Winter Just Doesn't Want To Quit In Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Our house in St. Albans, Vermont is awash in snow, and 
the gardens out front won't be blooming anytime 
soon judging from this scene taken this morning. 

Unlike many recent winters, it's the end of February and we do not yet have any real signs of spring here in Vermont or the rest of the Northeast. 

Even when an extended forecast offers a hint of warm weather a week or two out, that always seems to be snatched away at the last minute and it stays cold. 

Here in Vermont it snowed again this morning. Not much, just enough to be annoying. We has 0.4 inches here in St. Albans as of 8 a.m.  

Temperatures across Vermont were mostly in the teens as of 8 a.m. but the warm front causing this morning's snow should blow through, bringing many valleys to readings a little above freezing this afternoon. 

That "warmth" won't last long.

A cold front is coming toward us late this afternoon. If this were summer, I'd be yelling about the risk of severe thunderstorms. But it's winter, so the cold front will crank out a bunch of snow showers and a few snow squalls here and there. Those would be the winter substitute for strong thunderstorms.

We won't get much snow this evening, with  most of us getting another inch or less. But the rapidly changing weather and falling temperatures around those expected snow squalls mean you might see some unpleasant, icy surprises on the roads on the way home late this afternoon and evening. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

The cold front is a little stronger than we thought it would be (of course!) so they've subtracted a few degrees from previous forecasts. It'll only get into the 20s to around 30 tomorrow and it''ll be back down in the single numbers tomorrow night. 

After a chilly start, Friday will be nice enough in the afternoon with sunshine and temperatures in the 30s, with some upper 20s in high elevations and some corners of the Northeast Kingdom.

By the way, the blizzard zone near New York and far southern New England are getting an unwanted burst of a couple inches of snow this morning. They also might get nicked by a weak storm Thursday night, and possibly another few inches of snow next Monday.

I'll have an update on the areas hit by the blizzard in a post later today.

ARCTIC FRONT

It still looks like we have one warmish day, or maybe part of a warmish part of a day when we get to Saturday. By then, another cold front will be approaching us. Ahead of that front, we'll get a brief squirt of mild air that might get us into the 40s.

However, some of the models are speeding up an approaching Arctic cold front, so I wonder whether it will stay mild all day in the north. It's possible the mild air could get pushed out before the day is over on Saturday. We shall see!

What's definite, though, is behind this front is really cold air. March will start with frigid January weather. Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees below normal. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the teens, with maybe a couple low 20s south. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday nights will get below zero again, like we haven't had enough of that already. 

It'll warm back up a little toward the middle of next week. Long range forecasts are suggesting a bonafide thaw once we get a week into March. I'm not trusting that forecast yet, since so many hints of warmth in extended forecasts disappeared as forecasts were updated.

Meanwhile, enjoyVermont's forever winter.  

Hot Times Coming Back To Vermont But It Probably Won't Last All That Long

The gardens around my shed and elsewhere on my
St. Albans, Vermont property are starting to take
on that ragged, late summer look as we head 
toward August. After more heat and humidity coming
in the next few days, another cool spell 
looks like it wants to welcome us into August.

 I hope you enjoyed another cool, crisp Vermont morning today, because it's back to the heat and humidity, for awhile, anyway. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

Today will still be reasonable, and actually perfect for summertime outdoor fun. The humidity will start to increase, but it really won't be all that bad. 

 So taking a hike or other outdoor activity won't necessarily kill you. But grab the sunscreen and the water to drink if you do go out to conquer Camels Hump or something like that. 

Temperatures under sunshine will get into the low or even mid 80s in many places, so it's a great beach day. 

Also, since winds will be light, no need to worry about dangerous conditions on the lakes. Though winds might be so light that sailboats might not work perfectly. But all in all, enjoy today. 

Because you won't necessarily like tomorrow. 

The humidity will surge in tonight. You'll notice it getting stuffy. And we've got at least one more 90 degree, oppressive day to get through. The record high tomorrow in Burlington is 95 degrees. We could get close to that, but chances are we'll just miss. 

