False Spring Is Over In Vermont After A Weird Wednesday, Welcome Back To Winter. And March Winds

The loss of snow uncovered this messy look in one of my
perennial gardens, but it's too muddy to clean  up yet.
And now the weather will be too stormy and wintry
over the next week to do anything about it.
Patience is a virtue during early spring in Vermont

It's kind of windy and chilly out there this morning, and gray, with a few showers around. False spring is definitely over. 

Before we get into what's happening next, we have to talk about how weird yesterday's temperature were. 

In the morning, it took time for northern areas to warm up after that intrusion of chilly air that actually caused an ice storm up in southern Quebec  

At 9 a.m. it was 49 degrees in Rutland, with thunderstorms approaching. A short distance away in Middlebury it was just 32 degrees. 

As we went through the day Wednesday, the temperature ranges expanded. At 1 p.m., readings ranged from 36 degrees in Highgate to 63 in Bennington. Meanwhile, freezing rain continued all day up in Montreal. 

Then it got really weird.

 Last night, a tongue of very warm air was able to head up through western Vermont. Highs reached 69 in Bennington and 63 degrees in Burlington after dark. .

The warm air lingered in Vermont until a little after midnight. It was still 63 degrees in Burlington at about 1 a.m., which means even though today is chilly, we still tied the record high for the date. Meanwhile, while it was in the 60s across northern Vermont very early this morning,  it was still just 30 degrees with lingering freezing rain not so far away in Montreal. 

The warm air never really made it into eastern Vermont, either. It mostly stayed in the 40s there.

Rivers this morning are still running high after all that snowmelt and rain. Though the rain was mostly a little less than expected, which is good.  There could be some low lying roads under water today. If you see that, don't drive through it. Please turn around and find another way around. Nobody needs to be fishing you out of an inundated car today. There's enough problems out there as it is.

BACK TO REALITY

At 4 a.m. today in Bennington, it was still 65 degrees. By 9 a.m., it was 36 degrees and snowing.  Except for a brief warm excursion we might see on Monday, winter weather is back and will prevail for more than a week. 

It won't be the intense below zero cold we saw in early February. It's getting  late in the season for that. But spring weather can't last forever this time of year!  

Expect a lot of breezy to windy weather, too. The March reputation for wind is no myth. The burgeoning forces of spring compete with the lingering claws of winter, and that creates a lot of tight temperature contrasts and storms. 

Hence winds.

An unbelievably huge area of the northern United States was under a high wind warning this morning. Those high wind warnings extended from Washington State all the way to Minnesota and Iowa. Slightly lower level wind advisories ran further east into Pennsylvania and New York. 

For us in Vermont, we won't get the worst of the winds, but you'll feel the chill from the gusts those winds create. Temperatures with those gusty winds should stay in the 30s today. 

THE NEXT STORM

A storm coming in from the west is set to give us a mostly light snowfall Friday night into Saturday. Low elevations will get near to a little above freezing during this episode, so a lot of valleys might only get an inch of snow, or even a bit less. The Green Mountain chain can expect a few inches. 

It'll be kind of windy from the south ahead of the storm Friday and kind of windy from the west after th storm Saturday. 

A BIGGER STORM

A much larger storm is due Sunday and Monday. It's still forecast to develop in the central Plains Sunday and get stronger fast as it eventually moves northward through the eastern Great Lakes. 

For us, the early guess is some snow will develop Sunday then turn into a mix and then rain overnight Sunday. Specifics on ice, how much and when aren't quite available yet.

This storm is, however, going to be a windbag and another opportunity to have wild swings in temperatures. Strong south winds look like they'll boost us at least into the 50s and maybe low 60s amid the rain showers Monday.

Then, strong north winds will plunge us into the 20s by Tuesday, with some snow showers. 

I'll have more specifics on this storm in a couple days, as it could be a bit of a humdinger. 

Friday Morning Vermont Update: We're Still Getting Our Warm Spell, But Now There's Complications, Of Course!

The snow surrounding the shoveled paths to my shed
should disappear over the next few days. But will
it all come back later next week? Unfortunately,
that's possible. It's March in Vermont after all. 

Especially in March, forecasts of balmy weather in Vermont are often too good to be true. 

We're starting to see it with our upcoming warm spell. We'll still have some nice, mild days coming up. 

But trends are shortening the length of this spell of balmy weather.  And if these trends continue, some of us could end up right back where we started. 

Deep snow cover in the valleys will melt over the next few days, possibly only to be replaced at the end by a wet snowstorm. 

That's a worst-case scenario at this point, but preliminary forecasts for this coming Wednesday are changing. More on that in a bit, because we're getting ahead of ourselves.

COLD AIR DRAINAGE

Speaking of getting cheated out of warmth, that's what happened in parts of Vermont yesterday. We had a strange temperature set up. 

A few days ago, the forecasts for Thursday had highs in the low to mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Instead, it was only in the mid and upper 20s for the most part. 

