Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.

Warm Air Already Over-Performing In Some Spots In Vermont Enjoy, Won't Last Long

This month's snow caught us off guard before we put
deck furniture away. The warm ground allowed the 
snow to mostly melt (see background) but no warmth
beneath the deck allowed the snow to stay. We're hoping
warm weather today and tomorrow will melt the
deck snow so we can properly
store all the summer stuff. 

Sorry for the late start with the weather today, as I am a little under the weather. No worries though, just a bit of a high pressure system in my sinuses. I should be better in no time. 

So, it's warm out there for a change.  At least compared to what we've had to deal with. In some areas, it's even warmer than we thought it would be, which is a nice switch. 

The forecast high in Burlington today was 47 degrees. That would make today the hottest day since November 8. But the forecast is off a bit. That's because it was already 48 degrees as of 10 a.m. 

The milder air is really funneling up the Champlain Valley, which explains the toasty air there. In the rest of Vermont, it looks like temperatures will end up in the 40s this afternoon, close to the forecast highs. 

It's nice to see the last of the snow finally leaving my yard up in St. Albans after being there since November 10. 

Tonight will be balmy, too, at least by late November standards. I wouldn't exactly rush to put the air conditioners back on the windows. But still, a low of 40 degrees isn't bad for the time of year.  

The first wave of rain will come through tonight. Sorry, early season skiers!  It'll only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take, so nothing to worry about. 

Tomorrow will bring us the peak of the "heat wave" as readings will get up into the 50s in many places. A 60 degree reading in one of the warmest towns isn't out of the question, but don't hold your breath. 

Although a shower might come at any time Wednesday, we'll probably have a lull during the day. 

The warm air can't last forever, especially with the late autumn/early winter weather pattern we find ourselves in this year. 

The cold front will come through before dawn Thanksgiving, throwing another band of rain showers at us, then shutting off the warm air. Although the colder air will come in aloft quickly, it'll take time to make it down to where we live.

So Thanksgiving itself will be OK, with clouds, a little sun, some blustery winds and highs near 40 or so. 

The cold air will really come in Thanksgiving night and Friday. Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will crank up big time.  So big that some of that snow should hit the central and northern Green Mountains for a time.  Even the valleys will get a little snow.  The ski areas, though should get a bit of recovery snow - maybe three to six inches. 

During Friday, the lake effect snows will shift southward, so the southern Green Mountains might pick up a little snow, too.

Saturday looks cold, too, but the snow showers should be drying up by then. 

The overall weather pattern heading well into December looks active and mostly cold. The next shot at snow and rain will come Sunday and Monday.  That storm might go a little to our west, which is why I'm thinking mixed precipitation on that one. 

We'll have more info once we get closer to that event, which I know you've seen me say a zillion times already. But it's true that forecasts more than a few days out can get a little questionable.  

After Cold Winter, U.S Finally Gets A Glimpse of Spring; Vermont Only Gets Brief Edges Of It

Despite the vaguely mild weather today, it will be a
while yet until Vermont sees warm spring rain showers
like this one in St. Albans, Vermont, May, 2023.

Spring has sprung -  temporarily at least - in much of the nation following a brutally cold mid-February in many parts of the U.S.  

The warmth interrupted what had been a cold winter in the U.S. while most of the rest of the world stayed warm through the season. 

Some places that were bone chillingly cold suddenly felt like summer. 

As the Washington Post notes, it was 64 degrees Sunday in Aberdeen, South Dakota, breaking the record high of 60 for the date. Just five days earlier, it was 25 below in Aberdeen. 

Buffalo, Wyoming got to 61 degrees Sunday, breaking the old record high for the date by four degrees. 

Temperatures could flirt with 70 degrees as far north as South Dakota today, where rare winter red flag warnings are in effect for fire danger amid dry, windy conditions. 

The warmth in much of the nation comes after a spate of record cold in the middle of the nation and parts of the South last week. 

