Not Necessarily "Nice" Vermont Weather In The Traditional Sense, But We Need The Rain And Gloom

After a long winter of snow prediction maps, it's nice to
post rain prediction maps. If this is accurate, most of us
should see an inch of rain by the end of the day Friday.

The Vermont weather forecast for today and tomorrow is great for people who prefer to stay indoors anyway. But not so much for those who like to spend time out in their gardens. 

But those gardens need drinks of water and those should get a Big Gulp serving today and tomorrow. 

For now anyway, the predicted amount of rain is pretty generous. This morning through Friday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an inch of rain, give or take for most of Vermont. 

The Northeast Kingdom will probably get a little less than that. Some spots in central Vermont could close in on an inch and a half.

Of course, I'm sort of counting those proverbial chickens before they hatch. The arrangement of little storms and moisture flows over the next couple of days is touch and go and a little uncertain, so a lot can go wrong to cheat us out of a soaking rain. 

But if this rainy spell turns out as expected, we'l come closer to normal rainfall for this point in the season. 

Vermont still has a bit of a hangover from last year's drought. And precipitation so far this year is just meh, coming up short in most of the state. 

Through yesterday, May 12, Burlington has had 1.13 inches less precipitation than normal. That's not a drought, but it's definitely not sopping wet, either. Montpelier was 1.62 inches behind schedule in the rain department for the year so far. 

Rutland is even worse, running 2.3 inches under what we should have gotten up to this point in the year. North Springfield, an area of the state that is still official in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, is short 4.36 inches of rain as of yesterday. 

Only the southwest and northeast corners of Vermont are closer to normal. St. Johnsbury as of yesterday was within a quarter inch or so of normal. Bennington was short by only about two thirds of an inch. 

The expected rain this week will narrow, but not erase the precipitation gap. 

Let's do the details:

TODAY: 

It dawned cloudy today, as expected. It was still a little frosty early this morning in eastern Vermont, but not anything particularly damaging to crops and gardens. 

It was in the 40s in the Champlain Valley. This might be a spoiler to the extended forecast, but - unless there's some real surprises in our future - I think the Champlain Valley's threat of frost has passed until this coming fall. The rest of Vermont, well, just hang in there. 

Rain was moving into Vermont as we approached the 9 a.m. hour. It looked like rain was coming down a pretty good clip in New York state, but I think it might lighten up a little once it embraces the Green Mountain State. 

Still, it''ll be a rainy, chilly day. Highs should only get into the 50s. We'll probably get a quarter inch of rain, maybe a little less in spots. The rain will tend to diminish this evening and early tonight. At least temporarily. 

TOMORROW

Also looking rainy. But there will be a bit of dance going on between the decaying upper level low that is now coming in from the west, a small storm we think will develop in southern New England tomorrow, and a stronger storm well offshore. 

But the thinking is that weird atmospheric dance should shove some Atlantic moisture northwestward to us here in Vermont, giving a continued soaking rain. The rain should be even heavier in eastern New England, but I don't expect anybody in the region to see any flooding. Just a good soaking. Again, fingers crossed.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Ahhh the warmth arrives. Friday should show slow improvement, as clouds and maybe morning showers should give way to some sun, especially north and west. It should get into the 60s, so not too bad!

And then, a warm weekend! Yes, that means highs right up there in the 70s. Balmy! almost summer-like, aside from the cool but not cold nights. And spoiler: Some forecasts bring us into the 80s by Tuesday. 

In other words, we get a nice reward after the chilly, rainy weather we're in for. 

 

Frigid Vermont Weekend, But Some Parts Get Drought Relief. Snow, Too!

Traffic cam from relatively high elevation Searsburg in 
southern Vermont fortunately shows rain, not snow, but
it's going to be a remarkably chilly, damp weekend 
and Memorial Day, especially in the southern 
half of the state

UPDATE:

While it's nice and sunny this morning way up where I am in St. Albans, Vermont, I can confirm snow HAS fallen on parts of Vermont. 

It was nearing 60 degrees by mid morning in St. Albans. It's actually turning into a nicer, warmer day than first though in the northwest corner of the state.

But web cam images from the summit of Stratton Mountain, in southern Vermont, showed snow falling this morning and a slushy accumulation on the ground. 

Mid-mountain cams showed a slushy coating on the ground at Stratton at 2,275 feet of elevation. Just before 11 a.m., it was snowing pretty hard and it looked like there was at least a couple inches of snow on the ground at the Stratton summit, at 3,875 feet above sea level

Video by @VermonsterWx  on Twitter showed snow flakes mixing with the raindrops this morning at his high elevation home not far from Readsboro.

Awfully late for snow in Vermont even at high elevations, but not unprecedented. 

On May 25-26 2013, a whopping two feet of snow piled up on Whiteface Mountain, New York and Jay Peak, Vermont got 18 inches. Elevations of just 900 to 1,800 feet above sea level got two to six inches of snow in that episode.

Nothing nearly like that is in store with this episode. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Boy, the Vermont forecast for the rest of the weekend just keeps going downhill, especially those who like warm sunshine. 

On the bright side, some parts of the state are now in for some drought relief. 

Screen grab from live video atop Stratton Mountain, Vermont
shows a full-blown snowstorm in progress shortly 
before 11 a.m. today. 

A few days ago, the outlook for this weekend was lots of sunshine and cool temperatures. Good for the mood, but the then-anticipated super dry air would make the drought worse and the forest fire danger rise. 

Now, nearly stalled storms in the upper atmosphere and near the surface are bringing clouds, very cold weather for this time of year and rain to at least parts of Vermont and surrounding areas.

The veil of high clouds over northern Vermont prompted a spectacular sunset last evening, but that's basically it for brightness for the rest of the weekend. 

In northern Vermont, there actually be an OK amount of sun today, and it will be a really a nice enogh day. 

With the sun peaking through, we'll manage highs north of Route 2 in the low 60s.  That's still cool for this time of year, but still ten degrees warmer than yesterday and far better than what's going on in southern Vermont. 

There, clouds will hang pretty tough today.  In some mid and high elevation along and south of Route 4, temperatures didn't make it past the upper 40s yesterday afternoon and won't crack 50 degrees until Monday at the earliest.

That's almost as bad for sensitive garden plants as frost. Tomatoes, cucumbers and the like crave sunshine, warmth and humidity, so this weather will stunt things for awhile. On the bright side, earlier forecasts of frosty mornings this weekend are now off the table.  

Rain will move south to north across Vermont on Sunday, with the day being a miserable washout in the south. 

The rain, or the risk of it, anyway, will continue Sunday night and well into Monday.  It looks like southern and eastern Vermont will get a nice, slow batch of soaking rain, maybe up to an inch or more of it in some spots 

This slow, gradual rain is better for drought busting that harsh, quick downpours, which tend to run off and not soak into the ground. 

It seems like northwestern Vermont, where I live, might well be screwed out of this needed rain once again. There's still a lot of questions as to how much rain will make it into the northern Champlain Valley, but early indications are not much.  We could get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, which isn't really helpful. 

There's still some hope some of the good rains will push a little further northwest. Let's hope so 

Earlier forecasts had said Monday would turn brighter and warmer, but no. Turns out we'll still be stuck under thick clouds and unseasonably cold daytime readings. Highs will be in the 50s Monday instead of the normal low to mid 70s we get this time of  year. 

The slow moving storminess might even delay the expected real warmup that was to have begun in earnest on Tuesday.  Still, the end of the week does look much more seasonable.  Shower chances ramp up late in the week, too, giving a little hope for needed rain in northwestern Vermont, and perhaps a little more drought-busting rain to the southern part of the Green Mountain State.