That cold, dense, shallow layer of cold air hugging the ground from an Arctic air mass in Canada had no trouble draining down the Richelieu river valley into Vermont's Champlain Valley,

At around 4 p.m., it was 24 degrees in Highgate, 27 in Burlington and Montreal was at 19 degrees. All those stations had north winds of 15 to 25 mph. But the cold, dense air was shallow. It was still above freezing atop Mount Mansfield. And the cold air at least initially couldn't get past the Green Mountains. 

While it was so cold in the Champlain Valley, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, White River Junction and Springfield were all at either 46 or 47 degrees. It was just strange.

As forecast, rain, sleet, freezing rain and rain hit southern Vermont, but did not penetrate the cold air north. The worst of the weather was down in southern New England. For instance, I noticed Worcester, Massachusetts had at least 11 consecutive hours of freezing rain overnight. The roads must be horrible down there. 

It's the second time southern New England has had disruptive freezing rain this week. Albany, New York was mired in several hours of light freezing rain, too. 

Anyway, back to Vermont and the forecast:

TODAY. 

The mixed precipitation was moving out of southern Vermont early this morning. The north was just cold and dry, with temperatures near 20 or even a little below that.  Forecasters are insisting the cold air drainage in the Champlain Valley will end, and temperature will go back up to the low 40s by mid-afternoon. 

Those temperatures will be aided by a little sunshine north, especially near the Canadian border. More clouds will hang tough further south, keeping readings in the upper 30s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

An approaching warm front will set off some showers toward morning with increasing south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. We might once again have to deal with a little more freezing rain early tomorrow, mostly in valleys east of the Green Mountains. It'll only be a little; enough to make the roads a mess but will not come close to creating issues with trees and power lines. 

But any drips and drizzles of freezing rain will quickly go over to plain rain Saturday, which will trend toward just light, scattered showers at most during the day. Highs will reach near 50 west and in the 40s east late in the day. It'll also be windy, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

I'll remind you again that the thawing and strong winds will probably cause ice breakups on Lake Champlain, so I wouldn't venture out there Saturday, or any day after that. I don't want to see anyone disappearing into the distance on an ice floe drifting away. 

A very weak cold front will come through Saturday evening with more showers. There's an ever-so-slight chance you could hear a rumble of thunder, which would be a sign of spring. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

These will be the two nicest days of our warm up. It'll be in the 40s to near 50 Sunday. The day will start cloudy, but clear up in the afternoon. Monday should be the pick the week with highs in the 50s under sunshine. An April day in March. We'll take it!   

Between the warmth and a little bit of rain Saturday and those two days of warmth, we're still looking at ice breakups on the rivers, and the risk of ice jams, as we've been mentioning for days now.  

We're in for one hell of a mud season as temperatures will be above freezing from today through Wednesday. It might get near freezing in some areas on some nights, but that won't be enough to put a halt to the increasing mud. You need a hard freeze for that. 

Even worse, we had a cold winter, so the frost went down deep. The thawing won't easily be able to get past the frozen layer of soil beneath. Which means melt water and such on dirt roads won't be able to drain through the soil. It'll just add to the swampiness of what will inevitably become virtually impassable dirt roads. 

Yes, the frost heaves and pot holes are nasty on our paved roads and highways. That includes the road I live on. But I'm thanking my lucky stars I don't have to deal with a dirt road. Even my driveway is paved!

My condolences if you live on a dirt road. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

This is where we get into the potential changes. For the past few days, we've been assuming these two days would be warm, perhaps record warm. Including sunshine on Tuesday and showers and potential thunderstorms on Wednesday as a storm goes well to our north and drags a cold front through. 

But remember that cold high pressure to our north that made the Champlain Valley so chilly yesterday? Well, another one will set up in northern Quebec. It won't be as chilly as the current one. 

But, it's beginning to look like that chilly air in Quebec wants to squash everything south. So, Tuesday might still be mild, but not as warm as we thought it might be. I'm still not sure what temperatures will end up being on Tuesday. Be ready for anything between the upper 30s to low 60s until we can get that forecast pinned down better. 

And that storm that was supposed to go well to our north on Wednesday? It might end up going right over us. Or even to our south.  That means a cold rain or even a bunch of snow might end up falling. Or it might stay warm enough for a thawing rain. We truly don't know yet, and probably won't know until Monday or even Tuesday.    

This is a really fluid forecast.

As I said at the start of this post, it's March. It's a really unpredictable month. As Vermonters, nice weather is a lot of ask for this time of year. 

At least we'll have a few days of decent weather coming up. We'll take anything we can get.  

Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.

 

Loving And Fearing Early Springs: Season Comes Sooner, But Cold Snaps Loom

Although it doesn't look like much yet, one of my
perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont is way ahead of
schedule this warm spring. However, these early
bouts of warmth increase the risk of freeze damage later.

