Wet, Snowy Western Winter Not Enough To End Water Shortage

Snow water equivalent - the amount of "rain" in the
existing snow pack, is definitely above normal in 
the mountains in the Colorado River basin, but
years of heavy precipitation is needed to end
the drought and low water levels in important reservoirs.

 Over the past year, we've seen a lot of news about low levels in the Colorado River, and now Lake Mead and Lake Powell had gotten to dangerously low levels. 

That situation endangers water supplies for something like 40 million people. Since the dams in front of the two lakes normally generate lots of electricity, even the grid out west has been threatened. 

This isn't just a problem for western states supplied by the Colorado River. If things get really bad out there with water shortages and electrical generation, the economic ripple effects would be felt nationwide, and probably worldwide. Including here in the Brave Little State of Vermont. 

However, as you also might have heard, or seen in this here blog thingy, there's been a welcome ton of rain and mountain snow out west, including in much of the Colorado River basin.

Water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell have crept up a little this winter. And, if the spring snow melt behaves well, a little bit more water will enter to the two giant reservoirs.

So all good, right?

Um, no.

The region that includes the Colorado River basin has been in a more than two-decade long mega-drought. One winter with great precipitation does not erase something like that. It would take years and years of wet weather to set things right. 

Though drought has eased in the West, it's still definitely
a factor as the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released
on February 2, shows. 

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, most recently issued Thursday, indicates that much of the West remains in drought despite the recent storms. Though the drought has diminished some since the autumn. 

Climate change has made the West hotter, and generally drier. Hotter weather creates more evaporation, so things dry out more quickly. This winter's rain and snow is bucking the trend of a drier climate. 

That could just be a part of natural variability superimposed on the drier climate. Chances are, this stormy western winter could be just a temporary reprieve. 

As Yale Climate Connections notes:

"Some experts worry it could further delay the hard work that managers of the watershed must do to keep it healthy and make its service more inclusive as the climate grows hotter and more parched.

'As soon as water supplies increase, people tend to stop paying attention,' said Kathy Jacobs, director of the University of Arizona's Center for Climate Adaption Science and Solutions said in an interview. 'I hope people realize that even one year of good flows doesn't mean we have a trend in that direction. We really need a long-term solution.'"

Decades old water usage agreements among western states are based on river gauge readings between 1900 and 1920.

That basis is way too optimistic considering scientists have since found that those 20 years more than a century ago were among the wettest in 1,400 years. 

Oops. 

The drought, and low water levels in Lakes Mead and Powell got so low by last June that the U.S. Department of the Interior demanded states that use water from the Colorado River come up with a plan that sharply reduces usage. 

That agreement is still in the works, though Yale Climate Connections notes it's good that at least the states agree sharp cutbacks are needed, even if they don't yet agree on just how to accomplish that. 

For more info, read the entire Yale Climate Connections article here.

 

Extreme Western Drought Might Solve A Few Old Murder Cases

Lake Mead along the Colorado River has receded so
much from drought that a body was found in a barrel.
Police suspect the murder happened in the late 1970s
or early 1980s. The lake has gotten so low the 
barrel has only now been discovered 
Photo from KLSA 

UPDATE:

Sure enough, as Lake Mead's water continues to recede in that extreme western drought, another body has been discovered. 

A couple of women paddling in the low lake found the skeletal remains on a sand bar. 

Unlike the previous find, officials don't think this one involves foul play. Still it will be investigated.

If the lake keeps receding, I wonder how many more long lost bodies/people will be found?

PREVIOUS MESSAGE 

That punishing drought in the West has brought storied Lake Mead to its lowest levels on record.  Possible water shortages loom for large portions of the West Coast, the southern and central Rockies and the Desert Southwest as no real drought relief seems to be in the offing. 

It'll be a long, hot and rather scary summer in this area.

f you're stretching for any hint of a bright side to this drought, here's one.  It's possible low water levels could held solve some cold murder cases.

For instance, the water recently receded so much that a rusted barrel emerged from the water. Inside were the skeletal remains of a murder victim.  Police said judging from clothing and other evidence, the person was murdered and dumped into Lake Mead sometimes during the 1980s Las Vegas Metro Police homicide Lt. Ray Spencer told television station KLAS.  

