Lucy Welch's Epic JD Vance Ski Area Snow Report Makes Her The Type Of Hero The Nation Needs Right Now

Lucy Welch's Sugarbush Resort ski
report last Saturday, made while
Vice President JD Vance was 
visiting the resort, was a master
 class in resistance, intelligence
and truth to power. 

Maybe I'm a little late to the party, but let's all hail Vermont's latest hero, Lucy Welch.

All winter, she dutifully got up at 4:30 in the morning and pulled together the latest weather forecasts, snowfall accumulation reports  and trail conditions for the Sugarbush Resort, a major ski area in central Vermont.  

At least she was doing that.

As of today, her employment situation is uncertain. I've heard conflicting reports. 

Here's the story:

Many of you heard that Vice President JD Vance came to the Sugarbush area with his family to enjoy a quick ski vacation. 

It might not have so enjoyable for Vance. More than 1,000 - at least -  protesters lines the streets of Waitsfield and Warren, the two main towns below Sugarbush to rail against the Vice President and the administration he works for. 

It was all over the news.  Vermonters tend to be a welcoming beneath a sometimes gruff exterior. But we have trouble suffering fools and scoundrels. So Vance wasn't the greatest fit here in the Green Mountain State.

Which leads us to Lucy Welch.

Every morning, her job was to deliver a report on the state of Sugarbush and boy did she deliver!  She included new snow reports and trail conditions as usual.  

But Welch's morning report featured a big bonus. Her report really looked at the big picture, including what the Trump administration is doing - or threatens to do - to the natural Green Mountain landscape and the people Welch truly loves.

Her report was not exactly a love letter to Vance.

Her report was quickly taken down, but things live forever on the Internet. Every word of her report is worth the read. 

Plus, Welch's essay/snow report was emailed to subscribers and it was definitely too late to undo that email. 

Since the is a climate and weather blog, I'll quote a pertinent section of Welch's Saturday morning Sugarbush ski and slope report:

"This administration also neglects to address the danger, or even the existence of, climate change, the biggest threat to the future of our industry and the skiing we all so much enjoy here. Burlington, Vermont is one of the fastest-warming cities in the country, and Vermont is the 9th fastest-warming state. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a resource I use every day for snow reporting, is crucial in monitoring extreme weather events and informing public safety measures, and is also experiencing widespread layoffs and defunding at the hands of the administration."

If Vance read Welch's Saturday morning Sugarbush report, he probably didn't love it. But a lot of other people did. 

Environmentalist Bill McKibbon, writing on Substack, declared Welch "a hero for the moment."

Long string of comments on Reddit, Facebook and other social media praised Welch. 

I liked the pun by the person who called Welch "based." Get it?  A personal compliment to her and a reference to the base of snow on the ski slopes. 

Her Saturday March 1 ski report had everything you need in the resistance to the Trump administration's worst policies. Welch used intelligence, creativity, kindness, empathy, forthrightness, honesty and truth. Those are surprisingly powerful weapons against mendacity, greed, selfishness and stupidity. 

Near the conclusion of her report, Welch wrote:

"I can only assume that I will be fired.....But at least this will do even a smidge more than just shutting up and being a sheep." Then she wrote, "What a gift to be a Sugarbush snow reporter. I hope that everyone has a fantastic day, and power to the freakin' people."

Like I mentioned earlier, It's actually unclear whether Welch has been fired or not.  I've heard some reports that she might be facing only a one-week suspension. 

I hope Sugarbush keeps her on. Or better yet, somebody hires Welch to help take on the Trump administration in some capacity.  

A word to the wise: In a world of JD Vances, be like Lucy Welch.

A Tale Of Two Vermonts This Morning: Snow Globe Or Snow-Free

A tale of two Vermonts today. Traffic cam this
morning along Interstate 89 in Colchester shows no
snow and clear sailing for motorists there......

 As expected, the Green Mountains of Vermont are being blasted by snow, while the valleys, not so much.  

The temperatures were slow to fall overnight, and were only getting below freezing in the lower elevations  as dawn broke.

The wind was cranking from the northwest, and that air had plenty of moisture in it. Trouble was, that moisture was skipping over the valleys and slamming into the mountains instead.

We're still looking at snow totals of over a foot in some spots along the central and northern Green Mountains.  Could be two feet or more at the end of it all up near Jay Peak.

As of this morning, Jay Peak has already reported at least 10 inches of new snow. 

This is probably one of the more extreme contrasts between Vermont snow winners and snow losers I've seen in quite awhile.

The heaviest snow is coming down this morning, but it will continue in the mountains through tonight, and probably into Friday and Saturday.  Those mountain accumulations won't be as rapid as they are this morning, but a couple to few inches a day still seem likely Friday and Saturday.

The bulk of the snow today is falling closer to the summits and on the upper east slopes of the Greens. But if you live in the Champlain Valley, in the lowlands along Route 7 in southwest Vermont, or lower to mid Connecticut River Valley expect just flurries at most today. 

The northwest wind is so strong that the snow isn't even really hitting the lower western slopes of the Green Mountains. You usually see some decent snows in situations like this along Interstate 89 in Richmond and Bolton, for instance, but traffic cams show it's not too bad there. You really don't start picking up the snow until you hit Waterbury. 

...but keep heading south along Interstate 89 and you start
hitting snow by the time you get to Waterbury. Pictured
here is traffic cam along Interstate 89 in Brookfield,
which looks like a snow globe. 

Things really change abruptly as you head east from the Champlain Valley into the Greens, so be ready for surprises. At my place on the eastern end of St. Albans, as of 8:30 a.m., it was just overcast, not snowing and barely a dusting on the ground. 

