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| Dark green and yellow areas of this map are under some risk of severe storms today, with yellow areas at a slightly higher chance of severe weather. |
Not much rain, but enough to make this the 31st consecutive weekend with precipitation. That's a new record for consecutive wet and/or snowy weekends.
The bit of rain Burlington had early this morning is not the end of it. More showers and storms are due today. In fact, there's still a chance of a severe thunderstorm or two today, primarily in southern Vermont.
It's kind of a messy weather system with a sharp end to it.
Usually, if you want severe storms, sunshine during the heat of the day helps destabilize the atmosphere, providing more lift for the strong updrafts that produce torrential downpours and strong thunderstorm wind gusts.
It'll be pretty cloudy today, so that ingredient is missing. However, the incoming cold front is more like one you'd see in the autumn than one in mid-summer.
This autumnal style means there's a sharp temperature gradient involved. You usually don't see that in July. Winds aloft will be strong for this time of year. South winds ahead of the cold front will collide with incoming north winds behind today's cold front.
All that should fire up some pretty decent storms, or at least some downpours. Plus, there is some sun in southern Vermont, which will help prime the atmosphere, too.
Scattered showers will continue this morning, then it appears a main band of showers and storms should enter northwestern Vermont around noon, give or take.
The band of showers and storms should head northwest to southeast across Vermont during the early to mid afternoon, strengthening as it goes.
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we could have isolated instances of strong winds along and south of Route 2, and slightly more cases of potentially damaging winds along and south of Route 4. The rest of central and southern New England is in that same boat.
Most places will be fine. But a few of us Vermonters will be dealing with toppled trees and power lines. Almost all the trouble should be near or south of Rutland and White River Junction.
Much like on Tuesday, there's an extremely low but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in southern Vermont and the rest of central New England. That's not a big concern, since the chances are so low. But I'm throwing it out there to show that this cold front does mean business.
I also suppose a couple of the most intense and long lasting downpours could create a local issue with flash flooding in one or two spots today in Vermont. But if that happens, it will be really isolated, relatively minor and definitely not a statewide problem.
Generally speaking Vermont should get a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain out of this with isolated higher amounts.
COLD THEN HOT
As mentioned, this is an unusual cold front for July. It's more like something that would come through in September. (One of the reasons some storms might be so strong is because this front is out of season. An autumn cold front would not be interacting with such humid air from the south to boost the instability).
Anyway, by late afternoon, northern and probably central Vermont will be in the clear, with sunshine breaking out. There might be an isolated sprinkle left over, but nothing to worry about. Cool north winds will might make you want to grab a sweater if you're doing an evening outdoor barbecue or something like that.
Monday will be a typical September day with sun and clouds alternating and afternoon highs just making it into the mid 60s and low 70s. Monday night temperatures will drop into the 40s with some low 50s in warmer valleys. This won't anything close to record cold, but still, we're not used to it.
But summer is not over, that's for sure.
As I described Friday, the "heat dome" which controls big summer heat waves in the United States, is migrating a little more toward the central U.S. But we're still prone to squirts of hot weather coming in from the west. It now looks like we'll have a sharp boost of heat and humidity late week.
Wednesday should get into the 80s but the humidity will be reasonable. On Thursday, we have another possible shot at 90 degree temperatures, with oppressive humidity
Another cold front should arrive by Friday, but that one will be a typically weak, July style version, so it will stay quite warm even after the front goes by. The changing weather pattern looks like it will still favor additional mostly weak cold fronts in late July and early August.
That means we'll continue with mostly warm summer weather, but on most days the really intense heat would stay to out south and west, with just an occasional oppressive or broiling day thrown in.
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