It looks like much of the central and southeastern United States should stay mostly on the warm side through the first week of March. 

Not so here in Vermont, though. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

In Vermont, we're far from any kind of record highs, but at least it's warmer than it's been. On Monday, the high temperature in Burlington reached 43 degrees.  I know that's not especially warm, but it's still the hottest it's been since January 1. 

If Monday's high of 43 holds for the month, only two Februaries since 2000 had lower high temperatures for the month. 

It's possible it could get even slightly warmer today, given how balmy the overnight was in at least parts of Vermont. It stayed at or above 40 degrees in Burlington continuously from 2 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. today, when the city finally dipped into the upper 30s. through 6 a.m today.

A chilly rain that will move in this afternoon will probably keep temperatures near 40 degrees, though. 

Historically, we've had lots of years in which January and February temperatures have never gotten past the low 40s. But, in the age of climate change, that's become rare 

Since 2000, only four Januarys had a highest temperature for the month cooler than 2025.  So far at least, there's only been two or three Februarys in the last quarter century with cooler monthly high temperature than this year..

To give you an idea of how warm it can get, today is the anniversary of what I consider the most bonkers February weather day in Vermont history.

The temperature in Burlington on February 25, 2017 soared to 72 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest February temperature on record by an incredible nine degrees. (The previous record high for the month was set two days earlier).

Also on February. 25, 2017, severe evening thunderstorms hit parts of the state an a tornado touched down in western Massachusetts. By just before midnight to complete the day, it was snowing in Burlington.

At least we're not going to go through those extremes in the near future, as we get back to what's going on in the here and now. 

With all the snow we had in the first three weeks of February, Burlington actually pulled ahead of snowfall for the season up to this point in the year.

But now, snowfall is suddenly lacking. For now, anyway. As of today, with no snow in the forecast, today we will slip just under the normal for snowfall up to this date. 

We'll still keep up fairly closely with normal seasonal snow, though. We do have a bit of snow in the forecast as the thaw ends Thursday night and early Friday.   It'll be solidly below freezing all day Friday, and signs point toward maybe a light to perhaps moderate snowfall Saturday 

The frigid air is really planning on rolling in here by Sunday and Monday.  Highs Sunday might not get out of the teens and we could see another excursion into subzero morning lows again Monday.  

Overall, extended forecasts are mixed.  March tend to be all over the place, with blizzards and intense cold one day, and mild sunshine a couple days later.  I have a feeling that's what we'll deal with this March, too.  

Record High Temperatures in Vermont, Surrounding Areas As Indian Summer Over-Performs

A very orange fall foliage hillside Monday in St. Albans
Vermont, which matched the record high temperatures
much of the region experienced today. 

 If you felt toasty as you were enjoying the lingering Vermont autumn foliage today, you weren't imagining things. 

Warm southwest breezes brought temperatures to record levels in and around the Green Mountain State today, October 21 

Burlington reached 77 degrees, edging out the old record of 76 degrees set in 1995. A final report wasn't in from St. Johnsbury as of early this evening, but they at least tied their record high of 77 set in 1963

Across the pond in Plattsburgh, New York, it was even warmer, soaring to a summer like 81 degrees. That broke the old record for the date of 80 set in 1979.

We've got two more days of balmy weather in Vermont before reality strikes. But don't worry that strike won't be brutal.

Forecasters are going with highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. If that comes true, we'll come close to, but probably not break record highs again. 

That not so brutal hit of reality on Thursday and Friday isn't so bad. We expect highs then to be in the 50s and lows in the 30s, which is actually pretty close to average for the season.

It could turn even colder toward Sunday and Monday, but again, if that happens, it will only be somewhat chillier than average (Highs in the 40s to near 50, lows in the 20s to near 30).

Plus, there's preliminary signs we could warm up dramatically again in about a week. 

This year has been remarkably warm so far and we are still on pace to have 2024 become the hottest year on record in Burlington. Unlike in other areas of the nation, though, daily record highs have been a little hard to come by in recent months. 

Monday's 77 degrees is only the second record high we've seen since early March. However, February brought us four daily record highs. It's been a really long time since Burlington recorded a record low for a date.

The last time we did have a record low was when the temperature reached 29 degrees on May 18, 2023. Sine that date, there have been a dozen record highs. 

A Wintry Period In Vermont, But Is A Warmer Reprieve In The Works?

Workers in snowy Taylor Park in St. Albans Thursday
install Christmas lights near a still oddly green 
maple tree. About an inch of snow fell there Thursday.

We survived the first wintry day in Vermont Thursday (I'm not really counting the light snow on November 1) so is this it? Is winter here to stay?  

Indications are, maybe not. We might see a warm reprieve mid month. More on that in a minute. 

The forecasts ahead of the wintry precipitation Thursday ended up being quite accurate. Most places got about an inch of snow, or just a wee bit more than that. This was close to the forecasts of about an inch.

There was a weird localized area of about two inches in and around Burlington, Colchester, Winooski and Essex The official total at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was 2.0 inches.  I'm not sure why. Those areas aren't usually the snow winners in any storm. 

Video scenes of the snow around St. Albans are at the bottom of this post. 

Temperatures actually stayed fairly mild overnight, as there was no real push of cold air behind the weakening storm that brought Thursday's snow. For most of us, temperatures stayed steady or actually went up a little last evening and overnight. 

Snow that didn't melt during the damp, overcast weather Thursday did so in many valleys last night. The snow cover was pretty, but short lived. 

We're not done with the cold weather, though. Another cold front is coming through later today, and that will keep us on the chilly side for a few days. Today will actually be kind of mild ahead of the front, with highs well into the 40s - about normal for this time of year.

After that, it gets pretty chilly again for a few days. Nothing wildly cold for this time of year, but you'll probably want your winter jackets. Highs Saturday through Monday will be in the 30s, with lows in the 20s. We could see some teens in the colder spots. 

Very little precipitation is in the cards for us over the next few days. There might be a few scattered showers with today's cold front, flurries in spots overnight, that's about it. The next shot of any light precipitation is Tuesday.   

But yeah, not exactly late season gardening weather, huh?  

Forecasts for six to ten days out from now indicate
most of the United States, including us here in
Vermont, are in for a switch to warmer weather. 

But there's hope for those of you (like me!) who haven't gotten their fall outdoor chores done yet. We have increasing signs of a pattern change for mid-month, probably starting later in the upcoming week.

Actually, almost the whole nation looks like it will be quite warm, with the heat centered in the Plains and western Great Lakes. They'll probably see some more record highs out that way in a little over a week or so.

Between climate change and El Nino, it seems hard to have any sustained cold anywhere lately. 

Long range forecasts are iffy but meteorologists seem pretty confident that we in Vermont will share in at least some relatively mild air mid-month.  I'm not yet sure how warm it will get, but it will certainly be toastier than this weekend will be. 

The first week of our potential warmer spell looks mostly dry, too, so you can get out there and get some last minute stuff done. 

Video: Scenes of snow around my house, Jackson the Weather Dog takes careful measurements and readings of the snow, and workers install Christmas lights in St. Albans Taylor Park amid the snow and near a still oddly green maple tree.

To view, click on this link, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Vermont October "Cold Snap" Really Isn't Cold, Barely Snowed Mountain Tops, Warmth To Return

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
put out this map Sunday showing storm totals 
from Friday into Sunday. Up to an inch of additional
rain fell after this in far northern Vermont. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

 I'm still amazed by how a spell of average weather can seem so chilly compared to how weirdly warm it is. 

And spoiler: The warmth will return this week.

It's true that Sunday, as long advertised, was not a nice day.  In far northern Vermont, it rained all day.  In fact here in St. Albans, at least light rain and drizzle has fallen continuously since late Friday night.  It was still drizzling as of 7 a.m. today. 

