There Will Never Be Another Hurricane Ian Or Fiona

Damage from Hurricane Ian in Florida. Usually, the same
hurricane names are rotated through every six years, unless one
particular storm is super bad. Then the name is retired. 
So because of their power, there won't be another
Hurricane Ian or Hurricane Fiona. 

 The Powers That Be who name hurricanes rotate the same names every six years.

That is, unless a hurricane is so destructive and deadly that it is seared on the minds of its victims.  

So, say goodbye to any chance of another Hurricane Ian or Hurricane Fiona.   In the future, say hello to hurricanes Farrah and Idris. Hurricanes Ian and Fiona in 2022 definitely left their marks, and it's no wonder their names are being retired.

Hurricane Ian trashed Florida, and was one on of the costliest hurricanes on record for the United States. 

The long track of Hurricane Fiona caused a lot of damage in Puerto Rico before making a turn north and making a long journey to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, unleashing perhaps the worst hurricane disaster in Canadian history. 

The World Meteorological Organization, which is in charge of hurricane names, has retired 94 names overall. A committee then comes up with replacement names

As the Washington Post reports: 

"The storm names come from a WMO committee composed of meteorology and hydrology experts from North America, Central America and the Caribbean. Official storm naming began in 1953 to ease communication around storm warnings and thus protect lives and property from life-threatening conditions."

As an aside, the entire planet is probably grateful I'm not in charge of naming hurricanes. I'd probably come up with names like Kudlow,  Beezle, Monkton, Tootsie or Skunk.  But I digress. 

For some reason, hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" are the most likely to be retired. Ian is the 13th "I" hurricane to have its name retired. The others are Ione in 1955, Inez in 1966k Iris in 2001, Isidore in 2002, Isabel in 2003, Ivan in 2004k Ike in 2008, Igor in 2010, Irene in 2011, Ingrid in 2013 Irma in 2017 and Ida in 2021.

Speaking of Hurricane Ian, the National Hurricane Center last month came out with a detailed analysis of that storm. The NHC issues final reports on most hurricanes months after they happen to share knowledge gained, lessons learned, etc. These reports also offer revisions to statistics about the hurricanes. 

In the case of Ian, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Ian's peak strength from Category 4 to Category 5 when it was just off the coast of western Florida. Category 5 is the strongest strength ranking a hurricane can attain. Such storms have sustained winds of at least 157 mph. 

Winds were as high as 160 mph during Ian's peak.  The storm "weakened," if you can call it that, by the time it reached land in Florida, with top winds of "only" 150 mph. 

Experts are hoping hurricane season 2023 will be less intense than in recent years. An El Nino, which creates warmer water in the Pacific Ocean west of South America is developing. El Ninos tend to limit hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. 

Limit, but not eliminate. It only takes one to really raise havoc, unfortunately. 

 

2022 Hurricane Season Just Ended (Maybe): Not As Bad As Feared, But Still Awful, And Weird

Satellite view of Hurricane Ian just about to slam
into southwestern Florida on September 28.

Sometimes the end of a season is a good thing. The conclusion of hurricane season last week is one of those good things.  

The Atlantic Ocean's hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, though you can get a tropical storm sometimes outside of those dates. In fact, as I write this, a disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean has a decent chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical storm this week.

Overall, this hurricane season was both less intense than in recent years and also less intense than had been predicted. 

As Jeff Masters, writing for Yale Climate Connections reports:

"The 2022 hurricane season draws to an official close on November 30, after generating 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 95.  Those numbers compare with the 1991-2020 averages for an entire season of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 123.

Thus, the season was near average for number of named storms and hurricanes, and below average for major hurricanes and ACE index, and it breaks an unprecedented streak of six consecutive years with an above average ACE index."

I'd better explain ACE index here. 

Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is kind of complicated. Without getting totally in the weeds, it has to do with a tropical storm or hurricanes maximum sustained winds, as measured every six hours. 

It is a convenient way to compare hurricane seasons. A long lasting, strong hurricane will contribute many ACE points. Then again, a large swarm of modest tropical storms or relatively weak hurricanes would do the same.

