Francine, No Longer A Hurricane, Still Spinning Off Flooding, Twisters

True to form The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore
reports from near the eye of Hurricane Francine
on Wednesday in this screen grab 
from the Weather Channel. 

 Then Hurricane Francine did what forecaster said it would do last evening, pummeling hurricane-prone Louisiana with another blow.   

Though this one won't go down in history as among the worst, its 100 mph winds, storm surges and blinding rain, smashing through an area not fully recovered from even stronger hurricanes in 2020 and 2021.

So far, fingers crossed, I haven't heard of any deaths from this storm in Louisiana. But damage reports are just emerging. At least 390,000 homes and businesses were without power in Louisiana, reported the Associated Press, with another 46,000 in Mississippi.

Video emerging on social media show mobile homes blown apart, trees snapped, roods damaged, power lines down and a lot of flooding. 

New Orleans streets were flooded after the city was battered by 7.33 inches of rain and wind gusts as high as 78 mph. 

Francine has moved well inland, and as of 7 a.m. today was a tropical depression over central Mississippi with top winds of just 35 mph. 

As you can tell, winds are no longer a factor with Francine. But its remnants are spreading heavy rain and a real flood risk over parts of the Southeast. The byproducts of Francine might also spin up a few tornadoes today in the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. 

The remnants of Francine are trapped over the Southeast by strong high pressure over New England snd southeast Canada. That will prevent us here in Vermont from seeing any effects from the former hurricane. 

Another disturbance way out there in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is likely to become Tropical Storm Gordon later today. It's far away and expected to develop only slowly.  It's days away from any threats to land, and we are not quite sure where wannabe Gordon will go as it develops. 

A storm might also form in the coming days off the Southeast coast and possibly become a subtropical or tropical storm next week. If it forms, it could head into the Carolinas. Also, again, if this system does become something, the same high pressure that is keeping Francine at bay would also keep this thing well south of Vermont, so it wouldn't bother us. 

Hurricane Francine To Smack Louisiana This Evening With Intense Winds, Storm Surge, Flooding

Satellite view of Hurricane Francine late this morning.

UPDATE: 5:30 p.m. EDT

Hurricane Francine managed to strengthen a little bit late this afternoon shortly before making landfall in Louisiana. 

Top sustained winds were 100 mph as of the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

This despite increasing upper level winds which tend to weaken hurricanes.

The storm should come ashore this evening, with those 100 mph. Francine has pretty much run out of time to either strengthen or weaken. 

As of late this afternoon, winds were increasing and storm surges were moving in along the Louisiana coast. 

Expect a rough evening in Louisiana.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The forecast for Hurricane Francine has so far turned out to be accurate as the storm bears down on Louisiana today. 

At last check, top sustained winds were at 90 mph.  Francine has a brief opportunity to strengthen before stronger upper level winds prevent further gains in power right before landfall. 

Still, this storm will be a big problem for much of Louisiana. Storm surges will rise to as much as ten feet right where the storm comes ashore and just east of that spot. Landfall looks like it will be somewhere near Morgan City, Louisiana late this afternoon or evening. 

Luckily, Francine is no Katrina, so main levees in the most flood prone areas like New Orleans should hold.

However, smaller levees in somewhat less populated areas, or smaller levees elsewhere might get overwhelmed, so there certainly will be some coastal flooding. 

Winds at landfall should still be around 90 mph, but those will diminish quickly once the storm moves inland. However, the risk of flooding won't disappear once Francine is inland. 

The upper level winds that are forecast to hit Francine just before landfall might change the shape of the storm from something circular to more of a comma shape. Areas within that expected "comma" with a feeder band coming in from the Gulf of Mexico, will be most at risk for flash flooding and tornadoes. 

Both New Orleans and Baton Rouge could see rainfall rates of up to four inches per hour in the worst of it.  People in both cities spent Tuesday filling sandbags to at least try and ward off the expected floodwaters. 

Once inland, Francine or its remains will sputter out in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, spreading the risk of some flash flooding in that region later today and tomorrow. 

As I mentioned in an earlier post today, Francine won't have any effect on us up here in Vermont. 

Tropical Storm Francine Forms; Will Be A Hurricane

Tropical Storm Francine was beginning to have
"that look" that suggests a potential formidable
hurricane as it organized early Monday afternoon
off the northeastern coast of Mexico.

 That Gulf of Mexico system I mentioned in this morning's post did what I said it would do: It became Tropical Storm Francine.    

It was organizing pretty fast off the coast of northeastern Mexico as of early afternoon. It will head north to northeast while gaining muscle.  It might actually strengthen pretty fast, given the near record hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico that are feeding the system. 

There's not much in the way of strong winds high in the sky over the top of Francine, either, which will help it blossom further. Stronger upper level winds, called shear, tends to interfere with hurricanes.  Since there's not much shear, Francine is free to gain more power. 

The pace at which Francine was strengthening and organizing early this afternoon seems a little faster than earlier forecasts, which feels a little ominous. 