In Montpelier, the record high of 89 tomorrow is in jeopardy. But St. Johnsbury's record high tomorrow of 95 looks safe.

On hot, humid days, we often have thunderstorms.  Not this time, though. The chances of storms Thursday are very, very low, due to lots of sinking air with high pressure nearby. I suppose one or two could briefly get going over the mountains, but those will be few and far between.

There might be some activity near the Canadian border in the evening. There's also a chance that people in northern Vermont might, maybe get a light show of potential heat lightning Thursday night from storms in Quebec. 

As a reminder, heat lightning is just regular lightning that's too far away for us to hear the thunder. 

FRIDAY

Friday could be a stormy day for some of us. A cold front will be slowly pressing down from Quebec. It all depends on the timing to determine how things go.

Anytime you get a cold front coming in during the day during hot, humid weather, you risk severe thunderstorms. 

If the cold front is a quickie, coming through earlier in the day,  northern Vermont might escape severe weather as the front will have passed. The slightly cooler more stable air behind the front would squash any wannabe thunderstorms. But northern areas would still get some rain out of the deal. 

 In this quicker case, southern Vermont would be under the gun for scattered severe weather, as storms will have a chance to build in the heat before the cold front finally makes its way to southern parts of the state in the afternoon,

If the front is slower, northern and central Vermont gets the storms. Southern Vermont would just be hot and humid again, as the storms wouldn't get there until evening, when they would be losing some of their punch. 

I hope we'll have a better bead on the front's timing by tomorrow, and whether there might be some strong storms and where. 

 FRIDAY-TUESDAY

There's not a lot of cooler air behind Friday's front, so summer weather should continue for awhile. Generally speaking, it will be warm, with highs in the 80s Saturday through Tuesday. Humidity will be moderately high. A disturbance could kick off a few showers and storms on Sunday, we'll see about that. 

On Tuesday, a stronger cold front will be approaching with its storms and rain.

And then....

AUTUMN RETURNS?

NOAA's outlook for early August has a strong signal
or leaning toward odds of cooler than average 
temperatures for at least few days 

There's a strong signal that next week's cold front - coming at us as July closes and August begins - could be another summer doozy, introducing a cool spell even chillier than the one we just had .

So much for the dog days of August. 

The forecast I've been mentioning stays the same. The heat dome in the middle and eastern part of the nation will migrate westward, allowing for a northwest flow to hit the northeastern United States. 

This looks like it will be an expansive break from summer heat, encompassing most of the Great Lakes area, Northeast and Middle Atlantic States.

It's a little soon to figure out how cool it will get, and how long the lower temperatures will last. But this could be a slightly nippier - and maybe longer lasting spell of uncharacteristically fresh summer weather. 

Early guesses point to about at least a good four days of cool weather. It's a long range forecast, so no promises. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. 

There's also still time for more hot, humid weather in mid-August and beyond, though. Don't expect summer to end next week. It'll probably be just a pause. 

Vermont Weather This Week: Springtime Arrives, But With A Big Interruption

A couple inches of new snow from overnight in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning should quickly
start to melt today as temperatures rise into the 40s

If you've been waiting for spring, this will definitely be your week. 

But being Vermont, it's not like it's all going to be balmy breezes and sunshine and rainbows and bird song all the time. But you'll see your share of that, too. 

There's always interruptions to springtime here. If you're not used to that by now, I don't know what to tell you. 

Many of us awoke this morning to a fresh coating of snow, thanks to a quick moving disturbance that zipped through this morning.

 Some places got a fair amount of snow. I measured 2.0 inches here in St. Albans, Vermont. Stowe reported 3.5 inches as of 1 a.m. and it was still coming down at a good clip at that hour. Calais, Vermont reported 3.8 inches of new snow. 

I'm sure we'll see a couple five inch reports from some of the higher elevations. 

TODAY

That snow is pretty much over. And if you're in the maple sugar industry, get ready for another sap run! 

