I Jinxed It: Vermont Forecasts Shifts To Cold Snaps, Freezes, Maybe Even Snow

A lilac twig in the rain Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Despite a shift in the forecast towards freezes next week
it's early enough so that most garden plants
should weather the cold just fine. 

 In Thursday morning's post, I remarked about how steady the weather has been in Vermont over the past couple of weeks and how it looks like it might stay that way for awhile. 

Boy, did I jinx things!  

It's beginning to look like we have will have two freezes, one of them perhaps pretty sharp, and maybe some snow as it's looking like we're in for more of a typical April roller coaster. Of course, judging how forecasts have shifted since yesterday chances are they'll shift again.

For now, here's how it looks like it will proceed.

Today will be fine with clouds, some sun and maybe a shower around.  It will be a bit mild for the season - upper 50s to near 60. That's fine. 

The weekend will be breezy, partly cloudy and chilly, but again that relatively normal trend I talked about will hold. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s depending on where you are, with lows in the low 30s. Again, nothing odd.

By Monday, though, temperatures look like they'll only make it into the 40s with brisk winds continuing. There will be a freeze at night, but nothing terrible for April - mid to upper 20s.

That's the start of the roller coaster. Tuesday looks mild, Wednesday looks showery. Then it looks like we get a cold blast Wednesday night into Friday. 

From this vantage point it looks like we are in for some snow showers even in the valleys during this period. Highs Thursday would struggle into the 40s, maybe staying in the upper 30s in colder spots.  Nights will feature pretty hard freezes, with lows in the 20s. 

It's early enough in the season so that not much will get damaged from the late week freeze. Magnolia blooms will probably wilt and turn a disappointing brown, but most everything else should make it through, unless we're surprised by a much more intense cold snap than forecast.

Apple orchards and vineyards are not far enough along yet to sustain damage from the expected chill.

Probably after next Friday, it will warm right back up again. 

Spring Has Already Sprung, Sort Of, In Southeastern United States

Areas in red are already seeing signs of spring in the
form of early leaf formation in some plants. This
is weeks ahead of schedule 

 If you're pining for spring, here's a bit of encouragement:

One way of measuring the progress of spring has determined that the season has already arrived in parts of the Southeast.  

Much of the nation has had a warm winter. The Southeast has been really basking in the balmy season. The result is that boy at least one measure, spring is running as much as three weeks ahead of schedule in the Deep South. 

The National Phenology Network monitors the progress of the seasons based on the bloom times of various plants and shrubs. 

Their first leaf index is based on how things like lilacs and honeysuckles are doing. These are among the first plants that show leaves in the spring. The index refers to first leafing of early spring shrubs and the other plants.  

In a February 6 update, the National Phenology Network said spring leaf out is continuing to spread north in the southern states, and has reached as far north as Charlotte, North Carolina and Norfolk, Virginia. The northward reach of leaf out is two to as much as three weeks earlier than normal. 

Many places in the Southeast are so far having their earliest spring on record, or at the very least the earliest spring in 40 year.  This region had one of their warmest Januaries on record. After a brief cooldown in the first days of February, it's warm again, and forecasts call for above normal temperatures there at least into the middle of this month. 

We do have one area in the United States that is behind schedule with the first stirrings of spring. Parts of southern Arizona are up to two weeks behind schedule due to a cool, cloudy winter so far in that neck of the woods.  

Vermont Frost And Freeze Tonight: Cover The Garden And/Or Say Goodbye To It

Frost and freeze warnings are up for tonight across Vermont.
We'll also have the same problem tomorrow night. 

If you still have some enticing looking veggies in  your garden, even if they're not quite mature yet, today would be an excellent opportunity to do what I call an Emergency Frost Harvest. 

Most of Vermont and surrounding areas are in for a freeze, or at least a frost tonight. And tomorrow night. 

We're in a generally chilly weather pattern and so we have a cold, dry high pressure system coming down from Canada. 

