Thursday Evening Vermont Frost Update: Protect Your Plants Almost Everywhere In Vermont

Visible satellite photo has clear skies in northern and
central Vermont and high clouds south late this
afternoon. Many of those high clouds are expected 
to clear, so frost and freezes are likely in most\
of Vermont tonight and early Friday.

It's a gorgeous late afternoon, especially north, where the landscape features clear blue skies and the greening hills and mountains around us. 

Southern Vermont has quite a few high clouds. They might save the day, or I should say night, and prevent frost down there. But chances are better than even, allowing a frost risk all the way down to the Massachusetts border.

Frost, if not a freeze, is a given tonight and early Friday in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain .

The Northeast Kingdom is still under a freeze warning, as it was this morning. But that freeze warning has been extended to all of northern Vermont east of the Green Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to be a little colder there than forecasters thought during this morning. The forecast low in Montpelier tonight is 29 or 30 degrees.Their record low tomorrow morning, by the way, is 29 degrees. 

The rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory for temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. 

Despite a lack of any advisories or warnings in the central and northern Champlain Valley, I still wonder if there might be some patches of frost. I think that might happen in spots, especially near and east of Route 7. Just to be safe, I'd cover up or bring sensitive plants in, unless you're right near Lake Champlain.  If you don't get a frost, it'll be no big deal to remove the covers tomorrow morning. 

As of 4 p.m. the dew point was between 27 and 30 across most of Vermont. The dew point is the temperature we have to cool down to get water droplets and dew.

The dew point is a good, but imperfect predictor of frosts and freezes.  If skies remain clear and wind stays calm tonight, that dew point means it can easily get to near freezing tonight across most of Vermont. 

So yup, dig out the sheets, cover all those brand new frost-prone plants you have and hope for the best. If you have a strong back, haul those big tropical potted plants back indoors if you're in the potential freeze zone. You know the drill

Scattered Vermont Frost This Morning; Even Colder Sunday Morning

Sensitive plants covered up on my St. Albans, Vermont
deck this morning as temperatures bottomed out
at 34 degrees. It should be just as cold or even a
little colder early Sunday morning, so
we'll keep those sheets handy. 

As expected, patchy frost and freezes greeted many of us Vermonters at dawn today. Low temperatures across the state were in the 30s pretty much everywhere. With the exception of some 40s right near Lake Champlain.  

That was definitely cold enough for a frost in many places. Even if it was 33 or 34 where you are,  there might well have been frost. 

Temperatures are usually measured about five feet off the ground. It often is a couple degrees colder when you get down at lawn level). 

Keep those sheets and covers handy for your outdoor plants. It's probably going to be even colder overnight tonight and early Sunday morning. 

Before we get to tonight's chill, today will be delightful.  Though with this horrible drought, I wouldn't have minded a rainy Saturday.  Instead, it'll be a crisp fall day, with bright blue skies, clean, dry air, and sunshine bringing temperatures up into the 60s. Perfect September weather, really. 

So, do you hike, do your apple picking, do your Emergency Frost Harvest in your garden (I picked something like 12 cucumbers yesterday)  and enjoy the day

You'll notice it getting colder quickly the minute the sun goes down. 

TONIGHT'S FROST/FREEZE

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that basically, if you live five miles or more away from Lake Champlain,  expect a frost by Sunday morning. There might be couple exceptions to the rule, but they should be pretty few and far between. 

There's also a slight chance a faint southeast breeze might save the night in parts of the Champlain Valley, but don't count on it! I'd cover your outdoor plants if you want to save them. If it doesn't ultimately frost, then so what, right?

The frost advisories that were in effect for much of central and northern Vermont this morning are being expanded to cover all of Vermont tonight except the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. Grand Isle County is the only region in the state not covered by the frost advisory.

The morning, a freeze warning for actual temperatures below 32 degrees covered only Essex County in Vermont in the extreme Northeast Kingdom.  The Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire were also under this morning's freeze warning. 

Overnight and Sunday morning, the freeze warning will cover much more real estate, covering roughly everything along and east of the Green Mountains and along and north of Route 2. 

Part of the reason why it will be so cold tonight is the drought. Moisture in the air would keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer. Some moisture would have come from wet soils and that sort of thing.  But since everything is so parched, there's little moisture, so it will get colder.

The other ingredients for tonight's added chill is temperatures this afternoon will be a little cooler than on Friday. So the starting point is lower when the temperatures start to drop this evening. The air is even drier than it was Friday, so that will allow readings to crash pretty hard. And the entire overnight will be clear and calm, with no winds or clouds to halt the drop in temperatures.  

COLD IN PERSPECTIVE

This degree of chill in a Vermont mid-September isn't the least bit odd.  It might seem that way given the balmy Septembers we've had in most recent years. Thanks, climate change. 