Temperatures before dawn in the Champlain Valley were already starting to sneak to above freezing levels, so last night's snow should start to melt fast. Sunshine should break out later this morning or by afternoon and we'll see temperatures up into the low and mid 40s  for many areas of the state. There could be some readings near 50 degrees in warmer southern Vermont valleys. 

That's nothing weird for mid-March, but it's still welcome, considering also the wind will be fairly light. The sun angle is similar to the way it was in late September, too. It will actually feel a little warmer than it actually will be.  

More or less clear skies and light winds tonight will drop us all below freezing tonight, which is - again - a good thing if you're in the maple industry. 

TUESDAY

It wasn't very warm in St. Albans late Sunday afternoon 
with temperatures only in the mid-30s, but the sky sill
managed to have a sort of springlike look to it. 
The moon is visible as the white speck in the middle 
of that patch of blue sky. 

We're getting a quick squirt of warm air Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The broader valleys will get well into the 50s   

Maybe even low 60s in banana belt low elevation towns in southern Vermont like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield.  This will be the mildest air we've seen all year so far. Again, those of you in the maple industry better prepare for a busy, busy day.  

Then there's that cold front. There's always a cold front. It's Vermont, after all. This front means business, not in terms of any precipitation, but what it's going to do to our temperatures. 

 It might trigger some late Tuesday afternoon showers central and northern Vermont, and then...

WEDNESDAY

After just a few scattered snow showers with the front overnight Tuesday, we'll be in some pretty chilly air. We'll start Wednesday in the teens, and everybody except the warmest southern Vermont valleys should stay below freezing all days.  That's a good ten degrees colder than average. 

But at least the sun will be out at least and winds will be light, so it won't be awful. Plus the cold air will be out of here in a jiffy

THURSDAY

A warm front should come through early, perhaps throwing down a handful of snowflakes or rain drops early in the day. It'll be the start of a huge warm up.  Though highs Thursday will only be in the seasonable low 40s

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

 A new, massive spring storm will gather forces and blast through the central Plains this weekend. Typical of these storms, it will spread misery through vast parts of the nation.  We'll see a blizzard to the northwest of the storm; tornadoes and severe thunderstorms to the south; wildfires and dust storms again in New Mexico and Texas, and lots of wind from the Rockies to the East Coast.

As this storm forms, it will pull huge amounts of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern half of the United States. (You can call it Gulf of America if you want, but that's not what it is, despite the demands of our Dear Leader).

For us, Friday and this weekend promises to bring us some true spring weather. We could get into the low 60s in some parts of Vermont maybe Friday, but more likely Saturday and Sunday. If this pans out, it will be the hottest weather the Green Mountain State has seen since early November, 2024. 

If any sun manages to linger into Sunday, it could actually hit 70 degrees in a couple spots that day. 

We will have to watch for the possibility of flooding with this early season hot spell.   The warm air coming in is humid, as it's coming from the Gulf.  The snow will be melting rapidly anyway, and humid air melts snow faster than dry air. 

Also, the massive storm will probably drag a wet cold front through Vermont sometimes on Sunday or Sunday night. We don't know how much rain will fall with it, but it could come down hard for a time.   If this forecast pans out, then by Monday, virtually all of the snow below 1,000 feet in elevation will be gone.  A good chunk of mountain snow will have run off into melt water, too. 

That's an awful lot of snow to get rid of in a short period of time. And an awful lot of run off, too.  We'll have to watch carefully as this could well result in a flood. 

It's way, way too soon for specifics. I would say at least minor flooding is going to happen. But we'll have to wait and see how widespread that will get, and how serious the flooding might be. 

As wonderful as it will feel to have those days of springtime warmth, it could prove to be too much, too soon.  

Long Dry Spell Set To Begin In Vermont/Most Of Northeast

Dark rain clouds approach St. Albans Bay, Vermont on
Saturday, Sept. 7. The resulting downpours will have been
the last substantial rain we'll get for possibly two
weeks or more. 

 After what has been a rather wet year, especially the summer, it turns out September is looking like it will be quite a dry month here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast. 

Dry, despite the burst of drenching rain we had Saturday. 