We did see two or three really destructive, extreme hurricanes amid a season that featured plenty of weak, short-lived tropical storms. It only takes one or two hurricanes to really cause some pretty extreme disasters. We had that for sure in 2022.

The worst of the bunch was surely Hurricane Ian, which killed at least 145 people and caused more than $50 billion in damage. It was the fifth deadliest Atlantic hurricane of the past 60 years, Masters reports.

The National Hurricane Center recycles hurricane names every six years unless a particular hurricane is exceptionally destructive and/or deadly.  So I'm sure they'll ditch the name Ian, and come up with some other name for the "I" hurricane in six years. 

The 2022 hurricane season got off to a really quiet start, which surprised pretty much everybody. 

When there's a La Nina weather and ocean pattern, the Atlantic hurricane season is almost always pretty damn active. (La Nina is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters off the west coast of South America).

La Nina was big in 2020 and 2021 and we had plenty of tropical storms, including a pretty high number of early season storms. 

Satellite view of Hurricane Fiona dumping feet of rain on
Puerto Rico. Fiona later turned north, causing the worst
storm damage on record in Atlantic Canada.

We had no named storms in the Atlantic Ocean between July 3 and August 31, the first time that has happened since 1941, notes Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane expert.

Meteorologists are puzzling a bit over the lack of storms early in the season. For some reason, upper level winds over the Atlantic remained strong, which tore apart any system that wanted to become a tropical storm. Also atmospheric moisture over much of the Atlantic Ocean was lacking in July and August.

La Nina probably influenced the later part of the 2022 hurricane season, which was especially busy. October was super quiet, then November hit. 

November doesn't usually produce many tropical storms and hurricanes, and those that do form tend to be nothing burger tropical storms or brief, weak hurricanes. 

Here are the November stats, from Klotzbach:

-- November had three hurricanes (Lisa, Martin and Nicole, tying with 2011 with the most November hurricanes on record.

---Hurricanes Lisa and Martin had top sustained winds of 85 mph at exactly the same time in November. That's the first time two November hurricanes were simultaneously that strong since 1932.

--- Hurricane Lisa hit Belize on November 2 the first November hurricane in that Central American nation

---Hurricane Nicole was the latest calendar year hurricane to make landfall along the east coast of Florida. 

So let's face it, the marquee hurricanes in 2022 were Ian, Fiona and Nicole.

HURRICANE IAN

Hurricane Ian will be most remembered for its incredible storm surge around Fort Myers, Naples and Sanibel and Pine islands.

Masters in Yale Climate Connections again:

"The primary reason for Ian's high death toll is straightforward:  A large number of people in a vulnerable location being hit by a strong hurricane, increasing the risk of deaths. The amount of risky development that has occurred in southwest Florida, near sea level, on barrier islands, and on former wetlands - was a disaster waiting to happen, and it happened. Cape Coral, where some of Ian's deaths were reported, was a particularly vulnerable location because of unwise building practices."

In general, deaths from hurricanes in the United States had been declining, but Ian added more evidence that that lower death toll has bottomed out and reversed, as I noted in a post back in October.  Ian was the nation's sixth deadliest hurricane since 1963.

Hurricane Ian was also the eighth costliest United States hurricane, in a list corrected for inflation over the years. Ian caused at least $50 billion in damage.

HURRICANE FIONA

To be honest, it's not all that surprising that Hurricane Fiona caused so much trouble in Puerto Rico.  The island regularly gets hit by hurricanes.  Flash flooding on Puerto Rico's steep topography is inevitable. 

Still, rainfall on Puerto Rico was extreme even by their standards. Ponce received 31.34 inches of rain. Rio Cerrillos, Puerto Rico had 27.14 inches of rain within 24 hours, setting a new record on the island for most rain in that short of a time period. 

The island also has a criminally weak haphazard electrical grid, so power outages become widespread even in relatively mild tropical storms.

After trashing Puerto Rico Fiona took a sharp right hand turn and made a beeline into Atlantic Canada, with devastating results. 

