Vermont August Mostly Warm, Dry, Main Measuring Station Burlington Decided To Be An Exception.

A severe, rotating storm over St. Albans, Vermont on
August 10. Despite  frequent, sometimes severe
thunderstorms, August rainfall in 
Vermont was mostly below average. 

Vermont overall had a pleasantly warm, dry August, though that was interrupted by several bouts of severe weather.

Burlington, which is arguably the main weather reporting station for Vermont decided to buck the statewide trend a little. 

In Burlington, the average temperature for August was 70.4 degrees, or just 0.3 degrees below the modern average. 

Remember, the current normal August temperature is the average from the years 1990 to 2020, when climate change had already begun to change our world. 

By 20th century standards, Burlington's average temperature was on the warm side. It was the 29th warmest out of the past 136 years.  The average high and low temperature for the month were both   within a few tenths of a degree of the "new" normal, 

Elsewhere in Vermont, August turned out to be on the warm side, but not extremely so. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock were between 1.4 and 1.8 degrees on the warm side. Rutland was 0.6 degrees on the warm side. Like Burlington, Bennington was just a tiny bit on the cool side, averaging just 0.2 degrees on the cool side. 

Burlington was also the exception to a generally dry Vermont August. Burlington had 3.99 inches of rain during the month, which was just under a half inch above normal. It was near the middle of the pack as it was the 51st wettest month out of the past 144 years in Burlington. 

Much of Burlington's rain came in a little over an hour on August 8 when a strong thunderstorm dumped 1.2 inches of rain. Much of Vermont had little or no rain that day. A few other areas had light to moderate amounts, except for a narrow section of the Champlain that got nailed. 

That storm was on of several in Vermont that caused some damage. The August 8 storm caused damaging wind and hail in a small area around South Hero, Milton and Colchester.  

Another storm on August 10 mainly affected Franklin County. Rotation in the storm prompted a tornado warning, but no twisters are known to have touched down. However, strong straight line winds caused extensive damage, especially on Maquam Shore in Swanton and in St. Albans. 

On August 12, a severe storm hit southern Chittenden County, knocking down four large trees in St. George. Another large tree fell and blocked Route 116 near the South Burlington/St. George line. 

The next day, a severe storm dumped ping-pong sized hailstones in Fair Haven, and knocked down several trees along Route 30 in Castleton.  Another storm in North Troy, in northeastern Vermont.  

METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 through August 31. That time period is what climatologists consider as summer. It makes the bookkeeping easy. 

As measured in Burlington, meteorological summer was the 11th hottest summer out of the past 128 years. 

All but three of Burlington's hottest summers have happened since 2005. (The other three were in 1901, 1949 and 1995).

Burlington had the 12.73 inches of rain during meteorological summer. That's a little less than an inch above normal. 

Since summers have in generally been getting warmer amid climate change, this turned out to be the 30th wettest summer out of the past 128 years. 

LOOKING AHEAD

No matter what happens, you'll know very soon that summer is over. The average temperature falls rapidly in September. In Burlington, we normally have a high of 78 degrees and a low of 58 degrees. By September 30, the normal high and low is 66/47.

I guarantee somewhere in Vermont during September, there will be frost. It's even possible in the banana belt Champlain Valley. September freezes were once fairly common in Burlington. But, it hasn't been 32 degrees there in September since 2014.

For what it's worth, NOAA says it's a tossup as to whether we'll see a warm or cool September. NOAA is leaning toward a wet September in Vermont. We shall see!

 

Cool Saturday Morning, Unsettled Vermont Weather Week Coming Up

Some showers tried to get going in northern Vermont
Friday morning as a cold front arrived, but they never
really did amount to much. View here is a section of
Route 105 between St. Albans and Sheldon. 

Yesterday's cold front brought only sprinkles for most people. A few isolated areas got a quick shower, but the dry weather continues. We need the rain but for most of us, that's not coming for awhile. 

Meanwhile I Got up this morning and I actually felt, chilly. Autumn air was streaming though the open window. Where's my fleece?

I'm not complaining about a cool comfortable morning, not at all. But it is yet another sign of an autumn looming. 

TODAY

Burlington, Vermont had its coolest morning since June 9 this morning, but it wasn't all that cool in the grand scheme of things. It got down to 50 degrees at last check. We missed the record low for the date by a full nine degrees. So this wasn't exactly unusual.  

Most other Vermont towns were in the mid and upper 40s at dawn. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York appears to have gotten down to 36 degrees. All this sets the stage for a gorgeous day, as we've been advertising for days. 

As expected, there were plenty of foggy spots in the mountain valley early this morning. Those were starting to clear up as I wrote this at around 7:30 this morning. 

We are still in for a gorgeous day today. Sunshine will mix with some clouds. There was a patch of clouds over the northern Champlain Valley early this morning, but that should dissipate.

By afternoon, most of the scattered puffy clouds will be over the hills and mountains while broad valleys will be sunnier. The sunshine should boost temperatures into the  70s

Today will be the pick of the weekend. Though tomorrow will be OK, too.

SUNDAY 

The day will start with sunshine, but some clouds will work in, especially north. That's because a weak cold front will come at us from Quebec. A few scattered showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder could develop in the afternoon and evening, probably mostly north of Route 2.  

The best chance of showers are over the northern Green Mountains.  Not everyone will get wet, so chances are you can eke out your outdoor plans. 

Highs statewide should reach well into the 70s again, so it'll be comfortable again. 

The showers will work southward Sunday night, but will be widely scattered. 

MONDAY/ TUESDAY

The cold front will have gotten south of Vermont by Monday, but should stall not too far away from us. We'll get another nice day Monday as high pressure noses in from Quebec. It'll stay vaguely cool, with  highs in the 70s and lows Monday night within a few degrees either side of 50.