The overall pattern features a strong ridge of high pressure over the Northeast and southeast Canada, perhaps to near the end of the month, according so some forecasts.

If that holds, the next couple of weeks will feature mostly warmer than  normal temperatures and especially less rainy than usual. Perhaps much less rain than we usually see. 

Some Final Showers

Before we get there, one last disturbance associated with the cool shot we just experienced will come through today. Unlike yesterday, when it was cold enough for rime ice and snow flurries atop Whiteface Mountain in New York, it will be warmer, so it won't seem so October-like under those showers. 

Like yesterday, though, the scattered showers this afternoon and early evening should be light. They'll amount to a quarter inch at most, but most of us should see something like a tenth of an inch of rain, if that. 

Warm, Dry Week, No "Francine" Here

After today, the high pressure takes over big time, ensuring dry weather the rest of the week and a waring trend. By the second half of the week, some of us will be back up in the low 80s again. 

Meanwhile, after a long break in the Atlantic Ocean is finally once again beginning to bubble with tropical troubles.  

The most immediate problems is a big disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that will probably become Tropical Storm Francine later today. 

A field of golden rods in Georgia, Vermont glows in brief
sunshine Sunday. Golden rods - and everything else in 
Vermont - will enjoy lots of sun most days for 
the next couple weeks. 

Wannabe Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves north and northeastward through the western Gulf of Mexico this week. 

It'll probably smack into the Louisiana coast Wednesday or Thursday. People will need to be on their toes in the that neck of the woods, because wannabe Francine could strengthen pretty fast and catch people off guard. 

Sometimes, the remains of former Gulf Coast hurricanes end up in New England as pretty good rain makers, but it doesn't look like that will be the case this time. At least so far. 

While I suppose it's possible some moisture from what will be a former hurricane could make it this way, chances look strong that our strong high pressure will deflect most or all of that wetness away from us. 

Beyond This Week

Forecasts always get dicier the further out in the future you try to predict, so what you'll read next is so not cast in stone. 

But here goes: 

At times the center of the high pressure in higher layers of the atmosphere might be a little to our west. That could invite a back door cold front or two to come our way. 

They're called back door because they come at us from the east and northeast instead of the usual west or northwest.

These fronts usually tend to be dry, and cause only clouds or just very light showers.  One such front might come through this coming Sunday or Monday. If it does, it might  temper the warmth some over Vermont, but the coldest air with these would probably hit Atlantic Canada or possibly Maine. 

I'll be surprised if that front gives any more than a trace to a few hundreds of an inch of rain 

Beyond that, those long range forecasts are pretty consistent with keeping the mostly high pressure over us to possibly near the final week of September.

I'm not worried about this dry weather getting into a drought. There's plenty of moisture in the ground given the summer we've had.  In the autumn, things don't dry out as quickly as they do amid the strong sun in the height of summer. 

Who knows? This long dry spell, as pleasant as it will be, might also actually protect us. If some sort of former tropical system comes our way in the final days of September or in October, the rain would fall on dry soil and with rivers running low.  That would make it harder for Vermont to endure another desperately unwanted flood. 

  

Quick Sunday Morning Vermont Update: No Rain For Once!

In case you need a break from flood destruction pics,
let's do a peaceful garden scene shown Saturday
evening in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 As we often do, we take Sunday morning to look at Vermont's upcoming weather week.

Let's just hope it's not as, um.... exciting as last week. No more pain, no more worry, no more destruction is the goal here. 

Whatever happens, it looks like we will continue to have some weather challenges through the week.  But there's a light at the end of the tunnel that is not an oncoming train.   

First, a recap of yesterday and last night: 

Yesterday's scattered thunderstorms luckily did not cause too much trouble. The most intense one was in Middlebury, where the underpass on Seymour Street was badly flooded. A car got stuck in the flood, but the occupants escaped safely.

Today, we don't have any little disturbances to trigger showers or storms. There might be an isolated brief storm here or there. But if we do see any, they should be very few and far between. I was surprised to see a tiny, lonely little downpour early this morning in far northern New York, halfway between Plattsburgh and Massena. 

