Is A Flash Drought Looming In Vermont/New England?

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor suddenly has
much of Vermont designated as "abnormally dry"
shown in areas shaded in yellow.
Abnormally dry can be a precursor to drought.

 Back in late May and early June, when everything was ultra soggy after weeks of rain, who among you thought that by early August we'd be on the verge of a drought.  

Well, here we are. The faucets from the sky have mostly shut off. Given the weather forecast, we're now at risk for what is known as a flash drought.

HOW FLASH DROUGHTS WORK

A flash drought is akin to a flash flood, although it obviously has the opposite effect.

As we know, a flash flood comes at you in a matter of minutes, turning placid brooks into raging torrents instantaneously. 

A flash drought isn't nearly that fast, but it's a lot quicker than a "traditional" drought, which usually takes months to build into something problematic. A flash drought develops within weeks.  

The Northeast had a flash drought late last summer and fall, which culminated in numerous forest fires, especially in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.

We were doing fine with ground water and such most of this year, especially given our wet spring and early summer. 

But during July, the rains began to falter. Now that we're into August, most of us are dry, aside from local downpours that have continued on and off, giving a very few of us a welcome, wet break. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, shows abnormal dryness popping up in several areas around New England and northern New York. 

 Under the Drought Monitor's terminology, "abnormally dry" doesn't mean you're in a drought, but if it doesn't rain soon, you will be.  

Last week, no area of Vermont was regarded as "abnormally dry." This week 72 percent of the state wins that designation. Only most of the Champlain Valley and parts of southern Vermont are still OK.

MOSTLY DRY, HOT FORECAST

If there is a Vermont drought developing, the next few days will certainly encourage it. 

Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Hazy, very warm, sunshine. Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms will pop up, fade, and then redevelop only to fade again.

At least 70 percent of us, if  not more, will see no rain today, or just a trifling sprinkle. A few towns could up to a quick half inch or more of rain. Or I should say, parts of some towns. The storms are so small that the north side of a particular community could get drenched while the south side stays dusty. 

The thunderstorms the formed yesterday acted like that. At least part of Middlebury got drenched by a local late afternoon storm while communities just to the north and south heard a few distant rumbles of thunder, then continued to water their wilting gardens. . 

A thunderstorm that appeared to be briefly severe blew up near Richmond/Jonesville shortly before 6 p.m. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington warned of 60 mph winds and large hail. Meanwhile, nearby Williston got no rain, 

Typical of our current weather pattern, the intense looking storm quickly faded to nothing without moving from its original position, . 

Today will be the "coolest" day for the next week. Highs will get well into the 80s. 

Weekend/Next Week

The potential flash drought will continue to build. It will stay hot and kind of humid Saturday through probably Tuesday, and pretty much rain-free. After that, it will probably stay very warm to hot, with only scattered rains. 

Here in Vermont, it's an official heat wave if you get three days in a row that reach 90 degrees or more. We should easily do that.  Some place could see four, five, or even six consecutive 90 degree days coming up.    

When it's dry, temperatures often get a little warmer than forecast.  When the ground is wet, some of the sun's energy goes into evaporation instead of heating the atmosphere. Drier conditions encourage the sun to heat the air more.

Temperatures have already started over-performing and we're just getting started. The forecast high yesterday in Burlington was 83 and it got to 87.  So, there's a chance the the forecast highs over the next few days might be even warmer than you're seeing here. 

The forecast high in Burlington today is 87, which makes sense, since we're doing a rinse and repeat of yesterday. The prediction for Saturday is 88 degrees in Burlington. But it could hit 90, I think, since there will be fewer clouds, and the atmosphere will have warmed some.

Then, the National Weather Service has highs Sunday through next Thursday as follows:  91,94,94,90,89.

As you can see, there's a chance  of six consecutive days of 90 or more running Saturday through Thursday. If it does, it will be only the eighth time in the past 130 years or so there were that many consecutive hot days in Burlington. 

 Three of the previous seven such streaks have occurred just since 2018, demonstrating how climate change has made it easier for big hot spells to invade. 

The offshore high pressure is so strong it will suppress the updrafts needed to form the usual summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Very few if any will get going this weekend and early next week. 

A cold front I previously mentioned possibly arriving later next Tuesday is probably going to be a no-show. Or if it does get here, it will be later, probably toward Wednesday or Thursday, and it will be far from impressive.

