California Rain Benefitted Greatly, But Not All That Much Rain Set Off Burn Area Debris Flows

To virtually everyone's relief in southern California, 
rain arrived as expected to tamp down those horrible
wildfires. The fires left the area prone to debris flow
in the rain, though, and some did in fact materialize.

 After going 262 days without any rain, showers finally blew through Los Angeles Sunday. 

The showers -which included small hail in some sections of the city and snow in the mountains - was a tremendous relief to everyone dealing with this month's wildfire nightmare in southern California. 

Though greatly beneficial, the rain, as expected in some ways continued the wildfire nightmare for some.

The rain storm hasn't been that big by southern California standards. Los Angeles just under an inch of rain from the weekend system. It was the first real rain the city has had since March 20.  

With the fires, that was enough to set off mudslides. One of the largest was in Topanga Canyon near the site of the big Palisades fire. 

Another mudslide poured down onto Mulholland Drive in Woodland Hills, trapping at least four vehicles in muck and rocks. A Los Angeles city fire truck also had to be pulled from the morass. 

This particular mudslide thankfully didn't damage any homes. 

A small section of the Pacific Coast Highway also had to be shut down due to mud and debris pouring onto the roadway. 

The rain obviously tamped down the fire and finally prevented new ones from starting, at least for now. The largest fires from this month are now almost entirely contained and are just barely smoldering in the damp conditions. 

Extended forecasts call for a few more chance of rain over the next couple of weeks.  Those extended forecasts lean slightly toward above normal precipitation in central and northern California and near normal in still much to dry southern California. 

Video

News station aerial view of one of the mudslides due to fire-denuded hills and the rain over the weekend. Click on this link to view, or of you see the image below, click on that

Vermont Rain Shuts Off For Now, And Heat Will Build. How Long Will Rain Stay Away?

Water beaded up on hosta leaves this
morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
Gardens and crops got a nice 
drink of water in the past week or so.

Saturday's anticipated heavy rainfall turned out to be more variable than I thought it would be across the state.  

Early reports indicate parts of eastern Vermont got swamped, while the Champlain Valley's rain totals were a little disappointing. 

Rainfall reports in the 24 hours ending 7 a.m. Sunday show plenty of towns mostly in eastern Vermont received more than an inch of rain. And that doesn't include the rain that fell late Friday night and before dawn Saturday. Western Vermont had more than a half inch of rain since 7 a.m. Saturday. 

We have a report of at least 2.9 inches of rain Saturday from Hartland, Vermont.  Across the river in New Hampshire, flash flood warnings were in effect for a time Saturday in and near Lebanon.  However, I haven't seen any reports of any real flooding from Vermont. 

The moisture stream came from the east, and I think the Green Mountains blocked some of the moisture from reaching the Champlain Valley. This is a common occurrence with snow during winter nor'easters, so I shouldn't be that surprised. 

Burlington received about 0.6 inches of rain from this episode, falling short of the inch or so that was in the forecast. Still, over the course of five days, Burlington got just a smidge under two inches of rain, so the wetting was still pretty good - and needed. 

Video of the nice, rainy Saturday is at the bottom of this post. Looks like the flowers and trees were really enjoying the drink from the skies. 

The rains put us in a good position to survive the upcoming week, because the rain is once again shutting off for awhile. 

Clouds, sprinkles and cool temperatures today will minimize evaporation, but the rest of the week looks quite dry, sunny and increasingly warm. The only rain in the forecast is for very isolated showers Monday and Tuesday, but I imagine 90 percent of us won't see any rain at all. 

Early guesses are this dry spell won't last as long as the one that caused some drought conditions to develop in parts of Vermont during May and early June. 

At this point, it's beginning to look like humid air will start to set off some showers and thunderstorms as soon as Saturday and probably continuing Sunday and probably beyond. You might have to irrigate gardens by the end of the week, but it probably won't be a long haul. 

The end of the week will probably be uncomfortable as well, as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 80s and humidity starts to creep up at little Thursday, then really take hold on Friday. 

Fingers crossed, we might, maybe have cut off what was an incipient drought.