Dying tropical storms and hurricanes hit parts of eastern Canada occasionally, but Fiona was especially concerning, and might well have been influenced by climate change. 

Water temperatures off the coast of New England and Canada were far above average, following a pretty consistent trend in recent years. The warm water allowed Fiona to maintain much of its strength, even as it was in the process of transitioning from a tropical system to an intense non-tropical system.

This meant Fiona's wind and storm surge were much worse than Atlantic Canada has seen from past tropical systems. Damage came to at least $495 million, making it the worst storm on record for this part of Canada.

HURRICANE NICOLE 

Hurricane Nicole demonstrated graphically how a previous hurricane can "prime the pump" and make a new hurricane much more damaging than it otherwise would be. 

Although Hurricane Ian primarily damaged southwestern Florida, Ian still caused a lot of beach erosion and other coastal damage along the east coast of Florida.

There was really no time to repair that damage before Nicole came ashore not far from Vero Beach in November.  Although Nicole arrived unusually late in the season, on November 10.  It was "only" a category one hurricane, with top winds of 75 mph.

A Florida hurricane of that strength would normally only cause minor to moderate storm surge damage, relatively light wind damage and some inland flooding. 

However, with the previous damage from Ian still there, Nicole caused enormous damage to coastal homes and high rises. Numerous homes, especially near and in Daytona Beach, toppled into the sea.  Several high rises were evacuated after being undermined by Nicole's storm surge.

These three destructive hurricanes show that even in what is considered a "meh" year for tropical storm activity, the United States and other nations can suffer extraordinary cruel blows from these storms.

It's A Chilly September Day, Could Be Worse. Also, Tropical Trouble Update

Golden evening light and dark clouds behind a sharp
autumn cold front Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 As expected, it's chilly today, probably the coldest Vermont day we've seen since the end of April. 

Of course, that's not to say the cool breezes, the morning clouds, the risk of mountain top snow flurries and the chances of pockets of frost tonight are unusual.  

I actually did see video of it snowing in Lake Placid, New York this morning. All this is par for the course for late September. 

Maybe less so than in the past, but still, we're blasting through autumn, heading for winter. 

Under the climate change "new normal" we're currently in, this month looks like it's going to work out to something you should expect in September in our now- altered world.  It'll be a contrast to recent record hot Septembers, so I guess you can enjoy the fact you haven't roasted this month. 

However, by historical standards, this September would definitely be warmer than what would have been expected. 

Cool snaps like we're having now, or even near record cold will will continue to happen in September once in awhile. But over the years, they'll gradually become less frequent, or not as chilly as the weather we're having now. 

As recently as the 1960s and 1970s, frost was pretty common even in the Champlain Valley in late September. The record lows in Burlington this week are pretty much all in the mid to upper 20s. 

You can feel the chill in the air just looking at this 
photo in St. Albans, Vermont Thursday after a 
sharp autumn cold front passed through. 

So it could be worse.

As for frost, the best chances of tonight are over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

You'd think the Northeast Kingdom would be under the gun for frost, and it will be close up there. But the wind should continue to blow from the northwest overnight. 

The strongest winds will be east of the Green Mountains. Nothing scary, just a breeze, really.  

That potentially frost-preventing breeze tonight in the Northeast Kingdom has everything to do with Hurricane Fiona

HURRICANE FIONA

Rare hurricane warnings are up in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and parts of Newfoundland, Canada.

Environment Canada is telling residents of these areas to be prepared for winds exceeding 100 mph in some spots, with the risk of structural damage. Serious flooding, storm surge, coastal erosion are all in play as Fiona races northward toward Canada tonight and into tomorrow. 

One good way to measure a storm's strength is to look at how low the air pressure is at the storm's center.  Fiona has the potential to be the strongest storm in history to  hit anywhere in Canada, if you measure by central air pressure. Some forecasts have Fiona's air pressure at 930 millibars when it makes landfall in eastern Nova Scotia tomorrow\. The record strongest storm in Canada had a central air pressure of 940 millibars.