Temperatures Sunday morning will not come close to any record lows. Burlington's record low Sunday is 29, and the forecast minimum temperature tomorrow is in the mid-30s. The record low Sunday in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is 26 degrees.  Lows in those three communities early Sunday are expected to be around 30 degrees.  

The first freeze of the season in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is, on average between October 2 and 4 or so.  So if it's under 32 degrees Sunday morning, the first autumn freeze will be earlier than average this year.

But it won't be close to record early by any means. Freezes have happened as early as September 8 in Rutland, September 5 in Montpelier and September 13 in St. Johnsbury. Burlington's earliest freeze was on September 13, 1964.  It's not expected to get to 32 degrees there tonight. 

BIG WARMUP, DROUGHT STAYS

The September cold spell will end dramatically during the day Sunday. Temperatures will rocket upward into the low or even mid 70s by afternoon. That's a pretty incredible 12-hour rise in temperatures. 

The frost risk will disappear for about a week at least, as temperatures stay at or above normal through the upcoming week. 

There are some chances of showers coming up, but the expected rainfall looks pretty lame at this point. Enough rain could fall Tuesday to temporarily tamp down the forest fire danger for a couple or few days, but that's it. 

As of now, early guesses are we might get a quarter inch or so of rain. That won't be nearly enough to get ground water back in gear, or noticeably raise water levels in rivers and lakes. 

The overall weather pattern continues to feature a series of dry high pressure systems bursting into New England, with each one stopping to linger overhead for at least a couple days. I don't see any soaking rains going into early October. And probably beyond. 

The drought is probably already the worst I've seen in my 60+ years in Vermont. And it looks like it will probably get even worse before it gets better.  ,

I Jinxed It: Vermont Forecasts Shifts To Cold Snaps, Freezes, Maybe Even Snow

A lilac twig in the rain Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Despite a shift in the forecast towards freezes next week
it's early enough so that most garden plants
should weather the cold just fine. 

 In Thursday morning's post, I remarked about how steady the weather has been in Vermont over the past couple of weeks and how it looks like it might stay that way for awhile. 

Boy, did I jinx things!  

It's beginning to look like we have will have two freezes, one of them perhaps pretty sharp, and maybe some snow as it's looking like we're in for more of a typical April roller coaster. Of course, judging how forecasts have shifted since yesterday chances are they'll shift again.

For now, here's how it looks like it will proceed.

Today will be fine with clouds, some sun and maybe a shower around.  It will be a bit mild for the season - upper 50s to near 60. That's fine. 

The weekend will be breezy, partly cloudy and chilly, but again that relatively normal trend I talked about will hold. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s depending on where you are, with lows in the low 30s. Again, nothing odd.

By Monday, though, temperatures look like they'll only make it into the 40s with brisk winds continuing. There will be a freeze at night, but nothing terrible for April - mid to upper 20s.

That's the start of the roller coaster. Tuesday looks mild, Wednesday looks showery. Then it looks like we get a cold blast Wednesday night into Friday. 

From this vantage point it looks like we are in for some snow showers even in the valleys during this period. Highs Thursday would struggle into the 40s, maybe staying in the upper 30s in colder spots.  Nights will feature pretty hard freezes, with lows in the 20s. 

It's early enough in the season so that not much will get damaged from the late week freeze. Magnolia blooms will probably wilt and turn a disappointing brown, but most everything else should make it through, unless we're surprised by a much more intense cold snap than forecast.

Apple orchards and vineyards are not far enough along yet to sustain damage from the expected chill.

Probably after next Friday, it will warm right back up again. 

Spring Has Already Sprung, Sort Of, In Southeastern United States

Areas in red are already seeing signs of spring in the
form of early leaf formation in some plants. This
is weeks ahead of schedule 

 If you're pining for spring, here's a bit of encouragement:

One way of measuring the progress of spring has determined that the season has already arrived in parts of the Southeast.  

Much of the nation has had a warm winter. The Southeast has been really basking in the balmy season. The result is that boy at least one measure, spring is running as much as three weeks ahead of schedule in the Deep South. 

The National Phenology Network monitors the progress of the seasons based on the bloom times of various plants and shrubs. 

Their first leaf index is based on how things like lilacs and honeysuckles are doing. These are among the first plants that show leaves in the spring. The index refers to first leafing of early spring shrubs and the other plants.  

In a February 6 update, the National Phenology Network said spring leaf out is continuing to spread north in the southern states, and has reached as far north as Charlotte, North Carolina and Norfolk, Virginia. The northward reach of leaf out is two to as much as three weeks earlier than normal. 

Many places in the Southeast are so far having their earliest spring on record, or at the very least the earliest spring in 40 year.  This region had one of their warmest Januaries on record. After a brief cooldown in the first days of February, it's warm again, and forecasts call for above normal temperatures there at least into the middle of this month. 