Weird things like that happen in the summer, I guess. 

The hot weather rolls on. Lebanon, New Hampshire, just over the border from White River Junction, managed their eight consecutive 90 degree day Saturday, despite a late afternoon thundershower that arrived to cool things down a bit. 

TODAY

Today, Lebanon they should break their record for most consecutive 90 degree days, as they'll probably make it to 90 for the ninth day in a row. 

Over in Burlington, they might score their tenth 90 of the year today. If not, there's a decent chance it could make it to 90 tomorrow and/or Tuesday. Most of us will be in the 80s.  It will be kind of humid, too, so watch it.  Flood cleanup continues, and I still worry about people overheating. 

Also, you might remember awhile back on July 6  how happy I was with the clean air this summer, compared to the smoky summers in recent years.

As expected, those days are over, as more and more fires break out in the West and in Canada. We'll see wildfire smoke aloft today which will make the air look hazy. Luckily, there won't be too much near the surface, so no air pollution alerts.  

The humidity briefly diminished slightly overnight, giving us in the Champlain Valley the "coldest" night since July 3. Burlington bottomed out at 66 degrees, which is still a little warmer and stickier than average.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Another hot one. Humid too. And probably hazy. On and on it goes.

In addition to the heat, we'll have to watch thunderstorms again, starting tomorrow. Monday's storms will be  pretty hit and miss and scattered, like they were Saturday. Still, there might be locally heavy downpours. 

Tuesday looks to be a somewhat rough day. That's when the heat and humidity will peak. And we'll have a decent chance of more storms. It's beginning to look like some of those storms could be strong. And a few could dump enough torrents to cause a little more local flash flooding, as if we needed it. 

National Weather Service meteorologists think the forward motion of the storms will be pretty quick, which is great because it won't pour over one spot for that long. That would minimize flooding risk.

On the other hand, there's a risk that some of Tuesday's storms will "train" again. Those awful boxcars going along the railroad tracks one after the other to dump inches of rain in a narrow band. That's not definite, but something we'll need to watch. 

WEDNESDAY

A wild card.  It still looks like we have our first solid cold front in at least two weeks coming our way.  If it comes through early, we just get some morning showers, and then the air gets more and more refreshing as the day goes by.

If the cold front comes through in the afternoon or evening, then it's one more muggy day with the risk of some strong storms.  We'll wait for updated forecasts.

END OF WEEK

Low humidity! Cooler temperatures. Sunshine! That's the way it's still sort of looking. But I'm still hoping against hope nothing screws up that forecast.  We might have some clouds and light showers Thursday, especially north, but it should be noticeably cooler.

This coolish spell looks brief, but it still looks like it might be comfortable heading into the beginning of next week, with highs in the 75-82 range and lows down in the 50s to around 60 so not bad.

The only iffy piece of this is the question of whether the cold front can push far enough south and east to get out of our hair and not leave rain, clouds and humidity near by. Right now, chances seem to favor sunshine and comfortable temperatures though.  

Eastern U.S. Seems To Be Latest Severe Weather Target, Vermont Catching A Break

The weather pattern favors occasional bouts of severe
thunderstorms in the Northeast over the next week or 
more. However, Vermont will be on the sidelines
of today's outbreak, and also possibly again
with new storms over the weekend. 

 As we all know, there's been a ton of severe weather, tornadoes and flooding hitting the U.S. repeatedly since April.  

The storm train continues, and it seems the eastern United States is most under the gun at the moment.   On Sunday, we had those tornado watches, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding in the Northeast, including a confirmed tornado in Dublin, New Hampshire. 

The northern tier of the United States is now under a fast jet stream, at least by summer standards, and that means lots of opportunities for severe weather. 

The seemingly ever-present heat dome in the south and Midwest keeps trying to send hot air up into the Northeast, but the cold fronts keep cutting it off at the pass. Especially the further north you go.

The cold fronts, encountering those attempts at hot, humid air, create the ingredients for severe weather. That's what happened Sunday.

