If Things Work Out, We Could Actually Have A Rather Rainy Week In Vermont. We need It.

Somewhat ominous skies greeted early risers over St.
Albans, Vermont this morning. If forecasts are correct.
we could have a week of badly needed off and on
rain over the next several days. 

We got through another gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, with our blue skies and a few puffy clouds in the skies. I savored the gorgeous end of August weather. 

The signs of autumn keep hitting though. This time of year, some of the leaves on the trees are looking tired and ragged after a long summer of insects, wind, dry spells and hot days. 

Also, with a high temperature of 77 degrees and a low of 50, the average temperature in Burlington Saturday was 63.5 making it coolest day since June 7.

As nice as Saturday was, we could use the rain and the National Weather Service is offering hope for a potentially wet week across Vermont. 

The NWS office in South Burlington has at least a chance of showers each day today through next Saturday, except maybe tomorrow.

 It's unclear how much rain we'll actually get. We could use a lot of rain, and we might get that. Then again, at least parts of Vermont might not get all that much. It all depends on the path of several weather disturbances this week zipping northwest to southeast across New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Current forecasts give a half inch to an inch of rain today through Wednesday morning across most of the Green Mountain State, with more coming after that. NOAA has Vermont receiving one to two inches of rain over the next seven days. 

Those predictions often shift dramatically, so we can't guarantee we'll actually get that much rain. 

If this forecast plays out, it could blunt a developing drought in  northern Vermont and give a much needed rain in southern Vermont, which is still drought-free, for now. 

Let's get into the detailed forecast like we do almost every day. 

TODAY

A  few showers have already skittered across northern Vermont this morning and more is on the way. I don't think today will be as decent a day as first thought especially in northern Vermont. There's a chance of showers almost everywhere in Vermont. Showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder are more likely in northern Vermont. 

The forecast for today has become a little more dismal because moisture in the atmosphere all the way from the Pacific Ocean has made it to an area just south of an approaching cold front in Quebec.  Highs today will reach the 70s.

Not everybody in the north will get wet, but many areas will. The showers will taper off after sunset as the cold front slips quietly south through Vermont. 

MONDAY

The front should sag south and west of Vermont and oriented in a northwest to southeast orientation. The front should still be far enough south and west so that we should be out of the rain. The sun should come out, especially in central and northern Vermont. We should see highs in the 70s again. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

The front to out south and west will mark the battle line between coolish air in Quebec and horribly humid and very warm air in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. The cool-ish air should win out here in Vermont, though it won't exactly be cold. Daily highs should be in the 70s, close to normal for this time of year.

The front will slowly approach Vermont. Nobody is really sure how fast it will come at us. Meanwhile, disturbances will ride northwest to southeast along the front, carrying batches of rain on the north side of the front, and thunderstorms to the south. 

The position of the front will dictate where and when it rains in Vermont and how much. It's too soon to pick out exactly how this will play out. However, so far at least, it looks like the front will stay near or southwest of Vermont. 

That means potential severe thunderstorms should stay mostly in the Ohio Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic states.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Another front from the west should begin to sweep everything to the east. As it does so, we'll probably keep up with the rain and showers. 

I'm not sure how fast this thing will clear Vermont, so showers could continue Friday and maybe into Saturday. 

Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms In Vermont Today, First Big T-Storm Day of The Year Possible

There's a level two out of five threat of severe 
thunderstorms in yellow shading. That includes
southern Vermont, eastern New York and southwest
New England. There's an even greater chance of 
severe storms in parts of the Upper Midwest today. 

You know it's spring because we in Vermont have our first threat of severe thunderstorms of the season today. 

A few areas in the Green Mountain State could see strong to damaging wind gusts in a few of the storms that could form today. 

The best chances of a severe storm are south of a line from Saranac Lake, New York to Lebanon, New Hampshire, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us.  

That's basically along and south of Route 4 with the risk getting into the southern Champlain Valley as well. The risk in this area is level 2 out of 5 point scale. 

All of the rest of Vermont except maybe the extreme northeast tip has a quite low, but not zero chance of an isolated thunderstorms with potentially damaging winds. 

The culprit is a cluster of thunderstorms in the central and eastern Great Lakes early this morning. They're the leftovers of severe weather that sent a few tornadoes swirling through northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin yesterday. 

During the heat of the day, as these storms approach us in northern New England, they might strengthen again. Not nearly enough to give us a round of tornadoes like in the Midwest, but give us the risk of strong winds. 