While you're frantically harvesting your crops today, a crisp wind will hold temperatures down in the 50s. Tonight, the wind will diminish and any lingering high clouds left behind will evaporate. That will set the stage for a big temperature plunge.

I can only think of a very few places that will escape frost. Those of you who are very close to Lake Champlain have a good shot of staying frost-free. But even on the Lake Champlain islands, it might get cold enough for some frost if you're inland from the lake more than 100 feet or so.

 It's possible high clouds might linger in far southern Vermont, which might, maybe, hold temperatures barely high enough to keep flowers and veggies safe.  A frost advisory is up for all of the Champlain Valley as low temperatures tonight drop to near or just a degree or two above freezing.

Note that you can still get frost when the official temperature is in the mid 30s. Ground level is a little colder than five feet up, where we look at the temperature.

Things will be the worst well inland from Lake Champlain. A freeze warning is up for most of the rest of Vermont as temperatures are expected to go below 32 degrees.

The Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York aren't under any kind of frost or freeze alerts because the growing season has already ended in those areas. So a freeze warning is pointless there. 

It's rinse and repeat, or I should say freeze and repeat tomorrow night, as temperatures will probably be just as cold Tuesday morning as they will be early Monday. 

It'll warm up nicely, but briefly during the middle of the upcoming week. But an even stronger cold front and stronger blast of cold air than the one coming in now is due by next Friday or so.

 

Finally Time To Bring Those Plants You Want To Save Indoors

Flowers on our St. Albans, Vermont deck looked amazing
for October 20 but we'll finally have to take them indoors
or let them go as very belated frosty weather is due 
over the weekend. 

 While enjoying a glorious moonset with a shimmering Lake Champlain in that moon light, I had to run back indoors to get a jacket. I was cold! 

The cold shouldn't have surprised me. It's the third week in October. It's supposed to be cold in the morning.  We simply haven't had much chill yet, and I still don't have my sea legs in dealing with it. I'm still marveling at how little of this weather we've had. 

As of 6 a.m. in Burlington, it was 42 degrees. Actually a couple degrees above average for a low temperature this time of year. 

WPTZ-TV meteorologist and numbers cruncher extraordinaire Ben Frechette tells us, Burlington has a great chance at breaking the record for latest first autumn day with temperatures under 40 degrees. The record is October 21, 1905. 

And even that record is suspicious in a way.  Back then, Burlington's temperature readings were taken closer to Lake Champlain, where it is warmer. Now they're taken at further inland at the Burlington International Airport in South Burlington. That's further from the lake, and thus usually chillier in the morning. Chances are it was in the 30s where the airport would eventually stand back in 1905 before October 21.

In other words, this all makes the lack of under 40 degree weather all the more remarkable.

The average date for the first morning under 40 degrees in Burlington, by the way, is September 9.  So yeah, we're really late.

All records trends must end, and this one will too. Mount Mansfield just had its latest first freeze on record yesterday. And it will finally go below 40 degrees in Burlington this weekend. 

We'll have a couple more warm days ahead of the next cold front. It will pop up into the low 60s for many of us today, then stay fairly warm tonight. Some showers arrive amidst the warmth Thursday and then temperatures will start to go downhill again. 

It will be noticeably cooler on Friday, and that's the day you'll need to take inside any plants out on your deck or porch that you want to save. It's also the day for most of us to day goodbye to the still remarkably healthy flowers still out there in the gardens.  

There's still some debate as to how cold it will get this weekend, but most of us should expect a frost and/or freeze at least once sometimes between Saturday night and Tuesday morning. It still could manage to stay above freezing in the warmer, broader valleys during that time, especially right next to Lake Champlain. 

The colder forecasts have snow showers all the way down to valley floors on Sunday.  The warmer forecasts keep daytime temperatures pretty reasonable near 50 degrees during the weekend and early next week.

Either way, the chilly forecast is by no means odd. What is weird is the warmth we had so far this month. 

By the way, we're probably not done with balmy weather. After this cool spell passes, signs point to a big warmup during the middle of next week.