Although Vermont got hit over the weekend, we do seem to be catching a break this week. Severe thunderstorms are in the cards today for a broad area extending from Kentucky and Ohio to near New York City.

Strong straight line winds and local flash floods will be the end result. Far southern Vermont might catch an isolated strong storm, but in general, Vermont will sit this one out. 

The Green Mountain State did manage to get some showers overnight and this morning. More showers are due tonight. But I don't see anything scary in this forecast. 

The next wave of potentially severe weather comes to the East Saturday and Sunday. It's still too early to know the extent and exact location of any severe storms this weekend, but it looks inevitable somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.

That also means it's too soon to tell if Vermont will participate in this, but early betting suggests we might once again avoid the worst of it. 

This regime of storm threats once every two or three days is actually fairly common in the summer.  It usually takes some activity from the jet stream to help encourage stormy weather. 

The jet stream usually retreats to southern Canada in the summer, but the Northeast is sometimes close enough to the jet stream to have some strong thunderstorms spin off. Especially if heat and humidity lurks just to the south to add fuel, as is going on now. 

As we head into July, who knows, but best early guesses is this up and down temperature yoyo between refreshing days and muggy ones will continue, and those storm risks will probably come through with every transition. 

Some Changes To Roller Coaster, Sometimes Wintry Vermont Week Forecast

That looks like perlite in my St. Albans, Vermont perennial
gardens, this morning, you know, the white pellets
that you see in potting mix. But it's snow pellets that
fell when a cold front passed through overnight. 
Wintry periods are in the forecast this week. 

 Right on schedule, the second of three "bowling ball" shots of cold spring air rolled into Vermont around midnight. It was accompanied by a whoosh of wind, gusting to 40 mph or so, and a few showers of graupel.  

(Graupel is sort of a combination snow and glorified small hail).

Skies cleared behind the front super fast, and it was clear by the time we woke up this morning. It's cold for the season this morning, but not wildly so. It's around 30 to 32, with mid 20s once you get up to 1,000 feet above sea level or so

FIRE RISK TODAY?

The air arriving today is super dry.  The humidity this afternoon will be in the 20 to 25 percent range, which is very low. The sun will be out and winds will gust to at least 25 mph from the northwest.

This is a recipe for fire weather. As noted in a post last week, these bursts of low humidity and wind dry out things super fast. That dead brush from last year can easily catch fire and the winds would spread it quickly. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has all of Vermont in a high fire danger today.

So: No burning your brush pile, no flicking your cigarette butts out your car window and no playing with fire in your backyard today, please. 

It'll also be cool for the season with highs in the 40s to around 50 in the warmer valleys. Another freeze comes tonight.

TUESDAY

Much warmer ahead of our next bowling ball of cold air. Clouds will increase slowly during the day. Winds will turn gusty from the south. I think there will be another relatively high fire risk during the day. Humidity will be a little higher than today, but those gusty south winds would spread any fire that does start pretty effectively. 

Spring will return by afternoon - briefly - as we get into the 60s.

WEDNESDAY WINTER

We'll start off rainy on Wednesday but cold front - another bowling ball of chilly air - will blast in during the afternoon. It's going to be a crappy Wednesday afternoon to say the least. As temperatures crash downward through the 40s and into the 30s, rain will change to snow. 

The only good news is that the American computer model that I mentioned yesterday has backed away from the idea that it had about us getting several hours of heavy, wet snow.

Instead, dry air will sweep in, ending the snow for the most part in the evening. 

I am somewhat worried about how cold it will get Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Temperatures will fall well into the 20s, with low 20s fairly common in northern Vermont. A few cold hollows could hit the upper teens. 

So, you magnolia blooms will certainly be toast.  If any fruit trees are blooming early, they're in trouble. Luckily, most are budding so that will minimize the damage. Unlike last May when a killing freeze hit orchards while trees were in full bloom. 

Some garden perennials could get damaged, too, we shall see. Most I think will make it through OK.  

