it's been difficult to begin with. Hurricane Beryl caused damage from the Windward Islands to Texas to Atlantic Canada, including here in Vermont. 

Hurricane Debby trashed parts of Florida before causing serious flooding and wind damage in many parts of the eastern U.S. Debby is why we had such a nasty wind storm in Vermont last Friday.

Ernesto, before harassing Bermuda, caused damage in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Whether the rest of the season is busy or not, where hurricanes go is even more important than how many.  If big ones keep plowing into land, this could be a super expensive season. If we're fortunately and they keep curving out to sea, then we've obviously dodged a bunch of bullets. 

Atmospheric Traffic Jam To Keep Vermont Occasionally Showery, Occasionally Smoky

On a quiet morning today in St. Albans, a rabbit
wonders if he should chomp on the flowers on either
side of him. 

 Mid August is peak season for summer doldrums in the atmosphere.

Most weather systems are in no hurry to get anywhere. Aside from hurricanes, almost all of these systems are relatively weak. And they sort of linger around instead of zipping right along.  

The classic August dog days for sure. 

In these cases, which happen almost every August, you end up with fairly long spells of vaguely unsettled, often kind of humid, warm but not super hot weather with an almost constant threat of a few hit or miss showers or storms. 

Which is our fate for the next several days. 

As an added bonus this year,  smoke from western and Canadian forest fires keeps recirculating in this lazy mix of atmospheric meandering. So we get some of that, too.

The upper level low pressure that gave us scattered showers and garden variety storms Sunday and Monday is still not far to our east. The north flow behind it is sucking occasional bursts of smoke down from Canada.

We saw somewhat smoky skies on an otherwise nice Tuesday. It looks kind of hazy again this morning, and a thicker batch of smoke looks like it's on its way from the north for Thursday. Most of the smoke seems to be aloft, so the air quality shouldn't get too awful. 

But the blue skies between showers will not be all that blue. 

The system to the east will also send weak weather disturbances running north to south today and tomorrow, so there's the ever present risk of a shower.  Today, the vast majority of us will stay dry. But a few lucky devils could get a fair amount of rain in some isolated downpours. That's because the showers are in no hurry to move in this blah weather pattern. 

Showers and some storms will be a bit more widespread Thursday, but again, not everyone gets wet. Despite the very lame northerly flow, humidity is starting to creep up. It won't be extreme, but dew points in the 60s starting today and lasting into the weekend don't make for refreshing air.

THE NEXT SLOTH

That little thing to our northeast will gradually move off, only to be replaced by another upper level storm system that will set up shop in over the Great Lakes starting Friday and going into early next week. 

This thing will only very slowly move east. The traffic jam will be made worse by soon-to-be Hurricane Ernesto.

It will become a powerful hurricane as it moves north in the Atlantic Ocean over the next several days far off the East Coast.

Ernesto will have no direct effects on us here in Vermont. But Ernesto will help maintain the atmospheric traffic jam.

As a result,  that Great Lakes disturbance acting like a sloth, moving ever so slowly across the Great Lakes  and Northeast through the early part or middle of next week. Kind of like an annoying lost, whiny tourist. 

Bottom line: A constant risk of shower and storms for several days in a row. 

It won't rain all the time, and I'm not especially worried about a lot of flooding, at least so far. Some of the downpours with this might end up being pretty heavy. And of course won't be in a hurry to move much. So that could cause some local problems here and there. Especially Sunday and Monday, when this thing should peak. 

Eventually, this sluggish pattern will shift gears into autumn. Sometime, probably in September, you'll really see weather systems step up the pace, and things will get much more changeable.

The Other Side Of Summer: Peak Of The Season Is Passed, But Not Autumn Yet!

The end of a brief downpour Sunday evening over
St. Albans, Vermont yielded this lovely sunset. 
Some people in Franklin County and the northern
Lake Champlain islands with a view to the east
were also treated to a spectacular, giant rainbow.

 It looks like we ended what I can "peak summer" on August 5.  That's when a long, long stretch of heat and humidity finally broke. 

Now, we're on what I call the other side of summer, the beginning of a long slide toward autumn. We can still get big heat waves. We can still endure insufferable humidity any time in the next few weeks. 

But at least slightly cooler air should keep making intrusions. It's a reminder that those store back to school sales, which started the day after school let out in June, should properly be beginning right about now. 

The weather here in Vermont since August 5 has varied from warm but not hot, to just kind of comfortable. We should expect the same stuff for at least a week.  Though humidity might make a comeback for awhile beginning toward the weekend. 

Right now, there's a chilly pool of air high overhead. The snow level over Vermont was expected to get as low as 7,500 feet above sea level last night and part of today, so it's that cold way up there. If we had tall mountains like out West, we'd have snow capped peaks this morning. 

The contrast between the relative warmth down here and the cold air up there creates instability. Which means quite a few scattered showers. That explains the very changeable weather we had Sunday. 

NEW YORK TORNADO?

As a side note, New York State just can't catch a break. I guess the Empire State is a new Tornado Alley.

This kind of weather pattern, the cold air aloft and the kinda warmish air down here, usually sets off a bunch of showers and garden-variety thunderstorms. Nothing severe or scary.

That's just what happened yesterday. Everybody in the region saw those mild-mannered showers and friendly little thunderstorms.

Except northeast of Utica, New York. One weird thunderstorm last evening got intense for some reason and started spinning, prompting a tornado warning in that region. I don't know whether a tornado actually touched down. Luckily, the storm weakened quite a bit not long after, ending the threat. That thunderstorm eventually entered southwestern Vermont as a run of the mill brief, harmless downpour. 

New York State has already had 27 tornadoes this year, shattering a previous record for most tornadoes in a year. Just on Friday, the 27th New York tornado of 2024 was confirmed. It was a weak EF-0 twister was confirmed along the New York State Thruway near New Paltz, in the lower Hudson Valley on Friday.

FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, we have those garden variety showers and storms to dodge again today. Since it's so cold aloft, don't be surprised to see a bit of pea-sized hail mixed in if you're caught in a somewhat stronger storm.  

The air aloft will tend to warm up a bit starting tomorrow, so showers should be much fewer and further between. For the rest of the week, at least through Friday, it's going to be a battle between high pressure trying to scoot in for fair weather and upper level cool air and low pressure trying to keep the showers going. 

Best guess is Wednesday will be the nicest day, while we might end up dodging showers again Thursday. 

Some sort of new storm system looks like it wants to come in next weekend, but it's unclear how that will play out. We'll probably end up with somewhat higher humidity and more showers. I have no idea yet if those showers will be heavy and plentiful, or just nuisance sprinkles. 

HURRICANE ERNESTO?

For starters, just to make you relax, this doesn't look like the following will be Vermont's problem. 

A disturbance is organizing in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, and it's widely forecasted to eventually become Hurricane Ernesto.

It's a threat to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.  It'll be moving westward at first. However, toward Wednesday or Thursday, what will be Ernesto will take a hard right turn, and head northward over the open Atlantic far, far to the east of the United States. It looks like it could become quite a powerful hurricane out there, though.