The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.  

Storm To Cause Problems Across U.S. Through The Weekend; Vermont In For A Lot Of....Something

Vermont Agency of Transportation posted
this photo to Facebook Thursday 
showing a backhoe shoving large
snowbanks away from Route 105 in
Jay around Richford Mountain to
make room for more plowed snow
in upcoming storms. 

 Our weird storm from earlier today is mostly done, as the snow we did get settled and got soggy in many places as temperatures went above freezing. 

Nice snowball and snowman making snow for a change, briefly. I saw a couple reports of five inches of snow near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom, which is the most I've seen so far today. 

A few light rain showers in the valleys will change to scattered snow showers this evening without amounting to much. Water on roads and driveways should freeze up this evening, though so take care. 

IT's going to get windy tonight, too, so expect some many areas to see gusts over 40 mph.  The Vermont counties near the Canadian border and in far southern Vermont are under wind advisories, with possible gusts to 55 tonight. 

There might be a power outage or two with that kind of wind, though I'm guessing nothing too widespread. 

After a blustery, cold Friday, we gear up for the long awaiting larger weekend storm. 

First, the big picture

NATIONWIDE DANGER

Our storm is starting to cause its trouble today in California. 

California Flood/Debris

Flooding is possible today anywhere near the entire California coast and in the lower foothills of the Sierra Nevada, below the level where heavy snow is falling.

Southern California is the real trouble zone, thanks to the recent giant wildfires there. Rainfall rates are forecast to be between a half inch to an inch an hour at times, with rainfall totals in the three to six inch range. 

This would be enough to set off some mudslides and flash flooding without the prior wildfires. Now, with the huge burn areas devoid of vegetation and the soil cooked in such a way by the fires that water can't soak in well, the runoff is sure to create large debris flows.  The worry is it will destroy or damage homes that somehow escaped the fire. 

Fire officials have evacuated homes and businesses near the sites of the fires as a precaution. 

Eastern Flood

Once this storm is done with California, its destructive flooding won't end. Forecasters are worried about potentially serious flooding from Louisiana and other areas of the Southeast on up through the Tennessee Valley, West Virginia and southern Ohio,

This area has had a lot of precipitation from the parade of storms that have blown through this region all month.  Rivers are running high, soils and saturated. Now, three to six inches of rain is forecast Saturday in this region, 

There's already a level three "moderate" alert on a four point scale for flooding in this region. It's rare to issue that high a risk a couple days in advance.  NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is considering raising this to a rare "high risk" alert level for flooding. 

High risk is reserved for only the most dangerous flash flood scenarios. (They put Vermont under a high risk alert for the catastrophic flooding on July 10, 2023, for instance).

This could be a deadly and highly destructive flood, and it could hit some of the areas trashed by the extreme floods of Hurricane Helene back in September. 

Severe weather/tornadoes

Forecasters are also worried about a pretty widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes near the Gulf Coast and Southeast Saturday with this new storm. There were already a handful of tornadoes with the most recent storm yesterday, and this one could prove more widespread. We'll need to watch for updates because of things come together correctly, they could end up with strong, long lasting tornadoes

And of course, along and to the north of this strong storm, freezing rain, sleet and snow will fall in torrents in a wide area stretching from Great Lakes to southeast Canada. Current forecasts call for wide areas of ice in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

Which leads us, finally, to what the hell is going to happen here in Vermont with this storm. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Disappointingly, we don't know exactly how this will play out. Once again, it's going to be one of those marginal situations between snow, ice and rain

This will be different from all the quick hitters we've had this month. The weekend storm should stick around for awhile. As of this afternoon, it looks like something will be coming out of the sky in Vermont from Saturday evening at least until early Monday morning. 

One depiction of where this weekend's expected
strong storm might be Sunday morning. Exactly
where it goes, and how much warm air
intrusion aloft comes with it will determine
if Vermont gets a lot of snow, or a nasty
mix of frozen stuff. 

The storm itself will also be much stronger than the ones that have blown through here lately. 

At some points in this storm, we're going to have to deal with strong winds in some places. Best guess is early on in the storm, maybe Saturday nigh and early Sunday, strong downslope winds might hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Behind the storm, we could be dealing with strong, cold northwest winds. 

Like the storm we had Thursday, the temperature profile in different layers of the atmosphere over Vermont will be complicated. 

 We're going to see revisions right up through the storm as to how much snow, how much sleet and freezing rain, and even how much regular rain different parts of Vermont might see.

The early read on this is the main storm will head in from Ohio, across northwest Pennsylvania and into New York and maybe Vermont. A second storm will also start to develop along the New England coast.

How these two systems interact, and how far west the original storm goes, will dictate how much snow we get, versus how much sleet, freezing rain and rain.

There's a still a chance this could remain all or mostly snow, especially in the far north, but we just don't know yet. The best chances of an ugly mix are in southern Vermont.  For the record, the National Weather Service for now is going with mostly or exclusively snow north, and a mix south. 

It does look like it will start as snow for all of us Saturday, with the snow getting heavier later at night. Then we might get the mix, depending on temperatures. The tail end of the storm later Sunday or Sunday night looks like it could provide a decent burst of heavy snow. Maybe. 

I'm not even going to guess on how much snow and/or ice we're going to see out of this.  For now, I'd consider putting travel plans on hold this weekend. Especially on Sunday, when the worst of it looks like it wants to come through. 

This could be the strongest winter storm we've had all season, but what form it will take is ridiculously tricky. 

Hype Machine Says Vermont Snowstorm Sunday; Reality Could Still Be Very Different

Just one of many depictions of a possible storm in the
Northeast Sunday. Despite appearances on this map.
it's way too soon to know whether it will come
far enough north to give Vermont any appreciable snow.

 You might have already heard the hype that we're supposedly finally getting a decent Vermont snowstorm this coming Sunday.  

The short answer is: It's possible, but don't bet on it. 

We do know that some sort of storm will affect some part of the eastern United States this weekend and somebody will probably get some snow out of it. 

But who, what and where is still an open question. 

The weather disturbance destined to help create this storm was still off the California coast this morning. 

When any weather system is off a coast, there's not much data available on it. The sparse data goes into the computer models. Since that data is so iffy, the computer models can be way, way off. 

Once this system moves inland later today and tomorrow, we'll have better data to feed into the computer models. Even with the new, better data, the computer models will still be off, but not as badly as they probably are now. 

As always. adjustments will keep coming right up until the time the storm strikes. Or doesn't strike. 

Right now, the big question for us in Vermont is how far north the storm comes, and thus, how much snow will be available.. Unlike recent storms, at this point, it does look like enough cold air would be available for snow, since a sort of chilly high pressure system in Quebec would feed subfreezing air into northern New England. 

Meteorologists use a location off the New England coast known as the 40/70 benchmark to get a rough idea of whether snow will hit from a passing nor'easter.  It's a good guide to determine whether snow will fall in Vermont, and whether the snow will turn to rain along the coast. 

The benchmark is 40 degrees latitude and 70 degrees west longitude, which is a point in the Atlantic Ocean about 80 miles south of Nantucket. 

If a storm tracks north and west of that 40/70 benchmark, chances are higher that Vermont gets a decent snow. If it's over or to the south and east of that point, not so much. 

With this forecasted Sunday storm, we still have no idea whether this thing will pass to the northwest or southeast of this benchmark. Which means we have no idea whether Vermont gets a snowstorm or not. 

The high pressure in Quebec could squash the storm southward, or the lack of any big weather systems in the Atlantic could allow the storm to scoot out to sea well to our south. 

On the other hand. If the storm is deeper than forecast, or if a weak storm near the Great Lakes is able to tug the main storm westward, then we get a decent snow.  The computer models can't yet tell us how this will play out. 

Bottom line: Wait until at least Thursday to make your Vermont weather and snow plans for this weekend.  

Evening Nor'easter Update: Vermont Snow STILL Uncertain; Having A Snow Blast South

Just one of many snow prediction maps floating around
out there. Talk about a wide range in Vermont. This 
particular map forecasts 0.2 inches of new snow around 
Alburgh, in the northwest tip of the state, to about
16 inches in the mountains just east of Bennington.
High bust potential on these forecasts.

Figured I'd do a quick evening  update regarding the nor'easter and how it will affect us here in Vermont.   

Most people seem to be going with a persistence forecast since this morning. Meaning they're still calling for heavy snow south, and next to nothing north. 

There remains several wrinkles in this forecast, so I'm all but guaranteeing some busted forecasts.

It looks like there will be a sharp cutoff between a LOT of snow somewhere south and pretty much nothing north.  It's just impossible to place where all this will happen. 

A band of very heavy snow in Pennsylvania late this afternoon will pivot into the Hudson Valley of New York and southern and central New England. Under this band, there could be up to 20 inches of snow from this, most of it coming down in 12 hours or less.

Will this band of super heavy snow make it into far southern Vermont? If so, how far into Vermont.  If it does make it, somebody is going to get nailed.  Here's an example of the challenge:  One set of data suggests Springfield, Vermont will receive somewhere between two and 26 inches of snow overnight and tomorrow morning. Not exactly narrowed down, huh?

In our neck of the woods, this storm reminds me of a storm on Christmas Day, 2002. A narrow band of snow like the one forecast for tonight set up over Rutland County.  I was there that day, and about 18 inches of snow piled up in just five hours. Go north to Middlebury, and only two or three inches of snow fell there. 

For now, the we stick to persistence.  The National Weather Service is still going for six to 12 inches in the southern four counties of Vermont, with locally higher amounts near the Massachusetts border.

Some forecasting models have absolutely no snow at the Canadian border, others give that area a dusting. 

As mentioned yesterday, snow trying to work north will encounter dry air and will tend to evaporate as it starts falling from the clouds. 

That will yield to some weird images if you look at weather radar overnight. Radar is already falsely showing snow falling in the southern half of Vermont. Later, radar will show snow falling statewide. But most of that will actually be snow falling from clouds, but evaporating well before reaching the ground .