The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.