Barely ten miles to my east, there was already six inches of new snow on the ground in Bakersfield as of 7:30 a.m. and it was still snowing hard there. 

So don't be fooled by the easy driving in places like the Champlain Valley. If you have to cross over to eastern Vermont today, prepare for a white knuckle ride in snow and blowing snow. 

The blowing snow is definitely a problem. It is windy everywhere this morning, and that will only get worse as the day goes on.  Gusts were going past 40 mph in many spots this morning, and could reach 50 mph in some areas, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, and near the open waters of Lake Champlain today. 

The wind will probably cause some scattered power outages, and I've already seen a smattering of them this morning across the state. 

If you're heading out into the elements to hit the ski resorts for some powder today, just note there are lift holds at most of the resorts because of the wind. You'll need to take your chances on which lifts are operating, and which are not. 

Now that it's below freezing, it's going to stay that way for quite awhile. The blasts of air from the northwest coming out of Canada will keep the next winter storm far, far to our south Sunday and Monday. Looks like places from Kansas to Maryland might get snow and/or ice out of that system, ut nothing for us in Vermont.

Except for every-present snow showers up in the mountains. 

Vermont Snow Keeps Coming, But Snow Lovers Will HATE This Forecast

As dawn broke, gusty winds, snow and blowing snow
greeted early risers in St. Albans, Vermont. The state
got another installment of snow overnight. 

As forecast, another round of snow came through Vermont last night and early today, depositing a few inches of additional snow on what has surprisingly turned out to be a good start to the snow season, at least in higher elevations. 

Unfortunately for snow lovers, it won't last. More on that in a moment.  

For now, it's wintertime out there. Enjoy!

The first round of snow finally really whitened what had been the bare central and southern Champlain Valley. 

By Saturday, Burlington had accumulated 4.9 inches of snow. It was pure fluff, with just over a tenth of an inch of water equivalent, so I'm sure that quickly packed down to a couple inches or so by evening. 

The next round of snow last night was marginally richer in moisture content, but stronger winds put much of the Champlain Valley in a "shadow" much like we saw last Wednesday.  Southwest winds blocked moisture for coming down into the Champlain Valley, so probably an inch or less fell in most places south of Milton. 

But the moisture was able to skip over the Burlington area and blanket the rest of Vermont - including the far northern Champlain Valley in a few to several inches of snow.  i 

It was actually rather blizzardy here in St. Albans, Vermont very early Sunday with moderate snow, plenty of blowing snow and winds gusting to roughly 35 mph. I would have hated to be on the roads.

New snow total reports from overnight are sparse so far.  Marshfield reported 5.5 inches of new snow overnight. Five inches was reported in Waterbury Center, West Newbury and Morrisville. Swanton clocked in with four inches.  The snow was difficult to measure here in St. Albans due to the wind, but a close guess would be a little under three inches.

In the mountains, the snow cover is becoming kind of impressive for this early in the season after a very slow start. As of yesterday, there was 35 inches of snow on the ground near the top of Mount Mansfield. On average, about 18 inches of snow would grace that mountain snow stake this time of year.

More snow fell up there  overnight, as we know. Jay Peak says 55 inches of snow fell there in the seven days ending Saturday. 

That catches us up to today. Now what? The spoiler is, no rest for the weary.  Let's take it day by day.

TODAY:

 The snow should exit Vermont soon, if it hasn't already. We'll be left with a mild, cloudy day, and there will probably be a few patches of very light drizzle or sprinkles around. In the valleys, it'll turn the snow into something wetter and better to create ammunition for snowball fights and construction material for snowmen and snow sculptures. 

MONDAY:

The next little system comes at us from the southwest. Not a big storm, but enough to screw things up for us a little. Light snow will break out in the afternoon, and there could be a mix with some freezing rain toward evening and overnight. 

Not great for the evening commute, but that's what we're stuck with.

TUESDAY: 

The relative calm before the main event. It'll be cloudy and mild, with maybe a little rain here and there, no biggie

WEDNESDAY:

Here's the part that will make snow lovers despise the forecast. Don't hate me, I'm just the messenger! 

It still looks like one or two very wet waves of low pressure will move northward along a stalled front in the Northeast, sending boatloads of rain into New England, including Vermont. 

Rain and melted snow forecast for next seven days.
Anything in purple is at least 1.5 inches of rain or'water
equivalent. Much of this will be rain up here in Vermont.

Despite the ongoing drought, flooding is a real possibility. Unless forecasts change, the best chance of any flooding would be in eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, where up to three inches of rain could come down in a short period of time.

But initial forecasts bring one to two inches of rain to Vermont. Combined with snow melt, this could cause local flooding problems. You might remember we had a similar storm in mid-December last year - heavy rain and melting snow that caused some destructive flooding. 

The early guess is this year won't be another repeat of last December, thank goodness. There's far less soil moisture, so where the ground isn't frozen it can absorb water.  Main rivers wouldn't cause too many problems, as they're running pretty low from this autumn's drought. 

But still, keep an eye on this, because we could have some local problems with small streams, or water flowing into basements. Especially in areas where the ground is frozen so water can't soak in readily. And areas with a lot of snow on the ground that will melt. Plus, we've had a lot of experience lately with storms that tend to "over-achieve" and be more intense than forecast. 

Nature will throw a bone to snow lovers as it does appear the rain will change to snow Wednesday night. It's too soon to say whether anybody will pick up a lot of snow, or just a dusting. But my initial guess is we will end the midweek storm in most of Vermont with less snow than when we started. 

THURSDAY/ONWARD

It will turn seasonably cold after the midweek storm, but of course forecasts are questionable beyond a few days, so I won't get into what will happen late in the week and next weekend. It's just too soon to call, but if I had to guess, I'd say nothing that exciting would happen in the weather department a week from now.