That old cold front will start to work north as a warm front Tuesday, so I think we might see some increasing clouds. That said, we still have conflicting forecasts on whether rain will sweep through during the day, or will it hold off until later? Stay tuned. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

As I noted yesterday, at least parts of Vermont are seeing a developing drought. We could use some rain for sure. Forecasts now call for a decent rainfall. Though I'm not promising it. Too often, when a lot of rain is expected three or four or five days from now, it all dries up before it gets to us, and in the end, we get little precipitation.

But for now, a storm looks like a storm coming in will drive that warm front into Vermont, and then a cold front would quickly follow. That would give us a decent batch of rain. 

We can only hope. 

This weather pattern looks like it could bring another round of severe weather for parts of the Northeast. There's been so many outbreaks of such weather this summer, For now, it looks like the severe weather might pass south of Vermont. But we'll need to watch this weather pattern, in case the trouble sneaks north. 

 

 

The weather pattern will feature channeled flow against
a deep layer high in the southeastern US and a strong, compact upper
low shifting slowly eastward across Canada. Systems with Pacific
origins will get sucked into this fast flow bringing rounds of rain.
Surface high pressure in far eastern Canada will try and keep warm,
humid air from lifting northeastwards, and so we will be on the
stable and dry side of things for the most part on Tuesday. We still
should observe increased clouds and some rain along the southern
portions of our forecast area. A stronger area of low pressure will
develop over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, and that should
provide the focus for more active weather conditions. The interface
of dry, stable conditions on the western periphery of departing high
pressure and humid, modified tropical Pacific air will create the
potential for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday
afternoon. Elevated instability could allow thunderstorm activity to
persist overnight before the system departs early Thursday morning.
Synoptic scale models are starting to depict this feature as the one
that produces most of our rainfall next week. Dynamically, the
system appears quite vigorous and simulated IR satellite off the GFS
is showing the potential for cool cloud tops associated with the
elevated convection and strong isentropic lift. We`ll continue to
keep an eye on this feature.

Drought Developing In Northern Vermont

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates
drought conditions have started in
the Northeast Kingdom (orange shading)
Yellow areas are abnormally dry, which
is a precursor to drought. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, indicate a new drought has developed in northeastern Vermont 

About 13 percent of the state is now in drought, the report noted. The area in drought in in western Essex County, northern Caledonia County and eastern Orleans County. 

The area of abnormal dryness, which is a precursor to drought, also expanded over the past week. The dry area is in most northern Vermont, and in eastern Vermont north of White River Junction. 

As of Tuesday, when the drought data is compiled, nearly 42 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought. Last week, 32 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.

This is the first time any part of the state has been in drought since the week of May 14, when the lower Connecticut Valley south of White River Junction was in drought. Heavy rain erased that area of drought during the second half of May. 

Yesterday, a little rain fell in parts of the Northeast Kingdom during some thunderstorms, but the rain didn't amount to much. Mostly a quarter inch or less. A few pinpoint spots with a little more, but the rain won't change the drought. 

Short term, over the next week or two are somewhat encouraging in terms of rainfall. We have numerous chances of rain over the next two weeks, but it's unclear how heavy that rain might be. 

Once we get into September, chances increase that storm systems create a more widespread, steady rain rather than the hit and miss thunderstorms we see in the summer.

That said, Septembers can be quite dry.  Large high pressure systems often slow down or stall over northern New England and southeast Canada in the early autumn. That creates many consecutive days of dry weather. If several such high pressure systems appear, droughts can easily intensify. 

This drought is not nearly as bad as the one that hit last summer and autumn. The current drought in the Northeast Kingdom is considered "moderate."  By October of last year, virtually all of Vermont was experiencing major or extreme drought. 

It would take a very strong shift toward almost no rain to see a repeat of last year. 

Wild Storms, Tornadoes Hit Mid-Atlantic States While We In Vermont Keep Enjoying Quiet Weather. We Need Rain, Though.

A waterspout turned tornado
seen here damaging a 
beach resort on Long Island, NY.
Severe weather and tornadoes
hit the Mid-Atlantic states,
but we in Vermont stayed
on the quiet sidelines.

We in Vermont should be very thankful the weather system that just threw clouds across Vermont on Thursday didn't hit us head on.

The storm unleashed tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states. 

A tornado ripped through Dover, Delaware of all places. A Kraft Foods plant was also damaged. Two hotels were badly damaged, and the city was strewn with broken trees, debris an downed power lines. Streets were flooded.  Miraculously, no injuries were reported. 

On Long Island, in Nassau County a waterspout came off of Reynolds Channel from Far Rockaway, Queens, and came ashore at a beach club. About 30 cabanas at the Sun and Surf Beach Club were damaged or destroyed by the likely tornado.  Luckily, there was only one minor injury, to a worker at the beach club. A state of emergency was declared in Nassau County because of the likely tornado.

Another possible tornado hit the city of Columbia, in central Pennsylvania, partially collapsing several buildings. 

Up here in Vermont, of course we were bystanders to all that, thank goodness. The clouds were a bit thicker than forecast, but not by much. Some rain actually worked its way into far southern Vermont, with Bennington reporting 0.2 inches. So a bit of needed water down there.

It seems like it's getting kind of dry here in Vermont, despite the scattered, sometimes even violent thunderstorms we've seen this month. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, has expanded the area of abnormally dry conditions in the Northeast Kingdom. That dry area now encompasses nearly a third of the state.

"Abnormally dry" is a condition that is just shy of a drought. 

Not much rain is in the forecast, either. As usual, let's get into the daily forecast

TODAY

It still looks like today will be the pick of the week in terms of weather conditions. We started the day quite cool, with dawn temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50 amid the usual patches of fog.  Autumn is creeping up on us. 

The day will turn out gorgeous, with mostly sunny skies, low humidity and highs well into the 70s, possibly near 80 in the warmest valley floors. Then, we enjoy Another clear, cool nigh.

