National Break From Tornadoes Ending In A Big Way

A supercell thunderstorm looking north from Sheldon,
Vermont on May 4, 2018. We're safe from any violent
thunderstorms over the next several days. However,
vast areas of the nation's middle are at daily risk of
severe storms each of the next five days at least,
starting Thursday afternoon. 

In an April 19 post,  I mentioned that tornado activity was temporarily stopping in the United States even as we headed into the height of twister season. 

I said that wouldn't last forever, and boy was I right, and so was virtually every forecaster watching the situation. 

We're about to embark on a severe weather outbreak that will last several days.  There's a strong likelihood of at least a few tornadoes daily at least into early next week.

Of course, the U.S. hasn't exactly been immune from severe thunderstorms over the past few days. It's spring, so it's hard to avoid them. 

On Saturday, severe hail and wind storms hit the Carolinas. Rock Hill, South Carolina was hit by baseball sized hail propelled by winds gusting to 90 mph. As you might imagine, damage was pretty extreme in that area.

Video from the Rock Hill storm with the wind and heavy hail is about as chaotic as you can get from a severe thunderstorm. 

Lumberton, North Carolina was hit by hailstones up to 4.5 inches in diameter, which is about the size of a grapefruit.   That size stone would at least tie the record for the largest hailstone ever found in North Carolina.

Tuesday, intense winds from a severe thunderstorm derailed a train near Abilene, Texas.  

However, a weather pattern that is bringing us in Vermont those hard, plant-damaging freezes tonight and tomorrow night also flooded most of the nation east of the Rockies with relatively cool and definitely dry air. 

That combo discourages the types of thunderstorms that can cause big hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,

But that weather pattern is breaking down. Warm, wet air is about to flood into much of the nation east of the Rockies. Dry air will make it into the parts of the southern and central Plains at times.  This pattern will also feature frequent storms forming in the southern Rockies and then moving northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

It's a classic spring tornado pattern and it looks like it will last more or less for a week or more. 

The bottom line: The next few days will be a tornado chaser's dream, but otherwise a threat to tens of millions of people. Unfortunately a tiny percentage of those people are about to lose their houses to tornadoes or other severe weather. 

The best case scenario will be that the strongest tornadoes avoid hitting towns and stick to open rangeland and farms with few or no buildings. 

It's impossible to say how many tornadoes will touch down, but it could be dozens over the next week

DETAILS:

There could be a couple more severe storms and maybe a tornado in west Texas this evening, but the real show starts tomorrow. 

Thursday

Friday afternoon and evening, a broad zone from southern Nebraska to central Texas is under the gun. It looks like western and central Kansas, western Oklahoma and parts of the Texas panhandle have the best chance of seeing tornadoes.

In this part of the nation, population centers are few and far between, so we do have a good chance that even if any tornadoes get particularly strong, they could thread the needle and avoid hitting towns and cities in the risk area. Fingers crossed!

Friday

Saturday's risk areas focus on most of Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas and parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  This area is far more built up than Friday's zone. Big metropolitan areas like Des Moines, Omaha, Kansas City, St. Louis, Oklahoma City and Dallas-Fort Worth are in this zone. 

That doesn't necessarily mean any of those cities or suburbs will take a tornado hit. Chances are they won't. But it'll be a day to keep an eye to the skies in those areas. 

One mitigating factor could be that storms left over from Friday would interfere with the development of new potentially tornado-producing supercell thunderstorms. 

Weekend 

The risk zone appears on Saturday to extend in a band from Texas to Wisconsin, with the biggest risk of trouble in central Kansas and Oklahoma. A second storm system coming out of the Rockies will help to re-invigorate severe storms and potential tornadoes. By Sunday, the risk zone looks like it will back almost where it's expected on Friday  - from Iowa and Illinois to eastern Texas

Other Problems

This new weather pattern also carries other risks. Bone dry, windy conditions in parts of New Mexico Colorado and western Texas could set off new wildfires and rangeland fires. It's already been a busy spring in that next of the woods for fires, so this might just make the whole situation worse.

In the humid air further east in the Midwest, repeated rounds of storms over the next few days could touch off some flash flooding. In some instances it could be locally quite severe.

Vermont Effects

The change in the weather pattern means Vermont's weather will change, too. We'll endure the hard freezes tonight and tomorrow night before the air turns a lot warmer over the weekend and the first half of next week. 

Highs could easily hit the 70s. 

The cold and warm fronts and remnants from those Midwest storm systems will head into Vermont as they weaken. That keeps us at risk for rather frequent showers Saturday night into Wednesday. There could even be a few thunderstorms thrown in next week. At this point, it doesn't look like that activity will be scary or damaging. Just the usual spring shower.s 

Tornado Season Continues Its Toll: At Least Two More Deaths From Wednesday's Storms

UPDATE:

Screen grab showing just one of many examples of 
tornado damage in Oklahoma from Wednesday night. 

The death toll rose to three from the tornadoes in Oklahoma Wednesday night. 

Meanwhile, a new tornado watch was issued this afternoon for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

As of 4 p.m. there were already a couple of tornado warnings in western Illinois, meaning tornadoes had been detected or radar indicated they were forming. 

The tornado watch goes until 8 p.m. tonight, so we'll see how this plays out. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 

After a semi-break in destructive tornadoes for the past week or two, more deadly twisters struck Wednesday, killing at least two people, unfortunately. 

The deaths were reported in the tiny town of Cole, Oklahoma, population about 600. Close range, don't-try-this-at-home video shot by Reed Timmer shows extreme winds from the large, slow moving tornado shredding buildings, trees and power lines in Cole. 

CNN reported that systematic searches were still ongoing in Cole this morning.  The death toll could rise, and people who had gotten trapped by debris covering storm shelters were being rescued. s 

Another tornado struck the much larger city of Shawnee, Oklahoma, population about 30,000, roughly 30 miles east of Oklahoma City.  Widespread damage was reported there, including to Oklahoma Baptist University. 

Wednesday's tornado in Shawnee comes just nine years after another twister leveled parts of that city. 

Tornadoes were also reported in Kansas and Iowa on Wednesday. 

I don't know whether the Oklahoma deaths were because the victims didn't hear the warnings or had no place to go to be safe.  (A tornado warning had been issued before the twister struck Cole). 

As NPR reported, the accuracy and timeliness of tornado warnings has gotten much better in recent years and decades. But people, especially in low income, rural areas, often have poor cell phone service and no storm sirens, so they don't hear the warnings. 

Weather radios are a godsend in those situations, but only three to four percent of households have them.  They're inexpensive, and especially for people in weaker housing like mobile homes, the ability to get warnings can buy people time to get to safer storm shelters.

Indiana lawmakers had a great idea that should spread: All new mobile homes there are now required to be equipped with weather radios. 

Today's severe weather threat will shift to a broad zone from eastern Texas to Illinois, but as of this morning not many tornadoes are expected for later in the day. 

As usual for this time of year, there's pretty much a daily threat for severe storms and possibly tornadoes for at least the next week, and probably beyond. 

Before Wednesday's tornadoes, the death toll from United States twisters so far this year was already up to 63.  We still have not yet hit the normal peak season for tornadoes, which is usually during the month of May.