So far at least, it's yet another early spring here in northern Vermont. 

Like many recent springs,  things are way ahead of schedule, or at least the schedule as it used to be.  

This week here in northwest Vermont feels and looks like what the third week in April used to look like when I was a kid in the Green Mountain State.

On Wednesday, trees were budding in the sunny, warm breezes. The grass was starting to turn green, perennials in the gardens were up and growing rapidly.  Crocuses bloomed everywhere and some of the early daffodils showed flower buds already. 

The only negative thing was that black flies were starting to bother me a little, weeks ahead of schedule.

Actually that's not the only thing that bothered me about this early spring. The trend, anecdotally around here in Vermont and observed in much of the Northern Hemisphere is this: Climate change is creating early springs. Plants are greening up and blooming earlier than ever, at least in general.

However, brief but intense cold snaps are causing lots of crop and garden damage. And that's not to mention how dispiriting it is to watch your early gardens freeze to death.

Here in Vermont, there's no immediate sign of any looming cold snaps sharp enough to wreck spring, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.

These frigid spells have damaged gardens and such in the two previous premature springs, so chances are it will happen this year, too.

This kind of pattern has already happened elsewhere this spring, and in recent years.    

It had been a warm winter and spring across much of Europe, so plants, crops and fruit trees began blooming prematurely.

Then a blast of winter chill blew in this past weekend. 

They're still assessing the damage, but farmers and agricultural experts know it's extensive. Plum, apricot and cherry orchards in France have been damaged, as has many of its famed vineyards.  

France had its coldest April morning since 1947 with a low of 29.3 degrees. Record lows were also reported in Germany, Spain and Austria.

This is the second year in a row Europe suffered a harsh spring cold wave after a warm winter. 

As the Washington Post notes, last year's cold snap caused $2.4 billion in damage to French wine growers. Some vineyards lost 80 percent of their grapes.

The damage might not be as bad this year, because the cold hit earlier than in April, 2021. Buds and blooms were not as far along as they were during last year's freeze, so that could minimize the destruction. 

Sharp, destructive cold waves during otherwise warm springs seem to be becoming a thing. Says the Washington Post:

"Climate scientists are concerned that warming late winter and early spring temperatures are increasing the frequency of 'false springs' which spur earlier vegetation green-up before the threat has passed of frigid temperatures that can wipe out young, vulnerable plants."

In the Northeast, a cold shot in the final days of March trashed magnolia blooms, wilted some other early flowers and many have caused some orchard damage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic States

The Washington Post has other examples:

"A false spring in March, 2012 was followed by an April freeze that resulted in a half billion dollars in damage in Michigan. A false spring in 2017 and ensuing early April frost resulted in $2 billion in economic damage in the Southeast."

A 2019 study concluded that despite overall warming temperatures, some plant and crop species will paradoxically suffer a trend of increased frost damage due to more premature springs punctuated by quick freezes. 

The problem extends way past plants. Audubon.org notes that earlier, warmer springs prompt birds to migrate northward earlier than they once did. Some species of birds directly freeze to death if they go north, then encounter a sharp freeze.

Or, insects go dormant during the cold snap, so birds that feed on insects suffer or even die. Or, plants that are a food source for our avian friends die in a freeze after a false spring, so that causes issues. 

Audubon.org suggests adding bird feeders and water sources to your property to help the birds through our newly whacky springs.  By the way, animals might come out of hibernation of the late winter is like spring. Then they find out the plants they feed on were wiped out by an April freeze.

Or, blooms on plants like wild apple and various nut species freeze after a premature spell of warm weather, so animals are not able to find enough food during the subsequent autumn.

Then there are us humans.  There's the obvious toll if somebody's vineyard or apple orchard gets trashed by a spring frost after an early bout of record high temperatures. 

At least for me, this pattern of premature springs followed by damaging freezes is dispiriting.  I'm an avid gardener, and the familiar patterns of seasonal changes are important to me. Always have been. I'm a close observer of day to day changes in the natural world around me, and I can spend hours outdoors just marveling at how seasons unfold, especially spring. 

I'm rather neurodiverse, so forgive me for my indulgence there. As my husband always says, I love going outside and playing in the dirt. 

It actually feels soul crushing to watch some perennials die, say in a Mother's Day weekend freeze two years ago.  Last year, a very early spring led to an April 21-22 sharp freeze and snowstorm that destroyed wild apple blossoms near my house, smushed some of my daffodils, and worst of all, largely prevented my lilac bushes from blooming due to frost damage.

Even the joy of this year's early spring is tempered by the inevitable hard freeze I fear will come sometimes within the next month or so.

I realize those freezes were not exactly the end of the world for me, as I suffered no real monetary loss and my gardens ended up looking fine during the summer. But to have the exuberance of an early spring trashed by two days of winter cold is just one more small, but real example how climate change can mess with your mind.