SATURDAY 

Increasing clouds but still nice, highs in the 70s to near 80. A couple light showers could work their way into southern and eastern sections of the state during the afternoon and evening. 

SUNDAY

A risk of showers, but unfortunately, it looks like soaking rains will go by to our west and to our east. One low pressure system will move northward west of here, going through the eastern Great Lakes into western Quebec. Another, small but potentially wetter system will move northward near coastal New England and then head toward Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. 

Vermont will be caught in the middle. Which mean we'll have clouds and a shower risk, but light amounts of rain since most of the energy to produce downpours will be to our west and east. 

That said, a few showers could have locally moderate to briefly heavy rain, but that will only hit a small percentage of us. As it stands now, it looks like most of us will have a quarter inch of rain or less. There might be little more than that in far southern parts of the state.

MONDAY

The two storms I mentioned above will consolidate in northern Quebec. That will send cool, sort of moist air down in our direction. That means partly to at times mostly cloudy skies both days. Light showers should be scattered about, especially in the north and in the mountains. 

The cool north flow won't grab as much cold air as it could this time of year. Sometimes this weather set up keeps daytime temperatures in the 60s. Instead, we should be mostly in the 70s, with some 60s in the Northeast Kingdom

 

Vermont Continues To Be Blessed By Great Late Summer Weather, But Rain Would Still Be Nice

A storm looms north of St. Albans, Vermont late yesterday
afternoon. Only a few places in far northern Vermont 
got some rain yesterday. 
Photo by Jeff Modereger.

As expected, any showers and storms pretty much stayed near the Canadian border yesterday and last night. 

One downpour just missed my house in St. Albans, Vermont during the late afternoon, which is too bad, because now I have to rig up the hoses to water the gardens. 

Especially since no rain is anticipated until Sunday, and that rain at this point does not look impressive. 

Other showers and isolated thunderstorms ran right along the Canadian border in New York and northwest Vermont late in the evening.  But again, most of us missed out.  On the bright side there was no severe weather. 

As always, let's get into the Vermont dailies

TODAY

We started out this morning with comfortable temperatures in the 50s, with the usual patches of early morning fog, especially in the river valleys. Otherwise, the mostly clear skies we're starting out with today will become more cloudy by afternoon. Mostly high clouds, especially north. 

The weather system that caused renewed flooding in Indiana and Ohio yesterday and last night is passing to our south, and that's what's throwing the clouds our way. There's a slight chance of light showers near the Massachusetts border this evening. But nothing major.

FRIDAY

Friday still looks like the pick of the week. After another comfortable dawn with those patchy areas of fog again, we'l have sunny skies, low humidity, with highs in the 70s to near 80. Can't get much better than that. 

SATURDAY

We continue the trend we've had this summer of nice Saturdays, at least in northern Vermont. More morning fog, then sunshine, highs again in the 75 to 82 degree range. Some clouds might increase in the afternoon.

Further south, the clouds will probably come in on Saturday sooner than in the north, and there could be some afternoon showers. So head north if you want the nicest weather. 

SUNDAY

There is a chance of showers, but Vermont might get cheated out on soaking rains. At this point, it looks like one storm will take some decent rains northward through western and central New York and into western Quebec.

Another little coastal low looks like it will bring another batch of heavy rain, or at least heavy-ish rain northward through the eastern half of New England. 

Vermont will be in the middle, with much less rain. There's still a chance things could rearrange themselves so that the rain comes down a little harder, a little more beneficial. 

It should be warm, with highs in the low 80s. It will also be a little warm humid.

MONDAY

Cooler, with a risk of remaining showers. Not sure how cool yet, but it could be another hint of autumn. 

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Will Weather Pattern Adjustment Might Eventually Soak Vermont. Maybe

National Weather Service has decent rains over much of
New England including Vermont over the next seven 
days. Purple shading is at least 1.5 inches of rain.
If this forecast materializes, almost all of that
rain would fall between Tuesday and Thursday.
Forecast is subject to big changes, though. It's 
possible we'll end up missing out again. 

As we enjoy our beautiful summer weekend, our gardens are getting a little fed up with all this sunshine. 

It's getting drier and drier out there. No drought to report out there yet. But we could be heading in that direction if widespread rain doesn't arrive soon. 

The ongoing dry weather is well-timed, since it's hitting on the weekend. Comfortable nights, warm summer day on Saturdays and Sundays during Vermont's short summers are precious. So let's enjoy it. 

A little shift is coming up in the weather pattern that could, perhaps, give Vermont a good soaking during the work week. 

For the past couple weeks, a heat dome was positioned over the Rockies and Plains states. The corresponding dip in the jet stream sent quick storms racing across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, causing outbreaks of severe weather in those places. 

Vermont would get some rain out of these, but it was generally hit or miss. We'd also get some severe weather, but not nearly to the extent as places south and west of here. 

Now, there's a subtle shift setting up. The heat dome in the Rockies is nudging just a bit further west. So is the base of the jet stream dip in the East. At first, we'll just have more of the same, with a batch of severe weather in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday and in the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday. 

But with the base of the jet stream dip a tiny bit to our west, there's an opportunity for the next weather system to slow down and sit near us for a few days next week.  That could bring a statewide, soaking rain.  

The computer forecasting models are still disagreeing on how much things will slow down and how much rain might fall. We might still only receive a little rain, as the moisture could slip off the East Coast before ever making it to Vermont.    

We have been cheated out of a soaking rain frequently in the past couple weeks, so that dry scenario is definitely possible.  But some other  forecasts give us an inch or two.

There's also a slight chance there could be too much of a good thing. If it rains too hard we could see some flooding. The risk of that happening so far looks to be on the low side, but it bears watching, just in case. 

The first chances of showers or thunderstorms would arrive Monday. But those look to be hit and miss, probably mostly miss, so there wouldn't be too much rain then. 

The bulk of the showers and storms would come through Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks now .

