A Damp, Dreary Saturday Morning Leads To A Showery Vermont Afternoon. Wet Week Ahead?

Screen grab from the WCAX web cam high up on
Mount Mansfield showed new snow on the trees
this morning. Yes, it's a chilly Vermont May morning. 

We're starting the day with light rain across much of Vermont. Especially northwest Vermont judging from the radar at 8 a.m. today. 

It's not amounting to much, with almost everyone receiving a tenth of an inch of rain or less. Some places so far might have gotten nothing. 

It's chilly out there, too.  As of 8 a.m., temperatures in most valleys were hovering near 40 degrees. 

That means snow was falling in the high elevations, so when or if it clears up a little later today,  you'll maybe see a snow capped Mount Mansfield, Camels Hump or Jay Peak. The WCAX web cam from high up on Mount Mansfield revealed new snow on the trees this morning. 

At slightly lower elevations, if you looked very closely this morning at the traffic camera on Route 242 in Westfield near Jay Peak, you could see snowflakes in the air, though it wasn't sticking.

But that traffic camera on Route 242 shows patches of snow in the woods from this past winter. Spring definitely doesn't arrive at the same time in different areas of Vermont.

For virtually everyone in Vermont, though, this Saturday morning is definitely not springlike. It'll slowly get better, though, as we go through the next few days. But you'll still be dodging raindrops for much of the next week or so. 

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us that those of us who are getting a somewhat steadier, light rain should see that disappear by late morning. But we're not done. It's never that easy. 

The air high overhead is frigid.  Which means, counterintuitively, that the sun this afternoon will help manufacture more clouds and showers. The sun will heat the ground, leading to updrafts. Since the air is so cold way up above us, the clouds will tower up enough to produce showers. 

They'll be hit and miss. Some of us will get wet this afternoon, some of us won't. It will be the luck of the draw. In a few cases the NWS says a few showers could be very briefly on the heavy side. And I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest of the showers contain harmless hailstorms sized smaller than peas   or graupel. 

Graupel is like frozen bits of snow that look like soft, white, tiny hailstones or bits of packing material. 

You've probably guessed by now that today won't be particularly warm. You guessed correctly. Highs today should get maybe into the low 50s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than average. Some areas north and in the high elevations might not get out of the 40s today. 

Temperatures won't have far to fall to get near the freezing point tonight, so there will be patchy frost. If you've put out sensitive plants, you're too early. Bring 'em in today. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the better of the two days. We still have a risk of a shower, but any showers will be very light and much less common than what we'll see today.  Most of us will stay dry. Sometimes the sun will be out, sometimes not. So it will be a difficult day to dress for. 

When the sun is out and you're between wind gusts, it'll feel nice. When the clouds are overhead and the wind blows a little, you'll shiver. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, though, so definitely bring the fleece if you're headed outdoors.  

NEXT WEEK

It looks like it might turn out to be quite a wet stretch, if a weather front stalls nearby as many of the computer models expect.

The nicer days of the week should be Monday and Tuesday. Both days will feature warmer air, and showers should be relatively few and far between. Highs should be in the low 60s Monday, so pretty close to average. 

On Tuesday, a cold front will be approaching. If the clouds and showers hold off until the end of the day, we could see highs well into the 70s. If it clouds up earlier, it would mean 60s to around 70.

What happens Wednesday into Friday depends on which computer model you believe. Some of the models have the front stalling somewhere over the region, and pulling in lots of moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. 

If that happens, we could potentially see as much as one to three inches of rain  over those three days. 

Other models move things along a little faster, which would mean less rain for us. 

Almost all the weather models have us cooling down later in the week.  Certainly cooler than normal for May. That fits with the May predictions we saw even a couple weeks ago. Those forecasts said we'd have a cool first half of May, with maybe one or two warm days thrown in. 

Looks like that's coming true. 

Snowy April Day Underway In Vermont, Should Clear Out Late, Spring Still Coming

Traffic camera shows a snowy Route 9 in Searsburg, Vermont
around 7:30 this morning. An initial burst of snow hit
far southern Vermont. Much of the rest of the state
could see briefly heavy snow showers today. 

 If it hasn't snowed where you are yet as you read this in and around Vermont, it will soon. 

A small disturbance is blowing through, consisting oa a reinforcing shot of cold air that'll keep us quite chilly through tomorrow morning. 

A burst of pretty heavy snow has already crossed Bennington and Windham counties in southern Vermont, depositing a quick inch of snow. 

It left roads looking pretty slippery around Bennington and along Route 9 heading up and over the far southern Green Mountains. 

