I Jinxed It: Vermont Forecasts Shifts To Cold Snaps, Freezes, Maybe Even Snow

A lilac twig in the rain Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Despite a shift in the forecast towards freezes next week
it's early enough so that most garden plants
should weather the cold just fine. 

 In Thursday morning's post, I remarked about how steady the weather has been in Vermont over the past couple of weeks and how it looks like it might stay that way for awhile. 

Boy, did I jinx things!  

It's beginning to look like we have will have two freezes, one of them perhaps pretty sharp, and maybe some snow as it's looking like we're in for more of a typical April roller coaster. Of course, judging how forecasts have shifted since yesterday chances are they'll shift again.

For now, here's how it looks like it will proceed.

Today will be fine with clouds, some sun and maybe a shower around.  It will be a bit mild for the season - upper 50s to near 60. That's fine. 

The weekend will be breezy, partly cloudy and chilly, but again that relatively normal trend I talked about will hold. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s depending on where you are, with lows in the low 30s. Again, nothing odd.

By Monday, though, temperatures look like they'll only make it into the 40s with brisk winds continuing. There will be a freeze at night, but nothing terrible for April - mid to upper 20s.

That's the start of the roller coaster. Tuesday looks mild, Wednesday looks showery. Then it looks like we get a cold blast Wednesday night into Friday. 

From this vantage point it looks like we are in for some snow showers even in the valleys during this period. Highs Thursday would struggle into the 40s, maybe staying in the upper 30s in colder spots.  Nights will feature pretty hard freezes, with lows in the 20s. 

It's early enough in the season so that not much will get damaged from the late week freeze. Magnolia blooms will probably wilt and turn a disappointing brown, but most everything else should make it through, unless we're surprised by a much more intense cold snap than forecast.

Apple orchards and vineyards are not far enough along yet to sustain damage from the expected chill.

Probably after next Friday, it will warm right back up again. 

Vermont Snow Flurries Today, But How Soon We Forget How Wintry It Can Get

Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam this morning
shows a dusting of new snow along high elevation Route
17 in Buels Gore this morning.......

 A few snowflakes drifted past my windows this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Snow and rain showers are in today's forecast. Web cams already show some dustings of new snow on the ground in higher elevations. 

This kind of thing in mid-April is absolutely normal in Vermont for this time of year.

 However, after that unprecedented April heat wave we just had, and some trees in the valleys coming into leaf earlier than I've ever seen before, we can be forgiven for feeling shocked by the snow flakes. 

If you think this is bad, we should travel back exactly one year ago today to see how wintry it can really get. 

On April 19, 2022 a late season snowstorm really over-performed, dumping a general four or five inches of snow in just a few hours across much of northern and western Vermont. Hyde Park received 8.5 inches, and spots in the Adirondacks had more than a foot of new snow.  The wet snow snapped quite a few trees and power lines, cutting power to over 20,000 Vermont customers. Thundersnow rumbled overhead that day, too.

By the way, we also had a snowstorm and  cold snap around this time of year in 2021, when three to six inches of snow fell on much of Vermont on April 20-21, 2021

So cheer up! We're breaking that two year trend by only getting annoying little flurries and dustings of snow. No big dumps of snow for us this time.  And it's going to warm up again. At least briefly. 

First, we'll endure a raw day today as we won't get out of the 40s.  At any time, you could see a cold rain shower, possibly mixed with snow or graupel. 

Graupel is that weird, kind of pellet-like icy snowflake caused by supercooled water freezing onto snowflakes. 

....but the flurries in Buels Gore are nothing compared
to this scene in St. Albans, Vermont
exactly one year ago today. 

Tonight will be cold, with most of us going down into the 20s. I'm slightly worried about some of the new leaves on the trees.  I think most will be OK, but I wonder if a few will shrivel up, turn black and need to start over.  If it gets colder than forecast, that could be an issue, well see. 

Tomorrow will be gorgeous. Still just slightly cool for the season, but with temperatures by afternoon in the 50s with just light breezes, you will feel like spring has returned. 

Do you miss last week's summer weather?  It now looks like we have a brief redux coming Friday. A surge of warm air will pop us into the 70s, possibly low 80s on Friday once again.  This, after forecasts five days ago said we'd be in an extended period of chilly weather. 

The forecast gets really iffy for the weekend, but Saturday looks like it might be on the warm side, too.  We'll see some rain in there Saturday, Sunday and/or Monday, but exactly how much is an open question. 

It will turn somewhat chilly again by early next week. After all, it's still only April

We Hope You Like Change: Vermont/New England Weather All Over The Place

Beneath my deck in St. Albans, Vermont.  Changeable
weather and frequent swings between thaw and freeze
has created an upside forest of icicles through the floor slats

Vermont is a small enough state so that more often than not, the weather is similar from north to south. 

Not this morning. Example: A 6 a.m. today, it was 6 below and clear and calm up in Island Pond. In Burlington, it was cloudy and breezy and 34 degrees. It was snowing in Bennington. 

If you want the variety to continue, you're in luck. Over the next few days, we'll probably get close to everything, except perhaps locusts. No locusts.  

Though there will surely be some adjustments to the forecast, here's how our all over the place weather will work out:

Today: Light snow was spreading in pretty quickly after dawn. It will change to light rain, especially in the warmer valleys. For variety - remember the theme here - maybe there will be a few pockets of sleet or freezing rain in spots. At least it's not a huge storm. Just nuisance stuff, really. e 

Tonight: Instead of temperatures falling after sunset, readings will stay pretty steady and mild - above freezing for a lot of us -  until midnight-ish, then they'll gradually fall off 

Sunday: Some sun, then turning cloudy, maybe some rain late? Mild, low 40s.

Sunday night: Another rule breaker: It stays mild overnight, barely falling into the mid and upper 30s.

Monday: The variety pack maxes out. A few raindrops or wet snowflakes early, then some sun. Instead of temperatures rising during the day, they'll stay steady or even start to drop. By evening, snow showers and snow squalls arrive. At night, strong north winds develop and temperatures crash. 

Tuesday: Back to deep winter. We start the day with temperatures near 0 and wind chills way below that figure as winds continue to gust past 30 mph.  Calmer and sunnier in the afternoon, though, still cold in the teens. 

Tuesday night: Wrong-way temperatures again: Instead of readings falling until about dawn, the temperature will start to go up again after midnight. 

Wednesday: What cold snap? Upper 30s. 

This forecasted manic weather is pretty much a sign of spring, believe it or not. The Arctic is still fully capable of providing frigid blasts.  But the sun angle in the northern hemisphere is rising and the temperature in many areas is now doing the same. 

Battle lines are drawn between those still potent forces of winter to the north and spring warmth blooming to the south. 

This time of year, and going forward through March and into April, we in Vermont find ourselves caught in the crossfire of these two opposing forces. Which means we should plan on anything.

Anything to keep us on our toes, right?