THURSDAY AND BEYOND 

We'll shake our brief excursion back to winter. Thursday will be a sunny, dry, chilly day, much like today. Thursday night will bring us another freeze, but probably not one as intense as Wednesday night's.

After that, regularly scheduled springtime will return. We just have to get through this weird weather week. 

Showers - rain showers to reassure you - might return by next Sunday.  We could even see some temperatures in the low 70s a week or so from now, too. 

Slight Uptick In Rain Hope In Vermont, But Comes With A Bit Of A Price

A fast moving gusty, quick downpour approaching
South Burlington late Sunday afternoon. A sign
that summer thunderstorm season is approaching.

 Yesterday in this here blog thingy, I whined about the lack of rain in the Green Mountain State (except in far southern Vermont). And I whined that precious little rain was coming anytime soon.

I've still got that whine, at least a little bit, but at least there is now hope for at least some rain this week, especially in northern Vermont.  

The price we'll pay is a potentially lousy, cold Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

Before I get into that, a couple interesting things happened in Vermont for us weather geeks yesterday and last night. 

First of all, I'll have to say I was taken by surprise by a broken line of gusty showers that swept southward through the northern half of Vermont late yesterday afternoon and evening. 

It was a sign that summer thunderstorm season was finally approaching. I didn't notice any lightning with these showers, but they had all the other elements of a thunderstorm: Gusty winds of up to 30 mph, brief downpours in a few spots, and even a shelf cloud to herald the arrival of these brief storms. 

Most places didn't get much rain out of them, but anything helps. 

Video of this Welcome-to-summer convective shower is at the bottom of the post. Love that kind of weather. 

Satellite view of what I call the "smoke front" over
southern Quebec late Sunday afternoon. Milky stuff
is smoke from Alberta, whiter clouds over northern
Vermont are showers just ahead of a cold front
that you can see abruptly clearing the air 
over southern Quebec. 

Those showers were ahead of a cold front, that I will also call a smoke front.  As had been forecast, quite a bit of smoke from those big Alberta wildfires hazed up the skies for a good part of Sunday. 

Overnight, a cold front swept south, and that dramatically cleared the skies. 

You could see on satellite images last evening a sharp cutoff between smoke and no smoke over far southern Quebec. It was pretty striking. 

The cold front prompted frost advisories for this morning over much of northern Vermont, but temperatures were near freezing in only the coldest hollows. So that's good. 

Now on to some rain hopes. Sort of.

UPCOMING

Today and tomorrow will be dry and sunny, so that hasn't changed. It'll be kind of cool today, with highs in the 60s this afternoon and 70s on Tuesday.

Now, remember that sharp cold front that came through last Tuesday that led to the hard freeze in Vermont during the middle of last week? Of course you do. 

Something very similar is forecast to happen this Wednesday. Before you panic, we're not expecting anything as damaging or cold as last week's freeze.

What does seem to be happening is that the upcoming strong cold front is now looking like it will have more moisture to work with as it comes through. 

This all means the northern half of Vermont could get a decent half inch of rain out of this. Not spectacular, but helpful. 

The price we'll pay is it will turn pretty nasty cold for May again.  The current forecast has temperatures crashing from the upper 60s  down to around 50 in the afternoon, with cold rains. 

Showers will continue into Wednesday night, and could actually mix with snow in the higher elevations. Pretty late, for snow if it happens, but not unprecedented.

We will have to watch out for frost Thursday and/or Friday morning but it still looks like it will not be nearly as cold as last week.  So if any frost does come our way, it won't be destructive, like last week.

The computer forecasting models, meanwhile, are still struggling with what kind of weather we'll see during the Memorial Day weekend. 

Some feature an upper level low swirling nearby most of the weekend, which would keep us on the cool side with light showers and clouds. Others push this thing off to our east, which would mean more sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s.

It's too soon to believe any forecast for the holiday weekend. We'll just have to stay tuned.

Video: The first decent convective shower of the warm season approaches and arrives in South Burlington, Vermont with a shelf cloud, some gusts to 30 mph and a brief downpour. Click on this link to view, or click on the image below if you see it to watch it: