You Betcha! Vermont December Was A Chilly One: 2nd Coldest Of This Century So Far

Henry the Weather Dog spent a good part of New Year's
Eve day wrapped in blankets and pleading for warmer
weather after the second coldest December in the 
past 25 years. If long range forecasts are correct,
Henry is going to be disappointed. 

EDITORS NOTE: I'm starting the first morning of the New Year with a look back at December.  A rundown of the entire year of 2025 is coming in a post later today. For now, let's take a not-so-nostalgic look back at December 2025. 

If you felt like we had an old fashioned type of December in Vermont, you're absolutely right. 

In Burlington, it was the second coldest December in the past 25 years. Only December. 2017 was a smidge chillier than the month we just ended.

But in our climate-changed world, December, 2025 wasn't all that cold compared to many years in the 20th century. 

In Burlington, by my reckoning, it was just tied for 48th coldest out of the past 135 years. In other words, it was just a slightly chilly but unremarkably cold month. 

The climate change-influenced "new normal" compares this month to the average of years between 1990 and 2020. By that standard, December 2025 was right around five degrees colder than "normal" statewide. 

Nights were colder compared to average than daytime highs. Daily low temperatures last month were six to seven degrees cooler than the "new" average across the state. Daytime highs were between 3.5 and 4.5 chillier than that average. 

In terms of precipitation, I'll give you an oxymoron: It was the most extremely normal month I can remember. 

I say that because total rain and melted snow were almost exactly average for December in the reporting stations I looked at. Precipitation was around three inches, give or take. 

Burlington was just a third of an inch wetter than average. Montpelier was less than a quarter inch on the dry side. Bennington was about a tenth of an inch on the wet side. Rutland, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock were all within 0.06 inches of normal. 

It's really remarkable that rain and melted snow in the whole state was that close to normal. 

Moderate to locally severe drought continues in northeastern Vermont, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. It's been that way for weeks. I don't think it's as dire as it looks. The ground is largely frozen, so water isn't seeping in yet. A lot of precipitation lately has been in the form of snow. That's just banked up moisture for the spring.

Unless the rest of the winter is remarkably dry, I think you'll see the lingering drought easing up during the spring. 

Snowfall was somewhat above normal statewide. I noticed Burlington, Rutland and St. Johnsbury, to take some examples, were about five inches on the plus side for snow. 

If your hat kept blowing off during December, there's a good reason for that. Especially in the Champlain Valley. In Burlington, 21 days out of the month had gusts to 30 mph or greater. Eight of those days gusted to 40 mph or more. 

Periodic local power outages were the theme of the month.

We only had two big storms during the month, both in the second half of the month. 

On December 19, we had a brief break in the cold as a powerful storm passed by to our west. Burlington soared to 63 degrees, shattering the old record for the date, which was 49 degrees. Strong winds blasted through Vermont during the storm. As many as 20 percent of Vermont households and businesses lost power at various points in that storm. 

Another storm on December 29 dumped a bunch of freezing rain on much of the state.  Power was again cut to thousands of homes and businesses. Police agencies throughout the state dealt with hundreds of car crashes and spinouts on icy roads and highways. 

LOOKING AHEAD

January is beginning as December left off. It's cold out there. 

Most of the snow from last night was finished as of mid-morning today. We have a frigid several days to look forward to. 

Temperatures in the teens this morning will fall into the single numbers by this afternoon.  A stinging northwest wind will make it feel worse. Pretty much everyone in the Green Mountain State will see the,peratures below zero overnight and into tomorrow morning. 

Each day through next Monday will feature highs in the chilly teens and lows within a few degrees either side of zero. There are signs we might see something of a warmup toward the middle and end of next week. We're not sure how big that warmup might be or whether it will last more than a couple days. 

There are no large or even mid-sized storms in sight for the next several days. The next chance of even a somewhat noticeable storm isn't due until maybe next Wednesday. And so far, even that potential storm looks kind of underwhelming. 

Longer range forecasts can be unreliable. But the NOAA is predicting an overall January weather pattern almost identical to the one we had in December. That means - if this forecast is accurate - we'll have another colder than normal January, possibly even well below normal. NOAA has equal chances of us seeing above or below normal precipitation. 

Snow Continues To Set Records In Vermont's Green Mountains

A snowy view of Vermont's Mount Mansfield from
January, 2021. This year, it's especially wintry up
there. As of Friday, there was 63 inches of snow on
the ground near the top of the mountain, a record
for so early in the season. 

 The ski and riding season is off to the best start in memory over Vermont's Green Mountains with another boatload of snow up there this past week. 

There is a hiccup looming in the snow parade, but for now (more on that in a minute) But for now, it's pretty wild up there. 

The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield, Vermont's highest peak, reached 63 inches on Friday, breaking the old record depth for the date of 56 inches. 

The 63 inch snow depth is the earliest in the season on record for so much snow.  Until Friday, the snow depth up there had never gotten to 63 inches any earlier than December 26. 

In a typical winter, there's 21 inches of snow on the ground up there this time of year. Mount Mansfield usually doesn't have 63 inches of snow piled up until early February.   

The folks up at Jay Peak near the Canadian border, said they received about two feet of snow in the 36 hours ending early this morning. Snowfall so far this season up there is 185 inches. Their Saturday snow report says that's the most they've ever seen for so early in the season. 

That Jay Peak report also gave us this statement:  "The amount of snow is starting to feel borderline terrifying, but it skis like a dream." 

It's rare for ski areas in Vermont to have all their terrain open this season, but all of Jay Peak's alpine and Nordic trails are open as of this morning. 

Elsewhere, both Smugglers' Notch and Stowe have already had more than 100 inches of snowfall this season so far.

This has really been a mountain snow blitz, with Vermont valleys kind of sitting this one out. Snowfall so far this season has been a little more than average in northern Vermont valleys and definitely nothing special in the low lands of southern Vermont. 

So far this season, Burlington has had 18.9 inches of snow, which is 6.7 inches ahead of normal as of Friday. St. Johnsbury has had 13.4 inches of snow so far this month, which means they're running a little ahead of average 

What makes the snow even more remarkable in the northern Green Mountains is the lack of thaws since Thanksgiving.  That's a rarity for December, especially in recent years when record or near record warmth has often hit during the last month of the year. 

This year's cold December weather has contributed to the deep snow cover in the mountains. In the valleys, snow cover is pretty substantial for this time of year, but not record-breaking. Two towns near Jay Peak, Westfield and Montgomery, had 20 inches on the ground as of Friday, which is a lot. 