The extra rain in far northern Vermont really added up. By this morning my unofficial storm total was up to 3.2 inches. 

 The map in this post does not necessarily show rainfall for all of Sunday and Sunday night, so some northern areas really ended up especially soggy, too

Elsewhere in Vermont where there were only occasional showers under gray skies Sunday.  

Rainfall totals through 4:30 p.m. Friday shows widespread two to three inch rain totals throughout western Vermont, all of Bennington and Windham counties and some spots in the Northeast Kingdom.

Despite two record soakers in Burlington this month, the city hasn't quite made it yet into the top ten list of wettest Octobers. So far, 5.6 inches of rain has fallen in Burlington this month. The tenth wettest October had 5.81 inches, so we're close. 

 Depending on what happens toward next weekend, that could change, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

WINTRY? NOT REALLY

A colored tree lights up a gloomy morning in St 
Albans, Vermont today. Excuse the bad formatting,
Blogger won't let me position photos where 
they should be today. 

As semi-wintry as Sunday felt, it was actually a pretty average day for late October. High temperatures were a little cooler than average, low temperatures were near normal to slightly on the mild side. 

Mount Mansfield finally had its first snow, which for them was awfully late. To put it in perspective, the average date of the first snow flurries of the season in Banana Belt Burlington is October 15.  The summit of Vermont's highest peak usually gets a little snow way, way before that. 

If you thought Sunday's weather was icky, consider this. On Sunday's date in Burlington way back in 1969, 5.1 inches of snow fell. That 1969 snowstorm was an introduction to what would turn out to be arguably the harshest winter on record, if you consider the combination of very low temperatures and extreme snowfalls. 

Don't worry, we won't be seeing any winter conditions quite yet. 

TODAY

It's going to be tricky to scour out the clouds due to a temperature inversion trapping clouds beneath a layer of somewhat warmer air above.  

Dry air is trying to work in, and that could eventually break up the clouds this afternoon. The best shot at seeing the sun is in the lower Connecticut River Valley, and just maybe valleys of western Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  

As we've been saying for days, tonight will be chilly, but nothing odd for October.  Many areas away from the Champlain Valley will likely see a frost or freeze, which once again is awfully late for the first one of the season.

Much of the Champlain Valley is going to go another week at least without a frost.

BIG WARMUP

The warm air coming in this week is looking more and more impressive.  This won't necessarily be a big sunshiny and super dry warm spell, but still very odd for this time of year. 

At this point, Wednesday through Friday, it looks like a fair number of clouds will hold temperatures in the 65 to 72 degree range, so we will probably fall just short of daytime record highs. 

The air coming in is fairly humid for this time of year (not uncomfortable like summer, but still a little muggier than you'd expect in late October). That means nights, especially in the Champlain Valley will be ridiculously warm. Like leave your windows open warm. 

Lows should be in the upper 50s to maybe near 60 Wednesday and Thursday nights in the Champlain Valley and closer to 50 in central and eastern Vermont. This sets the stage for some possible record warm overnight lows Thursday and Friday. 

It'll probably turn cooler again next weekend. 

Winter will eventually get here. I noticed the first winter storm watches of the season today in Washington State and the northern Rockies. Eventually the cold air will get here. In fact, some long range forecasts call for colder than normal temperatures here during the first week in November

Friday Evening Update: A Surprise Brief Snow Thursday, A Balmy Friday, And Another Snowy Surprise Tonight?

A surprise burst of wet snow Thursday afternoon kept
St. Albans, Vermont looking a bit more wintry than
expected, but......

 Although overall forecasts for yesterday and last night's storm were pretty accurate, except for a two or three hour period where the predictions definitely went off the rails.  

The forecast called for a cold rain, mixed with a little wet snow or mixed precipitation close to the onset of the storm. That would have hit mostly the mountains and the Northeast Kingdom.