Scattered snow showers were across parts of central Vermont as of 8 a.m. Another main band of snow appeared to be twisting around the mini-storm's center not far from Watertown, New York. It was gradually heading east.

I'm not sure whether that band will hold together completely, but almost all of the state has a shot of a quick inch of snow, if it hasn't already happened. There's a slight question as to whether the snow band will be able to pivot into the far northern Champlain Valley, but for now, we should assume it will. 

In any event, the snow could briefly come down pretty hard anywhere in the state. That means that we'll have to harken back to our winter driving habits a bit as the roads will get briefly slick. Since this is happening in April during the day, some of the snow will tend to start melting off shortly after any bursts of heavier snow ends. 

Hopefully that means any problems with icy roads won't last long. This isn't a full blown winter storm, after all. Just a nippy springtime hassle. 

Yep, another snowfall forecast map. Perhaps the last one
of the season? Don't count on it. This map shows many
of us could get a quick inch of snow. There might
be locally heavier surprises in the mountains

Some places might have more than one burst of heavy snow.  Certain spots in the state could technically get up to two or three inches of snow. 

But it would be an inch that melts, followed by another inch that melts again. So nobody except the high elevations should have much  more than an inch of snow on the ground out of this. 

That said, small mini-storms like this in April can work with amazingly lame amounts of atmospheric moisture and create a good local dump of snow, so keep an eye on it through the day.

 A few isolated spots - mostly up high -  could end up with several inches of surprise snow. No guarantees, but just a possibility there. 

Our little disturbance should start to head on out late this afternoon, taking its snow showers with it. 

FRIGID TONIGHT

We're setting ourselves up for potentially the coldest April night since 2016.  What is likely, hopefully, the last Arctic high pressure system of the season should settle right over the top of overnight and early tomorrow. That means light winds and clear skies - the perfect recipe for a frigid night. 

Or almost perfect. If there's snow cover, it tends to get even colder in these situations. Many of us will still have some snow on the ground overnight, so that could make things even chillier.  The bottom line: Most of us will be in the frigid teens by the time dawn breaks tomorrow. A few of us could be in the single digits. 

That's damn cold for April. Maybe even close to record territory in a few places. Burlington's record low of 11 tomorrow is completely safe.  But it could get close in St. Johnsbury, where the record low is 10 above on Wednesday. The most likely candidate is Montpelier. Their record low tomorrow is 14 degrees, and the forecast low is also 14 degrees.

SPRING RETURNS

Don't worry, we still are convinced spring will come back in a hurry. And stay for awhile this time. Tomorrow afternoon will still be cool for this time of year, but 40s won't seem bad after today. 

Thursday and Friday will pop right up into the nice 50s to low 60s before another cold front comes in. But the next cold front is a spring front, not an Arctic one. So Saturday will probably only be about 50 degree, which is still reasonable.

On top of that, a stiff southwest wind could bring us up to near 70 degrees next Monday if thick clouds and rain hold off until the end of the day. Stay tuned on that one! 

Monday Morning: Back To "Winter Echo" In Vermont For A Couple Days

This garden, as of a this morning covered with a dusting of
snow and a mess of dead leaves and disheveled ground,
will someday be pretty again. Sooner rather than
later, we hope!

 Just for a reminder I live in Vermont, I woke up to a dusting of snow on the ground and some snowflakes in the air outside her in St. Albans, Vermont. 

That's not the least bit odd for early April, I know. But, everyone is anxious to see our world finally start to green up after a long, brown, gray, colorless winter.

Don't worry, the big green-up is coming and soon, but we'll have to deal with the usual "winter echo" we get every spring, in which winter weather continues to reverberate after the main show is done.

This year's episode of "winter echo' is pretty mellow compared to some years, so we have that to be thankful for, too.

COLD SPELL

This semi-return to winter really kind of started yesterday. It never really was able to partly clear up and warm up much across the Green Mountain State yesterday. It stayed rather chilly and raw all day even as rain tapered off as expected in the afternoon. 

Colder air coming in last night left us that lovely dusting of snow. At least in some parts of Vermont. It looks like the mountains picked up and inch or two of snow. Vermont Agency of Transportation web games showed is snowing pretty hard again around Jay Peak as of around 8 a.m. this morning. 

This morning's snow showers might tend to dry up during the day today, though they might not entirely die out. I imagine they might especially hang on like a bad party guest in the northern and central Green Mountains off and on all day. 

Highs today will only make it to around 40, give or take, which is about ten degrees chillier than average for this time of year. 

But then it gets worse.

TUESDAY

A reinforcing shot of frigid Canadian air is about to give us a January in April day tomorrow. Highs across most of northern Vermont won't get above freezing, and warmer southern valleys should mostly stay at or below 40 degrees.  