We'll obviously update you as the possible rainstorms draw nearer next wee 

Severe Weather Blasts Northeast, But Not Vermont, But The Wind Was Impressive

Scary weather hit the eastern United States
yesterday, but not Vermont. This shows a
flash flood in West Virginia. Note 
the water level outside the sliding 
glass doors. Photo via Facebook 
posted by Ryan Hall Y'all

As expected, Vermont escaped the severe weather that slammed large swaths of the Northeast, but we did have a little bit of wind trouble.

Even though there were no big storms  in Vermont - in fact a number of places had no rain or just a trace - non-thunderstorm south winds cut power in a few spots.  At one point, 3,750 homes and businesses were without power. 

The winds were strongest in the Champlain Valley. Burlington had a gust to 46 mph, for instance. I spent part of the late afternoon removing small branches and twigs from my St. Albans yard. 

It's very unusual for a storm to generate such big gusts this time of year. We've had a series of such storms this summer, which is weird. 

Given such a volatile storm severe weather was inevitable somewhere. So far, nine tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Flash flooding swept many areas. The New York City area endured badly flooded streets for the second time in four days. In parts of West Virginia, five inches of rain fell within hours, causing catastrophic flash flooding. 

More than 2,000 flights were canceled because of the storms.

After all that chaos, things are calming down. Which in a way, is too bad. Parts of Vermont really need the rain now. 

TODAY

A cold front is coming through Vermont this morning, too soon to let thunderstorms really fire up. That'll happen further east. Central and northern Maine is under the gun for some severe storms today. 

We will have some hit and miss showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder in a few spots. You could see a band of light rain over northern New York shortly after 9 a.m. That was the cold front.  Even so, many of us will avoid any rain.  

We all love nice days, but, as I've done before, I need to quote Lynn Anderson. "Along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometimes."

We're not quite yet on the cusp of another drought, but we do need some rain. At least in parts of Vermont. Scattered showers will bid a hasty retreat out of Vermont by early to mid afternoon. 

The front will make the humidity crash during the day today. You'll notice the change in the air by this afternoon amid fresh westerly breezes. Temperatures will hold in the 70s, with a few low 80s southeast. 

TOMORROW

A gorgeous day. We'l start with another cool morning, most of us will see lows in the 50s, with 40s in the cold spots. Highs will reach the 70s to low 80s with low humidity. The sun will be mixes with a  few pretty clouds. Another Chamber of Commerce day. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

We're in for more weather fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We'll enjoy a couple of coolish, comfortable mornings followed by sunny, warm afternoons. Pleasant enough for a vigorous hike, warm enough for a dip in the lake or a swimming hole. Maple cremees will be eaten fast so they don't melt all over the place. 

Highs will be in the low 80s Friday and mid 80s Saturday, with a few upper 80s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Some sort of disturbance will work in to raise the risk of some showers, but it will absolutely not be a washout. Unsettled weather will continue early next week, but we don't have specifics on I  unsettled. At least not yet. 

Even After A Rain, Drought Conditions Quickly Favor Return To Fire Danger

A pretty sky on a brilliant September day Monday
as seen from a hillside near Richmond, Vermont

You can tell we needed a lot more rain than what we got Friday and Saturday to dig ourselves out of the drought. 

One sunny, breezy, admittedly gorgeous Vermont Monday and it's already getting parched out there. 

The rain from Saturday soaked in a little, but only wetted the thinnest top layer of soil. That's already drying out. 

You can tell the rain did little good because river levels scarcely budged from their low levels. 

Rock bottom low Lake Champlain rose a whole 0.03 inches from late last week to a 93.38 feet yesterday, an incredibly low level. 

So, given this, we'll have to watch for occasional fire risk days when low humidity and breezy winds overlap for the rest of this autumn until we get some soaking rains. As leaves die and drop and weeds and vegetation turn brown and dormant, the fire risk will rise. 

We'd better pray for a soggy mid and late autumn

THE FORECAST/FIRE RISKS

They did get some frost in the very coldest hollows last night. There were some reports of low to mid 30s in the Northeast Kingdom. The always-cold spot Saranac Lake, New York in the Adirondacks was down to 29 degrees. It was 32 there yesterday, ending their always short growing season. This year, it was 97 days between the last spring freeze and the first one of the fall.

All the rest of us, of course, escaped anything like that. I'm grateful the wildfire smoke in the atmosphere has been pretty minimal around here lately.  It was nice to see that deep blue sky between the decorative clouds in the sky during the day Monday, 

The very low humidity will continue to dry out the landscape over the next few days. Today, the fire danger is high in southern Vermont and just moderate in northern Vermont, where better rains fell  Saturday.

We'll continue to have cool nights and warm sunny days today and tomorrow, (lows 40-52, highs well into the 70s) and plentiful sunshine. But we won't have much wind. So if a fire were to start, it wouldn't spread too fast. And the lingering but waning moisture from the weekend might also hinder the spread. 

THURSDAY DANGER

The potential problems come Thursday. By then, the fine fuels that can catch fire - dry grass, weeds and leaves) will have dried out completely after Saturday's rain. 

Meanwhile, the drought has gotten so bad that big things in the forests like big dead branches and fallen logs have really dried out.  It takes a long time for those objects to get dry enough to burn efficiently, but we've accomplished that this year.  Once they dry out, it takes a lot of rain to get them sort of too wet to burn once again.

If these big branches and logs do burn,  they can generate a lot of heat and can make fire behavior more dangerous than usual. And make it much more difficult to contain a forest fire.   

It's one reason why droughts are so dangerous 

The reason I bring this up when I'm talking about this coming Thursday is another cold front is coming. It will have no rain with it like most cold fronts do. But it will generate some gusty north winds. It won't be a gale, but the 25 mph gusts could spell trouble. 

That kind of wind is enough to make it easy for fires to start and spread quickly. With all that dry stuff in the woods we can really have some trouble.

