Hot Times Coming Back To Vermont But It Probably Won't Last All That Long

The gardens around my shed and elsewhere on my
St. Albans, Vermont property are starting to take
on that ragged, late summer look as we head 
toward August. After more heat and humidity coming
in the next few days, another cool spell 
looks like it wants to welcome us into August.

 I hope you enjoyed another cool, crisp Vermont morning today, because it's back to the heat and humidity, for awhile, anyway. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

Today will still be reasonable, and actually perfect for summertime outdoor fun. The humidity will start to increase, but it really won't be all that bad. 

 So taking a hike or other outdoor activity won't necessarily kill you. But grab the sunscreen and the water to drink if you do go out to conquer Camels Hump or something like that. 

Temperatures under sunshine will get into the low or even mid 80s in many places, so it's a great beach day. 

Also, since winds will be light, no need to worry about dangerous conditions on the lakes. Though winds might be so light that sailboats might not work perfectly. But all in all, enjoy today. 

Because you won't necessarily like tomorrow. 

The humidity will surge in tonight. You'll notice it getting stuffy. And we've got at least one more 90 degree, oppressive day to get through. The record high tomorrow in Burlington is 95 degrees. We could get close to that, but chances are we'll just miss. 

In Montpelier, the record high of 89 tomorrow is in jeopardy. But St. Johnsbury's record high tomorrow of 95 looks safe.

On hot, humid days, we often have thunderstorms.  Not this time, though. The chances of storms Thursday are very, very low, due to lots of sinking air with high pressure nearby. I suppose one or two could briefly get going over the mountains, but those will be few and far between.

There might be some activity near the Canadian border in the evening. There's also a chance that people in northern Vermont might, maybe get a light show of potential heat lightning Thursday night from storms in Quebec. 

As a reminder, heat lightning is just regular lightning that's too far away for us to hear the thunder. 

FRIDAY

Friday could be a stormy day for some of us. A cold front will be slowly pressing down from Quebec. It all depends on the timing to determine how things go.

Anytime you get a cold front coming in during the day during hot, humid weather, you risk severe thunderstorms. 

If the cold front is a quickie, coming through earlier in the day,  northern Vermont might escape severe weather as the front will have passed. The slightly cooler more stable air behind the front would squash any wannabe thunderstorms. But northern areas would still get some rain out of the deal. 

 In this quicker case, southern Vermont would be under the gun for scattered severe weather, as storms will have a chance to build in the heat before the cold front finally makes its way to southern parts of the state in the afternoon,

If the front is slower, northern and central Vermont gets the storms. Southern Vermont would just be hot and humid again, as the storms wouldn't get there until evening, when they would be losing some of their punch. 

I hope we'll have a better bead on the front's timing by tomorrow, and whether there might be some strong storms and where. 

 FRIDAY-TUESDAY

There's not a lot of cooler air behind Friday's front, so summer weather should continue for awhile. Generally speaking, it will be warm, with highs in the 80s Saturday through Tuesday. Humidity will be moderately high. A disturbance could kick off a few showers and storms on Sunday, we'll see about that. 

On Tuesday, a stronger cold front will be approaching with its storms and rain.

And then....

AUTUMN RETURNS?

NOAA's outlook for early August has a strong signal
or leaning toward odds of cooler than average 
temperatures for at least few days 

There's a strong signal that next week's cold front - coming at us as July closes and August begins - could be another summer doozy, introducing a cool spell even chillier than the one we just had .

So much for the dog days of August. 

The forecast I've been mentioning stays the same. The heat dome in the middle and eastern part of the nation will migrate westward, allowing for a northwest flow to hit the northeastern United States. 

This looks like it will be an expansive break from summer heat, encompassing most of the Great Lakes area, Northeast and Middle Atlantic States.

It's a little soon to figure out how cool it will get, and how long the lower temperatures will last. But this could be a slightly nippier - and maybe longer lasting spell of uncharacteristically fresh summer weather. 

Early guesses point to about at least a good four days of cool weather. It's a long range forecast, so no promises. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. 

There's also still time for more hot, humid weather in mid-August and beyond, though. Don't expect summer to end next week. It'll probably be just a pause.