Updates On Vermont's Very Soggy Saturday, The Return Of Summer, And "Phantom Hurricanes" That Might Not Be Entirely Phantom

National Weather Service forecast map for Saturday's
rain. Dark green indicates at least an inch of rain. Yellow
means at least 1.5 inches. 

A little more rain than expected fell in northwest Vermont Thursday. Not enough to make a difference, really, but some of us were surprised by brief heavier evening showers. But at least parts of the Champlain Valley were treated to a spectacular rainbow just before sunset. 

The rest of Vermont had very little rain yesterday, as expected,

Today is the calm before the next soggy storm. Most of us woke up to cloudy skies this morning. There were even a a few showers near the Canadian border. (It rained briefly here in St. Albans, Vermont shortly after 8 a.m. today).

But you will see more and more breaks in the overcast as the day wears on.  I suppose there could be a couple more showers, but they'd be light and isolated, No biggie.

SATURDAY:

Our soggy Saturday nor'easter is still on schedule. 

I mentioned in yesterday's post that the forecast track of the storm was "windshield wipering" back and forth between a track northward right along the New England coast, or more inland going northward across New Hampshire.

The forecasters yesterday were leaning slightly toward a more eastern track, though some models were still insisting on a more inland path.  An eastern path would have meant a little less rain in Vermont.

As of this morning, it's looking like the forecasts for the nor'easter to go right up through central New Hampshire on Saturday were the correct ones. 

That means expected rainfall totals in Vermont have gone back up. Right now - and this could still change a little - almost everybody in the Green Mountain State except maybe the immediate central and northern Champlain Valley will receive at least an inch of rain.

Cities like Burlington and St. Albans would still get a soaking with at least three quarters of an inch. Elsewhere in Vermont, some places will get an inch and a half, and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple spot clocked in at a little over two inches.

Flash flood guidance this morning says it would take 2 to 2.5 inches of rain within six hours to begin to produce flash flooding. However, it will probably take a good 12 hours or more tomorrow for even those few spots in Vermont to receive two inches of rain. 

So flooding is very unlikely in Vermont. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does put central and eastern Vermont  - along with most of New Hampshire and Maine -in a zone with a marginal risk of flooding on Saturday.  In this case, I think that just means there could be minor ponding on roads.

 Rivers and brooks and streams across Vermont will definitely rise and become swift again even if they don't go into flood stage. That means kayaking and such on them will be dangerous for at least a few days. Fishing enthusiasts should be careful not to fall in. 

Saturday's storm will add water to the already very damp Vermont soil, which could help set us up for flash flooding later if we get a lot of torrential thunderstorms in June.   Of course, we have no idea yet whether that will happen or not, so just put that on the back burner for now. 

SUMMER TREND

Sunday is June 1, the start of meteorological summer. For ease of record keeping, most climatologists regard summer as the period from June 1 through August 31,

As previously mentioned,  the first day of June will not feel like summer at all. Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 50s to near 60, breezy north winds and maybe a few light showers. Brrrrr!  

There could even be a little snow again atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire.  I think the summits of the Green Mountains might be just a wee bit too warm for snow on Sunday. But not by much.  

But don't worry! Summer is on its way. And soon. 

We'll start a sharp warming trend beginning Monday. By mid to late week, we're up in the 80s for afternoon highs, and you'll start to feel the humidity in the air.  We might also start to see summer time afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday, but that's less certain. 

PHANTOM HURRICANES

This morning's GFS (American) computer models
shows a powerful hurricane hitting the Gulf 
Coast on or around June 10. I virtually guarantee
this WON'T happen, but the models MIGHT
be sniffing out some possible tropical
activity in the Gulf of Caribbean toward
the middle of the month. We'll see. 

For the past several days, I've noticed the American computer model known as the GFS keeps indicating hurricanes popping up toward the end of its forecast range, usually two weeks in advance. 

Sometimes these forecast hurricanes are near Florida, other times in the Gulf of Mexico, sometimes near Texas, sometimes going up the East Coast, like yesterday morning's run. 

This morning it has a powerful hurricane hitting Biloxi Mississippi on June 10, then dumping another epic flood on Helene-ravaged North Carolina.

Relax. It's not going to happen.  These GFS "phantom hurricanes" is a quirk of the American computer modeling. In late May and June especially, it keeps coming up with these "phantom" hurricanes  in the final days of its two week predictions. 

Still, it's a reminder that the hurricane season official starts on Sunday. And since the model has been so consistently popping off hurricanes in recent model runs, it's an indication that the models might be sniffing out some sort of tropical storm development somewhere in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico around mid-June.

If a tropical storm forms - a big if - it's very likely it wouldn't be an enormous hurricane, like the cataclysmic Helene or Milton last year. But it's possible - not definite - we could see some sort of soggy tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane menace somewhere along the southern U.S. coast.

This sort of thing has happened before in June. In fact, Tropical Storm Agnes in June, 1972 ended up unleashing one of the worst floods and most deadly floods on record in much of Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia and Maryland.   There's no reason a damaging June tropical storm couldn't happen again.