Which is why we all have to be careful with fires. Especially on Thursday. If we don't start any blazes, then there's no problem. At least in terms of wildfires. 

The wind should quickly calm down late Thursday night, so at least the gusts won't last long. The next chance of somewhat windy weather is Saturday, when breezes will pick up from the south.

We do have a slight chance of light showers Sunday, but that's iffy. If it does rain, it will be very light - easily less than a tenth an inch. Which wouldn't do much good.  There's a good chance it might not rain at all. 

According to a lot of the forecasts I've seen, the next shot at any real rain in Vermont would come around September 20.  That's an awful long time to wait in a drought like this.

Drought Officially Spreads Into Vermont; Expands, Worsens In Northeast

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released this 
morning, has a little more than a third of 
Vermont (orange shading) is in drought.
The rest of the state (yellow) is
regarded as "abnormally dry" which
is just barely short of drought conditions

 The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor has made it official: 

Parts of Vermont are now in drought, and drought is expanding - and worsening - in northern New England,.

Roughly a third of Vermont is in moderate drought, most in the Connecticut River Valley and central Vermont. 

The entire rest of the state is "abnormally dry" so none of us are in good shape.  A week earlier, the northern Champlain Valley was technically not "abnormally dry" but it really kinda was. 

This really is a flash drought, which is one that comes on in a matter of weeks, rather than the months it often takes for such a dry spell to develop. 

During the week of July 29, no place in Vermont was regarded as abnormally dry.  Then, a week later, 72 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.  That went up to 87 percent last week. Now, this week all of the state is abnormally dry with that third of the state in drought. 

Drought continue to deepen in nearby states. Fully 85 percent of New Hampshire is in drought, up from just 12 percent last week. 

The drought is deepening in Maine, too. About 41 percent of the state is in at least moderate drought. This week, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded the dryness along much of the seacoast to "severe drought."

The weather outlook isn't great. It's going to stay dry for the next three days. Some fairly decent rains might come through New England Sunday and Monday, but it won't be nearly enough to end the drought. It might barely dent it. 

Beyond Monday the overall weather pattern heading into September favors mostly dry weather. This drought came on ridiculously fast, but it's not going to go away anytime soon. 

Another Frost Risk In Vermont Tonight, As If We Need It

Water beads cling to a plant in St. Albans, Vermont 
Wednesday evening after a little rain. A frost risk
tonight and very dry weather will continue to
challenge Vermont gardeners and farmers. 

 Frost advisories are flying for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley for tonight as another blast of late season Canadian air is now entrenched in the Northeast for another day. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is awaiting more data today to decide whether or not to expand the advisory into the Champlain Valley, so most of us are at risk. 

This is not what we need, given the apparent extensive damage from last week's frost. 

I'll have much more on that issue in a separate post later this morning. That upcoming post will explain why I suspect at least parts of Vermont will be declared a disaster area because of the freeze damage.

The cold tonight won't be as bad as last week's record setting chill. But with many fruit crops already damaged, this isn't great news. I don't think additional damage will be that severe, at least I hope, as most places should stay above about 30 degrees. 

But remember: It doesn't have to officially get down to 32 degrees for frost to damage sensitive plants. Temperatures are typically measured five feet or so off the ground. On clear, calm nights like we anticipate tonight, it can be much colder around our toes than it is around our head and chest. It could be 35 degrees where your arms are checking the thermometer and 32 degrees down where your tomato starts are freezing. 

The sun re-appears Wednesday evening in St. Albans, 
Vermont after a cold front dropped about a quarter
inch of rain, which isn't much. Next up: A frost
risk in Vermont tonight and more dry weather. 

For most of us, this will very likely be the last frost and freeze of the season, except in the normally coldest hollows. Which will probably have a frost tomorrow night, too. But the rest of us will be safe.

If you get through tonight's frost risk, everything will be fine in your garden or on your farm, except for more looming dry weather. 

The rain that came with yesterday's cold front wasn't all that impressive. Most of us got a quarter inch or less. It amounted to a small sip, but not the drenching we need. I even noticed last evening the soil was still dry under the thickest foliage in my garden. 

Things will continue to dry out rather ominously.  Absolutely no rain is in the forecast through next Tuesday, and probably beyond. 

We are also set to start a strong warming trend.  By Sunday, temperatures should top 80 degrees, and by Tuesday or Wednesday, we could see some upper 80s. 

The sun will stay out through this time (except at night, of course) and humidity will stay pretty low, which maximizes drying. It's going to be pretty dusty around here by the early and middle parts of next week. 

I still think we might be headed for a drought. We're not there yet, but we'd better have some nice soakers as we get into June. 

Still Dry And Smoky Out There In Vermont, Little Change Coming Anytime Soon

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
is forecasting a bout of wildfire smoke from Alberta
overhead this afternoon. That will dim the sun,
and possibly discourage some scattered showers from
forming. Too bad, we could still use the rain. 

 I'm not exactly impressed by the amount of rain we got last night. 

Burlington managed a third of an inch. Rutland and St. Johnsbury lucked out with about a half inch, and Montpelier didn't even quite make it to a quarter inch. 

An exception to this is far southern Vermont, which received more than an inch of rain yesterday and last night. 

Still, most of us are definitely behind in rainfall, and we here in Vermont could use a good soaking. Last night's rain just dampened the surfaces a little.  I don't think any good rains are on the horizon just yet. 

The rain this month shut off around May 3. We were doing well, with soil conditions quite moist ahead of the grown season.  Yes, the weather has been mostly gorgeous this month. We've had plenty of sun.  And the humidity has often hit rock bottom for our area. That has really dried us out. It makes me wonder if we're heading for what is known as a flash drought. 

A flash drought is sort of like a flash flood, except obviously dry, not wet.  A flash flood develops within minutes. A flash drought takes longer, like a few weeks to develop, instead of several months like a "traditional" drought. 