For comparison, valleys north should be around 50 degrees during the afternoons this time of year, while southern valleys should be in the low 50s.

This reinforcing shot of cold air will also bring through a disturbance during the day that should kick off quite a few snow showers. That it's coming through during the day means snow accumulations should be limited. Maybe an inch or less in the valleys and a couple inches in the mountains. 

It might be one of those days in which  you actually get a couple inches of snow, but never actually see that much on the ground. With the strong sun angle of April, you might get a half inch of snow in a burst, then it melts, to be followed by another half inch that melts, etc, 

The orientation is a little in question, so it's hard to tell who gets the most snow. It doesn't really matter that much, because it won't be a lot. Especially first thing tomorrow morning, that snow might be creating slick spots on the roads, though, so keep that in mind.  

The April cold will be a little more intense than we've seen in recent years. The National Weather Service is going for a high tomorrow of 32 in Burlington and a Wednesday morning low of 19. 

If that happens, it'll be the first time since 2016 that a day didn't;t get above freezing in April. It would also be the first time since 2016, and the second time in 20 years that it gets into the teens. It'll be a close call.

Before climate change kicked in, we would much more often see subfreezing highs in April and lows in the teens and even single numbers during the month. The world is warmer now, so we're not used to cold snaps that were once routine, but are now kind of exceptional. 

THE WARMUP

We're not going to flip to anything record warm or anything like that, but you'll find the second half of the week, next weekend and beyond much more palatable. Wednesday afternoon should still be cool after that frigid start, but the warm April sun will make it feel OK. 

It's hard to get a feel for exactly how warm it might get starting Thursday, but 50s and low 60s for daily highs looks reasonable at this point. That's somewhat milder than average, and we'll take it. Since the warm up looks like it will last at least several days, you'll start to see lawns green up a little, garden perennials sprout, and tree buds swell.

It's a promise. Despite "winter's echo," spring is inevitable. 

Friday Morning Vermont Update: We're Still Getting Our Warm Spell, But Now There's Complications, Of Course!

The snow surrounding the shoveled paths to my shed
should disappear over the next few days. But will
it all come back later next week? Unfortunately,
that's possible. It's March in Vermont after all. 

Especially in March, forecasts of balmy weather in Vermont are often too good to be true. 

We're starting to see it with our upcoming warm spell. We'll still have some nice, mild days coming up. 

But trends are shortening the length of this spell of balmy weather.  And if these trends continue, some of us could end up right back where we started. 

Deep snow cover in the valleys will melt over the next few days, possibly only to be replaced at the end by a wet snowstorm. 

That's a worst-case scenario at this point, but preliminary forecasts for this coming Wednesday are changing. More on that in a bit, because we're getting ahead of ourselves.

COLD AIR DRAINAGE

Speaking of getting cheated out of warmth, that's what happened in parts of Vermont yesterday. We had a strange temperature set up. 

A few days ago, the forecasts for Thursday had highs in the low to mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Instead, it was only in the mid and upper 20s for the most part. 

That cold, dense, shallow layer of cold air hugging the ground from an Arctic air mass in Canada had no trouble draining down the Richelieu river valley into Vermont's Champlain Valley,

At around 4 p.m., it was 24 degrees in Highgate, 27 in Burlington and Montreal was at 19 degrees. All those stations had north winds of 15 to 25 mph. But the cold, dense air was shallow. It was still above freezing atop Mount Mansfield. And the cold air at least initially couldn't get past the Green Mountains. 

While it was so cold in the Champlain Valley, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, White River Junction and Springfield were all at either 46 or 47 degrees. It was just strange.

As forecast, rain, sleet, freezing rain and rain hit southern Vermont, but did not penetrate the cold air north. The worst of the weather was down in southern New England. For instance, I noticed Worcester, Massachusetts had at least 11 consecutive hours of freezing rain overnight. The roads must be horrible down there. 

It's the second time southern New England has had disruptive freezing rain this week. Albany, New York was mired in several hours of light freezing rain, too. 

Anyway, back to Vermont and the forecast:

TODAY. 

The mixed precipitation was moving out of southern Vermont early this morning. The north was just cold and dry, with temperatures near 20 or even a little below that.  Forecasters are insisting the cold air drainage in the Champlain Valley will end, and temperature will go back up to the low 40s by mid-afternoon. 

Those temperatures will be aided by a little sunshine north, especially near the Canadian border. More clouds will hang tough further south, keeping readings in the upper 30s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

An approaching warm front will set off some showers toward morning with increasing south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. We might once again have to deal with a little more freezing rain early tomorrow, mostly in valleys east of the Green Mountains. It'll only be a little; enough to make the roads a mess but will not come close to creating issues with trees and power lines. 