Greensboro had 16 inches, but I couldn't find any other towns listed by the National Weather Service as having more than a foot of snow covering the landscape. 

OUTLOOK

There might be a little more snow today, but most places around Vermont should receive an inch or less. The mountains could pick up two or three inches, but this will be a minor little event. 

A few more light snow showers look like they'll come through Monday night.  But for the most part, nature's snow hose is temporarily just a dribble. 

The powder party in the mountains looks like it'll finally get interrupted around Thursday. By then, a well-anticipated weather pattern change will have gotten established. Instead of pushes of cold air from Canada, we'll have a  really fast, west-to-east flow across the United States.

This will allow squirts of warm air to come up ahead of storms zipping along in that flow. The first of these will probably come through here around Thursday, as mentioned. At this point,  it's looking like some rain will come with it, even in the high elevations. 

Details on this forecast are still a bit iffy, and subject to change, as always. But for now, it does look like the fast motion of the storm will mean the rain and the thawing won't last long enough to melt a huge amount of snow, and it probably won't really rain hard.  Plus, I imagine there will be a little snow at the tail end of the storm as a parting gift. 

After a brief cooldown, there might be another system next Sunday sort of similar to Thursday's zipping on through. 

Some of the computer models are hinting at a larger storm probably just after Christmas. But it's way too soon yet to figure out if there will indeed be a storm, and if so, what type. 

It seems there's some sort of good sized storm somewhere around Christmas almost every year. So this is a good reminder to bank extra time if you're traveling over the holiday in case the weather goes south. 

Yes, The Vermont Cold Is Awful But It's Been Worse

This little comic work for this month, that's for
sure. But other Decembers in Vermont have
been even worse. 

 I was among many Vermonters last week grumbling over the coldest beginning of December in 36 years.

 It's cold again this Monday morning, and it'll stay cold until a brief, snow and perhaps brief rainy interlude Wednesday. 

Then, we go back into an extended period of cold. 

It's true that this is so far turning out to be the chilliest December in many years. It's disheartening to go outside and have your face hurt, it's so cold. 

Here in St. Albans, it's been days since Henry the Weather Dog, a native of balmy South Texas, has gone exploring and hunting outside like he enjoys. Instead, it's been quick trips outdoors, then a frantic dash back indoors. 

I can't blame the little guy. 

I guess one way to endure the this cold early winter is to understand it could be worse. It has been worse. And I've got plenty of receipts to prove it. 

As usual, I can point to even worse weather in the past. What follow is a fairly exhaustive list of December cold spells that will have you reaching for yet another thick blanket to huddle under. 

Christmas, 1872    

This was perhaps the most brutal Christmas Day Vermont has seen.  As children opened their presents early that morning, it was 40 below in Randolph, 43 b below in Lunenberg, and minus 41.5 degrees in Woodstock.  

December, 1917

The early part of the month was cold, as temperatures went below freezing on the second and failed to get above 32 again until the 19th. After some relatively  mild weather over the Christmas holiday, the bottom really dropped out of the temperature in the days leading up to New Yoears' 

The high temperature in Burlington on December 29 was 16 below, at 12:01 a.m. From there temperatures kept dropping down to as low as 23 below. Next morning, it was 25 below, and rose all the way to 13 below on the afternoon of the 30th.  It stayed well below zero until New Year's Dauy

Over in St. Johnsbury, the cold was even more insane during December, 2017. The "appetizer" cold waves earlier in the month were bad enough. It was 12 below that year on December 12; then 26 below on December 12 and a frigid 29 below on December 16. 

But the cold on the final days of the month in St. Johnsbury were beyond ridiculous. It was 43 below on December 30. By New Year's Eve, it had warmed up to a balmy 40 below. 

December, 1933

Nobody thought it could get colder in Vermont than Christmas week, 1917, but they were proven wrong in December, 1933.

The month as a whole was quite chilly, but not as bad as 1917. But the final days of December, 1933 made up for that relative lack of early month cold. 

Most famously, this cold wave brought Vermont its coldest temperature on record. It got down to 50 below in Bloomfield, in the Northeast Kingdom.  In St. Johnsbury, it was 42 below on December 30, 1933, almost as bad as 1917. 

The northern Champlain Valley was impressively cold, too. St. Albans reached a remarkable 36 below on December 30. Down in Burlington, it was 29 below December 29 and 30. 

 December 1940

This month wasn't particular cold, but got off to a very rough start.  Most record lows around the Champlain Valley in early December are in the single numbers below zero. But on December 3 the temperature reached 15 below in Burlington. The next day, it was 17 below. 

There are no record lows colder than that in Burlington until you get to December 20, just two years after this cold spell. In 1942, it got to 20 below.,  

On December 4 and 5, other Vermont record lows include 34 in Enosburg Falls; 31 below in Chelsea; 31 below in Bloomfield. St. Johnsbury reached 27 below on December 4, and 16 below in Rutland. 

Christmas, 1980

This was a very similar holiday to the cruelly frigid Christmas of 1872, that I described above. A sharp cold front passed through on Christmas Eve, depositing three to six inches of snow in most places, ensuring a white Christmas.

But that cold front was a powerhouse. By 12:01 a.m. Christmas Day it was 5 below in Burlington. That would be the high temperature that day. The temperature reached 20 below at 7 a.m., and then rose only to minus 14 between 3 and 4 p.m. It got down to 25 below at midnight to set the record for the coldest Christmas on record. It was 26 below on December 26.

Stiff north winds kept wind chills Christmas Day in the minus 30s and 40s.  

Other actual temperatures in Vermont included 38 below on top of Mount Mansfield, 35 below in West Burke, minus 31 in St. Johnsbury and  minus 28 in Newport; 

 December, 1989

By the late 1980s, were were just starting to really feel the effects of climate change. Winters were getting warmer and less consistent. But 1989 proved you can still get brutally cold months, even with an overall warmer world. 

The month's average temperature was 7.5 degrees, breaking the previous 1917 coldest December record by 4.7 degrees. That's an incredibly large margin by which to break a monthly temperature. It was the sixth coldest of any month in Burlington, and the first time one of the top 10 coldest months was in December. 

The cold in December 1989 was not as intense as it was in 1917 or 1933, as the coldest temperature for the month in Burlington was an unspectacular 18 below. 

But the cold in 1989 was incredibly consistent. Nineteen days in Burlington featured subzero temperatures. Every day from December 1 through 30 was at least 11 degrees below normal. Every 25 daytime high between December 8 and 30 was 25 degrees or under that. 

Funny personal anecdote:  I badly broke my ankle in late November that year. During the middle of that frigid December, I was in downtown Burlington. We had just gotten nearly a foot of snow in a mid-month storm. It was freezing cold that day, of course! 

Back then, you had to put quarters and such in parking meters.I couldn't climb the snowbank on crutches, so I gave an expensively dressed, middle aged woman a quarter to put in the meter for me. She took the quarter and walked away triumphantly as if I gifted her a diamond tiara. 

I hope she spent that quarter well! 

 COLD DECEMBER, COLD WINTER?

The records are mixed on whether a cold December means the rest of the winter will be frigid. 

The cold December of 1917 introduced a frigid winter. To this day, the winter of 1917-18 is the coldest on record in Burlington

The winter of 1933-34 was also unusually cold. February, 1934 is still the coldest on record, at le4ast as measured in Burlington.  

After December, 1980, January of 1981 is the seventh coldest on record, But February, 1981 is the warmest on record.

As for the cold December, 1989, things turned around immediately in January.  January, 1990 is the second warmest on record. February that year was on the warm side, too. 

Bottom line, I have no idea what the rest of the winter will be like. 

Warm Air Already Over-Performing In Some Spots In Vermont Enjoy, Won't Last Long

This month's snow caught us off guard before we put
deck furniture away. The warm ground allowed the 
snow to mostly melt (see background) but no warmth
beneath the deck allowed the snow to stay. We're hoping
warm weather today and tomorrow will melt the
deck snow so we can properly
store all the summer stuff. 

Sorry for the late start with the weather today, as I am a little under the weather. No worries though, just a bit of a high pressure system in my sinuses. I should be better in no time. 

So, it's warm out there for a change.  At least compared to what we've had to deal with. In some areas, it's even warmer than we thought it would be, which is a nice switch. 

The forecast high in Burlington today was 47 degrees. That would make today the hottest day since November 8. But the forecast is off a bit. That's because it was already 48 degrees as of 10 a.m. 

The milder air is really funneling up the Champlain Valley, which explains the toasty air there. In the rest of Vermont, it looks like temperatures will end up in the 40s this afternoon, close to the forecast highs. 

It's nice to see the last of the snow finally leaving my yard up in St. Albans after being there since November 10. 

Tonight will be balmy, too, at least by late November standards. I wouldn't exactly rush to put the air conditioners back on the windows. But still, a low of 40 degrees isn't bad for the time of year.  

The first wave of rain will come through tonight. Sorry, early season skiers!  It'll only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take, so nothing to worry about. 

Tomorrow will bring us the peak of the "heat wave" as readings will get up into the 50s in many places. A 60 degree reading in one of the warmest towns isn't out of the question, but don't hold your breath. 

Although a shower might come at any time Wednesday, we'll probably have a lull during the day. 

The warm air can't last forever, especially with the late autumn/early winter weather pattern we find ourselves in this year. 

The cold front will come through before dawn Thanksgiving, throwing another band of rain showers at us, then shutting off the warm air. Although the colder air will come in aloft quickly, it'll take time to make it down to where we live.

So Thanksgiving itself will be OK, with clouds, a little sun, some blustery winds and highs near 40 or so. 

The cold air will really come in Thanksgiving night and Friday. Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will crank up big time.  So big that some of that snow should hit the central and northern Green Mountains for a time.  Even the valleys will get a little snow.  The ski areas, though should get a bit of recovery snow - maybe three to six inches. 

During Friday, the lake effect snows will shift southward, so the southern Green Mountains might pick up a little snow, too.

Saturday looks cold, too, but the snow showers should be drying up by then. 

The overall weather pattern heading well into December looks active and mostly cold. The next shot at snow and rain will come Sunday and Monday.  That storm might go a little to our west, which is why I'm thinking mixed precipitation on that one. 

We'll have more info once we get closer to that event, which I know you've seen me say a zillion times already. But it's true that forecasts more than a few days out can get a little questionable.  

Parts Of Vermont Declared Federal Disaster Area AGAIN: December Floods This Time

Water and debris from the flooding Lamoille River
blocks Route 7 in Milton, December 19, 2023. President
Biden just declared that flood to be yet another
Vermont disaster, eligible for federal help. 

 We got the news Monday that parts of Vermont were declared a disaster area once again, this time for damaging flooding back in December. 

It's confirms that 2023 was quite a year.   

VTDigger tells us:

"Municipalities in Essex, Lamoille, Orange, Orleans, Rutland, Windham and Windsor counties now qualify for federal reimbursement of 75% of the costs associated with flood recovery - such as debris removal, road and public building repairs, staff overtime and contractor assistance. 

State and federal assessors found at least $1.9 million in storm-eligible costs during a preliminary survey in December, though the final number is expected to increase, according to a press release issued by (Gov Phil) Scott's office."

This makes three major disaster declarations in Vermont in 2023, which highly unusual to say the least.  In addition, an agriculture disaster was declared for damage inflicted during a May 18, 2023 freeze.

Even further, a few parts of Vermont might receive another major disaster declaration for damage we saw in two intense wind storms between January 9 and 13 of this year.

That would mean five disasters in Vermont within fewer than nine months. If Vermont were a person, it would certainly need some serious therapy. Maybe I shouldn't joke.  The disasters weren't exactly great for the mental health of  the people who lived through them. People are still traumatized. 

The specific list of disasters declarations for 2023 is:

--- Flooding, December 18-19, as described above

---Flooding, Addison County, August 3-5. 

---Flooding, landslides, mudslides July 7-23. all Vermont counties

--USDA-declared agricultural disaster declaration for Vermont, May 17-18.

For such an allegedly "climate refuge" state, Vermont has had a large number of disaster declarations, or weather events that prompted federal assistance Not just in 2023, but in recent years and decades. 

These include a declaration for high winds, flooding and a winter storm on December 22-24, 2022; flooding in Bennington and Windham counties on July 21-22, 2021; and a storm that brought severe flooding and high winds on October 31-November 1, 2019. 

Although I can't specifically blame climate change for any of these storms, they certain are consistent with the phenomenon. Storms can get more powerful in a warmer atmosphere, creating heavier precipitation and stronger winds than would otherwise occur.

Since the world continues to warm, we'll be prone to more and more of these nasty disasters. 

If the federal government declares the January wind storms yet another Vermont disaster, that certainly won't be the last. There will be more. If not later this year, then very probably well before this decade is done. 

 

 

December Weather Was Extreme One In Vermont; Made Several Top 10 Lists

Floodwaters cover fields near Williston, Vermont on
December 19. The month was wild, with a destructive flood
combined with extreme warmth for the entire month in Vermont.

