No Hurricane Helene In Vermont, But Surprisingly Drenching Rain Beginning

Clouds streaming into the skies over Lake Champlain
near Burlington, Vermont Tuesday evening heralded
our current brief but needed spell of wet weather.

It almost seemed odd this morning. 

I awoke to a dark and rainy and dreary start to the day here in Vermont, something we haven't seen in a long, long time. 

At least as recorded in Burlington, a 16 day streak with no measurable precipitation has come to end. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington ranks this as the 20th longest dry streak in records dating back to the 1880s.

The longest dry streak, for those of you keeping track, is 52 days from April 9 to June 6, 1903. 

Now, we're in a wet spell, and forecasters have greatly increased the amount of rain we'll get out of this. A few days ago, I thought this week's rain would only amount to maybe half inch or less. Now, we're expected a total of one to two inches through tomorrow, with locally higher amounts.

This, without any moisture assistance from soon-to-be Hurricane Helene, which still looks like it won't have much of an effect on us here in the Green Mountain State.

PROGRAM NOTE: I'll have a separate post on Helene later this morning. There's a LOT to talk about with Helene, and unfortunately it's pretty much all really bad news. 

For now, on to Vermont's blissfully wet situation. Unlike in the Helene zone of the southeastern United States, the rain coming to the Green Mountain State will do far more good than harm. 

TODAY

An initial cluster of rain and shower has been moving Vermont this morning, with central and northern Vermont seeing the most.  I am a little surprised by amounts of around a third of an inch so far. I anticipated some lighter stuff today.

The rain was beginning to move on, so we'll have a drier break later this morning and much of this afternoon. By "drier" I mean little or no rain during that period. But it still will be cloudy, kind of raw and breezy, with the most wind in the Champlain Valley. 

This will belated be the first truly chilly autumn day, with highs only within a few degrees of 60, all made to feel cooler by the clouds and winds. It's not at all unusual to have this kind of weather in late September. The lowest high temperature on record on this date in Burlington is 48 back in 1925, so we're not anywhere near the realm of true autumn cold.

Plus, we have more pretty warm weather on the way

Before we get there, the rain will move back in tonight. 

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING

That high pressure system in southeast Canada that's been helping to keep us dry for so long is helping to play a part in making this new storm wetter than perhaps some of us originally thought. 

This forecast map from the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington shows the vast majority of us seeing 
a nice one to two inch rain soaker today, tomorrow.

The air flow between that and an approaching front from the Great Lakes is bringing quite a bit of atmospheric moisture our way from the warm Atlantic waters off the Mid-Atlantic and southeast coast.

The front and all that moisture will unleash drenching rains, with a few embedded downpours and maybe even a rumble of thunder overnight and the first half of Thursday. 

That's when most of the one to two inches of rain will fall.  Some places that really get bullseyed by the heaviest showers could manage a good 2.5 inches of rain. 

Aside from some ponding of water on a few roads, this rain will not cause any flooding. It's been so dry that the rain will soak into the ground nicely.  You might see river levels rise slightly tomorrow, but they will stay well within the range of normal stream flow for autumn. 

LATER THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The real rains will shut off as the front passes through by afternoon, but there could be some lingering showers around. Maybe even a couple weak, isolated thunderstorms. It will be seasonably mild - well into the 60s by afternoon. 

That high pressure that's been so persistent over southeastern Canada this month will re-assert itself, giving us yet another stretch of generally sunny, mild weather Friday through probably next Tuesday.  Highs each day will reach or get a little over 70 most places, with lows staying far, far above any frost dangers.

HELENE

As mentioned, so far, it looks like the only effects Vermont. These things often throw off a huge expanse of high, thin clouds far and wide, and we might see some of that toward Friday and the weekend, but it won't diminish how pleasant the weather will be.

Lingering moisture from Helene might make an expected cold front next Wednesday a bit wetter than it otherwise would be, but we won't have any huge amounts of rain from that. 

No Drought Worries Yet In Vermont As Long Dry Spell Continues

For the first time this year, the grass on parts of my yard
in St. Albans, Vermont is getting brown thanks to a long
dry spell. You can also see a hose leading past the frame
to the raised beds down the hill.

 In almost the entire state of Vermont, it's now been a week and a half without a drop of rain. 

You've probably had to water any lingering plants  you want to preserve into the autumn. 

For the first time this year, I've noticed a few brown or at least brownish areas on some lawns, including a few spots on mine here in St. Albans. 

The lack of rain is still absolutely nothing to worry about, unless this goes on for weeks or months. Which I doubt will happen. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor, which comes out every Thursday, still doesn't show any drought in the Green Mountain State. 

The drought monitor has a five-point scale to describe levels of dryness in an area. The lowest level is "abnormally dry," which isn't quite drought but indicates an area that is at risk for one. 

Then the scale goes upward to moderate drought, then "severe", "extreme" and the worst cast scenario "exceptional."

This dry spell has had the "abnormally dry" category beginning to take shape and expand in parts of New England. About 25 percent of  both Maine and New Hampshire is abnormally dry. 

For the first time this year, a tiny sliver of Vermont is now "abnormally dry" according to the newest U.S. Drought Monitor released yesterday. 

That "abnormally dry" area encompasses just 0.72 percent of Vermont. It's just a tiny area around White River Junction.  At the start of summer, in June, about half of the Green Mountain State was abnormally dry, but that quickly went down to zero with our exceptionally wet summer. 

Just a teeny, tiny sliver of Vermont (in yellow) is now
considered "abnormally dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Rainfall for the year overall is still ahead of average. As of Thursday, Burlington has still had 2.58 inches more rain than usual for the year up to this point. Montpelier is running about 3.5 inches ahead of normal for the year so far.   

With a continued lack of rain in the forecast for the next few days, I think next week's U.S. Drought Monitor will expand the "abnormally dry" category in Vermont, we'll wait and see on that. 

Under the "abnormally dry" category, lawns start to turn brown, gardens wilt and the fire danger becomes elevated. 

Already, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says the southern half of Vermont has a high fire risk.  The rest of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom has a moderate fire risk. 

I'd be careful with those late season camp fires. 

We might actually get a sprinkle in one or two spots today and Saturday, but that won't amount to anything. The vast majority of us will stay dry. 

There are signs of a change in the weather pattern that would bring somewhat wetter conditions to Vermont starting the middle of next week. So far at least, I'm not super impressed by how much rain those models are indicating. 

But it's a long way off, so I can't really say whether we'll get a good soaker in about a week, or just more spritzes and sprinklers. 

Major Flood In NYC; Storm Brings Brief Interruption To Long Dry Spell In Southern Vermont, North Stays Dry

A small area of the Northeast, especially in
red on this map, is subject to flash flooding
today. Unfortunately, it's in the most
densely populated area of the nation, so
the flooding effects will be amplified. 

 UPDATE 12:30 PM FRIDAY

That "weird" storm I described this morning, (see previous discussion below) is really over-performing and causing havoc in the New York City region.

News reports and social media show widespread, serious flooding in that area.  Traffic is at a standstill, and probably thousands of buildings by now have suffered flood damage. 

Terminal A at LaGuardia Airport at last report was entirely flooded and closed. 

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams have declared a state of emergency for the city.

Some areas around Brooklyn and Queens had received up to seven inches of rain this morning.  Another few inches seem likely this afternoon, which will worsen the already extreme flooding. 

Central Park received just a tad under two inches of rain in just one hour this morning. 

The flash flooding is extending up the Hudson River Valley and into New Jersey and Connecticut. 

Even though not a huge area of the nation is affected, the flood zone is so densely populated that I expect this will be yet another $1 billion plus weather disaster for the U.S.

Since the storm is overperforming, it's thrown rain as far north as central Vermont.  The rain is light and won't cause any issues here. The moisture is running into a buzzsaw of very dry air from Quebec. Recent radar trends show the northward progress of the rain stopping a little north of Route 4 because of that dry air. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A weird storm is affecting parts of the Northeast, and much like Tropical Storm Ophelia last week, we in Vermont will stay on its northern fringes.  

This new storm is not a tropical system, but it is a wet one.  The bullseye is the New York City area and surrounding areas, including much of Connecticut and New Jersey. 

Already, flash flood warnings were up early this morning in parts of the NYC metro area, and that will continue much of the day. Some areas could get up to five inches of rain. 

Only a relatively small area is under the gun for flash flooding today, but it happens to be pretty much the most populated area of the nation. So the impacts will be pretty major. 

Some of the moisture from this storm is extending into Vermont. It will make for a rainy day in the two southernmost counties of the state. 

But it will just be a rather cloudy day north of Route 4. There could be a brief sprinkle or two as far north as Montpelier and Burlington, but it won't be enough to stop outdoor activity

So this is an interruption to our long stretch of sunny weather, but won't end this long rain-free period north of Route 2.

The clouds and rain today in places like Bennington and Brattleboro will make for a much cooler day than we've had. Highs down there will probably barely make it to 60 degrees. The further north you go, the warmer it will get.  Low elevations near the Canadian border have a good shot at 70 degrees again today. 

The big high pressure system that had stalled over Quebec and given us our long stretch of sunny, hazy, mild weather will actually strengthen after the storm off the coast departs. It will also turn warmer.  

In the opening days of October next week, highs on some days could reach 80 degrees. That's pretty close to record highs this time of year, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. Like on many days this past week, the sky will look hazy at times due to that ever-present smoke from Canadian wildfires.