"'It's going to be a very difficult case,' Spencer said. 'I would say there is a very good chance as the water level drops that we are going to find additional human remains.'

That, unfortunately makes sense. Lake Mead is only 40 miles or so from Las Vegas.  That city is famous for lots of things, including gambling murders and mob hits.   Lake Mead would be an incredibly convenient place to dump a body, never to be seen again.

Unless the region were hit by the worst drought in at least1,200 years, which is exactly what is happening now.  Yep, I said 1,200 years. The last time it was this bad in the west was around the year 1000.

This mega-drought, defined as a drought lasting a couple to a few decades is influence by climate change. 

As Scientific American reports, there probably would be a drought going on now in the West without climate change, but the burning of fossil fuels has made things much worse than they otherwise would be.

"'It probably wouldn't even be a continuous drought,' said Benjamin Cook, a NASA climate scientist and co-author of the new study, published in Nature Climate Change. 'We still would have had a drought. It sill would have been reasonably bad. But it would be nowhere near the record-breaking even that we're seeing right now.'"

Back in the Colorado River basin, which includes Lake Mead, 98.3 percent of the basin is currently in drought and 26.6 percent of it is in extreme or exceptional drought. More than 80 percent of the basin has been in drought since July, 2020, according to NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System.

Which means this will soon turn into a crisis far worse than discovered homicide victims in receding lakes.  

August In May: 90 Degree Vermont Heat, Subtropical Storm, Western Wildfires

Subtropical Storm Ana spinning northeast of Bermuda
this morning. It's the seventh year in a row with a 
pre-season tropical system in the Atlantic

 Typically in August, we get bouts of near 90 degree heat here in Vermont.  August is also the time of year we keep a close eye on the tropics for potential tropical storms and hurricanes. Late summer is also when wildfires really start to blossom out West.  

All this is happening now, which is really weird for this time of year. Welcome to August in May. 

Here in Vermont, Burlington reached 90 degrees Friday for the second day in a row. It wasn't quite a record high, but still impressive for this time of year. 

Montpelier did manage a record high for the date on Friday. It got up to 89 degrees, besting the old record of 86 degrees set in 1977.

It'll be quite warm again today, but not quite as toasty as the past two days.  There's increased cloud cover, so that will hold temperatures down a bit.  

Still, most of us should make it into the 80s this afternoon. There will be a few hit and miss showers and rumbles of thunder today, but most of us will stay dry. 

A pretty strong cold front tomorrow will flush out the hot air and return us to seasonable conditions for a couple days anyway. A small percentage of Sunday's storms might reach severe limits with gusty winds, especially in southern and eastern Vermont, and over in New Hampshire, Maine and southern New England. 

More heat might briefly return to Vermont midweek.

But our August in May theme goes on elsewhere. The official tropical storm and hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, but there's already a subtropical storm out there. 

Subtropical Storm Ana formed overnight northeast of Bermuda.  It's considered subtropical because it has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old storm. Still, a subtropical storm is unusual in May.

Less unusual than in the past, though.  Every once in while, a tropical or subtropical storm would form in the Atlantic, but it was rare.  But with Ana forming overnight, this is now the seventh consecutive year a tropical or subtropical storm has formed in May over the Atlantic.

This particular subtropical storm is no real threat.  It won't strengthen much beyond its current 45 mph top winds, and should dissipate in the next couple of days. 

Another system that threatened to form into another tropical storm overnight in the Gulf of Mexico failed to get its act together. Still, this wannabe system will spread unwanted, heavy downpours into flooded eastern Texas.

Flooding sure isn't the problem out West.  As of earlier this month, 18 square miles of California had already burned so far this year.  That's ahead of the pace of last year, which turned out to be the worst wildfire season in that state's history. 

Multiple wildfires have already broken out in Arizona, well before the peak of their usual fire season. 

All of this strange May weather I described above might be the main feature, and not bugs of the rest of the summer and early fall. 

Long range forecasts are often unreliable but for what it's worth, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts a hotter than normal summer for most of the United States, including here in Vermont and the rest of New England. 

Also, most experts expect a busier than normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, though it won't be as extreme and hectic as the record season last year.

And, with drought widespread across the western third of the United States, the wildfire season out there is sure to be a humdinger, perhaps on par with last year's devastating season. 

The month of May doesn't always hold clues as to what the rest of the summer will bring, but warning signs do seem to be flashing toward a very interesting summer in the weather department. 

A Windy, Sometimes Fiery Nation Today

All those red areas in today's National Weather Service map
are fire alert areas. The browns are high wind warnings or
advisories. Many of these areas are under both wind
and fire alerts. 

We here in Vermont got some more rain, as expected Wednesday, with some parts of eastern Vermont getting more than an inch. 

That's terrific, since the driest conditions around here have been in those parts of the Green Mountain State.  

It's also pretty calm out there today, which is an exception to what's going on in much of the nation. 

There's lots of wind today in the western two thirds of the United States, with vast areas under high wind warnings and wind advisories. 

Unfortunately, many of these areas are in drought. The combination of that dryness, the strong winds and low humidity is once again driving up the fire risk. 

The nation's fire season just doesn't seem to want to end. 

The areas most at risk for dangerous wildfire conditions today are northern California (again!), the northern Rockies and a vast area of the northern and central Plains. 

You wouldn't think there's much to burn in the Plains, but there's a lot of grassland and dried out crops that can easily catch fire.  These blazes can be dangerous. 

For instance, rangeland fires in Oklahoma back in 2018 killed at least two people and destroyed several dozen homes.  

The Plains will trend toward cooler and in some places somewhat wetter conditions over the next week, which should improve things, at least temporarily.

Out on the West Coast, it's still looking grim for awhile yet. Below normal rainfall is likely to continue out there for at least the next two weeks. No rain is forecast anywhere in California for the next two weeks. 

It doesn't usually rain in southern California this time of year anyway. Santa Ana winds expected near Los Angeles will raise the fire risk for much of the rest of this week. 

Northern California usually starts to see the start of the winter rainy season about now.  So far, no luck. 

Back here in the New England, recent rains haven't entire erased the drought, but at least the forests are now too wet to support any real brush or woodland fires.  

Vermont Fire Danger Today, And Western Wildfires REALLY Ramping Up

We've been watching the wildfires out west with horror most of the summer and so far all this autumn.

Now, in a much more minor way, it's our turn in Vermont to worry about fires. Luckily the threat likely will only last a day or two. 

As mentioned in previous posts, the drought in New England has gotten worse this month as we've had virtually no rain since late August.

The weeds and brush have dried out, a process that was accelerated by last weekend's frosts. Dry, fallen leaves are accumulating on the ground. 

Today will be another dry day, and the wind will blow pretty briskly. That's a great recipe for starting a brush or forest fire.  Forget the campfires, the brush burns and such today, as you could easily start a fire. 

This situation isn't nearly as bad as out west.  The relative humidity today will be around 50%, not the 10% or less out in some of the western fire zones.  Though we're having a drought, it's not as bad as in much of the West. We don't have stands of thousands of dead trees like they have in places like California. 

Drought has killed trees in California and weakened many more. Those weakened trees are then murdered by bark beetles.

Still, we in Vermont have to take care today.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington says there's a high fire danger statewide today.   Not the day to throw cigarette butts out your car window, but then again NO day is the right day to do that. Take care of your own damn litter.  

The good news is forecasters are still expected some decent rains around here Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the expected rain won't be nearly enough to erase our drought conditions, at least it will wet things down and limit the fire danger. 

No such luck out west. 

As reported earlier, hot windy weather has established itself across many parts of the West, and that will continue pretty much all week.  

WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette posted
to Twitter this photo of a parched hillside in
Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, helping to 
illustrate the current fire danger in the state.

That snowfall in Colorado early this month did little good. As soon as that cleared out, it turned hot and dry again for the rest of the month out there. 

A big blaze west of Fort Collins has become Colorado's third largest wildfire in history.  Mandatory evacuations are up for subdivisions in the mountains near the fire. Fort Collins and Denver, among other cities, are shrouded in smoke, causing dangerous spikes in air pollution. 