 I'll have a post later today with some wild weather news about the just-ended year of 2023, but I figure I'll start with an appetizer by reviewing December in Vermont.  

There's plenty to cover. If you thought the weather in December was weird, you're absolutely right. 

 Burlington, Vermont had its second warmest, second wettest and eighth least snowy December on record. It's very rare to have so many different items in the Top 10 list. 

INCREDIBLE WARMTH

December, 2023 would have easily been the warmest on record if not for the absolutely bonkers month of December, 2015, which was off the charts warm by nearly seven degrees above the old record. The just past month was an impressive 2.2 degrees hotter than what until now had been the second warmest December. 

The warmth was consistent, and most prominent at night. Burlington only had the fifth warmest average high temperatures for December, but easily the second warmest average minimums (again behind the tropical December, 2015).

An impressive 13 days during December never went below freezing, and the low for the entire month was a balmy 14 degrees.  I believe all Decembers in Burlington dating back to the 1880s - except for 2015 and 2023 - got into the single number at least once. Most had below zero readings. 

All of Vermont was - of course - wicked warm in December.  Many places, including Montpelier, Rutland and Bennington, were more than 7 degrees warmer than average. The average low temperature during December in Rutland was a whopping 10 degrees above normal. 

The warmth was also widespread beyond Vermont. It looks like all of the Lower 48 might have had a milder than  normal December. Areas around the western Great Lakes and northern Plains were especially warm. 

Normally frigid International Falls, Minnesota, known as the "Icebox of the Nation", was a whopping 15.8 degrees warmer than normal and never got below zero during December.  Mornings there are normally below zero in late December and it's been as cold as minus 41 degrees there during the month

I'll have complete national statistics for December in a week or two.

RAINFALL

December was punctuated by yet another destructive Vermont flood, so of course it was wet. Burlington saw 5.78 inches of rain during the month, easily the second wettest on record. Only 1973, with 5.95 inches, was soggier. 

Not only was December warm and wet, it was also gloomy.
Most days were overcast and fog was frequent, like
in this scene from St. Albans on December 28

Woodstock measured 6.05 inches during the month, and more than half of that came during the December 18-19 flood storm. 

The damage tally for the flood is still being assessed, but I'm sure at least parts of Vermont will be declared a disaster area again. 

And that wasn't the only impressive storm of the month. Systems on December 3-4 and December 10-11 deposited fairly heavy rains in the valleys, certainly enough to pre-soak the ground for the December 18 deluge.

Those two early month storms also featured heavy, wet snow in high elevations, which each cut power to more than 10,000 Vermont homes and businesses. So definitely a rough month. 

The month was remarkably gloomy as well.  I count 23 out of 31 days that were overcast.  December is normally a cloudy month, but 2023 was especially so. We had a number of foggy days as well, especially toward the end of the month. 

SNOWFALL

You'd think with such a wet December, a fairly big portion of the precipitation would fall as snow. In the valleys, that definitely wasn't the case. Burlington only mustered 2.9 inches of snow, making this the 8th least snowy December. 

For comparison, that super wet December, 1973 in Burlington included a respectable 24.1 inches of snow for the month. 

Other valley locations were on the light side with snow, too. St. Johnsbury, for instance, only had 7.5 inches, more than a foot below average. 

OUTLOOK

As always, it's not really worth it to get into any detailed forecasts beyond five days out. But, for laughs and giggles, the temporary period of relatively quiet weather we're enjoying as the New Year dawns might not last. 

Long range forecasts into the middle of the month suggest it might turn stormier, though it could stay relatively warm. Not bonkers warm like December was, but still, a little milder than average, in general. 

That doesn't mean we won't have a hard core winter. There's plenty of time for that in the second half of January, February and much of March. 

Vermont Maple Syrup Production In December? Whacky Climate Change Partly The Cause

A tanker truck loading up sap at a maple sugaring 
operation in St. Albans, Vermont in March, 2020. That's
usually the season for sugaring in Vermont, but recent
December warmth has prompted some sugarers
to produce off season. 

Now that it's gotten a little colder, I guess maple sugaring season is done.

Wait, what?  

As any good Vermonter knows, sugaring season comes in March and April. That's when we start crawling out of the depths of winter. 

We start getting those chilly nights and mild days, which makes the sap flow in the maples and we start boiling away to make syrup. 

But, mainly due to a  better understanding of maple trees and a little bit due to climate change making our winters gonzo, some maple producers got some production in this December.  

As NBC5 reported, the warm spell that helped produce Vermont's destructive floods on December 18 and 19 had a tiny silver lining. 

Branon Family Maple Orchard in Fairfield made about 300 gallons of syrup during that episode. Temperatures briefly cooled down and they had to stop. But we had another warm week in the closing days of December, so Branon probably made more.

Other sugar makers in Vermont have reported making syrup, too.

Large maple producers like Branons tap trees early, since they have such an expanse of maple forests to cover. If sugaring weather is unseasonably favorable, like it was in the past couple of weeks, they can produce. 

Don't worry about the trees. It's not like sugar maples have a limited amount of sap and that's it. As long as it's warm, the maples will draw moisture from the ground to produce sap.  And the amount of sap taken from trees through maple sugaring is negligible, as far as the tree is concerned. 

At least we don't think so. Advances in technology and methods have greatly increase yields from Vermont maple trees.  That's one of the many things the University of Vermont  Proctor Maple Research Center is planning to look into as it launches a detailed maple industry and forest sustainability study.   

The same thing happened last year. After a brief, relatively harsh cold wave around Christmas, 2022, near record warmth hit Vermont in the closing days of December and the beginning of January, 2023.

Vermont is the largest maple producer in the United States, making about half the total for the whole nation. The biggest maple syrup producer in the world is Quebec. 

The UVM Proctor Maple Research Center is wo

Springtime After Christmas: More Rain In Vermont, Too

Since it was so springlike yesterday in Vermont, I dragged
out my tools and started a bit of early spring garden
cleanup.  It's been remarkably warm this month. 

Honestly, it really feels like early spring.

Yesterday, Boxing Day, had me outdoors on a really nice early April late December day. 

The air had the muddy, organic aroma of spring promise. For the first time in days, low clouds and fog broke up for a few hours to bring us some sunshine. 

The weather surely had many of us wanting go out and start your spring garden cleanup tasks, at least in the corners of the garden that weren't too soggy. Of course that's exactly what I did Tuesday.