We do have one area in the United States that is behind schedule with the first stirrings of spring. Parts of southern Arizona are up to two weeks behind schedule due to a cool, cloudy winter so far in that neck of the woods.  

Vermont Frost And Freeze Tonight: Cover The Garden And/Or Say Goodbye To It

Frost and freeze warnings are up for tonight across Vermont.
We'll also have the same problem tomorrow night. 

If you still have some enticing looking veggies in  your garden, even if they're not quite mature yet, today would be an excellent opportunity to do what I call an Emergency Frost Harvest. 

Most of Vermont and surrounding areas are in for a freeze, or at least a frost tonight. And tomorrow night. 

We're in a generally chilly weather pattern and so we have a cold, dry high pressure system coming down from Canada. 

While you're frantically harvesting your crops today, a crisp wind will hold temperatures down in the 50s. Tonight, the wind will diminish and any lingering high clouds left behind will evaporate. That will set the stage for a big temperature plunge.

I can only think of a very few places that will escape frost. Those of you who are very close to Lake Champlain have a good shot of staying frost-free. But even on the Lake Champlain islands, it might get cold enough for some frost if you're inland from the lake more than 100 feet or so.

 It's possible high clouds might linger in far southern Vermont, which might, maybe, hold temperatures barely high enough to keep flowers and veggies safe.  A frost advisory is up for all of the Champlain Valley as low temperatures tonight drop to near or just a degree or two above freezing.

Note that you can still get frost when the official temperature is in the mid 30s. Ground level is a little colder than five feet up, where we look at the temperature.

Things will be the worst well inland from Lake Champlain. A freeze warning is up for most of the rest of Vermont as temperatures are expected to go below 32 degrees.

The Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York aren't under any kind of frost or freeze alerts because the growing season has already ended in those areas. So a freeze warning is pointless there. 

It's rinse and repeat, or I should say freeze and repeat tomorrow night, as temperatures will probably be just as cold Tuesday morning as they will be early Monday. 

It'll warm up nicely, but briefly during the middle of the upcoming week. But an even stronger cold front and stronger blast of cold air than the one coming in now is due by next Friday or so.

 

Finally Time To Bring Those Plants You Want To Save Indoors

Flowers on our St. Albans, Vermont deck looked amazing
for October 20 but we'll finally have to take them indoors
or let them go as very belated frosty weather is due 
over the weekend. 

 While enjoying a glorious moonset with a shimmering Lake Champlain in that moon light, I had to run back indoors to get a jacket. I was cold! 

The cold shouldn't have surprised me. It's the third week in October. It's supposed to be cold in the morning.  We simply haven't had much chill yet, and I still don't have my sea legs in dealing with it. I'm still marveling at how little of this weather we've had. 

As of 6 a.m. in Burlington, it was 42 degrees. Actually a couple degrees above average for a low temperature this time of year. 

WPTZ-TV meteorologist and numbers cruncher extraordinaire Ben Frechette tells us, Burlington has a great chance at breaking the record for latest first autumn day with temperatures under 40 degrees. The record is October 21, 1905. 

And even that record is suspicious in a way.  Back then, Burlington's temperature readings were taken closer to Lake Champlain, where it is warmer. Now they're taken at further inland at the Burlington International Airport in South Burlington. That's further from the lake, and thus usually chillier in the morning. Chances are it was in the 30s where the airport would eventually stand back in 1905 before October 21.

In other words, this all makes the lack of under 40 degree weather all the more remarkable.

The average date for the first morning under 40 degrees in Burlington, by the way, is September 9.  So yeah, we're really late.

All records trends must end, and this one will too. Mount Mansfield just had its latest first freeze on record yesterday. And it will finally go below 40 degrees in Burlington this weekend. 

We'll have a couple more warm days ahead of the next cold front. It will pop up into the low 60s for many of us today, then stay fairly warm tonight. Some showers arrive amidst the warmth Thursday and then temperatures will start to go downhill again. 

It will be noticeably cooler on Friday, and that's the day you'll need to take inside any plants out on your deck or porch that you want to save. It's also the day for most of us to day goodbye to the still remarkably healthy flowers still out there in the gardens.  

There's still some debate as to how cold it will get this weekend, but most of us should expect a frost and/or freeze at least once sometimes between Saturday night and Tuesday morning. It still could manage to stay above freezing in the warmer, broader valleys during that time, especially right next to Lake Champlain. 

The colder forecasts have snow showers all the way down to valley floors on Sunday.  The warmer forecasts keep daytime temperatures pretty reasonable near 50 degrees during the weekend and early next week.

Either way, the chilly forecast is by no means odd. What is weird is the warmth we had so far this month. 

By the way, we're probably not done with balmy weather. After this cool spell passes, signs point to a big warmup during the middle of next week.