Video: Gardens and trees around St. Albans, Vermont have a glorious drink of water on a rainy Saturday. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

More Needed Rain Coming To Vermont. And A Weird Severe Storm Outbreak In U.S. South

Satellite photo from this morning clearly shows
clouds from upper level storm in the eastern
Great Lakes that will move east, giving
us here in Vermont numerous showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

 The weather gods overcame my cynicism that we could finally get a decent rainfall Vermont yesterday. 

Pretty much everybody in Vermont saw a half inch to an inch of rain with several places weighing in with over an inch. 

That helps the drought situation, but doesn't solve it.  Digging in my garden soil last evening, I still encountered dusty conditions a couple inches down in some spots. But we'll take progress!

Apparently, more rain is also coming, despite the bright blue skies you saw in many areas this morning. 

Overall, another half inch to an inch of rain seems pretty possible in much of Vermont through Friday, with some locations seeing up to 1.5 inches during that period. 

The rainfall today through Friday will be more of the shower and thunderstorm type variety, so there will be the inevitable winners and losers. Some of us will get a great deal of rain. Some of us might end up in the "meh" category.

A strong upper level low will be responsible for today's showers and storms. It looks like southern Vermont might see the heaviest rain, but pretty much all of us should get something. Upper lows like this dramatically cool the upper atmosphere. 

That means some of the strongest storms might have some small hail and gusty winds. Although there might be an isolated report or two by the end of the day of severe weather, don't bank on it. This won't be anything especially scary. Mostly just beneficial. 

The real scary stuff will happen today in the Deep South. More on that in a minute. 

Thursday will feature more afternoon shower and storms, but they won't be as widespread as they are forecast to be this afternoon and evening. 

If current forecasts hold, the showers and a few thunderstorms will become somewhat more widespread again Friday and Saturday.  After that, we'll tend to start drying out, though scattered showers are still in the forecast for Sunday through next Tuesday.]

DEEP SOUTH STORM DANGER

Well, this is a weird little development.

A rare for the season severe thunderstorm and 
tornado outbreak is forecast in the red and
orange areas of this map across 
the Deep South today. 

Widespread severe storm and tornado outbreaks are common in the Deep South in the winter into early to mid spring. By May, the jet stream moves north into the central and northern United States and southern Canada. 

The jet stream helps power big storm outbreaks. So when the jet stream moves north, say goodbye to Southern tornado swarms for the season. 

 Lots of thunderstorms continue to hit the humid South over the summer, but they are just those pop up things. Some of those late spring and summer southern storms can be severe, but those are isolated cases.

Which brings us today's odd forecast.

A big outbreak of severe storms, with strong straight line winds, giant hail, and tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, are forecast to hit a zone in the Deep South from extreme eastern Texas all the way to the Georgia coastline. 

Forecasters are even talking about the possibility of a derecho in that region later today. A derecho is a long lasting, fast moving cluster of intense thunderstorms. To qualify as a derecho, the system needs to travel at least 240 miles, frequently sending wind gusts to over 58 mph along its path. 

Derechos are usually very destructive. Just ask anyone in Iowa that was hit by one in August, 2020, which turned out to be the most costly thunderstorm in U.S. history.   Or people in southern Ontario and Quebec that experienced one in May, 2022 that killed 10 people and was among the most expensive weather disasters in modern Canadian history.

Derechos are kind of infrequent, maybe happening only five or fewer times per year in the United States. You'll sometimes find them in the Midwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast and southern Canada during the summer months.  (We can get them here in Vermont, too, but they're quite rare).

The potential destructive day in the South follows three days of severe storms that have already raked an area from Texas to the southern Appalachians.  Hail the size of baseballs or large hit communities in the Dallas-Fort Worth area for three days in a row starting Saturday. 

 I bet those hail storms in Texas caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. This overall southern storm outbreak will almost certainly rank as yet another $1 billion or more dollar disaster for the U.S. 

The culprit in all this is that jet stream.  It didn't get the memo to move north, so it's racing over the South, helping to fuel these intense storms. The very humid air that is normal in the South this time of year is working with those strong high level winds to create this dangerous situation. 

The Southern storms aren't heading north, though. As noted, we up here in Vermont will see thunderstorm from our own, separate storm, but nothing destructive is expected. Bring on those New England rains!