The good news is, we're not getting into any kind of drought just yet. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, issued last Thursday, does not have any corners of Vermont listed as in drought or abnormally dry yet. But, if this weather pattern continues, that might change. 

But we will if this weather pattern keeps up.  

There's no guarantees, of course. Depending on what happens in the next few weeks, we might never get to drought if the weather pattern changes. But it it doesn't, we could be looking at yet another summer drought.   

THIS WEEK

Our immediate future in Vermont is pretty dry. The forecast for at least the next week doesn't give me a lot of confidence we'll see any real rains to give us that needed drenching. 

There could be an isolated or scattered shower, especially north, this afternoon, but anybody who is lucky enough to see a shower won't see much rain out of them.  

Plus, another smoke attack from Alberta this afternoon will probably help squelch the towering clouds you need to see some scattered showers. 

Today's quick blast of wildfire smoke might be the thickest we've seen yet. Most of the smoke will be high overhead, so it will just greatly dim the sun and make it seem almost like an overcast day.  That will hold temperatures down to below what they would reach. So instead of low 70s, count on perhaps 60s. 

Unlike the smoke earlier this month, a little bit of it will make it to the surface. So, if you are especially sensitive to pollution, if you have lung problems, or a nasty case of asthma, you might consider staying inside. 

Forecasts call for two more bursts of dry, cool air coming down from Canada this week. One tonight, the other Wednesday night.  These two outbreaks won't be nearly as cold as the last one this past Wednesday and Thursday, which gave a killing freeze.

Instead, we'll have a little frost in the normally colder spots, but the rest of us should be OK. However, each burst of cool high pressure will create very low humidity and breezes, which would help dry us out more. 

The cold front that will introduce the second batch of cool air for next Thursday will probably have enough oomph to produce a few showers, but it won't be that much. 

Beyond that, there's suddenly question marks in the forecast as of this morning.  Up through yesterday, it looked like this Friday and on into the weekend will feature dry, warm weather.  Now, some of the computer models are hinting at an upper level low stalling nearby.

On the negative side, that would introduce a lot of clouds and cool temperatures for the Memorial Day weekend. On the bright side, this upper level low could generate a few needed showers. 

It's unclear if those showers next weekend, if they develop, will turn out to be worthless sprinkles or something a little more substantial. We'll wait and see on that. 

The weather pattern could also flip dramatically as we head into the summer, too.  The most notable example I could find was in 1998, which brought us a very warm and dry April through mid-May.

Then things turned much, much wetter, and by the third week of June, Vermont was experiencing destructive flash floods. That flood-prone weather pattern ended up continuing through much of the summer of 1998.

I'm not exactly hoping for another 1998. But I wouldn't complain about a reasonable amount of rain this June. 

Meteorological Winter In Vermont: A Really Mixed Bag

A wintry landscape in South Hero, Vermont during a 
chilly January, 2022.  Temperatures and precipitation
were all over the place during the winter, but if you
average it out, temperatures stay mixed, but the 
winter overall was dry in the Green Mountain State.

 Yesterday, I took a look back at February's weather in Vermont and talked about what a mixed bag it was.

Today as we look back at all of meteorological winter, and it, too reflected a muddled season. But the winter did have a theme. 

It was on the dry side, there wasn't all that much snow, and we had a lot of mid-sized, but not epic storms.  

Meteorological winter runs from December 1 through February 28.  The dates are arbitrary, designed for ease of record keeping because the include complete months. And this all makes sense, since December, January and February are the coldest months of the year. 

January, normally the coldest part of winter, was especially cold. But that frigid January was bookended by a relatively mild December and February. 

When you add it all up Vermont temperatures for meteorological winter were mixed.  Burlington came in at 1.1 degrees chillier than normal, mostly because of that frigid January. Meanwhile, the winter as a whole was 2.6 degrees warmer than average in Montpelier, and just a hair milder than normal in St. Johnsbury. 

Storms were frequent, but for the most part weren't huge around here, Especially compared to the epic atmospheric river storms in West during December, and the repeated bouts of tornadoes, floods, severe weather and winter storms in the South.

Up here in Vermont, storms often came in from the west, meaning they didn't have a great moisture supply. Or, some storms  did have a good moisture supply but passed far enough west or east of Vermont to make us avoid heavy precipitation.

The bottom line was a lot of wind, but not much snow and rain. Since those mid-sized storms seemed to spray at us from all directions, we had a lot of bouts with freezing rain, sleet and schmutz over the winter. Even when we did receive decent snows, the accumulations disappeared pretty quickly amid the brief thaws and mixed precipitation

January was especially dry, since the air flow that month came mostly from Canada, where the air is cold and dry. I mean, why do you think that brand of ginger ale is called Canada Dry?

In January Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury could not even manage an inch of rain and melted snow and ice. Burlington's January total was 0.94 inches. But since January is a relatively dry month to begin with, that wasn't one of the top ten driest Januaries on record.

Still, overall, precipitation only amounted to right around five inches for the three winter months, which is nearly an inch and a half below normal.  Montpelier's winter was a little more than two inches on the dry side, and St. Johnsbury's precipitation deficit was 1.73 inches.

This dryness translates to a lack of snow. Most of Vermont was five to 15 inches shy of normal for snowfall during meteorological winter. 

You can see this trend atop Mount Mansfield. At this point in the season, there's normally 65 inches of snow at the stake near the mountain's summit. As of Monday, the snow depth there was only 48 inches. 

February was a little wetter, as we managed to see enough storms to get us a bit above normal for precipitation in the final weeks of meteorological winter.

Although temperatures yo-yo' a lot during this just ended meteorological winter, we didn't have much in the way of record warmth or record cold. Several daily record highs were established in mid-December around the region, an a couple more were set in late February, but we didn't have any unprecedented warmth that we've had in several recent winters.

A handful of daily record lows were established in the worst of the January cold waves, but those temperatures never even came close to all time lows for the winter. 