And that's what happened. At first. Then, a definitely unplanned burst of snow in the valley an hour or two after it started raining.  It wasn't that big a deal, of course. The snow quickly went to rain again as more warm air flooded in.

Video of the event is at the bottom of the post. Interesting how it goes from an ugly February day in Vermont, to one that's kind of pretty, then back to the drab again. 

It was a pretty dynamic system. So much so that lightning was detected in parts of Vermont later Thursday night. The fact the storm had such energy created more lift in the atmosphere. 

More lift means rising air, and more precipitation. But this lift also helped cool the atmosphere more than expected. At least for awhile before even more warm air flooded in. So, for an interval, at least, we had a period of snow.  

Otherwise, the storm played out as expected. There was some rain overnight, today was mild, and a winter throwback is coming tonight for parts of Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

WARM FRIDAY

The warm air peaked this morning, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50 in much of Vermont. 

....but it quickly warmed up again, and by Friday afternoon,
the same scene looked much more like March than February.

In Vermont, temperatures did not quite reach records, but it was surely much warmer than normal. 

Burlington just missed reaching a record high by one degree, as the high today was 45 degrees. 

Today's current record of 46, though, isn't impressive and I'm surprised it still exists. It's the lowest of any record daily highs of the year. Most record highs this time of year are in the 50s

In southern and eastern New England, and further south along the East Coast, record high temperatures were reported this morning. Boston tied its record high of 60 degrees, just six days after suffering through its coldest temperature since 1957. (It was 10 below in Boston last Saturday) 

Cold air usually bleeds in behind any cold front or storm.  Last Friday, behind the Arctic cold front, the temperature plummeted from the 20s above to near 20 below in the span of less than 24 hours. 

This time, the decline in temperatures has been much, much more leisurely, and much less dramatic than last Friday. By 5 p.m. today, much of Vermont was still near 40 degrees. But that's about to change. 

SNOWY RETURN

Kind of an interesting set up for this evening. A secondary cold front will more convincingly drop temperatures into the 20s. At the same time, an upper level disturbance will come east from the northeastern Great Lakes.

That sets us up for another good burst of snow in northern Vermont. Most places north of Route 4 should get some snow, but the main show will be along and north of Route 2. At least the snow will come in well after the Friday evening commute, so we don't have to worry about that.

Even in the northern Champlain Valley, up near St. Albans, Highgate, Swanton, places like that, we could see a quick two or three inches of snow later this evening and overnight. By the time you get down to Burlington, it might only be an inch or so. '

The snow will last longer along the spine of the Green Mountains and the western slopes. Especially from Sugarbush north. Those areas could see a decent three to six inches of snow, with locally up to eight inches in the ski areas.

That will freshen things up after last night and today's thaw. 

Saturday looks like a nice day for winter sports, too. Highs will get into the 20s, with a few low 30s in the warmer valleys. Enjoy it, because March in February is set to continue. 

A BIG WARM SPELL

Every day in the upcoming week will feature above freezing temperatures in Vermont. Signs are pointing toward a super warm spell toward Thursday and perhaps Friday. Temperatures could approach record highs in Vermont. Right now, forecasters are calling for readings to get past 50 degrees on Thursday. 

The record high on this upcoming Thursday in Burlington is 55 degrees. We'll see how that shakes out. 

No big storms are in the offing until Thursday night, when current forecasts seem to hint at a pretty decent slug of rain to come through. 

After Thursday, long range forecasts are tricky. But current hints are that temperatures will remain generally above normal through around February 24. There could be some colder days thrown in there, but most of the time, it would be kinda balmy for February.

Don't think for a minute that means winter is over. March can be a wintry beast. And I have a post coming up within the next couple of days that tells us there's a decent chance March could turn out to be this year's most wintry month.

Stay tuned! 

Video: The changeable weather on Thursday. First, the day was ugly in St. Albans, Vermont. Then suddenly, it wasn't. Then it was. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: