Very Hot Times In United States - Including Vermont - This Summer If NOAA Forecast Is Accurate

NOAA says the vast majority of the Lower 48 of the
United States has a stronger chance of a hot summer
than chances of cool weather. Vermont is among
the areas that have the greatest chance of a hot summer.

We here in Vermont are in for a nasty cold blast tomorrow and tomorrow night, but if long range forecasts are any indication, we might look back at this weeks upcoming big freeze with a sense of nostalgia.  

NOAA this past week updated its seasonal forecasts. If they're right, the United States is in for one scorcher of a summer.

Vermont could be in one of the hottest zones, relative to average that is, if the NOAA forecast is accurate.

The forecast covering June, July and August says that chances favor above normal temperatures for the entire Lower 48 except in North Dakota and small sections of adjoining states.  There, it's a tossup as to whether summer will be warmer and cooler than usual.

The best chances for a hot summer are in a broad area from Texas on up through most of the Rockies, and in all of New England and most of New York. 

Worse, if the NOAA forecast is correct the heat would be combined with a lot of humidity in the eastern United States. Those areas, which include Vermont, lean toward a somewhat wetter than average summer. That spells the risk of lots of horrible, humid days.  

A hot summer is by no means guaranteed around here. Forecasts for general weather patterns two, three or four months in the future are always at risk of being wrong. The hot summer prediction is better than flipping a coin, but NOAA doesn't always get it right. Nobody does for this type of forecast.

NOAA actually does forecasts for consecutive groups of three months. 

These predictions don't bode well for us in Vermont if there accurate

The period encompassing May, June and July - basically early summer - have the highest chances of being hotter than normal in most of the Northeast, including Vermont, western Texas and parts of New Mexico, and in parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Late summer, the period including July, August and September, also have the greatest odds of being on the hot side in New England and the Rocky Mountains. Interestingly, not one bit of the Lower 48 is forecast to be a tossup, normal or on the cool side in late summer. 

In the era of climate change, this hot forecast makes me wonder if we'll set another record in Vermont for hottest summer. 

All but one of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have happened since 2005.  

Although last summer was warmer than average, 2023 gave us a break from record and near record  warm stretches. The summer of 2020 was the hottest on record in Burlington. In 2021, we had our fourth hottest summer. And 2022 came in as a tie for eighth hottest. 

If You Hate Arctic Weather Some (Uncertain) Light At The End Of The Tunnel

Maybe take it with a bit of  grain of salt, but after the expected
Christmas cold snap this year, the period of time around
New Year could be on the warm side for all of the Lower 48.

 Weather news is filled with horror and dread about the intense Arctic cold snap poised to envelop the eastern two thirds of the nation between now and Christmas.  

And it is dreadful. As noted this morning, wind chills of 50 below will blast the northern Plains, and temperatures will drop well below freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast. And a big Midwestern blizzard seems to be prepared to throw itself into the mix.   

Weather pundits are calling this potentially the worst December cold snap since an epic one at Christmastime, 1989. 

If you look at forecasts beyond Christmas, though, signs point more and more to the idea that this frigid blast will be mercifully brief.

Then today's daily National Weather Service 8 to 14 day outlook came out. It covers the dates from December 27 through January 2. It shows the entire Lower 48 bathed in warmer than normal temperatures. 

It's quite rare to see all of the Lower 48 in either above or below normal temperatures. Usually, part of the nation is chilly, while other parts are toasty. 

Of course, there's the caveat that these long range forecasts are quite iffy, so there's definitely no guarantee that the days around the New Year holiday will be balmy. Some parts of the United States might end up being on the cool side.  But the forecast is a good sign that the Christmas Arctic blast is not necessarily a sign that the entire winter will be bitter for the U.S. 

Which is good for a lot of reasons. Especially since heating oil and natural gas are expensive and supplies are tight. 

There's another down side to this potentially warm period around the New Year. This same long range forecast issued Monday suggests above normal precipitation for all of the Lower 48 except eastern New England and Texas. 

That suggests a stormy pattern, which would bring its own share of trouble.