(Almost) Relentless Cold To Shiver Your Timbers For Rest Of Month

A recent cold, dry day on frozen Lake Champlain in 
St. Albans, Vermont.  We're in a pattern of repeated Arctic
outbreaks with less precipitation than normal, and it 
looks like the pattern will extend at least through
the end of January and quite possibly beyond.

 There's a decent chance that Monday's snowstorm will be the only substantial one of the month in Vermont, but this January will be remembered for it's frigid temperatures.  

Burlington managed to receive 8.1 inches of snow Monday, enough to barely break the date's record for snowfall of 8.0 set in 1909.

Still, this was by Vermont standards a mid-sized storm, with most everyone receiving five to 10 inches of new snow.  A few spots managed to eek out a foot or even a bit more than that. 

So the storm was helpful, but we need more. We're still below normal.  Burlington is about nine inches behind what should have fallen by this time of year.  We'll probably fall further behind in the coming days because not all that much snow is in the forecast.

Instead, the unrelenting cold persists.  At least unrelenting compared to the series of mild winters we've had in recent years until now.

Today is another "wrong way" day with temperatures. We started before dawn with readings pretty close to 20 degrees, but readings will fall all day into the single numbers. Northwest winds will keep wind chills below zero. The colder parts of the region are under wind chill advisories, with "real feel" temperatures as low as 25 below. 

Get used to those wind chill alerts. We've had quite a few of them lately and we're surely in for more. 

Temperatures will dip below zero this evening.  But at least in western Vermont, we'll have  a "wrong way" night as temperatures start to actually rise after midnight again. 

Wednesday will actually be a rare balmy day. A little Alberta clipper storm from the west will throw a little light snow our way. It won't amount to much, but the warmer valleys will get into the low and mid 30s for a time.

Don't get used to it. We've been in that pattern for a couple weeks now in which one Arctic high pressure system after another crashes down from Canada and sends us into the deep freeze.

The next one should arrive Thursday with falling temperatures and another couple nights well below zero. Friday's highs should barely get above zero.

A few weather weenies have been in a tizzy over a few computer models bringing another nor'easter type storm sometime over the weekend or Monday.  I suppose it bears watching, but most indications at this point are it will go out to sea, or at least be too far east to affect Vermont much. So far, I'm not impressed, anyway. 

What looks likely is yet another reinforcing shot of Arctic air coming in to start next week. This January has a shot at being the coldest one in Vermont since 2004.  That year was the sixth coldest January on record. I'm not sure, but I don't think this January will score in the top ten coldest, as chilly as it has been. 

That depends on how intense the next few Arctic outbreaks are.

Another Vermont Drought Bummer: Very Hungry Caterpillars Defoliating Forests

A large patch of defoliated trees on a hill near my 
house in St Albans, Vermont. Gypsy moth caterpillars
are laying waste to stretches of forest in the state
this year. Dry weather is partly to blame for 'the
resurgence of this pest.

 Especially if you're in the Champlain Valley, you've probably noticed it.

Big patches of normally green hillsides are brown and leafless. Or, if you're particularly unlucky, the trees in your yard are getting devoured and caterpillars are pooping all over you if you step outside.  

They're gypsy moth caterpillars, and they're causing the biggest defoliation in Vermont since 1991.

The dry weather this year is largely to blame. So yeah, another problem created by drought or near-drought. 

A happy fungus took hold in Vermont in the early 1990s that goes after gypsy moth caterpillars, keeping them in check. If you have a succession of soggy springs and early summers, you still get those little hungry buggers, but they are reduced and number and the trees and forests stay more or less intact. 

Recent springs have been dry,  especially last year and this year, so the very hungry caterpillars have come roaring back.  

Sure, it rained early this week, which is nice, but that's far too late and too little to do much to encourage that wonderful caterpillar-killing fungus.  (The quarter inch of rain that fell on St. Albans yesterday was less than in other parts of Vermont, helping cement my town as part of the Great Champlain Valley desert).

Even worse, now that the caterpillars are back with a vengeance, they might stick around for a few years. Lots of wet weather this summer and especially next spring and the spring after that would help a lot. 

I know we like bright, sunny spring weather, but I hope spring, 2022 is just one long slog of foggy, drizzly days. 

I've got selfish reasons for that. There's a big patch of defoliated trees on the hill above my house, and it's creeping closer to my property. 

The trees around my house give me a great deal of privacy in the summer, which I love. Plus, some of the trees aren't the healthiest.

Most healthier trees can survive a season or two of defoliation, but ones that already have pre-existing issues often do not. Newly planted trees are also in danger. 

We sure picked the wrong summer to spend lots and lots of cash to plant a nice big river birch in our St Albans yard to replace the willow that blew over in a storm a couple years ago.  Despite lots of watering, it's suffering from the dry weather, and gypsy moth caterpillars love munching on river birch. Sigh. 

The gypsy moth caterpillars will wrap up their destruction  later this summer, but who knows how many years this problem will last before that wonderful fungus can gain the upper hand?

It's not just us having this problem, by the way. Parts of Ontario, Quebec, Wisconsin and New York, among other places, are having a battle royale with the caterpillars. 

If you have some prized trees, there are only a few things you can do about the problem. You can wrap burlap around the base of trees so egg masses are laid there instead of in the tree.  Then later on, you can remove the burlap and destroy the egg masses. Putting caterpillars and their egg masses into soapy water kills them. 

Experts say the Great Vermont Gypsy Moth Caterpillar Munchathon will continue for about another month before it wanes.  Those buggers will turn into moths, then regroup to torture us next year. 

That's One Impressive Anti-Rain Shield Vermont Seems To Have

This clump of daffodils seemed happy enough in my
 St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning, but the soil
beneath them is awfully dry, at least by April standards

As gorgeous as the weather has been here in Vermont lately, we still need the rain.  

And we aren't going to get it. 