It could create some scattered thunderstorms, and drop temperatures slightly. All that will hit roughly a week from now, so the forecast is iffy and will probably change. But the bottom line is, we're in for some hot times for quite awhile 

Another 90 Degree Day In Vermont, 12 Measured So Far This Year At Burlington

Lots of hydrangeas soaking up the hot sun
today in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 The temperature at Burlington, Vermont reached at least 90 degrees today, the 12th day this year it got that warm.  

This puts us in pretty rare territory. It's only the 20th time in the past 125 years it's gotten to 90 degrees at least twelve times. 

At least the humidity is slightly better. It was oppressive this morning, with a dew point of around 70 degrees. 

This afternoon, the dew point was around 60, which really isn't all that bad. It's just the temperature that's kind of rough if you don't like sweating it out. 

Earlier forecasts had indicated it might get to 90 degrees again tomorrow, but now that's looking less likely. As mentioned this morning, the weather pattern has already started to shift to a northwest flow, so it's going to start getting cooler.

Only slowly at first. Updated forecasts, which, to be fair, have been flip-flopping, as of this evening have been hinting at slightly cooler air invading tomorrow. It won't exactly be chilly, as it will still get well up into the 80s. 

The main cold front is still likely to come through Wednesday with what at this point look like scattered, unremarkable showers and thunderstorms. 

The cool, dry, sunny weather is still in the forecast, but there's a potential fly in that ointment. 

Several computer models hint that a storm is forecast to form along the southward sinking cold front on Thursday, which might dump some heavy rain in southern New England. Some computer models hint that some of that rain might work its way northward into at least the southern half of Vermont Thursday. 

We'll keep checking updates and update you tomorrow morning.  

Cool Summer Blast Of Air Relieves Us From Heat, New Weather Pattern Could Keep That Going

Storm damage in Swanton Thursday. The cold front that
caused isolated wind damage in Vermont has
introduced radically cooler, drier air into the state,
a welcome change from recent heat, humidity 

 The expected cold front came through last night as expected, and we woke up to refreshing air

The humidity is gone and we can actually go outside again. 

We lucked out with the severe weather, too.  The thunderstorms didn't really get that bad until they reached Quebec and western Maine. There were tornado warnings in Maine, and damage from those storms will be investigated for possible actual tornadoes,

Flash flooding and wind damage was reported in Quebec, too.

There were only a small handful of minor damage reports in Vermont. Perhaps the worst was a collapsed tree I encountered in Swanton that took down some wires and pulled some siding off a house. Elsewhere, a couple other trees and branches fell in Swanton and Alburgh.  Another tree fell in Royalton. That is apparently it.

Before the storms, we did end up making it to 92 degrees in Burlington Thursday, which gives us more hot weather statistics to chew on.

A heat wave in Burlington is considered three days in a row with 90 or above, so we did that. This is the sixth consecutive year with an official heat wave in Burlington. That ties the record with 1944-49 for the most consecutive years with heat waves. 

It's now been 90 degrees ten times in Burlington so far this year.  We're now up to six consecutive year with ten or more 90 degree days. Before this, there had never been more than four consecutive years with that many 90 degree days,  bad in 1946-1949

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE

The "heat dome" strong high pressure that created hot weather in the United States, was in the eastern United States, making it easy to get hot up here in Vermont. 

That heat dome looks like it is slowly migrating to the middle of the United States and showing signs of strengthening. That change indicates large parts of the U.S. are in for brutal and long lasting heat.

But likely not for us in Vermont, though it sort of depends upon  how this thing sets up. Most of the time, when the heat dome is in the middle of the nation, it sets up a northwest flow here in New England. 

Usually, that means some squirts of warm, humid air keep trying to work in and often briefly succeed, But that northwest flow also brings in occasional cold fronts that cut that hot air off at the pass.

In the coming week or two or three, we'll need to see to what extent that northwest flow develops. If some lingering high pressure stays in the East, the cold fronts won't zoom through as much and won't bring lots of refreshing air. 

If the heat dome really centers itself over, say the Great Plains, that means the second half of July here in Vermont could be a fair amount cooler than the first.   

The drawback to all this is the northern periphery of these heat domes often have frequent clusters of strong storms and heavy rain. That seems to be inevitable in the coming week or two in the northern Plains and maybe Great Lakes. I'm sure we'll continue to hear of severe weather and flash flooding in those areas of the nation. 

For us here in New England, the storm prospects over the next couple of weeks are iffy. 

 If the northwest flow is steep, the strong storms and heavy rains will pass us by to the south and west, hitting the southeastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic States. We'd be cut off from access to the really humid air and just get lighter showers and thunderstorms as the cold front goes by.

If the northwest flow is more westerly than north, we could share in these heavy bouts of rain storms. Again, we won't 'know until we're until right before each batch of storms develops. All we can do is forecast the short term, which I've got next.

MUCH COOLER FEW DAYS

The cold front that came through last night had an autumnal feel. It was accompanied and followed by gusty winds, which is uncharacteristic of a July front.

Any lingering winds this morning will quickly diminish for a gorgeous day. We'll enjoy sunshine, much cooler highs in the 70s and very low humidity. Dew points will keep crashing into the 40s, which is rock bottom for July. 

Overnight, actual temperatures across Vermont will drop into the very comfortable 50s.  Cooler hollows will be in the 40s. In cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, the forecast low Saturday morning is 39 degrees.

We'll briefly have some return flow of warmer air Saturday. The humidity will stay low, but highs should get into the low 80s in most places across Vermont.  

But a reinforcing cold front is on its way. A weak storm should pass over or near Vermont later Saturday night. Some light rainfall is quite likely. If Burlington sees at least a trace of rain Saturday night, which is almost certain, we will have had 31 consecutive weekends with precipitation, a new record. 

Temperatures will stay cool-ish Sunday then even chillier air will really flood in. Monday will feel downright autumnal. Highs Monday will only be in the 65 to 72 degree range for most of us. Monday night, temperatures for much of Vermont could reach the 40s. 

This could end up being the strongest July cool spell in a decade. By historical standards, this won't be unusual at all but recent Julys have been unusually warm, thanks in large part to climate change. So it will seem odd. 

Tuesday will be on the cool side, too, but it will warm back up and turn more humid again as the week wears on. It probably won't be as bad as recent days, but it will feel like summer again. 

Beyond the end of next week, who knows?

 

Another Day Of 90 Degree Vermont Heat Wednesday; Possible Severe Weather Today, Then.... Ahhhhhhh!

Best chance of severe storms today is in northern
New England (yellow shaded area). Southern
Quebec might actually see a couple tornadoes, and
there is an extremely low but not zero chance
of a brief spinup in far northern Vermont. 

The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday reached 93 degrees, making it the fifth time this month and the ninth this year so far in which it got into the 90s. 

We're having another summer in which hot weather is overstaying its Vermont welcome.

In this age of climate change, 90 degree weather has definitely gotten more common.

I took a look at records from Burlington regarding hot weather. Out of the past 125 Julys, only 29 of them, including this year, had five or more days with 90 degree temperatures. Eleven of those Julys have happened just since 2010. 

There's a slim chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, but clouds, showers and thunderstorms might prevent that. 

But you never know. Of course, we're only halfway through the month, and I don't know whether it will hit 90 again this month or even this year. 

We've already had nine days with 90 degree heat this year, including the four such days we had in June.   Each of the past eleven years have had eight or more days with 90 degree temperatures in Burlington. 

 On average over the past century, the average number of such days annually is close to six.  And that average has been skewed upward slightly by the large number of hot days over the past decade or so. 

HEAT AND STORMS  

Today, we'll need to continue worrying about oppressive high temperatures and humidity, and we're going to throw the risk of severe storms into the mix. Those storms are for a good cause, though. More on that in a minute.

The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 80 degrees. That would tie the record for highest low temperature for any date. However, it'll get well below 80 degrees by midnight tonight, so the record won't in fact end up being tied.

Still this muggy morning portends an another awful days. Despite clouds and some scattered showers and isolated storms out there this morning, we'll  have no trouble reaching well into the 80s today, with some spot 90 degree readings, especially in southeast Vermont. The humidity will remain sky high all day.

But there is a cold front coming our way.  That will interact with the heat and humidity to produce some thunderstorms this afternoon. As always, they'll tend to be hit and miss, with some towns getting nailed, others getting "meh" type storms and others getting practically nothing at all.

The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms is in central and northern Vermont (and northern parts of New York, New Hampshire and Maine).  NOAA has these areas under a "slight" or level 2 on a five point risk scale of severe thunderstorms. Further south, there might only be an isolated strong to severe storm or two.

Northern areas are a little more under the gun because they're closer to a low pressure system that is support the cold front. That low pressure puts a little spin in the atmosphere. There could even be a few supercells, though those are more likely in southern Quebec. Environment Canada has already issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City today. 

The main threat from these storms are damaging straight line winds. There is a still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in northern or central Vermont.  But again, the chances of any twisters is more likely in southern Quebec.  

There is still a marginal chance of a local instance of flash flooding or two. With all this humidity, the rainfall with these storms will be absolutely torrential. A saving grace is these storms won't be able to stall over one particular spot for very long, which minimizes the chance that inches upon inches of rain would fall. 

I'd stay weather aware, but the chances of you seeing a tornado are exceptionally remote. But if you get a severe thunderstorm warning, definitely take shelter in a sturdy building. Those winds can really cause damage even with no tornado.

BIG RELIEF

When you go to bed this evening, it might still feel awfully humid, with or without the storms. By the time you get up Friday morning, you will notice a HUGE change in the air.

The temperature at dawn will be down in the upper 50s north, 60s south. But the humidity will have crashed. 

The dew point is near 70 today, with is oppressive. By tomorrow morning that dew point will be in the 50s, which is soooo comfortable. The last time we had truly comfortable, dry air in Vermont was July 5, so we were really overdue for this relief. 

 During the day tomorrow, the dew point will stay in the refreshing upper 40s and 50s, with highs only in the 70s. With maybe near 80 in some of the warmer valleys. 

The whole weekend will be on the comfortable side. Saturday looks gorgeous, with highs in the 76 to 83 degrees.  That'll come with sunshine and that low humidity. 

A reinforcing cold front looks like it will come through Saturday night with a few showers. Maybe even a rumble of thunder.

 If it does rain, especially where things are measured in Burlington,  it would make it the 31st weekend in a row with precipitation, which will be a new record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow.

Sunday and Monday look like they will stay refreshingly cool-ish with humidity staying on the low side.  It does look like some very warm air and humidity will return during the middle or end of next week, but I don't know yet how bad it will get or how long it might last.  

Friday Vermont Early Afternoon Update: "Locally Significant Flash Flooding" Possible in Southern Vermont This Afternoon, Evening

Forecasters are now saying "locally significant flash 
flooding" is possible this afternoon and evening
in parts of southern Vermont, along with much 
of New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. 

UPDATE: 2:30 PM FRIDAY

Concern is rising in far southern Vermont for the risk of flash flooding this afternoon and evening.  

By 2:15 p.m, pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms had already developed over the southern Green Mountains.

A large patch of drenching rain, meanwhile, was moving in from the west, beginning to affect most everything south of a Burlington to Newport line,

The part of this drenching patch of rain heading into southern Vermont should intensify as it hits humid, more unstable air there. 

Plus, more torrential thunderstorms should develop, mostly south of Route 4. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, put out a statement warning of the risk of "locally significant flash flooding" in steep and hilly terrain of the southern Green Mountains,

This potential significant flash flooding extends into the Berkshires of Massachusetts and much of southern New Hampshire, especially the Monadnock Mountains. 

In these areas - again including the southern Green Mountains - local areas might see as much as three to five inches of rain of rain in just a few hours. Rainfall rates could briefly reach two inches per hour, which is a big indicator of a flash flood risk, 

The ground is also very wet already in southern Vermont, so it can't absorb all that much water.

Some flash flooding is possible as far north as central Vermont, but it won't be potentially as severe and widespread as in the south. 

Take this one serious, especially if you live in southern Vermont, the southern half of New Hampshire and the western half of Massachusetts. 

There were no flash flood warning in effect yet as of 2:30 p.m., but the worst of the rain hadn't arrived yet. The threat will peak between roughly at between roughly 3 to 8 p.m., but could linger beyond that.

If you live in an area prone to flash flooding, have a to-go bag ready now, and a planned route to escape.  Also, some of you in southern Vermont might be temporarily trapped behind washed out back roads, 

It's honestly too late to run out and get food and stuff in advance of any flooding. You don't want to be caught out on the roads, especially ones near small creeks and streams when the rain really hits. Those streams can go from placid brooks to roaring rapids sometimes within minutes.

Not every town in southern Vermont will see a flash flood. But it's time to be on your toes through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Just in case. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING

Once again, some localized flood risks have popped
up today. In Vermont, southeastern parts of the 
state especially have a chance of local but
to widespread flash flooding. 

Thunderstorms in Vermont were fewer and further between on Thursday than expected, though some of the some of the widely scattered storms eded up being pretty strong. 

We have no reports of any damage so far, so it doesn't look like any of the storms achieved severe status. 

A couple strong storms originated in or near Addison County and crossed over the Green Mountains to areas north White River Junction. I'm sure some of those towns along the way did experience a rambunctious storm. 

90 DEGREES

The relative lack of thunderstorms Thursday also meant more sun, allowing Burlington to achieve its first 90 degree day of the season. 

That was a day later than expected.  Some forecasts called for 90 degrees on Wednesday, but the city didn't quite make it, stopping at 88 degrees.  The mostly sunny skies that lasted until at least mid-afternoon Thursday let Burlington briefly sneak up to 90 degrees in the mid-afternoon. 

The first 90 of the season has been coming earlier in the season recently, compared to, say a generation ago. That's owing at least in part to climate change. The first 90 of the season on Thursday was earlier than historically common. But compared to the last 20 years, it was sort of so-so early.

In the past decade, four of Burlington's first 90 degree day of the season came at a later date than June 5.  In 2015, the first 90 didn't hit until July 28.

The earliest in the season first 90 came on April 17, 2002. Burlington has had a handful of years, like 1998, 2000 and 2004 with no 90 degree days at all. 

TODAY'S STORMS

We're going to have two very different Vermonts today and tonight. Southern Vermont will be stormy and wet. With even a risk of some flooding and severe storms.

Northern areas, not so much, though a little rain should creep in. Right near the Canadian border it might not rain at all, or it does, it won't amount to much.

Which means all eyes are on southern Vermont.  Yesterday's weak cold front stalled and has become a warm front, which will drift ever so slowly into central parts of the state.

South of the warm front, the air is humid and unstable, which suggest lots of showers and thunderstorms. Especially this afternoon.

The principal threat is local flash floods. There's a level one marginal risk of flash flooding in central and southern Vermont, with a somewhat more substantial level 2 slight risk of flash floods in extreme southeast Vermont. (And in western Massachusetts and the southern half of New Hampshire.)

A few spots in southeast Vermont could see two to as much as three inches of rain in a short amount of time this afternoon, which suggests flash flooding is a possibility there.  It won't be widespread, but a few places are at risk.

I'd say the steep terrain of the eastern slopes of the extreme southern Green Mountains, and the lowlands just to the east where the water will flow has the best shot of flash flooding. 

I'd keep an eye on Whetstone Brook in and near Brattleboro today, and nearby streams, just to be on the safe side. No guarantees of flooding there, but if you've got stuff that can be easily moved away from the brook or those surrounding streams, do it this morning, just in case. 

There's no flood watch currently in Vermont, but flood watches are in effect immediately adjacent to the Green Mountain State in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

Another secondary problem in far southern Vermont is severe storms. A few could contain strong damaging winds, maybe a couple of microbursts. Nothing at all like Austin, Texas had on May 28, but a couple towns in far southern parts of the state could suffer some localized tree and power line damage. 

A level one marginal risk of severe storms, meaning isolated damaging winds at most, is in effect for areas along and south Route 4. As of early this morning, level 2 slight risk is up for central New England, just barely creeping into southeastern Vermont around Brattleboro and Guilford.  

SATURDAY

Believe it or not, Saturday is looking....OK. At least in the afternoon and evening. I'm not holding my breath, given our recently history, but at least some of us might enjoy some sun as the afternoon wears on and evening approaches.

At least it won't be a complete washout like last Saturday was. 

Southern Vermont will still have the worst weather in the state, just as they will today. It'll be a rainy morning, as Saturdays in Vermont now seem to be required to have rain. But skies should brighten by mid to late afternoon. Except maybe in far southeast Vermont, where it could remain cloudy all day. 

The further north you go, the less rain and the less chance of rain you'll see.  In fact, it's possible parts of Vermont close to the Canadian border might break the sacred Saturday "rule" and see no rain at all!

Bottom line. If you have outdoor plans Saturday in Vermont, the later in the day they start, they better off you'll be,

The only fly in the ointment later in the afternoon is a secondary cold front will come through. That could touch off a few isolated showers and storms, but nothing widespread at all.

SUNDAY

Another miracle might hit Sunday.  At least some of us in Vermont should end up with a Chamber of Commerce kind of day. You know, perfect for the tourists. After a comfortable night for sleeping overnight Saturday, Sunday's highs should reach the mid 70s, at least in the valleys. The humidity should stay nice and low. 

 Places away from the mountains should have mostly sunny skies, with just some puffy clouds around over the mountains, to make the photos and background for your selfies that much prettier. 

There will probably be still some Canadian wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, so the sky might not be a brilliant deep blue on Sunday. The blue might have that bit of a slate gray tint to it because of that smoke. I guess not everything can be perfect. Still, the smoke shouldn't be as thick as it was earlier this week, and I don't anticipate anything serious enough to prompt air quality alerts. 

If you're in the mountains, the skies could get a little cluttered with those puffy clouds in the afternoon, so the sun won't be consistent there. But it will still be nice. No rain!

 

Hot As The Fourth Of July Indeed As 90 Degree Days Pile Up In Vermont

Lillies blooming in the hot sun of 
Fourth of July, 2024 in St. Albans, 
Vermont. Temperatures made it
to 90 degrees in parts of the state
and we might have more such
days in the coming week. 

 It was a bit of surprise, but at least in Burlington, Vermont, we made it to 90 degrees on the Fourth of July. 

We knew it was going to be warm and humid Thursday, but it did get a little hotter than expected. We had a bit more sun than I had anticipated, which helped boost temperatures.

I guess the weather gods wanted to keep with tradition. You know, "Hot as the Fourth of July" and all that jazz. 

It's turning out to be a very warm summer, as expected, at least so far. I wonder if the  Fourth of July heat could be a sign that this summer might make it into the top ten warmest.

Burlington actually has 14 summers in their list of top ten warmest, since there are several ties on the list. In five of those summers, it was 90 degrees on the Fourth of July. 

That might not seem like much, but the chances of a 90 degree day falling on a specific day in Vermont, no matter how hot the summer, is pretty iffy.

The 90 degrees on July 4 this year is the sixth time it got to that level this year. We're on a - pardon the pun - blistering pace.  

Even if we don't have another 90 degree day for the rest of the summer, only 48 out of the past 123 entire years in Burlington have had at least six days that got that hot. 

Of course, the Champlain Valley is Vermont's banana belt. Most of the rest of the state has fewer 90s than places like Burlington. 

We'll have more chances at hitting 90 degrees, at least in the Champlain Valley in the coming days and probably weeks. 

The United States right now is dominated by two heat domes - one along the West Coast, the other on the East Coast.  In between, a little bit of a dip in the jet stream is keeping the northern and central parts of the Great Plains and Midwest relatively reasonable

As a reminder, a heat dome is a big area of summertime high pressure that features lots of sinking air. That sinking air causes compressional warming, which makes hot air even hotter.

By far, the strongest of the two heat domes is in the West. That heat dome is intense, long lasting, and will likely lead to some all time high temperatures in areas from the central Rockies to the Pacific Coast. 

Climate change is making this type of scary heat dome more likely. 

Luckily for us in Vermont, the heat dome in the East is pretty much a typical Bermuda High. There might be a few record highs, but not all that many, really. 

Plus, Vermont is on the northern edge of this big eastern heat zone. That means we're subject to weak disturbances that tend to temper the heat. 

Still, it's going to be uncomfortable out there, with more chances at 90 degree heat. Today could be another 90 degree afternoon. Especially since it was already 87 degrees in Burlington as of 1 p.m.  

On Saturday, if expected showers and storms hold off long enough, we could make another run at 90 degrees. Monday and Tuesday of next week could also get that warm. Maybe. 

Whether or not it actually gets to 90 degrees on any day now through the start of next week, you'll want to take it easy. Humidity will stay  high, so you'll not want to overexert yourself outdoors. And, like we did in June, keep an eye on your elderly neighbors, especially if they don't have air conditioning.

Maybe kidnap them again and take them to a movie. "Despicable Me 4" with all those yellow pill-like Minions might be good for a few laughs. 

There are some uncertain signs that dip in the jet stream over the Midwest might edge a little further east briefly in about a week, giving us a break from the warmth and humidity. 

That said, the overall weather pattern features a much better than even chance of warmer than average temperatures at least into the third week of July.  

First 90 Degree Temperature Of The Season In Burlington, But No More For Awhile

Boaters try to cool off on Lake Champlain last September
4 during a three-day stretch of 90 degree weather. We
had our first 90 of the season Wednesday, and recent
years have featured a larger than usual number of such days.

 The temperature did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont for the first time this year. But don't count on it happening again for while.  

The last time it was 90 degrees before Wednesday wasn't all that long ago if you think about it. That happened on September 6, 2023,

A general cooling trend is coming over the next week, starting today.  We're off to a warm, humid start today, but  cold front will take care of that. 

We still expect a few showers and thunderstorms until this comes through, mainly this morning and early afternoon, perhaps lasting into mid-afternoon southeast.

It still looks like the front will come through too soon in the day to allow for any severe weather, aside from some lightning and quick hit or miss downpours. Eastern and southern New England might see a few severe storms as the front will make to the coast later today.

It'll remain on the warm side Friday through Sunday with daytime highs well into the 70s to a few spot 80 degree readings.  That's toasty for this time of year, but not ridiculous.

After that, starting mostly Monday night, we enter a long showery and cool period. Frankly, some of us could use more rain so that's not a bad thing. And the lack of oppressive summer heat next week will be a bit of relief, too

90 DEGREE CLIMATOLOGY

The first 90 degrees in Burlington was earlier than usual, but didn't break any records.  The average date of the first 90 is June 19th, says the National Weather Service in Burlington. 

The earliest 90 was incredibly early - April 17, 2002.

At least as measured in Burlington, we get on average about six days per year with highs of 90 degrees or more.  It varies a lot year to year, though. I've looked at records so far dating a century and found nine years with absolutely no 90 degree days. The last time that happened was in 2004.

The most 90s in a single year was in 1949 when we had 26 such days. 

I have noticed what seems to be an uptick of 90 degree days in recent years. Probably caused by a mix of mostly climate change and perhaps a little influence from an urban heat island effect as development has increased in and near Burlington. 

Each of the past nine years ending in 2023 had at least eight days reaching 90 degrees. There's not nearly that long of such a streak anywhere in previous record. Only one year since 2010 has had a below normal number of 90 degree days. (That was in 2014, when it only got that hot twice). 

Temperatures in the 90s during May does not necessarily translate into a hot summer, but it can. 

Twenty of the past 100 Mays, including this year, have gotten to 90.  Thirteen years in the past century that had 90 degree weather in May ended up having an above normal number of such days, while seven had near to below the normal allotment.  

Long range forecasts do call for a hot summer in New England, but those prognostications can be unreliable.  We'll just have to wait and see if we'll need to crank the air conditioning once again this summer. Or, if you're sick of the heat, we might hope for the first "cool" summer in a decade. 

Cool Summer A Thing Of The Past, At Least For Awhile

An intense snow squall blasts into St. Albans, Vermont
in February, 2022. No snow squalls in today's forecast!

UPDATE: 2:50 p.m. 

Burlington indeed made it into the 90s this afternoon before some clouds and some showers not far away from the city brought temperatures back down to 88 degrees.

So that's the fifth day in a row and six out of seven days this week with 90 degree temperatures. It might still bounce back up to 90 degrees again as skies perhaps clear out more later this afternoon.

We're still on track for a sultry night, another oppressive day Sunday.  There will only be isolated showers and storms for the rest of the day today, but we'll see a rising chance of storms Sunday afternoon and evening. 

In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the chances of severe storms for Vermont tomorrow from marginal to slight, (level 1 up to level 2 in risk category).  They've also added another tornado risk, albeit a low risk. If that forecast results in a tornado warning, that would be the third day within a week in which either a tornado touched down in Vermont or a tornado warning was issued. Quite a hot, active week! 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Boy, the character of this summer's weather changed fast didn't? 

While the world was sweltering around us, we enjoyed a sunny, breezy, comfortable summer here in Vermont until mid-July. 

Then someone turned on the furnace. 

Today, Burlington, Vermont's high temperature will almost surely go above 90 degrees. Which will mean only one day this week (Monday) failed to make it to 90 degrees.

More heat is definitely on the way. 

I illustrated this post with winter photos, and you can enjoy some winter videos at the bottom of this post. Think of them as sort of a visual Popsicle on a hot day. 

Back in early July, it was beginning to  look like we could have a summer that had fewer than average 90 degree days, but that's no longer the case. Through Friday, we had seven such days in Burlington this year, against an average of six or so for most years.

Or at least that was the average. Recent summers have piled on the 90 degree days, so by some estimates, we should now expect at least ten days a year that reach that magical scorcher 90 degrees.  

It reached 90 degrees 14 times last summer. The year before that was even worse, with 20 such days. 

The record for the most 90 degree days in a single year still stands at 26, in 1949.  It looks like that record is safe this year, unless we have an absolutely insane August and early September. 

Ice covered berries after some freezing rain in St 
Albans, Vermont, January, 2019. 

Though we have some relief coming next week, we still have some torrid conditions to go.  Although Friday was  hot, it was less humid than in some previous days, so it felt a little better.

The humidity will begin to creep up today amid the heat.  The extra bit of humidity could be enough to trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two, probably over the mountains. Then things get interesting.