This fire started August 13, but got a lot worse the past couple of days due to high temperatures, low humidity and strong, gusty winds. 

Firefighters have been struggling for weeks with fires in northern California. They've gotten to the point of being partly contained. But starting this morning and going through Monday, hot, dry east winds are expected to fan those fires back out of control. New, dangerous fires might also develop under these extreme weather conditions. 

At least one new fire erupted in the Napa wine country area early this morning, prompting evacuations. 

In southern California, hot, dry, strong Santa Ana winds will make things dangerous most of the upcoming week. 

Unlike in Vermont, pretty much no rain is in the forecast for at least the next seven days anywhere west of a line from the Montana/North Dakota border down to the Rio Grande Valley in Texas. 

Weather Pattern Change: Horrible News For West, Not Bad News For Vermonters

As it tends to do, the weather pattern can get a little more variable in the autumn, and things are going to shake up a little bit over the next few days.  Unfortunately, that pattern will then get somewhat stuck for awhile, which has some dangerous implications for the western United States. 

A dim sun, obscured by lots of western wildfire
smoke overhead, sets behind power lines
Tuesday evening in St. Albans, Vermont.

All of us are aware that the west continues to burn.  Plumes of smoke are still crossing the nation.  That's why it was so hazy overhead yesterday here in Vermont. Another big huge puff of smoke blew our way.

The west will see another big, hot ridge of high pressure bloom overhead. The process will be gradual over the next few days, but by the very end of September and the first week or more of October, that heat ridge will be well established. 

Rainfall in recent days has helped somewhat in the western half of Washington and northwestern Oregon, but everybody else on the West Coast has been pretty dry. California doesn't normally see much in the rainfall until much later in the autumn anyway.  

This upcoming pattern will bring the heat to the west, and also east winds blowing toward the Pacific Ocean.  You don't want that. Firefighters need cool, damp breezes from the Pacific Ocean. That doesn't look like that's in the cards for the upcoming couple of weeks. 

Cold fronts and storms forming much east of the Rockies will help send pushes of very strong, dry east winds into parts of California and maybe Oregon and western Washington at times .

This is a recipe for more mega-fires, as if the West hasn't seen enough already. We know California has already had a record fire year, and they are now just entering what is normally peak fire season.  This won't be good. 

There will be a corresponding big southward dip in the jet stream with this set up. That will keep the Midwest, and eventually probably the Northeast cooler than normal. 

It also gives us Vermonters a shot of getting some needed rain. Up until now, Burlington, Vermont is on pace for having the driest September on record. The driest September on record has only 0.68 inches of rain, in 1927.

Not-fun fact: September of 1927 was super dry, but most of us know what happened a couple months later. The Great Flood of 1927 hit on November 3-4, 1927.  I'm not at all saying history will repeat itself, but still, shudder. 

Anyway, this shifting weather pattern gives us some shots at possibly decent rains to close out the month. I, for one, am happy we're probably losing a chance to break another weather record. I want rain! 

So does practically everyone else in Vermont. The state's vast forests are usually kind of hard to burn, That's especially true if you're talking about deep, serious burns that don't just race across the surface.

The organic material in Vermont forests usually stays wet enough so that nothing beyond leaf litter burns during occasion dry spells.  Our tree filled landscape has more than once been called the "asbestos forest."

It's so dry now that we're starting to get the rare fires that burn deep under logs and roots. There's such a fire burning now near Killington, though fortunately it was discovered early so it didn't spread much beyond a half acre.  In a worst case scenario, this type of fire can blow up to become a real nasty one. 

The upcoming weather pattern makes it more likely, but not definite, that we will have more rainfalls in the first half of October. We shall see.

Long range forecasts, as I always note, are dicey. So there will be shifts in the forecast heading into October. 

I sure hope that heat ridge in the west is being overdone by computer forecasting models. By the same token, I sure hope we enter a rainy pattern heading into the autumn to replenish ground water reserves here in Vermont. 

If there's another bright side, there are hints that California could receive some rain in mid-October. We shall see.