Fiona, as it heads north, will be gradually turning from a tropical system to a non-tropical low. Which means it will expand in size to engulf a large area.  High wind warnings extend as far west as Down East Maine. 

THE NEXT ONE

A tropical depression  has formed in the Central Caribbean Sea, as expected. This is one to watch, because there's a high chance it will eventually turn into a hurricane. It also has a strong chance of eventually hitting the United States.

We just don't know where yet.  If it does hit the U.S., the best I can narrow it down to is anywhere between Houston and Florida. Or possibly the Southeastern U.S.  As the storm develops, forecasters will begin to be able to narrow down the risk zone. 

Atlantic Suddenly Full Of Tropical Danger After Quiet Early Season

Satellite view of powerful Hurricane Fiona east of the
Bahamas this morning. 

 This week,the Atlantic Ocean has really gotten active with hurricanes, tropical storms and wannabe tropical storms. 

As of this morning, we had one major hurricane out there, a tropical storm, a really worrying cluster of storms that will probably turn into a tropical storm, and two other disturbances worth watching.

Some of these will ultimately affect land. So far, up here in New England we're safe, though we'll feel a few effects from that powerful hurricane. Let's take 'em one at a time. 

HURRICANE FIONA:

Yesterday I posted about Hurricane Fiona's destructive slap at Puerto Rico, and how its rickety, corruption-riddled electrical grid collapsed in the face of the hurricane. 

Fiona also caused quite a bit of damage in eastern Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands.

This morning, Hurricane Fiona was formidable, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 130 mph. It'll head northeastward, brushing past Bermuda and flinging tropical storm force winds through that island.

A strong cold front heading into the Northeastern United States will help keep Fiona well off the  United States coast. But that same cold storm system will turn the northeastward traveling Fiona more directly northward starting Friday night when its center is far off the southeastern New England coast. 

That's bad for Canada. Fiona is forecast to make a beeline for Nova Scotia, and probably Labrador and Newfoundland. 

Many things make this bad for Canada. For one thing, Fiona will be racing northward, so won't have much time to weaken over colder waters. Worse, the water isn't that cold. Sea surface temperatures off the coast of New England and Canada are much, much warmer than normal, and that will slow down any weakening trend. 

The expected track of Hurricane Fiona is worrisome
for those in eastern Canada

Still, Fiona will be making a transition from hurricane to large non-tropical storm, which means it will expand in size. 

Intense winds are forecast over the weekend, especially in eastern Nova Scotia, and flooding rains are expected in the rest of the region. This could be the deepest, strongest hurricane on record in that region. 

Here in New England, the expanding Fiona, combined with that strong polar high coming in, will create pretty strong north winds starting tomorrow and especially on Friday. 

Here in Vermont, the winds won't be nearly strong enough to cause damage, but you'll notice a lot of autumn leaves blowing through the air.  

The good news for us is the persistent winds Thursday and Friday nights will keep frost from being as widespread as it would otherwise be in this weather pattern.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON

This tropical storm formed yesterday way out over the central Atlantic Ocean, sort of halfway between Virginia and Portugal. 

It had top winds of 65 mph this morning and probably will get a little stronger. I wouldn't worry too much about this one. It'll just meander out there in the central Atlantic for a few days. It'll just be a storm that bothers the fishies. 

DISTURBANCE 98L

The National Hurricane Center gives a number and letter to areas of suspicious tropical weather that might develop into something. They're keeping a very close eye on one called 98L. Unlike Gaston, this one is worth worrying about. 

Lots of tropical activity in the Atlantic this morning. 

It's southeast of the Leeward Islands at the moment, headed toward the Caribbean Sea.  It's almost guaranteed to develop into a tropical storm, and perhaps eventually a hurricane. Although it's too soon to tell what it will eventually do, many computer models bring this system into the Gulf of Mexico or near the southeastern United States around the end of this month. Stay tuned! 

TWO OTHER DISTURBANCES

One other disturbance way out in the tropics is not expected to develop anytime soon, but still bears watching. Yet another thing about to enter the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa has a better chance of developing, but early indications are it will quickly turn north and not bother anyone. We hope.