HOT AND STORMY

We'll slog through another terribly humid and hot Sunday.  Some of us will hit 90 degrees again, depending upon when clouds arrive.

A storm system is set to cause a lot of severe weather in the Midwest today, and that will be approaching us on Sunday.  Some of the initial storms that form Sunday afternoon could be strong to severe, given how humid and unstable the air is.

Snow falls from pine trees in West Rutland, Vermont
after a storm in December, 2017.

Even though it's been dry, we'll have to watch out for possible areas of flash flooding Sunday night. Several rounds of torrential thunderstorm should rumble through.

 Some areas could have too much rain too fast, resulting in overburdened small streams, washouts, that kind of thing. It's not clear yet how extensive this might be and precisely who, if anyone, sees a flash flood.

But it's something to keep an eye on. Especially since any flooding that does develop would start at night, when people are either sleeping and don't get warnings, or are out driving and can't see the deep water ahead of them.

In any event, Sunday night looks pretty sleepless, with the humidity, the downpours, the rumbles of thunder. Kinda yucky.  

The humidity doesn't quite clear out Monday, so it'll be another uncomfortable day, with maybe a lingering risk of storms.

Then, starting Tuesday, things get better. Next week will still generally be a little warmer than average, but not nearly as hot as this week nor as humid. 

Long range forecasts into early August continue to call for warmer than average temperatures, so we'll see how that works out. 

Videos:

An intense snow squall rushes into St. Albans, Vermont, February 27, 2022. Click on this link to view if you don't see image below, otherwise, click on image.

Next, sort of a highlight reel of the Pi Day Blizzard in St. Albans, Vermont, March 14, 2017. Click on this link to view, or click on image below if you see it. 

Next, the dogs check out the snow, and we also slow things down to make a snow globe effect. Click on this link to view or click on image below if you see it. 

Heat Builds In Midwest, Heading This Way

Warming temperatures this week have made the progress
of spring go into overdrive. These were buds on
a sugar maple behind my house in St. Albans, Vermont
on Sunday morning..........

 After a spate of record highs in the southern Plains Sunday and Monday, things cooled off a bit Tuesday.  

But a new surge of record warmth will engulf the Midwest today and especially tomorrow. The possibly record warmth is still due to flood into Vermont over the next few days.

Temperatures at or above 90 degrees are forecast by Thursday as far north as Minneapolis and Sioux Falls, South Dakota. There could be some mid-90s in the southeastern corner of South Dakota by tomorrow.

The warmth has started to gradually build in Vermont.  Some warmer spots, like the Champlain Valley away from the lake could see their first 80 degree reading of the season this afternoon. 

Record highs in Burlington Thursday through Saturday are in the mid-80s, and those record will be challenged all three days. The most likely day to see record heat is on Friday.

I've been speculating about whether or not we'll reach 90 degrees in Burlington during this spell. I'm still listing it as unlikely but possible. The air has been very dry, and if humidity levels don't creep up much by Friday, that could set the stage for a 90 degree temperature.

The air can heat up faster in strong spring sunshine when the air is dry.  Humid air feels more oppressive, but it's harder for temperatures to shoot up when the air is wet.  The fact that it hasn't rained lately is also a factor in favor of a possible temperature over-performance around here. 

The sun's energy won't go as much into evaporation with drier ground, so more energy could into heating the air.  

.........and these are the very same branches on the above
sugar maple just three days, last, photo taken this morning

Another factor might be wildfire smoke. Unseasonably early season fires out west have pumped smoke into the air, and depending on winds, a little bit of that might be high overhead Friday. If the smoke dims the sun slightly, that could help prevent a 90 degree reading. 

In any event, it would be awfully early for a 90 degree temperature, as its happened in April and May only  a handful of times before. So odds are against a 90.  We'll find out in a few days, won't we?

The weather pattern, the rex block I've talked about, depends on strong high pressure to the north and strong low pressure directly to its south.

The strong low pressure earlier this week brought 70 mph gusts to Delaware, coastal flooding and the destruction of at least two houses on Cape Hatteras.  Now the storm is weakening. The balance of power between the high pressure over us and the low pressure to the south is being destroyed.

That will unblock things so that storms and cold fronts will start moving again. 

The heat in the Midwest will be routed by a cold front by Friday or Saturday. That cold front will eventually reach Vermont Sunday night or Monday, ending our expected heat. The cold front should produce some welcome rain in Vermont, but so far I'm not overly impressed by how much rain is in the forecast. 

We'll know more about how much rain we'll get once we get closer to Sunday.