A "NOWCAST" DAY

The National Weather Service is calling this a "nowcast day." There are so many moving parts that have to line up, or not line up to produce our thunderstorms. And determine how rambunctious they'll get. And where they'll hit.

We won't really know for sure how this is going until things start to bubble this afternoon. Especially going to spend the day outside, you'll want to have a way to hear special weather statements, forecast updates and possibly severe thunderstorms watches or warnings. 

Remember, a watch means maybe. Think of it is as your mother calmly calling you in,  using your nickname. A warning means a severe thunderstorm is coming. That's your mother, angry, urgent, using your full name to get yourself inside. "JOHN MATTHEW SUTKOSKI, GET YOUR ASS IN THE HOUSE NOW OR YOU'LL REALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO BE SORRY FOR!!!!"

Ahem.

Anyway. back to those factors that will go into today's storms. 

One factor is sunshine. Sun heats the atmosphere, to be Captain Obvious here, and that make the air more unstable and leaves more energy for vigorous thunderstorms. We don't know exactly how much clearing we'll get so we'll have to wait and see. As of 8 a.m. today, the clouds were pretty thick across Vermont. It's a wait and see game to determine whether it will clear out at all. 

Early guesses are the best shot of any clearing later this morning and afternoon is along and south of Route 4, which  is one reason why the better chance of strong storms is down in that neck of the woods.

Also, high clouds blowing off the existing storms early this morning in the Great Lakes could race eastward, covering our neck of the woods and maybe suppressing the chances of strong storms. That's another wait and see situation right there. 

Another factor is timing. The models try to develop showers and storms in northern New York early this afternoon. Some of those models bring the shower and storms into Vermont early to mid-afternoon. If that happens, they won't have as much time to develop and won't necessarily be as strong. 

Other models bring the storms in late this afternoon, when they're more likely to be stronger. To complicate things further, the storms might or might not come through in one line. There might be several short lines of storms in various places, or clusters of them, or even isolated ones here and there. 

Upper level winds are stronger north.  If the winds are stronger up above, storms have a better shot of bringing those strong winds down to the surface. So, things aren't lining up perfectly. The best instability is south, but the best winds for strong thunderstorms are north. 

It still does look like upper level winds in southern Vermont are sufficiently strong to at least create seen risk of damaging thunderstorms. 

Here's something else I have to throw in: We have a sort of east to west weather front draped over Vermont or at least nearby in extreme southern Quebec today. You really have to watch weather fronts that are oriented that way. Especially in the spring. You get surprises sometimes from these lazy, sneaky fronts making their fainting couch the Canadian border. 

We'll see a large temperature contrast today in Vermont because of that front. Up along the Canadian border, forecast highs are around 60 degrees. That goes up to 70 by the time you get to Montpelier, low 70s in Rutland and upper 70s in Brattleboro.

The temperature contract could help strengthen storms. At least the ones in the warmer air to the south.

That front also makes it slightly possible we might get one or two storms to start rotating, maybe creating a sort of mini-supercell or two.  I know we equate spinning storms with tornadoes. And there actually is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup today.  Even if a storm is spinning but does not produce a twister, it would tend to be more severe than one that is not spinning

Finally, you might have questions about flooding. Rivers are running sort of high. The ground is pretty squishy, especially where the frost hasn't entirely thawed from the soil yet. Northern Vermont in particular has gotten some rain in the past couple days. 

That will have people asking about flooding. I think we're good in that regard. It's true that some of these storms - if they do come into the state - will pack some pretty torrential downpours. A couple of these downpours might even get a couple small streams out of their banks or erode the edged so some gravel roads. Especially since the soil is so soft this time of year. 

The storms - again if they develop - will be moving right along, so torrential rain won't last long in any one place. Which really reduces the chances of flooding. In general, most of us would receive a safe half inch or so of rain today, give or take. Places that get really bullseyed by more than one storm could get up0 to an inch. 

However, so far at least, it looks like we won't have any real problems with that. But the very low but not zero flooding risk is another reason to pay attention to today's "nowcast" weather updates. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The unsettled, mild to warm weather will continue into the weekend, but we have big changes coming after that. 

Making it seem like summer, showers and possible thunderstorms - most likely in the afternoons and evenings - are a good bet each day Wednesday through Friday. No word yet on whether any of those storms will be strong. It's another thing we'll need to wait for details on.

A strong cold front Sunday will knock us back down to early spring reality.  Forecasts call for highs in the 40s by next Monday.