Francine should end up along the coast of southwestern Louisiana, probably around Wednesday evening. Determining how strong a hurricane will be at landfall a couple days in advance is always a chancy proposition. 

Current thinking has it maybe with top wind speeds of 90 mph.  One potential saving grace is that stronger winds aloft are forecast to develop at the time Francine is approaching the coast. That, hopefully, would squelch its efforts to intensify.  

Still, people in Louisiana had better stay on their toes with this one, as damaging winds, dangerous storm surges and inland flooding are all very much on the table.

Once Francine goes inland, its strong winds will diminish quickly, but it will remain a flood threat with heavy rains in the lower Mississippi Valley. 

At this point, the strong high pressure I highlighted this morning over the Northeast should deflect the remnants of Francine away from Vermont. Not a guarantee on that, but that's really the way it looks now.

Francine ends a long pause in tropical storm and hurricane activity that had been unexpected. Atlantic hurricane season this year has been widely expected to be a doozy. 

It certainly got off to rousing start with three hurricanes by mid-August. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 on record. Debby caused damage in Florida and on up the East Coast. The remnants of both Beryl and Debby caused flood and/or wind damage here in Vermont.

Ernesto hit Bermuda in August.  It eventually died on August 20 over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, and there had strangely been no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic until Francine formed this morning. 

The National Hurricane Center is also watching two other disturbances that have a pretty high chance of turning into tropical storms. One of them is in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and another one seems like it might get going in a few days off the western African coast.

It's still way too early to figure out what those two systems might end up doing or where they'll go. Despite the long, welcome lull in tropical storms that just ended, this could still end up being a pretty busy hurricane season. 

Long Dry Spell Set To Begin In Vermont/Most Of Northeast

Dark rain clouds approach St. Albans Bay, Vermont on
Saturday, Sept. 7. The resulting downpours will have been
the last substantial rain we'll get for possibly two
weeks or more. 

 After what has been a rather wet year, especially the summer, it turns out September is looking like it will be quite a dry month here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast. 

Dry, despite the burst of drenching rain we had Saturday. 

The overall pattern features a strong ridge of high pressure over the Northeast and southeast Canada, perhaps to near the end of the month, according so some forecasts.

If that holds, the next couple of weeks will feature mostly warmer than  normal temperatures and especially less rainy than usual. Perhaps much less rain than we usually see. 

Some Final Showers

Before we get there, one last disturbance associated with the cool shot we just experienced will come through today. Unlike yesterday, when it was cold enough for rime ice and snow flurries atop Whiteface Mountain in New York, it will be warmer, so it won't seem so October-like under those showers. 

Like yesterday, though, the scattered showers this afternoon and early evening should be light. They'll amount to a quarter inch at most, but most of us should see something like a tenth of an inch of rain, if that. 

Warm, Dry Week, No "Francine" Here

After today, the high pressure takes over big time, ensuring dry weather the rest of the week and a waring trend. By the second half of the week, some of us will be back up in the low 80s again. 

Meanwhile, after a long break in the Atlantic Ocean is finally once again beginning to bubble with tropical troubles.  

The most immediate problems is a big disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that will probably become Tropical Storm Francine later today. 

A field of golden rods in Georgia, Vermont glows in brief
sunshine Sunday. Golden rods - and everything else in 
Vermont - will enjoy lots of sun most days for 
the next couple weeks. 

Wannabe Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves north and northeastward through the western Gulf of Mexico this week. 

It'll probably smack into the Louisiana coast Wednesday or Thursday. People will need to be on their toes in the that neck of the woods, because wannabe Francine could strengthen pretty fast and catch people off guard. 

Sometimes, the remains of former Gulf Coast hurricanes end up in New England as pretty good rain makers, but it doesn't look like that will be the case this time. At least so far. 

While I suppose it's possible some moisture from what will be a former hurricane could make it this way, chances look strong that our strong high pressure will deflect most or all of that wetness away from us. 

Beyond This Week

Forecasts always get dicier the further out in the future you try to predict, so what you'll read next is so not cast in stone. 

But here goes: 

At times the center of the high pressure in higher layers of the atmosphere might be a little to our west. That could invite a back door cold front or two to come our way. 

They're called back door because they come at us from the east and northeast instead of the usual west or northwest.

These fronts usually tend to be dry, and cause only clouds or just very light showers.  One such front might come through this coming Sunday or Monday. If it does, it might  temper the warmth some over Vermont, but the coldest air with these would probably hit Atlantic Canada or possibly Maine. 

I'll be surprised if that front gives any more than a trace to a few hundreds of an inch of rain 

Beyond that, those long range forecasts are pretty consistent with keeping the mostly high pressure over us to possibly near the final week of September.

I'm not worried about this dry weather getting into a drought. There's plenty of moisture in the ground given the summer we've had.  In the autumn, things don't dry out as quickly as they do amid the strong sun in the height of summer. 

Who knows? This long dry spell, as pleasant as it will be, might also actually protect us. If some sort of former tropical system comes our way in the final days of September or in October, the rain would fall on dry soil and with rivers running low.  That would make it harder for Vermont to endure another desperately unwanted flood.