It was both nice and disconcerting out there, me with no jacket, comfortable in a thick-ish black t-shirt, primping up at least some corners of the perennial beds. It was only 50 degrees or so, but with light winds and a little sun and getting some exercise, you didn't need to bundle up at all. 

 It was even more strange seeing tentative new fresh green daffodil shoots poking up.  That's the fourth warm December in a row that's happened. 

This ain't your grandfather's Christmas season, that's for sure. 

April, oops I mean December showers returned after dark last evening, and we're back to the fog, gloom, drizzle and light rain we've gotten used to this month. At least it's not pouring, like it has on some occasions in the past few weeks. 

The strange warmth will continue the rest of the week, but will begin to fade toward the end of the week. Temperatures will remain a little above normal through the New Year holiday, but not as warm as today and tomorrow. 

Daytime highs are not extreme.  The thick clouds today and tomorrow will hold us in the 40s, which is about 15 degrees on the warm side. Records for warmest daily lows for the date are in jeopardy today and tomorrow. Many of us won't go under 40 degrees until Thursday night. That's insanely warm. About average for early May. 

Rainfall will keep coming and going amid a complex mess of weather disturbances meandering around and near a sprawling upper level low pressure in the Midwest, heading toward the southeast as forecast.

No one system will really wind up to provide any huge dumps of rain.  So we'll deal with the risk of periods of light rain, especially this afternoon and during the day tomorrow.  There's no worries about flooding. 

By Friday, at least some of the higher elevations will see a return of some snow, though nothing heavy. We might eventually see dustings of snow in the valleys, too.  Gee, what a shock for New Years.

Long range forecasts suggest that January will be more wintry than December has been. Then again that's an awfully low bar. 

All this winter warmth is not to say frigid weather is impossible. We can still get bitingly cold months here in Vermont.  It's the luck of the draw. As recently as January, 2022, we had a much colder than average month with numerous days below zero.

But with climate change, those bitterly cold months will be less frequent.  The dice that decide whether it will be a cold or warm month are now definitely loaded in favor of the warm side. 

You're a lot less likely to be able to tell your grandchildren you trudged through four feet of snow on your walk to school, uphill both ways.  

Atmospheric Rivers, Famous On U.S. West Coast, Are A Peril To East, Including Vermont, Too

The atmospheric river that caused the big New England
flood of December 18-19 turned the tiniest stream
in front of my house into a raging river too.

 The December flooding that befell New England, especially Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, was largely the handiwork of an atmospheric river.  

If you've heard of atmospheric rivers, you probably associate them with storms that sometimes slam into the West Coast during the winter. 

But these so-called atmospheric rivers can come off of the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, too. As we've seen lately, these sometimes have disastrous results. 

As the Washington Post describes it in an article published Thursday: 

"Atmospheric rivers - jets of intense precipitation that curl around powerful ocean storms - are generally considered a West Coast phenomenon. But it turns out a top tier atmospheric river - rated Category 5 on a scale of 1 to 5 - was part of the East Coast storm that killed at least five people and cut power to more than 800,000 customers this week."

Every state along the eastern seaboard from Florida to Maine - including Vermont - saw at least four inches of rain and wind gusts of over 50 mph. 

The December storm will almost certainly join the long list of weather disasters this year costing $1 billion or more. 

Atmospheric rivers are long narrow corridors of deep tropical moisture that are pulled into the mid-latitudes by storms. These atmospheric rivers usually aren't that wide in the grand scheme of things. The one that just hit us in New England was probably about 400 miles wide.

But they can be thousands of miles long. Some of the atmospheric rivers that strike the West Coast extend as far west as Hawaii, which is why those storms are often dubbed a "Pineapple Express."

The distance between Los Angeles and Honolulu by the way is about is about 2,500 miles.

The reason we hear so much more about atmospheric rivers on the West Coast than elsewhere is because of geography.

The West Coast atmospheric rivers that come generally west to east across the Pacific encounter California, Oregon and Washington with land that rises from sea level to mountains in perpendicular to the flow of this wet air.  

That atmospheric rivers collision with mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada forces the air to rise.   The rising air forces all that moisture in the atmospheric river to condense in rain and snow, which dumps big time on the Pacific coast. 

One reason why the December flooding was actually worse than the already bad inundation in Vermont was for the same reason California gets slammed by those atmospheric rivers,

The one last week that came off the Atlantic approached New England from the southeast. The air flow was only partly perpendicular to the north/south oriented Green Mountains, so the rising air releasing moisture was impressive, but not as efficient as it was in New Hampshire and Maine.  

Map shows strong atmospheric river hitting the Northeast
and a weaker one hitting California on December 18.
Map and data from the Center for Western Weather
and Water Extremes. 

The White Mountains of New Hampshire and the mountains of western Maine run generally southwest to northeast. That was a perfect arrangement to wring out the most rain possible.

Other historic storms in New England - including Vermont  - were products of atmospheric rivers.   The Great Flood of 1927 in Vermont also stemmed from an atmospheric river off the Atlantic Ocean. 

In some unlucky years, you can have multiple atmospheric rivers. In October 1996, an episode caused severe flooding in eastern New England, and another one in November the year triggered serious flooding in eastern New York.

Atmospheric rivers can also cause flood disasters far from a coastline. One such event in May, 2010, caused what was probably the worst flood in Tennessee history. 

These atmospheric rivers are surprisingly common along the East Coast, actually. One estimate pegs the number per year to about 40 in the Mid-Atlantic states, though they are seldom severe enough to cause significant flooding. 

Atmospheric rivers are categorized in a one to five ranking system, similar to tornadoes. Not surprisingly, the one we had on December 18 was a Category 5, the most severe you can get. 

But here's something to worry about. As the Washington Post points out, atmospheric rivers have been around ever since there was an actual atmosphere on Earth.

Climate change, though, is tending to make them worse, in general. Per WaPo:

"....data suggests they're becoming wetter. Winter is the fastest-warming season run the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and warmer air can hold and transport more water and thus release more of it. In fact, for every degree Fahrenheit the air temperature rises, the air can hold 4 percent more water. Most atmospheric rivers happen in the cool season."

The bottom line for us in Vermont is: Most atmospheric rivers will remain tame and not cause too many problems. But a growing percentage of them will cause trouble, expense and danger like the one a week ago did. 

 

Scenes From A Vermont Flood, In Photos And Video

The Lamoille River blasting through Fairfax Falls
near Cambridge, Vermont on December 19

 It's odd to see a serious flood in Vermont in the early winter. 

This  year, though, it happened.  Weather geek that I am, I documented it with photos and video. 

Photos are first, and below those are two videos. One shows the Winooski river in various spots between Richmond and Winooski. The other shows the Lamoille River between Cambridge and Milton. 

Severe flooding in Vermont is obviously unwanted. Especially during the Christmas season. 

I don't want to say anything positive about the disaster. Except that, since we had to endure it, there was an almost stark, terrible beauty about it. 

The landscape was on the edge of winter. But there was water everywhere. The sounds and odor of rushing, flooding river water is what we expect during the spring thaw, or after extreme summer storms, or while an errant late summer or early autumn tropical storm passes through Vermont. 

Somber December colors lit up with glimpses of sun
and blue skies during this week's flooding. This
is at submerged North Williston Road between
Essex and Williston, Vermont. 

This time, it hit while Vermont should have been freezing up and whitening up with snow.  

The flood hit just a few days before the winter solstice, the darkest time of year. 

The flood went on to make things even darker. Even as glimpses of sun and snow flurries mixed in with the images of high water. 

It was a strange disaster, but I guess in the age of climate change, we now have to expect more and more weather weirdness. 

Only a boat would have gone the speed limit of 35
mph on North Williston Road during the December 18-19 flood.

 

The Winooski River blasts past buildings in Winooski,
Vermont, as seen from the Chase Mill in Burlington on
December 19, 2023   

The Lamoille River comes perilously close to a house
in Fairfax, Vermont during snow showers on Dec 19, 2023.    

The Lamoille River blocking access to the "Wrong Way Bridge"
area of Route 15 in Cambridge, Vermont while damaging
properties on December 19 2023.     

TWO VIDEOS

First video shows flooding along the Winooski River at various locations between Richmond and Williston, Vermont. Click on this link to view the video, or if you see the image below:

The second video also shows serious flooding, this time along the Lamoille River between Cambridge and Milton, Vermont. Again click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Video: Sunday/Monday Storm Not Quite As Predicted, But Still Had Its Dark Season Beauty

Aftermath of early week storm in St. Albans, Vermont.
I made a video, shown in this post of the storm from
start to finish. Dark December gloom to bright
snow/sun. 

 As I previously reported, the storm early this week did not have the oomph some forecasters had expected.  

But it was beautiful in its own way.

Things went from dark to rainy to winter wonderland, at least here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Video at the bottom of the post shows how the landscape changed in the two days of the storm, and the day after.

First half of the video was dark and rainy Sunday. Not a great day for outdoor stuff, but it did have its own murky, quiet beauty as the rain fell and dark clouds hung overhead on a brief December day.

Monday, we woke up to snow, which continued much of the day. The snow certainly brightened the surrounding. Wet snow clung to every single little twig. Luckily, at least in my area, the snow fell short of causing much damage to my trees.

Day after the storm featured a bright and sunny interval. It was all too brief, but it was a stunning display of early winter gorgeousness.

Anyway, enjoy the video below. Click on this link to watch, or if you see the image below, click on that to watch. The vid is a nice excursion through changeable Vermont weather. 

December In Vermont Was Wet, Mild And Wild

A heavy, wet snowstorm mid-month in December cut
power to over 100,000 Vermonters. A second storm
consisting of high winds caused another big round
 of power outages a week later. 

 We closed out the year in Vermont on a very mild note on New Year's Eve, which ended a mild, wild December, 2022 in the Green Mountain State. 

I'll have info on the year 2022 and how it sugared out in an upcoming post. But for now, we'll focus on a pretty extreme, eventful December. 

First, let's look at the mild aspect of the month. The mean temperature in Burlington was 31.6 degrees. That was good enough to place December, 2022 as the fifth warmest December on record. 

This is the third December in a row that is in the top ten warmest for Burlington. December, 2020 was seventh hottest and December 2021 as fourth hottest.

Eight of the top 10 warmest Decembers were since 2000. Though a note: There are actually 15 Decembers in the top 10 warmest list due to some ties. 

Six days during December in Burlington reached into the springlike 50s for highs. Only 12 days failed to go above freezing. 

Burlington is also one of the few cities in the northern tier of the United States that never saw subzero temperatures in December. 

It was warm elsewhere in Vermont, as you'd expect. Montpelier was a whopping 6.9 degrees above normal St. Johnsbury was a solid 4.7 degrees on the warm side. Southern Vermont wasn't as warm relative to average, but still on the mild side.   

It was a wet month, too, though amounts were really variable. Rutland and St. Johnsbury each received about 4.2 inches of rain and melted snow, which for them was at least an inch above normal. Burlington was only slightly above average for precipitation.

I'm not really trusting the Montpelier December precipitation total of 1.38 inches. I don't think the melted snow from the slushy storm on December 16-17 was fully captured there. 

December in Vermont was a month of power outages. Two storms within a week of each other each cut power to more than 100,000 Vermonters.

The first, on December 16-17 was a wet snowfall that accumulated to as much as 22 inches in Warren. The heavy, wet snow cut power to people across the state, especially in southern Vermont. Power was barely fully restored on December 23 when the second storm hit. 

That was the infamous "bomb cyclone" that affected most of the nation with snow, high winds and other dangerous conditions.

The storm caused every imaginable weather in Vermont it seemed. It started with a thump of wet snow. Then, the worst of it came with the high winds that were most responsible for the new round of power outages.

Winds gusted to as much as 71 mph in Burlington, its second highest wind gust on record.  The winds were accompanied by thunderstorms, breaks in the clouds and large rainbows.  The day also featured bursts of heavy rain. That, combined with melting snow from the previous week's storm led to flooding that closed roads in parts of central and southern Vermont especially.

Then, in the evening, Vermont saw crashing temperatures, white outs and black ice that made roads virtually impassable. 

After a few cold-ish days, springtime hit about four months early. Record high temperatures were recorded region-wide, including 58 degrees in Burlington and 61 degrees in Montpelier.

The low temperature in Burlington on December 31 was 51 degrees, the second highest "low" temperature for any date in December. 

As always, it's hard to predict how the next month will turn out.  Generally speaking, long range forecasts call for above normal temperatures more often than not during the first half of January. After that, it's anyone's guess.

Even Today's Vermont Snow Forecast Is Tricky, Never Mind Rest Of The Month

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
released this snowfall forecast map for later today.
Decent snows seem likely southwest of Vermont, but
the Green Mountain State looks like it will get a
dusting to two inches. We'll see how it plays out! 

As I've said in previous posts, it's especially hard to predict the weather this month. Even today's forecast is pretty tricky. 

Snow is moving toward Vermont this morning, but how much of it will actually get here? 