The weather patterns have been doing some impressive twists, turns and somersaults to prevent  rain from reaching the Green Mountain State. Heck, will haboobs and sand dunes be next?

I stirred up an impressive amount of dust yesterday cleaning up gardens, something that really shouldn't happen in normally muddy April. 

The air Thursday was bone dry under wall-to-wall sunshine.  Burlington managed to tie the record high for the date of 73 degrees.

St. Johnsbury reached 72 degrees, breaking their previous high temperature record for the date of 67 degrees. More record highs could be challenged today in Vermont as sunshine and very dry air remain in place.

Very little rain is the the forecast, as there almost seems to be an anti-rain force field blocking precipitation. 

By Saturday night and Sunday, a fairly impressive band of rain will be approaching from the southwest.  It might actually get as far as the western Adirondacks and far southern Vermont and deposit a modest, but decent amount of rain there. 

But high pressure to the north with its really dry air will block this rain.  Oh, it might sprinkle, mist, get cloudy, shower briefly later Sunday, but it won't amount to anything, really for most of us. There's always a chance we could get a surprise and the rain will push further into Vermont than forecast, but don't hold your breath. 

This really has been the pattern since mid-February, where weather systems align themselves just perfectly so that almost all storms take a detour away from Vermont, the rest of northern New England and parts of southern Quebec.

An example: In Burlington, there have been only two days with rain or melted snow amounting to more than half an inch. We've had no such days since February 16. 

We've had only two days so far.  And Burlington has had only four days since that February 16 storm with more than a tenth of an inch of rain.

Forecasts aren't encouraging.  After that miss with the rain Sunday, we face more misses from storms.  Next week, temperatures will trend downward toward more seasonal levels instead of this pleasant but dry June-like stuff we're seeing now. 

A storm will stall out in the Great Lakes and die.  A series of new storms will erupt over the Atlantic Ocean, much too far to our east, then move northeastward off the Canadian Maritime provinces. This will ensure a continued mostly northwest, dry air flow over us, and keep any nice, wet storm systems well to our south.  

Extended forecasts give us a glimmer of hope with perhaps a chance of above normal precipitation in the third week of the month.  But I saw several forecasts like that for most of March, and none of them panned out. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor as of Thursday still had Vermont in either moderate drought or the abnormally dry category.  But it looks to me like we will sink into the more dangerous severe drought category very soon. 

That will have implications for crops, and wells and fire danger through the spring and summer. Unless, that is, we flip to a wetter weather pattern that lasts for months. Miracles can happen, but it may be time for many of us to start reducing our water usage to preserve what we have. 

How Dry I Am: March Could Be Near Record Dry In Vermont

Last year's dry brush near my house in St. Albans, Vermont.
Once the snow is completely gone, this type of dry
material can be a brush fire risk if we continue 
to have a dry spring 

So far this month, Burlington, Vermont has had just 0.12 inches of precipitation.  On this pace, we could have one of the driest Marches on record. 

The driest March on record produced just 0.22 inches of rain in 1915.  The tenth driest March had 0.90 in 2015.  

With just 0.12 inches in Burlington so far this March, we have a strong chance of being among the driest.  A normal March would have given Burlington a little under an inch of rain and melted snow by now. 

A super dry March is still far from guaranteed, of course. One mid-sized, run of the mill storm by March 31 could change this trend. But so far, things look oddly dry for the Green Mountain State.

The weather pattern since February, really, has been some really, really wet storms crossing the nation, but pretty far south. Too far south to give us much snow or rain. 

It's gotten worse in March as these storms have gotten even wetter, but more insistent on passing by well south of Vermont. 

These storms are responsible for serious flooding in Kentucky earlier this month and in Missouri the past couple of days. Another one of these storms is causing an epic snowstorm today in Colorado and Wyoming today, and yet another will create a risk of severe weather and tornadoes in the South midweek, and maybe some flooding in the central Plains. 

For us, repeated high pressure systems from Canada have shunted the storms through the Southeast and out to sea.

We get the yo-yoing temperatures out of these high pressure systems.  We had winter cold, then record warmth this month. Now, an Arctic high pressure system will bring us bitter cold this afternoon through Tuesday morning. That will be followed by another warmup - not as big as the last one - then a cool down, another warmup, rinse and repeat. 

Cold fronts introduce each new high pressure system, but with deep moisture pushed south, the cold fronts can only produce a piddling amount of rain or snow. Snow showers will blossom today, for instance, but everybody except the spine of the northern Green Mountains will get less than a tenth of an inch of melted precipitation. 

This dry trend, as I mentioned before is not good news. Before March even started, Vermont was already either in drought or abnormally dry.  This isn't helping.  

We should hope the end of the month and April turn wet for a couple of reasons. One, we need to start overcoming the rainfall deficit for summer, when drought can really put pressure on wells, stream flows and agriculture. 

Another more immediate problem is brush and wildfires. Early spring is peak season for that type of thing. 

In late March and April, the woods and fields haven't started to green up yet.   There's all that dead, brown and dry stuff from last year. With no leaves on the trees to block the sun, high in the sky by now, the woods can really dry out fast.  

This could be a recipe for a rough brush fire season.  We don't have anything like the wildfires of California, but here, you never know when an out of control brush fire can spread to a barn or houses. 

The whole Northeast is dry, and right now we're getting a foretaste of the kinds of fires we can get in Vermont later. There have been numerous brush fires from southern New England to the Mid-Atlantic States.

Today, Sunday, a windy day in the Northeast, there's a very high chance of brush fires in southern New England down to Maryland.

Here in Vermont, there's still some snow on the ground and we're getting light snow showers, so fire danger is still decidedly low here, for now. 

Weather forecasts are not encouraging. Things could change, but long range forecasts don't indicate any major signs of a big, wet storms in our future for the next couple of weeks. 

All the sunshine we've been getting has been lovely. But I'm starting to get into the mood for some rainy, dreary spring days.