But any drips and drizzles of freezing rain will quickly go over to plain rain Saturday, which will trend toward just light, scattered showers at most during the day. Highs will reach near 50 west and in the 40s east late in the day. It'll also be windy, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

I'll remind you again that the thawing and strong winds will probably cause ice breakups on Lake Champlain, so I wouldn't venture out there Saturday, or any day after that. I don't want to see anyone disappearing into the distance on an ice floe drifting away. 

A very weak cold front will come through Saturday evening with more showers. There's an ever-so-slight chance you could hear a rumble of thunder, which would be a sign of spring. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

These will be the two nicest days of our warm up. It'll be in the 40s to near 50 Sunday. The day will start cloudy, but clear up in the afternoon. Monday should be the pick the week with highs in the 50s under sunshine. An April day in March. We'll take it!   

Between the warmth and a little bit of rain Saturday and those two days of warmth, we're still looking at ice breakups on the rivers, and the risk of ice jams, as we've been mentioning for days now.  

We're in for one hell of a mud season as temperatures will be above freezing from today through Wednesday. It might get near freezing in some areas on some nights, but that won't be enough to put a halt to the increasing mud. You need a hard freeze for that. 

Even worse, we had a cold winter, so the frost went down deep. The thawing won't easily be able to get past the frozen layer of soil beneath. Which means melt water and such on dirt roads won't be able to drain through the soil. It'll just add to the swampiness of what will inevitably become virtually impassable dirt roads. 

Yes, the frost heaves and pot holes are nasty on our paved roads and highways. That includes the road I live on. But I'm thanking my lucky stars I don't have to deal with a dirt road. Even my driveway is paved!

My condolences if you live on a dirt road. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

This is where we get into the potential changes. For the past few days, we've been assuming these two days would be warm, perhaps record warm. Including sunshine on Tuesday and showers and potential thunderstorms on Wednesday as a storm goes well to our north and drags a cold front through. 

But remember that cold high pressure to our north that made the Champlain Valley so chilly yesterday? Well, another one will set up in northern Quebec. It won't be as chilly as the current one. 

But, it's beginning to look like that chilly air in Quebec wants to squash everything south. So, Tuesday might still be mild, but not as warm as we thought it might be. I'm still not sure what temperatures will end up being on Tuesday. Be ready for anything between the upper 30s to low 60s until we can get that forecast pinned down better. 

And that storm that was supposed to go well to our north on Wednesday? It might end up going right over us. Or even to our south.  That means a cold rain or even a bunch of snow might end up falling. Or it might stay warm enough for a thawing rain. We truly don't know yet, and probably won't know until Monday or even Tuesday.    

This is a really fluid forecast.

As I said at the start of this post, it's March. It's a really unpredictable month. As Vermonters, nice weather is a lot of ask for this time of year. 

At least we'll have a few days of decent weather coming up. We'll take anything we can get.  

Weather Whiplash Brings Us From (Almost) Spring, To Arctic, To (Almost) Spring

Well, that's better!

Rime ice clings to trees on the Burlington, Vermont 
waterfront early Saturday.  Steam coming off the lake
during the intense cold wave Friday and Friday night
froze to trees and other objects along the lake shore. 

We're waking up to a much warmer morning today than we did yesterday, when everybody was in the teens and 20s below zero.  Twenty-four hours later, most of us were seeing temperatures in the teens and 20s above zero. 

The swings in temperatures have been pretty amazing and extremely. 

When the cold snap started, the temperature at Burlington fell from 24 degrees at midnight, at the start of February 3, to 14 below by 11 p.m. Friday.  That's a drop of 38 degrees in just 23 hours.

As the cold wave bottomed out, the temperature in Burlington hovered between 14 and 15 below from Friday evening through 7 a.m. Saturday. At 7 a.m. Saturday, just before sunrise, Burlington was still at 15 below. 

From there, the temperature rose and rose without interruption. by 6 a.m. this morning, it was 20 degrees in Burlington, a full 35 degrees hotter than 24 hours earlier. 

The temperature will continue to climb and will be above freezing this afternoon - probably in the mid and upper 30s.

I could be jinxing things, but I'm pretty sure we won't see anything as cold as we dealt with Friday and Saturday morning until at least next winter. 

The plunge in temperature was so abrupt, and coming after what has been an otherwise warm winter, caused a lot of weird things to happen. 

One of them is frost quakes. This happens when water logged soil or rocks freeze fast. Sometimes they'll crack and fracture when they freeze, and you get a rumble and a little tremor. It feels just like a little earthquake. 

Other people in Vermont described what sounded like gun shots in the woods. No, nobody was firing rifles to celebrate how gawd awful cold it was. The theory is sap in trees was flash freezing, expanding and causing wood in the trees to pop and break.

Don't worry. This almost definitely did not cause any substantial damage to any trees.

Besides the record lows in that Arctic blast that I described in yesterday's post, I found a few more.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang noted that the wind chill in Boston reached 39 below, the lowest wind chill since at least 1944. As noted yesterday, the record low temperature Saturday of 10 below in Boston was the coldest the city has seen since 1957.

Portland, Maine also had its lowest wind chill on record, at 45 below.

Nantucket's temperature got down to minus 3 which is an all time record low for them, for any date. 

A main reason why southern New England was able to establish these record lows was the rather unusual nature of this cold snap. Usually, the coldest temperatures in New England come in the winter when Arctic high pressure comes in when we have a snow cover.

A clear, calm night under these conditions allows temperatures to plummet.

But those clear, calm nights don't work as well in southern New England. There's usually not as much snow on the ground, and the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean modifies the cold.

This time, strong northwest winds drove unusually cold Arctic air southward, and that overwhelmed any influence from the ocean. These windy types of intense cold snaps are pretty rare, so this set of circumstances made this cold blast a record breaker.

Video: Aftermath of all the steam, steam devils and such on Burlington's waterfront. The steam froze to nearby trees and objects. Click on this link to view or on the image below if you see it.  

  

Don't Worry: Spring Returns To Vermont Today. It's Already Started

Hyacinth in my St. Albans, Vermont garden buried under
snow this morning. It should be freed from its icy prison
by this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 50s. 

Well, that was something.  

The past two days in Vermont were more wintry than a fair number of days were this past January. 

Trust me, though. It's ending. Now, actually. 

The worst of the cold air actually started to lose its grip on Vermont last evening.  

Places east of the Green Mountains finally rose a bit above freezing at sunset, at at time of day when temperatures would normally start to drop for the night. 

Last night was not nearly as cold as the night before. Many places in the Green Mountain State actually stayed a bit above freezing. That means there was no additional damage to garden plants, but that fact is a bit too little, too late. 

 It's too soon as of this morning to assess garden damage, at least where I am, as everything is still buried in snow.  Snow depth at my house in St Albans, was still three inches this morning. 

Plus, there hasn't been an opportunity for things to fully thaw out yet. but by afternoon, I'll be able to look and assess. The snow will be largely gone for me, and most of us by evening. At least those of us who live at relatively low elevations. 

Unlike the frigid February stuff we had to deal with Thursday, it'll get up into the 50s today. That's not super warm, but it's still well within the realm of what we should expect this time of year. Winds will still be gusty, but it definitely won't snow. 

Given the ongoing shift in the weather pattern toward a warmer one, finger crossed, I'm pretty sure snow for the season in Vermont is done, except maybe in the high elevations.

Final snowfall for 2020-21 will thus come in at 63.1 inches in Burlington,  which is 17.5 inches below normal.  It was a mild winter. And spring for that matter, with notable exceptions like the past two days. 

Tomorrow - Saturday - looks even better.  Most of us should get into the 60s by afternoon. Any lingering snow in shadows will disappear.  

A daffodil, defeated by two days of snow and subfreezing
cold, slumps and dies in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden this morning. Warmer days are ahead, though.

One frustrating thing I've noticed this spring is the only time we get any badly needed precipitation, it comes in the form of a cold storm that involves a bunch of snow.  This has happened three times this month, with snow on April 1, 15-16 and 21-22.

When it turns warmer, it dries out.  We can't seem to muster any warm rains. 

We still need a boatload of rain. The recent storms helped a little, but we need several inches of rain to erase lingering dryness.  As of yesterday's weekly report, the U.S. Drought Monitor still showed virtually all of Vermont still experiencing moderate drought. 

Lo and behold, now that it's warming up, the precipitation for us is shutting down again.  

Forecasts for rainfall with Sunday's expected storm system keep going lower and lower.  Early estimates were for nearly an inch.  It's beginning to look as if we'll be lucky to get a quarter inch. At least it will be rain, not snow, right?

Sunday and especially Monday will be chilly and raw, but again, not anything unusual for this time of year.  At least it will get up into the 50s by day.  

It'll warm up dramatically during the upcoming week.  We even have a shot of touching 80 degrees next Thursday.  

However, I don't see many chances of substantial rain coming up next week. And longer range forecasts look "meh" in the precipitation department. At least we won't have to deal with more snow, though.