Current forecasts have most of Vermont barely squeezing out an inch or two, with even less than that north and east of Interstate 89. A few places in southwestern Vermont could squeeze out two inches of snow this evening. 

That said, this is a tiny bit more than previously forecast, and during periods of steadier snow this evening, even this little bit of snow will be enough to slicken up the roads. 

Be careful if you have to drive. At least the thin snow cover most of us will receive will brighten up the landscape a bit and give things a more holiday season feel. 

You'll see on radar that the snow coming in from the southwest will look like it will dump more than forecast. A good slug of snow wants to come in today but will run out of gas in route. Areas south and west of Albany, New York can expect three to six inches of snow out of this storm system. Same might be true in southwestern New England, like in parts of Connecticut. 

There's been so much frost in St. Albans, Vermont this 
week that it looks like there's a dusting of snow on the
ground. There isn't yet. That's just lots of frost.

But the moisture is encountering dry air as it gets here, so the initial snow will evaporate on the way down from the clouds. 

Then, as the system from the west comes closer, a new storm will form off the coast, stealing the moisture from that weaker system in New York. 

Dry air will flood back into Vermont on the north winds created by the coastal system. That'll shut off the snow pretty quickly tonight. 

The wild card is how much the dry air will evaporate the snow.  And how strong that push of snow is that's coming at us from the southwest.  

Interestingly, those predicted snowfall amounts southwest of Albany and in and around Connecticut have pretty drastically increased in the past few days.

Will the snow later today over-perform in Vermont? It's possible, but don't count on it. 

LATER WEEK

If meteorologists think today's forecast is tricky, they're really at a loss for a potential storm late in the week. There's still no consistency as to whether it will come close enough to give us a snowstorm, a mix, or pretty much nothing at all. 

We do know a storm will be crossing the nation, causing all kinds of weather problems on the way. We just don't know the path it will take once it gets near the East Coast. 

At least we have a good handle on what will happen between Monday and Thursday. It'll just be rather cold, and pretty quiet. 

 

First Totally Subfreezing Day Of The Winter In NW Vermont

Despite clear skies over Vermont this afternoon, 
temperatures in the Champlain Valley didn't rise
above freezing for the first time since March 28

 It doesn't look like the temperature made it above freezing in Burlington, Vermont today.  That would make this the first totally subfreezing day since March 28.  

Today's chill is despite wall to wall sunshine this afternoon.  As we well know, the sun angle is very low this time of year, so it doesn't do a great job of heating us up.  A cold flow of air from the north easily overwhelmed the sun's lame "heat." 

It was actually a little colder today in the Champlain Valley than in much of the rest of Vermont. That is opposite the usual state of affairs.

 This is cold, dense air, so it tends to hug the valleys. There's no mountains to block the air from Quebec, so it chills us down nicely.  The coldest air can't get up and over the Green Mountains, so it's a little warmer there. But not by much..

The skies will be clear tonight. The night will be long. It's December after all.  So we'll have a cold one, with the warmer spots in the teens and the colder spots in the single digits. That's nothing unusual for this time of year, of course. But we were spoiled by the warm, if murky weather earlier in the week,. 

The record low in Burlington Saturday morning is 9 below, and it will be nowhere near that.

Interestingly, one computer model has much of Vermont going below zero tonight, but that model is wrong and an outlier.  The model apparently assumes a snow cover this time of year. 

Snow cover makes clear, calm winter nights much colder than they otherwise would be. Since there's no snow, we won't have that extra refrigeration. 

One thing that worries me is that a clear night like this will make some nice, smooth ice on ponds.  It'll be tempting to go ice skating, but don't do it!!!!!!

The ice will be too thin, and you'll likely fall through.  It doesn't take long to die in super cold water if you fall through ice. 

Looking ahead, we have a relative cold period to get through through the middle of the week, with temperatures just a tad cooler than average. There might be a little snow Sunday night, but it won't amount to anything special.  Areas north and east of Interstate 89 might well get nothing at all.

There is the potential for a larger storm at the end of next week, but we really don't know if it will happen, and if it does, what kind of storm. We have to wait and see. 

Video: Warm, Dreary, Rainy, Foggy: Not The Christmas Themed Weather We Want

Christmas lights and car head lights try to cut through
the gloom in downtown St. Albans, Vermont on Wednesday.
Dark and dreary has been the theme lately.

 As is often the case, I take videos of the weather and nature of my surroundings. So of course I was out on a wet, warm, gloomy misty December Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont grabbing a few scenes of the day. 

This time of year, we're really getting into the Christmas spirit and Ma Nature usually helps. We very often have at least dustings of snow in the first week of December, if not bonafide snowstorms. 

So far, at least, not this year. Wednesday was early November redux, if we ever have a normal November and December again.

Temperatures were in the mid-50s, close to 20 degrees on the warm side. It was damn dark all day, with a thick overcast, plenty of mist and fog, and occasional rain, which sometimes came down pretty hard. 

We never actually had daylight on Wednesday. It was more like a dreary dusk all day. As you can see in the video, the Christmas lights of downtown St. Albans struggled mightily to cut through the gloom. 

Next in our video, we take a trip on some local roads, to enjoy plowing through the puddles and and enjoying the gray sky, gray landscape and gray fog.

The last part of the video is when I retreated home to my very muddy yard. The piddling little stream we call the Woof River that goes past my property looked pretty healthy too.

To be honest, there is a subtle, quiet beauty in all this rainy darkness, as you can see in the video.

The dark, rainy misty landscape in northwestern Vermont
Wednesday didn't exactly scream "Christmas season."

Look on the bright side, and there are a few. The ground is still unfrozen, and all this extra moisture is seeping into the ground. 

That's plenty of water for winter snowmaking. It also sets us up for a good start in the spring, and gives us a bit of a reserve in case April and May are dry, as they often have been in recent years. 

The forecast is looking up, sort of, if you're a fan of more normal and wintry December weather.  We  Temperatures will sink to levels that are much closer to normal for this time of year.  We should even see some sun come out occasionally over the next few days. 

There's not really any snow to speak of in the forecast for the upcoming week. At least according to current forecasts. A few places might get a snowflake or two Sunday, but that's about it. However, there's plenty of time for the weather patterns to change, and provide us with a nice traditional white Christmas.

To view this moody video, you can either click on this link. Or iv the image of the video is visible below on your device, click on that. 

Do Snow-Free Early Winters In Vermont Doom The Entire Season To Snow Drought?

Another gloomy, warm, drizzly and snow free morning
in St. Albans, Vermont today.  Early winters with a 
lack of snow often, but not always lead to 
lackluster total winter snowfall.

 So far, December, 2022 in Burlington, Vermont has yielded a whopping trace of snow. This after just three inches in November.  

There's no snow to speak of in the immediate forecast, though for all we know the second half of December could turn out blizzardy. There's just no way to know.

Nonetheless, I looked at past lame starts to the snow season through the Burlington, Vermont National Weather Service office's tremendous climate pages on their web site. 

It seems that more often than not, a slow start to winter means the overall snow season is lackluster. But that's certainly not always the case.

It really isn't a surprise that the November and Decembers in the winters that had the least snowfall in Burlington all had modest accumulations as well.

I also looked at the top 10 list of least snowy Decembers on record in Burlington. This actually involves 12 Decembers and winters since there were a couple of ties in the list.

Of the 12 least snowy Decembers nine of those entire winters ended up with below normal snowfall. Three of those winters were in the top 10 list for least snowy seasons.

One of them, 1992-93 was among the snowiest winters on record, even though that December was the fifth least snowy December in the listings.

That's not to say we know anything about how this winter will turn out.  It's just fun looking at the statistics in an attempt to read the tea leaves. 

December, 2022 is still young, so there's still plenty of time to get socked by a lot of snow.  Or a pattern change that could yield an overall snowy winter. But at this point, I'd judge the chances of a snowy upcoming winter as a little less than 50/50.

And those chances will probably decline if we fail to get snow for the rest of the month. 

Video: A Quiet Lake Champlain Prepares For Winter

The quietest time on Lake Champlain is now. The summer
is long gone, and winter activity is awaiting a nice 
freeze over. 

 This past Sunday, a day after a super windy day and the day before a sort of, kind of windy day, it was wonderfully calm.  

I happened to be working near Lake Champlain, in and around Swanton, Vermont.  

It was a terrific, quiet early December day in which the lake was clearly preparing itself for winter.  And of course I had to make a quick video.

It was pretty silent. The birds, the summer vacationers, the swimmers and the boaters were long gone.  The summer camps were all buttoned up for the winter. The only noise was the subtle splashing of a few ducks in the water.

Activity returns to the lake soon. This part of the lake freezes over pretty early.  Ice fishing enthusiast will soon take over with their shanties and snowmobiles and such.  Maybe a few ice skaters will glide through this part of the lake too, if the ice is smooth enough and not much snow falls. 

I's been on the mild side lately, so no ice yet.  But there were hints of what was to come. A little ice had formed on exposed rocks and branches that were hit by small waves when the wind was blowing a little the night before. 

Any ice out there is still fleeting. It'll stay mild for at least a few more days, so the winter people will have to wait awhile. For now, the lake is at its quietest, most somber time of year. 

If you can't see the video image below, click on this link to watch this peaceful video. Or, if you see the image below, click on it to view. 

This December's Weather Will Be A Real Wild Card. Here's Why

NOAA on November 30 issued this long range
forecast covering December 8 to 14. It featured
enhanced chances of colder than normal weather
over most of the United States. 

 I've noticed some very conflicting longer range weather forecasts for December, at least for everything after the middle of the upcoming week. 

That's because there are at least two big forces battling it out. Whichever one wins will greatly affect whether its warm, or cold, or snowy or rainy or dry.

The big chatter in social media circles among weather geeks is the Greenland Block gradually setting up. I mentioned this one the other day in a previous post. 

A Greenland block is when massive high pressure sets up over and near Greenland.  When this happens, the jet stream over North America gets squashed further south than it usually is. 

When the jet stream is south like that, it tends to get colder in much of the United States. The jet stream, suppressed to the south, opens the door to frigid Canadian air that can flow southward. Sometimes, the cold air interacts with storm systems passing through, and you can - but not always - get big snowstorms in the eastern United States.

Here in Vermont, it often, but again not always gets cold when there's a Greenland block.  Big snowstorms usually go too far to our east to affect us much, but not always. 

However, with all this in mind, there's another factor in play here big time, at least for now. 

Fighting the Greenland block is a ridge of warm high pressure setting up over and near the southeastern United States. Depending upon how strong this ridge gets, it can make it on the warm side in Vermont. 

Nobody is quite sure if the Greenland block or the southeastern ridge will dominate. For either, it could be win, lose or draw.  Or one can dominate, then the other. 

You see the problem. Long range forecasts are always dicey. With this battle going on, any forecast beyond a few days is very suspect. Take those predictions with a grain of salt. 

To illustrate the forecast iffiness, the first image in this post is the long range 8 to 14 day forecast for the United States that was issued on November 30.  It covers the period from December 8 to 14.  It kind of shows the Greenland block winning, with cold air favored over most of the nation. You can see hints of the southeastern ridge with warm air forecast near the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

This forecast also anticipated below normal precipitation over New England, as the Greenland block would smush storms too far to our south to affect us that much. 

NOAA yesterday issued this 6 to 10 day forecast that
covers pretty much the same period as the forecast
map above. Now it features mostly warmer than
average temperatures over the eastern half of the nation.
Forecasts this month beyond a few days will be
especially iffy due to questions about how two
large weather systems play with each other. 

Yesterday, the six to 10 outlook was issued, which will cover the period from December 9 to 13.  That's almost the same time period from the earlier, longer range forecast I just mentioned above.

Instead of cold weather dominating the nation, the chill is relegated to the western third of the nation. Warm air would bathe most of the eastern United States. The southeastern warm ridge for the win!  

This updated forecast issued yesterday also favors wetter than normal weather over New England. Because we'd be close to the battle line between cold and warm, so that's where storms would go.

The other big questions are how long will the Greenland block last and how strong will it remain while it's there?  Same issues for the warm southeastern ridge.  Does it move away? Weaken over time? Strengthen? Who knows?

Between the two forecasts I described above, I'd give the edge to the one that was issued yesterday.  Only because it's more recent and covers a time period not as far off in the future as the prediction issued on November 30.

Even so, don't count on either forecast being correct.  I always tell people don't count on forecasts for more than four or five days beyond the current date. That's really, especially true for the rest of this month.  

Whatever happens, we'll probably see an active weather pattern through most of December. That suggests fairly frequent storms, but we don't know whether they will be strong or weak.  We don't know if they will be snow, rain or a mix.  And we don't know how many of these storms will come close enough to Vermont to make a big difference in our weather. 

In the short term, the pattern favors warmth.  A couple of modest storms will come through midweek. They'll produce mostly rain, with maybe just a little ice in the coldest pockets. 

If you want to know what will happen after about Thursday, you're on your own.  I'll let you know later in the week.